 Good morning, Stephen, starting in a few seconds. Good morning, everybody. Eight o'clock, breakfast hour, welcome to NFP morning. It is Friday, the 5th of January, 2024. And I have to keep saying the last word, the 2024, to remind myself that we are in a new year and we're all another year older. Hope everybody is really well. We have some news this morning. So anyway, let's move ahead. So we have time to look at the markets and do our prep. Disclaimers, all book map limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Trading futures, equities, and digital currencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Yeah, I rushed that a little bit, but I think we've got a fairly tight hour. Yeah, quick look or quick check on a zoomed out picture of the heat maps before we do any of the slideshow. The only thing I really wanted to do here by zooming out was to show you where yesterday's low was for NQ on the left and ES on the right. By the way, a warm welcome to anybody who hasn't been here before. I will try and cover what's in these heat maps because they might be a little bit different from some of the other book map presenters that you may have watched. So we'll try and do that. But yeah, my point is that we are well under yesterday's low, so we're broken below. So we're continuing on the daily to explore. So in terms of what we're going to do this hour, we're going to do our little prep, our slideshow, and discuss the auction in the TPAs as we usually do. We're going to join our friends at Financial Juice Live just before 8.30 when the non-farm payrolls is out. And we will do some live order flow analysis sort of going into that 8.30 and just afterwards. And hopefully I'm going to get 15 minutes towards the end after all the really volatile action or hopefully it will calm down a bit. After the expected volatile action has calmed down a bit to continue on my topic of some of these trader challenges, these prop firm challenges. I think previously, I think it was last week or the week before I showed myself and just the equity curve when I did the most recent one that I've done. I've passed a few with different providers. But I just want to give a little overview. I know they're of interest because all you have to do is go to YouTube and search some of this stuff. And you'll see hundreds of thousands of views and people are fascinated by these things. But I'm going to do a little spreadsheet of a way to a suggested way. I never recommend anything, just a suggested way that you might want to tackle them if you're interested in NQ ETH type trading. So I'll try and squeeze that in at the end. Anyway, we are having a bearish day, but let's do the slideshow. So click on it. OK, the first thing to do, this is just from now onwards. So I have not covered the European news. There was some economic release or there were some economic releases during the European morning. They're all CPI related. And they all came in worse than expected. So that has added or maybe given a little bit more emphasis to the down movement that we have been seeing. Anyway, back to our hour. And we have both Canadian and USD unemployment. So we've got our non-farm payrolls. That's the most important news item that we have on the books today. And also at 10 a.m., we've got another red or high priority item. That's the ISM Services PMI. But I still think that the 830 non-farm payrolls is the most important one on the book today. And also in the afternoon, we've got Fed Barking speaking again that we had her in Wednesday during our hour. Okay, keep moving. All right. The daily for ES. And I'll go into a bit more detail on this, especially this long thin bar or the extended range bar that we are retracing at the moment or this week in ES. But yeah, I've just drawn a bar across a couple of the significant previous swing highs and we are on our way down there at the moment. So what I was saying last week is we hadn't seen any really bearish action, but clearly we have now broken the first swing low that was there on this way up. And now we're going into a major area, but we'll look at that on the TPO right across to NQ. And we're right at what was the previous swing high before the big move down and then the big move up. So again, into a significant zone and quite clearly bearish action on the daily bars. You can just look at the fact that they've retraced a lot of that October move. And that is the point, if you've got the whole move up there and we've retraced at least 50% of it. So this has been a decent pullback so far. If you're into all that Fibonacci stuff, you'd probably be measuring this swing and seeing if we were at exactly at a 50% retracing or you'd come up with some other things to do with magical 67% or 68.4, I think it was the Fibonacci numbers. I have researched all that. I concur with Adam Grimes in terms of the statistical probability of pullbacks on major pullbacks. They're somewhere in the 40 to 60% range statistically as the high probability for a pullback if it is likely to continue in the same direction. But I do not see any magic from any of the research I have ever done on the Fibonacci numbers. So that is my personal viewpoint. I don't mean to offend anybody, but that is the research that I've conducted and I do not pay them any attention. And I won't be mentioning them again in this stream. Okay, today's ETH, so this is from TradingView. You can see, again, the shaded area is one standard deviation either side of VWAP. And we're using it as a proxy for developing value in the auction during the ETH session. That's the extended trading hours session. And you can see both on, well, if we start looking at ES, it broke down, came back, tagged it, and we've basically been moving along or close to ish the second deviation line. So we are exploring or trending. So we're staying out of value and trending. Why do I say we're staying out of value? Because every time we touch that shaded area, we are effectively rejecting it. We are not looking for specific trades at exact touches. That is just a rough, rough guide and nothing else. NQ had a better pullback and actually touched its VWAP, its GlobEx VWAP. And yesterday's low, yesterday's GlobEx low, is also the RTH low. So there