 Okay, traders, welcome to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Mullerly. Hopefully you can hear me and you can see my screen. You should see a Tick-Mill welcome screen if you can type a Y in the chat box and I'll know we are ready to go. Let me just get rid of some of these audio feeds. Okay. So once again, welcome and just quick bit of housekeeping before we get going here as I go through the charts and talk through the analysis. If you have any questions, please make a note of those. And at the end of today's session, I will open up a brief Q&A and cover off any questions you've got with respect to any of the charts. Or if you've got a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered. I'm happy to do that also. Moving on quickly, disclaimer, very important specifically for today's content, the views expressed here by me today are solely mine, they are not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick-Mill UK or Tick-Mill Europe Limited. For those that are here for the first time today, a brief introduction to myself. My name is Patrick Mullerly. After I graduated from university, I joined a city PLC consulting firm, and after a couple of years learning the ropes I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading on more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. After some beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down and basically give back all my gains and ultimately experience a significant six-figure hit to my personal capital. So this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I had to really stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and source out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years. The time during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy that suits my personality, I extensively back and forward tested this strategy and developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important watershed shift that occurred was I moved from being a highly goal orientated individual focused on financial to being a purely process orientated individual. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and have a professional trading mindset and understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investments and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades my focus on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've been managing investor capital through my managed account service. The performance data, as you can see on the screen is for that service. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentations on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring. I'm also resident market expert for tickmail providing daily analysis in the form of my daily market outlook and a daily trade setup that I'm tracking in the markets you can actually access these through the tickmail blog or you can sign up through the blog to have them delivered by email directly to your inbox. My other I guess passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand effects career swap.com. We offer traders not just the market developer market developments and understanding but we also offer funding to retail trading talent and effects career swap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in you having the opportunity to manage the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. And for those that are interested, you can see on the screen there there's a number you can call the trading desk in London, or you can drop an email to them and they will provide further information about what it is we are doing at effects career swap. Okay, so let's move into the charts and this week. Before I move into the, the actual chart analysis. I wanted to just briefly walk you through this new series that we're doing a tickmail with a daily Elliott wave analysis on the intraday timeframes predominantly on the four hour time frame and I just wanted to talk through what some of the, the chart annotations mean so that you can understand the concept behind what we're doing, and also how you can implement the information into your own trading. So for example, we have today's analysis here. This is on the euro dollar the four hour time frame. And I highlighted the potential that we completed a wave three high on the daily time frame so these, these numbers here are annotating what I believe to be the, the higher time frame the daily time frame wave structure that we're currently in. So if we're in a wave three, if we completed or potentially completed a wave three high, what we're anticipating is some corrective price action that will ultimately lead to a wave for low being put in place. And then what we're looking to do is trade with the trends and and trades looking for a wave five upside objectives. So once we've got this way through high in place. We then have the first leg of correction which subdivided into three, three waves and so we had an ABC pattern. We then completed another ABC, which gave us a potential WXY pattern in play. And once we've completed that high. So here the X wave high what what I'm ultimately looking for them was another three wave correction to the downside into what I refer to as the equality objective. Now the equality objective is measured using the trend base for extension tool. And simply what I'm looking for is once we have this swing high in place. It's either going to be a B or an X wave high. So I'm looking for the market to test and the quality objective versus either the, the W leg or the a leg if it's an ABC correction. And so that gives us a level to watch and for this for the purposes of this chart. It was this one 1845 so that's denoted here with the green arrow, which shows you where I perceive, or what I perceive the dominant