 Hello and welcome to this special discussion for NewsClick on Jammu and Kashmir. Exactly four years ago on August 5, 2019, the Indian government read down Article 370 of the constitution. The decision effectively revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. The region was also carved into two Union territories, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. Four years on, the Union territories are yet to hold an election. Meanwhile, this week, the Supreme Court started hearing a batch of petitions that questioned the validity of revoking Article 370. Against this backdrop today, we have with us Dr. Radha Kumar who has worked extensively in the field of peace and conflict resolution. She is a well-known expert on Jammu and Kashmir and she was an interlocutor on Jammu and Kashmir on a panel appointed by the central government in 2010. She is also a member of the Forum for Human Rights which has just released its fourth report on the human rights situation in Kashmir over the last one year. It details the political, social and economic as well as security conditions in Jammu and Kashmir over the last year. In short, it has extensive details about the human rights situation in the region. So, let us ask Dr. Radha Kumar about the report and to place in context the numerous claims and also some counterclaims that we hear about Jammu and Kashmir. A very warm welcome to you, Dr. Radha Kumar. So, let us begin with the initial part of your report itself. You know, you mentioned the Supreme Court affidavit filed by the central government where it says that there has been unprecedented progress in terms of security. All other aspects of life in Kashmir ever since 2019, August 5. Is this what your report finds based on the facts you looked at, the government data, the independent groups data? Is this what your report finds? No, quite the contrary actually. If you look at the years 2019 from August on to now 2023, government data itself shows that in comparison to earlier periods, and we can take two earlier periods, first is the peace process years, and then the interregnum between the peace process years and the rift starting to become evident in the PDP-BJP coalition government. So, 2012 to 2015, the situation was much better than it is today security wise. Whether you want to talk civilian deaths or security forces deaths or things like freedom of movement, security in those terms, everything has actually slid. It has slid compared with when? So 2012 to 2015, we chose that period because from 2016 on, you see that the coalition government of BJP PDP is deeply divided. There's a lot of tension and disagreement, and the security situation deteriorates sharply from 2016 on. Now, it's not only, the reason for that is not merely internal. If you recall, it's also a time when cross border conflict between India and Pakistan rose very sharply. And then of course, after the later, you had Pulwama as well in 2018. So we're not taking that period simply because already the BJP's policies were creating conflict in Jammu and Kashmir. That's why we've taken 2012 to 2015 as a comparison point. And we've taken it also because it's not, the peace process was over by then. So you might have expected a fallout of the decline of the end of the peace process in terms of a rise in conflict. But in fact, even allowing for those factors, you find that the number of civilian deaths was less in that period those four years than it has been in these four years. You also find that the number of security forces killed was lower in that period than it has been since 2019. So when the government talks about an improvement, the context is actually a sharp deterioration. From 2016 to 2018, you have a sharp deterioration. Then 2019 to 2020, you have a huge rise in deaths. And it's after 2021 that you see a small decline. So there is an improvement over 2019 and 2020, but there's no improvement even over 2018. Does it mean that the situation is actually on the mend in Jammu and Kashmir, considering that one of the things you point out in your report is that compared with last year, the previous year, this year's report shows a significant improvement in the security situation on some counts. The number of deaths has more than halved from 182 to 74 in some categories. Now, does it mean that things are going to keep on improving? We should... One must obviously hope that they will keep improving, as you say, on certain limited parameters. But there is no rational or analytical reason to believe that they will keep improving. Bear in mind that you have a situation in which there is a very large and very tight security presence. Now, that is an abnormal circumstance for any normal, even partially democratic society. And so the normal would be that the tight security presence will slowly reduce. Now, the minute that... as an analyst, I have to say that my greatest concern and fear is that at the moment because of this tight security, you've kept a lid on violent expressions of anger. But there is little doubt in the minds of anybody who watches the Kashmir situation that the anger is not only ever present. It is more intense than it has been perhaps since 1989-90 when the big insurgency started. So one of the fears is that as you reduce this very tight security grip, those violent expressions of anger might re-emerge. Now, that should not be seen as a reason to keep the tight security or to continue in this really ugly policy of indiscriminate arrests of people who might even just be related to somebody who once participated in an armed insurgency. Many people might see this as a reason to keep that policy in place, but that policy will only encourage more and more anger and possibly the emergence of larger armed groups with better training and better arms equipment and logistics and the rest of it. In other