 Welcome traders to this week's live trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munley, before we get going here in the next 30 seconds or so. Can you just type a Y in the chat box if you can hear me loud and clear and you can see the TickMeal welcome screen, Y in the chat box just to let me know that we are good to go. Thanks very much. Okay, so that is 2pm GMT. We're out of British summertime now. Okay, so before I get going with today's presentation, I just want to, with respect to if you have any questions during the presentation, you can just make a note of them and I'll open up a Q&A at the end of the presentation for any questions regarding the charts that I've shared with you today and or any instrument you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in the presentation. Before we get going, it's important that we adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most importantly and relevant to today is that any views expressed by me here today are solely mine, they're not indicative, all representative of those held by TickMeal UK or TickMeal Europe Limited. Let me just turn off this Newswire background there. So for those of you who are here for the first time today, just a brief introduction to myself. My name, like I say, is Patrick Munley. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm and left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. So essentially I had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500 or more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, the beginners luck run out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, basically giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure hit to my capital. So this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was easy for people for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of about 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I up not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing, sensibly back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality. But most importantly, during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused purely on financial gains to becoming process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing solely on managing my mind and what I could make for the markets and focus more on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you are simply playing the probabilities, you lose that emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know by focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered annual profitable returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to reach consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in some other market-orientated projects and resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick Mill. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I think we've got an example of one of those here. Let's go to the blog. Here's today's daily market outlook, providing breakdown of what's happened in the overnight market, what we're looking at for the day ahead options that are in play, and then I look at some of the FX majors and give some insights into what's going on with them. You can access that through the blog there and you can sign up to receive that as a newsletter on a daily basis. I also I'm now sharing trades into this Tick Mill account on trading views. On average, I share about three to five setups that I'm tracking on a daily basis. I'll just post a link into the chat there so you can subscribe or follow those trades and you get the automatic alerts as to when I post a new update there. They're certainly worth in terms of learning how to professionally approach the markets and have a consistent strategy to be trading. Glean some pretty good information from those. Then I guess most recently, I've been tasked with running Tick Mill's rapidly growing E-mini strategy group. This is a private Facebook group where on a daily basis, I share a trade plan for the New York cash session. That begins at 2.30 UK time. I set out a plan. I give trade levels that I'm watching. Let me see. Let me look here at an example from yesterday. This was yesterday's plan. It's a short video. Precise levels that I'm looking to engage in the market with and you can access that. I also post some institutional insights as well in there. You can see just this morning some research from Bank of America regarding the S&P and the yield spikes that we're currently seeing. For those traders that want to take things a step further and really get serious about trading the E-mini S&P, we've now opened up a private telegram group where during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, I am live streaming trading, live trading, through a live stream of a screen share through the opening hour of the cash session in New York. Then I provide updates throughout the day as to trades that I'm taking or positions I'm in and how I'm managing those. Since we've been running the strategy groups since April, the assets I've given are provided over 1,300 points of profit and you can see here this month so far we're up 85.5 points which equates to 4.75 percent of my accounts. What I'll do is I'll drop the strategy group link in there. You just request to join and you can access that daily trade plan so I'll just post that into the chat there. Then if anyone wants to take things like I say a step further and join me in the live telegram group, you can contact me, you can connect with me through LinkedIn and send me a message and we can set that up. I've just posted my LinkedIn profile there into the chat. That gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from and the type of things I have done and am doing consistently. Now let's move into the charts and see where the opportunities are that I'm currently monitoring. As usual, we're going to start with the S&P. This is actually the E-mini S&P, the futures