 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, folks. Basil Chapman on this Friday, September the 8th. Yep, the 8th. And we're looking at the Dow. This is going to be very interesting because the buying pressure that just suddenly came almost like a relief is holding up as a second phase into this 10-20, perhaps 10-20 period coming up for the market session. Let's see. We've got the Dow at 56,000 and 34,056. That pink 9-beard moving average is still negative, the sarcastic is weak at 49%. The 9-beard did deflect lower to pink so far, that suggests that there isn't any impetus yet for a big move to the upside because the S&P, that's a little bit better because the chart earlier on broke out of the Chapman falling, this is a technical Friday. So before I have some tea here, what we're looking at is the 9-beard moving average is very close to turning down, but it hasn't yet. That says there's residual strength. Because this is a Friday, now I can start looking at weekly charts. So the weekly chart, since the high of 4507.07 back on the 27th of July and the S&P, saw the price fall under the 14-beard moving average actually close below it, then bounce for the last three weeks above it. That 9-beard moving average, I need to show this because it's technical Friday. This is the meta, I was showing all the different charts yesterday. So let's just look at this. Here's the Dow, INDU, and this is a daily chart. You can see, excuse me, the 9-beard moving average under the 14. Now let's just go to the weekly chart. I have to always move this away. Anyway, the 9-beard is over the 14, I really wanted to show you the S&P. The S&P has made a lower high, hasn't yet made a lower low, but that 9-beard moving average is steadfastly strong. I can't even give you a sell signal. Remember, sell mode in the daily charts of all the indices, including the estimation of semiconductors, but wait a minute. Look at this, still green. It means either the price of the S&P has plunged to about right here, somewhere around here. No, it's a 43-10 area. That's 150 points for this to turn pink. So at this particular point, I'm still seeing residual strength in the weekly chart. Look at the QQQ, same thing. Even stronger. Look, both the 9- and 14-beard moving average haven't changed direction. They still, the trajectory is up and very wide. Look at the IWM, weekly. This is so close to turning down, but it hasn't, and you can't anticipate in this business. You have to wait. It's a weekly chart. You have to wait for this Friday, then the next Friday, because it's a weekly chart to see whether or not the Russell 2000 small caps get. But look at the SMHs, SMHs, with all the negativity that's going on. Let me just see where Nvidia is right now. Look at this. Nvidia is down just over $400 and 451. Is that a 61? It's 61. And look, the price hasn't even gone, touched the green 9-beard moving average and the trajectory is still up. So within that context, just let me give you my overview for what I have done for subscribers to my opening call, news that we are short to down from the August 1st high. Not very aggressively short, because I see a rotational correction here, and those weekly charts are still so strong, I don't want to get in the way of them. But look at the, look at the way the weekly chart of the SMHs have it so far, that SMHs held. Look at the XLK, that is the S&P Select Spider Tech ETF, or Spider, still holding very well, and you can go on. So as I'm looking at this, look at gold, this is a weekly chart. Gold has had, the price has deflected, it's still pink, it's still negative even though gold is up $9 today, because the daily chart of gold, let's do this right here, technical Friday, remember, technical Friday says it went S in the daily chart for a day or so, and you can see that it's very close to seeing the price try to balance up, but it's still pink. So and look at the dollar, DXY, dollar's pulling back a little bit today, down 16 ticks, look how strong it is. This whole area right here, that's this area with a high of $104.30, let's call it the $104, that's kind of good support right now, when that gets taken out, you still have to see the dollar go all the way to $103.50 before you can see that green even start to close in on the black 14-beard moving average. Technical Friday, I'm trying to show you that I like to go one step at a time, and so far, it is the daily charts that have given me cell signal to cell mode upgrades, but within that context, they're not really breaking down yet, I'll go to the daily chart, you can see it here, where you see all three monthly chart, we've got a very gentle two months pullback since the high that was made right then July of three getting harder to see her, this is because it's overlapping that I call 370, well, 387.90 or 98. That was the high just three months ago, and we haven't broken down, we haven't broken out, and it hasn't had the strength just to just kind of pierce it by even one penny. And that's a big deal. Now what I need to do is technical Friday, there's a pattern that I talk about all the time for years and years and years, let me just get back here. This is my opening call newsletter, and I'll just show you the patterns that I like to always use, okay, coming up right now. So you see the way I'm joining these lines right here, a little declining trend line right there, and it's very hard to pinpoint, very hard to pinpoint the exact, with this pointer right here, and there you are. So I call this Chapman Wave Falling Axe Formation. You can get little mini ones, and they become really powerful when it lasts a little bit longer. The pattern that I'm talking about right here is this. Oops, it's this. Click right here. So it's called the Chapman Wave Falling Axe Formation. I drew it in over here. Then what I like to do is say, okay, it broke out. You could keep it there, but that's a little bit messy. Why don't we raise that to say, hey, good action so far, this is a QQQ in the daily chart, good rally from 387 high back in July to the 354ish low that was made, let me give you the exact number, 35471 low on the 18th of August, and let me just 35471, 354, 354.71, there you go. So this is nice. It's acting quite well. Still a cell mode in the daily chart. Nothing yet in the weekly. So this Chapman Wave Falling Axe Formation says, every once in a while you get a pattern where you make low highs and much lower lows, then the schools makes a confirmation, takes out that resistance you can go one to one to the upside. I'll be back in a moment, 2016, 2017. