 Welcome traders to this week's live treadmill session with me Patrick Munley just to give it another 30 seconds here before we get going. If you could do me a favor if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen if you type of wines in the chapbox, that would be great so that I know we are set to start. Thanks very much. And that brings us to 2pm UK time. Once again, welcome to today's session. Before we get going, we just want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly, for today's conversation, the views expressed by me here today are solely mine and not indicative of all representative of those held by tick mill Europe or tick mill UK limits. So for those that are here for the first time, a brief introduction to myself after I graduated from King's College London I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues went on to successfully co found an exit consulting startup, which was focused on C sweet executive search for technology businesses, having a front row seat to the dot com bubble witnessing how people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally at times overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading or probably more appropriately day gambling. I started with the S&P 500 after some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains, however, as is often the case, my beginners that run out. And as the market phase change I began to average down into losing positions giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit my personal capital to say that was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market so I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months or two years, there's a time during which I had not just my technical gain in terms of researching developing its sense of the back and forward testing strategies that crucially sees my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientation individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that mean well it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the market, losing trades. But once you become process oriented and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment that hellish emotional role of coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. I'm concerned with the next 100 trades because I know that if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has been profitable on an annual basis since in 2013. I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service again delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. So 2010 I've also meant to hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tickmail. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for three to five markets that I'm actively tracking, and they're all shared through the tickmail trading view accounts. I also run tickmills rapidly growing evenly strategy Facebook group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trading plan for the cash trading session in New York. I give my bias for the day and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the markets. These pre-market plans have delivered over 1850 points of profit since we launched the group last April. The second tickmail strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The tickmail futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights and analysis and live trades. I also live stream during the opening hour of the cash session where traders can essentially look over my shoulder and watch in real time as I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These live trade sessions, a lot may help to act as a platform to help traders develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets. And most importantly, the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. We will jump into the charts. I can see a few questions have come through here. Jess, I will post the link to the Facebook group, you know, in a second. There's the link for the Facebook group, you just have to request access. For those that are interested in learning more about the telegram group, I suggest you email me. My email address is patrick.money at tickmailpartners.com, and I can explain more about what we do there. The one requirement for the telegram group is that you must have a futures account, a live futures account with tickmail. For the Facebook group, that's not necessary. It's just, you just have to request access to the group. Okay, so let's jump into the charts. What I'm going to do is I'm going to run through the main markets that I'm tracking at the moment, some of the setups that I'm monitoring. And then at the end of the session, if you have any questions, I'll open up a brief Q&A, or if there's any chart you'd like me to take a look at, I don't cover in my presentation here. And again, we can look at this in the Q&A. So let's start with the S&P 500. Obviously, we have been in a volatility here, sharp decline, witnessed over January, and we are now seeing a recovery unfold or an attempt to recover. The other lines in the sound for me with respect to whether or not we have seen a meaningful trading low and we're going to retest price cycle highs and move higher still is really this 78.6% retracement of the current decline. We've also got a daily chart. We've also got this high volume note as well. So 46.85 is the area of real interest to me. If we break through there and get a couple of days close above that level, then I think we'll be going back to retest price and on route to making new highs. The rate level then would be 49.70 on the S&P contracts. For the near term, what I'm looking for is a trade, is a corrective move to unfold versus the swing high that we got earlier this yesterday, 45.85, 45.80. So what I'm looking for now is a three way of corrective move, and I'm going to be looking to get involved then on the long side, looking for, so what I anticipate is something like this would