 Good morning everyone to To the very first session on day two, it's a rather early session particularly for those who perhaps have watched the penalty shootout between Argentina and and Holland as I have which which ended at 2 a.m. But nonetheless, it's great to be here and and all joke aside Obviously, this is one of the most pertinent most timely Sessions of this year's world policy forum It is titled the future of the EU and European security after The Ukraine war I wish we could sit here today and speak about the state of the world after the Ukraine war unfortunately We are not quite there, but I couldn't have asked for a better panel more esteemed speakers to be diving into this very timely and important Subject matter in alphabetical order to my immediate left. He's a member of the German Bundestag and the coordinator of transatlantic cooperation of the German government. Please welcome Peter Breyer Good morning Peter. Good to have you with us. Well, well, I will revert you in just a moment We have with us the former president of Mongolia ladies and gentlemen, please welcome this morning president al-Bekdors he is a very good friend of the world policy Conference been here many times He's a senator in the Polish Parliament and the chairman of the foreign and EU affairs committee in the Polish Senate. Good morning to Bogdan Klitsch Delighted to have with us the personal advisor to the high representative and vice president of the Commission of the EES great to have him with us Zaki lady and Last but certainly not least he is the founder of the Yvette Bedrin council and of course the former minister of foreign affairs of France delighted to see him here. Yvette Bedrin ladies and gentlemen Peter, let's let's dive right in here This conflict which started this war which started in February 24th has been a strain on the entire world certainly on Europe and of course its most populist most affluent member Germany particularly with a new government in place since December Which was confronted with this war right away? Germany has been somewhat criticized In Europe but also beyond for not doing enough for not stepping up to the plate for not sending the necessary Equipment that Ukraine needs give us a sense from Berlin the view from Berlin at this particular moment Thank you very much delighted to be here also with this Exceptional panel so to your question Yes, no, by the way, I'm now in the opposition because we lost So I'm not the translator decoded it anymore. It was a government position that I enjoyed to have for four years but Yeah, we are we are like ten months into this war and the German government Certainly like many others never expected anything to happen like that to have a on the ground Like conventional war in Europe. So nobody was really prepared although I have to admit there was enough sufficient intelligence Months before that nobody really should have been surprised by the time of February 24th That actually Russia invaded Ukraine There was a lot of material satellite and everything pictures that we that we had intelligence briefings on so actually It's something like well surprise surprise something we woke up to a war by the end of February this year I don't buy that but you know with the new German government just having come into office Just just like two three months after that. Of course, it took them like completely unprepared and I Think everybody needs to understand that apart from like political party issues that that you know As I said, I'm on the position now. I'm not part of that government anymore We fully have to understand that for Germany. It was a completely Confrontation with everything with their core principles because we had we had to you know To make a decision to turn 180 degrees around with regard to deliver weapons at all be it Normal weapons or heavy weaponry all the way up to battle tanks We have not yet delivered by the way which I criticize my government of not doing enough in indeed But we had not we had one of the core principles was not to deliver any kind of weapons into any Conflict or even war zone and with regard to our history in Ukraine of the in the second world where we The German Wehrmacht back then the the army killed millions of Ukrainians Yes there it was difficult for us to first they'd like to be the first one to deliver weapons So, you know in Ukraine to Ukraine, but I don't buy that, you know, we're still Lacking behind half a month have a year ago six months ago. We should have made Quick and the right political decisions like deliver delivering heavy weaponry deliver airspace defense, which we now did But there's always this narrative that I keep hearing And which actually my American friends were confronting me with earlier this week I spent three days earlier this week in Washington, DC and the administration But also my my friends on the hill on both sides of US Congress who were in session just a month after the midterm elections We're asking me questions. Do we have a German problem? They appreciate that we are delivering now, but This narrative that well if we deliver the leopard to which they desperately want and I think they need the Ukrainians Well, it takes a lot of training maintenance and all that ammunition. Yes, that that's exactly why we should have decided to deliver that Half a year ago because we know it takes a lot of time. It's not easy when we hit we hit We have that that we have enough of these of these battle tanks, which would could make a difference in that wall and Let me finish now Never we should never forget who cost all this It's it's it's Putin's Russia. That's the Kremlin What's this dictator behind hiding behind the Kremlin walls who initiated this? Completely unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and you were quite right Ali when you when you commented and your introductory remarks saying It is not only a an aggression against the Ukrainians, which would be bad enough as an aggression against all of us at least against those who believe in Universal values like rule of law democracy human rights and all these things so we are defending actually Ukrainians are defending on Ukraine and territory our core values So for me, it's absolutely no brainer to make quick and right decisions and to support Ukraine as much as we can to bring them into a strong position. There cannot be peace negotiations now So clear and very stern words from Peter by as far as the German perspective is concerned, of course, we're here today to discuss The the future of the European Union and European security after the Ukraine war But let's get a snapshot still because we're not quite there yet Bogdan Klitsch of Poland is a country obviously that has been heavily impacted by this war I know your country has taken in a large influx of Ukrainian refugees has been warning About Russia and Vladimir Putin in particular for many years is something that perhaps some of your European partners did not Take too hard. Let's get a quick snapshot from the view from Warsaw as well Before we dive into what this war actually means for the future of the EU. I Don't want to exaggerate But it was last year here during this conference that we are talking also about the Russian threat and I warned about not only militarization of the foreign policy of The Russian Federation, but also on plans of Vladimir Putin to reintegrate as biggest part of the former Soviet Union including Ukraine as an indispensable part of this of this plan by the way I Mentioned also soft annexation of Belarus that at that time was almost completed but