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman and your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Oh, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi, folks. So I just wanted to show you this. This is the 10-minute e-mini S&P. Nice cup formation here. It did a left-side, right-side, to this particular candle right here, time and price match. I said in the den earlier on the 45-59 level was at peak D. We were over there just making that. And I said, that 44-59 is a magnet. And we pulled back away from it. It's both a magnet, but the technicals were still holding beautifully with the 9 over the 14. And still strong right now as we look at the e-mini up 16. I had to do this very quickly and then I just left to learn. I drawn in in case there was a bad news report that this could have become an arch formation and that would have been the Chapman Wave inside wedge support line. Didn't even get there. Now what it's done is done a one-to-one to the upside. This is almost like the folding axe formation that I was just showing you where it took it out and went to the upside one-to-one. Now it's kind of stalling here a little bit and you can see the Chapman Wave that automated resistance to support levels. Look at that beautiful 44-59 low that held right there just before 10 o'clock. And then 44-70 was the first resistance. It just took it out and went under it, came back and 44-73 to 44-74 is the next resistance level. But the weekly, the fire, I always talk about this as a weekly in data. This is a one-minute chart with technical, the automated Chapman Wave resistance support levels. Five-minute chart. The five-minute chart has been green since it broke to the upside at 8.10 this morning. It's still green and it's green right now even though it's stalling and the 10-minute chart, the same thing. So I'm just showing you that the, I like to look at the time frames. So the data says a little bit of a rectangle formation forming here, just a stalling formation. If it breaks out sharply into the 44-75 area, it's going to be really good. But right now it's just kind of stuck for the moment, having a little bit of a breather after two big moves up. The five-minute you're saying, wait a minute, what are you talking about? It's barely stalling. This is just the third bar. Anything can happen in this third bar. Remember my rule of 136, one break to the upside that has just one bar S and then moves on, it's a really positive. If it becomes three bars, that's also very good. But when it gets to about five or six bars, you actually have to restart to get that move up and there it is breaking out. So I can call this a G slash C, but in fact my eye says, huh, all the technicals are strong, so why not call it a C? Because I like to show that there are times where you're really just continuing the previous rally. So just to be safe, you say, hey, you could stall here, but this is such a nice relief day because if the day was very negative, whoa, Monday could have been very ugly. Oh, the day's young. Anything can happen. But I think this is just telling us that that daily cell mode that we were talking about is influenced by the larger tide. Remember I showed you that when we look at tides the other day, I discuss this whole thing on tides, that you've got to be aware that the larger tide, if you throw a stick, say a branch into the water, a stick or something, if the tide is going out, no matter what you do, that branch is not coming back to the shore. It's just going to keep being pushed out. If the tide is coming in, no matter what you do, it's just not going to go out. It's going to constantly be, that's the tide that you got. You can have ripped tides. You can have little tides. You can have low tides or whatever it is. The tide tells you the larger trend. Within that you can get little nuances. So in this particular instance, so far the 10 minutes, which let's call it a daily, weekly, monthly, this is the longer term trend, and so far it's up, and the daily trend is making pop rest. Pop rest. Another little pop less than before. So now we have to see what happens next. So within that context, a couple of things that I want to look at. Did I finish what I was doing? Now let me just do this. I believe I didn't finish. I'm going to do that right now, because we were looking at the 914s. So the QQQ is up 255, up 0.69%. The SMB is up 0.43%. The Dow is up 0.24%. I love the way the rotations are going. Now let's go backwards here. So a question came in. We had Garo from California calling the other day about square block. Square is what I like to call a square, but they changed the name to block. And we were looking at it and I said, you know, Garo, I know that you use the parabolic SAR, but I like to look at chart formations. And this particular chart, you're looking at chart formations. Well, look at this. This particular chart here says that you can go, yeah, three basic rules as far as I'm concerned. Straight line up, straight line down, cup formation where it goes from one level down, then back again. It could be a V, but it's basically going from one level down and then back. How does it retest that upper level when it comes back? Or the arch formation or inverted V where it goes from one level up and then down. When it comes straight down, rallies the price and it goes to just a peak A or a B, watch