 Testing one two, testing one two. If you can hear me just let me know. I'm just going to give it a little bit of time before we get up and running. So hello and welcome to the live feed. I'm going to get things up and running in a moment. Of course you're joining for non-farm payroll so good to have you with us. Drop us a comment in the chat if it's coming through loud and clear. Zed. Hola. How's it going? Scotch and stocks. I do remember you left a comment actually that I didn't get a chance to respond to about the pound. So definitely keep them coming. I'll do my best to attack all of them as much as I can. Mo, hope you well. I'm just seeing who else we've got. Vikesh, Jordan, Avié, couple of familiar names. Omar Owen. Thanks very much for joining me. We'll give it another minute and then we'll go straight into payrolls because obviously we've got about 15 minutes for the event in itself kicks off. Just before I begin, don't forget that a bit of housekeeping. You can obviously follow me on Twitter if you don't already do so. Feel free to, I put out a daily note. First thing in the European morning for the day ahead, which a few people say they find useful, which is great. So you can look out for that and I just tweet the interesting stuff that I see from time to time, graphics and things like that. You might find it useful. We've got a new podcast episode coming out after payrolls. I'm going to have a chat with the head of trading peers, Curran, and we're going to talk about all things Facebook, social media given the episode that we saw at the beginning of the week and along the regulatory concern around big tech stocks, but we'll talk payrolls, we'll talk energy prices. So don't forget as well Spotify, Google, and Apple, all the normal podcast platforms. It's there if you need it. But yeah, great to have everyone on board. Hey, Hans. Hope you're well. Brian. Hello from Taiwan. Neil. Thanks as ever for watching. All right. Well, let's get straight to it then and talk a little bit about payrolls. We've got 14 minutes or so until the numbers hit. As I say, I deliver the briefings every morning. I know a lot of you are kind of subscribed to the channel already, but honestly, feel free to just drop me a comment on any of the videos that go out. You know, the purpose now is for me to help if I can and I'm going to try and set aside some allotted time each day. Well, I'll try to respond to everyone's questions and comments on YouTube. So I'll leave you with that. But yeah, let's talk about payrolls. And first off, I guess, the Savile Account and Markets, a trading going into this event. And it's been relatively quiet, but that's very much what you would expect ahead of the non-farm payroll report. So overall, equity index indices are really sideways so far. You can see that most defined by the S&P 500 here. Really tight price action after what was a really strong recovery seen in the back end of Wednesday through Thursday. And of course, a lot of alleviating fears via the US Senate voting to pass a short term kind of stopgap on the US debt ceiling. And as well as the market started just a climatized little bit to some of the scare around energy prices that we saw at the beginning of the week and those inflation expectations rising. And of course, we had those comments out of Vladimir Putin midweek, which has helped cap a little bit of that price rise. Otherwise, elsewhere, the dollar index currently trading at the moment, well, up one tenth, so up just marginally, in terms of the major pairs, in terms of euro-dollar, we're sitting at the top end of recent price activity over the course of the second half of the week, at least, sat around as R1. So just having a test up the top end of the range at the moment as we go into this data point and then cable pretty similar fashion, but finding some near-term resistance early this morning at the high that was printed yesterday afternoon, just after shortly the London FX fix. So very much just wait and see now for the jobs data to hit. So what can we expect? While I'm delivering this, the comments are over here on one of my other screens. So what I'll do is I'll do the delivery and then I'll pick up any questions that you guys might have. Okay. So let's talk payrolls. So let me just adjust my screen. So this is what we're looking at here. And this is the previous non-farm payroll reports that we've had. And it's been a little bit seesaw. Last month certainly was a downside surprise at 235,000, because what we were seeing was a really positive trend, which albeit somewhat has been slightly slower than perhaps in the summer of what people were expecting in return to the labour market as vaccinations have continued to get rolled out. We obviously had the COVID wave that caused a lot of complications, but even that in itself is starting to move in a downward slope at the moment in terms of US cases, thankfully. And so, yeah, we've had a bit of seesaw movement here. And we are expecting per Wall Street expectations for this number to bump back up to around the 500k mark. And so the summer wave of COVID-19 kind of subsiding, which is allowing them in particular, the kind of more high contact service industry to return to some degree of normality of whatever that is in a post pandemic world. So leisure, hospitality, those job sectors, which we know were incredibly hit hard during the onset of the pandemic, and have been seeing the biggest proportionate movement in terms of gains when we've had