 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We are on to the quarterfinals in this year's World Cup as the round of 16 has wrapped up We're gonna break down that round of eight and talk about some matches talk about some other bets We like for this week by bringing in Dr. Ed Feng and getting his read on the rest of the field This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as mentioned by Dr Ed Feng to fight his work over at the power rank calm Ed we are on to the quarterfinals for the World Cup. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I had a friend in town. We watched a lot of World Cup hung out So I can't complain at all. Yeah, and we're talking about the the US's loss to the Netherlands We're gonna talk about other stuff that happened during the round of 16 and also take a look forward to the round of eight as well But Ed I was a cruise and Twitter today and I saw our friend Adria Percival was tweeting about how he back tests college football and he back tests all these models and sees they do against the spread and straight up and Your college football numbers a year have actually beaten the market You have been better at picking straight-up winners than even closing lines, which is kind of insane. So a congrats That's pretty sick, but be What happened to make the numbers be so good this year um I mean, look, I think it's a little bit of of good fortune that it's doing so well straight up against the closing markets Um, actually if I if I could plug it a little bit, uh over the last four seasons in the nfl I've actually done better straight up than the closing markets So I guess that's a little that's probably not exactly a huge sample size But anyways, I feel a little bit more confident with with nfl um But but it's clearly nice that things are doing pretty well I mean and and I think like if you bet these numbers early You're also going to be doing pretty well if you try to use my numbers Only in bet on saturday mornings. That's that's probably not going to get you too far. But um Yeah, I mean, I I think it's been really good Again, I've talked a lot on this show about how the model works and how it tends to be pretty aggressive And I think those aggressive adjustments have worked out pretty well this year And I think it's a it's a good omen heading into uh bull pool season Where you are asked to pick the outcome of games straight up and I always think it's a useful tool to use my numbers to help you and win your bull pool But probably even a little bit more so this year and In the past you've done like bowl Guides, I'm assuming this year at the world cup. That's probably not going to happen. Am I correct in that assumption? No, it'll happen. I'll get to it next week. How uh, where where is the time coming from for you to do this? Oh, I don't know not really sure but uh, yeah, no, there'll be there'll be one up next week I'm kind of making the assumption that no one cares about their bull pool this week Yeah, and that uh, if it happens early next week, it'll be plenty of time before I believe the first game kicks off next Not this saturday, but the saturday after we don't get clv in bull pools So there's really no advantage to being early on those so that's awesome I just want to congratulate you on a good year for your numbers You had another one of those it's like part of the reason why You're able to beat the the spreads is because you had a lot of underdogs that your model favored straight up and Got one of those on friday with the utah win I don't know if you haven't straight up but you had them plus two and a half Against usc. So that was a nice one too. I know obviously the kelly williams injury factored into that But like yeah, I mean you had a good year. It was awesome. Yeah, it was a good year I I did have utah straight up in that game I actually purposely didn't say it in the newsletter that I had utah by four points because It's never never good to be off the market by seven points Um, so I I wasn't explicit about that, but I had utah by four um And you know, I mean my reasons for liking utah on that game were usc's absurd turnover margin that was going to tend to Regress and usc's terrible defense And while I would argue that neither of those things came to fruition in the first half they both Came out full force in the second half and uh And uh, yeah, it was it was a nice little nice little win there. Yeah, good way to close out the year We'll talk more college football getting ready for the playoffs But overall very good year for ads numbers over at the power rank dot com We're gonna dig into the quarterfinals of the world cup here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering this spread Wherever you get your podcast on that feed you will find our nfl week 14 first look breaking down What my numbers are saying about this week's markets to get that there and also are we gonna Are nfo week 14 full preview with ryan williams coming up tomorrow and player prop breakdown the jj sakari Send later on as well all those up on the covering the spread podcast feed and over on the fandal youtube page So subscribe wherever you prefer to take in this podcast with only a handful of monday football games Or many left this season fandal and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding monday nights is at an all-time high Introducing monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free-to-play contest series on fandal That gives you a chance to win a share of ten thousand dollars in cash prizes courtesy of visa Here's how it works You'll be presented with ten questions centered around on field action for monday nights nfl game Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win their share of ten thousand dollars in total prizes if that's easy The contest is now live said at fandal dot com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks and make your picks before monday night That's fandal dot com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks No purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply void. We're prohibited c full terms at fandal dot com visa And its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion in any way Let's shift our focus now to the world cup before we take a look at the quarter finals I didn't want to go back to the