out, because if it takes out this left side low, that could be a very deep decline. But this, if it holds the left side low, it can have another arch formation. Then it's like a rectangle within it. The ball is just bouncing from the upper level to the lower level. And every time you think it's going to break out to the upside, it just reverses and comes down. Every time you think it's going to break to the downside. But in the H to lowercase M formation, on that second round, when it comes down, if it takes out that left side low, it can go deeply lower. That's the lowercase H to lowercase M. Lowercase H to lowercase M. So we were looking at this and saying, well, it doesn't, it looks like it's going to fail. It's stuck in the rectangle formation. And he called yesterday, he said, oh great, he got out of it, he was short, he was long, then he went short. And he took his profits. I don't know if all the profits, but look what happened today. It's down, it hit 5303. And remember, if the 52s is the level, I said it better hold the 52s because any time it plunges, that will give you almost a one to one to the downside based on this particular methodology. So it's down to right now at 5402. So that's the pattern. I was going to talk about it in another stock. I even wrote it down here. I think this is the one, AN. This is, yeah, this is AN is the alternation, order sales, peak F, so far I'm calling it an F in the monthly chart, peak D, look there's a little arch formation or drainage formation in the weekly chart. And now you've got your same thing, lowercase H goes to a lowercase M and it can repeat. When it takes out, usually when it lasts this long, it has to find support because if it doesn't find support, it's used up all its upside energy when it takes out, in this particular case, 149 and 19 cents, the lower the 24th of July, be careful because this could go even deeper down. So it's stuck in the range. So that was the lowercase H that continually makes an H. This could even be another one and another one and another one. Now it's made lower lows and all the lows except for the key one which is that 149 level gotta watch this very closely. Next question I had was, yeah, so Jacob earlier on when he was doing Tommy's show, he just discusses so many things in really good detail. I really like it. I'm doing a lot of good fundamental work in terms of just giving you perspective, perspectives on different things. But he did talk about credit cards. I wanted to show you something here. Look at this. This is V. Visa. Fabulous. Almost at all-time highs. This is Mastercard. Fabulous. Almost at all-time highs. This is American Express. Almost at lower lows and lower lows and lower lows. I'll be right back. That was up 99. 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I know someone whose daughter-in-law works for Square in Europe and from what I understood, she's a little mystified at the way she's acting because I guess she's involved in sales, etc. So all I can say is that from the chart pattern I'm looking at here, these intense failures are telling me, so we're talking about block ink, this formerly Square ink point of sale software managing receipts, but they're also now involved in blockchain. So there's this kind of coin-based situation that is involved but I have to tell you that the way it's acting is just not very promising. It looks to me like it went sideways in this rectangle formation. I have a technique that I call the propeller shaft and says from the, if it goes sideways, you can look at the left side to see how high, or if it's on the way down, how high the previous peak was to the base that forms and then go to the top of the rectangle and draw a line down. Now that's kind of aggressive but I have to tell you there are so many times that this particular pattern works we just saw that on the upside in the E-mini so the chart doesn't care what it is and let me just draw it for you right now and I'll show you what I'm talking about. I'll make this blue and then I'm going to make this it has to be a kind of a parallel it must be in the same angle the same number of bars and actually while I'm doing this folks for those of you trading the E-mini I was about to do this but I wanted to take Garo's call I'm just going to flip over right now to the E-mini. Look at the chart we have automated resistance levels look at that cluster up there I always respect that maybe one it could break through but a cluster it makes it really tough and what I said earlier on was that if you follow the green line it's positive if you follow the pink line it's negative now let's go back to square because everything I'm talking about here is applicable so let me show you what I'm talking about and I'll put this in I'm not sure this is okay what this says is that there's a move to 49 but it only works if there's a follow through lousy candle on Monday maybe a bounce on Tuesday or a little bounce on Monday but by Tuesday you've already hit today's lows 5303 you've already hit like 5240 kind of a deep pullback and that's what I'd be looking at but I'm just saying this is a particular technique I call it the propeller shaft where you come down sharply then there's this long rectangle instead of being an oval shaft this is like a rectangle and then there's a move down this has those characteristics so I'm just saying to you it doesn't look good because in this time frame the softwares the stocks that are involved in softwares which block is for instance you can go to a stock like now this is now service now so basically that's also software right now it's going towards its all-time highs it's breaking to the use this particular phase to move to the upside it's done it in a way that says wow I am quite strong there are a number of stocks like this whereas Square is saying I've used this time to go sideways I couldn't even have a rally so I'm just saying to you from the way I'm looking at it unless Square there's