trend to be in the market. So here we have the 161 extension of the of the X to Y leg or the B to C leg. And this 161 extension gives a level here of 11598, which I refer to as the PRC. Well PRC means potential reversal zone. And what that what the information that gives us is that if the market trades through the equality objective and ultimately then breaks the PRC the potential reversal zone. And that suggests that the current trend may be coming to a conclusion, and we could be moving into a new, a new phase of market development and a new trend. So the useful, why this is useful is that it gives us a point of invalidation for the, for the current thesis. So at the moment, my, my, my bias in terms of looking at the market and where I see the overall trend structure is to the upside. But if we, if price exceeds the PRC, then I will, I will then know that there is the potential trend has changed, and we could be looking at a new trend in the correction or a new trend in the opposite direction in this case to the downside. Now, once we tested, well, again, just in terms of trading information, some traders will actually enter positions at the strike of the equality level. Other traders will watch for price action to develop here to suggest that the buyers are are in agreement with these levels. And if we see buying come into the market with bullish reversal patterns, then we can set long positions. Other traders will use the, the actual whole zone here and subdivide it. You can do this by using the FIB retracement tool. So if this is where we anticipate, or if this is our reversal zone. So what you can look to do is you could enter an initial position at the 1845 and then add another position at the 50% of the, of this zone that we've highlighted the reversal zone or the action area. The next century will be at 1722. And then you would use a stop just below the PRC, because we know that if we trade through the PRC that there's a high probability that the trend has changed and the market is moving into a new phase. So these, this is, those are a couple of ways of, of using this information to, to enter positions to align yourself with the broader trends. The other way of using the, these levels is once we get a reaction from the level, then we can start to think about the new structure that should be developing. So if we have a C or a way for low in place, then what we could reasonably expect is that the market will put in a new impulse leg, which should be a one, two, three, four, five wave extension. And so one of the, one of the high probability, high probability entry levels is using the wave to pull back to enter long positions. So you want to be able to identify a five wave structure, which we can hear even on this, this four hour chart, because we can subdivide you could, or you can see here, we could easily see a one, two, three, four and five. So what we'd reasonably expect versus that's that structure there is that we would trade back into the 50 to 61% retracement zone to suggest that the wave to low is in place, and then we'd extend higher looking for wave three. Now in this instance today what I suggested in the video in the video analysis was that if we could get if we could break through the wave one high, I would be using that as confirmation that we had a wave two potential wave two in place, and prices should extend higher. In the video, I also said that if we don't get through that, that one 1990 area, then the invalidation level for this, for the, for this thesis, suggesting that this would be a way to low would be a breach of that way to low at this one 1880. So we can see prices came just shy of breaking that high, and we're now getting a deep pullback here could hold this trend line and have a very deep retracement here, hold trend line support and still move higher. So we're now at a one 1880 support level, then we need to think that we are going to exceed this currency wave low, and we probably going to test somewhere into the set one 1750 area, and then we reassess to see if we're going to put in a new impulse leg to the upside The important level to factor here and the one that you can really lean against is this is the PRC level, and currently that comes in around 116 for the euro. There's a couple of other charts, the dolly and here dolly and has traded into or exceeded its equality objective. And what I suggested here with the dolly and was that we had an ABC correction into this into this zone, and that it was subdividing into five wave patterns, and without getting a what I was looking for in terms of a opportunity to fade this move was a fifth wave completion, which burst if this is our way for low here at 10832 using an equality measure of wave one from the way for low. And that suggests we should at least test 10989, and I was watching the bearish reversal patterns there. Also, looking at momentum, we want to make sure we've got momentum divergence using that as an extra confirmation of a potential completion of this what this fifth wave into the wave C objective on the higher time frame, and then looking for a pullback. So we'll see how this one plays out we're still potentially in wave four here. So I'm looking for a 10989 test, then I'm looking for bearish reversal patterns and or sorry, and I also want to see this momentum divergence still in place to to give extra to give extra confirmation to the trade. Again, the alternative would be using the using the level strikes he would have entered one position at 10853 another 10965 and then you'd use a stop just above the PRC at around 11080. If that was how you decided to play the trade. We'll look at one other one because I did post this earlier in the swissie. So I was looking for an equality objective versus this wave be