 Thank you chair and thank you for my previous speakers. Thank you all for Pitching up for what must be the graveyard shift now, and I'm glad the speakers before me We're able to keep you in twos to listen up to the stage This feels like a bit of a break session now at Brazil and Brazil and South Africa here my experience has been in government and I've keep wondering what has A friend done to me by inviting me to this conference. I'm meeting a sea of economists My background is in economic history, but I've worked in the presidency's office for quite a while So I'm a consumer of your work of economists and economic analysis we South Africa has been through a number of different plans since 1994 And I think we've you know often we've also solved whether these things have had any impact whatsoever and whether the past is looking whether the future is looking like the past as Garfield and his friend have been wondering here as well Having listened carefully to a lot of the discussion today I think there's a lot we can pick up but there's a lot that I want to also place before you as some of the challenges That our country has had to face We've had as I said an alphabet soup of plans. We've had the RDP gear ski-saw NGP I PAP NDP I'll come and explain them briefly, but I'm gonna deviate slightly from my paper and just look a little bit in detail at the developmental state and then look at Some of the contestation around the national development plan that we've had in South Africa I think some of you may know that the reconstruction and development program was launched just as the ANC came into power in 1994 it was arrived at through a quite Deep debates and discussions within what's referred to as the trapezoid alliance between the ANC the communist party and Kosal to the major trade union federation Very ambitious aimed at undoing the legacies of apartheid which were deep I think Martin de Villon had mentioned the issue about blaming Colonialism I'm afraid when you're trying to transform societies that have been subjected to centuries of colonialism It takes a while undoing that we feel that we still undoing that 20 years after democracy The RDP itself as indicated was arrived at through a lot of consensus and we brought into government at that time this deep sort Of process of democratizing and consulting and so forth so after two years Two years after 1994 the Minister of Housing of India was visiting and we were quite impressed with the housing program that we had rolling out houses by the thousands and After a couple of days people asking what's his impression and you know he says the problem with you South Africa's is that When you want to scratch your left ear you debate whether you should do it to the right hand Your left hand and then you appoint a commission you get a consultant and after a whole democratic process You think it's most effective to do it with your right hand and scratch your ear Just go and implement and this is one lesson I hope that wish we had learned at that point in time because we've continued producing plants and I think Implementation continues being one of the problem to now come back to that under the NDP the next major plan Some people see it almost as a rebuff to the reconstruction development program that had been developed as I said with the chocolate that alliance was gear the growth employment and redistribution framework Nelson Mandela opening Parliament in 1996 that we need a national vision to lift us out of this quagmire because we had realized There are just so many obstacles we had to be overcoming as a country in dealing with apartheid and You know, there's all kinds of prisons of gear that it was hatched in some dark room and all boys club and a new boys club It was a self-imposed structural adjustment program Etc. Etc. Now, I think you know that a lot of it love the program itself is associated with carbon Becky Who tried to argue? And this is a quotation from a speech you made at the Congress of the South African Communist Party where you're saying that look guys We had the RDP and what gear has done is trying to convert that into numbers He obviously had difficulty convincing a lot of people around that so up to today even You know a number of years that have gone by 14 or somewhat years If you if they if you want to have a career limiting move or you're gonna be unpopular in the left circle They'll tell you that you'd a gear a Parachute and you a pro gear or whatever and up to today that divide continues Between people of a pro gear active gear and so forth a Couple of years later in looking in trying to assess the implementation of gear there's a realization that there were certain binding constraints to the South African economy and One of that and this resulted in a deep evaluation of it Unfortunately again, you had a whole bunch of American professors consultants coming in and advising Treasury national treasure at that time and the presidency and so we had the what was called the accelerated shared growth initiative of South Africa as he saw we're very good at acronyms, by the way, sir and Gear as he saw etc But obviously this was dealing with macroeconomic issues infrastructure programs Industrial strategies skills and education intervention, but an important one I want to just touch on here And that is the second economy And I think some of you may have come across the term it was used by disraeli at some point to look at the Differences between majority of people that are poor Difficult to get out of a poverty trap and those that are in a kind of advanced economy side of the same society Now this connection between the second economy and the developed part of South Africa has Bedeviled all our planning and has been at the heart of a lot of our thinking as well More recently as in 2007 There was what's referred to as the industrial policy action plan that emerged out of as geysers Realization that we did need to focus on particular sectors And especially the ones where we had competitive advantages those that were labor intensive but also in dealing with Industrial financing trying to foster research and development which as a percentage of GDP had been going downwards addressing the spatial inequalities of apartheid That you know again, it's going to take us decades to move because if you remember that South Africa was one of the most perfectly segregated societies Blacks hardly ever moved into whites whites Maybe you'll count them by a finger On your hands. How many white families moved into black areas, etc. I think black economic empowerment to maybe a term that you may be familiar with we're looking at how we can improve the The level of equity level of access to the economy, but also representivity within the labor force, especially at the level of management and In 2009 when President Zuma came into power he came in through a process of removing power boom-bakey in the ANC conference Having an unwieldy alliance that brought him in as the head of ANC and then became president of the ANC in 2009 and he had a whole range of Elements in his cabinet some coming directly from the trade unions others from the Communist Party and other remnants from the Bakie cabinet One of the roles that is given to one of the new ministers had a trading background was to develop a new growth part Mentioned it because this ideological inclination obviously play a big role even within a one the same party in the same organization So a new growth part was set up looking at the problem I think a number of papers if you've been through any of the sessions previously on South Africa's labor statistics growing unemployment unable to deal with the kind of external Shocks but also unable to absorb those that were unskilled Whereas there was growth in the economy of new jobs. It's