 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the morning markets kickoff with your host Tommy O'Brien. Good Friday morning everybody I'm Tommy O'Brien coming to you live from TFNN we kick things off on jobs Friday 199,000 jobs added the unemployment rate how about 3.7 percent coming at you man a very strong economy yields pushing up a bit seems like we might not get all the cuts you were just thinking about that we would get just about an hour ago we'll break in some of the action but where's the markets we're right back to where we were prior to that number which is remarkable you come into the number 830 at 4580 you jump around we dive down low to 4562 we get back up to almost 4590 and just like that we're basically unchanged in the S&Ps NASDAQ 100 we're a little bit lower you got a little bit higher yield but basically a recoil action we'll see if the action carries through on the open NASDAQ 100 off by 78 points that's about half a percent right now in the red you jump over to the Dow off by 56 points right now 36,111 that's only about two tenths percent you see the dive load almost 36,000 and you get the rustle in positive territory in 1873 crude we got a 68 handle yesterday we're higher off that price point still sitting at a relatively reasonable $70.84 in the price of crude gold with some action yields some action currencies some action gold this morning been quite a week for gold you spike 2152 on the future Sunday night you hit a low of 2027 on Tuesday and we're approaching that low yet again in gold at 2030 you see the drop off there that'll make a little bit more sense when you drop over to yields now it's interesting right the market unchanged meanwhile you just said the 10-year yield go from almost 4.15 to 4.25 we'll pull it up in a moment but we got lower price higher yield coming at you that's part of the reason why you have the NASDAQ 100 leading the way to negative prices off about a half a percent you jump over to the dollar index this morning what are we gonna have right we're gonna have higher yield we're gonna have dollar strength the dollar back above 104 to 104 87 so you got dollar strength that's putting some weakness into gold you have higher yields you have a market that is actually above where it was at though when you came into that number okay so could you have higher yields then the market is maybe anticipating but the market not paying the penalty for that right just pointing to the fact that maybe the Fed is not going to cut as quickly as the market just continues moving forward at a very strong pace yeah we will see nonetheless interesting action we spike lower we get it back we're actually above where you came in at 830 now if you said that yields are gonna spike higher would you have the S&P also higher right interesting action sometimes you you could even know the news and you might struggle to predict the market action because the volatility you could have imagined if we saw those yields spiking higher that maybe the market would react poorly and you have seen that slightly in the NASDAQ 100 but you're only talking about negative by maybe 10 points where you came into that number and not even basically flat where you came into that number S&P is off by 6 and nonetheless let's get into the numbers so the economy adds 199,000 jobs in November that's the front page of Wall Street Journal dot com WSJ dot com and yeah I mean the trend is lower right you can't deny it it's a strong number this is going all the way back from 2021 2022 what we were pushing remember remember July 2022 that number that came in at 568 and everyone's like oh Fed's got some work to do since then we got lower lows and lower highs you hit a spike in January of this year 472 a little bit of an anomaly you hit a spike of 281 in May you dropped down to a level of 105 in June and yeah what the last six months now you're talking about 105 236 165 262 150 and now 199 today the most interesting part about it may be the unemployment rate at 3.7% and you're talking about labor force participation a huge part of that unemployment rate you're now at 62.8% that's matching a post-pandemic high and if you're talking about pre-covid levels of 63.3 pretty remarkable we're almost back to that level when you think about the amount of people that came out of the workforce right that was the whole rhetoric now make sure I get this headline right got a few headlines jumping around yeah I think this is the one I wanted yeah that's the chart we were just talking about there's your unemployment rate unexpectedly going back down to 3.7% on the wages front pay increases have become smaller in recent months compared with earlier in the year earlier in the year you're rising 4.7% wages and prices so you get the hourly let's zoom in on this and blow it up a little bit there we go hourly earnings at 4% weekly at 3.7 and we're gonna get CPI next week yeah so healthcare was a big one man added almost 60,000 jobs this month they're on 60,000 if you average it out and jump it back to some of what yeah a small net revision down 35,000 for the previous two months the unemployment rate at 3.7 you're gonna hear that 3.7 number a lot man you did see a little bit of a hot number and average hourly earnings I mean you got full employment man okay hourly earnings going up 0.4 percent right now that's a hot number we got the unemployment rate at 3.7 percent right now taking out some of the other numbers yeah healthcare was 77,000 it's a 60,000 average over the last six months government pretty much all local and state and they're talking about in the den interesting part of that not the federal government local and state 49,000 in the month is government what you're talking about there healthcare 77,000 manufacturing stuck in the mud 28,000 in November