upside figures, as expected to really materialize this time again as well. In terms of the number on the headline, it's expected at 500k, the range is 250 at the low to 700 at the high. We'll circle back to market reaction, but I don't really feel like either side of that is too dramatic, to be quite honest, 250 or 700. And the reason for that is the fact that the market's pretty much ready to go for this idea that the Fed are going to commence tapering, come the announcement in the November meeting. This is very much the last payrolls report we get before the November 2nd and 3rd meeting of the FMC. And that just given the comments that we've had from drone pal in the most recent meeting, his comments to reporters, he said most recently, it would take a reasonably good employment report to meet the central bank's kind of threshold then for starting to reduce this bond buying, so commencement of tapering. And what does he mean by reasonably? Well, as I kind of commenting on the briefing this morning, but to recap, most banks say that anything at the kind of 250 and overmark would fit those conditions. And so unless we saw a number today that's like 100k, 50k, so just to quantify that, that would be way worse than even the most pessimistic estimate on the street, then that would be perhaps one cause for reevaluation over the timing of tapering. But again, that's a very low probability. If that does occur, obviously the impact factor would be much larger, based on the notion that that's not what markets are priced or positioned for. And particularly just given some of the weight felt in the likes of the tech sector in the equity space this week, earlier by rising yields, increasing inflation expectations, which is due to the detriment of particularly large mega cap tech stocks, which benefit in a lower rate environment, then they could be the biggest benefactors of such an outcome. But again, it's a very low probability scenario. The other things then to talk about our holiday season. So we've talked about already the idea that the hot leisure and hospitality sector should start to bounce back on more activity happening restaurants, bars, things like that, as COVID has come back down more recently. But a rebound in hiring and retailers gearing up for the holiday season could also be a factor as well that will contribute to a bit of a lift. So kind of having temporary staff there in the preparation of Christmas and Thanksgiving, other holidays as well that are on the horizon. The other thing that people look at is high frequency data. So these would be things like open table, Google mobility, tracking people's kind of rates of which people are returning to the workplace or taking public transportation, go into the park, these types of things. And actually, if you look at high frequency data points, if we're looking at things like restaurant dining, for example, or travel or hotel stays, these things have been pointing in an upward direction, which would be indicative of a decent uptick in activity, suggesting then that again, leisure and hospitality should be seeing a supportive factor for this report. So it kind of offsets any notion then that this report would be weak. The balance, I would say, given what I'm discussing is that, you know, to lock it in at 500K, or perhaps even an upside surprise could be could be in store. I guess on an upside surprise, how would I expect the markets to react? Well, the argument, of course, from a policy perspective would be this idea that, sorry, I really should turn my phone off when I do these things. But yeah, from a policy impact, if we had a really high number, and it was say a million, would I necessarily think equities would sell off? Perhaps a little bit, I don't think it would be a meaningful shift. And we see a big multi percentage down day in US equities. Because the point being is that tapering has already been pretty much baked in at this point, November is pretty solid, as far as most people are anticipating. So I don't think an 800K number really accelerates that to a point where people start thinking, right, yeah, we've got to then bring forward rate, high expectations, so on and so forth. And also as well, the yields have been moving to the upside quite aggressively already this week. So don't forget as well that an upside number is going into an already pre-position market that's been reacting to a more timely tightening on the back of inflation rising, or at least expectations of. And so I'd say perhaps it's a little bit more limited, albeit I would expect the market to see some reaction. And that reaction most likely probably would be equities lower. You might see yields pops, a T-notes retest the lows, gold might come under some selling pressure, under an outlying positive conditions. So other things are government payrolls. So remember the list, there's a breakdowns, a lot of numbers that come out, of course, with non-farm payrolls. So as much as the market reacts to the first input, or at least the algos do, we are looking at for things like government payrolls, they're likely to have rebounded, schools have fully reopened now for in-person learning. So generally speaking, more people then in-person remember schools don't just run on teachers, you need people, maintenance, operations, all these different types of things that would constitute a school workforce in person, or then meaning that that activity side of things starts to pick up because they've got to go to