was nice confluence there that you can see on that big pullback. So to tag that and VWAP and then rejected firmly downwards. So there we go. Right, we've got three of these screenshots today. This is again, this is a free trading tool. I only try and use as many free things that we can to demonstrate practical value to people that are watching. So this is the stock heat map across the entire board from TradingView, it's totally free. This one is a weekly snapshot. So why am I showing it? Because it clearly divides the different sectors and the stocks within those sectors into nice little rectangles. So it's easy to see on a weekly daily or whatever snapshot what is really, really bearish and what is bullish. So over the week, you can see the finance sector which is in the middle. Couple of the big names like JPM and Berkshire Hathaway have been quite strongly positive still which gives all ends weight to the RTY being stronger than the other three indices futures. And you can see that the tech sector has been smashed and in particular, the two that have been smashed significantly or you've got Amazon over there but you've got Apple and Nvidia. And Nvidia remember it was the darling of the AI rally. So the fact that that has come down 3.3% in a week is significant. This is yesterday's. So you can see again, actually Nvidia had a good day yesterday but Apple, Google, Amazon continued to be quite bearish. So yesterday wasn't as bad. Yesterday remember was quite a strong morning and then a sharp reversal in the afternoon. Okay. And finally the third screenshot of this, the pre-market. I find this is useful because they have improved this lately so that this does regularly update. I'm not sure of the period that it updates but it's something like every five minutes. So that if you left this on your screen I've got four enormous screens. So I can see it at all times because I've got the space at the moment. It's a way of seeing what is happening after about from one hour after London opened. So it's about, it's actually 65 minutes after London opens that this really starts updating regularly. So you can see if there's any kind of momentum in any particular sector or stock. So that's why I have it there because if we are trading NASDAQ and ES it is always good to know the underlines. Okay. And finally just a quick snapshot of ranges and relative volume. Relative volume has been over 100% all day so it's been very, very good. And obviously there have been an awful lot of opportunities if you were looking to trade. Okay. Quickly onto TPO's because I said I'd mentioned something that I was talking about on Wednesday. Right. When I was talking on Wednesday, let me dig out the pen and we were talking about these TPO's and I was talking about this retracing Wednesday is this day here. So this is Wednesday and we were talking about it before the RTA session, before this happened. So it would have been somewhere around about there that we were talking. We were saying that on this particular TPO we noticed how thin it was, right? And you can always go back to the YouTube recording. Anything I say is gonna haunt me because it is on YouTube. So if I talk utter and total bullshit and I lie through my teeth you can always call me out by going back to YouTube and looking at it. And yeah, so we said or I said that this was really thin and I also said that when price travels very quickly through a thin area or travels through an area without much trade of trade volume occurring when it finally gets back to retracing that it tends to travel through it quite quickly. It'll go up quickly through it and down quickly through it. And remember this is a daily chart so we're not talking about a second or five seconds or five minutes we're talking in terms of days. So since we've touched, we've touched on effectively this is the draw points. So since yesterday got into it we're quickly getting through and the single which is the point at which it becomes really thin is here and we are very, very close already. So we've effectively done that, right? This is now a completely hindsight comment. It is too late for me or anyone else to take action on it but there is something worth saying which is that we always learn from mistakes that we made and we also learn from opportunities that we might have missed. We don't just go, oh damn I missed an opportunity. Maybe you didn't get some good swings in this period. By the way, there is a police car going past so I'm hoping on the headset, nobody can hear it. I've got my windows wide open because we are in the Perth summer and it is hot and I don't like living in air conditioning 24 hours a day but I don't think you can hear anything. I think it stopped and gone to wherever it's going. Anyway, so we have missed an opportunity if we didn't trade this. So what can we learn about such an opportunity for the next time? Right, maybe this wasn't easy to trade from a day trade perspective with the setups that you typically use, okay? There is always another option there and I'm using the word option in the pun sense. So when we were talking about it here on after Tuesday's RTH there, one of the options that was still available was a vertical spread, a credit or debit spread in calls or puts in the indices ETFs. So the cheapest ones and they're still very, very highly traded are typically SPY options and QQQ options. So you don't have to be an options rocket scientist to if you don't already know about simple call spreads. Very, very easy to learn about them. I can't teach you here and now but you could have used one of those because it does have finite risk. In other words, you have your risk control and aimed to get to this level there. So that's just a hindsight learning comment. I wish I had bought one the other day when I was talking about it. And again, it's on YouTube so you can always go back to the comments that I made. Let's get rid of that and do a time check because we've got some news coming up at 8.30. Quickly, we will go on to the NQ, okay. What can we say about this one? We can see that since we broke through yesterday's low we've got a reasonably nice bell curve. So this isn't very thin so it's not gonna have that kind of thin sweeping thin thin