 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Every training day, live at 10 a.m. Eastern. Call now. Call free at 877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. The TFNN Bull Bear Training Hour. Now, Tommy and Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. Tommy O'Brien. I'm fortunate today to be joined by our man, Basil Chapman, filling in for Tom. Basil, good morning. Good morning to you. How are you? I'm doing well, man. Happy post-4th of July. How was your fourth? It was very good. Quiet, but good. Usually we'd go to some friends on the fourth this year. We're going to be doing it on Sunday, so it's delayed, but that's good. Yeah, it's a little bit of an interesting holiday, right? You get half a day Wednesday. You get off Thursday. For us, a lot of people off Friday, but you got to come back to work on Friday because a lot of the celebrations last night, I was fortunate actually. Bloomberg played the Boston Pops with those fireworks, so I was watching those at home last night, ringing in. Yeah, and what a beautiful day. They do. They do such a great job. Absolutely. You know, some people go on the day before and get their seats in there. Right? They want those front row Esplanade seats. That's right. That's right. Got to love it. It's interesting because it was 1929 when the Boston Pops started with Arthur Fiedler. Amazing. Yeah. History is amazing, man. The world has changed a lot since 1929. 90 years, amazing. That doesn't even feel like 90 years. I was born 80, but it's 2019, amazingly enough. Back to the market, folks. We got a negative action to start things off. The Dow negative 144 points, trading 26, 8, 21. We got S&Ps negative by about 18, trading at 29, 77. Nasdaq negative by 52, turning at 8,117. Jobs number coming in this morning. Big number, 224,000. The market reacting, the potential for maybe not as high of a probability of a rate cut. You're seeing yields, 10-year jumping from about 1.98 back to 2.05. Market pulling back a bit on the probability that there might not be as high of a probability of that rate cut coming. So Basil, what's your take on the market reaction and this jobs number? Pretty interesting that it's quite a world we live in where you get great economic news and the markets always worry that that means things are too good and the rates are going to come back. It's an inverse relationship almost to how it used to be, but that is the reality we live in. So, there were a couple of things going on. What I was telling my subscribers to my opening call because we've been long since the low of June the 3rd, and I had said when I was doing my work over the weekend, in fact I did quite a lot of work from the close on Wednesday through Thursday night time just to go through a lot of charts, I did a lot of work on stuff that I don't ever get a chance to look at in depth and that was really very, I would say it was very rewarding to do that. So this is what I, the conclusion I'd come to already back on Wednesday I said I anticipate that in the next few days we're going to make some kind of a top in the market and it's a top that could be, I'll call it a short term top, but I think it could be a surprise and a lot of things could be changing and I'll explain why if I've got a moment. Go for it. So in the Dow we always look at, let me just do this real quickly here, this is patterns we always, the core patterns in the Chapman wave we try to identify a low bar, merely count E successively higher bar, every higher peak, up a case on the way up, when you get to the 4th highest peak A, B, C, D, that D is where other things can happen, it's as simple as that, the object of the Chapman wave methodologies to get you from that low point to at least a D, then it could recycle a whole bunch of things, but at D that's what you've got to be careful of, I think there are only three particular patterns in the market straight up straight down like this left side horizontal, I'm sorry, diagonal line, then there's a cup formation or a cup formation or an arch formation and then you can get a combination, so basically you're looking at straight up straight down, you got the arch or you got the cup and those could be V shaped patterns but it's the same principle, going from one point, rounding, coming back to it, testing it, rounding up to one point, coming down and then going back to test that upside action, so now let's get rid of this and see exactly what's happening here, so we've got that low bar from the right here on the third, at the low of 24,680 we start up and we go straight up and what do we get to, we get to a peak C, but within that context is a pattern that I call the Chapman Wave inside track repellent zone and you can see right here, it means that when you get into this area, there's a good chance that unless you snap right through it, this is going to be a repellent zone, if it was on the way down, it would be a propellent zone, but this is leg C in the down, but look at this, the S and P right here, you've got to a leg D, it's probably a peak D today, what do I always say, D is where you've got to be somewhat careful and look at the QQQ, it went to an E, so everything there was telling me that we are in a very important moment in terms of price and time and that I'm anticipating, I say to subscribers, let's take a little bit off our long position because I think we're getting to the area where there's going to be a lot of resistance, so at the open or if people were able to do it before the open, we got out of a little bit of our long position in the down and because of that, I'm saying