 What is going on, guys? Welcome to today's FanDuel Hurry Up. My name is Austin Swamin. On today's episode, we are going to be talking season-long fantasy football. And specifically, I have three guys picked out that I think are maybe going a little bit too high in most fantasy football drafts. You think about what fantasy football is. It's a combination of what we've seen from guys so far and what we can project them to do moving forward. I think in these three guys' case, we're leaning too much into what we've seen so far and not enough about what their situation and their role looks like right now. So, three guys, I think maybe are going a little too high. And I think in the first place I'm going to start, you're going to be seeing someone that's going, probably in the top first few picks of your draft. That is Austin Eckler of the Los Angeles Charters. And if you are having any mental trepidations or reservations, just like I would about Eckler after seeing what happened to another smaller running back in Christian McCaffrey, it is backed up by data. Studied by football outsiders, 2018 shows, smaller running backs, they just get hurt more often. That's kind of a no-brainer, right? But even if Eckler does manage to play 16 games, just as he did last year in 2021, this is still a guy that is significantly outperforming his role in terms of turning what he gets as an opportunity into points. And you think of Eckler, he has never amassed more than 20 carries in an NFL game. He's just not that type of running back. And you think he had 12 rushing touchdowns, fifth in the NFL last year. That is insane production. And he added eight receiving touchdowns, which is by itself almost never heard of, but almost never paired with 12 rushing scores. And as a result, Eckler really outperformed his role last year. He actually, according to pro football focus, his expected fantasy points model outperformed his role by 6.8 touchdowns. That is a lot of fantasy points coming off the board of things, don't exactly swing his way on that talented Chargers offense this year. And don't forget, talented rookie Isaiah Spiller from Texas A&M, now a member of this backfield. So Eckler, I think has plenty of concerns and questions, he'll probably go in the top five of your fantasy football draft. I'm probably looking elsewhere, but from there, I go to guys that are going a little bit later in the draft, but I think it's a little bit of the same story. That is Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs Series. The next guy I'm looking at a quarterback in, I feel like that insane Buffalo playoff game where he and Josh Allen were just in a full blown shootout has kind of masked what was a horribly pedestrian Caesar by Mahomes standards already. He was just pro football focus his 14th ranked quarterback last year. And he was held to 21 or fewer fantasy points in eight of his 17 games, nearly half of them. And that is closer to the floor you get from a guy like Kirk Cousins or someone that you might take in the 10th round. Mahomes this year has the fifth hardest schedule in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last year, so it's a difficult schedule. And you think about his division, the Raiders added Chandler Jones, the Chargers added JC Jackson and Khalil Mac to their defense. And of course, the big thing with Mahomes that you'll hear as the talking point, he's now without Tyree Kale. And we've really yet to see him with an extended period without the All-Star, Tyree Kale or the tight end Travis Kelsey who's still in the fold. And he's currently going as the quarterback too in most drafts picked around that 30th overall pick. You look at guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hertz, they have a much higher floor as guys that use their legs. And then there's also guys like Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, where the offense around them this year is significantly better than it was on paper a year ago. There are way too many guys to me to take Mahomes second overall behind Josh Allen. I think expecting Mahomes to stay here in arguably the worst situation of his career is just not logical. So Mahomes may be a little bit overdrafted and I think AJ Brown is as well. AJ Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles, we think about the Eagles being a quality team from last year and they went on that run that led them into the playoffs, but it was really a run heavy approach. We kind of forget what a dreadful passing offense Philadelphia had last year. They had a 50% situation neutral, meaning the game was within seven points, 50% situation neutral pass rate that was second lowest in the league. They averaged just 0.13 passing net expected points for dropback. So a below league average mark there. And Devontae Smith led this team in targets, 6.1 targets per game. That is a fantasy disaster for a guy that you're potentially taking in that second third round area where AJ Brown is going right now. And I'm just personally not of the belief that Brown will turn Philadelphia into this high powered, high flying offense when they had Devontae Smith, Dallas Goddard. And it just wasn't getting it done. Hertz just isn't a great passer down the field at this stage in his career. He's just much more of a better overall player. And right now you look at AJ Brown. He's going as the wide receiver nine in drafts around that 30th mark just like Mahomes. Look who's around him. Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, no Rob Gromkowski connected to Tom Brady of Keenan Allen in the aforementioned Chargers offense as the lead guy that offense loves to throw the ball. And Aaron Jones, who's probably Aaron Rogers top target this year out of the backfield. To me, this is way too high of an acquisition cost for Brown. Given this is an offense that is yet to show us they can pass the ball consistently at a high level.