retracing type action that I often talk about on the micro action on the heat map but it's quite nicely well-traded distribution. So that is worth pointing out. And it's also worth looking at this on a zoomed out perspective. So let us zoom out and let us shrink the axis. So we can see once we get past this level here whatever that is, it's about 16, the 16, 400s. Let me just zoom right into that one. So it can be seen on the 16, 330s, I think it is. Then we get back to a more traded area. So it'll be interesting to see whether with the news release in a few minutes whether we finish off this type action into about that zone and then finally have a bounce or whether we continue to a like an HVN type zone. Just speculation, who knows what will happen. And if we go back quickly to the ES1 and speculate about what might happen since we have effectively finished this, the next highly traded little high volume node is around about here. Whoops, come on, pen is about here, this little zone here. So it'll be interesting to see if we get straight to there on any reaction to the news again who knows what the news will be. We've noticed that the European news was worse than expected but this is unemployment rather than CPI. So, yeah, that would be an interesting little place for them maybe to balance or bounce. Just a thought and it's just pure speculation. So let us ignore that. Okay, and let us get back to the heat map. Aha, now some people are aware that they can ask me questions and I will always answer. I was busy talking for a little while there. Nice little slip up there. By the way, one of the things that I do talk about on this is when you go vertical price action on this price line that often retraces and the probabilities around about 80% doesn't have to be immediately but it does happen very often. Okay, I am just reading across the YouTube comments and welcome anybody on YouTube at the moment. Tom Cleary, thank you for the webinar training. May I ask what chatting charting platform you're using, you're new here. Okay, I'm using Sierra chart. I've used it for over 10 years. I've also used lots of other platforms in that tenure span but that's the only one that I have used every year of that last decade and I do like it and I also code in it in C++ plus their library of functions that sits on top of C++ called Axl. I like it because it is in tick data. So if you look at some of the other platforms like Ninja, they're not native to tick data or trading view is just seconds data or minute data and it is very, very fast. It's not very pretty. So some people who prefer aesthetics over function may not like the initial view upon it but it is totally and utterly customizable. Anyway, enough about other platforms. So in Bookmap, I'm here to talk about Bookmap. So I should be talking about Bookmap. The add-ons that I'm using that I do use every single day and I talk about other add-ons from time to time but the two that I use the most and I use them every day are the stops and icebergs, MBO order, MBOs which are noted here by red circles and also by dashed lines, green and pink dashed lines. The green and pink dashed vertical lines are icebergs and the red circles are stops and that's marked by order data. And the other one is the TraderMap Pro which is showing a filtered heat map. I've got it for both ES and NQs if I quickly flick across the ES. This is a filtered heat map. I think I only, I think I was, I wasn't actually around early this morning so I didn't actually restart this one until just after the Japan Open but this is a filtered heat map of ES's action and I can comment on it in hindsight which is not overly helpful. So I do find that when we are looking at a lot of these webinars and they're just screenshots that that's hindsight, it's much more interesting. I hope for people if I talk about what may happen based on current price action by the second rather than things that have happened but nevertheless, so this is filtered, this is the one on the right. It is filtered to only show orders that have not changed by price or by quantity, in other words, static orders. It is irrespective of the size of the orders and what is showing us in hindsight was that they were attracting price and the real resting order was this one here which was around about 4717. That stayed in place for hours and by hours I'm talking about from before the Japan Open until it got tagged after, well an hour after the London Open or probably an hour after the London Open exactly. So that is a very good example of resting liquidity or significant resting liquidity and we can always zoom in to find out how much of that was resting. So if we get back into 4717 and we have a look at it, about 229, I'm not sure whether it was static completely or not, yeah, it was over 200 throughout the time that that was resting and it is a very, very good example of resting liquidity acting as a magnet. It did not act as very good support on this instance or this example, so it bounced off initially a little bit. So yeah, I'm sorry, there was a trade actually often or very, very close to after the second and third touches price went through and then went down to new liquidity that they provided below and we bounced off this double or triple bit of liquidity so far coming up into the news. So that is the filtered heat map, exactly the same settings on NQ. So this is the NQ filtered heat map on the left and the tab next to it is the unfilled, sorry, is the normal heat map. This is the bog standard heat map without the Trader Map Pro add on and it has these awful algo bands which is in order of about 58, 60 contracts which follows price above and below and kind of makes the book, the book map heat map a little bit harder to read unless you do this, which is zoom right in to the last couple of minutes in which case the heat map gets a little bit better but I find this is again from a personal perspective when I am trading NQ and ETH and I do trade NQ and ETH and I am one of those people that eat what he says. I have it slightly zoomed out so that I can see that resting liquidity and see how long it has been resting and whether when I'm live testing this backwards it had any value to me, right? So for