that with the down, there should be somehow some way, I don't know how this works, but there should be another nominal new high in the down to a leg D, that'll be above the high of Friday, which was 26,966, my automatic Chapman wave projections of resistance and support, right here you can see 26,999, that's right, yeah, 999 is going to be a resistance and we got that peak D in the 120-minute chart and we're pulling back, so that's one area. Now, if we look at the bonds, this is also going to be very interesting because bonds, I said, let's be careful here, I think the yields are going to have a little bit of a balance and here we've gotten, we don't know yet because today is, what was the high, 157, 237, sorry, 157 and 230 seconds on the fourth and that was overnight, I guess that was last night where the market was open overseas, 157 and 230 seconds, so we are in a leg D with a strong rate candle, I suspect that the bonds are going to be pulling back a little bit right here, but look at gold and the reason why, I think this is such an important moment, look at the gold, we made a peak F and we did a double top and now we're pulling back sharply, so if you're looking at the different important areas and I was going to ask you questions, so let me just finish to say, I think this is a very important moment, I would not be surprised if the market is in the process of making some kind of a shorter term top and even if there's a normal new high in the Dow, nothing is going to go much higher than the high of Wednesday and that's where I stand, my question to you is, since your dad's deep into real estate as well as having the gold newsletter, what do you think about the rates right now? Yeah, it's, if you can figure out rates like we always say, you'll figure out the whole piece of the pie as in they seem to be driving everything and that's what's so interesting is these jobs numbers come out and the market takes things inversely as in if things are going too well, then that means that the cuts might not be coming down the line and sitting at 2%, we've had such a run, I mean you did a great job of looking at those markets, when you look at the Dow, what did we go, 2,000, 2,500 points in the Dow in the month of June alone? It was a fact, absolutely. You know, the cues I think you just had went from 170 to 195, you're talking about 25 points when it was trading at 170, what's that 15% in the month of June, let alone where rates have come from and the run that gold has had, so it's natural and you know, it's great to see it on your Chapman wave, it's natural to get these kind of pullbacks I think when you've had that type of a run, so we'll finish it up right after this break, folks, come on back in three minutes. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. Whether we're in a bull or bear market, a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade. 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TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. 873 7618 folks. I'm Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning. We got markets hanging around negative territory. Dow still down about 150 S&P is negative by about 22 7 tenths percent. Nasdaq negative by about 60 about 7 tenths percent percent as well. So Basil just finished in that conversation we were having in terms of these moves. I was just playing around with some of the Fibonacci retracements that we've had since that June 3rd run basically up into the highs we had as of Wednesday. And I got the chart up here. So you know the 38% retracement level is pretty decently below anywhere we're at. Now the Q's they made a run from about 170 up to 191 44. You know you put a Fibonacci there if you want to get to the 38% you all you got to get all the way back down to basically 183 we're trading at 189 78 looking at the gold contract. Pretty similar action. I had this down here. So we went gold. I mean pretty remarkable. We're trading at 1280 on coming into June. We've reached 1442 the 38% on that number about 1380 so much closer to that number. We almost made it down there in the beginning of this week. Right. And then we got quite a flush up to almost 1440 again for that kind of double top that you want to keep your eye on for sure. But you know it's not like it's an unhealthy pullback maybe not the best case scenario getting that double top but still above that 38% and then I just pulled up the TLT for a quick reference for the bonds and similar story. I mean huge run right TLT was sitting there at about 125 makes it all the way up to 134 the 38% on that is still more than a solid point 1381 as we sit in the 10 year at what 2.05 2.06 yeah 2.068% right now in the 10 year I have. So you know when I see that pullback that's kind of what I look to you know when we start getting back to those numbers if this really gets deep into that range then I'll have to kind of reevaluate but as of right now not kind of the end of the world you know you'd want to keep your eye on things for sure because it's interesting today being such kind of an obscure day in terms of the market action what we may see so slow in the market a lot of people even if they don't have off and they would probably take off right you know in terms of a weekend holiday July 4th you take off Friday and you get yourself almost a four and a half five day weekend so the roads were absolutely empty so yes mine was as well as Florida and I also heard that on Wednesday the the the ride down to the Cape was busy as of like 11 a.m. as in the Wednesday they they're also as well. Yeah, they were off to be backed