 Honored watch is Laun Jean. Laun Jean watches have won 10 World's Fair Grand Prizes, 28 gold medals and more honors for accuracy than any other timepiece. Laun Jean, the world's most honored watch, is made and guaranteed by the Laun Jean Wittemaw Watch Company. It's time for the Laun Jean Chronoscope, a television journal of the important issues of the hour, brought to you every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. A presentation of the Laun Jean Wittemaw Watch Company, maker of Laun Jean, the world's most honored watch, and Wittemaw, distinguished companion to the world-honored Laun Jean. Good evening. This is Frank Knight. May I introduce our co-editors for this edition of the Laun Jean Chronoscope? Mr. William Bradford Huey, editor of the American Mercury, and Mr. Donald I. Rogers, an editor of the New York Herald Tribune, our distinguished guest for this evening is Mr. Arthur S. Fleming, chairman of the Federal Manpower Policy Committee. The opinions expressed are necessarily those of the speakers. Mr. Fleming, as chairman of the Manpower Policy Committee, we'd like to have you tell us tonight, sir, how the nation is gearing itself to the rearmament program, and what long-range policies you're planning for us. Thank you very much. But taking a look at the overall picture at the present time, I think it is fair to say that as you think in terms of gross numbers and as you think in terms of the nationwide picture, that we are not confronted with any serious overall manpower shortages. And in my judgment, we will not be confronted with any serious overall manpower shortages. As long as the defense mobilization program moves along at approximately this level. However, we are up against some serious shortages. For example, in some of the skilled trade, and also in connection with scientific, technical, and engineering personnel. And we've got about five areas in the country where we're up against some serious overall shortages. Well, right now, in about 18 areas, there's anything but a labor shortage, isn't there? That's right. That too poses a problem for you, doesn't it? That's right. We've got 18 areas, major areas that have been certified to us by the Department of Labor as labor surplus areas. And then about five smaller areas that have also been certified as labor surplus areas. New York is one of those areas, isn't it? New York is one of the 18. That's right. Now, Mr. Fleming, sir, you are a man who's a college president and you've been around Washington a great deal now. You've had a lot of experience with manpower. So I'm sure that our audience would like for you to tell us specifically tonight some of the problems that you have and some observations that you've made. Now, I believe it's true now that you are not... This isn't an emergency thing. You have long-range plans for the utilization of our labor force. That's right. In my judgment, we must plan on the assumption that we're involved or will be involved in some kind of a defense mobilization program for the next 10 to 15 to 20 years. It seems to me if we don't proceed from that particular premise, we're bound to make some serious mistakes from a long-term point of view. Now, you're marshaling our labor force as a nation for a period from somewhere between 10 to 20 years. That's true, isn't it? That's right. All right. Now, how many people are in the American labor force now? Well, at the present time, we've got something around 65 million. 65 million. And that number will go up to something like 67, 68 million. That's right. That's right. And this year... That includes, incidentally, the people in the armed forces. I mean, those totals include the people serving in the armed forces. And how many people do you expect to serve in the armed forces this year and next? Well, the budget that the President submitted to the Congress caused for building up the armed forces to 3 million 7. Right now, we're running around maybe about 3 million 5. And then, according to the budget that has been submitted during 1953, that is fiscal 1953, we'll level off at about 3 million 7. Now, such is such a plan, such a long-range program of 10 to 20 years, a great number of our people working in defense industries. Now, that's going to have an influence on practically every young man's life. Now, as a government expert and as a college president, I'm sure that our audience would like you to tell us just about how it will affect a typical young American's life. Well, as I say it, we are in a period of universal service. I say that irrespective of what action may finally be taken by the Congress in connection with universal military training proposals. But if we are in a defense mobilization program for a period of 10 to 15 to 20 years, then it seems very clear to me that with very few exceptions, most of the young men will be called upon to serve for a period of time in the armed forces. That is tantamount to a manpower draft, sir, isn't it? Well, it's certainly we proceed on the basis of a draft for the armed forces. But don't misunderstand me there. I do not think that we will ever need a labor draft as far as taking care of the needs of our civilian economy or our defense production needs are concerned. Coming back to this typical young man now, practically every young American reaching the age of 18 will have to anticipate that he let's serve some period in the Army, somewhere from a year to two years, perhaps. That's right. Now, after that, will he have time to get an education? Well, I think it's pretty clear that at the present time we're moving in the direction of this kind of an approach that we are permitting. People, for example, to finish their college courses or their college programs before they serve in the armed forces. And right now we have under consideration the possibility of permitting apprentices, for example, to finish their training programs before they're called upon to serve in the armed forces. Of course, a person can volunteer as he finishes high school and he can get this period of service out of the way. But up to the present time, if a person gets into college or gets involved in an apprenticeship training program, for example, and if he carries on that work in a satisfactory manner, he's permitted to finish. Then he is to go in and serve for a period of time and then when he comes out, he's already had