let's say frankly that Probably probably even in November or December nobody expected such a There was a it was CIA that knew from the very beginning of November and shared this those informations with partners in in Europe about full-scale war that was planned by Vladimir Putin, but we believed rather that there will be an operation limited to the southern and eastern part of of Ukraine Not with the operational goal that is so so visible right now because the operational goal of this of this war of Vladimir Putin against Ukraine is to destroy the statehood of Ukrainian of Ukrainian state and to Exterminate its inhabitants. I underlined it because We witness not we observe not only war crimes. We observe not only crimes against humanity in in Ukraine Not only in butcha yirpin not only in the hostel in Mariupol and other places, but everywhere in In that country, but we also see the examples of genocide genocide there and it was expressed several times very clearly by either Putin himself or his his collaborators But there are two other operational goals that are important Not only for Ukraine, but also for European and Atlantic community I would say destabilization of the European Union and Paralysis of NATO they were expressed Just before the beginning of this full-scale war in Ukraine in the famous ultimatum of president put into to the West so From Polish perspective if you ask about that, this is the war that That refers not only to Ukrainian nation not only to Ukrainian statehood But also to the European Union and Atlantic community as a as a whole. That's why we are Satisfied with the with three important New factors the first one. It is the return of the United States to Europe President Biden declared that during his campaign and he did it at least since June 2021 when as we remember when he paid his first visit to Europe taking part in three summits G7 summit NATO summit, but also the European Council also European Council and There are consequences of of that. That's first secondly The important consequence of of this war was a political reintegration of of the Elias NATO was a split during president Trump's Presidency stream Very deeply there was a military unity and because of military commanders of NATO the Alliance went ahead But there was a political split and the lack of political unity So after the beginning of the war in Ukraine NATO presented itself as a as an Integrated entity and the third one it is the reaction of the European Union Frankly speaking as a chair of the foreign affairs and European Union's Committee of Polish Senate. I haven't seen before such a speed such an acceleration of an Legislative process concerning External threats Ukraine mainly that in only in two weeks From the beginning by the European Commission to the to the final decision of the European Union's Council. There is There are the main acts are adopted and Such a big amount of money that was allocated from the youth from the European peace facility To support Ukraine. It means 3.1 Billion euro for military expenses only for military expenses How much did you say 3.1? Only for military expenses from the European peace facility. I don't think you know more than 13 billion euro from for the Microeconomic aid and those that were designed for next year. I mean at least 18 billion euro epf it would be is around four points. I mentioned, you know, the European peace facility 3.1. It's more than that now But Europe I think the point figures aside the point you're making is quite clear Europe has acted uncharacteristically perhaps acted swiftly moving around the red tape that often Involves decision-making in Brussels and has acted with Decision and resolve here, but thank you so much. I will come back to you Of course as this discussion involves want to bring in about veteran the former foreign minister here for a second and ask him not Also about the view from Paris, but about some of the lessons that we as Europeans have learned since February 24th, what are some of the major? Lessons some of the major points that you would observe and and and see So, d'abord dans la table ronde on des sensés No Yeah J'attends que dans cette table ronde on des sensés réfléchir sur le futur Or c'est difficile de penser la pré-gare parce qu'il ya pas de solution à cette guerre le plus probable c'est l'enlisement et moi je crois pas du tout à court terme à des négociations encore moins une solution donc c'est pas la pré-gare c'est réfléchir à la situation avec une guerre non résolu un enlisement ça c'est le premier point Euh d'autre part la la tag de la décision aberrante de poutine nous ramène au début de la guerre froide à mon avis la première période de la guerre froide qui a duré très longtemps avant les débuts des négociations parce que l'occident à l'époque était réaliste était capable de négocier en défendant ses intérêts et d'ailleurs à la fin c'est l'occident qui a gagné et on n'est même pas dans la phase des accords so all to start etc. on est avant on est au tout début donc il faudrait étudier les années 50 à mon avis pour comprendre une situation tout à fait durable ensuite l'avenir de l'Europe c'est l'avenir de l'OTAN en fait parce que la conséquence immédiate de l'attaque de poutine c'est que l'OTAN ré-app l'alliance l'OTAN à la demande de tout le monde ré-absorbe l'ensemble du sujet européen pour le moment en matière de défense et il me semble que pour un certain temps il n'y a plus aucune base politique pour les idées entre guillemets à la française aux lésidés européennes sur une certaine autonomie de l'Europe par rapport à ça en matière de défense en revanche là où l'Europe a un boulevard de ventelles à mon avis c'est sur la question de la réduction des dépendances excessives parce qu'on l'a vu avec la pandémie on l'a vu avec le gaz russe etc on l'a vu avec les céréales et donc là il y a un boulevard en matière technologique en matière de reconstruction d'une relative autonomie européenne mais c'est pas la défense c'est pas la sécurité donc comme la période qui s'ouvre ça se passe à l'intérieur de l'OTAN de l'Alliance Atlantique sans oublier que pour les Etats-Unis le problème numéro 1 demeure la Chine même si les Européens ont du mal à intégrer cette notion il suffit de regarder ce que dit de temps en temps Biden ou Blinken ou le chef des thémageurs Millet et ce qu'ils disent n'est pas très différent de ce que dit Macron en fait et de temps en temps Scholl ça dépend vous voyez donc en tout cas il faut oublier pour tous les gens qui sont là des décennies de discours les Etats-Unis elles est assurée par l'OTAN comme à l'origine quand les Européens avaient demandé que ce soit les Etats-Unis qui les protègent en dépit des progrès en dépit des efforts en dépit des procédures etc c'est comme ça que je vois la période qui vient jusqu'au moment où les Européens même les Polonais vont se dire c'est peut-être pas prudent de penser que les Etats-Unis donc il faut quand même rebâtir quelque chose de nous-mêmes mais on n'en est pas là on n'est pas dans cette phase parce que l'urgence du moment c'est de bloquer poutine et qu'ils ne puissent pas gagner mais je reviens à ce que j'ai dit avant donc en lisement voilà donc je pense qu'il y a une grande ouverture mais pas défense je change un peu de sujets technologiques tous les domain de dépendance excessive par ailleurs sur la période je le dis souvent je pense qu'il faut réfléchir sur la politique occidentale menée depuis la fin de l'urse donc sur 30 ans et pas uniquement sur les derniers mois ni les dernières années et je pense que cette analyse n'est pas faite que tous ceux