 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Wednesday morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time we got the video earnings after the bell today markets picking things up in positive territory well we get some tough retail earnings man you check out Foot Locker down about 30% right now Peloton shares down about 30% as well Abercrombie and Fitch slightly in the positive but yeah you talk about extending some of the action that we saw yesterday right Dick's Sporting Goods etc and why not let's let's kick it off with some of the retailers we'll give our market wrap in a moment but boy there's your Foot Locker man now this is let's put it back to a short-term time frame that's a 10-minute chart we closed yesterday at about $23 we're down to 15 now what was interesting there is when we put this back on a four-hour chart that brings you back to the last earnings event pretty similar action man last earnings back in May we died from 42 you settle at 25 all we did was chop around at 25 for three months and boom just like that we're gonna open down $8 man that's more than a 30% acceleration on Foot Locker we will get into some of the numbers in a moment you jump over to Peloton shares from 7 bucks to 5 that's a 30% hit to and we are gonna open at $5 well below the lows that we had back there in May and where do we got to go man wow look at this that's yeah you're below everything on Peloton are you below everything you are below everything on Peloton now you're gonna gap dramatically lower you could think you were coming into these earnings with your back against the wall man and you were but Peloton that opened down 30% posting a wider than expected loss falling sales due to a bike recall out there all right and so we got some match let's see how Dixie strained yesterday after their demise boy quite a haircut yesterday and we're gonna lose about $2 today with more retail suffering as Dix was just trained at 150 and we're trained at 110 just like that Macy's trades lower what it's a room it's a remarkable one now I mentioned that Abercrombie and Fitch to the flip side they're trading up almost 20% so we'll get into those numbers but we got some retail action this morning and let's check in on the video the video shares they trade lower yesterday you know you probably had some profit taken man if you if you if you got into this action on Friday or even got into the action on Monday you opened on Tuesday with about a $30 profit if you got in 450 if you got in a 430 right lots of profits built into this some profit taking the day ahead of earnings today we come into things and we're up by about $2 on the video shares now markets S&P's going back a little bit big picture we put this thing on an hourly this brings us back to the recent highs of 46 34 I'm gonna jump around to a daily real quick to give you some context market runs higher from March at a price tag of about 3,800 and change we run up to 46 34 now I'm gonna zoom in on that 46 34 and we got a little downtrend channel man where these upper boundary lines and lower boundary lines exactly mash up lineup maybe that's anyone's guess you could probably make the case that this one maybe as we make some new highs the linear regression could push this possibly a little bit higher on the bottom side I think that's somewhat akin to where you put that linear regression best fit line on the bottom but as you can see critical area as we're at the upper bound and every time we've kind of got to the upper the lower the upper the lower we've seen reversals there we're coming into Jackson Hole in about 48 hours from right now but we got to get over Nvidia earnings but nonetheless I thought I'd mention it as we're at a pretty critical area here you look at where we are on this chart within a few points in the S&P we're gonna break above we're gonna break below we get the opening bell coming up in 20 minutes NASDAQ 100 pretty similar action I had these on there if we extend it to the right got a little bit above there maybe you're looking for a bounce if you're on the bullish side as that channel line brings it down to about 14,868 if you're gonna test that channel in the NASDAQ but all the markets in the positive this morning you get the Dow up by 46 right now let's put it back to a 10 minute chart we're up by 46 but boy we're pretty close to the lows right you back it up to the lows of Friday you back it up to the lows of Monday you back it up to the lows of Tuesday and that's where we just were coming into the opening bell in the Dow at 34,400 we'll call it and you get the Russell up by three this morning crude continue into trade lower 78 11 in that crude contract we're gonna talk to our man Teddy keg stat Tiger 4x report we talked to Teddy every Wednesday at 40 past the hour we'll talk some 4x we'll talk some commodities we always talk a little bit of crude as well quite the pullback on crude and we are right at the 382 of the run we've had higher from 67 bucks up to 85 we're trading at 78 we'll get some action and see what Teddy thinks that crude contract coming up at 40 past the hour go contract catching a little bit of a bid this morning we put it back to a 10 minute gold up about $9 $8 on the session we dive lower yesterday and we haven't gotten to the main event and that is yields you talk about some movements man so we got a slight reprieve going on this morning as we get the tenure at 4.27 4.265 to be exact you trade down to the lows of price 128 what we get to 128 28 was the low-take yesterday you trade higher overnight we're getting