work, they got to get lunch, and so on and so forth. Manufacturing employment probably did slow though, it's still being constrained, particularly around the auto manufacturing sector, supply chips have led to then a lot of production being halted at the likes of General Motors and Ford most recently, so that might be a bit of a soft spot. And yeah, that's pretty much it. So yeah, we're looking for a little bit of a rebound here. As far as the unemployment rate is concerned, the level of employment, if we get a 500k reading, would be about 4.8 million jobs below the peak seen in February 2020. So we've still got around a good 5 million gap to get back to employment in the US at pre-pandemic levels. And unemployment rate dropped to 5.2% last month, that was the lowest since March of 2020, but was in line with expectations. The labour market continued to steady recovery following businesses reopening in the US, despite reports of labour supply shortages and also some of that lingering aft effects of the COVID surge we had in the summer. So we are seeing a continuous downward trend in this fashion. As far as the pre-indicators of jobs this week has gone, ADP came in above expectations at 568,000. In fact, it was the most in three months. And as you can see here, it's quite a decent uptick from around the kind of 330 average that we had seen in the previous two readings. So ADP was generally positive. ISM manufacturing PMI, the actual headline figure increased and was up for a second month and above market expectations. As far as the employment component was concerned, a very minor improvement into slight expansionary territory, 50.2 against the previous 49. As far as the services PMI was concerned, the employment component was pretty much the same, 53 against previous 53.7. And then we've had Americans filing for new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 326,000 in the last week. So back to a more positive of what otherwise was an increasingly negative trend that had been seen over the course of the last month. So on the balance, you would say reason then given the data that we have seen of a positive potential number. All right, we've got about 90 seconds. I'm going to turn on the squawkers now. So let me just adjust my screen slightly. So you're going to hear the team, the squawk team read out the news as it happens. So just over one minute now to the bottom of the hour, we will of course lead off with the US jobs report, then have a look at the Canadian payroll seen at 500,000 from 235 unemployment seen ticking down to 5.1 from 5.2 earnings seen up 0.4% month on month and 4.6% year over year. Okay, we just got about 45 seconds. Again, given this is live on YouTube, there is a slight delay. So just be aware of that. I'll make my charts bigger as I talk through them. So I'll bring them into shock to make it a little bit easier for you guys to see 10 seconds at the bottom of the hour. That looks like 194,000 for the headline there wages at 0.6 above the 0.4 estimate year on year 4.6 in line. Prime metrics of the wages have been revised lower hours work 34. Okay, I'm just going to jump in here. So yeah, that headline 194,000 to 194,000. So that is below the lowest estimate on the street. So that's why you've had an initial blip higher. You can see here top charts euro, dollar, cable and gold all initially spiking up because this is the opposite of what readings like ADP were suggesting. The other numbers, the unemployment rate that was dropped to 4.8 versus 5.1%. That's a meaningful drop in unemployment. The average hourly earnings is actually higher month on month 0.6 against the expected 0.4 year on year in line at 4.6%. The participation rate 61.6 against previous 61.7. So a little bit cautioned here I'd say because you can see the initial knee jerk reaction was this was quite a bad headline number. So the dollar popped lower and so gold and euro, dollar cable popped higher. However, as you can see after that explosion at the initial release, it's been unwilling to carry that on and it's actually started to pull back quite aggressively because counterdictory or contradictory to the headline, the unemployment rates dropped and average hourly earnings are higher, which would both be forces that would offset then any weakening dollar on the headline. So you've kind of got a low amount of jobs created but contradicting that then the unemployment rate has improved and average hourly earnings are going up. So just having a look at some of these other reactions then it's equally reflective of a little bit of a confused data set of which this definitely is on first glance. And you can see here that T-notes again reacted in that same kind of algorithmic response fashion first in, first out type response is reacted to the 194 low ball headline and actually then popped higher but it came immediately back down. One of the other things is the previous 235,000 reading we had last month has been revised up to 366,000 which is another net positive. So there's a three or four things here that are more positive and only one negative which was the headline number which is why you're seeing these types of reactions at the moment. Equities if anything have moved a little bit lower and so the reaction though relatively contain comparative to say the FX and gold market. So just continue to keep an eye on the S&P here. It's been consolidating really through the morning in a fairly tight range as you can see here. And yeah, this is one of