qui tentent de le faire en Occident sont considérés comme étant indulgent par rapport à Poutine ce qui n'est pas le cas personne que je connais n'est indulgent par rapport à Poutine mais un Occident qui ne serait pas capable d'évaluer des politiques menées par exemple dans les années 90 c'est un Occident qui m'inquiète il faut faire ce que les militaires appellent le retour d'expérience il y a eu plusieurs politiques depuis le début des années 90 il faut pas mélanger Poutine 1, Poutine 2, Medvedev etc je vais pas au-delà parce que tout le monde comprend mais dans les débats en Europe c'est des débats impossibles à mener il faut donc se référer pour les américains qui sont souvent très vieux qui sont des vétérans de la guerre froide qui ont combattu leur vie mais qui sont capables de faire cette analyse pour réintroduire dans le débat pour l'avenir il faut analyser ce que l'Occident a fait par rapport à la Russie, la Chine par rapport au Moyen-Orient etc moi je suis sur cette ligne tout en disant à chaque fois que c'est pas le moment c'est pas le moment quand à l'avenir je redis et je termine qu'il y a une certaine correspondance entre ce que Macron dit dans temps en temps alors je ne dis pas que je défends toutes les déclarations il y en a qu'il ferait mieux de pas faire maintenant on attend dans la suite donc Macron ou Schultz et ce que pense la Maison Blanche il me semble l'Union a été prouvel depuis février 24 as has booked and clicked once again reiterated here on stage that it has presented a unified front that it has been able to ex swiftly give us a sense of the discussions as much as you can from behind the doors of course to bring 27 nations together at a time like this and speak with one voice could not be easy I know you are working at that front very diligently together with the high representative is the unified front of substance or do we see cracks in it already no I think that the level of consensus in Europe is extraordinarily high extraordinarily high and just to give you an example just to give you an example it took two months only two months to set up the military mission to Ukraine whereas usually when we send missions to Africa it takes one year or 18 months but if you allow me if I would like to make a certain comments regarding the meaning of this conflict because if we don't concentrate and analyze the meaning of this conflict I'm afraid that we're not going to be able to think about the question we raise which is the way out okay so if you allow me I will make a few remarks first in terms of global meaning this war fundamentally marks the second death of the Soviet Union this is for me the most important provisional conclusion so in terms of meaning this war and we have to recall it is a war of aggression conducted by a permanent member of the Security Council against an independent sovereign state which Russia was supposed to guarantee the security the integrity including Crimea through the Budabest memorandum of 1994 which carried a risk for Ukraine because in exchange of this it relinquished its nuclear equipment so the cost for Ukraine was extremely high and since we are in a Arab country in the Gulf the best comparison is the invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein in 1991 now of the war why couldn't wage that war you need to read what Putin said and he wrote a very interesting piece written in July 2021 which actually other Russians could have written for example Solzhenitsyn of course with much more talent which means that the Ukrainian problem is not the simply a Putin problem it would be a deep mistake it's a Russian problem and what Putin said is extremely clear he said that Ukraine should not exist because Russia Ukraine Belarus belong to the same ensemble they are the same nation and as you know they call the Ukrainian the little Russians and they call the Belarus people the white Russians so in his mind in his mind they are part of the same nation because this is part of an imperial vision of the Russian world now the question you could raise is why did he wait 2022 a terrible war which fortunately went miserably for the Russian army the date the chronology of the war it had been launched on February 24 and the day before the invasion he made a declaration in which he said that Russia will support and organize and support militarily the two puppet governments of the east of Ukraine and I am amazed to see that nobody knows why he made this statement on the 23rd of February and I raise the question to all audience here could you tell me why this declaration had been made on the 23rd of February so I am going to give you the answer because even the ministers of foreign affairs Europeans were not aware of this coincidence and it gives you an idea of the meaning of the war the 23rd of February refers to the 8th anniversary of the fall of the pro-Russian regime in Ukraine the day Yukushenko left Ukraine Yanukovych and the day after it was the beginning of the democratic process so the question is often raised they didn't accept the independence of Ukraine but what did they wait in 2022 the explanation is quite simple as long as the political trajectory of Ukraine was compatible with the nature of the Russian regime it was possible for Russia to manage the situation as they manage the situation in Belarus ok but since 2014 the political trajectory of Ukraine became very different far from the Russian evolution and then started the danger to which Russia answered through the annexation of Crimea and launched the famous green man in the east of Ukraine so that is the reason why he launched this war so on our side did we make mistakes yes we made a lot of mistakes and let me mention those mistakes sorry to give this background but without this background we cannot have a serious discussion on Ukraine the first is and in my view and by the way I hear myself on a personal basis not reflecting the views of the HIVP so please do not quote me in a way or another so first we didn't have we never had a Ukrainian policy our Ukrainian policy was a byproduct of our Russian policy and it led to a certain number of uncertainty a certain number of mistakes hesitations including the question of NATO to which personally I'm not favourable in the case of Ukraine but we didn't give right and clear precise indication the second and big mistake is that we didn't react to the occupation of Crimea which I remind is part of Ukraine because even during the referendum of independence 54% of the population of Crimea voted for the independence of course the figure was much lower than the other regions of Ukraine but still the majority was favourable so we didn't react and the worst is that the sanction against Russia after Crimea didn't come after the occupation of Crimea but after the shutting down of the plane third I will be brief on this the terrible mistake we made was to increase our dependency on energy in Russia after Crimea and of course we can fully understand the reasoning of Mr Putin who says that those Europeans are not reacting swiftly and I think that one of he virtually made after that all the mistakes possible but he underestimated the role of the United States but just finish on this and I hope that we will be able to come on the way out the commitment of the EU is dramatically underestimated I am virtually sure that the majority here of the attendants believe that the American support is more important than the European one it's false the last figure published by the end come to the point and said that the commitments of the European Union on the economic