 Good morning or good afternoon Osaka. It's about 10 o'clock 10 30 here and or 10 o'clock in DC I hope everybody's Having a good time. I'm happy to be here. My name is Tom Schaller. I'm a professor of political science at the University of Maryland We're covering the elections all night here from Washington DC in the basement of the State Department And I'm happy to talk to you take your questions I'll try to give you a sense of where we are in the race right now Donald Trump is ahead in the Electoral College By about 30 or 40 electors We still don't have all the results from the East Coast the United States just yet. However, so The election is really going to turn probably on three big East Coast states, Virginia North Carolina and Florida which are still too close to call I think if either candidate wins all three of them that candidate is very likely to win the election And if they split two to one for one candidate or the other We may have a very long night where we don't know the election winner much like we didn't know 16 years ago in the George Bush Al Gore race so it's turning out to be an extraordinarily close election much closer than a lot of the polls had it and We will be trying to sort of analyze and deconstruct what's happening there and give you a sense of what happened in the 2016 campaign in both the nominating process and the general election here between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump So Welcome aboard and I'm happy to start taking questions from from the audience Okay, so time let me just Do a little explaining about what you just said to everybody here in Japanese I Okay Could you first tell us some how you're currently looking at the At the current situation Right now Donald Trump in states that have been called is up 139 electoral votes to 104 We have polls closed on the East Coast, but still counting in a lot of states polls have now begun to close in the Central time zone which includes states like Michigan and Minnesota and Iowa and Missouri, Texas and so forth So I think we'll have a number of new states that I'll be called once the election results come in from those state board of Elections and from the secretaries of state offices in those states There's still a lot of electoral votes still to be determined. I think Trump is clearly overperforming against Expectations it's a much more competitive race than we anticipated and I as I said earlier I think it's quite possible that it will be some time before we know a winner If we know a winner tonight Since you got Thomas we have a question for you and I'll have the person asking Japanese and I'll translate it for you into English I am since the Election has been really competitive and really intense right now. Are you what do you expect for American citizens? Reaction will be after the results came out Well, there was a lot of talk about voter unrest and potential voter violence on election day And there's been a lot of talk about the vote being rigged or there being electoral Shenanigans, but for the most part that's simply not true We have a system in all the states in DC that monitors the elections and monitors the results in the turnout We have observers from both parties watching each other and independent observers So there's a process in place and I think you know We've had peaceful transition of power every four years since George Washington was our first president in 1789 And we'll have peaceful transition of power no matter who wins The markets on the other hand look like They're reacting to the possibility of a Trump victory the Dow is down right now the Mexican peso is dropping So we'll see if the markets react differently, but I think for the most part Americans, you know half the country will be upset either way And the other half will be elated I Hello, I just want to ask about swing states So many swing states are still called to our it to call What do you think about this so far? Yes, I'm I'm surprised that we have we don't know the results in more states right now I think that's a reflection of the fact that Trump is doing better than the polls in the late stages of the campaign indicated And if that's true then Hillary Clinton who was the clear favorite going in more of those states are gonna be close and It'll take a longer time to certify all the votes in all the counties within those states And so we have a map that includes, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida Michigan may be called but not yet officially so We got a lot of states that are simply too close to call and That's not typical in recent presidential elections in recent presidential elections Most of the states were decided by five or ten points one way or the other and there are very few close states So this is a very different election than the last four or five Thank you I can't see the results right now, so the results are continuing several times. This time, it is one of the characteristics of the presidential election, which is not really open. Any other questions? Another question. This time, Trump has become a leader, so there was an existence called the secret Trump administration. Is it difficult to say that Trump is the leader of the country in America? Are there people around who were not able to publicly or even to their friends say that they were Trump supporters? It's possible. That's certainly one of the theories that's already being considered, whether there was this sort of silent Trump voter who either, A, didn't want to tell pollsters, or who, B, if we find out it's going to take some time, were