yeah now that's gonna be a big part of the auto workers there Bloomberg does a great job doing the live feed I was watching this right up till the program even if you're not watching their program you know just in terms of a live feed breaking down these numbers because it is interesting on a day like today where there's so many numbers that comes out in this yeah how about the household survey 747,000 is what it searched by after it declined 348,000 in October talk about variance man yeah so yields jump a bit they've held on to that a bit this one's interesting we talked about the employment okay people coming back to the workforce employment population ratio how tight the jobs market is you're talking about 60.5% just below the 60.8 average for 2019 prior to the pandemic everything is related to like prior to pandemic post pandemic we got the market holding steady down about 10 points right now yeah the 747,000 per thousand person in the household employment after the decline even they say in here variance right there's a lot of variance in some of these numbers the FOMC might not find that development either credible or durable right variance basically we'll talk about some more of it we got a lot to talk about we got 15 minutes till the opening bell stay tuned folks we'll be right back get ready Tigers Thursday December 14th Tim Mord is back to host another stellar live webinar from 4 p.m. to 5 30 p.m. Eastern time Tim Mord will delve into the secret science of market tops helping you the viewer with how to effectively call market tops in order to increase your success in trade Tim Mord has developed this understanding over decades of trading and is ready to impart this knowledge on you visit the front page of TFNN.com today to sign up for Tim Mord secret science of market tops TFNN educating investors if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals sign up for rocket equities and options report today with a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your subscription 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11 points right now we get back to some of the discussion talking about the numbers unemployment rate 3.7 percent that is highly related of course to the participation rate at 62.8 percent right wage growth numbers 0.4 percent on a month-over-a-month basis I'm giving you kind of the biggest numbers out there the 747 thousand in the household employment that drove that a little bit suspect in the way that variance right it's either credit not credible or possibly not durable possibly on both sides of that but something to consider nonetheless all right we scroll up here talking about a different takes on this payroll gains broader than october's one take on there see how we make it through the holiday season when you talk about consumer spending right bonds did flatten a bit after that's first spike now what's great is you know this is a breakdown as you commit to about 853 that's pretty much where I kicked off this thing and started taking off getting ready for the program higher than expected hourly earnings that's going to be one of the Fed talks about man so check this one right right yeah this is the decline in the unemployment rate was led by teenagers in the month teenagers yeah and the unemployment rate for women over 20 hispanic americans and white americans also fell so that was who was coming back in the workforce yeah the feds in the feds in no rush and they're still looking for over a full percentage point of easing by the end of 2024 somewhere between four and five cuts right if you do a quarter point cuts they're looking for between four and five cuts by the end of 2024 never remember the fed meets about every six weeks they don't meet every month so if you got to get four to five cuts in that's a lot of cuts to put it lightly and that household survey is going to get a lot of attention next week man as they're saying it's basically a catch up for the variance we've seen in prior months variance is variance variance is one of the most amazing things out there folks if you deal with statistics probabilities all right some of you know I played a lot of online poker in my days and boy one of the things that really applies so much is different games have different levels of variance which lead to larger swings in the short term even though if you run the sample size long enough right everything should navigate back to the mean but boy variance can be a tough one sometimes I mean a great example right the biggest variance you can have imagine is well this isn't the biggest variance you can have I think are they one of the largest variance probability plays you want to play like mega millions or powerball or something like that right what are the odds to win something like one out of 225 million something like that okay now you have to consider when you're playing the lottery we're digressing here um but variance okay not a lot of people think about variance in the correct way there's a lot of times you may have so much variance that you can't withstand that variance even when you're making positive expected value bets wagers investments whatever you want to call them okay so let's just look at powerball first of all if you let's say the powerball jackpot gets to a billion dollars right well first of all you have to consider the fact that you might split that jackpot with two people three people four people five people whatever it may be okay but let's just say you knew you were gonna hit that jackpot for a billion dollars okay and let's just say you knew you're gonna hit it by yourself and the jackpot rules which is not the case uh meant no taxes or anything like that so basically that billion dollars was going to be yours tax free you don't have to share with anybody and it