round of 16 talk about that usa versus netherlands matchup and kind of give a post mortem here on the us What were your final thoughts on the us and what we saw from them in this year's tournament? So i've been screaming as loud as i can about how georan should be on the pitch and how He can play center forward So Nine is is usually center four. This is supposed to be your goal score the us does not has you know history's worst tradition of producing center forwards We really haven't had a good one since i've probably ever but certainly since i've been been really watching the sport over the last 20 some years And if you don't have a good center forward just put your most talented player up there and georana came in the second half And i was pretty happy and then georana didn't really play that well. So that was A little bit disappointing. Yeah, he had a nice. He had a nice little give and go with uh brennan narenson, but So i was a little bit disappointed in that but but i kind of like the idea they call this like a false nine You essentially put like a talented smaller player at your center forward spain won a world cup with that in 2010 and So, yeah, it was nice to see reyna get on there. I was disappointed that he couldn't do better. He kind of looked um He kind of looked like uh weston mckinney in that he wasn't really his full self looks like he's still coming back from injury Uh, I unfortunately haven't had too much of a chance to see med dormant, but out there at least in what 40 ish minutes Uh, he didn't look like the georana that that We all know and so either that could just be the small sample size or Just that he's not quite back from from an injury The other thing is that the dutch finished Really really well. Uh, they they had a couple chance. They hit three one timers that all went into the back of the net and You know, if you don't watch watch much soccer you'd be like, oh, well, they're they're great at finishing um But to just give you a sense for how hard that was like in the france game there was like a perfect cross that like got onto the foot of elivia jiroux who is france's all-time leader in Goals scored and he was unable to finish it. It was a tap in that I would argue that was arguably easier than any of Uh, the three goals that the dutch scored So I think the u.s. Got a little bit unlucky. They were pretty even on expected goals Uh, one of them was that third goal where it was just kind of a defensive bust that no one was back at the back post there so This goes I I think the dutch are a little bit overrated. Um So I don't see them going so too too much further although we'll talk a little bit about how Uh, I think the markets are coming around to the fact that argentina was a little bit overrated at the beginning of the tournament as well It should be a fun match very skilled match Uh, a good one to watch and then also, I mean, I think the future is pretty bright for the us Yeah, um, you have uh, a core of christian pool is that brennan erinson georena west mckinney, um The sojina desk and and and actually we should probably put timoya into that group right now Those those six players are are really strong Players that are playing champions league level club soccer in europe and that that's the core you can build on The problem is like four of those guys are wingers for those six players are wingers, which makes it really hard to get them all on The field at the same time But we do have a good core, uh, you know, if you're The odds that we get a great center forward in four years before we host the world cup in 2026 are pretty small But maybe we can get some help at center back. Um, we could use a little bit of help there in terms of getting the quick passing game that that we all like to see the us play And um, yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot to look forward to I think it was good for them to get out of this group Obviously want a little bit more in the round of 16 But you know, I don't think this is the first time that the us has spent a lot of energy and effort getting out of a reasonably hard group To not hit their highest energy level in the round of 16 and go out It's kind of where you expect, you know, like the 16th best team in the world to end up in the world cup We always hope for better But but maybe we'll see that in four years when we have a little little home field advantage So this can be hard to extrapolate because it is pretty far out What do you think the ceiling is because they have that young core? Are we talking like it's a legit ceiling? I know that's tough. That's a tough question to answer right now. But where do you see that ceiling? I mean, I've always wanted to see this team be a top 10 team in the world And I really thought with this generation of players that we would get there Unfortunately, I think the rest of the world is also getting better. Yeah, uh, England in 2022 is Is simply just not the same England of 2010 where the us and England also played in a world cup England is really advanced their youth development is is getting better and better um I mean, Germany's a lot better team. I know I know the results don't show it in this world cup, but Uh, germany was brilliant and continues to get better. The french are always going to be talented so You know, I mean, I think they're they I would love to see them be a top 10 team and and and a team that you Expect to get into the quarterfinals. Uh, we're not quite there yet. I'm not exactly sure how we get there either without, you know, a couple Uh, you know getting getting another couple great players Uh, but we'll see now you alluded to germany. Let's talk about other route of 16 takeaways Obviously they did not advance but you correctly predicted the way that match would play out in terms of like chaos You said over three and a half goals minus 118. You were like, hey, it's a fish bit But I think it's the right side and it was very much the right side because that game was wild Any other big takeaways for you from the round of 16? Yeah, spain. Let's talk about spain. It's just such a talented team one. I really like to watch play Um, but a team that's a little bit too interested in possessing the ball and not enough interested in scoring the ball So after they they won seven nothing versus costa rica and