side and the military one are superior to the commitment of the United States sorry thank you so much the background the historical background that you provided certainly key here and the last point about the Europeans actually stepping up to the plates and their aid having at least equal weight as far as Washington's contribution is concerned is taken as well noted here we have 45 minutes left in this discussion certainly I do want to go through one more round and take some questions from the audience members so it might seem peculiar at first to have the former president of Mongolia speak on a panel about the future of the European Union but for those who may not be familiar with it, you spend long time many years in Ukraine and as a former president of Mongolia have met many many times over 30 times I believe throughout Ukraine since we're talking about the future of the European Union and the implications to European security give us an outsider perspective if you're somebody who knows Ukraine very well but also knows President Vladimir Putin very well thank you very much you know this Ukrainian war has a global implication if there was not Ukrainian war I think maybe Chinese president Xi Jinping started forceful unification with Taiwan yesterday I think now Chinese leader weighing in two ways and facing two scenarios first scenario if forceful unification of Taiwan with China happens like in the 2014 Crimea he would have started that process yesterday but now this is that it might be like a different scenario 2022 scenario like a let's putting scenario and he's weighing that means that Ukrainian war has a great greater implication not only in Europe than also worldwide also in Asia also there are other connections Mongolia Ukraine there is only one country between us Ukraine is a free democratic country independent country in Europe Mongolia is a free independent democratic country in Asia and between us I told you that one country and means that we are sharing common interest also global implications means that Ukrainian war actually that front line Ukrainian war front line is much more wider is front line between the free world and authoritarian world it runs even in Africa it runs in Asia it runs everywhere if Ukraine loses I think those of the crats will be encouraged if Ukraine wins those of the crats will be discouraged now I think you even see that President Xi Jinping from the last news he is still distancing from the Putin and trying to build more connections with the western countries it means that Ukraine is fighting not only for Ukraine but it's fighting for the global of humanity that's very important and other thing also Mongolia is only democratic and fully functioning democracy between Russia and China since 1990 I think why Putin started the invasion of Ukraine is one of the reason is that if free Ukraine if prosperous Ukraine there in Europe I think it gonna be bad example I know that one day this war will end and one day we will see more liberal Russia if Russia become more liberal more free the mind that if in Russia there are some kind of democratic development I think Ukraine will have greater impact from the European side Mongolia will have much more greater impact from the eastern side from the Asian side and Ukraine will liberate Russia from the dictatorship from the European side Mongolia will liberate we will have influence on Russia from the Asian side means that even though there are countries are small but those examples are examples of freedom is greater and because of that I think this Ukrainian war is big big implications and now this war is getting having more uglier pace you know now they are really directly targeting those infrastructures and energy everything and trying to freeze Ukrainians to death and I think we need to help Ukraine we need to help Ukraine more than any other time you know we are starting the war and now I am the member of the club the Madrid and I am the newest member of the elders and we are working to raise to help Ukraine if we are talking here I think if you can think about that if you send one generator to Ukrainian city one thing to Ukrainian city that will save thousands of lives and I hope I saw that in the speakers Minister Kuleba is coming and I lived in Ukraine for many years in western Ukraine I studied there I know the spirit of the Ukrainian people they are really proud people they are never going to kneel under aggression and they are showing and I am really happy that World Policy Conference bringing this topic into this slide thank you very much and the point about we have 40 minutes left I am going to do one quick round here but with the plea of relatively short answers because I do want to get to the audience because helping Ukraine is a key right now winter is coming winter is here may not feel like it in Abu Dhabi but certainly in Berlin we have already talked about the failures on the part of some European government to diversify the sources. Germany is now in a conundrum the question I want to ask you is the support for Ukraine on the part of the German people is high if you are looking at the polls but as the living costs are rising and the immediate impact of those costs are felt by the average person do you feel that the support for this war or rather for the Ukrainian people is going to decline in Germany it's going to be a litmus test here it's a very good question and certainly one of the things that any government not only the one in Germany has to take into consideration when shaping, forming their policies and making these political decisions that are necessary I mean the support as you quite rightly described for supporting Ukraine in this war with regard to financial aid with regard to military aid is very high in Germany for politicians is always a wise thing to really listen with all senses open to those who they represent to the people and just to give you a little example of the very early weeks of that war when in Germany after the invasion on February 24th three days later German chancellor delivered a fantastic speech I think put in it with regard to the so called Titan completely changing our politics in Germany and people ask on the street would you support liver weapons especially weapons to Ukraine because of a history what I alluded to in my introductory remark because we just don't do that to liver weapons into war zones German people said well we don't like weapons we don't wear more pacific pacific sight but we think it would be the right thing to do because we want to I think the German people the society understands much better maybe only from a gut feeling maybe not only like intellectually reflected what needed to be done so yes support is high but certainly that's that's concern we not only have energy prices shooting through the roof and it's only just the beginning I have to say next winter by the end of next year will be much more expensive we have inflation rate in the double digit figures which is like around 10% in Germany and many other things and this taking together it's really a challenge for any government be it on a federal level be it on a like more regional or local level to hold the sight of together but well that's the responsibility to community explain to the constituents why it is necessary because of all the good reason that I heard from the panel it's not just about the Ukrainians which would be a cause enough to support and defend but it's you know we are fighting the Ukrainians are defending ourselves here and let's be very clear Vladimir Putin Russia will not