goes right in your bank account okay i tell all you gotta do is hit the number you hit the number you don't have to worry about sharing it you don't have to worry about paying taxes you don't have to do anything you're gonna win a billion dollars and i'd say to you well geez every dollar i put up i got about a one out of 250 million shot of winning and you're telling me that when i do win you're gonna pay me four times my odds for a billion dollars right say right say well geez that's that's that's easy money in the long term right how much money should you put into that wager uh probably none of it if you want to keep any of that money because there's so much variance in that bet that for you to reach the long term average mean in terms of for you hitting it one out of every 250 million times can you imagine the sample size that you would need to show that you're actually hitting the lottery one out of every 252 million times i wonder what that i wonder what we you know we could run that let's look at that on the statistics if anybody has that if you're out there watching you want to run this one right what's a good sample size that gives you and this goes back to statistics man gets me back to stat 101 what's a good sample size that gets you a decent confidence interval that you'll be somewhere within that range of the the actual long term odds of hitting the lottery it's got to be a big number point being right be careful out there because really that's the easiest money you'd ever make man you're guaranteed in the long term to make four times on your money basically three times profit right you bet on a probability one out of 250 million a hit and every time you hit you're going to make a billion dollars but guess what man sometimes it takes a while for those numbers to pan out so you know that household survey they're talking about they're just catching up yeah i digressed a little bit and went big picture variance but sometimes there's a lot of variance in a lot of the data that we get in a lot of the probability distributions that you see in things playing out so be aware of that one i like variance and that's the other part you know if you expose yourself to variance though right and you do it in a way that you can manage the risks okay as in you know powerball hits a billion dollars man you go join a pool with all your friends you spend twenty dollars right what are you doing you're managing the risk okay you're making a twenty dollar wager it almost approaches the point of expected value being positive it's real close because you got to take out the cash value of today which has diminished greatly because we got a high interest rate now and then you got to take out the taxes and then you got to think about splitting people so it's got to get really really high to actually be a plus EV bet even with everything else but you see that even in that issue you're managing the risk you're spending 20 bucks what a couple times a year when the jackpot gets big and um yeah but what do you do you open yourself up to variance and if it smacks you in the face on the good side um then yeah you bank that variance on the good side because you manage your risk gets me back into some of those poker days because i used to play i used to play big online tournaments folks that's what i enjoyed most and there is an extreme amount of variance all right we got two minutes to the break we're coming back we're going to talk equities on the opening bell but check this one out people like poker all right if you're in the stock market uh you may have played some poker in your day you like a little bit of gambling you like action as long as you can do it with a positive expected value so i always tell people people think about gambling and they have a misconception because they associate gambling with games that have an automatic negative expected value you go play blackjack this is interesting and later we have craps coming to the hard rock in Tampa pretty soon i think it's here like in the next few days if not this month that's a negative expected game for every time you walk in you put a hundred dollars on that craps table i'm telling you in the long term you're going to lose money not the case depending on how you're playing at poker not the case depending on how you're investing or trading in the stock market okay but i used to play tournaments and in tournaments it's very top-heavy you play a hundred person tournament right the winner of that tournament might take home 25 of the prize pool they pay down 10 of the field 100 person tournament they're paying 10 people 90 people are not getting paid at all you're supposed to have about 100 buy-ins for multi-table tournaments right that means if you're playing a 200 dollar tournament at your local casino and you want to do that by managing variants you should have about a 20 000 bankroll because there's so much variance in poker we'll leave it at that we're coming back we're talking equities folks we're going to take a look at lululemon they're trading low this the season for leveling up your trading skills basal Chapman is happy to offer all opening call subscribers a free subscriber webinar wednesday 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excuse me drop about 14 ticks you've now risen about six ticks from there see where our yields actually are on that 10 year 4.22 we'll call it we're sitting at maybe 4.15 when we kicked off the session so a little bit higher yield you jump over the dollar index dollar index hold on to those gains still above 104 we were as high as 104 26 on the dollar you check out the gold contract gold trading down by about 23 dollars right now we check in on the dollar yen a little bit of a recoil from yesterday's action as well a little bit of volatility on