up. Yeah, so that would make sense as in everyone's away for the weekend. So to be really interesting to see how things happen on Monday when kind of people are back in action as much as much as you can be for a July Monday but back in action kind of taking heat of what this means for the rate cuts coming down the line and what it means for the market. Well two things one is if you're looking at the Philadelphia housing sector index the data has just gone to a leg D and making a peak D as we speak the technicals are good but there's a pattern I always look for is like an M shaped pattern in the MACD the moving average convergence divergence and this right side is showing the price went up much sharper than the technicals and that says yep at 318 it could pull back towards a 315, 310 area just give back some of the gains that were made but it's huge gain going from 227 in December to the most recent high a few days ago 324. I mean this is 100 points in in the housing sector index and the all-time high was 369 in January of 2018 slumped down to the 227 level quite a move kind of it's about yeah it's made it's made over 50% you know you can understand there's a bit of a breather but I did want to mention you were talking in your really excellent concise that was the 10 a.m. market update you were talking about the semis so look at the SMH's I was waiting to jump over quite a move today yeah well I what I did was as I say I had time to do a couple of things I like to do overlapping where you've got the core something that's very important then you overlap something else it kind of correlates nice in this case the SMH's that's the red pattern you can see here and the green is teledyne well I've followed teledyne for years and years decades actually that's it's now called teledyne what is it technologies and they're into semiconductors and other other tech the electronic technology area and also different gas meters and things like that but the semis is really important they made a new all-time high let me show the actual chart right here just the other day they went that yeah and I said a peak C as well that went to 279 said spectacular move from 232 just in june but the low was 190 in December so this is a spectacular move a move and this is crazy I was talking to your dad about the billing to the semiconductor industry and I showed him charts from January and February and March and the semiconductors had taken out taken off in a fantastic move to the upside they went from in fact 97 to the most recent high just on the first of July to 115 but the billing has been terrible except I don't have the latest figures but even the April showed that there was probably a minus 20 or something which is I mean that's that's really quite negative yeah so sometimes the indexes or the stocks get away from the around there's a divergence between the emotional part where people are buying sure and the technical I like to do an MRI of the patient and the x-ray yes there's well wait a minute so is this teledyne and first of all is the semiconductor telling us that the billings are starting to improve well some Samsung just came out and said things are not great I was waiting to drop that the second quarter profit likely fell 56% from a year ago was the headline yeah so look the estimators are down $1.70 today but that's a fabulous percentage move so this says to me now I've got a lot of work over the weekend to do because I'm trying to project out to say wait a minute teledyne doing this well it must be other parts of the business as well yes can't just be the semis yes it's it's getting kind of complicated in the sense that we're in unexplored territory right now we're looking at all-time highs we're looking at a lot of diversions in statistics that are coming up and the prices and some of it's good and some of it's bad so this is a period where I think you got to be a little bit cautious just to say wait a minute we're looking at the lowest yields that we've had in decades over the past four or five years and it's still at the lows and yet the housing sector you would expect that the housing sector the correlation to me would say hey wait a minute housing should be at all-time highs so they're not they've had a really good rally but they're only kind of halfway from the well-time high so trying to put the whole picture together makes it a lot more complex there's there two ways to look at it either you do a lot of homework or you just simply say you know what this is a mega bull market the rates are the lowest they've been people have nowhere else to put their money just back off go on holiday take a wool trip to a we're going higher I mean that's an easy way to you know what I'm saying yes it's been easy because that's been the reality for nine years right it's pretty amazing horrible headlines and you just keep making new highs it is pretty amazing we'll see if we can continue but I know just Wednesday we're s&p's new highs right across the board and uh and we might have rate cuts to go along with that how do we we'll see we're going to continue this conversation in three minutes folks come on back with us hi folks Tom O'Brien here if you like to get my daily newsletter market insights then now is a great time to sign up for a 30 day free trial every morning by 9 30 I send out my morning letter to subscribers with market commentary on a variety of markets currencies and commodities to keep investors up to date on the day's trading action included in market insights are specific buy and sell recommendations for stocks ETFs and even options with stops