those reports for payrolls where, you know, you don't have to just hit it every time with payrolls. One of the things is it is a multifaceted report and so the release can take a bit of time to be chewed over by people, particularly when you've got mixed numbers like this. So yeah, this is pretty mixed at the moment. I'll turn the squawk back on and let's see. I'll bring up the actual BLS report and see if there's any other underlying details of interest. So it's just going into some of the commentary for this to provide some colour. Employment and food services and drinking places changed little for the second straight month versus an average monthly gain of 197,000 from Jan through July, BLS says. Private education also changed little. Most back to school hiring typically occurs in September they note. Hiring this September was lower than usual resulting in a decline of seasonal adjustments. Just going through the other bones of the release here. The two month net revision on 69,000 up versus up 134,000 and just a quick look at the further breakdown. Private payrolls comes in at 317,000 way short the 455,000 street was modelling for manufacturing payrolls at 26,000, more or less in line with the expected 25 and government payrolls decline 123,000 prior was down 8,000. Yeah, so just to be clear on a couple of points because I can see a few questions. So is the Fed going to taper in November given this report? My answer would be yes. Nothing from this report changes. I think significantly the timeline behind what has already been prepped for which is the November announcement. And the reason for that is kind of similar to what I was saying although this number was below the bottom end of expectations. That loan is not enough because if the unemployment rate was high and the average hourly earnings was low and the previous month's NFP was revised down, then sure, I think you'd have a case to say that well maybe November's not locked in and when they might need to delay it. But the other summary parts of this would be suggesting that there's enough there to to press ahead with the Fed's plan. So again, I don't really think it changes the timing on tapering. So the Fed, the Fed will go ahead unless something happens between now and obviously in that next meeting happening in about three and a half weeks. Equities then reflecting this really no sustained reaction at all. The one thing that you are seeing is gold is probably the only one that's seeing a little bit of movement here. So it's just had another little look at the upside up about $15 now in the session. So just coming out into a 90 minute candlestick, you can see here we've just broken out above the highs that were seen on Monday, going into overnight Tuesday session. And that then just pushing us up towards this R2 here in this most recent rally for the Yellow Metal. Upside, you've got that high point on the 23rd of September, which would come in around 1777 if you're looking at the futures market. But yeah, perhaps quite a little bit exacerbated further on the trigger through that high that we saw at the beginning of the week. And that takes us to a roughly two week high now in gold prices. The FX market, yeah, the dollar is hanging back a little bit. Nothing too dramatic. If anything, the Nasdaq is actually seeing a move to session highs now in the futures market. Again, kind of twofold, I'd say here, probably for the Nasdaq a combination of it could have been a lot worse. Perhaps then you get a really strong payrolls report across the board and not only does that lock in November, but it really accelerates this idea about how aggressive they need to be with the timing of the reduction of bumping and then the pricing in of subsequent rate hikes and bringing that forward. But this number would suggest a more rational, cautious approach to that normalization process. And so yeah, the Nasdaq kind of enjoying it for the moment. And then the second point is just breaking out of that high that was seen in the overnight APAC session, just helping us stretch our legs here in the Nasdaq future. Coming up to level here, I'd keep an eye on though for any fast money move, you can see this level of support resistance here from what was kind of the exit of European trade from yesterday into the afternoon trade in New York. And we've just come up to test that now in the Nasdaq. So interested to see how it reacts around here. If not, you've then got kind of a three fold. Well, smash through there, you can see. So three fold here, you've got the R1 in the futures market with 15,000. And then you've got the higher that was seen yesterday on the upside. So decent level resistance there if it continues to move higher. You can see here the bigger broader move here looking on the daily for the Nasdaq for the session ahead is if we break out above 15k, then you've got the 50 DMA, which has been quite a key level. You can see that here really nicely back on the 19th of August and a few other points as well in recent weeks and months. And so that 50 DMA with that horizontal area of resistance as well prior, what was all time highs in the summer would be the next kind of logical upside target 15169 or 70. All right, I'm just going to see if there's any questions or anything that people have at the moment. You're still holding your gold long. So yeah, good job. Is there a correlation between the 10 year and Bitcoin? Hmm. Well, if there was a correlation between the 10 year and Bitcoin, let's