be the ideal pattern. And then I'll be looking to bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side, looking for an extension up into the 46.40 46.29 area. I'm going to go in sides with the underside of the trend line there 46.30s. And then from there that's going to be that should complete an interim cycle. And then once again what I've been looking for would be another correctively probably slightly larger corrective move to unfold and retest support back into the base there 44.46. Once again seeing if balls are going to step back in and take take this higher. If we don't find support there then we could be looking at the next leg to the downside and the target to the downside if we do roll over. I'll be looking for a test of the 4000 level as the next downside objective but the interim setup for me here is going to be watching for a correction into this 45.07. And then I'll be looking at the 400 level and what's bullish reversal patterns targeting move back up through 4600. NASDAQ seen a bit of weakness obviously with the Facebook earnings coming out overnight and they disappointed there, but we've got a similar structure in the NASDAQ here so what I'm looking for is any responsive action from the support here. The 400.06 looking for a three-way corrected move before seeing if fires are going to step back in meaningfully to run up into the 15600 level will be the next objective. What I'm essentially looking at is this to get these targets is the first leg off the low. If it's any way you're interested in that that's obviously the wave one and then when we get that way for corrective load or just a swing over here. I'm always looking for a minimum for a wave one extension to the upside to complete to complete that initial cycle here so that's when I when I'm putting these measurements up it's not I'm just pulling back through these levels out for now I'm using market moves to measure where we're likely to end up when moves are likely to terminate. And one of the things I'm always also always tracking is momentum divergence. And so where we don't get meaningful momentum divergence that then suggests to me that we work that there's a high probability we'll see another high in this in this current leg. So that's what I'm looking at with the NASDAQ Dow Jones. It's a very well defined tier so with the Dow and looking for pullbacks into the support here at 35,000. Again, ideally we get that in a three wave move and then we're looking for an extension to the upside. And I'm looking for a test here at the 36,000 level you can also see on the daily charts. And using the pitchfork we have that projected descending trend line resistance coming in at the 36,000 as well. And the 36,000 also equals 78.6% retracement of this this move to the downside so that's going to be a key area when test they'll be watching to bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side certainly thinking about a move back down into test the sending trend line resistance to the 34,000, 34,800 level, and then we'll see how how price responds once we get down there. So that's the story in the Russell. It's a little bit, a little bit more of an interesting pattern here to the Russell because we've got this ledge so sweet that we broke down from the first retest of that should attract some interest so you want to pay attention to the above 2100 level. And what I'm looking at now will be a three way extension here so we can get a pullback in the Russell like so. And then we look for an equality objective to take us up into that 2100. And from there we've been looking for various reversal patterns to engage on the short side for a test back down so 2100 is the area to pay close attention to on this Russell and certainly forget it in a three wave structure that will add additional confidence the idea that the move is corrective and as such that we can see a resumption of the current trend which is to the downside. DAX. So DAX, I highlighted this earlier in the week and in the TradingView account, the Tipman TradingView account, I'll post a link to that at the end of the session. DAX has a similar setup to the Russell, we'll just go back to the Russell chart. As you can see we were in this broadening top pattern, spiked the support so found one, one more leg to the upside and then rolled over. You can see that the DAX has a similar scenario developing here. We've got this, this ledger support coming in just below 14900. What I'd ideally like to see here with DAX is just to see if we completed the measured move. So we have this and this and so we can see a little bit more strength here in terms of the DAX we're holding. So I'll be looking at the same pattern at the moment. So what I'd ideally like would be a move up into the 15,845 high-volume node just above 15,920. So I'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns in this zone to sexual positions, targeting a spike of the lows at 15,000 before we get another recovery, and then I'll be looking for the larger push to the downside similar to that pattern that we just highlighted in the Russell. Pay close attention to 15,800 which is the equality objective versus the current swing structure. And if we can get up into that area and watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, targeting a move down to the support at 15,000, potentially a spike of those lows. Futures contracts, 10 million notes in the US. It's quite a clean setup that I'm watching here. I'm looking for price to test the 128,27 level. I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side. So if we're shorting the Treasury notes or anticipating that the yield is going to rise, price moves inversely to the yield. I've been closely on as an amendment by all market participants as we as we move towards the potential for this move in March from the Fed. So what I'm looking for ultimately is this 125 which represents the equality objective