 So I had five key observations and I'll talk you through each of them, but they really point for discussion. Some of them are not classically critiques of the book and incidentally I should say that the book is a worthy read. Dare I say that it's almost readable in a casual sense. It's wonderfully edited actually, so it's a really nice and well put together book. And so I'm basing my comments more on reading that book. The first is really to think about the manufacturing malaise and talk through some of the nuances perhaps that we can think about around this Africa's manufacturing malaise around which there's a lot of data. The second is to come back to the idea of the natural resource sector. Have we forgotten it in this sort of manufacturing Uber Alice? Have we forgotten the role that the natural resource sector can play? And then linking that and I think there's something there possibly around what the value of the economic complexity approach, what value it can bring to thinking about sectors beyond manufacturing. Fourth is just to generate a little bit of debate and it's a Roderick type point as you know is are we overstating the role that services can play and it's more just a playful set of thoughts really. And then finally because I'm a labor economist I've got to remind you that jobs do matter so I'll talk a little bit about that. So this is the classic sort of story of sort of structural, the lack of structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa. So we've got sexual productivity and employment over the period 1975 to 2010 incident I don't have it here but the same graph or the same period for Asia looks incredibly different but in essence what you have is of course the manufacturing over there. So low productivity, lack of employment creation in manufacturing for 30 odd years in Sub-Saharan Africa but the structural transformation has been from to some extent low productivity agriculture to slightly higher as the book puts it very well, slightly higher productivity not much higher productivity jobs in hotel and retail that's that big blob on the right hand side. So those are the low productivity urban informal sector jobs right, I'll come to that later but when you think about services we've got to be careful what we lump into that notion of services being the new option if you like. But there's something else going on and it links to the next slide which is that that little circle right on the top there is mining. So what you're really getting out of mining is very very high levels of productivity but no job creation and I want to argue that perhaps we should not just be looking at manufacturing but thinking about the opportunities that lay within mining with respect to building complexity but the other point which is more of a question for all of you experts not really my area is that I think because another sort of other work that we're doing in other along with academics in other disciplines in engineering in sanitation they think about manufacturing almost implicitly as the sector that can provide the spillovers naturally that other sectors can't the expertise logistics infrastructure and so on and that's really a question I have is whether we we're thinking carefully about manufacturing in that way but if we go back to the little small blob there that's my second my second key point which is what about the natural resource sectors I put this graph up because I think it's really important we talk about the African high growth story the economist article about seven of the ten fastest growing economies post 2000 in Africa well all of it was the natural resource sector based so this is a graph of the all the all the economies on the right hand side of the red dotted line are resource dependent economies and the 17 I've chosen are the 17 African lions if you like that they had the highest growth rates over the period 2008 to 2013 14 of the 17 were resource dependent economies so any growth story right any any growth and development story for sub-Saharan Africa has to be thinking about the natural resource sector and I just have two ideas there one is to what extent when we code manufacturing I think of some of the work that's been done by wider on Mozambique and we talk about manufacturing growth in Mozambique well those are aluminium smelters right last time I checked those and those are pretty capital intensive and it's downstream mining so I think there's a there's a story there about what we code as manufacturing but what is really downstream mining the other of course is you know arguments that have been made before by the bank and others that to what extent is there growth opportunity or growth and development discussion that we need to have industrial policy around using revenues from commodity price booms in sub-Saharan Africa so in fact the story there may be really about proper governance and management of natural resource booms within sub-Saharan Africa but can we do something with with with the natural resource sector and I want to argue that the notion of economic complexity which I want to bore you with is a really useful device for thinking about that what I have here are the ECI measures so the economic complexity index mapped against GDP per capita and the blue dots are African economies they're really two key points here one is that for the same level of GDP the leading manufacturers in sub-Saharan Africa I think it's Morocco South Africa Tunisia Egypt Mauritius for the same level of GDP there are less complex economies so there's something about the lack of diversity that we've got to try and explain when we think of high performing equal GDP emerging markets relative to those high performing sub-Saharan African economies of interest though but perhaps that's for John to look at and start a new project is these are the frontier manufacturers I think what's really interesting is that second group right behind the leading pack of what I've called the sort of frontier manufacturers based on the ECI index right so it's an endogenously generated estimate are really really interesting to think about but why am I talking about economic complexity and spillovers and the natural resource sector this is just one example you've seen these product space diagrams but this is a product space mapping for South Africa and it's fundamentally interesting because there's all sorts of things going on there there's so if you know this the bigger the circle the more dominant the export share is in the basket if it's a colored dot it's means that we're exporting if it's not colored there's nothing going on the merger towards the center gives you high tech exports right services are not in here of course but what's interesting is that all sorts of nodes whether it's agriculture whether it's horticulture coal leads to other sorts of products and so on and so the idea is can one think about the natural resource sector as the generator of growth in African economies and therefore the sector you need to look at for the next frontier product right and that's the obvious way to think about it and I'll give you two examples one is and we involved in a project as I said earlier with with scientists from other disciplines and it's a project on bamboo and it turns out that bamboo is really good at growing in on soil that has been destroyed by mining right so in fact you've got all this unproductive what we would call unproductive destroyed land sitting in mining intensive towns around the region right and bamboo in fact grows really well that's what the scientists tell us why bamboo well bamboo can then lead to and that's the product space story leads you into treated wood construction materials and as I found out has a sugar extract which can be used to make ice cream right and so out of out of the natural resource sector you get these sort of potential capabilities if you have them of course to move into other products the classic is from mining waste right into fertilizer and so what starts out as a discussion about manufacturing I'm sort of pivoting and say well do we not need to look at not just ignore mining but actually look at the natural resource sector as as an opportunity my fourth key point and I think I'm Carol's keeping time I've got two minutes fourth key point is again like I said let's just let's generate a little bit of debate is are do we really understand the services story I have few points there about thinking through it right I mean so we've argued that that manufacturing is not what it used to be and it's really about services right so my second bullet point is really not a question I don't think we can answer alone I think we need engineers I think we need all sorts of other scientists to tell us technically from a technical perspective can you actually build a dynamic export orientated services sector without building the capabilities that come with manufacturing first and I don't have an answer but that may be worth debating and I have arguments there that are bubbling in my head I mean it's it is manufacturing gives you road infrastructure rail infrastructure logistics cold storage right and I've got a little bit of a hope nobody's from Rwanda here a little bit of a dig at Rwanda is that can you really build drone capacity when you can't transport milk from one end of the country to the other right so there's a question mark there and I've used the great economist Roderick to to buffer my points there where as you know from the Africa growth miracle paper he argues that he doesn't see services as acting as an escalator for for for for Africa's development just finally is it is there a false dichotomy I think there is between manufacturing versus services versus mining I think there is but but but sometimes one wonders whether we shouldn't be sexually living across all those different sectors and I would argue maybe the economic complexity framework offers that but this is just for me it's always a stark reminder of the challenge right these are UN population database projections of the African workforce the right hand side of the table is really important because what it suggests if you just look at the percentage changes that's easy enough right but it's for Sub-Saharan Africa relative to the world but that percentage there right 37.3 means that by 2100 close to four out of 10 workers on the planet will be African and in many ways just brings home the point that if you're not going to think about jobs and a development strategy that's at least got labor intensity or job creation as part of it I think we've got a huge huge challenge ahead of us okay thanks