have a look. Bitcoin was seeing a little perhaps a tiny bit of movement, but no, not really. So I generally speaking, I mean I don't have data to support that answer. It's not a correlation that I would look at typically would love to have someone present a case to me about any correlation between Bitcoin and a traditional asset. But no, it's not something I would look at. I definitely would go kind of like with technical analysis, right? You don't want to look at a really niche correlation, because sure, it might be in play for a limited point in time. But you want a lot of people looking at the same correlations, because then it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, kind of like with technical tools on a chart. You don't want some super fancy niche technical tool. Because if no one else is using that tool, then no one else is going to react when that signal comes. And so I kind of think the same with correlations. I definitely prefer the correlations of traditional assets. And when I'm looking at kind of timing, momentum, things like that, and judging sentiment, I typically like to just look at the four major asset classes. So commodities, equities, FX and fixed income. But yeah, I'd love to see it. Yeah, just drop me an email. My email is a dot chung at amplified trading dot com. Shoot me an email. I'd love to read anything that you've got. I'll pop my email in the chat now. There you go. What's my thoughts about holding trades over the weekend? Well, depends really what your typical time horizon is of your investment. I mean, if you're trading, if you're day trading, I would say more often than not, you'd probably close out your position. There's always a risk even if there's no identifiable one in terms of a scheduled event. There's always a risk of something occurring at the weekend. That for sure is 10x if you're trading crypto and you're day trading crypto. I for sure you've got to be just on it seven days a week. So yeah, normally in the days gone by of the prop arm that we had, all our day traders would close their positions over the weekend. If you're swing trading on holding more multi day weak positions, then yeah, you can keep position on over the weekend. So it really depends to answer that question. Yeah, Ken, just to say you are right. I mean, gold moving up would be indicative of the Fed not tapering. But I think don't get too confused with non tapering. I don't I definitely don't think that this is enough to constitute not tapering. It's just enough to constitute not moving forward rate height expectations more aggressively than what had already occurred earlier in the week because of the scares around inflation pertaining to the sharp rises in energy, gas and oil and things that we've been seeing. So I think if anything, it's just kind of like a bit of a relief rally almost for gold with the addition of the technical breaks, just helping exacerbate some of that price action. You can see the 1777 area we were just talking about, which is that prior high back on the 23rd set, the markets kind of run up to that. And you can see gold's quite a volatile product characteristically. And so you want to be quite proactive managing your holding of a trade like that in response to the data. And so whether it's the breakout or then booking some of the R2, then that high, and you just kind of managed to trade accordingly. Yeah, in terms of the S&P, so Andrew hope you well. Yeah, in terms of the S&P, you just got to wait. I mean, I definitely for sure would not recommend anyone just jump in the S&P now and just think, yeah, this market's going up or down to be quite frank. No one knows. That's what the chart is telling you and the data is mixed. And so I definitely would prefer to wait until the volume pick up in 45 minutes on the open on the nizy. And then, you know, the one golden rule, I think of payrolls or one of them that I've always kind of observed over the years is I think there's over an over tendency, particularly for retail traders to want to jump in over and immediately after payrolls. And what I'm saying is, is that I've seen it take an hour longer for people to really come to a coordinated conclusion and start to really then see a definitive direction for the rest of the afternoon. So there's definitely no rush. And I definitely with equities prefer to see the open. You can see here that move in the nasdaq. You see that 15 K that we were looking at? See it raced up to 15 K and then soon as it got close, you can imagine, you know, a lot of people will be looking at the tape, watching the bids or the offers get lifted. And then as that momentum, which which when you look at a ladder, well, I can bring it up here. In fact, let's have a look if I can pop it out. So let's bring up the nasdaq so I can just talk you through what I'm referring. So this is the nasdaq here, right? So you're looking at the bids and offers and you can see it's quite volatile. That's typically the case. I mean, the nasdaq is a pretty lively character. And, you know, one thing that you do in combination, I think as you there's many different tools you can use, of course, more in depth, technical analysis, market profile, these types of things. For me, I just like looking at correlations. I like looking at the candlestick movement and I like looking at the movement on the ladder just to give me a sense of you know, the nature of the move. And what I mean by that is as we were blasting higher there in the nasdaq, you've got