from the high here versus that swing low to that swing high. So 125,10 is the real area of interest. Now, the immediate trade for me to get involved in that is watching how we respond at 128,27. And here's the inverse of that chart with the 10 year yields. So we will be anticipating a break higher in yields, looking ideally for a test up towards the 2% level to broadly co broadly coincide with that 125 low. And then I think we can see a bit more corrective action that you can see we've got a nice triangle pattern developing here. So any break through the triangle would suggest that we are on route to to make this move to grind higher to the to the 2% level. Let's just So we have 1.97 1.947 is the 127 extension of this current consolidation pattern and the initial target so what more often than not what we get what we get when we get this break out. We test the one to whatever you're looking for is a test of the 127 a pullback and then the extension up into 161 target zone. And from there, I'll be looking for certainly a more sustained corrective move. And that would broadly coincide with that 125 test on the actual notes contract dollar index. So bit tweaks in between at the moment. What we're looking for. I'm looking for this 61.8% retracement and the ascending trend line 98 30s to get tested we've seen a bit of a pullback here in recent sessions but ultimately now I'm looking for this move to develop in a three way pattern that gets us down into the 95 20s which is a trend line support and interim trend line support. I'm looking for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, looking for that move up into the 98 20s 98 30s. At this stage, we really need to see a close below this trend line. 94 60 would have to go to get meaningfully bearish on the dollar. I'm still looking for anticipating that as we head into this, this March meeting that we can see one more high in the dollar for this cycle. We can see that kind of buy the rumors sell a fact type set up into that meeting of the idea that we're up in testing this and then I think we can see some dollar weakness develop. You know, obviously trading the inverse to the dollar. What I'm looking for in the neuro ideally is the test of the descending trend line resistance here let me just pull up this. We also have the 78.6% retracement of the entire client so we are looking for this just above the 110 area to get tested. And that should that would probably coincide then with the dollar achieving that 98 objectives. So I'm looking for one more leg of weakness here in the euro to give the test about 78.6% retracement and then I see, then I see the potential for a more meaningful bounce to develop. So paying close attention to how price responds with checking back into underside of the price support they can see despite yesterday, we're seeing a bit of a reversal here today. So we'll see if you can get follow through on the downside to set set that test of just another 110 level before we get the real sustained corrective move in in the euro. See on the week a chart bunch of trend line support coming in there as well. So that's going to really be a key area of interest and quite a significant inflection point I think for these, these currency markets. Sitting in a triangle, not dissimilar to gold, more often than not. You'll find with me that we'll just turn that while so and so you'll find that the trade in inverse fashion but what we're looking at here with with the dollar yen is the potential now for a pullback to retest support here at the 1369. And then from there be watching the bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a break and actually have a target here on the dollar yen that we bring this in for you. But we're looking forward to the quality objective from this area here. So I'm ultimately targeting for this leg test of 1778. And again, if that if the dollar index can hold its support zone that I've highlighted that will coincide with the dollar yen doing this and having a similar set up, and we'll be looking to to engage on the long side in the dollar yen. So the CAD held the help the trend line support that I've highlighted in last week's session, or a couple of weeks ago. So we have this trend line here, and the only concern here at the moment for the dollar CAD is that the move from the loans looks doesn't have really have impulsive qualities as such it looks a bit more corrective because you can see we're actually coming in to test the quality objective here, which is the 12880 so what I anticipate we see here is a move that tests up into that so fails pulls back and then there is the potential to set an inverse head and shoulders pattern to trade to the upside. At this stage, it was really good to get various dollar CAD for me anyway, we need to see a close below this trend line support, and that doesn't look like is like what we're going to be dealing with this juncture. So, I prefer here this inverse head and shoulders scenario so what you're going to move back into 126 30s to get in on the long side, and we're going to look for for a further upside extension, in terms of the dollar CAD. Euro sterling this one's interesting as we have had the BOE obviously it's very easy to be at the moment. And we have spiked into that descending trend line support that I've been paying attention to. So I'm watching that see if we can get a impulsive reaction here from the trend line. Otherwise, as you can see on the weekend chart on the top right there, any clothes through the 80 to 80s will be a significant bearish development. So we have a gap down the lowest there at the 81 handle which would be the next downside objective so watching carefully how price response here this is a pivotal level. If we break, we look for a follow through and then first pull back into this price support as resistance is a high probability scenario. Alternatively, we get an impulsive reaction