 It's been an eventful week across the world with the United States and its antiques being at the center of some major news developments. It began, of course, with the balloon controversy, the bizarre balloon controversy where the US said a harmless Chinese balloon is spying. Then we saw there was a brutal earthquake in Syria and Turkey and US sanctions once again causing harm to people preventing the delivery of relief. But maybe one of the most important events this week was a report by the well-known investigative journalist Seymour Hirsch, who said that the United States and specifically President Joe Biden had sanctioned the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. The explosions took place in September 2022, of course, but the planning began way before. In fact, in December 2021, before the Russian attack on Ukraine began. Very interesting news article confirmed something a lot of people were saying. We'll be looking a bit more into this issue, into the article, into the claims in this episode of Mapping Fortlines, and we'll be joined by Praveen Purkayashta. So Praveen, Seymour Hirsch's article confirming what many people, including us at Mapping Fortlines, have inspected many months ago that the US was responsible for the sabotage. But of course, he's bringing in a lot more details about the planning of the operation, who he considers responsible, although, of course, other commentators have added some more details to it. But keeping Seymour Hirsch's article in mind, keeping the information in mind, you know, what exactly seems to have happened and why was the Nord Stream so important and what is it? Let's go to the last part that you asked, why was Nord Stream so important? I think if you look at this pipeline map, then you will see that different pipelines have gone. But given the fact that Germany is the largest user of natural gas, of course, are different routes, but through the pipeline it's been Germany, which is the biggest industrial power in Europe. So I think before we look at the Nord Stream and Seymour Hirsch article, let's look at the largest picture of the gas pipelines themselves. And here is the pipeline picture that we have. If you see it, then you will see that Germany was the largest consumer of gas because it is the biggest industrial power in Europe. But it's apart from Nord Stream 1 and 2, which is here, these are your Nord Stream 1 and 2. The pipelines that were coming is Yamal pipeline, for instance, it goes via Poland. Then of course, there's Ukrainian pipelines, there is a Turk Stream and so on, but that caters to really southern Europe, not so much Germany. So since these two were under different kinds of regimes who did not want gas to go to Germany or was trying to disrupt the flow in the case of Ukraine, they were taking gas but not sending it to Germany and using it themselves. So some amount of gas did go to Germany, therefore Nord Stream 1 and 2 really became important. You can, if you see that, then you'll realize why that was much more in political play than the other pipelines because as I said, the other pipelines are the problem already. So if you take Nord Stream 1 and 2, this was something of course was much more contentious because Nord Stream 2 had bigger capacity in the turbines of Russia, therefore sanctions didn't work on that, there's a huge issue as you remember over Nord Stream 1, the turbines which turbo compressors, turbines went to Canada, the question was is it under sanctions or not, Germany said no, no, it should come back, we sent it. So all of that controversy is there, which is not there about Nord Stream 2, but Nord Stream 2 was not allowed to be used, it was not operationalized, the various history of that we won't get into, but it was building up pressure within Germany that Nord Stream 2 should be operationalized and therefore German industry as well as the German population which depends on gas particularly for heating as also for electricity then get a benefit that there is a regular gas supply which Russia was willing to give. So this was a pressure on the sanctions regime operating against Russia and therefore Nord Stream 2 became the bone of contention between the United States, Germany and Russia. And this was way before the war itself. In fact it was before the war, the US was very unhappy about Nord Stream 2, Germany was pressing for it, but when this whole Ukraine war started at that point the US said Nord Stream 2 will not be operationalized, we will not let it be operationalized, that was Biden's statement which is also something that other leaders in the United States said at that time, but being the president we have to accept that his statement is the operative issue, what was really operative and he said we will, we have a ways by which we will see that Nord Stream 2 cannot be operationalized. So that was thought to be a political threat, what we did not understand was there was an execution threat behind it which is when Nord Stream 2 blows up. Now let's go to Seymour Hershey's article which you have talked about and Seymour's Hershey's article is very clear that this was a conspiracy from the beginning between the United States and strangely enough something that we hadn't thought about Norway. So Norway is really not close to the pipelines because it really passes through the Baltics. So if you look at the neighbouring countries one would suspect for instance maybe Lithuania, Latvia they are too small or Sweden for that matter, Poland or Sweden who are quite close to where the actual action happens and even Denmark which is not so far off, so Denmark is really here. So these are the natural countries that we would suspect, Seymour Hershey's article is very