contract. It basically tracks the S&P 500 so if you can only access the US 500 you just adjust the levels for the spread. We have a potential wave three high in place. What we were talking about last week was the potential for a symmetry swing. When I talk about symmetry swing I'm talking about price correction that's equal to the wave two and what we're going to do is overlay that versus the potential wave three high and that gives us a wave four target zone which would have us trading back down into 4608 territory and traded 4628 on the loans yesterday and then I'm looking for prices to consolidate here and then I'm looking for long positions to play for a wave five extension up into this trend line resistance. That would bring us in now base if we hold the symmetry swing support that would put us up at 47, 77 into the year end and then I think into January we'll probably see a little bit more of a corrected move before trying to advance again into early 2022. You'll note we don't have any divergence here on that last high so that gives confidence in the idea that we're actually trading a wave three here as opposed to a topping pattern completing a wave five cycle to the upside so looking to get long playing for that upside objective into year end. I'll just pull up the intraday chart here this is a four hour chart for the human S&P and this is a pattern I'm tracking here looking for a potential triangle play so we've seen that move back into the pivot here at 46, 61 we probably get a bit of a rejection here and then what I've looked for would be for prices to hold support in let's say 4640 area and then do a three wave move into the descending trend line resistance get that final pullback into the 23.6% retracement of the wave three which is a minimum requirement in terms of setting up that base support for the next leg higher and then we'll watch for bullish reversal patterns here at the 4625 if this pattern plays out like I anticipate and then we'll be looking for that long fifth wave and I labeled it here as or sorry I've measured it here as the fifth wave at least equal to the first wave and so that's the type of scenario I'm looking at at the moment in terms of the human S&P. Now that's that similar story we have a potential wave four low in place here now let's just draw in what we're looking at so we have this pattern is what we want to pay attention to so we're looking for five equals one versus our correction let's see if we have symmetry swing here and do so we slightly exceeded the wave two in terms of the overlay here but you can see that tail there strong reversal so what we look for now is a break of the trend line here so we'll be looking for prices to extend through 16290 and then we'd have a target on the upside then at 16,633 so about 350 points to play for there if that pattern plays out there is the possibility obviously that we want to that we could do a double correction here when I talk about double correction what I mean is that this would actually be our a wave low we get a b wave here and then we get a c wave equality move and then we still get that fifth wave extension that would be a slightly more complex correction but this this move at the moment certainly potentially has some impulsive qualities so we'll have to see the key is going to be recapturing this descending trend line resistance and once we're through there then we should take out the highs and extend up into the fifth wave equality objective but for now whilst we hold here we'll see if we can get this this advance going to the upside this is the ym the e-mini dow looking for a another leg here let's draw this in so what I'm going to suggest is that this is our a wave low this is our b wave so I'm looking for one leg lower here in the dow and there is an opportunity then to to get long so ideally we check up into the pivot down into the equality objective then we'd be looking for a fifth wave extension to the upside so this is one that I'm going to be tracking closely today because I think the setup has a very clean structure here in terms of the corrected pattern let's overlay the trend line versus current well so you see here we could we could run a bit deeper so it could do a double double correction which would be this scenario so we're going to move into here we get back up into this area and then we get another three-wave move down into the trend line support before extending to the upside the basis that this was quite a sharp wave two correction the rule of automation in an elite way would suggest that we potentially have a more protracted correction corrected in the wave four after it being a sharp correction in wave two but that's not necessary that doesn't necessarily have to be the case so again what I mean what I look for here in these scenarios is we look for the trend line break to give us cleansers to the strength of the of the impulse here if we have a wave four low in place we would anticipate a break and then an extension through the price and I'm to get up into the projection semi-trend line resistance heading towards 37,000 down there the Russell Russell 2000 small caps in the US so again we have the Russell has potentially looks like it's completed what could be its wave four across the objective so we could have a wave four low in place here and again what I'll be looking for to encourage long positions is going to be a break of the trend line that's in play there so we'll see a break of the trend line and really get up to challenge this e-wave high and then maybe a little bit of consultant so this is the type of thing I was thinking about up into here there through the highs and an armed four fifth wave equality objective if we are going to suggest this is our one recycle here so we're going to move up into that 25-20 area on the Russell there so again watching that watch that trend line break and then for a shallow corrective move to get