high way behind still valid we haven't exceeded it was seeing a bit of a reaction here at the moment the higher, but looking for 9185 so that was the ABC. I also had and I refer to this last week, symmetry swing support when I refer to symmetry swings what I'm talking about is this wave wave to swing here, overlaid against this high and I'll just show you using the bar pattern tool here so you can see exactly what I mean, I use the trend based extension tool to do the measure measurements myself, but you can see here that that would bring us down into this 92 level, and we've come just shy at the moment so I've used these these tools to build improvements we've also got the people retracement of the potential wave three here, 38.2% retracement, often that's where a wave, a wave four will, will develop at 9183 so you can see we've got a cluster of support here. We've gone from 22 to 9185 and what's for bullish reversal patterns there, and again we've got a PRC here at 9098 and ultimately looking for prices to trade higher into a wave five objective. So that's that gives you some additional information on how you can use these edit wave charts, they're going to be posting, and they're mainly going to post it on Tuesday, Wednesdays and Thursdays and hopefully they'll be able to track and see how how the price structure and wave structures developed. So that said let's let's jump into today's charts. One second guys. Okay, so we're going to start here with the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ has been the relative under performer of the equity indexes, and one of the main drivers behind this has been the idea that tech stocks did really well during the pandemic and as in the last stage of the pandemic on the basis that everybody was working from home and we were consuming and using more technology. We're all very familiar now with with the dreaded zoom calls, but now that we appear to be coming out of this of the pandemic and certainly in the US the recent program is is proving to be rapidly deployed and extensive and well received, and we have that huge stimulus in the US, then markets are now with the view that you know we're coming out of this, this lockdown scenario, and we're going to revert to, you know, going out to restaurants and bars, meeting people in person, business travel, etc. This is why we're seeing this relative underperformance from the NASDAQ we saw a three wave decline last week that can just shy of our equality objective. So what we were anticipating was if this was A, B, C, sorry, A, B, our C target was 12,094, we came just shy of there before, before seeing this pullback, but the pullback has moved straight into the 50 to 61.8% retracement of the decline. As you can see by these tails on this date on the daily timeframe here, we've got some supply in the market and certainly seeing a potential here for a bearish outside reversal pattern. We close through yesterday's loads here that I'm looking certainly for a test of this weekly range support down to 12,490. And from here buyers could step in and we could get a another corrective leg here, which would set up an A, B, C to the upside giving us 13,590 as the, as the target for the correction to complete. But if buyers don't step in in this zone, then I think we extend lower and we target a move down to test trend line support at the 17, sorry, 11,700 level. Obviously today's close is going to be pivotal if we close below yesterday's loads that will put in an outside reversal candle, setting up certainly a test of weekly range support. We don't find buyers here at the weekly range support, then watch for monthly range support and trend line support as the next downside tests. It's interesting to note and I highlighted this to the guys and the effects career swap trading team that at the beginning of last month we had a big bullish outside reversal candle and traded higher into the Fed meeting, which was which game was middle of the month last month. And from there we sold off this month at the beginning of the month we had a big bullish reversal we've traded higher right into the Fed meeting, and we're starting to roll over here today. It's going to be interesting to watch because this could, we could be looking at another leg to the downside certainly to get a test of the monthly pivot in terms of the S&P 500 here. A great note and this is something you really want to always paying attention to as we make new highs are the our momentum studies confirming the highs because if they're not that setting up divergence, and what diverges generally poor tens of correction or even a reversal in the market so S&P important to watch a close today below 3937 would be bearish certainly setting up a test of 3868. That's the dollar index, the dollar. So with the Fed last night, the Fed came out and were adamant that they would remain accommodated to markets through to at least to the end of 2023 into 2024, where we potentially see a rate hike that led to some weakness in the market but we've seen prices recover this morning on the basis and we'll look at the chart in a minute the 10 year yield has traded higher. And so whilst we find support at the these prior lows here at the 1172 area, there's the potential that we trade back up into this channel 1187. We really need to see a loss of those of those prior lows to set up a move down into the monthly pivot 1168. So for now, as we hold lows at the moment, we could see the dollar trade higher here into the top side of the channel again. The broader dollar index, this dollar index versus six currencies, whilst we hold lows at the moment, then there's the potential that we trade back into these highs at 9250. At this stage, we'd really need to trade through 9350 to see how to suggest we