some volatility today yet again but we get the tenure pushing 4.27% and we are 48 hours from Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole Wyoming coming up Friday 10 a.m. Eastern time I think it might be 10 05 a.m. Eastern time sure to get lots of coverage the market will be anticipating that to say the least right so we got yields we got higher price lower yield slightly today you jump over to the dollar index and we still got strength though we're pushing 104 right so pretty remarkable and you check out the dollar we back this up even a little bit further and yeah pretty remarkable as I've talked about this week you got that entire move back from where it was on July 5th the dollar at about 103 5 you trade down to 99 57 and you are now back above where we were coming into that in the end of June beginning at July as the dollar continues to rise we got higher yields in the US and we'll talk to Teddy about all this stuff dollar strength and pushing 104 this morning we'll see how the market handles that as you get the S&Ps up by 10 all right let's jump around let's kick it off with the video the video earnings are high stakes event for AI crazed markets we'll talk to our man Kevin Hicks from the Schwab network fast market coming up at the next break and yeah Kevin was talking about yesterday right the video is not the only stock that may move today man you talk about the AI crazed markets what are you talking about Microsoft Google Apple many others out there as well of course commentary on AI will set the tone for the broader stock market analysts say chip makers still cheap after tripling this year boy they got a couple upgrades earlier this week right that was part of the reason you saw Nvidia really starting to run in terms of putting this back shorter term was it Friday or Monday I think was Monday maybe Friday they got some revisions to the price tags somebody put them at 680 someone put them at 780 you're only trading at 460 and what was remarkable here is that you saw the first really talk of this when we were back on August 14th saying hey this is not a bad buy at 400 you were just at 480 and boom just like that yesterday we opened at all-time highs so we got some volatility man you jump over to the analyze tab on the thinkorswim platform and you got about a 10% move you want some premium folks $45 of expected move in either direction on the video shares this morning for a $450 equity and yeah you take a look at where we are right there you want action through Friday you're talking about about $50 of volatility let's open it up the August 25th options okay you want to buy a call you think this thing's going higher you want to buy a call you're paying about $25 for a call that's pretty much at the money which means you're going to get a 5% move just to get your money back there is some volatility and rightfully so built into this equity as we get their numbers after the bill going to be interesting to see where we go today we got some mortgage numbers we'll talk about when we get back as well not surprising but with higher rates got some low applications mortgages in there stay tuned folks we get the S&P's up by 10 we get the NASDAQ up by 58 we get the DAO up by 49 and don't forget we'll talk about it we got our man Basil Chapman great day for a live webinar for his subscribers 90 minute webinar from 4 till 5 30 tonight we'll 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the green we got in the video earnings after the bell today we get some retail earnings taken in on the chin let's jump over to our man Kevin Hanks Kevin Hanks from the Schwab network fast market folks every day 12 noon Eastern time right here on Tiger TV your host Kevin Hanks Tom White the outstanding team at the Schwab network they break it all down and we got quite a day Kevin Hanks it's Nvidia earnings day good morning good morning Tommy O'Brien yeah we've been talking about this day for a couple weeks now and here it is and you know why it's important just look back to May 24th when they last reported earnings and look at the movement in the overall market look at the movement in individual stocks I mean Tommy think about this if you want to connect the dots to AI which Nvidia is the leader the clear leader in AI and other names that it will affect I'm making a list in the left column of my notes here it's taking up the whole column rich it could be Tesla Uber Apple Google alphabet Microsoft Amazon Meta Qualcomm IBM Intel Baidu you get it it keeps going and that's not even talking about the smaller companies where there could be dozens of them so this market will move off Nvidia's ability to find out can their growth catch up to their valuation because right now I've got their PE around high 230 237 238 their five-year average Tommy 73 so there's the problem with all the good news about Nvidia is what when it can are they good enough for the growth to catch up to the valuation Tommy yeah I can't wait to see what they come up with man is a great point I was pulling up some of the indices as you were talking about that the S&P of course had quite a run but you put the NASDAQ 100 May 24th on the thinkorswim platform almost 13,500 we got up to 16,000 so you're talking about 2,500 NASDAQ 100 points I had an article up here Kevin talking about the impact that of course all the magnificent seven stocks have had but you get the NASDAQ 100 index up 36% year to date the top five stocks pushing 23% of that 36 Nvidia the biggest one out there at almost 7% itself putting your company and you know a contribution so