some news and it has to be a sustained move Square sometime by mid-September actually hit 60.33 to break above whoops that was me yeah that was my my throat to break above all the trading that was going on for the past three weeks four weeks it's a problem I hope that helps you but I'm just being impure and if you look at the weekly chart the weekly chart took out the left side of April or May well the day is not done but the week looks like it's in a close below there so just and the monthly chart doesn't look good either yes yes yes excellent excellent very good Mr. Basil do we have time for one more I can have or should I get out of the line no no just give me your one more what is it RIG R-I-G RIG yes today I bought it over the 50 day moving average in the 30 minutes I bought 2000 shares do you think that that will go up to 860, 870 or I'm dreaming you're not well you didn't say in what time I'm going to say absolutely but I'm not giving your time so you want time on your side let's just do this let's go to the 120 minute chart I had this all notated the other day then I had to shut down suddenly so I lost the notation so this is a peak A B C D E so it went to the peak E the 200 period moving average is like a magnet it just can't get away from that yeah I'll tell you what I would look at because I'm calling it a magnet it says at age 22 it is right now it keeps wanting to tag that number if it pushes away it has to push away and it really needs to do it quickly because the longer it takes the greater this magnet of the 200 period moving averages in the 120 minute chart and you can see if you're using the SAR you're looking at this pink so that it is still negative I haven't seen it on the 120 minute chart yet on the 10 minute I'm sure you've got it on the 10 minute chart but not the 120 so what I would like to see is and we're right in the cusp of crude oil and the dollar just about to have a bit of a breather how that affects the market is going to be important and rig will be important the way I'm looking at rig it's kind of in a sideways trading band it's had a huge move up the daily chart the weekly chart is in a digestive phase monthly chart is still looking really good so I think you're pushing your luck to think that it's going to go to 860 right away but I absolutely do see 834 and that 834 will needs to be done I would just say to you that I don't know if you hold over the rest of the weekend but if this hasn't gone to 8 today's high is 826 if it can't get to 828 or 830 by 350 this afternoon 10 minutes before the close I'd say you know it might over the weekend we might see oil come down a little bit and then this will probably fall back that's a different story hope that helps you thank you for calling thank you folks we're down to 93 we'll be right back gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange the gold report Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU HUI GDX the dollar, bonds, the South African rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy the gold report new subscribers 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American and TSX under the symbol VGZ I've always been baggage wanted to show you this since the technical Friday so I like to do left side right at price time match that's the bar symmetry and then I usually use the Chapman web inside wedge target resistance or target repellent zone support or repellent zone and we'll see if that works out here but I'm just looking at this and I'm saying you got a peak F top you did that one to one then you extended it even more so now we're looking at the E-mini trying to give back a little bit of what we're doing right here so I would put an X in this would be a target of mine right here 44.66 44.65 area right then that would be at about let's see if that works right about 10.53 so we'll see and you've got an E there's no down arrow yet in the five-minute chart and it's a leg F probably a peak F in the 10-minute chart so we'll be watching this closely so let's just go back a question came in about Nike N-I-K-E N-K-E sorry about that yeah that's the dreaded age that's the pattern we were looking at before and this one did something I've seen this more and more lately it's very unusual but lately it's I just patterns repeating I always say the chart doesn't know whether it is a the rig or it is a master card or whatever or a wheat the chart just does what charts do and he has this dreaded age pattern which says that Nike at 97.58 down 34 cents this the way the nine-period moving average is so weak under the 14 the way the stochastic is rallied it's at 28% but it has this history of going back to the teens and the way the MACD reversed and deflected lower chance that over the next four or five sessions that the low of 96.55 the 21st of August will be tested and maybe even broken so we'll be watching that closely now here's a couple other things that I want to do so I spoke about the credit cards I said how fascinating it is look at American Express they all do something different but basically they credit cards look at this this is look at that sell-off from the high 170s down to 157 right now we're in master card look at that it's about to break out of that chapter we're falling exclamation there we looked at it should go to a leg D above the high it was made in the 30th of August of 4, 17, 73 78 and then what if it's next week it goes to a D also in the daily and the weekly isn't that interesting so the other thing we're looking at here is so what is it discover I think a DS DSF no DSC oh wait discover D discover DS no DSF that's it maybe DSF oh man I'm not getting it so discover I put it down I think is DFS surely discover financial yep there it is look at this going to low lows historically over the last year look it keeps coming back to this 80 89 area they said 89 right now about to break down look at that weekly chart so each things doing differently and that's what I wanted