 Fel y cyfnod am ddod y maen nhw'n newid gyda'r cyffwerd. Fionna, yna'n gweithio ar hyn. Ddiolch yn fawr. Fel ddigon nhw'n fawr? Rydym yn ddod yn ddod a'n fawr, ddweud i chi i'ch gwybod yma. Mae'n gwybod i gyd yn fawr o'r bryd, ac yn ddweud ei wneud fel hynny. Mae'n ddiolch yn gwirionedd mewn cyflifoedd yn cyfnodol. אזdo I had asked Andrew's night celebration last night and also there was commemeration of Ireland's poet Patrick Kavanaugh I had the opportunity to share a very precious cultural moment as the poets of Ireland stood in line yesterday. So I'm delighted to have been invited to finish my visit at the Institute of International and European Affairs to speak on Brexit, the view from Scotland. It's a pleasure to be back here again at one of Ireland's most prestigious think tanks. I might not share Cavarnus Dryden's views of the Fourth Estate. I quote, you are full of enthusiasm for the eternal verities. Life is worth living and, out of sinful curiosity, you open a newspaper, you are disillusioned, and you are wrecked." Felly mae'n gwybod i'r dweud o'r ddau o'r ddau cyfnodol, ond rwy'n gweithio i'r ddau'r ddau, sy'n gweithio i'r ffrenwyr, a i'n ddau'r ddau i'r ddau, yn ymddiwch yn Ymddiwyr 2014, yn ddweud o'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau. A ddod o'r ddau'r ddau'r ddau, was on the prospect of further constitutional reform in Scotland. I also touched then upon Scotland's relationship within the European Union with Scotland, keen to be an active partner in the EU and to other member states. You can imagine therefore how dismayed I am to be here just over three years later to discuss the impact on Scotland of the UK's decision to leave. Scotland was told that staying in the UK was the best way to stay in Europe. The people of Scotland have been misled too many times and too often, but that false promise was one of the worst of all. So I'm looking forward to answering your questions later, but first of all I'll lay out the Scottish Government's view on Brexit, the process so far, reflecting on the Irish dimension to the negotiations and look at Scottish-Irish relations in the wider context of all this change. And as the Institute of course is also focused on wider international affairs, I will also speak more broadly on Scotland's place in the world as all of this unfolds. So to turn to Brexit, the immediate questions are where are we now, how have we got here and what happens next. Although I think MD with a crystal ball, the myths and the glays that are within that is the most unpredictable times I think we find ourselves in. So back in June 2016 the UK voted to leave the European Union and the UK government has therefore now committed us to leaving the EU. But in stark contrast with this at a UK level, the people of Scotland voted emphatically to remain within the European Union by 62% to 38%. And this now places Scotland like our near neighbours in Northern Ireland into a situation which our people did not want. As a country we chose to remain a full member of the EU but face being taken out against our will. So in this challenging context and over the 18 months since, the Scottish government has been working with a clear mandate from the Scottish people and with the support of the Scottish Parliament to protect Scotland's future relationship with the EU. We've made our position clear since we want to remain a full member of the EU but believe that if the UK is determined to leave the EU it should remain a member of the single market and the customs union to help mitigate some of the worst effects Brexit will have both on our economy and our way of life. That is a compromise position put forward by the Scottish government in the document Scotland's Place in Europe when it was published in December last year and we routine that position today. And the Scottish government has tried to be reasonable, constructive and prepared to compromise but I would warn that there are still political forces at play in Westminster who do not want to compromise and there still remains a no deal risk which would be catastrophic for all of us. We know from businesses in Scotland that a hard Brexit will cause serious and long-term economic damage. For Scotland that is out of the single market. The EU is our largest single market for our international exports. It's worth £12.3 billion in 2015 and that was actually an increase of £520 million on 2014. By 2030 the effects of Brexit could cost our economy around £11 billion a year. Tax revenue projected to be between £1.7 billion and £3.7 billion lower than if Brexit did not take place. Furthermore the Fraser Valander Institute reported that leaving the EU single market could cost the Scottish economy up to 80,000 jobs and see real wages drop by £2,000 a year. So these issues are further compounded by the threat to citizens' rights of freedom of movement of people in which the UK government still has not provided sufficient clarity but we obviously await announcements in order of the phase one final negotiations. Our First Minister has been clear from the outset on the issue of EU citizens speaking the morning after the referendum result, the First Minister of Scotland sent out a clear message that EU citizens living, working and contributing to Scottish life continue to be welcome and Scotland is their home. Their lives should not be used as a bargaining chip by the UK government. As of the latest census, there were over 22,000 Irish citizens living, working and studying in Scotland with over 1,800 Irish students at Scottish universities and obviously there are particularities about the Irish position. Quite aside from the invaluable contribution EU citizens make to the social fabric of our country, the work of nurses, doctors in the NHS, teachers in our schools, researchers in our universities, they also make a significant economic contribution