example, we've got this resting liquidity up here at 16.4.20 and we can see that it came in right about, I must have zoomed that, it came in only a few minutes ago so that doesn't really count as resting liquidity I'll take that comment back but you can see when it initially came in which was over here much, much earlier in the session at the Japan Open and then it went away and they've reintroduced it so you can see that. So I posted some screenshots earlier so that is a little bit more zoomed in. There's one in the Discord channel today of a trade that is typical of the ones that I trade. I've got to now go back. It can be a little bit painful, rewinding and getting the heat map to do this. So I'm trying to get this trade. In fact, there's lots and lots of examples of this. I think this is the one, let me just draw this out. What time have we got? We've got five minutes left all. This is a typical view of using the heat map in Asia and Europe. So it's zoomed in and I'll just work out what the actual zoom in in terms of the horizontal time axis is. It's about 15, about just over now, maybe 75 minutes, that kind of range. And in terms of vertical range, we've got bearing in mind that price has been extremely volatile today. And we've got about 80 points of vertical range. And if you zoom in too much, you kind of lose the message. One thing that I do harp on about is having a mouse set up so that you can quickly zoom in and out both horizontally and vertically. So you can see more clearly where this resting liquidity is providing some use. So you can see this liquidity comes in here. I'll ignore when it came in and it stayed in place, right? Price went away. At this point, it's beginning to act as the magnet, right? And the trades that become available, and I did post one in, let me just draw this one with a line. So you've got a little swing eye. It's a little bit more obvious when you have something like a 30 second or a one minute chart. And that is effectively a double top. And that was a clear swing eye because it's a swing eye all the way, all the way back to about there. Let me get rid of the last one and go back to the pen. So here you've got one, two, and three. There's a screenshot that I've done in Discord. So that's the idea in terms of setting up for yourself and doing it live. So it is essentially a supply type trade. So price comes back supply, which is actually a double top or a one tick above the previous one, which is one. And you've got this, which is clear resting liquidity acting as a magnet. And the idea is to get your target as close to that, if not within the resting liquidity at all. So you basically want to get all of that. You can scale in, you can not scale in, sorry, you can scale out or you can not scale out, depending on the way you've set up your trading plan. But the idea is to collect as much of that, right? And to see whether, when you work out how far that is, whether you've got to stop less than the height of that. Maybe your stop is just there behind this little bit of liquidity that came in that was visible then. Okay, tie at 26 and a half. So we've got three minutes left. So that is the idea. Double top or supply test bang straight down. And there were lots of those, I think, on this down trending session today. Right, let's get rid of all that. Okay, and let us go back to now. So you'll see this quite often that they put in this resting liquidity. This, remember nothing is 100%. This is not even 80%. I'd say it's somewhere between about 60 and 80. They'll have a resting liquidity. There'll be some strong rejection away. And then you might get a set up along the way. Maybe you got the set up here with this double bottom here. And then you trade it towards that. And you can see it's just tagging it now. And it's really what size is the size of your target here? It's tiddly. It's only about four or five points. So that's a very, very bad example, but hopefully people get the gist of what I am talking about. Okay, we are going to join our friends in a minute at Financial Juice. In fact, I'll turn it on now, just if they're talking too much, I will mute them. But the idea is that we are ready as well and I will get the, we'll focus on ES because sometimes the movement in NQ is too violent at these NFP releases. And it's a little bit less violent in ES. And also the resting liquidity here, it's a little bit clearer if we're, then the NQ, this isn't really resting liquidity. It's just come in quite recently. It's more scalping type resting liquidity. But this resting liquidity has been here for a long time. So we're talking about the stuff towards the 4.700 level, about 4.708 here. So you've got resting liquidity. So it'll be interesting to see if we do go down, but we always keep an open mind. Price can go, you know, zooming upwards just as much as it can go down towards this resting liquidity. Anybody that was too bearish into the RTH open yesterday, that's who they were targeting. They were trying to get those people's money. And you look to the morning session and they teased them. They got right back down to the previous days low and then they drove it on a trend higher. And you've always got to watch that. Okay, I do have my financial dues streaming. I'm just going to turn the upper bits up. I've got it there. I think the people on YouTube should have been able to hear Tony speak just then from financial juice. And we need to get our drawing tool right. So let's get a horizontal line. And what we can do is mark the scene of the crime. This is on the assumption that there'll be volatility, i.e. a real crime. And we'll mark the level right at 830 and the time is now at 29 and a half. So I might just do it now. It's not going to be 100% accurate because price is going to move before then. And in NQ, it's really hard because price moves around all the time. Four seconds. Okay, and you can see the violence in NQ. 3.7%. So you can see, and yes, where that scene of the crime was I'll just turn off the stream from financial juice. So you get the violent move. You got that retrace back. If you were there with your fingers poised at the sell button for that retrace and you were expecting a retrace back towards the scene of the crime, that