to mention here look you've got Nvidia spectacular stock huge pullback after all that fantastic oh man they couldn't do anything wrong every it's not a big deal it went from 502 to today 457 but it is pulling back and all of a sudden you've got an Intel look at that a nice looking chart went to a leg D very quickly in the monthly chart they in the weekly and a leg C in the daily so I'm just saying to you choose very carefully stay with what you like for instance we got a position yesterday in a stock we've been waiting for for ages finally pulled back and it just started to show enough strength we got it and then all of a sudden I hear people talking about it I just didn't know it was going to be that popular over the last two days now I'm saying to myself I gotta be a little careful there still doing very nicely after our entry point because we got it on the low yesterday just about but even there I think I've got to be careful so the long positions are with hesitancy I haven't added to the short positions yet for subscribers as I said let me just go through this again look the Dow is short from that very high the exact high of 35679 August the first that's the day we went short still short I take a little bit off but mostly short and we've got the SMH's still short from 159 just over 159 161 17 was the all time high so within two points of the all-time high use the SOXS the three times short to take some really nice profits then we got out I should have run this up to that rally that peak C rally which failed pennies away from our first stop in the big balance to the upside we just kept it said stay with it and so far it's at 150.52 that weekly chart is still looking pretty damn good but the magnies down so castings down on balance volumes down the 9 moving average as I show you before it is not yet it is turning down a little bit but there's nothing in the weekly chart to say it changed from your buy mode to a sell signal I haven't got that I have got a sell mode in the daily so everything you've got to do very judiciously look at the DXY dollar pulling back down 32 cents and run a 4.73 look at the crude oil holding quite nicely up 73 at 87.60 high level consolidation will it be able to get to the left side high I don't like putting prices in yet because they get changed because this is a continuous contract but the 93 46 56 high of the week of the 11th of November of last year I'm saying that that is probably a way we've got a chapter we've inside wedge target resistance line that dashed green line it keeps bumping into that and then stalling that's probably a target of the next coming weeks but on a very short term basis we'll have to see what happens now a couple of things that I had a question about I said oh so in the dead who said that A to B to yes I am so upset because if I had this I was looking in the in the whole area of real estate if you go to Home Depot Home Depot is still holding pretty well if you look at toll brothers toll brothers might be down a fraction today but wow it is holding really well if you look at the HGX index holding really well it's had a pullback but still look at the weekly chart if you look at the builders BLDR and this is the company that supplies construction materials just all components that you need builders first source 156 was the all time high back on the 2nd of August and is that correct yeah 2nd of August and look what we're there's the dreaded H failure pattern did it more than a one to one to the downside here's the next balance is this going to be the failure but no the one I forgot about which I've always looked at for years because I've always said first of all I didn't know what they so this is RH formerly restoration hardware look at this dreaded H oh I didn't even notice it today look at that down 41 points and 327 unbelievable that was the short I think some of the others are going to follow in blockstep at some point I'll be back Basil Chapman you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to 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worked out I'm able to do the next hour Steve's show it's not Steve's show but Steve's hour and look at this you remember I drew this art formation I see there's a chaffin wave inside where it targets support line and it pulls it balanced off and look we almost I put the X there we came within a point and a half of that X in time and price so these are techniques that I like to use and now look at the bunch of support levels we've got here for the one-minute chart and look the five-minute chart let's call this the data in the weekly this data the five-minute chart which I'm going to call the weekly like the others nothing the 9p moving average hasn't even moved to hardly down and the black 40 been moving average is still moving up so that's the reason why I like to look at timeframes and timeframes give you a sense of the tide look the short-term tide roof suddenly come down the medium term that's five minutes in this case nothing the tide is still rising even though we've got a beautiful reversal right there with the doji candle the next move up you did pull back but not very much and then the week and the monthly in this case the ten-minute chart nothing to see yet folks is still the tide is rising does it change what you need think of it in timeframes you need a second little speedboat right speedboat can make turns real quick turns in and out and in now but a super tanker the monthly takes a while before you can even notice that it's turning yeah so with that said I'm going to do the next hour there's up 110 sbs of 17 very important got a nice balance here but you're not really seeing it all the way around and I'll talk about that because there's some things that I wanted to show you I got a bunch of charts this next hour as Steve loves to do I will take the press for charts just yell them stream them send them to thousandthrap and see if it goes on I'll pick them up we need to get up