stop at the borders of Ukraine as a sovereign state I have not heard yet the name of the Republic of Moldova which is also a country and the Baltic states which are really threatened not only since this year they are really frightened of what's happening and they have suffered a lot under Russian suppression so it's very concrete it's very clear and that's the responsibility of all those who have been elected into these top positions to lead their states and hold the societies together in their own territory but beyond the borders within the European Union and really I mean European Union there's so much talk all the time not on this panel here but European Union is this over does it have a future and all this blah blah blah why not giving the good examples of the European Union in the so-called old continent very successful and it has proved to be just in that very situation what the senior advisor to the high rep said just said and that's true it's not just like wishful thinking it's reality but of course it's also here only just the beginning we have to think about what's after that war what is our concept what is our idea the vision for the next 30-50 years of the European Union is a decreasing population and but we are also an economic tower house there's a lot of opportunities and options we just need and we're finished with that we have to look around for reinforcements of old alliances and we have to pursue paths of new alliances be it in the Indo-Pacific or be it in Latin America and elsewhere the rethinking part obviously a very important one not just in Germany but Europe in general Germany will be interesting to see whether as you pointed out Peter Bayer whether it can shed it's pacifistic attitude which obviously was in existence and in place for good reasons post-45 but these are different times now which may require a different attitude are you concerned I'm going to come to you in just a second are you concerned with the role of support on the part of European states and perhaps more importantly the European people as far as staying strong with Ukraine as long as this takes without doubt it is much better than at the beginning of the war it means that there is a growing understanding in Europe not only in some parts of Europe of the role of Ukraine and the principle that security of Europe depends on independence of Ukraine the security of European Union at least depends on independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine for many years it was a principle of our Eastern policy but now I see in all the member states of both the Alliance and the European Union such an awareness and this is a good sign but on the other hand we have still three challenges that I would like to raise maybe to discuss with the audience that happened recently first of all it is that there is a kind of division of labour between NATO and the European Union although of course the European Union once again reacted quickly reacted extraordinary for the Europe for the war Russian war in Ukraine there is a growing a growing consciousness that European Union should be mainly responsible for crisis management missions when collective security is and will be in the hands of NATO when President Macron presents such a stance this is symptomatic for Europe when in the in the new strategic concept although in the new strategic concept of the Alliance the crisis management was still put in an important place after the fatigue of out of area missions mainly in Afghanistan I cannot imagine you know that there would be an engagement of NATO in crisis management type missions out of area in future when in the strategic compass we have a clear definition that European Union should be ready to conduct all types of Petersburg missions this is a clear definition of the level of ambition of the European Union of course one can discuss the current stage of capability developments if they are able to achieve all those goals including enforcement missions including stabilization missions at least at the scale of Aaltaa mission in in Bosnia and Herzegovina but this division of labour for crisis management in the hands of the European Union and the collective security in the hands of NATO is more and more visible it's certainly the division of labour as Finland and Sweden are getting ready to join the Alliance expanding the sphere of influence of Europe thank you Bogdan Klitsch for pointing that out it's going to be quite interesting to see how that plays out are you concerned about war fatigue and we're talking about this war which has been raging since February 24th which has claimed so many lives but is now feeling more and more real to the European citizens because of the economic ramifications that this war is having I think on an ideological emotional level everybody in Europe at least predominantly would exert their support but do you sense certain war fatigue in France and beyond yes it's up to you I don't think so I agree with Zaki Laidi who mentioned earlier the enormous efforts of the Europeans unlike what is said in general and we're supposed to talk about it not the immediate conjunction in theory so I don't have any concerns I think the Europeans will resist and I think that Poutine can't win I think the Americans will not let the Ukrainians attack the Crimea I can be wrong that's what I believe in in reading and as I said earlier beyond the immediate concerns too conjunctural the future is in time in time so it will depend on the relationship within the time therefore of the American position therefore of the Biden position in hierarchy number one the internal policy number two, China number three, the European questions so they won't let Poutine but they won't let themselves be dragged by the Europeans in a direct confrontation meanwhile I don't think the Europeans will resist even the Ukrainians will resist courageously the current situation so for me there are more questions about the future how we're not really going to manage the future and what will be the pre-visible dissensions already visible within the alliance and the other time but I don't think public opinions opinions are on the same line from the beginning we can't let Poutine win but we don't want war with Russia so it may be a bit confusing but it's the position of all opinions and I don't think it will change so I'm not especially worried about the resistance of the Europeans so to give you the biggest achievement was to cut our dependency from Russia on oil and gas because oil and gas have hijacked our Russian policy something which had been denied by a certain number of member states but I have to say that those member states and you know the one I'm referring to has dramatically changed its position and it's a huge achievement which needs to be to be noticed now there are obviously many issues in the future and the role and the strategic responsibility of Europe is going to be a key question for the future of our security indeed NATO is absolutely crucial and Mr. Putin made it larger but still NATO is not going to be the solve the problems of the security of Europe meaning that Europeans need to take more responsibility not against NATO but even within NATO but we need to have a strong European pillar without NATO capable of dealing with what the French military said to be prepared to a war of high intensity in Europe and this war is going to have sea change on the perception and the strategic perception of our security but indeed we need to take Europe taking more responsibility I think it's something that Washington also is very