 Welcome traders to the techno weekly market outlook for week commencing the 30th of January with me, Patrick Rundley. This week is really packed with central bank ratings and markets expect Federal Reserve to raise what rates by 25 basis points given officials moving in the right direction. The European central bank and rate type of 50 basis points looks like a dumb deal and the bank of England is likely to follow in the ECB's footsteps given that wage growth is persistently high. So in the US, two major events will shape market sentiment in the weekend. First obviously is the Federal Reserve policy meeting. Markets expects the FOMC to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points, having raised by 75 basis points on four consecutive occasions last year and that lifted the policy rate by 50 basis points in December. This marks a clear slowdown in the pace of tightening and appears justified given inflation is moving in the right direction and activity starts to slow. However, the Fed remains wary and will again suggest that it is not the end of the interest rate increases. Central bank will also be keen to dismiss the notion that it's preparing for potential rate cuts later this year. Financial conditions have loosened given movements in the dollar, treasure yields and credit spreads and it may feel that any further loosening fueled by the talk of potential policy easing in the second half of the year could undermine its current actions in the face of inflation. And then rounding out data intensive week in the US is going to be the January jobs report on Friday. Employment creation remains strong for now but job layoff announces are coming thick and fast. Markets are nervously watching what happens to the temporary help component which has already experienced five consecutive months of falls. In the nature of the role which is easier to be hired into and fired from, this tends to lead to broader shifts in employment. The search market expects to see a softer non-payrolls increase when in recent months but it is still likely to be well above the 100k level given the large number of job vacancies. Other data in the US this week on Monday we get the January Dallas Fed Index looking for conditions to remain soft across the regions and on Tuesday January consumer confidence last time out 108.3, uptrending confidence limited by rates and real income squeeze and also on Wednesday we get manufacturing PMI 46.8 last time out, manufacturing activity remains in a fragile state with S&P and ISM broadly mirroring each other on that reading. So in terms of the technical setup for the dollar index as we head into this February week with the central bank meeting and the jobs report, I'm looking for the dollar to break down to a new load to test the projected trend line support coming in just above 150 level from there as long as you maintain this bullish momentum divergence and for bullish results engaged on the long side looking for a three-way corrective move back in to test just below the 103 level. At this stage any close below the 100 level would be a significant bearish development hoping to move down to test the next support area down to the 99 thirds. In the Eurozone obviously we have the ECB on Thursday as I say when the central bank meets all eyes and ears will once again be on the communication aspect in the form of the press conference. The rate of 50 basis points looks like a done deal but how far and how fast the ECB will go from there is still unclear. Markets expect hawkish comments by ECB President Christine McGarney in order to prevent another drop in market interest rates. Current market expectations about ECB rate cuts in 2024 would seem somewhat premature at this stage. In terms of other data on Monday we would get consumer confidence and economic confidence in the Eurozone. Falling gas prices should provide some support to overall economic sentiments. On Tuesday Q4 GDP 0.3% economic resilience is likely to be tested in the coming months. On Wednesday generally CPI 9.2% last time out. Falling energy prices feeding the decline in headline inflation within the Eurozone. We'll also get December an employment rate 6.5% last time. Slack is starting to emerge slowly over the coming months in terms of the employment rates in Eurozone. Obviously the ECB meeting rounds out the data there on Thursday. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar looking for one more extension to the upside so move back through resistance 109.30s to testing to the assembling trend channel resistance coming in at 109.60s as long as we maintain momentum divergence there and look for various reversal patterns from gauge on the short side we can to play a corrected move back into test support once again into this 108.20, 108.30 and from there we watch a bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side. Next upside objective is going to be a test of 110. So moving to the UK as I say the Bank of England are up this week as well in terms of basis point increases we're looking for a 50 basis point move. Bank looks more likely to follow the lead of the European Central Bank in the Federal Reserve on Thursday and we are looking at a 50 basis point hike for the second consecutive meeting while the minutes of the December meeting appear to open the door to a potential downshift to a 25 basis point move this month. The reality is that the recent data has looked relatively hawkish. Wage growth is still consistently high both in official numbers and the BOE's own business survey. Headline inflation came in a little lower than the bank out projected back in November but services CPI seen as a better gauge of domestically driven inflation has come in above expectations. If we do get this 50 basis point hike on Thursday and it's likely to be the last, the officials have suggested that much of the impact of last year's rate hikes is still to show through and cracks are forming in interest rates sensitive parts of the economy expect one final 25 basis point move in March taking the bank to a peak terminal rate at 4.25 percent. Key question for Thursday is whether the bank itself acknowledges its work is nearly complete. I suspect it's more likely to keep its options open then close the door at this stage. In terms of other data in the UK, Norway's lending out on Tuesday we are looking to see gradual easing as the housing correction really starts to take pace in the UK so looking for a 4.4 billion print there and so with the policy rate on Thursday that rounds out the income data in terms of in terms of the UK. Moving to the charts, Stirling is consolidating below these prior highs at the 12440s being in a triangle pattern here so I'm looking for any move back into test the support 12340s which is a bullish reversal factor there to engage on the long side next upside objective being on 125 tests. At this stage it would take a close back through 12320 to suggest a retest of support back into the 12260s. Well in the end so we can look at the econ data for the week in Japan and it is a very scant slate there so really all we've got on Tuesday is December industrial production globally land risk still at play there so 0.2% last time looking to something in that region and that is the only data available in Japan. From a technical perspective Dolly Yen still training within this descending trend channel so I'm looking for any pop into the just below the 131 level what should bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side and then we'll be looking for price to break down through the corrective channel here so back down through 12870s on route to retest price cycle lows 12720s and then from there obviously we're looking to move down to test 125 as the next pivotal support level. At this stage we will take a close back through the trend channel resistance so through 13150s to put in a test of 13280s on the upside. We've down under two Australia in terms of data next week what do we have on Tuesday we get retail sales looking for some weakness to start to develop there coming off very strong prints in November so looking for a 0.4% print for retail sales then on Wednesday CoreLogic home value index broad-based correction still firmly entrenched in terms of the housing market in Australia looking for a negative 0.12% print there and on Thursday we get dwelling approvals showing a clear downtrend in response to rate rises that have been seen in Australia and so looking for a 1.3% print there we round out the week down number with housing finance looking for negative 3% print there down 24% from January peaks that's still above the pre-COVID levels both turnover and average price is still moving lower for the Australian housing markets from a technical perspective the ultimate dollar and the names are robust at this stage and we are targeting this weekly trend channel resistance 7350 spot I'm looking for here is any move into 7180s just tell you that 72 level watch for three-way corrected move back into test sending trend trends support there's something in the 70 30 areas from there want to watch a bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side next upside objective is going to be a move up into the 7260s ahead of that 7350s and last but not least let's just take a quick sentiment check in terms of our weekly our weekend risk monitor the coin continues to consolidate above the 23,000 level as it does I'm looking for a breakthrough the 23,800 to target a move up to 25,000 which holds side so 26,600 is the yearly pivot so that's the 25,000 26,000 will make key levels on the upside for Bitcoin and that concludes the weekly market outlook for weak men's in the 30th of January as always traders plan the trade trade plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much