to be managing that trade and taking some off. And so, you know, just remaining long thinking, yeah, we're going to bust 15,000, it's really rocketed high, it's going to break through there and keep going. It might, but I would be much more inclined to be thinking, right, I need to be taking out chunks of that trade as it's developing and would be the way that I've seen other traders have the greatest success in the past. So, sorry, the ladders, I know it's slightly covered by my head when I'm talking it through. So let me move it up a bit, you'll be able to see. Okay, let's have a look. Yeah, silver's had a nice pop as well. So definitely just dollar. Let's have a look at the Dixie. And the dollar's not really extended yet, but obviously it was a negative initial pop on the actual announcement. The pair's still remaining a touch higher. But certainly silver and gold, the most lively both that they're around their respective R2s in the futures. Ed, hope you're well. Timing of taper relatively telegraph, should this figure not bring about a more traditional response in stocks, i.e. significant misleading to a risk off move? I don't disagree with what you're saying. I guess it's because of in when put all together, I don't think this report is necessarily that bad. I think if it was the opposite, yes, the headlines bad, but if all the other numbers were in the opposite direction as they've come out, then I think then you might see the reaction that you've described. So yeah, I think you would have had to have seen unemployment go up, average earnings go low and the big miss and the down the vision on the previous. And then, yeah, perhaps then, well, even then, this is why then it does equities rally because they delay tapering. You know, this is the catch too. And what I guess I'm thinking this through as I'm describing it, equities are really hard to trace under those conditions because you're right. It's a bit of a, well, if this means this, does it mean that? And then if this is this and that is that, does it mean they do this? There's just so many ways that are not clearly defined on how the Fed might make their decisions that I think equities makes life incredibly more difficult. And so in this scenario, I know Ed, you're an S&P trader, so it doesn't really help. But I guess for one, I would say if you had access to other products, then the rates market, the effects market might be more clean in terms of to be out of trade. And then two, if you are going to trade the S&P, I still think you wait. I think you just wait, you guess, and get in early. I think you just have to wait. I mean, you can see this move is pretty indecisive. You know, the NASDAQ is exactly back to where it was trading. And so I don't think really that would be I don't think there's enough on offer here to commit either way. At this point, I'd rather let the price show me what's going how it's being perceived by the market and then see if you can get on the back of that. If that makes sense. Okay, look, I need to wrap it up, guys. So hopefully that was useful. Don't forget that you can, again, I know most of you who I can see your names. I know most of you are traders. But as you might well have seen Amplify has kind of changed direction as a business. So hopefully you caught the rationale behind that in some of the recent podcasts and posts and things that we've been doing. If there are any students on the feed at the moment, please do check out amplify me.com. This is what it looks like. It will give you access then to our portal. So this is what it looks like. This is all completely free. And it gives you access then to lots of cool stuff that you can click into. There's like videos here that don't exist publicly online, stuff like that. And then you can see this little flashing button here. You can take part in one of our simulations that gets used at all of our corporate clients and stuff like that. And if you're really good, which is the intention of this is to open this up to any student from any background. You can do this. And if you perform well, there's a chance that we can fast track you as under our corporate clients. So definitely worth checking that out. I'll leave that for the students. Otherwise for the traders, you can just sign up for the newsletter on the homepage. Just scroll down to the bottom. So I've started doing a daily newsletter where I just kind of talk very informally about a major theme in market of that day. So if anyone wants to kind of skill up on their their fundamentals, then I'm happy to have you in that community as well. Podcast coming out later. So I'll try and wrap everything up with peers. Talk about a few of these things in more detail. And yeah, that is it. So again, sorry, I can't get around to everyone's questions. But feel free to shoot me a message. My email is there. a dot chung amplify me dot com. Feel free to shoot me a line. No problem at all. It'd be amazing if you could check out the podcast. It's probably one of the things that I didn't think I would, but I enjoy the most, actually, because it's, you know, it's super casual. Peers has got some real, you know, nuggets of just pure genius that he comes out with on a lot of this stuff. You know, given he's such an experienced guy and if I can help get some of that out and share it with you guys, that's the intention. So yeah, check it out. Just search for amplify me market maker. All right. Thanks so much, guys. Stay safe and yeah, have a great weekend.