interesting because it said Norway was a participant along with the United States in scuttling the Nord Stream 2 that it participated in the operation. Now if you look, talk about the Nord Stream operations we know that there were essentially four leaks that took place here, three were in Nord Stream 1 and there is only one leak which took place in Nord Stream 2. Now these pipes which is called Nord Stream 1 and 2 are actually two parallel pipes, two strings, so they are really four pipes. So effectively Nord Stream 1 has three holes in it, both the pipes are out. Nord Stream 2 has one hole in one pipe, so there is another string which is still operational but the issue is nobody is now talking about using it to supply Germany, though at the moment Russia can supply Germany if Germany accepts supply from the Nord Stream 2. So it is not that Nord Stream has totally stopped, it has 50% of its capacity because Nord Stream 2 can really replace all the Nord Stream 1 is supplying and more. So it's not that therefore Nord Stream has been completely stopped, it hasn't but I think the warning is very clear that if they try to operationalize it well will not let that happen. So that message has gone home, so Germany is not talking about operationalizing the remaining pipe of Nord Stream 2. So that is one. The interesting part of the whole operation is that it seems to have been worked out not with normally the special services of the United States, which is what we would expect, but according to Seymour Hirsch it was really operationalized through the US naval. The deep sea divers of the Navy. Deep sea divers of the Navy and he has talked about the Panama school where they were trained and so on, but these are the ones who seem to have really done the sabotage, laid the charges, these are basically shaped charges to be able to break the pipes of this kind of concrete as well as steel. So therefore their shape charges, they are not very deep by the way because the place where it is actually the sabotage takes place it's about 200 to 217 meters deep or something. So it's not a very deep pipeline over there. The pipelines are covered. So they're covered with sand and whatever would be the normal sea bed. But they're also concrete and within that the steel pipes run. So they're not easy to sabotage, you can't take a drill and sort of drill through them kind of stuff or small explosives will not do. So these are shaped charges which require a lot of engineering to think about how to do it and how to lay it and then cause it to explode. As far as we can see, when would it have been laid? Now again, Seymour has said this was done during what's called the Baltic operations 22 or the Baltops 2, which is where I think a number of countries, Baltic Sea, this is the whole Baltic Sea. So if you take this whole area, there was this annual operation, annual naval exercises which takes place, NATO countries and some of its friends participate, which took place around June to September, roughly in that period. But according to Seymour Hirsch, the charges were planted at that time in June. Now this is a bit of a problem because actual explosion takes place in September and again it's true that when it was planted was not when it was exploded. It seems to have been exploded later so that there is plausible deniability, exactly that there is plausible deniability that we are not doing it. Somebody has done it, see we have left the area. So it seems to have, according to some other experts, it seems to have been done later because there was a naval ship, United States naval ship which stayed behind, it did some operations with divers, it did some exercises with them. It has also the ability to have a hatch in the ship through which it can divers descend to the sea bottom without being visible. So the argument is that it left the area around September 17 to 22nd, in that is the time it leaves this area and probably was a ship which was used to send the divers down. So it is not such a long time gap between about two to three months as Seymour Hirsch's article says, but probably shorter. And how, if it is laid in place, it still needs to be covered so it doesn't accidentally is not set off. The question is how is it triggered, if you want a delay. So argument again and the Seymour Hirsch details that it was triggered by a sonar trigger and it's a sonar trigger which is not easy to mimic so it will not happen by accident. So it is a sonar signature, sound signature, the sound wave signature which the depth charged has intelligence and have to recognize that it explodes or it's then starts, the timer starts and it explodes and apparently the sonar was dropped by Norway. Now where it came from, we don't know. So it could have overflowed Sweden and dropped some kind of a device over here or somewhere nearby which would have sent the signal for these explosive devices to work. So this seems to be the picture. If you see the more detailed picture, if you see this picture there is one interesting issue that is visible that on Nord Stream 1, as we said, there are three holes. Nord Stream 1 there is only one hole. This is the island of Bornholm, which is an island which is Denmark under Denmark's control. So the question is what is the role Denmark here and Sweden played and the argument that we get from Hirsch's article, Seymour Hirsch's article is they were informed but they are not a party but they knew that something was afoot. So they knew that something was going to happen but they were not told the details. So that's the whole picture that we have. So this is the issue that it's, shall we say the planning and the execution was done by the United States and vetted by Norway. This is the