particularly Semiscaled and skilled labor. So unemployment a big challenge and the new growth part was supposed to address that Okay, now my slide diversion from the paper It'll take two minutes as a commercial and then we get back on to the national development plan I think a number of you may be aware of the concept of the developmental state It's emerged not so much as something that was well thought through but as a strategy that was developed by especially North Asian Country, not these Asian countries became very famous with Chalmers Johnson's 1982 assessment of Michi's role in Japan and the way it helped lift Japan Then Robert Wade's report on govern the market What was clear was that these countries differed in political systems some autocratic some with military some with democratic They differed on the dependence on international capital markets state on enterprise industrial strategies FDI Linda vice has been quite good at Debunking some of the much that they're not necessarily authoritarian It's not necessarily top-down centralized planning. It's like it wasn't Trade-off there isn't a trade-off between wealth and equity for growth It wasn't just about getting the politics right nor was it a unitary totality leading massive engineering The common denominator one of those that vice Identified is an external impetus. We're talking about on the security side Taiwan vis-a-vis China Korea, North Korea, Singapore vis-a-vis Malaysia And then the external impetus in China the whole catch up catch up to the West Other features of the development state as a strategic industrial policy Identifying where they could focus focus their resources in the comparative boundaries and then it's an incentive structure linked to performance so that you which had protection that has time limited and then at the sort of guidance which is actually Quite subtle most times and other times a little bit more rough and pushy in the way in the kind of role that they would want international Place to complain But I think the most important thing was state capacity, but state capacity has extended as indicated to people being to think of it as an authority It was state's prioritization Having political will needing to institutionalize a commitment a shared background of the professional cadres a number of them that were involved Either had studied together or had been in the military together in different planning section And then having a pilot agency like the renamed Japan's met you or Taiwan's IDB Okay, so coming back to South Africa the development think you're on the developmental state was Influencing a lot of the planners and so 2009 you have a new minister that's been appointed a minister with the previous minister of finance appointed to draw up a national development plan Comes out to the diagnostic report in 2011 and these are the kind of broad areas I think again, you know the kind of issues that we've been trying to cover with all the other plans that have come up the approach that that has taken was and does a six-point approach one was Uniting also africans around a common program achieving active citizenry bringing about fast economic growth through higher investment greater labor absorption focusing on the capable of people and then developing a capable and developmental state and Encouraging strong leadership throughout society leadership has become a big issue in the document Especially at local level schools level hospitals level and so where there's been a breakdown in many of the facets of leadership and management there The targets that we established reducing the proportion of people living below the live level of 480 in the 2009 figures From the current 39% to the population of the population is zero reducing unemployment to 6% in 2030 by creating 11 million jobs Manufacturing sectors growing by 50% along the lines of IPAP and the new growth part and then most importantly And this is the very direct poverty reduction areas reducing the cost of living my Containing price of basic commodities spatial interventions as I mentioned the part date intervention meant that the poorest work Has actually lived the furthest away from workplaces Hence focusing on transport improving the social safety net and free basic services This really unleashed the mother of all battles on the political side and all interestingly within the spectrum of the Trapatite Alliance One of the friends of the NDP and I think sometimes you wish you don't have friends from your from the certain quarters Was the leader of the Democratic Alliance? And I think the ANC at a point when it needed more friends from the trade union side Had a friend from the opposition side, which is still a largely white opposition party the Communist Party itself was Dismissive not willing to engage it saying it is pathetic weak on re-industrialization And then the trade union said that you know the definition of unemployment was too narrow It's taller 11 jobs too many low quality and unsustainable jobs as opposed to decent work Also depends disproportionate on exports SMME in service sectors unlike IPAP and NDP which focuses more on re-industrializing and then the NDP except the high level of inequality persisting until 2030 Currently our Jenny coefficient is about zero point six nine and the NDP says that we could probably reach zero point six by 2030 so obviously this of felt was not ambitious enough Okay to rush them to the conclusion and As I raised the question about do processes matter I think this is quite important especially given I think talking to the Brazilian experience as well There's a certain process that was followed, but does it matter the way? In the way the plan is implemented Certain process can stymie implementation like the attempt to try and arrive at a consensus position within the tripartite alliance People say well, you know, we need to find a way to moving on The my boss the executive director of mr. Institute said that it was the first time I realized there's a collective known for For cats he said there's a cloud of cats that we're trying to put together in trying to get the trade unions There's Communist Party in the ANC to agree on the process that we're going to be embarking on to agree on a particular program But on the other hand you may find that there was in the countries that were able to successfully Move from one generation of growth to another like Taiwan Korea and Japan It lost largely from the elite deciding to take action and moving ahead. So I think the whole Contestation what a democratic process or one that is elite driven. It'll be useful to discuss Content I think you know ideological leaning obviously has a big role to play versus the need for sharply focused Interventions that all parties can agree on it's not that easy to arrive at as we've seen with example that I have described Context and I think this again talks to the Brazilian paper whether the context of Rising global commodities makes a big difference or not in the Brazilian case It may have may have assisted in ensuring that the kind of growth that we did But South Africa was faced with the similar context and obviously did not take advantage of that and then obviously the regional economic development impact This is again a Related question to process because you know we need in having begun some of the plans There was a realization over this period that we need to have worked out our targets very clearly on the Specific intervention of making and we did not especially around the reconstruction development program and then required Post hoc justification of the figures that we're able to reach So that's in conclusion. I would like to say that the national development program is very much work in progress I look forward to your comments. Thank you