I think had three xg in the game and three xg in the game So three expected goals is is huge. Yeah, the huge total um, at least according to I get all I get my stuff from uh From at least this morning. I looked at fb rough Another good source is xg philosophy on twitter. He'll he'll post these things Well, he or she will post these things on on twitter after the games but you know spain didn't uh exceed one xg again since that that costa rica match and Yeah, I don't know. I mean with all that talent. I think you have to be a little bit more aggressive You you have to attack you have to try to create more scoring opportunities and and they didn't And uh, just completely flamed out that penalty kick shootout against morocco It was kind of which was which was kind of insane. Um, I think the markets were I mean you should usually think of these Penalty shootouts as a toss up. I think the markets were favoring spain, which I thought was correct Uh, I think you should kind of favor the more skillful team But that that did not work out In in the slightest bit. So so they they flamed out And honestly, that was uh, that was the only real upset pretty chalky round of 16 in seven of the eight matches. Definitely had some excitement here and there. Um, but uh Yeah, no, and I think it sets up for a lot of heavyweight battles, uh going down the stretcher If any thoughts around that that germany match, obviously disappointing down in advance But like it was a interesting that group specifically was wild. Uh, I thought that it was interesting there as well Yeah, for sure So germany goes up one nothing and spain goes up one nothing and germany is essentially through And what happened? I thought germany was brilliant the first 10 minutes And then they kind of took their foot off the gas Which I thought was the wrong strategy because you certainly could have ended up in the situation like eventually happened That japan beats spain and then you're screwed because you can't beat spain on gold differential because Spain put up seven nothing against costa rica and now you are playing costa rica So that game goes into half and it's only one nothing germany my over three and a half is not looking good And so at the half you're just kind of sitting there like, okay, what's going on Second half starts japan's score is not one but two goals. The second of which was uh controversial Um, actually, I think the right call, uh, but anyway, I saw an angle of it They I don't think they showed in the broadcast but an angle where it was pretty clearly like still in I thought yeah No, I think I think it was I think it was clearly in and obviously like that goal Screwed germany and germany ends up going home, but I think in the second half you saw just how explosive germany is um I mean that's kind of how I expected that that's kind of what I expected them to do against costa rica And they scored it well and it easily goes over But but they can't I mean there's there's no way They were gonna get look even if they put the pedals in the metal in this in the first half and went all out the entire game It's unlikely that they passed spain and gold differential, but the way it happens, right? So yeah But yeah, you know at least my bet won and I mean they you know, I mean I thought germany played really well against japan they just allowed a couple counterattack goals that You know could they have done better? Sure But but they lost that one japan got that second goal and uh, it's a shame Um, I mean honestly like they're gonna be favored at home in euro in two years Because they're gonna have the home field advantage. So, um We'll see they they fired one of the one of the head honchos in in the f a but they have not fired the coach yet So we'll see what happens there. Yeah that day of like the chaos of that group was fun So, uh, I I enjoyed as again a very very very aggressively casual observer. I had a lot of fun with that for sure Okay, let's look forward now to the quarterfinal matches. We got all four Quarterfinal matches set and the lines are set over a fandal sportsbook When you look at those beginning friday any value you see a fandal sportsbook for those ed Yeah, so I'm gonna not go with my public type over bet that I had last time I really think you should be betting under goals in this I think I said this last time, you know, the wind draw Wind loss draw market is going to be incredibly efficient as you head into the kickoff of these matches We still have a little bit of time before saturday's matches So, I mean you can kind of tell the holds aren't quite what they will be friday and saturday morning But I still would not recommend trying to find value in those markets try try to go Into to different markets and I'll talk about another one later France in england is really the heavyweight battle here In in this quarterfinals. It should be a heck of a match. It's very very close France is a slight favorite to advance over england. Honestly, I think this england team is really good I think it's I think it's a really talented team But I do like the under in this my numbers have it You can get minus 126 for under two and a half goals here I think this is going to be kind of a it's a pretty tight game It's going to be england's probably going to sit back and try to counter attack even though they don't really have to I think france You know, maybe a little bit overrated just with the way that imbappe kind of finished some chances In the round of of 16 match up So, yeah, I think it's going to be a tight. I think it's going to be tight one You can kind of tell by the wind while a straw market, you know the the probability for a draw is the highest in this one amongst all the four matches And I think it's going to be Uh, I think it's going to be tight. Um, I like under two and a half goals You can get a minus 126 at vandal. Every time I've talked about a bet on the show. I think vandal has moved against me so Maybe you can weigh a little bit on this I don't know We're calling the odds boost. Let's call it that. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I think john's listening to this and the other way just But that's the psyche a little bit The tie market there is plus 220 For the england versus france match, you don't have to like recommend a bet for this one But like how do you see them playing out in terms of like who you think will advance in that game? Because it is like you said a super high profile matchup Yeah, I really don't know. I mean I don't know. I think it's going to be tight. I think I've been kind of underestimating england over the last year Uh, I think they really have gotten better Uh, france is just so so talented um Yeah, I really don't know. I mean, I I think maybe maybe the further the further you get into it Uh, if it does go to the penalty shootouts, I would I would like france. I like france's chances because I do think they're Um, a little bit more skilled in that area But uh, yeah, I don't know. I think both teams are going to be tight and they're they're not going to want to give up advantages And hence hence the under here. All right So under two and a half as you said is minus 126 of fangirl sportsbook for france and england any other bets you're seeing right now Whether be match bets for the quarterfinals or any other markets you like right now Yeah, you know, you kind of sent me an email about like the outright market and uh, I don't I think this is I think the outright market is pretty fair Um, you know, you're still looking at brazil as a pretty big favorite And I think that makes a lot of sense because I I don't know how much resistance Croatia is going to be able to give them in this quarterfinal cruz is old Uh, and brazil is talented. So they have the easiest Way to get through at least this round into the semis Um, and now, you know, france has the hardest matchup But they are the second favorite and I think that says a lot about you know, the markets considered france is the second best favorite now Whereas that was argentina at the beginning of the tournament So I think the markets have kind of flipped there you would kind of hope I kind of I don't know. I kind of wish I would have bet portugal at the beginning of the tournament because they are such a talented team overall and Yeah, they bench vinaldo for this last game And his backup scored a hat trick And you know, he's got a lot of work to do. He's obviously very talented and you know more talented than than any center forward that the us has ever produced or might ever produce but He's gonna have to do a lot of work To be to be known anything other than the guy who replaced ronaldo in the 2022 world cup But but he was brilliant and Yeah, I mean, who knows who they're going to start there I I I don't think you can start ronaldo who doesn't even start for manu at this point Over this kid. I just I don't I don't think you can do that. So, um, you know, portugal has been great So I do think that outright market is uh, it's pretty sharp right now So one one thing I will uh, recommend, you know, if you go over to draft kings They pretty much have like that you can bet on even odd for total goals and they're pretty much putting out markets that, um Have it 50 50 And that really shouldn't be the case with some of these low expected low scoring games like france england You would expect it to be a little bit favored towards even simply because Uh, the possibility of zero the possibility of two is going to be a little bit more in in a low scoring game So, um, you know, you can bet bet france england, uh, minus 110 to be even I think there is some value there. I think the the probability should probably be closer to 54 percent Um, and the same applies for argentina than other ones There over at dk, it's it's going to be a minus 115 But I still think there's there's value there and betting even for the goal total Of that it's a very creative market. I think that's a fun way to do it now going back to the outrides Obviously, I'm not seeing any value there, but you mentioned argentina. They're down to plus 550 Is that more in line with where your numbers have them or are they still overvalued? Uh, broadly in the market in your eyes Um, I don't really know that feels about right. Um, you know in my numbers, they're they're lower They're they're top 10, but kind of in the lower in the top 10 that seems about right given their match up With with the netherlands something that they should be a favorite in My my numbers have the netherlands uh overrated for whatever reason But yeah, that seems about right with with argentina and portugal in about the same place I think I think those nations are about the same. They're they're not as good as brazil and france Um, but they're still talented All right. Well, we got these games these matches kicking off on friday It's gonna be a lot of fun to see how things play out here What more world cup talk coming up on the show? Obviously as we get closer to the end It's gonna be a lot of fun But uh, it's been a pleasure to talk with you at throughout the tournament already But it's still plenty more to come in that regard before let's go ahead though. Got to ask What is going on for you this week at the power rank where you can go find your world soccer numbers if they are on the search that Yeah, check it out at the power rank dot com. I've been pretty fortunate that uh The world soccer rankings picked up a lot of search engine juice and so it's actually the most visited page on the site and so Come come over and uh, check it out. I also have predictions for All for the quarterfinal matches both when law straw and the probability to move on So you can check that out and then while you're here, you can sign up for my free sports betting email newsletter Try to give out tips and bets like you taught at usc and a lot of stuff head into bowl season So check that out at the power rank dot com. Yeah, that would include all member numbers signing up for that For college football the bowls gonna be i'm sure a delight for you to deal with all the opt outs the coaching stuff So god speed ed enjoy. I'm sure that'll be a lot of fun, but uh, check that out over at the power rank We'll do my best And uh, check out ed's podcast while the football analytics show you can find ed on twitter at the power rank I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s We are back once again tomorrow to break down and if that week number 14 with ryan williams Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread to get that right as it goes live We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network