 Okay, we're getting things started now. It's gone 12.15. Welcome to this TMZ market's weekly charting analysis webinar with myself Jasper Lawler. Just going to skim through the, or look in detail, I should say, the risk warnings on the screen at the moment. Being a busy day in markets already, some big moves in the oil price, also a lot of movement around the British Pound building on the gains from last week. So I'll probably discuss those two things up front, but I should say anything that you want to talk about here, discuss anything you might have in mind. So we've got the short-term charts on here. You can see that this is the Brent crude price down in the left-hand corner here, and we've had a big pickup today. Going up $2 and then dropping a dollar again. If you hadn't been following, basically we've got the G20 summit going on. A lot of hot air as usual from politicians, but one thing of note was that Saudi Arabia and Russia were talking about a big agreement. The oil price shot up on expectation. But as is usually the case, particularly in the oil market, is that it was a bit of a disappointment. Nothing was really announced. Oil has held on to its gains though, still up 3% on the day for Brent and WTI, as you can see on the screen down here. So it's been a good rally. It's just pulled back a bit. We're into sort of, as I said, it was up to down one, so we're in the 50% retracement range. So you think this rally's still got legs now as a possible level. But really this is all about speculation as to whether OPEC do anything at their unscheduled, I should say unscheduled there, sort of the non-standard meeting that they held, holding this month ahead of their official meeting, which I believe is they've recently said was in October, formerly thought it was November. So you know that being the case, you know the timing is a bit tight in terms of this meeting and their next official meeting, whether it's October or November, still pretty close. So to my mind, good chance that nothing really gets agreed. What we're looking for of course is for them, these big oil producers to freeze output. Russia and all the OPEC nations, but obviously Iran's holding out because they're still building up their production after sanctions were put on them by the US and the rest of the world for a number of years. So if we have a look at the, I'll dive straight into the oil price. This is my daily chart. Got a few levels on here, but I think the main crux of it is that we're basically in a range now. Looking at the cash price, it's pretty much 41 to 51. But you can obviously kind of rough estimate that to more like 40 to 50. That's kind of the range we're in now. As soon as we've got to 50, that's a lot of people saying was actually maybe not justifiable that it's got the legs to push much beyond 50, maybe we're in a 40 to 50 range now. And that has actually panned out pretty well. We had a big old drop, but that was just matched by a big old rise again. We're not really in a long-term trending environment as we were from this period beginning in January. We're now making fresh lows, but then highs again. Just kind of thinking about the dynamic of this trend, pulling up to the weekly chart here. I know most of us don't trade on a sort of weekly chart basis, but just looking at this, we're making higher lows. This is a fairly obvious trend, particularly with the benefit of hindsight always. But there's a low there. We take it out. We obviously make a decent new low. We take out this swing low down here as well. So then what you're kind of looking for is for some sustainability of that down leg. So the level I had on my chart was this sort of 46-60. Equally, you could have used these levels down here more in the sort of 45-60 area for an area where the price would roll over again to continue the downtrend. But it didn't do that. It basically paused at the level I had on the chart, and then just the following rammed right back up to this swing point up here, which you can see this week, the candle was two lows on either side. You could call it kind of into a swing high, and the market's rolled off from there. It's basically pulled back. It's dropped down again below this kind of swing level. To my mind, we're getting a good rally in the price at the moment, but we're kind of directionless, and we're right in the middle of the trading range here. I would not be bet in the lodge that this kind of 50% pullback continues into a new high. We're not really in an environment of buying the midpoint of the rally. We're in a range so that they're kind of safer, I mean, not safer, but the more reliable trading in this environment is buying the bottom of this 40 to 50 range, selling the top of the 40 to 50 range. Once we get a breakout in a weekly close above 51, really, that's a different game. Then we're into kind of pushing into new highs again. That's an uptrend. You can start to kind of buy more aggressively on the retracement, but to my mind, we're still kind of range bound on this oil price. That would sort of suggest that nothing's going to happen this month in the meeting in Algiers with these oil producers, and I think that makes sense. So a little bit on the order, and then the other thing in terms of just what's been going on today is for those of you really worried about the result of Brexit, a little less need to be so worried, I would say, based on the last few days' data. Basically, the reason, I don't know if you read the morning call from the insights here. Obviously, slightly biased, but I believe these are useful just to set you up for the day. I actually happened to write this one this morning and just sort of mentioned that the basis for the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates, which is obviously, the betting that that was going to happen is what drove sterling down so much, drove cable down so much, and euro sterling up so much, this move after Brexit was basically the Bank of England were going to do something. They acted really quickly after the Brexit result. Basically, on the back of the big, sharp drop in services and manufacturing PMIs in July, they have both rebounded hugely back to levels way pre-Brexit to sort of highest levels since going back to