and price targets included for every trade in my newsletter if you'd like to try my newsletter risk free for 30 days then head over to the front page of TFNN and you'll find market insights under trading newsletters I use my years of trading experience to bisect and dissect the market every 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designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days weeks or even months searching to find and right now we're offering licenses available at only seventy nine dollars a month we are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30 day unconditional money back guarantee don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com folks Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning we got markets slipping a little bit into more negative territory down now negative one seventy seven S&P's negative twenty three Nasdaq negative by sixty five Basil I just want to dig into that actual payroll and what is in there for a moment because that of course driving a lot of the action that we're getting this morning so the headline number of course we've heard it many times two hundred and twenty four thousand jobs added in June expectation had been about one sixty five unemployment rate actually hedging a bit higher from three point six to three point seven still right next to that fifty year low wage growth three point one percent year over year pretty much in line with expectations and I just want to break down where those jobs actually came from always kind of interesting to see professional and business services led the job gains with fifty one thousand health care added thirty five thousand transportation and warehousing contributed another twenty four construction coming in with twenty one thousand and manufacturing despite teetering on contraction recently saw seventeen thousand jobs added and then you get uh let's see uh so that's pretty much a breakdown there so interesting those are very important areas yeah right no I I agree um one of the things we had talked to Kevin Hinks about is that you know you might see in the coming months a tick up in government jobs having to do with the census coming in 2020 that will contribute in some capacity these non-farm payroll numbers coming in at some point um I didn't see that number up there so far but we'll keep our eye on it but decent numbers man across the board in very important categories like you're talking about you know whether it's health care professional business services construction twenty one thousand always good to see construction manufacturing um numbers for the economy for sure and you know I had a question it was just sent to me isn't the market going down because the jobs report might mean no rate cut or reduced rate cut in July curious on your thoughts so um you know there are a couple of things going on the Fed is in a situation where the market is kind of taking care of a lot of things without them doing very much and at the same time the way they look at the figures the way they've announced that they're going to be looking at the figures and they have looked at the figures before means that exactly what you were talking about when you mentioned the jobs these are the particular jobs that really count because this is what leads to more growth in the sense that now um people can afford houses a little easier yes because the job security but it wasn't that over the last six months what I've noticed is that the number of how do I put this the number of switches in jobs in other words people have become comfortable enough to resign or quit their job okay move to a better paying job or a job that they want and that to me is always the criteria that's most important because when the comfortability factor increases three things are happening one is it means a certain amount of time has gone by that people say okay we've kind of tested everything I don't feel that the economy is as bad as the news media is making out I think things are quite things are quite good that's number one number two is I've got a job that I've kind of stuck with for a period of time and I don't see the growth possibilities but I didn't want to give it up because who knows if I could have gone in a better job now I feel I can get a better job I'm going to take that risk and the third thing is there is economic growth because the comfortability factor means that their people are feeling a little more secure economically therefore they can take the gamble which you couldn't be for because you could be stuck for not one month it could be six or eight months without a job yeah so I think that that to me is I think those are the criteria if I was at the Fed that's what I'd be looking at when those things change then I'd say uh-oh now the economy could be in trouble so as it stands right now I think this is the market reaction to me it's just a technical we were anticipating some kind of a pullback in any case and at the same time the timing is just right because we were very overboard in many sectors so if you are looking at it in terms of this is a perfect time for the market to take a breather it's got an excuse the Fed doesn't really have to do anything just now they have to see how things play out yes kind of the summertime they must have a full month right they really do I think it's July 31st is their next time another month right I think it's the end of the month yes I think so just give them time they don't have to rush into doing that that allows me to say that means the the the cap that I'm looking at in the market on the shorter term