in on the long side DAX continues to track higher here what we're looking for now through the highs so we've got a confirmed bullish sequence now what we want to see is what sort of wave structure we have in terms of looking for entry points so one two three four five six seven swings so what we don't hope for here would be a pop back down into so we look for a an extension higher here and a three wave into this channel support to set the base then for the fifth wave extension to the upside the European equity is showing some outperformance here so we can get this if we can get this set up then I've been looking at adding to long positions I've already got running in the DAX here for that extension up into the 16500 which is the projected sending trend line resistance for the current cycle that we're trading in at the moment dollar index so you can see where sorry the basic theme there with these equity indexes are I think we're in a corrective phase here I'm watching for some key structure breaks to set up the opportunities to trade on the long side into year end as we could see a melt up here as portfolio managers have to chase performance is what is the thought process behind all of that let me get to why here let's get daily timeframe so dollar index obviously yesterday we got that really hot CPI and the market to the shines and the dollar on basis that they anticipate tapering is going to be roll out quicker or potentially with rate hikes I'm looking now to to fade this next advance here into this trend lines and we've got the uh weekly r3 here so 95 50s I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns and I'm going to go short then looking for a pullback into these prior highs 94 50 areas about 100 points to play ball there and then I'm looking for a blowout move to the upside to basically take test the 50% of the placement of the of the prior decline from there I'm going to be watching for bearish reversal patterns to go short looking for a test of this trend line support back down into 93 95 and if we get through there then that would suggest that this corrected move versus the versus the impulse to the downside is complete and we could start to think about the next leg to the downside in terms of dollar index however if we hold this trend line support on any test then it could be that we're thinking that this uh this is actually a wave three and not a corrected pattern so if it's a wave three what we anticipate is that we get up uh get through the 50% of the placement the pullback would be equal or we'd be thinking about and sometimes the quality objective versus this being our wave uh wave two correction and then we get a further leg of that side in what would also improve to be a five wave advance in uh in the dollar index and just show you what I'm talking about here so this would be our obviously our wave one and this would be the type of pattern we could anticipate in terms of if we don't if the sellers don't step in at the 50% of the placement zone and we don't take out the trend line support and this would be the alternative scenario in terms of the dollar index and we've got equal ways of dollar here this is the dollar uh versus uh the Aussie the Euro sterling and the yen and you can see we've got the same pattern developing here so I'm looking to fade this next advance and then we'll see if we can hold this prior highs and support for one more move no we've got this nice momentum divergence developing so this is uh we're reaching some pretty interesting inflection points not only the dollar index but in the majors let's just jump into a couple of those a euro to start with looking for a test here into just below 114 and then I'm watching for bullish reversal patterns I think we can reasonably expect then at least a three-way correction to test the 11570 trend line if we can get through there then I look for a test up into the midpoint of the channel we've been trading in uh for 11747 and again now this is it's important trading information if we don't hold here um then we can start to think that this is actually an impulse to the downside and we're looking at at trading it as such but for now until proven in or two are two invalidated um we're going to look to play the the long side we've got similar situation developing in sterling here we've got a nice um potential wedge pattern developing here so we're looking for prices to test down into um we're looking for a test you didn't get it well we've all we pretty much tested it to the pit there uh 13360 we've got the equality objective versus this swing uh B wave high there's a C 13319 so we're in the ballpark here so I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns potentially bullish reversal patterns anyway to look for a three-way correction something to think about the pivot at 13640 and then we got the trend line resistance coming in 13693 equally if we lose the the 133 handle um to the downside then we look to this high volume back down below 130 so that'd be a pretty bearish development but one that we want to keep an eye on but for now we're looking to see if we can hold this zone and uh and do something on the long side dolly yen it's held up nicely here from the uh the pattern that's that we were looking at um now again with the dolly yen let me just get rid of some of these this is an important concept to grasp uh when you're trading these corrections we can from here um make this clear so this was our initial corrected move so we have an A, B, C or quality objective 13107 which were tested and we found buyers now from this area we can still do even though we're still technically being still being a bullish sequence we could still see another leg because this would have then create what Elliot Ravens referred to as a WXY pattern or I just refer to it more often than not as a complex correction where you get a double double correction and so when you get when