March this year. So, stronger than they were in all this opposed uncertainty leading into the vote, well into an expansion again. So, the economic data is not really supporting the Brexit's going to cause us a big problems narrative. And if you've been following, Michael and I have been saying, we've been saying that this is, of course, the economy could roll into a recession. Who knows what happens down the line. But there's just this supposed uncertainty. If you realistically, if you're a business, are you going to stop hiring someone just because of a political vote? You know, if you're consuming your washing machine broken down, are you not going to buy that just because of a political vote about Europe? I don't think so. And so, the data is bearing it out now. So, that is all quite supportive of sterling. And you can see that this is the daily candlestick chart of the British pound, kind of sorry, I'm moving it around a bit too much here. This is the range that we've been in. These were the lows down at 128. We've got as high as 135 in that kind of initial rebound. And then we've been we've been stuck in that 129 to 135 Tiberia since. But to my mind, this move above the 50 day moving average, the slight peep above that high from August suggests that we're making our way towards a breakout from the range to the upside. That obviously depends largely on what the Bank of England decide to do. But this data would suggest they're not going to do much more in terms of easing policy. We do have some hard data from the UK this week. So, we've got UK industrial production and the trade balance. But probably more important, we do have Mark Carney along with a few other UK central bankers talking on Wednesday in front of the Treasury Select Committee, the politicians, and might have a bit of explaining to do. Why have they cut interest rates when the economy just seems to be doing absolutely fine? To my mind, they acted too hastily and a lot of politicians are going to be accusing them of the same. They do have a pretty solid defense though. They're just going to say, well, you know, maybe the cut in interest rates help the confidence and that's why the economy's recovered is partly because of what we've done. Pretty spurious, I would say. There was some day to the other day that mortgage rates basically haven't been affected by this last interest rate cut. So, how that's exactly benefiting people is unknown to me. Nonetheless, that would probably be what we hear on Wednesday and that could affect whether we get a daily or weekly close above this previous swing point. That's the first important level, I would say, is the 3370 and these were a couple of kind of real spike highs. I'm just short of 135 but it's 135 that we need to get above ready to confirm that we're out of this trading range and going to make bigger headway into that Brexit drop. So, jumping around a bit, I know in terms of qualities, currencies and things, let me get back to the indices. A general state of play is how we go through things. I'll start with the U.S. I've got someone requesting the NASDAQ and the US30, so I'll start with the US30, I'll follow that a lot. NASDAQ, I don't update as much but obviously these things are all fairly correlated. This, I actually did a weekly update, sorry, a chart forum update today, this one up in the corner based on the weekly chart, you can see here, one week, just because I think it's kind of notable that this was the previous record high from May last year and we've broken above it obviously. We've been making a series of record highs in US markets this year but really looking at this chart, it's just sideways isn't it? We've broken above it, we've made this high and we've really not done much beyond the kind of second week after breaking higher, we've just kind of chopped along there and the bottom of the range has basically been that old record high. So, to my mind, always good to have a top-down view, I think if we get a weekly close below 18, what am I calling that, 18 370 I believe, that's making the picture look a lot shakier for US stock markets. Maybe not falling off a cliff but maybe just meaning a retest of 18 thousand and then you know once we get to that level then obviously questions get re-asked, we need to see a close below there to see further downside. The end of the day central banks are pretty supportive of markets, they're always putting a bit of a floor under but it's a matter of whether some other issue like European banks, whatever the case is, can create enough fear in the markets to at least see a sort of temporary bigger drop. Scaling down things a little bit here, you can see the range a bit better on the daily chart, so this support here, this swing low on the daily chart has worked pretty well and we're getting a bit of it to kind of short-term, double bottom in around the 18, 3, 40-ish, a fake out there on Thursday and then obviously they're kind of the strong response to the jobs numbers on Friday and today we're obviously going nowhere because US markets are closed for Labor Day. So to my mind, the next point is whether we can get a, this is really to me the main swing high that's next in line is this 18, 5, 70, it's still in the middle of this range that we've been talking about but that would be the next step to suggest that we can actually push up again through these record peaks. Looking at momentum, we're sort of, you know, we're kind of giving up the ghost a little bit here, you know, if we can get to an oversold level and the markets still above the highs, you know, that's actually a positive reversal on RSI and that's a bullish sign price holding up despite lower momentum. But it does sort of look like we're getting a bit exhausted here in US markets, unable to push higher and it's unclear what the next catalyst to be to really justify the next big rally. So obviously a similar picture on the NASDAQ and obviously what's notable here is I've had that pink line in my chart, God knows how long, that's basically the old record high on the cash index for 816, you know, our charts don't even go back to 19, what was it, 1999 when the NASDAQ topped in the dot-com crash. Worth noting that long-term trend line break out here suggesting there