making the 27 000 area for the Dow kind of tough resistance to get through I personally would like a breather not only that there's an area that's working today and we happen to be long for my subscribers from opening call it's in the I shares the broker dealer and securities ETF okay we belong we've been long for a while and it's an area when I did my webinar a couple of weeks ago I mentioned if this area starts to improve it was at the time when I did it we were down to the 61-62 area I said if the IAA which is trading right now 64 68 up 25 cents when the general market's down quite sharply what I'd say is if the brokers if the brokers start to do well and the IAA can start to get to the 65s and then treat the 63s as support and they move higher than the 65s that would tell me that overall the brokers are starting to see the public get into the market to me that would be very a very important sign so this is nice I'm looking at it I'm saying hey I didn't expect that IAA is up to getting in the general markets down I like that that's a good sign to me definitely in terms of the market and that thing popping for sure I'm going to take this opportunity Basil you're talking about a lot your newsletter of course the opening call folks you can come on over Basil does a great job it almost feels like we just got over a weekend Basil right in terms of like I can't believe it's Friday I know Monday I agree and it's I joked this morning when I came in I said I can dig these one day work weeks because that's almost how it feels like you know you're off for two days you come back Friday and you're off for two days not the end of the world but folks Basil does a great job on the weekends even Saturdays he's got an update for subscribers as he's going through those charts Sundays he's got an update I check him out myself I encourage you to come over the front page of TFNN right there the opening call you'll be able to get access to all the archives and of course Basil whether he's got this morning his newsletter over the weekend and then you gain access to four of those archive webinars the one that he just did in June that he was just talking about less than a month ago talking about the tied bullish embarrassed and then he's got three more in there I believe they're all 90-minute webinars you got in there for your subscribers Basil so great time to do it you're down Cape Cod you're out in the beautiful west coast wherever you are on the weekend you can pull that up right on the website and check that out and I'll even get in there I'm in there one second there we go I'm going to show them a quick peek Basil of those archives and because I may watch one this weekend myself so there's the archive section folks you get all those archive webinars let alone you gain access to all of the newsletter Basil puts out so I encourage people check it out over the weekend it's a great time to make it happen Basil I always look forward to those charts the updates you're always putting out good content even on the weekend folks he doesn't stop digesting those markets for sure so back to the markets where we are right now we get the Dow creeping lower approaching 200 points to the negative right now we got S&Ps where are we come on load for me there we go we get the Dow it's not cooperating there we go Dow down 191 folks trading 26,774 NASDAQ now 70 points in the negative S&Ps negative 25 we'll be right back if you are in the cd market and looking for a secure investment the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in St. Petersburg, Florida the tax act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits which makes these lots valuable the investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000 the interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis according to bankrate.com the best rate for a four-year cd in the country as of February 20th is 3.1% a $50,000 investment at a normal four-year cd rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period that same $50,000 investment in the Tiger First mortgage program would give you $3,500 per year or $14,000 over the four years what should you prefer 6,200 or 14,000 of interest on your investment if 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folks Tommy O'Brien joined by Basil Chapman this morning we got markets trading lower down now negative 214 we got the s and p is negative by 26 Nasdaq negative by 73 that's a solid nine tenths of a percent we're in session lows as we speak on a slow friday basil i see you checking out the vix over there let's see what's going on i like that yeah so i had a question yeah well i look at the vix show i look at the vix the vix is at 14.39 it's at 1.82 up 14 percent getting a little pop on that negative pullback yeah it is it is it's quite i mean do you realize that on a percentage basis it was down at 12.04 earlier this morning and now it's almost at the highs which is at 14.39 you start playing those percentage games on the vix man watch out no seriously right because you can get that pop and i you know i didn't even realize basil that we were that low on the vix earlier this week because we were kind of hanging around the 15 level for a while even when the market was at all time highs right so i kind of it was a quick drop yeah each of the 14s and then 13 today to hit 12 yeah and uh in my one of the bullet points on my news set on my the uh the final page that i sent out this is the the traders corner uh let's see number 12 bullet point i have the tv ix and i said that it could see a big spike by next week so we got it today and