picture we get. The question is why were these two countries exactly which is what I was coming to in the sense that why the US was interested is pretty obvious at this point and I think the story makes a very particular point that the planning began way before the war did. So the war started in February 22, the planning started in December 21 but still you get what the US was after but in the case of Norway it's interesting that Norway would actually do something to provoke Russia which is one close by and such an important power. So I think the key question before a lot of us is why was Norway also a part of this? That's an interesting question. Why would Norway take such a lead? Okay, the United States was the prime suspect as well as the prime actor, that's clear. But why would Norway do such a thing? Now if we look at the larger geostrategic issues, Norway has as much of a stake as anybody else but there is one significant difference between Norway and all other countries in that region, which is that Norway is a major supplier of natural gas as well as oil but natural gas particularly and it has been a major supplier to other European countries in competition with Russia. So if you look at it, Russians and Norwegians are the primary suppliers of natural gas to Europe particularly both to pipe supplies as well as to LNG. So Norway has a direct Western interest just as the United States has to see the Russian gas does not reach Europe and therefore if you look at what happened after that and you will see here is where the somewhere around this sanctions, you have fairly early on that the supplies from Russia, these are the supplies from Russia start to fall. So these are where the sanctions are biting. So this is around this time, you can see the sanctions are biting and Russian supplies are steadily falling around this in this period. So what is growing and that's an interesting question because what you find growing essentially is Norway pipeline supplies which is blue, these are Norway pipeline supplies, these are the blue line as you can see and that starts rising, the amount starts rising and then you have of course the LNG imports in UK and mainland, LNG imports primarily United States. So this is again primarily United States that is getting the LNG because that's the immediate supply that takes place West Asia of course but that was already there. So this is the new supplies that are coming in and with the two LNG stations Germany has built they are going to replace clearly Russia as a main supplier. Now this is the if you see again you can see Russian supplies decreasing and you can see that the LNG share rising and the LNG share rising is that of the United States primarily some Norway I guess also but primarily and for pipe gas it is going to be Norway which is going to be the main beneficiary. So this is where the picture is and if you look at the figures they are quite astonishing because Norway into 2022 its supplies of LNG and pipe gas primarily of pipe gas has jumped by almost 100 percent twice as much money and United States is also going to get the two LNG stations in Germany coming on stream this year. You can already see the LNG imports from United States is going to grow. So the main beneficiaries of the sabotage are Norway and the United States of course Norway doesn't have the capability of do the skills high level of sophisticated sabotage though they have a lot of experience of undersea piping etc because they have been also building pipelines exploration oil rigs in this area gas in this area. So they have capabilities but certainly they don't have the chutzpah of the Americans or the ability to do so and they need the protective shield of the United States to be able to do this. So the issue is very clear it's a part of the larger economic war against the Russians and it is clear the gainers who are the gainers who are the Russians. The only thing is that Russia hasn't lost as much as they think it would have lost because Russia is able to sell more to others India for example or China for example. So some switching of supplies are taking place and the net result is of course that Russia has a lost as a thought Russia in fact has also gained by increased price of oil. So therefore it's not the quantity of oil or gas that matters but also its price and therefore all of them Russia, Norway, United States have actually gained at the expense of essentially Europe and Germany specifically Germany specific and I think that's the issue why therefore the question to be asked and we have really no answer to this question why is Germany allowing itself to be in this sense bulldozed into bearing the burden of both the war and oil dislocation that is making this natural gas dislocation the price dislocations all of it and for whose benefit. I think that's a question German people have to answer it doesn't look like the German leadership is interested in answering that question. Thank you so much Praveer for talking to us and giving us a sense of how the economic war we've been talking about for so many months actually manifested in a physical attack and I think its implications will definitely be there in the coming months, years and even decades as well. So there we have it the details of how the United States and its ally Norway seem to have decommissioned Nord Stream 1 and maybe even Nord Stream 2 and as Praveer said the people who are who really are at a loss due to this are the people of Germany the people of Europe who could have had access to low-cost energy now whether they'll be able to do so is a very big question we'll be discussing many of these issues in future episodes of Mapping Fortlines until then keep watching NewsClick.