would have been a lovely trade with that resting liquidity down below. I mean, that was the most probable outcome looking at the TPO and the daily and the three minute chart that we looked at earlier. But you can never take anything as a guaranteed. So we've had a nice action into the 4705 region. I might pull up the, I'm just pulling this up over here so we can remind ourselves of where we are. The TPO is updating life and you can see that. And we can zoom in as well and just drag it around. So we've got right to this previously heavily traded area. So that whole zone there is what I call a high volume node type zone. I wouldn't be saying it's one specific level but just this region. And you've got this naked point of control down there which is coming up. And I've got it marked via cloud notes. So you can see it's just under the 4700 handle and you can see some nice resting liquidity just there. So we're getting down towards it but bear in mind the delta column. So you don't want to join where there's a huge vertical strip of red delta because then you will become the fuel for a good pullback up or you may become the fuel for a good pullback up. It's too zoomed. So you can see on this pullback up here we've got where did it turn around? Where that green delta was a nice chunky green delta. So that's the kind of thing you're looking for on a pullback preferable to actually have a really, really good zone or location that you want to see that pullback to. But in terms of fuel, that's the kind of fuel you want to see. So nothing we have seen since that economic release has been overly bullish and we are well south of the scene of the crime. So the scene of the crime is not gonna be 100% accurate. You saw me draw it before 830 but it's in that sort of zone before 718 zone and we have already gone down 15 points. So I'm hoping some people are trading. I am not trading because I'm talking but my inclination would have been too short and I'm hoping somebody caught some of that 15 point move down. I'm just gonna zoom out horizontally so we can remind ourselves again. We take all these levels at round numbers with a huge grain of salt but what I'm looking at here as well is the size of the orders. I'm also looking to see where the huge, huge orders are. I'm looking at individual order just under 4698 of 150 contracts. It's one suggestion I've made to the book map team in the past to give us the ability to segment this order book column to show to be able to select individual large orders and set the size. So for example, if I know there's an order of 150 contracts at about, where was it? Let's just have a look. 9750, so it's just really 469750. It's part of this 206. It would be nice to show that. I know we can see in some of the other platforms and I think most of the people here have a charting platform in addition to book map. So yeah, they're aware that you could probably see that thing. I know you can in Motiveware and I know you can in Sierra. I'm guessing you can. I think Investor RT also introduced that from memory but I'm not exactly sure. So we're now bounced off some heavy liquidity this entire zone. So if we zoom out, and sometimes what I said previously, you have to zoom in and out to get a better, clearer picture of liquidity blocks like this. So you get a touch or almost touch and it bounces. So almost approach, then you had a spring of that and it bounced. You could say that's the second touch or the first touch and that's often the case that the first and second touches, they will not go through that resting liquidity. It's the third, fourth or fifth touches that they do when it is really, really thick and this is thick because you can see that it's over five or six points between 4701 and 4695 and bearing in mind that that 150 order down there might be one of their targets or maybe the people that placed that order there. Remember, we can only speculate. Maybe they are part of the crew that sold way, way up higher and this is one of their profit targets. It's always worth thinking through why some of these people might have these large orders around here and equating it to other things or other confluences. Tom has always made a good point that you can see everything through the profile anyway. So regardless of whether you're heavily into options, gamma, open interest, that kind of stuff or there's some other form of analysis that you specialize in, it's going to be visible in the actual auction itself because the auction is a result of all of that. So if they're gonna come back and tag a clear gamma level, it's gonna be pre-visible in the auction anyway. So we are getting very close to a round number. What I do say is one, I've said this a few weeks ago, is that these round numbers get very, very attractive. I know we've got some big fat liquidity there and we zoom right in, it's 327 at the moment in the order book, but the round number itself, the closer they get to it, the more attractive it becomes. So this is a little bit like that double triple bottom that yesterday's low we were talking about on Wednesday, except this is probably more so. There is now a very, very high probability that we are going to hit that 4.7. It doesn't have to be within this breakfast hour, it can be in the RTH, as I said the other day, but the probability is that we will get there. With a large block like this, especially if it wasn't a really bearish day, it's often an opportunity for them to trap lots of sellers. So if we do go all the way down here and it's a red Delta tail all the way down there, that could give us a really, really good pullback if they use the late sellers as fuel for a good pullback. So that is worth bearing in mind as well. There's no harm in thinking about longs and shorts. I mean, you see with some of these traders that do provide hypotheses, A, B's and C's or one, two's and three's for the ratings ahead, that they'll ordinarily look at both long and short type hypotheses or scenarios. So we've now had, let's get into this a little bit more clearly. So we've had one, two, so we're effectively at a triple bottom. You know, yep, that is a triple bottom in ES. And we're going to bounce a little bit at the moment. And at the moment, at 702, there's