have more meaningful low in place for the dollar here at the moment whilst we hold below this 9250. And I still think we can see further downside consolidation in the dollar index. And this is the chart really that's driving most of this price action and this is the 10 year yield. And we're trading right into now potential resistance here at the 175 level. And if we buy a step in here, we could, sorry, sellers step in here buyers of the bonds sellers of yields. And we could see this trend channel support get tested, but some at the moment we are pushing higher and this is the market basically saying to the Fed that they don't buy this idea that rates are going to be raised until 2024. So we're going to see cost, at least cost push inflation based upon the stimulus that we're seeing in the US and how that's going to impact prices and inflation. So watching this level the 175 level in terms of yields here. If we break through there, then we should be testing 190 pretty quickly. God be weighed on. Obviously as we see, as we see the dollar extending here a bit. Now I suggested that in last week's session that we would trade up into this 1750 area 1760, and we could potentially see some weakness here and ultimately price extended down So we've got a downside target here is 1653, which is the equality objective versus this abc way below here so I'm watching for a test here 1653. And again a bearish reversal pattern potentially developing here in gold we need to see where we close tonight, but if we close at or below current levels, and that would be an outside reversal pattern setting up this test of this 1653. So it's going to be a very interesting area if we can get bullish reversal patterns here, and I'd certainly be looking at long positions in gold, ultimately looking for a test of 1800 to the upside crude oil. There's going to be some weakness here in crude what this is going to be a very interesting level is $61 a barrel level will be the third test of this internal trend line support. And if we can get down here and find support we've also got weekly range support. So reversal patterns here set long positions, ultimately looking for a test of 71 75 in terms of in terms of crude Bitcoin trading to new highs, but you can see we have triple divergence now and we're seeing a bit of weakness in Bitcoin. Let's see now get a quality move in terms of a the last correction lower. So we could see Bitcoin correct back into this 48,000 level for trying to base again to challenge the target here of 70,000 to the upside so pay attention again to this divergence. So it certainly weighed on prices post last weekend. Dolly one is is correcting higher here now so we could have a meaningful loan place in terms of this dollar you want. And this is based on that weekly chart and the weekly support coming at 640 level. So if we can hold, if we can hold current prices and trade higher. I'm looking for the next test here or the next upside objective being 656 in terms of dollar one. I'm looking for a move through 109 85 and a test then of this weekly range resistance 110 15 I think from there, we should. We could see the potential for a pullback in terms of dollar yen and certainly back into 108 would be an objective for me again watching the bearish reversal here to set short positions. Dollar Swiss. Big bullish reversal potentially coming in here. And if we get that then we can think that maybe the way for low is in place now for dollar Swiss, and we would be looking higher we could be making a move here to 94 50. We're going to be watching that close tonight. We've got the RSI stochastic back down below 20 reloading in terms of momentum to the upside euro we've just talked about. Had that bullish reversal yesterday eclipsing these the range of the prior three days looked good, but we come in week here this morning. I have to see where we close tonight but certainly if we've got to close back down through that 80 then 117 50 and even 117 20 the yearly pivots would be the next objectives on the downside if that's that's where we're going. Again, I'm watching this. We've tested up into this 161 this 130 35 area top of the channel and this is starting to look like we might be rolling over here. We've got some mental divergence so for me again watching for a close back through 129 sixties would be a shorting opportunity, certainly looking for 128 22 and the channel support. One we were talking about last week and it's between between really in terms of the equity indexes trades almost as a proxy, and we've seen when we see equity strength with tendency weakness in the euro Aussie. But when we see equity weakness we tend to see strengthening your strength in the euro Aussie, and that's what currently see a potential that we've got a double bottom and play here. But we might be trading higher again in terms of the euro Aussie so need to see where we close and again pay attention to the S&P and the NASDAQ and where they close with respect to the next phase for the euro Aussie. Stirling look bullish this morning but we've, we pulled back here now and so whilst we hold resistance at this 140 level, what's for a test of this. We've got trendline support we've also got weekly range support, and we have these prior highs over here the breakout point 13750, and you move into that 13750 area with bullish reversal patterns I think it's a great opportunity on the long side in terms of sterling. So we'll just have to see how we trade, or how the market responds when we get into this area sterling yen. So when I'm watching on the short side of that, and looking at this this morning, I've, you can see we've got some nice momentum divergence, we're trading into resistance here. And what I'm looking for now is a close below yesterday's lows to, to