our number at 30 as you see as well in that dollar yen let's jump over to the euro see how we're doing as well as these markets fade in a bit and we're negative by eight right now with the euro trading at 107 47 all right we talked about lulu lemon so lulu out with their numbers last night disappointing numbers they're off by 2.2 percent that's a ten dollar drop now this thing man you talk about strong right yeah we're off by what two dollars this equity just traded up 150 dollars this year we're approaching all-time highs of 485 for lulu lemon but yeah they trade a little bit lower and the headline out there for lulu tepid holiday outlook despite strong start to the holiday shopping season is what they say there lulu comes in with earnings per share of 253 not sure what that is comped against revenue just above expectations by that would be 10 million dollars yes 10 million dollars you got your decimal points on billions man everything's in billions these days the company's reported net income for the three month period 249 million or buck 96 a share they made 255 a year earlier almost right in line right sales up 19 percent from a year earlier so it's interesting the sales go up 19 percent we look how much extra money they brought in and they actually make less money than they had costs man really you're talking about what 340 million dollars extra they took in on that quarter 340 million extra they made 255 million and 1.86 billion a year earlier they made 249 on 2.2 billion this year sales up 12 percent north america and 49 percent internationally holiday guidance is what they're talking about sending the stock lower though lulu said it expects between 3.14 and 3.17 for the fourth quarter they couldn't quite get into the 3.18 that the analysts were expecting so just below that number earnings 45 to 493 market was looking for a little bit higher as well 480 to 519 for the full year about 9.55 billion dollars is what they're going to be taking in i mean not bad when you look at some of the lower estimates and maybe that's just a cherry pick low 8.11 but the high end was almost 10 billion dollars decent numbers but not transferring to the profits and the expectation is a little bit dicey going forward total comp sales up 13 percent market was looking for 12.4 you got some lofty inflation numbers man nonetheless they're trading lower this morning on lulu was just reading through that but look at this as it saves itself a bit like it man look at this lulu up by 10 bucks on the open to 460 but be careful of that one man be careful because you know it's all about how much money you can make and boy they really crushed it on the revenue side but they can't bring it down to the bottom line and then you add that onto the outlook problems and that could be problematic if their margins are decreasing right we get the russell trading higher by 7.1877 let's check out some of these fang stocks amazon shares down a bit off about nine tenths percent you get the nasdaq 100 leading the way down you jump over to the big dog apple apple shares holding up relatively well only down about one tenth percent microsoft down six tenths percent how about the day for google yesterday man you give back some of those gains google off by 1.5 percent today there's some volatility for you meta shares today off by about four tenths percent we jump over to nvidia shares positive by half a percent for nvidia amd flat after their big day to higher prices yesterday and yeah let's talk a little bit of apple to apple let's jump around here this one from the journal and i'm sure there's going to be multiple reports on this as we push forward but they're aiming to make a quarter of the world's iphones in india yeah the story out early this morning late last night foxconn plans to build more factories and give india a production role once limited most of the china apple's no fool man um no matter what g and biden talked about man things are ratcheting up in the next 10 20 and 30 years folks and time flies okay and apple man they're going to get it done like the next couple years yeah i saw by 2025 let's get the number where is it it's in here somewhere here it is uh combined with plans for expanded production at an existing foxconn plant near some city in india yeah they're going to be making 50 to 60 million iphones in india annually within two to three years quite a number man and there they've chosen india for its site for manufacturing stage for lower end iphones to be sold in 2025 the first phase of the foxconn plant under construction in the southern state of karnataka is expected to start operating in april and the plant aims to make 20 million mobile handsets annually manually iphones with the next two to three years yeah it's a smart move uh it's a long-term play but i imagine you see that happen a man why not right why not things uh looking a little dicey with china all right this article and that's interesting i was reading this this morning and i was thinking you know things are going to change at 8 30 and i'm sure they're going to change a little bit but we'll talk a little bit about this one when we come back double trouble investors fight the fed on two friends rate expectations have plunged for next year but further out they are still high the yield curve interesting to see how that one goes forward man but boy you talk about implied probability of interest rates above five percent in december of 2024 i mean look at this man october 18th okay there was a one out of three chance that rates were going to be above five percent in december 2024 that's the market implied probability october 17th by november 3rd that odd was two percent we got a flare up and today that odds are basically zero that we're anywhere near here we have cuts coming down the line