and we probably, unlike other parts of the UK, are prepared and are setting out the economic benefits of migration and movement of peoples within our nation. New economic modelling demonstrates that EU citizens contribute an average of 34,000 pounds for each to Scotland's GDP, a total of 4.42 billion pounds per year and furthermore projections show that all of Scotland's population growth over the next 25 years will come from migration. So ending freedom of movement of people will therefore have a negative impact on individuals, families, our economy and our society as a whole. But it is far more than just the economy, the currency of ideas and freedom of movement ferments a free-flowing exchange of people and perspective and its value far transcends that of the basic economic arguments of GDP. So when we look at this in the round, all of it means that a hard Brexit would substantially threaten the UK and Scottish culture, society and its economy and it's therefore crucial that we stay in the single market and customs union from our perspective. And as you will have seen, the UK government and its handling of the negotiations have been chaotic at best. Its relations with the devolved administrations in the UK throughout the process has left a lot to be desired and the UK government must adopt a more inclusive approach with the Brexit negotiations opened up to more parties and to all constituents parts of the United Kingdom. As a result, we continue to press the UK government to agree a means by which the Scottish government can play a direct and representative role within the UK's negotiations within the EU. And this is important because the devolved administrations clearly have different opinions on how the negotiations should be handled, including the three key issues at present of the financial settlement system's rights and the Irish border issue which I'll return to. When the Prime Minister came to Scotland in her first official visit in July 2016, she promised that Scotland and the devolved administrations would be consulted regularly. A joint ministerial committee on EU negotiations, it's called the GMCEN for short, was established and its remit was to seek to agree a UK position and oversee the negotiations. The absence of a functioning political executive in the north is difficult in many obvious ways but having an executive up and running as soon as possible would be of great help in overseeing the negotiations across the UK. During the course of this year, there has been an eight month hiatus from February to October when meetings of the GMCEN did not take place. We have worked hard to resolve this with the UK going forward and we hope that the GMCEN can be utilised in the spirit for which it was created. That is for regular and genuine engagement between the UK government and the devolved administrations. I have to say that so far we have got some concerns about the process. But yesterday, and as part of, I think, of more recent developments, our Deputy First Minister and Brexit Minister met First Secretary Damian Green and Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mandel. These talks were constructive in developing UK frameworks on areas such as agriculture, but we still have no agreement yet on the EU withdrawal bill itself. This is important not only for Brexit negotiations but also for what happens after. And this is an issue about standards, regulatory equivalents, et cetera. The system of devolution for Scotland rests on a very clear principle. It is that everything not specifically reserved to the Westminster Parliament is devolved. The EU withdrawal bill that is currently being discussed in the House of Commons and the House of Lords and in negotiation with the Scottish government turns that principle on its head. The bill means all the powers, whether devolved to Scotland or reserved to Westminster, which are currently exercised at EU level, are to return to Westminster. And it will be for Westminster to decide what to do with them. Therefore, as drafted, the EU withdrawal bill will mean Westminster taking control of devolved policy areas, such as agriculture, fishing, the environment for the first time. It overturns the hard-won devolution settlement, voted for overwhelmingly by the people of Scotland 20 years ago. And in our eyes, it represents little more than a power grab by the UK government curtailing devolution and assigning to Westminster responsibilities for matters currently covered by EU law in devolved areas. And we're not alone, in this view, on introduction of the EU withdrawal bill, our First Minister and the First Minister of Wales made a joint statement setting out their position. As such, they've been working closely with us to publish amendments, which, if made, would enable us to recommend consent to the Scottish Parliament. And as thing stands, however, unless there are significant changes, we will not recommend that the Scottish Parliament gives its consent to the bill, which would force us into uncharted political territory and undoubtedly has the potential to lead to a constitutional crisis. We hope the UK comes to its senses and works with the devolved administrations to resolve the issues at hand. We are very conscious of the need to make sure that there is a body of law to ensure that EU standards and trading can continue. Returning now to the negotiations, overall, we have now had six rounds of the UK-EU negotiations. On Monday, the Prime Minister will meet the President of the European Commission in an attempt to break the deadlock, and that situation is now urgent. So for many businesses in Scotland, the time is ticking. We are at a one-minute-to-midnight scenario. They're needing clarity in the decisions that they want and they need to make. So that means agreement needs to be reached on the divorce issues. It means the UK accepting a steady