is a bit more to this than just retesting the high, but understandably the record high from the dot-com boom, a serious psychological level. Well done if any of you, long than NASDAQ in 1999 and held on until now, you now break even. But obviously we're struggling at this top and it's kind of corresponds with that sideways range that we saw in the US 30, we're seeing a similar thing here. To my mind the kind of level of note is just a swing high from August 1st, you can see a series of false breakdowns there. So if we actually get a close below that, then we're running into this previous zone of support that you can basically see from these kind of recent swing highs from last year. And I think probably the default assumption would be that 4,700, probably the lower bound of that range would act as some sort of support. Should that give way, then obviously looking at the previous swing high down at 4, which happens again to be the around number again, 4,600. These markets are all trending higher in my mind, but just looking a bit exhausted. So maybe some opportunity, don't get too caught up in the fear of a sell-off, because they could be an opportunity to get him. So looking back to UK markets now, we're kind of in a state of play at the moment where the FTSE 100 had a big rebound off the Brexit low thanks in part to the drop in cable, the drop in the British pound which made all these multinational earnings, foreign earnings, worth more when they repatriated them back into British pounds. So there's obviously less of that effect when the pound recovers. So actually, we'll almost get into a stage where good economic data for the UK is bad for the FTSE 100, because the pound has swung around so much. So you note today that the FTSE 250 is higher, that's all a bit domestically focused, the FTSE 100 is lower, only marginally. And this was a good breakout on Friday, out of this kind of sluggish down range that we'd had for the previous couple of weeks. And to my mind, that is a sign that we're going to be able to push above that August 15 high. Obviously that's the next plane resistance level, and then you can see from the higher time frame, I would put the resistance in at this kind of, this was a little interim swing high in here, and you can see it's basically that range, so isn't it? I would say it starts around 770 and goes up to those record peaks, which on our charts about 7125. I think there's a good chance, because again looking at this, obviously it's solid there, solid breakout post-Brexit, and then we've been trending higher, higher low, and then another higher low looks like it's being formed here after having bounced off. It's hard to see, but this candle is a kind of swing high, because it's, we've got a lower candle on that side, and obviously a series of lower candles on that side. So this, this was kind of the level that we got that strong rebound off last week on the jobs day, and again you can see it a bit more clearly. That was that weekly swing, and then we had a few false breaks above it, drop below, and then retest. So resistance becomes support as what we're getting. Any other markets that you want me to cover, please do let me know. I'm going to move on to the Germany 13 next. We do have a bit of European data this week, but that's all going to be pretty well over shadowed by the European Central Bank on Thursday. No one's really expecting them to do anything in terms of cutting interest rates, or easing one at policy in any way, because well basically there's not really the kind of data to justify it. Obviously the UK data is recovered. We saw a bit of a drop in the German services PMI today, but I would be, you know, the other countries actually saw an increase. So it would be a struggle for the ECB to warrant doing anything based on the European economic data, which is mostly held up. Even immediately afterwards all the kind of business confidence ZEW type surveys, they were okay. So that said, probably no interest rate cut. The time the data comes out as always with the ECB is 1245 London time on Thursday, but then the important thing will be the 130 PM on Thursday will be the press conference. And what we could see is them revise down their economic projections, sort of going along with the Bank of England narrative that Brexit is really going to harm the European economy, or at least do some sort of negative damage to it. And so that could mean some weakness in the euro, and could mean a bit of positivity for for German markets like the Germany 30, other European markets that benefit from a weaker euro. So I'm wondering what that random pink line is. It's quite a well-defined trend line here. It doesn't work from the previous peak. It kind of does work if that's like an aberration. But you can see it works pretty well through these peaks down here. We paused at it, we pulled back right to it now. So the fact that we came up to it, pulled back, and now we're up to it again. Is the sort of action that would suggest a break higher? And obviously that matches you know, looking at the UK 100, that pulled back to the previous weekly swing high and then a move higher. It's a similar sort of action. So they're all kind of working well together the indices suggesting the continuation of the high. But obviously you need that you need that break above the break above and close above the high to confirm you're in the new trend. But obviously, you know, you're a little bit behind the game if you've waited that long for that to happen. I would put the kind of interim support levels that these two swing highs here would have got a little false break of there and eventually broke higher on Friday. I would say that short-term resistance is next support. But if that gives way then we probably are looking back to that daily swing low back in the sort of, I've said 10, 490 but really obviously 10, 500 is the round number. How are we doing at the time? Yeah, we're okay. So we've got about seven minutes left. So we've had to look at cable. Well, since we're just talking about the the ECB, I'll have a quick look at the euro. I know someone's asked about Dolly Yen. I'll certainly look at that next. Euro greater scheme of things is very much in a range. We need a break