you're playing these trades what you want to make sure is by the time you get halfway back through this leg through your potential C leg trade needs to be risk-free because then you protect yourself from the potential of this pattern developing so we actually get another leg to the downside like a complex correction so probably an A, B, C within there but it's still a bullish structure and we would and then we still have that a quality objective to the upside coming in at 1580 so it looks bullish now key here to really encourage the upside is taking out the trend line resistance on the closing basis and then that gives us additional confirmation and conviction in playing in playing the trade to the long side so we've got here let's take a quick look at the cryptos on the tear obviously I'm looking for a break now through the prior cycle highs here so we've got 69 when 69 285 there is a pivot sorry a Fibonacci cluster here at 74000 to 75000 so if we don't get another corrected leg here you want to really be playing the breakout for that target zone from there anticipate we correct back into these prior highs before looking for that extension then to test the projected ascending trend channel resistance up at an eye watering 81000 for bitcoin so there's some decent two-way opportunities there I prefer to be long obviously because of the current trend and here we have Ethereum this is mapping a pretty aggressive wave three here looking for this to extend up into a 261 eight extension of the wave two which would make to satisfy the technical aspects of a wave structure and we've also got then the 161 extension of this leg to the downside so we've got we've got some confluence here at the 6000 to 6100 level as long as we hold this trend channel support if we lose it then we look for a three-way move back into support here the at the that one second at the 38,538 3930 area and then still looking for that that 5,100 5300 test so there are a couple of options there to to track with Ethereum that certainly as we hold this channel we look for that 6000 objective to the outside gold broke out nicely yesterday now what we're looking for with gold is a two-day close through the the break the breakout level here so that was our breakout yesterday and now what we're going to see closed above it yesterday another close that gives us technical confirmation to play a pullback back into this support zone here maybe we're going to recheck if the trend line resistance from above but then we can re-engage confidently on the long side certainly thinking about a test of 1918 let's just see what we've got here in terms of the quality objective so this swing this is that swing yeah so we've gotten the quality objective there and yeah so 1920 will be the next target if we get this second daily close through here first pullback is going to be a buy and we're going to be targeting and move up into that that projected resistance zone what else are we going to cover here just quickly look at a couple of these antipodeans the Aussie looking for a test here of the trend line support 7240s and what we ideally like to see is that test coincide with the equity indexes testing their support zones and then we can see another leg to the upside in the Aussie similar story here in the Kiwi let's just draw in the trend line maybe a slightly deeper pullback here in terms of the Kiwi but again any tests into this trend line support should offer an opportunity on the long side coinciding with the dollar index topping out as as I highlighted earlier let's take a look at a couple of these yens quickly Swiss yen traded up into that pivot and and held it so Swiss yen now has the potential to trade down into 122.50 the prior highs here and then that would offer an opportunity to play the long side again in the Swiss yen so this type of pattern and then we look for a five equals one to the upside so that would be the play there in the Swiss yen making marginal new highs into that ascending trend line resistance watch it 122.50 now as we held that pivot test yesterday and we're coming off again cad yen similar setup here we've got symmetry swing support so thinking in terms of wave four equaling wave two at a minimum that will kind of seem to this 90-10 area and watching the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side looking for another hit of that trend line up towards 93-48 how we're doing for time I'm just right on the minute basically there to to conclude this guys so hopefully that gives you a flavor of what it is I'm tracking at moment certainly in terms of risk sentiment looking at these equity indexes put in a wave four low and then that should coincide with the dollar reaching putting in at least an interim high and then we should see corrections in terms of we should see the advance in terms of risk effects pairs euro sterling Aussie and and the Kiwi are on so I'm watching and and we're looking for a second day clothes now in gold above that trend line and then we look to play the first pullback on the long side so that concludes the presentation are there any questions you can either type them into the chat box or you can there's a Q&A box as well and equally if you don't have a question it's just as useful if you type an N in the chat box I encourage you all to check out the tick mill futures group Facebook group the clothes group there you just send a membership request and I'll add you in and like I say for those that are interested in more active training in terms of the S&P you can join me in the telegram group or you do read the requirement there is that you have a tick mill funded futures account any questions no okay I'll take the silence as indicative that I've done a fair job of explaining this stuff I'll let I'll wrap this session up here hope to see you in the strategy groups if not we'll reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much and I hope this comes