only 38 contracts traded, which is quite low. So maybe we will get a nice little bounce here if there are only 38 contracts traded there. Okay, so we've got two factors of affecting our probability of suggesting that we're going to hit the four seven. You've got a triple bottom and you've got a huge round number and the hundreds are the biggest round numbers that we look at. And then when you zoom in, what you really want to see is a lovely green tail when they've got enough fuel to do that last little smash through. And we're looking over here at NQ. You can see they're developing a really good green tail. I haven't done my new analysis on working out where a good zone is for this pullback. I haven't even really looked at my one minute chart for example. And we did look at the fact that yesterday's low is way, way higher in NQ. You've got yesterday's low up there and you've got last month's high which is a significant high up at the 16, 420 mark. Okay, just doing another time check. Ah, there's another question from Tom. By price going through after fourth or fifth touch do you mean through by transacting or by pulling around? I'm talking about actually going through. So I'm saying that at the moment this resting liquidity in ES is providing good support so it's rejecting. But the fact that we've had three touches and the fact that we've got a big round number and we've got some resting liquidity which has been there all ETH session it's likely that we will get down through the 4, 700. And once we get through that then it's always likely that we'll go a little bit further. So maybe we'll get all the way through it or close to it. But if they chop and chop and chop around imagine this on a one minute or a three minute chart let's draw it again. What it might look like is that you come down and then you do this. One thing that we've or I've said is that that's a pause in this motion. And the biggest probability then is the continuation that they're effectively just pausing because they're slightly exhausted and they're gathering more fuel to continue. So that is the higher probability. It does not mean that it can't do that because it certainly can. And something else I wrote in the Discord the other day which is when you get absolutely certain about anything in trading. For example, if I was absolutely certain that was gonna go down that's when I'm at the most risk of losing a large amount of money because if I had a stop here for example because I'm so certain I might not honor that stop so I might waive that stop and then let price keep going up and up and up and it might go up 50 points or 100 points and then I might lose my entire account. That is what can happen freely, frequently. And it does happen a lot on these prop type challenges where it's a low initial investment or low in terms of compared to how much money you might need in your own trading capital account. Sometimes it says low is about $20 to participate. So we will look at the spreadsheets of that in a second in fact, what time is it now? 8.42, just to get back, let's get rid of all of that. So it shouldn't be a surprise that they bounced off that. And if you look as well at, if you look historically at some of these big, big news releases at 8.30 you'll see that they often come back, there might be that initial test of the scene of the crime which was round about there before this vertical plunge down. There is often another retest of this zone. So if we did go all the way back up towards 4718, again that should not be an overly, and it shouldn't be an overly big surprise to anyone because that is quite common as well. You can see that they're pushing people up a little bit with liquidity along the way. They're trying to get them up there back to a good level maybe so they can get a nice short down but you have to keep watching the tail and checking the zone. This zone here would be an interesting one because that would be a retest of the scene of the crime. I'm not gonna hide this heat map. So I am gonna delve into a topic that I mentioned at the beginning of this but we can keep watching what's happening here and we've got settlement as well. So not only could it get back to the scene of the crime, maybe there'll be a drive to settlement at the RTH open. Don't close your mind off to what is possible in the markets because anything is possible. But that being said, I did want to talk about prop challenges so I'm just gonna start writing and then I'm gonna go into spreadsheet prop challenges. Okay, one of the most popular is 50K challenge, right? The target is usually, this applies to lots of different firms, you know, it's Elite, Apex, Top Step, Bull and X, you use, you trade or whatever, you profit. Okay, that essentially, let me say, commissions are very similar amongst them. I'm making that last statement because I've modeled it based on the Apex commissions but you could apply this equally to anything else. Okay, right, so what have we been doing in these ETH breakfast hour webinars? I mean, we've been reviewing live order flow action and we've also been looking at the typical types of action that occur both in terms of price action, heat map, auction theory, et cetera. In the ETH session, the extended session between the Japan Open and the RTH Open and that covers a multitude of sub-sessions. Okay, let's move on to the spreadsheet, right? So I built a little spreadsheet, I did this today, I did this specifically for this webinar because I think it's something that interests people. All right, so I just did the preface there so I said we've got a $50,000 challenge where they give you 50,000 capital and you're trying to hit 3,000, right? And I've suggested, we're looking at the ETH map but I've suggested when we've been looking at the NQ one, this spreadsheet's modeled on NQ, we just done one trade where it was, let me do it again. So the trade we had was we had a swing high, it came back there, so you had one, you had two and then you had this resting liquidity here, right? And the trade was at two down to there, right? I've also done another example of a similar trade like that but a little bit different so let me just do that one as well. So you have a swing high and maybe I can actually