above basically 115, a close above 115 ish to to show that we're out of this sideways market equally to the downside which doesn't look as likely at the moment. We'll be a close below 105. So we had an inside week only just about pushed a little bit to the downside and we're kind of holding on to that that support at the moment will be basically in the middle of a kind of smaller range. So the bigger range is 105 to 115. We're in a kind of smaller range of basically 109 to sort of 114 at the moment. And so we see that's 200 day moving average kind of basically flat drifting through the middle of the trading range. And to my mind the action recently is that of support giving way and a previous support acting as resistance. So we've got the 200 day moving average below us but to my mind the support held went back to previous support sold off. To my mind the next logical action would be a move down to the previous swing low down here at the sort of 104 45. But again it's not a great trending environment so not as easy for trade. And it's been like that for a while in the Euro dollar. Dolly Yen definitely getting interesting. I mean Michael and I were highlighting the chance of a double bottom at 100 pretty much since we got there and it's starting to pan out. One of the extra reasons to believe that we might be seeing a bottom here in the Dolly Yen is we had a break above this pretty nicely well-defined downsloping trend line which has been working to some extent in coordination with the 50 day moving average. So we had some chat from the Bank of Japan's Coroda overnight. What he was saying is that everything's still on the table in terms of the Bank of Japan easing monetary policy so they could cut rates further they could do more QE they could buy different kinds of assets. So he's saying we've still got plenty more we can do. Basically what you can interpret from this action today is the market doesn't really buy it because dollars dropping the Yen strengthening. His comments would suggest if they're going to do more policy easing that the Yen should weaken. There's been a bit of a belief in that which has pushed the market higher but you know I would say probably the reason we're seeing a bottom carved out here in Dolly Yen is that that the Bank of Japan are still easing policy they're probably not going to ease much more but obviously what we're kind of gradually edging our way towards is a federal reserve rate hike. So it's the dollar strength playing out here more than the more than the Yen weakness. But nonetheless we've had a breakout we're testing this trend line here so you know we're sitting right on this broken trend line at the moment you know here down to this swing low at the sort of 102 80s is sort of interim support in the belief this trend line break held holds. If we get a false break of this trend line and get a deeper pull back then this sort of 101 75 which is this little swing low here to the 102 round number you know that kind of fits in about with a a 50 percent retracement I believe. Yeah you can see that's based in almost exactly a 50 percent retracement of this up move would be at 102 and then you've got that swing low at 101 75 just below it if we get there so you know looking at this kind of areas potential support for the move above the trend line to continue if not you know this is a little combination of support areas down here. And just we've already covered all so I think I'll just round things off here with with with gold. That's it well I'll leave my short term chart alone let's go to my so so we highlighted this last week we got again you know some sort of same old style of analysis we're looking at these long term swing highs so you know swing high low high low and then I mentioned at the webinar last week that hey we're approaching this previous swing high in combination with this swing low here so that's a confluence of support and obviously with the we had the non-farm payrolls ahead of us there was good chance there was going to be some movement in gold and we've got a nice hammer reversal here there's not been a bit much of a preceding trend so I can't really call it a hammer it just looks like a hammer in terms of the candle but not obviously a long wick suggesting some buying interest off that previous swing how you'd interpret that would be that you know resistance to support you know and then we're going up to retest resistance again so again dropping down to the daily chart we're holding this swing low at the moment so you know obviously the kind of opposite effect swing low turning into resistance on the on the on the upside but I would imagine that we're going to push through that and so then the next area of resistance would be the sort of 132 to 145 but we had quite a sharp reaction there that obviously quite a big sell-off from that point might be a bit of a difficult one to get through initially and so then some chance for a pullback to whether we you know maybe this 103 30 again I'm getting a bit ahead of myself we actually get above here and then maybe a drop to here and then up to the top of the range again is this sort of thing I'm looking to to play out here obviously you've got to be prepared for being wrong and you know if we get a drop right down through this this support here then I think that the game has changed and we're probably looking for a pretty sharp drop down into the one 260 so as long as you're able to sort of change your mindset if that support gives way could be a quite decent run because obviously we don't have too much in the way of support given this big jump that we had back in June on the I assume what was a good old but yeah on the the Brexit day obviously so that is it so we've got the ECB this week we've obviously had some interesting server sector server sector data from the UK building up nicely from Art Kearney talking on Wednesday not too much in the way of kind of corporate earnings but obviously we're back into September now so we're kind of moving out of summer trading it's a shortened week for the US but we could be back in business starting tomorrow when the US is trading again thank you very much for attending today good luck with your trading this week and it's Jasper Law signing out