 It's now back-to-back days it's gotten rejected at the top of the channel right back-to-back days Welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to a special edition of the access trader calm nightly update show usually again I don't do updates Thursday nights My daughter had a game yesterday. So I don't rearrange my schedule again if you have young kids or active kids You kind of know that at any moment their life Is much more important than yours. So you have to kind of rearrange your schedule So let's talk about let's kind of review from what happened yesterday Look, we had a really good two-day very organic, right? If we've been watching this this video for the last few days You've seen we had a nice couple of day back tests to the 10 day moving average again Nobody was calling for Armageddon or any of that good stuff. I would have preferred like I said on Tuesday's video I would have preferred one more day down to a 313 level but again, listen it's a bull market and you know Again, we don't get out of we don't get everything what we want out of life We sure as hell don't get everything we want out of trading. So you kind of had to do our best So yesterday CPI came out Um, you know phenomenal move I mean, it's all about a big big 500 point move on the Dow 350 point move on the Nasdaq everything lost its mind yesterday gapped and pretty much Stood at its range for the next four or five hours or so just a big big move again This is what a bull market is You know, it has a big move up and then a retraces a couple of days on light volume Again, you can even see the volume off the last few days before yesterday's yesterday's move and then you kind of resume and You know a lot of people just don't know, you know, just don't have a lot of answers But but that's kind of what a trend is the same way the trend is to the downside Here's the situation you lost the 50 day moving average you go down down down You have a couple of days of up which is the opposite of a couple of days of down on the bull market And then you resume the downward pressure right couple of days up Resume the downward pressure a couple of days up resume the downward pressure so far and so on And that's the same carbon copy just a flip image on the way up again. We would claim 296 75 you know, you have days up you have a few days down more days up a few days down more days up Rest repeats rinse repeat rest repeat rinse repeat. That's exactly what happened today Today was a prototypical inside day of what happened with yesterday's Really really big move matter of fact if you see the volume right if you see that the last Two bars on the bottom chart here You could see that yesterday's volume was a whole lot more than it was today on the on the downside And if you look at the scoreboard, you know, nasaq put up a 350 point move yesterday And the nasaq was down 70 points today So you're talking about a quarter of you know, a quarter of the retracement from yesterday's gains You had again the prototypical rest day action. You had strong moves In the morning following through like for example, Shopify Really nice move today, right yet Shopify come out of a channel here really really strong move You can see on the 60 minute view Is if he's seeing the leverage to turn so Shopify finally took out this 42 60 level Really had a big move almost traded up to 46. It's a really really strong move Same thing with with nvidia. You know, some of these stocks really woke up here You can see you know stocks coming out of the channels here But you also saw a lot of names rested a well-deserved rest and again, you're not going to get You're not going to get every single day worth of upward bias In a bull market and sure selling you're not going to get every single day in a downward bias But the point is to know the overall scheme to know the overall direction of market And again, I've been saying this for a long time if you're a first-time visitor To this this webcast Welcome first of all welcome, you know, we try to like people I'm saying we I try to give A pretty much no bias, you know opinion of what the market is what the market is what the market is right anything Above this light blue line, which is a 50 day moving average Is long term or medium term or short term bullish once we get below Right, that's we get below here and we go lower. So again, you don't need to rationalize you call what you want But it's very very tough to kind of continue to call this a dead cat bounce, you know, very very tough You know, you have two three days. Okay, you have two three days above a 50 day moving average That's not a dead cat bounce anymore. That's just the beginning of a new trend and that's exactly what we are Almost let's see here. Where do we reclaim we reclaimed on July the 18th today is august The 11th see talking about three weeks, right at the end of this week will be nearly A month full of data above the 50 day moving average. That's a trend, right? That's an absolute trend So call it what you want potato potato Um, you know, whatever you want the moral of the story is stocks continue to go higher They continue to digest Bad news and until we close below the 50 day moving average and again, this is where you've learned from the past, right? You learn from uh, what happened just a few months ago, you know, anytime we close below the 50 That's a sell signal you want to be out of your positions and risk is off on the long side You start becoming sell buys with some pretty good Downward channels and the opposite goes from the upside as well. So going into tomorrow. Look, I think If you look at a lot of charts, if you look at a lot of charts today, um, you know, they do look tired Again, and what I mean, they they look