do it right here as well because we've got some liquidity there. So you've got a swing high and then you get a little move above it and you've got a heavy area of liquidity there and again, you take that trade there and you use this one not as a magnet this time but as support resistance and you're trading down, right? And we're getting towards that retest, we haven't really got to a really good retest yet so we're about four points away from a good retest of the ES. So two variations of the supply and demand spring up thrust, breakout failure, whatever you want to call it, that type of supply and demand type trade, one where resting liquidity assists you by being a magnet, one where it assists you by being support resistance, okay? So that kind of thing in NQ happens all the time, right? So this is modeled on essentially taking that trade or very similar trades where you've got something which you believe according to your manual back testing because a lot of this in book map has to be done in a manual way where you have to carefully check all the rules that you have for that type of setup and then practice it. So you've got to look back and develop the rules by going back through these maps day after day or watching it live as well day after day and then you develop all the criteria for your setup. What time is it? 8.48, 12 minutes, okay. So, all right, okay, what have I done here? I have suggested, and there's only a suggestion, it's not a recommendation, one method of using that type of trade as the basis of passing one of these challenges, right? And in the ETH. So this is ETH and this is NASDAQ specific and what do I mean by that? So the first thing, all these yellow columns are things that you can change manually. So that's why I've shaded them in this yellow, purple is because that is basically one dollar two it is the apex round-turned commission for a micro and we're doing it with micros because we're trying to control our risk for this purpose, okay? Because we have got a tight risk of 32 ticks on and I'm averaging that out, so that for the purposes of this spreadsheet and this model, our average risk in ticks is 32 ticks. So those two things, commission and currency per tick are fixed, basically a micro NASDAQ is 50 cents per tick, okay? Challenge target, which I think I apologize, I mistyped that one, is 3000, the drawdown is 2,500, okay? Right, okay, what have I done here? I've said to keep it incredibly simple and I was a little bit missing off this one. I just have to condense it a bit so that we can see the whole thing. I have to condense it a little bit more so just bear with me, okay, now we can see it all, okay? All right, okay, so here we've got an average stop of 32 ticks which is eight points in NASDAQ and essentially if you go back through that type of supply and demand setup, I would say that you can find many, many, many examples every single day or over the course of a week, many, many, many examples of where you should have been able to get a stop of 32 ticks, right? I'm saying to keep it this completely simple and we've got some nice liquidity in ES that has just been hit on the way to, so they've actually trapped some sellers there, gone through some liquidity and that target of the scene of the crime is getting closer and closer but these people are trapped so maybe we'll even get through it and we'll have to see. So you back test to find out that that concept of an average 32 risk stop is viable. Why have we set a target of 37? Well, we're looking for a high probability target. On the example where we were going short, we had a high probability target which was the resting liquidity or within a couple of ticks that resting liquidity. Basically, you've got to go through your examples. Why does it have to be more than 32 ticks? Simple common sense or simple mathematical sense and this whole spreadsheet is trying to illustrate to you all this is just a mathematical game of chance of probability and nothing more. It has to be more, on this occasion, it's 1.16 times 32. This is so that over here that our outcome exceeds our risk. So when we lose and we're keeping it really simple every single time our stop is at 32 ticks, we lose $306. That's why it's minus 306 and every time we win, this is on average for the winners, 37 ticks. It's not gonna be 37 ticks each time because that's not how trading works, especially with slippage, et cetera. But on average, 315. So that 315 is bigger than 306. The thing that is worth, sorry, it's two things with micros, you can take an average of 18 trades and you can customize or you can customize the risk or control it in such a precise way that you can model it accurately. If this was a big NASDAQ, it would not be as easy to do and this would be a lot more approximate. This number we can change, but I've started off with an example of 58%. So above 50% because that setup does have a good probability you have to test it for yourself with your own eyes to see what kind of probability you believe it to be and you can't take anything that I say as verbatim or everything I say has to be questioned by you. And by the way, ES is doing a really good job of getting that scene of the crime. Effectively, we got this. We're right in that retest zone. So if we zoom back to the 830, you can see this breakdown here. So we're at that supply zone. So this is the area that you'd be looking at. And now we're watching to see what kind of action that they get. So we can see a couple of icebergs in the NBN stops. They're only tiddly so far. So there's nothing, they haven't accumulated many sellers but we're right in the right zone should we go down and we don't have to go down. But we'll just model this again with some different probabilities in a second. But let's just start with 58%, just as a rough number. I believe that the probability that that setup is actually higher than there are some other setups that I've demonstrated. By the way, I know I'm talking about two different things at the same time. We've got a perfect retest of that scene of the crime. So now it becomes interesting. I haven't seen any action yet to turn it around. And we've got some resting liquidity that's being attracted at 4720. And remember, you've