words, you might be looking at an insurgency type situation that we saw in the 90s which, thank heavens, we don't yet have. All that that means to me is that it's more and more imperative to more and more urgently revive a peace process, a process of dialogue, a process of conciliation so as to prevent that kind of problem happening. That is based on the understanding that you do not want to continue indefinitely a situation where you're getting close to turning that whole place into a police state. Right, now the other thing is you mentioned small arms and the 500,000 plus licenses which people have for small arms. How do we define small arms in your report and why do you think so many people have taken these licenses? Well, small arms basically is guns and again what is really curious is that in 2017 the issuing of gun licenses was banned because it was discovered that there were already some 300 and close to 350,000 small arms in a state with a relatively small population. But then a year ago that ban was lifted and this is incomprehensible to me. Why was this ban lifted? Yes, 130,000 gun licenses were issued just in the space of a few months. So these are ordinary people taking licenses, these are members of security forces taking licenses? Oh no, it's nothing to do with security forces. Gun licenses are generally issued to civilians and security forces automatically have guns, can't imagine them being unarmed. So we're talking civilians, there is no data to show what are the reasons and what are the connections. But one obvious connection will be the revival of the village defense committees now called village defense guards and the issuing of arms to them. And that happened, that policy start was revived in 2022, late 2022. Again very curiously because it was a policy that LK Advani had espoused in 2002 and it led to an intensification of violence including you know people using their guns to sort out their own squabbles with neighbors over land or so on. So such a counterproductive policy, why have you revived it? It is difficult to understand. And already we found that last year there were inter-village squabbles in which village guards were involved in shooting. The other could be the drone drops from across the border from Pakistan. There have been drops of small arms. However if we accept what the government says they have succeeded in intercepting most of those arms which means that cannot be a main a major cause of this proliferation. Right. So to be very clear about this whatever the government has said recently in the Supreme Court in its affidavit does not bear out on the ground based on statistics shared by the government and by other independent sources. And the glass half full theory would also apply to all kinds of data right that it depends on who's sharing it and in whose hand the data is and who's looking at it. So between last year and this year you would see a decline but if you really compare with the pre-2019 situation or the pre-2016 situation from 2012 to 15 in particular the situation in Kashmir and Jammu is much worse than it was before. Absolutely it is much worse than it was before and there were certain indicators for example the rising year on year rising crimes against women right and children and the arrests and yes the arrests is a separate matter but just looking at this this is happening now after 2019 that there are more crimes against women there are more crimes against children and actually there's also a rise in juvenile crime. How do we explain this? Well I think a large sum of it is of course related to a conflict situation it is as Manipur has showed us in the most horrible traumatizing way. Women tend to be targets in conflict situations often children do too. In this case of course we have a slightly more frozen conflict situation but that doesn't prevent these rises. Now you have to connect it to unemployment. Unemployment according to CMIE data which is the most reliable and trusted data in our country stood at 23.1% earlier this year three times the national average. Unemployment will breed crime it always does this is just you know a statistical fact. Absolutely. Now all of this data that I've cited apart from the CMIE data the the rise in crimes this is a government data it's NCR National Crime Records Bureau data. In fact if you look at the Jammu Kashmir Economic Survey for 2022-2023 which is partly predictive it again shows that the per capita in annual income in Jammu Kashmir is well below the national average which was never the case in Jammu and Kashmir before 2019 so so when we talk data I mean what I notice is that both in this affidavit this affidavit interestingly by the way does not give any data it's just a series of assertions but if you look at other things you know Mr. Ram Madhav's articles other articles of people who have been BJP ministers and so on you find that the data is extremely selective. Not just selective and often false. You highlight that in your report you say that on some factors like 14% economic growth rate for Jammu and Kashmir but then the RBI and the Economic Survey of India say they have no data. Yes. Now how is how could this conceivably conceivably be because there is some source of information which the government is surely using. I mean I can only speculate that the national that the finance ministry team that did the National Economic Survey and the RBI team found much of the data that was coming from that state in recent times unreliable. Or there wasn't any. No there I mean this 14% is the projection of the Jammu Kashmir Economic Survey. So it's interesting that it's not in the National Economic Survey which is presented with the budget. And it's also important to highlight that we're not just talking about Kashmir or the valley here we're talking about Jammu in Kashmir and Ladakh. Yes I mean