it's just a matter of how many is what the market is saying we get cpi next week so we're going to talk about some of that action uh we'll talk a little bit about these numbers we'll be right back folks tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tiger's for just one dollar for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of 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percent right now you jump over to city positive by half a percent wells fargo positive as well check out some of the airlines jet blue yeah what did they change their forecast yesterday something quite the day higher for them yesterday if you're looking to catch a fallen knife man gotta be careful anything i would be touching with this equity okay and i just flew jet blue used to love jet blue for the longest time a bunch of my friends can't stand jet blue anecdotally up in boston right now one of my friends travels a lot from the boston area just bought a home in the bokeh market so he's traveling down there he's on the flight saying it's the third flight that's been um delayed to an extreme amount that one they they had to turn around on the tarmac uh that one did have to do with the passenger in all fairness we said not jet blue's problem it's the third time this time i had to do a passenger now be careful if you put money into this thing just realized that you might be able to wake up some morning and it's a two dollars one dollars on its way to zero we just went from 21 to three okay just went from 21 to three so be careful but with that said yeah we got a little bit of a bit man finally in jet blue 549 we got markets we're there we got there it didn't take long it's 944 in the morning and we are in positive prices as you get the s and p is trading at 45 92 as we speak and what else do we have going on folks so we got a bunch of great stuff coming up man we have first of all a tiger doll holiday sale this sale is only running through next week folks okay you got one week left don't delay get some tiger dollars you can get up to a 40 bonus on your purchase okay three choices in terms of tier levels you spend 500 you get 600 tiger dollars you spend a thousand you get 1300 that's 300 free tiger dollars in your account you spend 1500 you get a 40 bonus 2100 tiger dollars uh 600 additional free tiger dollars you can use for any tf&n newsletter service and we got a couple great webinars coming up as well tim ward the secret signs of market tops how to identify market tops thursday that's six days folks december 14th four till 5 30 p.m eastern time okay you can check that out on the front page of tf&n and if you're a subscriber to the opening call you're all set already if you haven't tried out basil's outstanding newsletter folks his program is after my show every day okay the tiger technicians hour you can check out his daily newsletter the opening call great time to do it over the weekend basil usually puts out a video for his subscribers on the weekend on saturdays he has updates throughout the week every single day when warranted uh not when warranted every single day excuse me check out the opening call he's got a webinar coming up in 12 days okay that's uh yeah wednesday the following wednesday december 20th before we really come into christmas and new year's week where things will slow down a bit sectors and stocks just coming off major 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keep it you cancel it you get a 30 day money back guarantee those tiger dollars are put right back into your account and you can use them for the next thing that you maybe want to try out whether it's a newsletter um or you want to check out one of the one of the many webinars we have coming up the secret science and market tops we could be at all time highs by the time Tim Moore is talking december 14th we'll see how things go next week uh but yeah we're only what 200 points away in the s&p we got a cpi number next week which is an important one and we're talking about a recent high of 46 34 in the s&p's pretty interesting of where we base out that one to 1.618 expansion right 4607 we hit that number on the dot looks like we're heading back to that number as the market likes the numbers that we got this morning excuse me all right what else we got pulled up here to talk about let's take a look we talked about tiger dollars of course yeah talking about that same article back to the journal piece so this was talking about fighting the feds on two fronts right fighting it either on the short end of implied interest rates whether it's cuts okay now what it did talk about in here is that the most extreme investors expect cuts really soon 14 percent chance that we're getting the cut in january folks you think we're getting a cut in january that's a hefty percentage now this is prior to this morning's number that's probably going to ease a bit futures in in october okay there was a 40 percent chance of another hike that week that's now a three percent right now what they do get into is on the other side of that is the longer term rates okay here's where they talk about fighting the fed part two there's a big gap between long run treasury yields and where the fed thinks interest rates should eventually settle okay the strange thing here as they say i'm quoting this isn't that the market thinks rates will be higher than before it's that the fed does not the fed is kept persistent with that number of 2.5 percent right it's september forecast predicted long run interest rates at 2.5 percent and after inflation or real rate of 0.5 percent investors think the real rate in the long run will be close to 2 percent okay some of the gap between the treasury market and the fed's prediction is accounted for by the extra yield investors demand to compensate for the