 U.S. of course then the attention was front and center as you would have expected on that Fed decision overnight Simon Michelle live From fig for you with the very latest Simon welcome. I mean that sizable fall in the tenure on that CPI miss Kind of was always going to be the one to see a recovery on Leading into this release overnight, right? So you gratify that that sort of ran according to script Well, it's really interesting good afternoon Carson that you know the the Fed definitely stuck to increasing rates in June Also stuck to the pathway forward with another rate increase this year a three more in 2018 Whereas the market moved in the opposite direction. We saw the 10 years You suggest the hit an all-time low for the year at 2.13 percent Half a percent lower than the peak we saw back in March and interesting as well if you go a little bit longer out of the 30-year that's now down at a year lower as well at 277. That's been as high as 322 So that your curve as you suggest buying into those lower inflation forecasts those softer numbers are starting to lower Rates out in that longer end even on the back of the Fed sticking to that tightening Overnight and fairness it did lower its projections on inflation But at the same time do you think it was too heroic to alongside that up the GDP forecasts? Whilst also lowering the unemployment rate Well, this is interesting thing. They said on the back of the height They said that they weren't adjusting their dot points because they believe that the strong in employment numbers would Eventually lead to a bit of a pickup in inflation and they didn't really want to adjust the path But yet they did as you say, you know drop their forecast and obviously seen the same in growth And that's really what we've seen happening in that tenure rate that tenure rate has been moving down really mirroring that You know softer inflation expectation and obviously the softer growth numbers we've been seeing both in the US and here in Australia Do you think there is this kind of belief widespread now that they have for too long as seen this Outlook as a glass half full scenario and particularly, you know on the next course for the USD That these losses will not be transient that they could become entrenched Contrary to the Fed's own belief that it'll all pass and that will be back to the races and business as usual soon Look, I think there's two stories here I think obviously they want to provide a consistent message to the market So even you know when you do start to see some soft numbers coming out you start to see, you know That the data not meeting expectation. They're sticking to script. They don't want to adjust it yet They're talking, you know balance sheet reduction as well, you know moving that forward They've got a few sort of levers now Rather than just purely the cash rate If you look at what the market saying if you look at the Fed futures at the moment They don't see another rate increase this year. They see one in 2018 and about a 70% chance in 2019 now we know from the last couple of years that Well, the feds usually stuck to that messaging and stuck to that Pathway forward on rate hikes generally, you know, they've they've had to adjust that delay And and basically I suppose come and meet what the market was telling them Simon finally with changing of the guard at the very top of the institution Is that an opportunity to maybe recast the outlook a fresh and justify that because you are a new broom and old habits can Be swept away in that in that sense Look absolutely. I mean look, you know, I suppose that's always a possibility But I think you know what I tend to look at and I think you know what the market's telling us is that you know They're certainly starting to buy into this softer data and it's becoming a bit consistent as well You know, it's you know, it's easy to look through one quarter Maybe look through a couple but you know when you get consistent messaging and you know the the yield curve those longer rates Really over the last two months Continuing to fall and then we're seeing the data match that I mean here in Australia For example, we saw that drop in the growth rate pretty much mirrored by a drop in the 10-year rate It was both down about 70 basis points here on you speaking of which will sovereign bonds across a pack have been Basically up across the board. So Do we expect a continuation now on that trend or when do we get a sort of a ceasefire on those inverse moves? Well, it's interesting isn't it? I mean, I think the key thing we're looking at at the moment and you're seeing this reflected in the dollar as well Is that margin between US rates and an Aussie rates now now that you've got the US yield? Continuing to move lower You know Aussies fell on the back of that as well and we've certainly reached year lows as well Overnight in the Aussie 10 year, you know, when are we going to see that crossover? When are we going to see those your those US rates move higher than the Australian rates and what's the impact going to be on the dollar there? You know last time we saw that happen. We got a five in front of the Aussie dollar So, you know, it's going to be really interesting to see what impact that has and we're certainly approaching that point You know, the only five was the five basis points fall to 2.347 Believe tracking well a five-bit decline across detachment. That's right I mean it was down at 2.33 bounce up a couple of points on the back of that The employment data that came out at 1130 the same thing in the two years But you know didn't really have as big an impact as you're seeing in other markets Simon good to check in talk to you soon Thanks, Carson Simon Michelle from Feig. What are we?