here and potential for more meaningful bounce and pay close attention to your sterling coming sessions. Dollar, sorry sterling dollar. What I'm anticipating here we got obviously the rain hike in the UK this afternoon. But it's looking like a bit of a by the room itself a fact type scenario here so I'm paying close attention in. You can see we have five ways structure here. We're watching now for a pullback, which ideally will be in a three way pattern like so. And then I think we can get a retest up into the price here as this move looks at the moment to be impulsive. And then we have the sending trend line resistance coming in 3680 so 3680. So this this pattern play out on the interest rate for our time frame that three way direction into the 3435 13490 area, which would bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and we'll see if we eventually get a break at this triangle. The Aussie, the Aussie is training back in a game to let me draw this in. Looking for the Aussie to test. We want to see a test of this trend broken trend line support to act as resistance coming at 72 hands. Let's see if we've got a set up here. We are holding the. What we see now with the Aussie is a three wave move that brings us back into test and hold the 7770 level sorry. And then we're looking for an upside extension up into that 70 to 90 73 area, and that's going to be a decision point because it can recapture prices above there and get acceptance about there. So we've got a trend line coming in back up towards 7450 on the Aussie. So it's going to be interesting to see how we respond if we get this pattern play out in the Aussie we could have an opportunity there on the long side. Kiwi has completed the test of that equality objective pretty much to the pit there. So we're looking at 5550s on the weekly timeframe. So what we're looking for now is a five wave sequence, and we can track one essentially here. So I do get a new hire now that takes us up into the weekly projected range of distance. Then we're looking for that three wave corrected pattern ideally to test back into the 6611 area. So what we're looking for would be an opportunity on the long side to initially play for an equality objective. And we've got a high volume load up at 6810. At this stage, any loss of the lows back into that 6530 6560 area will be a bearish development. And then we'd be thinking about to move down into the 6430s will be the next target on the downside but we're looking for an impulse set up here and a pullback to do something on the long side. Gold in that continuing to prostrate traders in the triangle. But for me at the moment, if we get a pullback into the 1786 level, I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns to actually engage on the long side, looking for a move up into objective sending the distance that comes in at 1860s and see if we do ultimately get a breakout in gold. If, if we do get a move, let's just get a target level. As you can see we have an equality objective up to 1940s as the first target in terms of a potential break of that triangle on gold. Let's jump to Crudor. This is one that I'm monitoring closely at the moment. The chart updates. So we had a potential for a way three high to develop as we tested, despite towards the 90 level yesterday was waiting for the chart to update here. It's a little bit slow there with me. What I'm looking for in crude now is that update. Let's move back into the 82 60s. So if I just scrunch child a little bit and you'll see exactly the pattern I'm tracking it. So we've got a potential way three high as a wedge. So any corrections. Now we look to fail here at the back into the 89 handle. And then we're looking for an extension to the downside to target 82 60s. And we're watching for bullish reversal patterns as we have the five equals one upside objective, which would take us up into the 93 handle is the target to the upside, if this pattern plays out so I'm watching for a break through this to set up and move back into 82 80 80 to 60 area and I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side in terms of crude. Bitcoin. Bitcoin is being rejected at the moment from that trend line again, but it's not. I'm second. Just waiting for this chart to go. So I think in the near term, there could be an opportunity here to play counter trend on the long side. Any pullbacks now that find support. So we can get a bullish reversal from this 35. 35,455 which will British reverse patterns there to engage on the long side and the initial target for that move is going to be quality objective at 41,200. That's one that I'm paying close attention to so pullbacks now that find support again at the 35,500 level are an opportunity alongside targeting 41,200. So at this stage, it would take a loss of the prior lows at the 33,200 to set up the move to get the test here and below of sub 30, sorry, I'm sub 30,000 and I'd be expecting some support to develop there in terms of Bitcoin but in the immediate setup here for me is is a hold of support here extension to the outside. So those are the markets that I'm tracking at the moment where I see opportunities are going to be active obviously this afternoon in the S&P 500 in the E-mini strategy group. Thanks very much Jess. Any questions or anyone like me to take a look at the market that I haven't covered. If you don't have a question, if you type an N in the chat box that's just as helpful so I know I've done a reasonable job of explaining everything and we can wrap the session up here. The, the other Facebook to access the Facebook group just use the link and send a request and I'll, I'll add you into the group. I can't see any other questions so I'm going to wrap this session up here. Thank you very much for the time and hope you found this useful. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan, most importantly manage your risk until next time. Thanks very much.