boy they're big numbers man we get to find out today after the bell I'm going to jump to retail earnings Kevin we have some winners and some losers but it seems like boy we got some lofty losers out there some big numbers footlocker Peloton yesterday was Dix what do you think of the general sentiment right now you know when you look at the economy of course but retail taking it on the chain especially some of those equities I know Abercrombie's hired today but boy 30% 20% some big numbers for retail yeah what amazed me Tommy is the moves is the percentage moves look at footlocker today it's going to be down 7.5 $8 here to start today that is a massive number and Dix you know yesterday that is an incredible move in some of these names but there but I think Tommy there's opportunities in trading some of these names now I wouldn't necessarily buy a footlocker but that doesn't mean I wouldn't buy Dix or night on some of this weakness because these businesses are not going to stay down Dix is way too popular I was in Dix right before school started the lines were like Christmas now do they have issues that they've got a result yes they do but they're still an incredibly popular product do I mean the fact going straight up I don't know I have no idea Tommy but wow that is a big correction in Dix Sporting Good and Nike in many ways doing the same thing because if you look at it Dix Sporting Good it's pretty much full of Nike products and Nike you know if you look at a three-year chart of Nike it's got a high of 179 it's now going to trade below $100 here to start today so incredible moves and the apparel industry and right winners and losers right ever crummy and pitch I mean needless to say that's not I'm not their target market but boy a nice comeback from them what they're proving is they can stay trendy as long as the supply chains stay open right they they continue to do good job so yeah a lot of winners and losers in retail Tommy you make it a lot of sense to me man because I love Dix they had a great Dix Sporting Goods at the Miranda Mall by us a big mall that's the malls even got a carousel in a Kevin so we go we bring the kids they got a cheesecake factory maybe they got a Bahama Breeze right they got a Dix Sporting Goods and you know what I love shopping for most in there it's some Nike stuff as you say it man they got some great Nike stuff not exactly cheap but I've been in there the last I think two three times in the last three four weeks and yeah not exactly cheap folks they got to pay for all that real estate they got but isn't that interesting Kevin they got a great selection Nike under armor all that stuff but I do love the Nike stuff they got in there and Foot Locker yeah I haven't been in there in a while so you put a difference and then different rich right different story man I haven't walked into an Abercrombie in a while used to love that place in college I know they're different different genre but doing well this morning well with that in mind Kevin we're coming into we got two days till Jackson Hole but we got some earnings as we talked about I know we got one main event going on today but what are you guys talking about on fast market coming up at 12 today man of course the whole show will be focused on NVIDIA life follows good presentation on or three and some of the discount retailers and then we'll look at snowflakes another name coming out with earnings after the bell today that's been kind of forgotten about so we'll look at the cybersecurity name so yeah NVIDIA dollar and snowflake today pretty awesome and as we wrap it up Kevin I jump over to the analyze tab for NVIDIA they got about a move of about forty five dollars for that market maker expected move up there for the listeners that haven't seen you talk about or explain it to us because that's quite a move for NVIDIA man forty five dollars probably rightfully so with the moves we're getting but could you tell the listeners Kevin real quick what that number means and what that's implying and how it's generated on the thinkorswim platform pretty cool on a day like today where we got forty five dollars from NVIDIA yeah when you open up the fingerswim platform and you look at that right column the applied valve right which covers date implied volatility that number goes higher and the expert goes up on that generated moving it so things happen and so what that does is it moves based on the implied volatility of the front it's not the answer but based on the implied valve field being it's implying a one-day move rough just under forty five dollars so answer the question it's actually part of the question answer will be when the actual stock makes a move and I can't wait we get to find out tonight man forty five dollars if we buy it volatility man boy you better be looking for quite a move paying that type of premium but as we see we've seen some moves this week Kevin I appreciate the time as always man on a busy morning we'll be watching fast market today and I'll talk to you tomorrow man have a great day Tommy you too folks check it out you heard it they're talking about three great stocks they're kicking it off with the video man and yeah as Kevin mentioned they'll be talking about more equities than just NVIDIA because this thing can really as we saw it was a great way that he described things going back to May twenty fourth right we've seen the run the video has had tough to miss that on the chart when you break out of their earnings but pretty remarkable when you look what it can do to the entire index right you go back to