under the radar in terms of registering for the first time this year or voting for the first time this year. Most of the evidence doesn't seem to show that there's this massive surge of white voter registration. So that's very curious that they would be late registrants because there's no evidence of that. That we would know. But it is possible that we're saying they were going to vote for a third party candidate or even vote for Hillary Clinton when in fact they were going to vote for Trump. It's also possible that the FBI investigation memo that came out about 10 days ago, a week ago Friday, moved the polls very dramatically in the last 10 days in a way that the polling didn't catch up with it. And that issue raised in the last 10 days, soured voters on Clinton, especially at a time when there was a lot of early voting. And though the FBI director later issued a subsequent follow-up saying there was nothing to those new emails, it was perhaps too late for a lot of people who had already moved over to Trump. So I think that's not a good reason to say that. But they said that they were going to vote for the third party candidate and that's actually what came out of Trump. And a week before that, they announced the FBI report. I think that's not a big deal. There was also a preliminary vote, and at that time, there was a announcement. I think that the people who went to the preliminary vote were going to vote for Trump, and if they couldn't change that, they would have changed a lot of things. And I think that's not a good reason to say that either. Next question. Okay, we have another question for you. Since I work for an advertising agency, I have a question about how the media coverage or the celebrities support affect the election results. For example, like Lady Gaga supports officially here. Her speech was quite possessive, so I'm just wondering how significant is that in the U.S. election. Thank you. I missed the last part that people laughed at. What was that about the media coverage? How the media coverage and how the fact that celebrities have come out, and for example, Lady Gaga and Bon Jovi came out in big support of Clinton, and how the media coverage and how the celebrity support has had an effect on the outcome this evening. I don't know that celebrity support has really that much effect. A lot of entertainers in Hollywood and musicians are more liberal, more democratic, and for every voter that they attract to Hillary Clinton, they probably turn off a voter who doesn't think that people who are entertainers and celebrities should be meddling in the elections, whether it's Jay-Z or whether it's Ted Nugent who supported Donald Trump. So why don't you translate that part and then I'll give you a larger media answer. Okay. First of all, it's the role of the celebrity, the role of the celebrity, but it doesn't really have an effect on the outcome. If I'm not mistaken, there are a lot of people who think more than the public, and Lady Gaga and Jay-Z have come out and supported Clinton, but it doesn't really have an effect on the outcome. In terms of the media coverage, there's been a lot of criticism of how the media covered this election. There was very little issue and policy coverage. In fact, there was more coverage of Hillary Clinton's email scandal than there was of all policies and issues combined. Donald Trump also got an extraordinary amount of free media. As the New York Times showed back during the primaries, he got about $2 billion worth of free media, which is how he ran in the Republican primary in one, even though he spent very little money on campaign ads, because he was basically on TV the whole time because of controversial comments and stuff. I think there's going to be some soul searching within the media about how they covered this election, both in the primary stage and in the general election stage, and a rather policy and issue-free election, and also a discussion about whether the media's proper role is to fact-check candidates and the things that they say in debates and in campaign speeches and at rallies. In terms of how the media did this election, there were very few problems with the production, so there was a very unique way of reporting on the media. In the case of Clinton, there was almost no email problem. On the other hand, in Trump's case, he was very good as a businessman. Before he became a candidate for the election, he was able to do a lot of free media with about $2 million worth of free media. He was very good as a businessman, so there was a very different way of reporting on the media. Anyone else? We have another question for you, Thomas. The first question was, Hillary Clinton is the first female candidate running for the office of the US president from one of the two major political parties. What sort of effect has that had on her chances of becoming president? Well, it's an interesting question. In some ways, it should advantage her. Women in America cast a majority of the votes in most election cycles, and in every presidential cycle since 1984, and they vote majority Democratic, and she's a Democrat, so in some senses her gender is an advantage. In other respects, it has been a disadvantage. Some say that women candidates get treated differently. There's comments about their voice and about their laugh and their smile and their hair and the clothes that they wear and whether or not women are able to be president or fit to lead the country. And some people think that the attacks on her have been unfair in a way that they wouldn't have been against a male