receptive to as far as it's constantly in previous years for Europeans to step up to the plate is concerned that is certainly music to Washington's ears considering the time that we have and I would ask the panelists to take notes because I'm going to combine the questions we're not going one by one but we're going to combine them by I believe Steve why don't you go first I'm going to come to all of you and we're going to collect the questions and I'm going to throw it back for one last Q&A session with your audience Steve go ahead Ali thank you and thank you to the panel which has been very good by the way I do want to throw it more to the future the war will eventually end it will end in negotiations but there is already disagreement in the alliance about how we treat Russia afterward do we have European security against Russia do we have European security with Russia do we have European security with America though worried about China the big question is what happens to Russia after this war which is a much more interesting question frankly will it be a new time of troubles will it disintegrate what will that do but mostly I just want to get people to talk about how you look at Russia post-conflict in relationship to European security what kind of security guarantees can you provide Ukraine if as Zaki Lady says outside NATO I don't think they exist myself but perhaps I'm wrong thank you thank you Steve a question we would be happy to incorporate what does security with Russia look like afterwards what does Russia look like the microphone thing is being passed we're moving to both sides yes go ahead please thank you for this fascinating panel two quick questions the first was Zaki Lady's remark on the European rearmament is it really credible beyond the emotion we have today because we can see that as much as there is no future in our relationship to Russia without a military force in Europe very powerful there are many emotions in terms of the budget that we have refused until now to dedicate to these subjects and second very quick question integration of Ukraine in the European Union this subject has not been mentioned we have admitted we all know what is the reality of the economy and the Ukrainian institutions we are involved in a political progress which we can see that it is absolutely incontournable but is it realizable but this integration is part of the long-term vision of our relationship with the Eastern Europe thank you so much the microphone is coming all the way I'm going to get everyone in I promise go ahead 2 quick comments and a question there is unanimity in Europe in supporting Ukraine and this will be helped by the good qualification of events I would react to the fact that events have been codified by one of the members of the panel as genocide for example is there war crime on the scene last yes obviously and this has to be condemned is there humanitarian crime this can be discussed is there a genocide I do not believe that qualifying events this way helps supporting European in the situation this is the first point the second comment when you alluded to Solzhenitsyn Solzhenitsyn never denied the existence of Ukraine as an independent state he just said that probably this would be a difficult period that there might be war and that he would oppose his sons participating in the war that is what he precisely wrote if I may say is particularly from a French point of view but it goes beyond as the panel emphasized the war has made the penny about NATO drop for the French for example NATO was very often denied French politicians talking about defence and defence in Europe very seldom spoke about NATO just as if France did not belong to NATO actually and now the penny has dropped and I believe this is a good thing but as to Europe and Oberhedrin emphasized that the panel is supposed to be about the future I would ask the panel how the value of the present situation for example when you've got a Franco-German cooperation on SCAF and just about the same time an important announcement made on this you've got the Italian British Japanese cooperation on a competitor to SCAF for example so Europe seems to be united presently but if we look to the future the division in Europe on industrial issues and others regarding security seem to be just as strong as ever thank you so much moving the mic along yes please go ahead if you may I'm going to speak in French I would like to ask a question Oberhedrin from this interesting debate I believe in this war certainly the Russian who has attacked Ukraine is going to go out even if it is European culture there will be a rupture of trust in Europe and Russia and Russia is going to deploy to Asia India and China and all the others so for me is it not an opportunity of course for Europe on the one hand to integrate to strengthen to have a strategic common policy but on the other hand to be interested in its other geography that is to say the South to the need for Europe to reconcile with the Arab world and with Africa it is with this world that it will be able to manage maybe its transition all these transitions the energy transitions among others outside of the fact that it has the problem of development and the Mediterranean to be resolved thank you thank you so much I think the young gentleman right next to you had a question we'll get him the microphone can I see a show of hands whom am I missing here right here in the first row and then the young gentleman why don't you go ahead thank you very much the speakers are talking about European defence and independence indeed and it's quite disheartening actually to see that Germany for instance is pouring billions of dollars into American fighter jets although other opportunities are available in Europe not just mentioning the Rafale but in fact is it just because we listen too much to the goal that as French people we dream of a European independence or does it translate into English as well that's probably a question for the foreign speakers here in the panel thank you very much thank you so much go ahead Daniel Khatib I have mostly a comment more than a question and I want to make an analogy between Germany and Russia following First World War and Germany when Germany was humiliated and was plunging in hyperinflation this led to the rise of a belligerent figure like Hitler where after Second World War when Germany was treated with respect and we had the Marshall Plan a peaceful prosperous Germany so I mean this is a great panel but I don't see like the Russian perspective I speak a lot with Russians and they have a lot of grievances they were promised if you talk to a Russian he will tell you Gorbachev was promised the moon you know that if he will gonna dissolve the Soviet Union we're gonna have prosperity and but this resulted in sweet lies so all what I'm saying I hope that Ukraine will win but I also I hope Russia after that I go back to Steven will be treated with respect with humility just in order not to have Putin 2.0 because a defeat on Russia doesn't mean it's gonna become more peaceful thank you Thank you so much I believe unless I have overlooked anything I believe everyone here everybody will get their share being mindful of the time of course Peter why don't you kick it off and then we'll get everyone in here for the one last round thanks for that really great set of questions and comments so I'm trying to pick some of them of course those pertaining everybody pertaining to that field the first question the last one we're actually referring to how to deal with Russia after the war once it's