confirm that we have a potential high in place, and certainly then what we could see is thinking in terms of symmetry swing support so we're going to move back down into 14875. So you'd be thinking in terms of that being a way for low and another leg higher for a way five but certainly I think way three could be coming to conclusion here with all the divergence we're getting on these momentum studies so watch for a price confirmation there. Okay, look, look bullish this morning but we're seeing this roll over in line with the equity indexes, and a move back through 7699 would suggest a head and shoulders pattern, and we could be back looking at 75 at the 76 level pretty quickly. And all important with these daily candles is waiting for see where they close and get a lot of intraday noise that can be confusing so best to pay attention to the closes. Again, also of interest, because we can clearly see the potential here for a straw this in for you for a nice five way pattern to complete it. We've brought this off fifth wave here, and wave five comes with some nice divergence on our momentum study. So our eyes to cast it rolling over with momentum so again watching for bearish reversal patterns here in terms of this. Again, and I certainly think we get a test of trend line support back down to the 18135. So this one I'm really going to be watching over the coming sessions, especially if these equity markets start to see some weakness the Aussie yen trades in a heavy as a heavy proxy for equity risk so really want to to pay attention to that to this Aussie yen I think that's if you don't have the ability to trade the equity markets then certainly you can use the Aussie and as a proxy, and the pattern that's really nice and clear here in terms of the Aussie yen Kiwi. Similar story to the Aussie really being rejected from the underside of the trend line. The trend line that was prior support now acting as resistance, and we could be in for a bit more weakness here and certainly getting a retest of 71 level Kiwi yen similar to the story to the Aussie yen. It really acts as a risk proxy, and you can see actually, we've got a nice double top here in terms of the Kiwi yen, and certainly if we're going to close back through 78 handle, and I think we retest interim trend channel support and monthly at 77 level, but ultimately I'll be looking for a move to test the trend line support here so again, these double tops or these way five highs it's really important to make sure that we've got this nice momentum divergence in place to add an additional level of confirmation to the trade. So those are the pairs that I'm watching pay attention to these equity markets tonight and tomorrow. If we start to see we closes then certainly want to pay attention to the Aussie yen and the Kiwi yen as as great proxies for those risk markets and a nice way to trade them using using the FX pairs. Okay, are there any questions. Equally, if you don't have a question. If you type in and in the chat box that's just as helpful as that I know we are all on the same page and I've done a decent job of explaining explaining these charts to you. By us. Let's see. Hi by us. Do you have a microphone. Hello, Patrick. You hear me. Hi, can you hear me. Yeah, again. Great stuff. Nice to meet you. How are you doing. I'm good Patrick. Thank you. How are you? Very good indeed. Very good indeed. How can I help. So, I just wanted to ask you I had a little question from the course of the FX career shop. You were saying that in the elite wave theory, a low must be formed. In what time frame must this point below in the last 10 days in the last eight days. How do we. What time frame are you actually trading on. It's important first of all. It's important in the hour and the for our. Okay, so what you want to do is when you're thinking about a loathing in place, you want to pay attention to a couple of things one you want to stick to your trading time frame. Okay. So if you're, if as I'm, as I'm doing this work on taught I'm working on the for our time frame. So if I'm if I'm if my anticipation is that we're going to see a wave to learn in play, then more often than not what I'm what I'm looking for a couple of things one, I want to, it's great to see divergence so as we get down here is this way to low you can see we've got loads of divergence in terms of the momentum study. Yeah. So we've got this big bullish reaction. And what we've got priors that bullish reaction is what I could clearly term as a way, if this is one, two, three, four, and I believe this is five to complete way to then I ideally what I want to see is that way for high exceeded. So I've got the momentum between this low and that low, which is one, one, nice and easy way and I said the easy visual to suggest that we could have a low in place. We've got a big bullish outside reversal candle here. Yeah. Yeah. And then we exceed this prior high. So once once we've done that. And then some probabilities perspective I can think to myself, we've probably got a way to low in place there. Got it. Does that make sense. Yeah, yeah. And also does additional tools as well if we think about the the VWAP, you can also look for it has the VWAP flip green it has here, and then when we when we click this prior high, the higher timeframe VWAP also turns green. So that's a gain suggesting we have upside momentum. Does that make sense. Yeah, it does. Thanks very much. Thanks for the question bias. Thank you very much. Okay, if there aren't any other questions. I'll wrap this one up here like I say the elite wave updates will be Tuesday Wednesday Thursday. And I hope you follow along with us and hope you find them useful and we will we can be at the same time next week. Thanks very much and have a great weekend everyone.