Ladakh is not in this government data. Right now that it's a separate union territory they have their own problems with data and especially with jobs they've been protesting for government jobs as your report really dwells on that in some detail why this dramatic turn around from where they were after 2019 August and now. Ladakh yeah it's it's a speak of a you know classic example of mishandling in lay the decision to get rid of our article or read down vitiate completely hollow out article 370 was was very welcome in Kurgil not so much the Kurgilis were very worried actually but but in lay all those expectations they were told that you know now unemployment would come to an end that there would be more jobs there would be huge economic benefits and very few of those have borne fruit so there was growing anger on that front when the then lieutenant governor of Ladakh then refused even to to evacuate Ladakh students from the rest of India so that added to the anger including of those who had campaigned for union territory status then then came the lieutenant governor's administration which pretty much undercut all the executive powers of the hill councils right so there was there was no recourse anywhere no one to go to for anything. Mr Shah repeatedly said that the Ladakh especially the lay demand to be included within the sixth schedule would be very seriously considered the ministry of tribal affairs twice recommended it and yet nothing so disillusionment set in and grew and now you have a situation where the people of Kurgil and the people of lay are united in saying that they want an elected administration now they're talking about statehood. Coming all the way from lay to Delhi to protest actually demand. Yeah and look look what they did to Sonam Bangchuk who is an environmentalist and the prime minister says that is one of his top priorities and and then you know you try and make him sign you arrest him you try to make him sign a bond that he will not speak on the issues of his concern which is something of course there was done systematically to all the people who arrested after august 2019 and it's it's not surprising that there is such a sense of anger and I will say one thing that Ladakh I was always struck an arm going back to the 70s there are perhaps the most peaceable least prone to resistance people I have ever met that patience is legendary their ability to wait and to suffer patiently is something I have not seen in the rest of this country so now when this place starts to smoke you have to you have to ask yourself what on earth are you doing it didn't help to deny the Chinese incursions not to engage the people of Ladakh on on on something so close to their own interest so fundamental to their own interest as security across the border shepherds have lost their grazing lands not to acknowledge that not to show any understanding of of you know how sharp those concerns must be is again astonishing to me coming back just to the unemployment part you know unemployment in Ladakh we don't have separate figures we just have to assume it's the same 23 percent but what I find fascinating is that both the minister of state Nityanandurai and recently Ram Madhavi have said that oh the government has put 30,000 posts between 2019 and now yes but that's the 29,000 something out of 80,000 vacancies that they announced themselves in 2019 okay and 2020 so explain to me that's just about a third also of the yeah and not even that's a well just about under a third right now one section in your report before we come to the Jammu region one section in your report actually goes in great detail into various supreme court orders international conventions the laws of India the constitution of India just detailing the rights of citizens would is this something unique that must be done when a report in Jammu in Kashmir and Ladakh is prepared because who who needs this reminder well I think that it must be done for every human rights report it's very important for people who are interested in human rights to know all the sections of the law that can be used in their favor to protest a violation and then to seek recourse under those provisions of the law and even perhaps ask that those provisions need to be strengthened with maybe punitive elements for people who violate them and that's why we put them in it was for me a learning experience as well that there were so many provisions I mean our list is I think 42 now okay of violations of provisions that have been violated right in Indian law I mean it seems as if they've been violated simply because they exist because you know this leads me to you know this other question that was there something you observed which you think was heartening something to take hope in you mean over the last year over the last well I suppose you could say that the fact that there has been a decline in in civilian deaths due to counterinsurgency or crossfire is somewhat heartening it's just that we have to keep going back and saying but it was much better before 2019 as before august as also CRPF deaths yes yes yes I mean even at the worst even 2016 to 2018 which the government considers to be years of high insecurity right your CRPF deaths were less right so it really is is is quite quite appalling I would say but let's also bear in mind that perhaps one of the worst aspects of what has happened is the way that they have used the unlawful activities prevention act and the public safety act which was actually a state law but it's the one one state law that they kept while getting rid of all the rest of them is this one that allows you to arrest people and keep them without charges for up to two years it's an appalling law it should never have existed it should have been repealed by democratically elected governments and I'm very sorry that it wasn't but correct to say