over so what's the future in our relation with that huge country with these many many millions of Russians look I mean Russia is a proud nation with a lot of history tradition and we had good relationships before but matter of fact is the change through trade concept approach that we tried with the hand reached out didn't work out Putin's Russia betrayed the world and they were like free riding on that yes there were stupid mistakes and that had been alluded to earlier that we did especially in Germany to increase our dependency especially when it comes to Russian oil and gas so I mean obviously there needs to be a future relationship with Russia the country and its people especially to have something I hate to say I had to use that term but for lack of a better one we need something like an off ramp and I'm not talking to Vladimir Putin but for the nation for the country for the people of Russia which I have respect for but you know it's way too early and now I try to connect that with the first question with the last one this is absolutely not the time to talk about respect respectful treatment of Russia they are the aggressors and Russia is you know in the beginning we talked about in the beginning of the war we talked about well it's Putin's war but as has been said on the panel earlier it's not only Putin's war he gets a lot of support it's Russia against Ukraine and the rest of the world basically so I think we should not give I totally disagree to give Russia any representative of Russia a platform on this conference or any other at this point in time to you know lobby for themselves they have to first stop that war and then we could talk about respectful treatment about an off ramp but all else stop that war and then it's only the time to do that and I would there was a question with regard to rearmament of Europe if that would be realistic taking into account the defense investment pledge which means that by the time of 2024 NATO member states should increase their budget defense budget to 2% at least of GDP you know being from Germany German parliamentarian there was a lot of things that we did not do in the past especially during the term of President Donald Trump we were heavily criticized by not doing enough and on the merits it was right just the style was not really good we increased our defense budget over those past several years tremendously really by at least 50% and we are stepping up to that and we are fully committed to reach that 2% goal and keep that German Chancellor who is not from my party but during his speech that I mentioned earlier on the 27th of February said very clearly from now on each and every year Germany will spend 2% of its GDP just for defense for the defense budget so from my perspective and from a German perspective let there be no doubt that we will live up to our commitments that we met not only as a security interest but also as a commitment to our partners with NATO as a reliable partner and it's very clear from your words that obviously this goes beyond a party being in power or in opposition this is a unified German position stands and stern and frank words about Russia there Bogdan everybody is going to chime in here before we wrap up Bogdan Klitsch go ahead Steve frankly speaking there was a great wisdom after the Second World War that was focused in one sentence beginning with keeping Americans in I would say that because we witness right now the first full-scale war in Europe after 1949 we should refer to this wording and my very short answer for your question would be to keep Americans in Russians down and make the European Union more stronger let's think in those categories secondly when you mentioned sadly about the necessity of reinforcement of the European pillar within NATO I keep in mind the famous concept of European security and defence identity, ESDI that according to my understanding of the history is completely outdated because after ESDI was put aside there was a great beginning of European security and defence policy once again began in 1998 after the meeting of Tony Blair and Jacques Chihac and now we have at our disposal within the European Union common security and defence policy with plenty of instruments several tools that can be used in a variety of situations in a variety of options the problem is still with with funding those tools and with from time to time the lack of political will to use them if we use everything that was included into the Lisbon Treaty our achievements after 2017 European Defence Fund Mechanism Cart other tools we will be able to be much more effective by the European Union than concentrating on reinforcement of the European pillar within NATO I don't want to undermine the necessity of better involvement of European partners within NATO I am in favour of reinforcement of CSDP within the European Union and better collaboration between NATO and the European Union in the sense of both declarations from 2016 and from 2018 that created a new framework for the cooperation between those two organizations as for the genocide we discuss that in Europe if what we witness in Ukraine is or is not genocide I am I am convinced that theoretically and practically in several places in Ukraine we observe genocide and when you go to Borodianka for example and in the small city you see five buildings three of them were hit because they were of how to say in English baton pieces and those pieces were easier to destroy and those who were built of bricks were not destroyed were not hit because of this first category of buildings when hit it were easier to murder people inside is it a genocide or not is it only a war crime or not it is a complex extermination of the nation it is an ideology of the extermination of the nation theoretically and practically and let's not forget about that but even when we don't if there are controversies concerning that there is one crime that is not assessed and that should be tried by the special tribunal and this is the crime of aggression that's why together with my colleagues from various parliaments I mean the chiefs of Foreign Affairs and European Union committees we call on European governments to create the special tribunal to assess the crime of aggression by Vladimir Putin and his inner circle thank you thank you so much some of the questions were addressed to you directly and president I'm going to come to you of course as well as I will to Zaki being mindful of the time go ahead I will react very quickly to the first and the last question concerning the first question I think it was Steve against or with Russia the defense spirit was awakened in Europe so the answer is obviously against Russia so the defense of Europe is awakened in the context of NATO by Putin against Russia there will be a moment I don't know when in a certain time we will think about the security with Russia as a neighbor and I hope that at that moment the West will raise its maniacism which is fundamental in the West to have the same audacity the same intelligence the same strategic efficacy than the great American leaders of the Cold War before the triumphalism but it's not for now after tomorrow I don't know when so first against then after I don't say what I want I say what I analyze in my opinion in terms of European pillars since Zaki used the expression it's back it's not an opportunity now it's a question that will be asked after when the Europeans will ask questions this is the first question but you have to work there are elements, procedures there are tools but I speak mentally we can see what the European