May twenty fourth there it is on the NASDAQ 100 folks we had a low of thirteen thousand five sixty six we traded up just shy of twenty five hundred points that's almost a twenty percent acceleration for the entire NASDAQ 100 index and as I mentioned to Kevin NVIDIA putting six point seven percent Microsoft almost five Apple and they're all gonna have action today Amazon as well stay tuned folks we're coming back for the opening bell we'll be right back attention traders and investors are you ready to elevate your game in the stock market on August twenty third join Basil Chapman the mastermind behind the renowned Chapman wave methodology and a subscriber exclusive 90 minute webinar from four to five thirty p.m. Eastern dive deep into the secrets of the nine fourteen moving average to code market turns and get a head start on the stock outlook for September and October the golden opportunity is free for all opening call subscribers and if you're not on board yet as a subscriber here's the deal new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee zero risks all rewards so what are you waiting for visit the front page of tfnn.com now and secure your spot tfnn educating investors currencies commodities and bond 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then hit watch Tiger TV that's tfnn.com then hit watch Tiger TV markets open you got the S&P catch and a lift by about 12 points to 44 11 right now as I mentioned pushing the upper boundary of potential channel line out there as we're trading at 44 11 25 all the markets in the positive Dow just above 15,000 right now excuse me Nasdaq 100 above 15,000 you have the Dow up 75 points trading at 34,000 417 let's check in on the video shares up a bit basically flat you got $45 let's see how they open when the options open here you jump over to $50 move now it's so interesting so what are we what we're just looking at right we're just looking at yesterday was about $45 priced in we got about $50 you're paying $53 of premium if you want action through Friday now what's so cool here is that you're paying $50 for the earnings is how this is calculated excuse me but you also get action through Jackson Hole and you might see some real action on Jackson Hole in the growth stocks depending on what chairman Paul does not sure he's going to come out and shock the market or anything but boy you could see some volatility around that speech Friday morning so keep in mind when you look at the exposure through the Friday options you're gaining exposure through Jackson Hole at the same time and we may see some volatility there but nonetheless we're talking about a $50 move and markets catch a lift you get a little bit of a pop there we're back to 461 sell off yesterday from 483 44 we've got an all-time high print the day before their earnings and yeah we'll see if they can do it again today all right let's check in on some of the companies with their numbers and yeah we talked about footlocker it was interesting Kevin couldn't agree with them more man that's in maybe we're in a similar facet of stage of life right as in not the average copy and fit stage nonetheless but it is interesting anecdotally okay myself I do enjoy the Nike section at footlocker tremendously and they have a bunch of great sections okay as I mentioned there's a great storage is not on the cheap side sometimes you can find that stuff a little bit cheaper at other places but nonetheless Nike living and dying with retail they're down 4% right now you jump over to Peloton okay Peloton they catch actually a lift on the open they're still down 23% let's take a look at these numbers real quick Peloton shares so they lost 68 cents versus 38 so that's always a big problem when you lose almost double what you're supposed to do they reported a net loss of 241 million dollars or 68 cents a share for the three month period compared with the loss of a buck 20 no 1.26 yeah that's when they were really taking it on the chin sales dropped to 642 million versus 678 now which that what they talk about in here is that they're a seasonal business nobody likes to buy expensive fitness equipment during the summer because people are too busy like your kids at home maybe you send the kids back to school that's a time that you have some time at home you buy a home fitness a piece of equipment maybe you're trapped in the winter right up in the northeast you buy a piece of fitness equipment so you can exercise in time etc and they even say here that they are a fitness company trying to get the exact quote but excuse me they're a seasonal company of course they're fitness company so this was always going to be the toughest quarter the slowdown exceeded our expectations through May and through the first three weeks of June as consumer spending shifted toward travel and experiences then eight weeks ago the trend reversed itself when we began to see a reacceleration in hardware sales they're trying to give some silverlight there now they have 3.08 million subscribers here's here's like the silver lining they got debt man they're trying to remanage revamp this company right now they're catching a bid here they are valued at a company that is valued you jump over the fundamentals this is Peloton we're talking about here at about two billion dollars to shy 1.9 billion dollars just shows how hard it is to build a billion I mean they get mocked all the time they have three million people paying on a subscription basis to use their subscription service outside of the bikes okay now their subscriptions declined by 29,000 that's