 Hello, traders at CMC Markets. Welcome to a fresh update by RRG Research for Monday, the 29th of May, and I am recording this on Friday, the 26th, before the markets open actually. My name is Julius de Campanar and I am presenting to you from Amsterdam in the Netherlands. We are going to take a look at the current rotations in markets and see if we can make an assessment on what's ahead for us. As usually we start with an RRG of world stock market indexes and as you can see it's quite evenly spread which is interesting because it gives us good trading opportunities because markets are not all moving in the same direction and there is a clear definition or clear distinction between the strength and the weaknesses in the various markets and if we look at this then it's quite obvious that the NASDAQ that's NDI is really really strong and it's rapidly followed by the Japanese Nikai index and we're going to take a look at that index in a while because that is making a very interesting move. Now we've got the S&P moving along so still a concentration and we've talked about it for a while already. US markets picking up again and I think that trend is getting stronger. US is getting stronger around against the rest of the world and especially against Europe because if we look at the European markets then we've got the stock index right here which is crossing from weakening into lagging this week and here are the German DAX and the French CAQ they're still in weakening but they're moving towards that lagging quadrant the FTSE is already in there and here you see the DAJ index that's really lagging in terms of US markets so in the US it's way better to be in the S&P and the NASDAQ than in the DAJ index and then we have the Indian Nifty which is the lowest reading of the RS ratio scale on this chart but it's picking up so it's in the early stages and another one that's very interesting I think and we're going to look at that in a minute is the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong which is now rapidly pushing further into the lagging quadrant. Now this is all on a weekly time scale if we move this to a little bit shorter term trading orientated RRG then we got the confirmation that we're looking for and if I stick with the Hang Seng then you can see here how that rotated through improving and now back into lagging and we know that that is the characteristic of a very strong relative downtrend we also see the cluster of the European markets moving further down into the lagging quadrant here's the stocks you see that the DAX is actually the best in Europe although it's still not very strong it is the it's one of the better markets in Europe but it's now rolling over here's the GAC here's the FTSE XJO is Australia that's kind of like picking up a little bit but not very much and we have the confirmation of the US market so here's the S&P now really moving into the leading quadrant NASDAQ obviously still there and look at the Nikkei how that is moving into the leading quadrant way up to the top right finally the the RRG that puts it against a 0% benchmark all of the others were against the MSCI world so that's all in a relative basis and here you see absolute price trends and then you can see how the Nikkei and the NASDAQ are still holding up very well Nifty is still in a relative uptrend but it's in a price uptrend but it's losing a bit of strength S&P making a little curl here but it's still inside leading so that's all good and the DAX has made that very rapid hook it means that it's still in that price uptrend but it's it's losing momentum and the same goes for yes and for the stocks index that's all all these are already in price downtrends based on this RRG let's take a look at the at some of the individual charts here's the NASDAQ and obviously that got pushed up by this week by a lot of strong earnings numbers I think in terms of the semiconductors and video obviously blowing out everybody's expectations and that's driving up the NASDAQ and what you see here is that the NASDAQ is taking out the previous high which usually is taken as a strong sign and there is no reason to that whether it will be this time the other one and take a look at this because this is an interesting one the other one this this was this is all daily choice but for the Nikkei I had to go back to a weekly chart because this is breaking to well new highs but it's definitely not new all-time highs because if you if you scroll back the Nikkei to a really long-term history now look at what's happening here we go back to that is the early 90s for these levels so we break here we had this double top we consolidate and now we're breaking above that so that means that the Nikkei is now well on the way to actually this is the first little snippet of resistance here around 33,000 but the real challenge obviously is that 38, 39,000 level that was made in 1989 for the Japanese market this is really an important and strong sign with the Nikkei breaking above that overhead resistance level and I'm gonna I'm gonna watch this move like a hawk because it gives a very good kind of low-risk trading opportunity the upside is plenty we've seen and the support right here is now around 33,531,000 so that's a very good risk-reward ratio for a trade if you look at the S&P 500 that's obviously running into resistance from a relative perspective as you can see here that's doing really well it's part of pickup but we would like to see the S&P breaking above 4,200, 4,220 to actually get a little bit more new fuel to move ahead and take that take a challenge to that high around 4,330 that was set back in 2022 if we go to Europe then the things are reversing a little bit the stock index seems to be completing a double top against resistance so there is quite a bit of downside for the European markets available right now so here where we had a low-risk buying opportunity for the Nikkei index it looks as if we're getting a low-risk selling opportunity for the stock index because the downside is wide open all the way down to 4,330 there is a bit of support here around 450,448 but the signal was triggered around 458,459 so that is now that can serve as a stop-loss level on the upside the DAX is is less bad or better but lack of better wording than the stock index but you can see how it peaked against that overhead resistance it's got a lot