opinion is and this round table shows it on the question of opportunity for Europe to be interested in the South by taking the old language I really want it and I don't feel it at all Europeans are not at all in this phase they are completely re-oxidentalized to the old because of the decisions made by Poutine but it's like that they don't have the capacity they can't even imagine it and since they have become human again following the aggression of Poutine they are not able to imagine compared to 40 countries who have not condemned Russia while the aggression is obvious 40 countries representing 60% of humanity they are not able to imagine this policy corresponding to this question in relation to the new non-aligned I think it would be necessary but they won't react like that they will try to harass the non-aligned close to moral, legal, political but I don't think that today Europe within which there will be an influence between Poland, Ukraine, France, Germany etc I don't think they are able to think about this policy and in my opinion it will be a new strategic occasion I regret having to say that but it's like that I feel things in huge efforts of many Europeans I regret having to say that I think that there is a lot of pressure against this war Poutine and Russian people are two different things also with the start of this war Poutine brought big loss in Russia economic loss, military loss most importantly confidence loss in Russia and that's a very bad thing also one thing Poutine are now more focused there are more forceful mobilization for ethnic minorities in Russia disproportionate ethnic minorities are mobilized to the war in Russia most of them originally origin from the Mongol dissidents, you know Buryats, Kalmyk and others mobilized disproportionately to this war Poutine is killing Ukrainians in Ukraine but in Russia Poutine is killing ethnic minorities in Russia Poutine is using ethnic minorities like a cannon fodder we have to pay to this attention this is very important issue also with the start of mobilization we opened our border to the ethnic minorities to the people from Russia to the border with Russia we received thousands of people from Russia and I think if there is one less man with gun against Ukraine I think that's also a great contribution for the peace in Russia and after this war there will be kind of the development and big change going to be in Russia and I think that's still happening in a mindset of people not only outside of Russia also inside of Russia to be part of the Russia or how to deal with these consequences of war and that is indeed a very important question Steve alerted to it of course not only what the future of the European Union will look like but what the future of Russia will look like once this war is over on the last point I think the European Union is the greatest project which we have our humanity I think after war this is the test for the European Union I think after this war the European Union will be more united more stronger and also other parts of the world should follow the suit for example in Asia we have 48 United Nations members we have not such establishment like in Europe for example now myself and other people are contemplating idea to put kind of the Council of Asia idea how about how to find kind of consolidation in Asia in Europe there are almost 50 years that consolidation and it will be more stronger so Europe will be more stronger is an outsider perspective something like lady that I'm sure you would attest to take it away I've made my first presentation in English for the sake of Francophonie I will give my answers in French to his imperial identity to the profit of a more national identity I invite you if you haven't done it to read a remarkable article written more than 20 years ago by a Russian artisan Alexander Liebed in which he clearly put the terms of the future of Russia between a national identity ended by the borders of the Russian Federation and an imperial identity as long as Russia as long as Russia won't do this work of rupture it will have problems and we will have problems with it so we will say to myself but it's very difficult but yes it's very difficult but yes it's very difficult I discuss with him and he tells me for Spain the loss of Cuba was a terrible tragedy but yes the loss of Algeria was also a tragedy for France but Spain as France without its exit by renouncing to their imperial project it will be necessary that one day Russia will face what they failed to do probably probably because of the nature of its regime and anyway there is no such thing as Ukraine there is what happens in Central Asia where we can see very well the will to leave the orbit maybe to enter the orbit of China I don't know if they will win or change it's the dynamic so it's the passage of an imperial identity national for what is the European defense listen I come back to Washington where we have a dialogue in the European Union and the United States on China at the highest level American and very clearly very clearly the Americans tell us you have to concentrate military much more important that you are much more autonomous because it's true that for us we are going and we have other priorities so it's not against NATO it's not against the United States with which fundamentally we have the same values whatever we say but Europe whether we want it or not will have to be a guarantor of its security with the support of the United States and fortunately since today and the French mayor said that if there was today a war of high intensity the French army which is the most powerful in Europe would not last more than 10 days so the American support is absolutely essential but when I talk about autonomy or strategic responsibility I have in mind an idea which means that we have to learn to think by ourselves our own future our own security not against the Americans not against the United States but think by ourselves because no one will think by ourselves in our place and if we do it, it's not for the good third point we have to wrap up unfortunately 60 seconds so we can wrap up the session on the south and here I would not agree with what Hubert just said in this sense and I can give you examples of what we have experienced since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine with Africa where there was a great work of Russian disinformation but unimaginable intended to make Europe responsible for the food crisis what have we done the European representative he sent a letter to the 52 African ministers of foreign affairs in which he explained that the cereals were absolutely not covered by sanctions and he said if you have problems especially of over-compliance address us we have opened a line and we have fixed a certain number of problems but we cannot accept the idea that a minister I would not be African says to Borel these are the sanctions responsible for the crisis and when he was told who is responsible he said it to us Thank you so much Ladies and gentlemen, the future of Europe and European security after Ukraine I think I speak for all when I say this is a subject matter we could sit here until 8pm and probably still not have covered all aspects but I think you would agree that this panel in a very splendid manner managed to give us a very content rich debate which I'm sure will also be used for the discussion with Foreign Minister Kuleba later on throughout the day and the 8am session on any given day song is never an easy task so just for that please join me in thanking this wonderful panel Thank you so much