glut of bonds coming from the government as it borrows to fund the deficit but the rest is the market saying that the fed has got it wrong where's it going to end up right uh and ought to raise its long run rates prediction unless it's going to allow more inflation and raise its 2 percent target so what's it going to be uh we will see and they finish this up the fed next week could resolve both of those issues the most bullish case would be they say rate cuts are possible by the spring of next year and markets will be paying close attention to any sign that paul is becoming more dovish long run rates will get less airtime but don't forget that if the fed is right about that long-term interest rate then the 10-year and 30-year bond yields are far too high i'm thinking about those scenarios right so keep that in mind you know if you're believing the fed with where the natural rate of the long-term interest rate is going to be where inflation is going to be where the long-term interest rate is going to be then the market has some work to do and we get to see if that's going to be the case right markets today they're doing some work to the upside man s and p is right back to where we were at about 5 30 a.m this morning coming up to an area of possible resistance that's where we were yesterday afternoon to 45 95 we jump around to some of the commodities crude 70 74 this morning we check out that gold contract this morning gold down to 2018 we're back to 2025 you jump over to the dollar index pulling back a bit to 10403 folks don't forget check out those tiger dollars on the front page of tfnn.com 20 30 40 bonus you want to check out the gold report folks great time to do it my dad's got new issues on monday that come out you want to try out market insights you want to try out the opening call tim ord's webinar my newsletter lock in those tiger dollar savings one week only we'll be back to finish up the shows folks stay get ready tigers thursday december 14th tim ord is back to host another stellar live webinar from 4 p.m to 5 30 p.m eastern time tim ord will delve into the secret science of market tops helping you the viewer with how to effectively call market tops in order to increase your success in trading tim ord has developed this understanding over decades of trading and is ready to impart this knowledge on you visit the front page of tfnn.com today to sign up for tim ord's secret science of market tops tfnn educating investors it's december tigers that means festivities decorating spending time with friends and family and the tfnn tiger dollar holiday sale don't miss your chance to receive a 20 30 or even a 40 bonus when you purchase tiger dollars once you apply your tiger dollars to your account you will be able to use them for any tfnn product purchase instead of your credit card visit the front page of tfnn.com today to purchase your tiger dollars don't miss your chance to receive up to a 40 bonus on your tiger dollar purchase this holiday season every tiger who purchases tiger dollars will also receive a complimentary tfnn tiger mug with their purchase act fast this sale ends december 17 happy holiday tigers tfnn educating investors a gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xAU hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom obrien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future right like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts you might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com the opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave the chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day first time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv welcome back folks we get the s and p's off by just two points right now we were just in positive territory we trade just back off where we were yeah keep your eye on that number right it's just a natural area of resistance about 45 95 we touched the area of 4607 46 0 46 34 the recent highs that we made earlier this year so keep your eye on this range we're in a range right now the next 40 50 points to the upside you break hard above that 46 34 area seems like all-time highs may be coming at you not sure you're going to be able to do that depending on where yields are going because you put yields back on a daily we're right at that 50% line and again kind of a natural area that's the area that was support going back to july of this year going back to august you get a bounce also the area that's resistance from september also kind of where you rolled over in october excuse me in august so yeah we're back to what what is that price point just over 111 what's the full point above we're at right now a little bit of a pullback but boy it's been quite a rally and yeah you could just see some volatility playing out all right what else we got we were talking about restoration hardware yeah this thing had quite a fall from grace right check out the weekly long term you make a high of 7044 you base for a while you trade lower and looks like we're probably on a way to test these recent lows of 207 as you get restoration hardware they missed on their numbers cherry picking what they did here but let's see yeah net revenue 751 million they were looking for 757 home furnishings market still being hurt by a slow real estate environment that's from cmbc over there and they narrowed its full year guidance range narrowing that range but yeah shouldn't be surprising man when everybody's stuck in their home it's interesting to see what happens with some of these equities if we do get that pullback and yield over the next year or two folks thanks for starting off your non-farm payrolls friday with me stay tuned basal chatments up next don't forget about the opening call subscriber webinar check it out with those time