got some other things here. You've got yesterday's low. So you could have a nice little tag of yesterday's low which is often a place for a retest or a pullback towards. And you've got settlement, the drive up there and you've got this big resting liquidity right at settlement. Okay, so back on this spreadsheet and we're through that scene of the crime. What is this showing us? With the 58% probability and that target of $3,000 and a drawdown of 2,500, the first thing to say is that you would have to have from the get go, eight successive losers of minus 306 to break that account. To reach that minus 2,500. Obviously, after you've started trade, it's going to vary a little bit. And the average number of trades to get to this 3,000, which we're going to model in a second, is going to vary as well, depending on different things happening because you're spinning a roulette wheel multiple, multiple times and things will happen in a different way each time you roll that roulette wheel and that is just life. Okay, right. But this is showing that the average number of trades, this is this blue cone here, to get to your 3,001 target. So you've just got to hit it. You can in fact, the target is actually less than 3,000 itself, but it's 55 or 56 trades average to get there with that one type of setup with a simple, basically, slightly above one R approach. Hopefully, if you're interested in this, you can always go back to the YouTube recording and look at this spreadsheet. It's all very, very basic stuff. Now we're going to model it so that we're going to change this win rate. So say, for example, your win rate was under 50. I'm just now going to show you we're going to validate this by saying that how many trades does it take to get there? In other words, it's impossible because you're going to lose. So if we run our macro, which is a simple goal-seeking macro to work out how many trades it would take to get to the 3,000, and we just run our little macro, to get there, it is impossible. Whenever this is a negative number of trades, that means that it is not possible and you will not get there. Right now, if we change this to something like 65%, and we do our little macro again, we can get there in an average of 30 trades. So what this is saying to you, if that turned out to be a really, really good probability, if you were risking that $300 each time, it is not that hard to get there if you stick to the discipline of no scaling in, no scaling out, no averaging down on losses or whatever to get there. And if you're going for something ridiculous, and I'm going to call 75% ridiculous here because I don't think people should aim for things like that. They should be a little bit more realistic and conservative and expect that you're not going to perform at that level, even if the setup has a 75% probability, but I'll just show you what would have happened. Okay, you can do it in an average number of 20 trades. Right, and that's just an example of using a very, very basic spreadsheet and taking the approach of mathematics and more importantly, probability to tackle those challenges rather than focusing too heavily on how you might, or the detailed analysis that we go through on every single entry trigger or whatever it is that I might be talking about, and then you're managing the trade and scaling them out with one scale, two scale, five scales, whatever. If you decided for the purposes of one of these challenges to keep it ultra, ultra simple and just do that, that's how simple this whole game gets. I know if we cut this back to say like 53%, this is the last one I'll run, I promise. And we run the macro one last time and this is going to go up to quite a big number, 131 trades. All that is showing you is this is a game of maths. That's all this is and that is more important than a lot of the overthinking that we might get involved in on is this trade really going to work? Is it not going to work? Oh, I'm not going to get any money. Let me flatten this now. The whole basis of this mathematical approach is that you let it either hit its target or hit its stop and you do not interfere in any way and then you let the mathematics work and that applies to a lot of trading, not just these challenges. And that was, you know, that's why I thought, you know, since it's an area or a topic of interest, why not just do a little spreadsheet and show people? Okay, meanwhile, we are back to talking about trading and we are back to doing some live order flow analysis. So what did we miss? So we missed in NQ this nice little liquidity that they highlight. You can see it's darker and redder and thicker than anything else and they brought price back up to it or it attracted price. And we have got right to that scene of the crime. So if we zoom right in there and we drag it back, you can see that scene of the crime. You can see why do we draw this scene of the crime? Because you often do get a test right back to that zone and, you know, if for some crazy example, you'd had a limit sell order there at 16404-ish or 16404-50 or 475, you would have got 12 points in NQ pretty much straight up about one little retest, you know, may have shaken your nerves a bit, but you'd have got 12 points and that could have counted towards that kind of little mathematical challenge that we did as well. So that's the reason why we have that scene of the crime because that does attract price both during this hour after the news is released and also during the RTH session following the major, major news release. Time check, oh, we're right at nine o'clock. I will very quickly just have a look, Tom. Tom, I'd have to, I've gone past my time, but I'd have to refer you to just about lots and lots of my webinars on that Delta tail. The reason why I have it there is really when I'm stalking to see when people are overextended. So at lows when sellers may be overextended with a long, long red tail and the same symmetrical approach to buyers being overextended at a high point by having a long, extended green tail in a nutshell, that is it. Anyway, I think I'm done. I'm out of my hour, so thank you very, very much for coming. I hope the information was of interest to, or of entertainment value anyway to people and thank you.