state transition inside the Single Market and Customs Union, and then we can move on to the future relationship. A relationship, which in our view should mean that the UK should stay in the Single Market and Customs Union on a permanent basis. If we now turn to the Irish dimension of the negotiations, it is the duty of our government to protect the interests and represent the will of the Scottish people. But it is important to stress that we recognise that Brexit will not just affect the people of the UK, and there are very clear and very stark implications for the people of Ireland and across Europe more broadly. And it's absolutely vital that we strive to understand this as negotiations progress. So I can reassure you that Scotland understands the unique position Ireland finds itself in as a result of Brexit. As the only European country to share a land border with the UK, you are uniquely exposed and have a national interest to protect that have no parallel. I also want to reiterate that the Scottish government not only understands the unique nature of the Irish dimension, but also our position that there should be no border on the island of Ireland and that the Good Friday Agreement has to be protected in its entirety as the foundation for peace, stability and the continuation of North-South relations on this island. And the Scottish government will continue to stress these principles in our discussion with the UK government. A point that is apparently lost on far too many people in the UK is that the Irish border is not just an economic boundary. It represents so much more to anyone touched by the recent history of this island. The lifting of border controls aided hugely by membership of the EU in the single market signified progress and moved towards parity of esteem, increased equality and the hope for a better, more stable and more prosperous future. Brexit must not be allowed to jeopardise that. And the Scottish government will do our utmost to press this point with the Irish Kingdom government. Indeed, when Tisha recently met our First Minister during her trip to Dublin in October, they found common ground on many issues. I've been amazed that some of the rhetoric on Ireland coming from the more hardline Brexiteers in the UK and I assure you that such language is deprecated by everyone in the Scottish government. So where does this leave Scottish Irish relations? Well, firstly, I believe it's important to say that the Scottish government views the relationship with Ireland as one of our most strategically important international partnerships. There is no small part attributed to our shared culture, history and values, whether it is through the ties of Kiss and Kin created by the historic environment of our peoples across our islands or our shared Celtic traditions, we have so much in common and already formidable shared platform for which to build. Yesterday in Dublin, I marked Andrew's Day, the national day of the patron seat of Scotland, with a group many of whom are Scots living and contributing to Irish society in a range of ways. It was a really good party, folks. We know how to party in Scotland. Yesterday, I spoke with Heather Humphries, the then Minister for Arts, Heritage and the Gailtac Affairs and the Irish government. Now, I might add that I was due to meet Heather Humphries in Agnes Burns' cottage up in Llyw. The connection there, Agnes Burns was the sister of Robert Burns, our national poet, who was born in the village to where I grew up. So, we were also then jointly going to proceed to the Patrick Havner event. But obviously, something got in the way of that. So, events, events and politics. So, obviously, with the reshuffle, but I had a very good conversation with Heather and I wish her well as she proceeds into her new role. And as a culture minister, can I say, I think it's very helpful to have somebody in the business brief that has had that previous experience of culture and creativity. And I'm sure she will do well in that post. So, we've agreed that in my discussions with the Irish government that continued that there is a positive share agenda that we can take forward in our cultural relationship between our countries. So, I'm especially pleased that Ireland is a special partner country at the Celtic Connections 2018 Festival in Glasgow in its 24th anniversary year. And the Celtic Connections are working in partnership with Culture Island to present a fantastic programme. So, if you are in Scotland, please come to Glasgow in January and February. That would be fantastic. From an economic perspective, our shared investments and interests continue to develop. Ireland is already Scotland's sixth largest export market and they're already more than 100 Irish companies invested in Scotland. These companies employ approximately 6,300 people across the country and contribute turnover to the Scottish economy of £3 billion. That's no small sum. Meanwhile, Scottish companies continue to operate and invest in Ireland, SSC in the energy sector, William Grant and Sons who are in the Tullamore, who own the Tullamore distillery. But we can do more. So, we can increase our exports and investments between and across our markets. And I believe that collaboration as well as competition can be the keynote of our economic relationship. When the First Minister of Scotland spoke at the Dublin chambers of commerce annual dinner in October, she spoke of the opportunities ahead for both Ireland and Scotland to move forward together with a shared sense of enlightened self-interest. And we believe that there is limitless potential for the economies of Ireland, the north and Scotland to become even more closely bound along a Celtic business corridor, forging ahead with that sense of shared interest in the years ahead. The work on going across our financial services sector led by the Scottish