basically flat when you're talking about 3.08 million what they're trying to do is they're trying to get into different areas in terms of a rental service selling refurbished bikes they're having some problems though okay look at the numbers they're talking about here they've been working to capture customers who don't have the thousands of dollars to splurge on the stationary bike or treadmill by offering a rental program and a certified refurbished option the rental service which launched in Germany has 48,000 subscribers and the refurbished line 6,500 sales that is nothing 6,500 sales I don't know if that's just in Germany or where it is but nonetheless they take quite a haircut they lose almost twice than they thought the only thing I'll say and I really have no Peloton okay I dive I have no Peloton they're saying it's seasonal maybe that's the low this is the all-time low for their stock and you're catching a little bit of a pop on the open so maybe I'm not the only one thinking that okay and listen folks there's a very real chance this stock goes to zero okay but if you're in a gambling mood and you want to hire a straight this is a seasonal business the summer is not the time that they sell fitness equipment because nobody's locking themselves inside during the summer okay you're hanging out with your kids you're doing some traveling this is going to be the tough quarter for them and you just hit an all-time low on that chart of five dollars and with that we've now bounced and you talk about percentages on small numbers we just bounced 10% from where we were nearly open right now at 560 we jump back to Foot Locker shares real quick they don't get a bounce man they're off 34% Nike down 3.6% we jump around to some of the fang stocks today ahead of NVIDIA Amazon shares are flat Microsoft up by three-quarters percent Apple there you go man Apple that's gonna carry the market when you got Apple up 1.1% we jump over to Tesla shares they trade a little bit lower off by about seven tenths percent all right let's talk about some of the other headlines we got out there let's talk about home purchase applications folks the mortgage rates 7.3% the highest since 2000 mortgage applications lowest since 1995 yeah rates hitting home buyers in a big way so the mortgage bankers Association index of home purchase applications quite a name fell 5% to 142 you check it out on the chart pretty interesting when you look where we were where we were coming into that bubble in 2008 where we went and we are back to where we were in 1995 look at this the 30 year fixed rate 7.5% 7.5% on a mortgage now listen I am well aware as many are they going back to the 80s we had a time when people were taking out 18% mortgages but guess what you an inflation raging okay so it's a very different time when you're paying 18% for a home which is an asset during a time of multi-generational inflation right during the 80s that's why you had that inflation has now calmed a bit okay we're not at 15 and 20% inflation we're at 4% inflation so you're still paying a 7.5% mortgage when you only get 4% growth right now we'll see where we go from there but these numbers are gonna keep coming and what's so interesting okay here's where I'll caution you is that we're gonna jump some of the home builders as we jump around here when ours basically flat today we take a look at these though as we've seen rates come back July 13th okay when I hit 133 we're at 116 yeah that's where you were July 13th okay things matter in terms of we've seen the 10 year trade from a price of 113 down to 109 rates have spiked up again and that actually might be building hitting the home builders this time they're the only supply in town so they'll be okay yeah alright folks we're coming back we're talking to our man Teddy keg stat we'll talk some dollar we'll talk some foreign currencies we'll talk some commodities crude oil and gold will be right back don't go away you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors the gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African Rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com bill the S&P 500 continue to climb for bull trades on US large cap stocks in either direction trade SPXL, SPUU or SPXS directions daily S&P 500 bull and bear leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a funds investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing a funds prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a funds prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments.com a funds prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC this program is brought to you by Vista Gold traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ folks we have the S&P's up by 13 right now NASDAQ 100 positive by 50 jump over that dollar index right now dollar index up 19 pennies 103 75 we got yields with some action let's jump over to our man Teddy cakes that folks you can read Teddy's Tiger Forex report every Monday he puts out new issues Monday morning you can also okay come on over to the services tab and Teddy did an outstanding webinar recently on candlestick patterns you can purchase that for $97 folks it's not a recurring subscription great 60 minute webinar with Teddy talking about some candlesticks and yeah we got yields rocking man Teddy cakes that good morning good morning Tommy boy so let's kick it off with yields what do you think of the action man we had the 10 year spiking almost recent highs what do you think of the action as we got higher yields coming into Jackson Hole this Friday