his training. And I'd like to emphasize right at that particular point that this program for deferment of college students is just that, deferment, not exemption. It is our feeling that with very few exceptions, a person who finishes a training program in a college or university must then serve for a period of time in the armed forces. Well, now I have a seven-year-old son, Mr. Fleming, who would like eventually to be a doctor. That's his plan at the present time. What's his fate going to be in this manpower program? Is he going to be allowed to become a doctor and at the age of 25, 26, then serve in the armed forces? I think there's a very good chance that that's the way it would work out under the kind of a program that we're operating on under at the present time. In other words, he'd go right on through, complete his training for medicine, and then go in and serve in the armed forces as a doctor for a period of time, which seems to me to make pretty good sense because the armed forces need doctors just as we need doctors in our civilian. I'm trying to see what time a young man can start living his own life. Now, he has to have some sort of education. Now, is all of this pressure for technical training and technicians? Is that changing the requirements for education now? Certainly, we are faced with the necessity of persuading more persons to go into engineering and scientific and technical work than has been the case up to the present time. Naturally, that gives rise to the question, are they just going to get scientific and technical and engineering training or are they going to get a broader type of training? To me, one of the most interesting trends at the present time is a trend in the direction of cooperation between liberal arts colleges and engineering schools, for example, under which a person will go to a liberal arts college for three years, then go to an engineering school for two years, and get a degree both from the liberal arts college and from the engineering school so that he gets his technical training and also background in the liberal arts field. So a young man serves two years in the army, then he goes to three years to Ohio Wesleyan or some liberal arts school, and then he goes two years to something like MIT. That's the training period, so a young man will be 25 years old before he finishes his college training and his army service. That's the picture at the present time. Now, of course, it's fair to say that those who are planning on the military side of our manpower picture feel that as we build up an effective reserve, it may be possible for us to cut down on the number of persons in the armed forces and it may also be possible to cut down on the period of service. That's your 25-year picture to some extent. I'm sure that the women in our audience, Mr. Fleming, would like for you to comment on whether we must have more women in the defense effort. There's no question in my mind that we should and must have more as time goes on. Let me take this field of engineering just for illustrative purposes. It seems to me that if we're going to provide ourselves with an adequate supply of engineers, we must encourage more women with aptitudes along that particular line to go into our engineering schools and to be trained as engineers. I don't see any other way of making up the deficit that confronts us at the present moment. But also, as you take a look at your overall figures, for example, we say in 1952 that after you allow for the normal increase in the labor force of about 800,000, after you allow for the possibility of cutting down the number of unemployed by 300,000, it'll be necessary to bring in 400,000 extra workers. Now, we need 400,000 extra workers in 1952. That's the estimate that's been given to us by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and I think that's a pretty fine estimate. And where do you expect to get them? Well, they'll come from among the women, from minority groups, from among the physically handicapped who may have handicaps, but who have the skills and abilities that are required for particular jobs. They'll come from those sources. You plan a special recruiting program to help emphasis, I mean, that the government must take leadership in urging high school counselors and college counselors and so on to persuade persons who have aptitudes, for example, for scientific and technical and engineering work to move in that direction, both men and women. And may I underline the word women there, because I think that's our way out as far as that problem is concerned. Now, as a college president, sir, do you think that something quite hopeful for American people? I feel that way. It seems to me that we do not need to be pessimistic about the future, but that in the long run our young men and young women will probably get even better training than they were getting, let's say, in the 1920s. And certainly a larger number. Thank you very much for being with us this evening, sir. It's a pleasure to be here. The editorial board for this edition of the Lone Jean Chronoscope was Bradford Huey and Mr. Donald I. Rogers. Our distinguished guest was Mr. Arthur S. Fleming, chairman of the Federal Manpower Policy Committee. Do you have the problem of selecting a gift of great prestige for someone important to you? That problem is happily solved with Lone Jean, the world's most honored watch, because of the fine quality of the watch itself and because of what the name Lone Jean stands for. To the whole world, Lone Jean stands as the only watch in history to win the highest of all awards, 38 times at world fairs and international expositions, including 10 grand prizes and 28 gold medals. Lone Jean stands for the watch of first choice in sports, aviation, science and in other fields of precise timing. 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We invite you to join us every Monday, Wednesday and Friday evening at this same time for the Lone Jean Chronoscope a television journal of the important issues of the hour broadcast on behalf of Lone Jean the world's most honored watch and Wittner distinguished companion to the world honored Lone Jean sold and service from coast to coast by more than 4,000 leading jewelers who proudly display this emblem agency for Lone Jean Wittner watches. This is Frank Knight speaking. This is the CBS television network.