Irish Finance Initiative to examine the potential for collaboration on emerging technologies, to work together to plug gaps in skills and capabilities, and the development of new supply chains is a great example of that enlightened self-interest in action. My colleague Derek Mackay, our finance minister, attended a successful conference on this theme in mid-October. It was hosted by PWC in their Dublin headquarters, and I look forward to the return leg of that event, again hosted by PWC in Edinburgh in early 2018. And to which I hope we will be welcoming the Irish Minister for Financial Services, Michael Darcy. So at a political level, our bilateral relationship continues to strengthen and will not be undermined by Brexit. The Scottish Government Innovation and Investment Hub in Dublin, led by John Webster, and his team is beginning to reap dividends and helps to support increased engagement between our countries by identifying the right opportunities, not least through facilitating the meetings. The one which I had this morning with Simon Coffrey, your Minister for Foreign Affairs, to address Brexit and our respective international priorities. Indeed, high-level political engagement between our governments has taken on a regular rhythm. In October alone, there were four visits to Ireland by Scottish Government ministers, our First Minister, our Deputy First Minister, our Cabinet Secretary for Finance and our Lord Advocate. Last week, the Minister for UK Negotiations on Scotland's Place in Europe was in Dublin, and with my visit, that makes six in three months. So this engagement reflects the broad-based and diverse range of interests that make this relationship so important, and it will continue. So I'm delighted that Tisha will be making his first visit to Scotland next year, which will provide us with the opportunity to showcase Scotland and our vibrant modern economy to one of our key international partners. And that brings me onto what all this means for Scotland's place and our role in the wider world. Our economic strategy places internationalisation at its heart alongside innovation, investing in our people and inclusivity, and we have strong and consistent commitment to our international engagement. We're shortly to publish the Scottish Government's refreshed international framework and international policy statement documents, and these strategy documents will set out how our international work supports the government's central purpose of providing a more successful country with all to flourish with sustainable economic growth. Guiding that work in our international framework, we have four key strategic objectives to strengthen our external relationships, partnerships, roles and networks. Secondly, to build our reputation and international attractiveness, to boost our trade and investments. Thirdly, to enhance our global outlook to set the domestic conditions for success, and fourthly, to encourage engagement with the European Union and to protect Scotland's place in Europe. So we do this in many ways, for example, by promoting policy innovation and ambition in areas of devolved competence, whether it be through our world-leading ambition on climate change, as showcased by our First Minister during her recent visit to the United Nations negotiations in Bonn, or through taking substantive action to tackle social problems such as our decision to tackle the public health issues by introducing minimum unit pricing on alcohol upheld by the Supreme Court just two weeks ago. So we've also increased our global outreach by hosting international events such as the Arctic Circle Forum, which met last week in Edinburgh for the first time meeting in Scotland, and my announcement that Scotland will develop an Arctic strategy to help frame our extensive links with the region in a coherent framework. We're also committed to opening additional innovation and investment hubs, similar to the one that we have here in Dublin. We will be opening hubs in Paris and Berlin to go alongside Scottish Government offices in Washington, Beijing, Brussels and, of course, here. In drawing that to a close, therefore, I want to reaffirm that, irrespective of the outcome of Brexit, the Scottish Government will continue to work with our Irish counterparts to promote cultural, economic and social links between our countries. And as the Brexit negotiations progress, we'll continue to work towards Scotland and the UK retaining single market membership and customs union membership, and press the UK Government for involvement in the negotiations for all the devolved administrations, including Northern Islands. We think that's the only way that negotiations can be inclusive and respect the positions of the various constituent parts of the United Kingdom, and it will also ensure a more nuanced and balanced approach, we hope, which may help the United Kingdom understand some of the most important challenges immediately facing us post-Brexit. Ambitious, whether it's realizable, we will see, but it sets out our course of our action, the values that underpin it and our determination to make sure that Scotland is outward-looking internationalist and European. Finally, I'd like to reiterate that Scotland continues to grow our international presence to promote economic and cultural priorities internationally. And nowhere is this more important than in ensuring our links with Ireland remain strong. So I hope I've given you a sense of where Scotland stands. As I said, MD with a crystal ball, I think this is not something that can particularly be predicted as where we might land, but I hope I've given you a sense of the direction, the values and the importance that Scotland has on our international relationships and the great pleasure that I have, as always, in returning to Dublin, and I look forward to hearing your questions. Thank you. APPLAUSE