Teddy well you know Monday we set a nice low in the 10 year in the bonds and yesterday we had a little bit of a nice little pullback and I think today the follow through we have a nice profit taken rally going on so yields are pulling back right now I don't I wouldn't read into it too much you know I mean especially when you look at the the slope of the trend going down right now for the 10 year and a 10 30 year do you think this I mean there's a lot of course you know talking heads myself included everyone a lot of discussion of course about where we go for rates right is there a new normalization kind of of the inflation that we might be accepting going forward maybe that contributes to a higher interest rate going forward big picture Teddy where do you kind of see these rates and I'm asking you the million dollar billion dollar question man but we're at some lofty levels right now and it seems like we're getting a little bit of a repricing here for higher rates I know you've been talking about higher but where do you see potentially because we're at what 4.3 4.35 we're pushing yesterday on the 10 year is there a level that you're looking for those maybe as we continue or where do you see things as we go three six months down the line I know that's really far man and we got a lot to go on but big picture do you try and envision that are we at some levels I know you're always putting out levels to your subscribers in the Tiger Forex report where do you see kind of the risk reward of these types of trades as we're pushing some pretty lofty levels on a yield at recent highs that's a great question I actually went on a golf trip this weekend with somebody from Merrill Lynch and also someone from a big real estate firm they asked asked the same question where do I see yields really going to and I told them honestly I think that by Easter between if you look at where they're at right now over the next I would say seven to eight months that probably yields are going to be every bit of one about one to one and a quarter percent higher now the reason I say that is that we've been in fantasy land at zero percent for a very very long time if we're going to have any type of economic stability ever again we need to have right now this should be like the floor for rates it's just a reality I mean when I was a child you know I mean mortgages were going off at you know I mean there was a high point at 18 19 percent was ridiculous but for 8 to 12 percent was normal for people with good credit and that's also for market stability the fact that we're at the levels right now is causing all this instability and it's one of the reasons why we have the problems we have right now it's also the reason why we have such a high debt load you know it's nice the higher our rates go and with the downgrades that are going for our treasury bonds you know what that means our credit ability to run up a tab is decreasing overall that is a good thing because we cannot keep doing what we're doing it's a fun it's a fundamental economic reality that you know we're starting to pay the price and we're gonna have to for a long time so I mean we can go back and push them down back to zero but all we're gonna do is make problems you know much much worse in the long run yeah I think we all learned if you had an economics class folks in high school or in college that you either consume or you save right Teddy and usually if you save you're supposed to be able to consume more in the future by saving and always interesting when we started getting negative interest rates how I wonder what teachers were doing there in that time when they were teaching the consume and save lesson and meanwhile somebody said well what happens when you get negative interest rates it said we save and then you get less in the future so what happens there I know so yields what do you think about the dollar Teddy if let's just say that we do get that scenario play out which is totally plausible man I agree with a lot of what you say we're at a different time 0% not coming back where do you see that hitting the dollar as right now a dollar index 103.60 about right now chopping around a bit compared to the move we've had in yields what do you see that doing potentially the dollar if that's where things play out well it's definitely strong it's bullish for the dollar now I wouldn't say that it's gonna make the dollar trending an extreme way over the next eight months I think you're gonna have a lot of divergence in markets you know a day like today is actually a perfect way to look at it we have yields that have come back over the past 24 hours trending nicely and we have look at the euro US dollars making new lows today the pound dollars making new lows the US dollar Swiss isn't going anywhere the US dollar yen you know it's getting kind of toppy but that's the one it's actually technically trading proper today because yields are going down oils also down the US dollar yen should actually come back you know and that's what it's doing the other currencies where there's all kinds of dollar strength I think it's a lot more because of the the fundamentals are going on over there the EU's economy is collapsing you know I mean like they're not looking good for the next two quarters there is no up tick up there's no forecast that even remotely makes things look good their economy is strained and the conflict that's going on in the Ukraine is only going to keep to keep on deteriorating that situation and especially once you know if we get Poland starts to get involved with this