tired. They don't mean they're shorts. They just mean they look tired a lot of stocks Had pretty big runs. Um, I think you have to start looking at other places Number one, you know, there are a couple of shorts that I do like and again It's very counter productive to talk about shorts In a bullish environment, but but again if a stock doesn't go up And keeps on getting rejected off the same level, don't we have to start looking on the way down? So for example, let's use a symbol random symbol. Let's just call it. Oh Tesla Right very random So if you guys notice it's it's now back to back days It's gotten rejected at the top of the channel right back to back days. That's not a good thing, right? That's that's not really something you turn around and go. Oh, you know, that's that's phenomenal You know, it's going to go higher. Yeah, you want it to go higher, but it still needs to get above this channel here So I always, you know, I'm always in the believer of whatever doesn't go up Let's go down. It doesn't necessarily need to go down and what I mean down only for a trait the same way we talked about Potential back tests a couple of days ago when Tesla had that nice run to the 10 day moving average You know, look if the market is going to back test at least we have a clear channel, right? At least we have this whole clear channel. Forget about this wick here We have this whole clear channel of data to to work with so if it takes out this bottom channel here Yeah, I mean, no again, nobody's calling for Tesla to go down to 600. I think what elan is doing is phenomenal I don't know this is is um, what's the word I'm looking for there's rumors that he's Still selling stock who the hell knows again the technical analysis is everything So if it starts violating this whole channel here, you know, why can't it start? Going back down to the bottom of the channel here, right just just for a trait, right? Again, nobody's looking for a Bigger a bigger thesis than it actually is again. We trade channels. We trade upside channels downside channels It doesn't make a difference to me Which way as long as there's a measured potential and I see bias in that direction via option order flow and a technical analysis and even a name like coin base for example, right You look at coin and you say these stuff. Okay, you know coin had a really really good run They had that blackstone Catalyst had a really too big day run But but look what today did right today took out one two three four five days worth of buying right So if you look at the 60 minute view if it starts taking down this channel here just for a trade right just for a trade Why can't this thing come in as well, right? You're not going to find a lot of clear channels because the market's been so good So you have to do your research you have to kind of do your diligence to kind of see Well, where where the who the ones that are sticking out, right? Where the stocks that is that is sitting there and saying well, look we didn't go up with this rally in the last three four days Well, let's take the other side of the equation Maybe we finally confirm back to the downside and start making our moves down So coin i'm watching test i'm watching if you are looking to the upside right The group that you should really start watching is these energy names, right? You know go through if you go through the energy stocks I'll give you a couple of names, but if you go through the energy stocks Take a look right you got devin energy. It looks really really good right first close today Above the 50 day moving average look at valero, right? You got valero valero is out and rejected three times at the 50 day moving average remember the 50 day moving average How important is the same way it's important technology the same way it's important everything else You know valero looks good. Look at look at uh, no v right national oil well, right? Look look at this chart. It's a really good looking chart. So the oil oil Energy space looks really really good even financials financials. We talked about a couple of days ago moving nicely Here's a name, you know that I like look at Schwab, right? Look at Schwab here coming out of a nice long base here if this thing confirms this whole channel here Why can't this thing have another day off? So yeah, you're not going to find a lot of great looking setups to the upside in technology tomorrow Just because they came off So much from today's highs, you know, so they need some time to rest So even if they come in tomorrow Don't look at the names that are coming off the middle of the channel Look at the names again like a coin like a tesla. So they do confirm the downside You will have some pretty good value and again If all the stocks out there wouldn't you know coin? You know tesla there's some pretty good ranges in these stocks again You don't need many uh to kind of make hey, so guys have a great night everybody. God bless. It's thursday Hope everybody has a great trading session on Friday if you are planning to join us next week via the live webinar or Just kind of a reminder or the audio twitter feed We hear literally six hours of me talking comment commentary non-stop non-stop non-stop. You're gonna hate my voice If you don't already If you are planning to join us, please over the weekend Because there's no obviously no video tomorrow. Please over the weekend Watch the workshops as two workshops. It's it's it's there's incredible amounts of important information You need to understand the moving parts that you could you could kind of connect the dots and have things eventually go seamless Guys have a great night. God bless. Have an awesome day tomorrow. Have a great weekend and god's help I'll see you on monday. Take care