that the brunt of this law falls on the valley on kashmir more than it yes and and the reason for that is this a religiously motivated government and and if in that case then how are the people of jamu doing since 2019 and especially since the last year jamu again seems to be anger has grown in jamu and you have two or three I mean most of it is economic you know the change to the state subject certificate replacing with the domicile right giving people who have lived in the state for some years or who may have studied there new rights of land ownership voting etc that affects jamu far more than it does the valley the bulk of people who have applied under these new rights are are in jamu right so that's one the overall if you look at the string of land laws that have been passed while the state was under first presidents and then union territory all of them marginalize local traders local industry mining rights again more jamu than the valley they have all gone to outsiders now the new hotel brews where they have cancelled licenses well that actually affects the valley more than jamu but it affects both the communal divides and how they have sharpened within jamu have led to the rise of militancy in the peer panjal region which had been peaceful for decades that the the militancy of the 90s in that area had almost all gone there was no local support at all in fact there was hostility towards Pakistani based infiltrators now there is not that same hostility so you combine the economic and the communal and what you find is that in almost every sector of society in in jamu there is a growing alienation from the union administration from the ruling party so which brings me back to the hearings in the supreme court how would people of jamu kismir and ladakh react in your opinion if the supreme court was to turn around and say that look this revocation hasn't really worked everything shows it hasn't worked it's made the situation worse and if the situation is better then it's only a relative scale of very bad to slight improvement so let's not have this anymore um well first i should begin with a disclaimer i'm a petitioner myself in court so i really should not be speaking about those proceedings while they are ongoing however your question is how not directly yeah it's about how would people respond um from what i hear there is now a much more widespread regret uh in in jamu and in ladakh about the reading down of article 370 so i think that there might actually be celebration if if these changes are turned back what if there's an election would that be something that would no election is the need of the hour there is no doubt look you have a situation now that for four years whether it is jamu whether it is kismir whether it is ladakh who do you go to there's you know you have a problem where do you go there is nowhere to go the bureaucracy traditionally has always maintained a distance from the people uh and far more so in a state like or a region like jamu and kismir uh so you have no access no access to the bureaucracy your access was always to your elected people uh the pancha you had the panchayat elections but those punches were were targeted and so they were locked up in hotels in shrinagar and very rarely given permission even to go to their constituencies so that's not an avenue your classic avenue should be your mla but there is no mla so there's no doubt at all that elections are urgent and vital and the delimitation was done in 2022 i think it was a dreadful award but it has been accepted and completed so that can be no reason for delay the electoral roles who revised twice in 2022 by november that exercise was completed here we are eight nine months later no announcement of elections uh and meantime the government is introducing now new bills to reserve this seat and that seat and the other seat and they are pitting you know gujjars and bakarwal's against paharis really but the government also says the home minister himself has said that militancy is at an all-time low so then exactly what what reason do you have then for not holding elections do you tell me if you have a guess now you know i mean certain things i'm sorry to say are kind of obvious uh why have you introduced these four bills now in this session of parliament let us assume that you have a majority and you will be able to pass bills at any point right you could have done this three years ago right two years ago but no you choose to wait until now and what do these bills say one is about reservations uh for paharis one reserves uh seats for uh pandits and uh people from west pakistan i have no problem with that but it reserves them and then it says they can be nominated so this is they're not even going to have the right right to vote to elect their own candidates right this is a bit much then you have a third one which is adding a whole number of newcasts to the obc categories are you going to be now expanding the obc reservation quotas making them even higher it is very difficult for an impartial observer not to conclude that these are ways of trying to preset election results before you can hold the election in the hope that you might gain two three more seats it is now well known uh that the bjp is not going to do well in the elections even in jamu certainly in ladakh they will do badly and the valley of course is a foregone conclusion so yeah i'm sorry to say it seems to be a very cynical approach all right thank you very much for joining us and for explaining your findings of your report thanks again my pleasure thank you and that's all we have for you today we'll bring you more reports about the ongoing hearings in the supreme court on article 370 you can also watch our regular extensive coverage of jamun kashmir on our website useclick.in and our youtube channel thanks very much for watching news click