you know NATO is going to escalate things this is not going to help the European economy whatsoever you know and then you have the UK also that's in a really similar shape to their economy is imploding also you know so I think that it doesn't yields don't impact those two currencies right now and they're the biggest weight in the dollar index so the dollar index may be artificially held up over the course of the next eight months because of those those currencies themselves because I don't think their central banks can really do things just to help them out so much because it's not going to change the the fact that I mean you have two quarters now of the industrial complex of Germany just collapsing I mean and that's not look at that there's no forecast that things are going to get better over the next two to three quarters and if that does trend continues the euro US dollar is going to be under pressure I mean I can't see how the euro US dollar wouldn't be at parity by Christmas time the Easter time if that really pans out I know it sounds wild at parity when we were just at 112 but boy we were just at parity less than a year ago man things are crazy right how about crude everyone always starts to talk crude man I spilled my car up it was 70 bucks for the first time in a while and things are easing a bit even as I talked to you man we're getting quite a little drop-off right now as we got some action we got a 77 handle in the price of crude what do you think of the action crude as we're getting a little bit of a reprieve from the recent highs well in the tiger for support those people know that two weeks ago we had a cell signal and now we're actually down below our downside breakout level and we're close to our target for two dollars away I think oil can get down to around 76 something in the futures you know in the front month future sometime over the next couple of days possibly a duffling next week you know as we head into the Labor Day holiday and then I think it's going to kind of go sideways for a little bit you know I don't see I think that oil probably is setting a higher floor you know when that's what we're going to seek that out over the next couple of weeks and then probably get a bounce and then start going sideways you know I don't see it overall I'm still bullish the market I don't see any reason fundamental reason why things would go lower you know especially after I was just in Michigan and I found out how they're enforcing people with wells to cap their wells there most people don't know that they drill oil in Michigan but they do and they're the government the the actually the state is now mandating that people cap their wells so that's a big deal you know that continues there I know it no one thinks about Michigan but that's also more production that's going to be in our country it's going to decrease Teddy I appreciate it as always man have yourself a great weekend and we'll talk to you next week brother take care take care folks stay tuned we'll be right back hosted at discord TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the Tigers day available to all Tigers and Tigris is for just one dollar for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders in the Tigers then you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact 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see where we go from there and what do we got going on today folks we got our man Basil Chapman he is coming up next with the Tiger technicians hour and then Basil's taken a slight reprieve a slight break and then he's coming back at four o'clock for a 90 minute subscriber webinar folks the webinar is free for opening calls subscribers if you're only an opening call subscriber you don't have to do anything you can attend that webinar in our discord server at four o'clock today right after my dad's program if you've never signed up for Basil's webinar newsletter folks the opening call great time to do it you get a 30-day money back guarantee you gain access to his newsletter which is outstanding in its own right you gain access to the webinar tonight 90 minutes it will be archived okay and you also gain access though to a plethora of archive webinars and I just pull them up so this is the subscriber section of the opening call one part of it okay that has to do with archive webinars and just a quick glimpse folks you can go as far back as you want to hang with Basil now he's got a webinar in there he did in May he's got a webinar in there he did last year he's got about 10 or 12 webinars folks all right so over the course of the month you can dabble in these you can take advantage of them the one he's doing tonight will be archived as well and not only that folks Basil puts out our long videos basically every weekend and again just a glimpse this is the one he put out Friday night an hour and one minute he has basically webinars every single week that he puts out for subscribers in terms of our long videos going over the market you get all of that when you sign up for Basil Chapman's opening call folks check it out sign up get in there today for till 530 I'm going to be in there talking about the power of the 914 moving average other indicators on balance volume how to choose where the market may be turning and Basil had some great pegs of the market so that's out the highs get in there and find out how he did it folks it's this market charge is higher yet again thanks for starting your day off with me folks stay tuned our man Basil is up next have a great one we'll talk to you tomorrow folks