of trouble moving higher we've got a little island here that's usually not a very good sign and I'm watching here 15,675 as support for the DAX index and if that breaks then definitely the DAX is also in the boat of further declining prices and we could even go down to 14,600 now the other index that I told you was very interesting is the Hang Seng index because remember how the Nikkei pushed to a new high and opened up the way for more upside potential look at what the what the Hang Seng is doing we had this nice rally here but now we're breaking below this important support level that was 1,800 say 19,000 and we're breaking that right now and that opens up the way that opens up the downside back towards 17,000 maybe even a little bit lower and if you look at the RRG lines you can see how how the RS ratio line is already below a hundred since February it never really made it back up and now momentum is starting to roll over as well so in Asia we've got the Nikkei breaking to new highs pushed by strong momentum and we've got the Hang Seng index moving to well not new lows but but breaking support while negative momentum negative relative momentum is increasing I think that's these are the two markers that we really need to be aware of and then obviously we've got the the spread between the U.S. and Europe growing but I think the Asian one is is a lot more attractive from a trading perspective because there's way much more potential over there we take a quick look at the the New York Fang index we we talk about that here in the show all the time then we see that that is now running into resistance you can see how yes the last week's bar was actually pushed higher so this is this is Thursday on the back of Nvidia and AMD pushing really higher we're running into resistance now for this group of stocks and if we look at the weekly RRG then we can see that it's actually the semi so AMD Nvidia and then also Meta doing really really well on the right hand side and all the others here are still on the on the left hand side there's a few that are doing quite good that's like Amazon Google Microsoft but you can see how these last observations are really already starting to roll over a little bit Netflix is an old one out it's still way into lagging but it's got a nice heading and then we've got snowflakes moving into snowflake moving into improving but it's it's at a very low reading on the RS ratio scale and if we bring that to a daily RRG then we can see that actually AMD and Nvidia are are into the leading quadrant and pushing in there so they're still strong but you can see how Google is rolling over how Netflix is rolling over Tesla has got a little bit of trouble and how snowflake is now rolling over rapidly into that weakening quadrant Meta picking up so it's the the image here the universe here is getting a little bit more scattered it's not as clear anymore as it used to be and if we look at the individual charts and obviously we need to look at Nvidia and AMD and look at these charts the downside risk is increasing I wouldn't be surprised if you would see at least a little bit of a correction back to the all-time high level here which is around 335 or maybe even close the gap so for Nvidia great move great stock if it's part of your portfolio I mean there's no reason there's no sales like whatsoever for Nvidia but the risks are clearly increasing because you know this is all downside potential the upside is obviously there but I'd be very careful with a stock like this and the same goes to a lesser extent for AMD here we've got a nice rally but you can see how AMD has not yet by a mile reached this all-time high levels which are back up to 165 there's a bit of upside potential left here to 125 but here also quite a big gap which obviously increases the downside risk for stock like Nvidia for good or meta that's another story that I think is getting more interesting now we've had that massive gap here with a massive gap here and now you can see how meta has entered the gap area that was set back in February 2022 the the old high here that old resistance level is now expected to start acting as support so here in meta we've got actually a good pretty good upside potential with limited downside risk so compare that to the moves in Nvidia and AMD and it looks like meta is is holding up or providing better opportunities than those two I think at the moment let's quickly move to the forex space to wrap up the show and what we see here is in general dollar strength and it's even better visible this is the weekly rg but if you look at the daily rg and here is here is the picture that is spaking volumes this is dollar strength all these currency pairs or all these currencies expressed in the US dollar are now moving into the lag in quadrant and that is an expression of dollar strength because the dollar is the center of the chart here and if we look at the two charts that I think are worth watching most that is euro dollar because we've seen how that has been struggling with that overhead resistance around 110 111 and it's now clearly coming off that resistance area we've taken out the previous low here there was another support level around 108 and it looks like we're now underway to 105 if we put this on a longer-term time frame I wouldn't be surprised if we could see US dollar going all the way back or the euro going all the way back to 95 96 cents but I mean that this the first move that I'm watching here is back to 105 with resistance i.e maybe stop loss area around 108 but you can clearly see how this rally came into trouble ran into trouble never made it above 110 111 and now the market has capitulated and euro is weakening dollar is strengthening the ratio is moving down we bring that to the dollar yen and think about what we just said about the nikai chart you can see how the dollar is now really strengthening against the the the japanese yen this is a really big base that we're taking out here there is there's a bit of resistance coming in around 142 but here also it looks as if the dollar is picking up a lot of strength against the yen and the upside is far greater than the downside risk which is around 138 probably that's it for this week I hope you enjoyed the show thank you for watching and we're hoping to see you again at a fresh update by RRG research next week same time same place