candidate, Democrat or Republican. In terms of history, there are more women than men. So, as a female candidate, I think that she's a leader. And another thing is that after 1984, in the presidential cycle, there are a lot of votes for women. But on the other hand, the question of whether or not women can represent America is actually being discussed. In other words, even during the election, her hairstyle, her smile, and her costume were very close-up. And this time, she was a female candidate, so I can't say whether or not women are able to represent America. Any other questions? Okay, we have another question. In the new year, Trump is calling for a 207 vote. What do you think about that? So, Thomas, here in the room, we're looking at the actual CNN broadcast. And one projection that they are making is that Trump is going to get the 270 electoral votes needed to become president. What do you think about that? I don't think they're calling it just yet, but I think he's probably in a better position to win it than he was an hour or two ago. He's starting to widen his lead in North Carolina, and if he wins there and he wins in Florida, his path gets a lot easier, even if Hillary Clinton holds Virginia. And then if he manages to win states in the Upper Midwest, like Wisconsin and Michigan that you're seeing on CNN right now, it becomes very difficult for her to win. So, we'll see how those states shake out. I think he'll probably win North Carolina. I think she'll probably win Virginia, and the election may come down again to Florida with the winner of that, having the advantage going into the rest of the night, and the loser of that being disadvantaged going in the rest of the night. So, I think it's going to be a very close race, and some of the precincts that aren't in are in urban areas, which are overwhelmingly Democratic, and Hillary Clinton will pull some of these states out even though she's trailing, and it's also possible that they go the other way and that we have something of a major victory for Trump, where he sweeps through Ohio and Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and really changes the map in a dramatic fashion. So, it's a little too early to say right now, but it's very, very close. Thank you very much. Thank you. So, Thomas, I'd like to ask you a question. How much of a fact has immigration played in this election as far as the way the voting is concerned? Yeah, I think immigration was probably the most important issue of the entire election. It was clearly the issue that Donald Trump used to catapult him from five, six, seven percent in the Republican polls in the summer of 2015. He jumped to the lead with his comments about immigration and building a border wall, and he basically never gave that lead up for the rest of the time in the Republican primary, which he, of course, won. And then he used immigration again in the general election to really divide the country, but also rally a lot of voters to his side who believe that we have porous borders and weak immigration policy and need a wall. So, there's no issue, I think, maybe trade, but really immigration as a big issue that played very strongly in both the primary and the general election stage. Thank you very much. Okay. Now, also, Thomas, as far as immigration is concerned, another question I'd like to ask you is about, for example, new Americans, okay, people, young people whose parents were, say, illegal immigrants, now they have become American citizens because they were born in the United States and they now have to vote. Have they had any impact or any effects on the this year's election? Well, many of the people who were born here with parents who aren't citizens, a lot of them are still too young to vote, particularly Latinos, which have a very high share of the population that's under 18. So, though some of them, of course, are age-eligible and do vote, yes, I mean, they're obviously going to have a big impact on future elections as they grow older and a higher and higher share of them become age-eligible in future elections. As for their parents who are not citizens, obviously they can't vote, and there were stories this year about people showing up who weren't citizens and eligible to vote in Latino communities saying, I can't vote, but I'm going to you vote if you can. And knocking on doors, even though they themselves weren't eligible to vote. So that can be a continuing story as we move forward, particularly if Trump wins and we begin to see a change in the executive order signed by President Obama and Trump begins to deport the parents of these children's citizens. First of all, the parents, of course, are still American citizens. But they don't have the right to vote for themselves, but they do have the right to vote for those who have the right to vote. And most of them are still 18 years old, and some of them aren't. But I think it's going to affect the future of the presidential election and your thoughts on it. All right, so Thomas, I'd like to thank you very much for talking to us this evening. And we have a lot of work to do ahead of us. We don't know who's going to be the next president, do we? Well, I want to thank you all for coming tonight. And before I leave, I just want to remind our viewers who are following us online that we have another event coming up with South Africa at 10.45 Eastern time. That's in 15 minutes. And those who want to follow us online can do that as well and send in questions online at share.america.gov. So thanks a lot, Osaka, and good luck. Okay, thank you very much. Bye.