uh but i didn't really want to play that uh the vix index myself because although i anticipated it should be a bad report in fact i wanted to send out something last night but i knew nobody could do anything i didn't even know if anybody would even be looking at july 4 fireworks basil no no charts that time that's right held off until the morning nobody else was right now i was doing some action too i hear you it felt like a sunday night kind of it did that it was so weird yeah but and then i look out the window and i see the fireworks and i thought hey is that is that symbolic of what's going to happen tomorrow right it might be we're early in the market hitting lows yeah yeah so but the issue here is that i have a rule of thumb and i've had this rule of thumb for a long time it used to be slightly different numbers but about 10 maybe 12 years ago i changed the numbers and the numbers would go like this for me if the volatility index is trading in the 13 or so double digits alone in other words 13 to 12 to 11 anywhere below 13 that's usually a good sign means that there's buying in the market especially if it's in the 11s yes yes what's interesting is that once it gets to the mid teens to about the 15 and a half 16 and a half area then you start to see volatility when it goes higher into the upper teens into the 18s and 19s you're pretty much going to see a triple digit down day and a strong double digit down day in the s&p not a guarantee that it'll close there but if the vix index starts to close in the high teens and then not an intraday pop it actually closes there especially two days in a row which doesn't happen very often then once you get to the high 19s and 20s you're going to anticipate very sharp setups that close not necessarily at the lows but close towards the lows of the day so i make it real simple so now we've had a bounce into the 14s still not bad but it says okay be a little careful here because it's the first indication that we've had the vix that the volatility index is being bought and on a quiet day like this you can understand that it moves quickly yes but it also means that some people are buying some insurance definitely insurance yeah and that's that's really important insurance no right on the s&p that's this yes it's up and it's up a big percentage don't ignore it and if it's closes at the high of the day or towards the high of the day anticipate that monday could be a down day yeah so we always talk about our man kevin hanks turned us on to it in terms i know it's out there but he understands this thing upside down the rule of 16 on that vix right so when the vix is sitting at 16 that basically is correlating to when you look at expected market moves and options right that's basically correlating to a 1 percent move in the s&p one out of every three days when it's at 16 so you're right i mean if that's sitting at 16 or 17 it's priced in now the s&p is trading at 2968 a 1 percent move is almost 30 points in the s&p so you're talking about 300 down points yeah right 300 down points exactly every one out of every three days um so if you're above that level that means you're looking for it you know and to put it in so if you move by one and a half times 16 so let's say you go to 24 which i know is above your high teens but that correlates to a one and a half percent move then you're talking about 450 points in the dow one out of every three days if the vix is sitting at 24 so you can see how when you get up to around just like you're saying 15 16 17 18 that's saying the market is going to be moving 1 plus one out of every three days that's almost twice a week you're seeing those types of swings so i would agree man that that is some volatility it's pricing in which is interesting that we're creeping back up to that 15 16 level as you have in the market at all time highs but even in such a great market there's some volatility priced in there's a lot of you know we're dealing with this jobs number and like you said we'll see when we come back Monday but if this holds at 14 15 16 the market's saying you know be careful we might see some volatility for sure so as i'm looking at it my impression right now is that there could be it could be boeing that suddenly has a decent update for a change because it really looks terrible but it's it's kind of oversold technically so maybe boeing or a couple of stocks that's all you need one or two stocks yeah could help the Dow just make a it doesn't have to but i'm anticipating it would be rare to make almost an all-time high without going to a leg D in the daily chart and it was hindered by boeing that's why it didn't participate right so maybe it won't do it this time but it has almost every other time and even then it doesn't matter to me because i'm looking at this and saying i don't want to put on new buys at this particular point because i think that we're getting a little choppy i'd rather wait for some decent pullback and then have a look but i must say looking at those monthly charts and doing the technical work that i did especially over the last two weeks um i like what i see looking out i still think that this is an important market i have a question i don't know if you were at a party or anything yesterday but my question whenever i i speak to people or i come on the air and it's after a holiday my question is how many people came up to you and considering wednesday was an all-time high in the s and p was did anyone mention the stock market at all fortunately not i got a refrain from from stocks uh but then just arbitrarily did somebody say oh man did i get a killing i know they didn't that's a thankfully i did not uh now that doesn't mean that that that is a market consensus right in terms of fortunately there was a pool action there was there was enough of a distraction to stay away from the market um maybe um but we'll see yeah how about yourself well no i i just nobody actually yes right i should i should say no but not true on wednesday did i play tennis on wednesday you know days i think i'll play tennis on wednesday stuff to keep track around these wednesday thursday friday holidays that's right it was tuesday and for the first time in a while two of the players actually said something about like oh what's the market doing is it up again yeah i mean that they didn't know they just had this kind of look as if what the hexganger is it up again so my impression has been that people don't want to get into some kind of a a political conversation it doesn't turn into a conversation it becomes a kind of a a conflagration yes anyone talks partly so to mention stocks is like mentioning the word trump therefore nobody talks about stocks that's my impression yes i could be wrong because they're a little bit correlated because i mean that trade war he's made it he's yeah the trade war has been hitting it so hard but he has said that i'm the stock market and i go together that's what the pressure on the fed of course with interest rates correlates it all ties in folks come on back that's and i come right back i'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trade that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets i'm steve rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s and p 500 for the last 12 six and three months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and i'll teach you the exact set of tools that i use that is transform me into one of the best in what i do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where i take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today it's amazing to think that tom o bryan started his weekly gold report 17 years ago with the first issue published april 7th 2002 when gold was trading at under $300 per ounce gold peaked at more than $1900 in 2011 and after spending many years consolidating at lower prices gold may be poised for its next big run tom o bryan publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xau hui gdx the dollar bonds south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations as of april 1st of this year the gold report currently has eight active positions with an average unrealized profit of almost 8 for each open trade new subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk for all the details and to start your gold report subscription today visit the front page of tfn.com don't let gold's next big run pass you by sign up today since 1984 basil Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy and calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call basil's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of tfn.com cancel it anytime during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to basil's newsletter the opening call today by visiting tfnn.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com folks Tommy O'Brien with Basil Chapman and Basil I just want to jump over Boeing because you make a great point on Boeing where Boeing goes the Dow can go I got up here a weekly chart going back to just 2010 I mean you can see this parabolic run that it's had and Boeing really contributed in the points to the Dow we've reached that four 446 in the beginning of March we're sitting at 352 and I was trying to find an article basil I mean the run that this has had over the last couple years and then the thing is 2000 Dow points if I remember correctly it's it's it's remarkable and it may even be more than that depending on how far you go back right because of the run that it's had I just found an article that was talking about so this article from March 5th and this is just talking about 2019 alone okay the contribution that Boeing had had leading up to almost that high around March now pretty interesting in hindsight looking at where it's gone since then the Boeing is accounted for nearly 30% of the year to date as of March 1st with that index and take a look at the contribution as of March 1st this year 812 points of the Dow Boeing it had now most of those given back of course but just like you're talking about if you get a pop in Boeing look at that contribution next biggest one Goldman Sachs at 216 I mean Boeing just dwarfing so keep that in mind anytime you're looking at the Dow folks I mean Boeing really putting a hamper on that as it's pulled back just like it really drove it through the ceiling as it traded higher always amazing and then you look at the tail end almost you know almost pointless to stare at some of these stocks considering the contribution that they put as compared with the Dow right and of course it's because of the weighting of the Dow and that's the one the only one price weighted I don't know who came up with that idea Basil it makes zero sense to me when you have stocks that are Boeing trading at 446 and then you have a company like Verizon that's you know in the 5060 and just a mammoth company themselves and they contribute one eighth of it well Basil thank you so much for filling in man I always appreciate it and we look forward to the program at noon and then you're back in the saddle at three o'clock three o'clock it's great to be with you thank you Basil have a great one stay tuned folks live programming all Friday have a great day