 Welcome to Tickmail weekly market outlook for week event seeing the 11th of January with me Patrick Munalyn. Next week promises plenty of fireworks as most of the global market attention will be centered upon U.S. developments. They will include stimulus plans, freshened Fed guidance, monitoring COVID-19 cases and restrictions plus a few macro hits along the way. In addition there may be further impeachment developments as a Reuters Ipsos poll shows that 57% of Americans want Trump to be impeached. Though based on the popular vote during the election that may imply that only a slim minority of Republican voters support such a step. Which is likely to guide the Senate's GOP members against driving the requiring supermajority. Still the rhetoric may be rather loud. President Elect Joe Biden has guided that he will announce the outlines of a stimulus plan on Thursday. Biden has guided that the price tag will be high and in the trillions and is expected to include plans for a $2,000 stimulus checks. More generous unemployment assistance and enhanced aid to city and state governments. On the same day, Fed Chair Powell will speak in a fluid conversation format at the Princeton University event. He's likely to generally reinforce the more upbeat take offered by Vice Chair Clarida and the verbal remarks. But he may have greater sense of Biden's fiscal plans by then so worth paying attention to. Wednesday's CPI inflation figures could bring out marginally higher pressure in terms of both headline and core ex food and energy measures. Friday's retail sales will cover off the rest of the holiday shopping season when December's figures land. Other releases will include the jobs job opening that probably softened released on Tuesday. Wednesday's base book of regional conditions and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Friday brings out a likely gain in industrial production and particularly manufacturing output after ISM manufacturing recently surprised higher. As well as the Empire Gage to start off another month for manufacturing surveys and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment reading plus producer prices for December. From a technical perspective, the dollar index track through to complete a potential interim five wave cycle at the 89-18 low. Now looking for a three wave corrected pattern to ideally test this 91 area where I've been watching for bearish reversal patterns to re-engage the dollar on the downside. Looking for a test of the 88 handle. Only at this stage a move back through 92 would suggest a broader corrected phase is in play. In the Eurozone, the publication of the minutes of the ECB's December meeting on Thursday could provide further clues on the monetary policy outlook. That meeting saw an expansion of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme or PEP to 1.85 trillion euros. While downside risks were described as less pronounced. Still uncertainty about the outlook remains high with the containment measures in the near term looking to be in place for longer than anticipated. Next week on Thursday we will get as long with the European Central Bank meeting minutes. We also get the first estimate of German fourth quarter GDP growth as regards the minutes. It will be interesting to see how the broad consensus on the measures taken versus opposing views are communicated to the market as for German GDP growth. Strong monthly data up to now despite the lockdown since November and technical factors like a possible reversal of the inventory reduction in the second quarter and third quarter have opened the door for a positive surprise. Currently market expectations for fourth quarter growth to come in around minus 0.5% quarter on quarter. So from a technical perspective, the euro dollars traded just shy of the measured move objective I was looking at at 1.2378 and we did get a bearish reversal pattern confirmed on Friday now looking for a test of the monthly pivot down to 1.2151 as the first wave of the correction completes. And then I'll be looking for a third wave to ultimately get us down to test into this 1.2050 to 1.20 area before I anticipate that bulls will look to reengage on the long side and I'll be looking for a move higher. Ultimately looking for a test of the 1.28 area later this month or early next month. In terms of the UK and the pound, the pound has been weighed at the back end of last week by speculation in the markets that UK interest rates could be reduced from the current 0.01 level into negative territory. Financial markets are currently pricing in a move to minus 0.1% by August. That speculation means that attention will be on speeches by NPC members next week. Previously, Toronto has indicated her openness to supporting a cousin interest rates below 0, which would more likely stimulate the economy if mitigating measures such as tiering are introduced to offset potential negative effects on the profitability of financial institutions. Toronto is scheduled to speak about international evidence on negative interest rates on Monday, while Ben Braubin speaks on COVID and the composition of spending on Tuesday. Official UK November GDP data will be released on Friday. Although backward looking, figures will reveal the extent to which the second national lockdown in England affected activity during the month. Markets look intensively at the forecast of month-on-month decline of minus 4%, with weakness concentrated in services, activity as pubs, restaurants, gyms and non-essential shops closed. While the fall is predicted to be considerably less than during the first lockdown and activity in December is likely to have picked up as restrictions were eased, negative growth is still expected for the quarter as a whole, especially as a third national lockdown has been introduced in the UK. From a technical perspective, looking for sterling to pull back to test the monthly pivot to the 135 area could see bulls step back in here to make a charge to test the above the 138 area. However, if we don't get any bullish reversal patterns in around this 135, then look for a deeper correction back into ascending trend line support to the 133 area before bulls will once again try and pick up the ball and make a charge at the 138 level. Very sparse data calendar in Japan next week, with the only release of interest being Monday's update from the Ministry of Finance on the Japanese current account with the market sensing and near 100 billion yen decline from December's print. From a technical perspective, Dolly En is attempting to make a recovery and has broken through the monthly pivot. Any pullbacks now into the 103 area that find support would suggest that we're in a three-way corrected pattern to ultimately test descending trend line resistance to 104.50. From here, I'd certainly be watching for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions targeting a move to test the 101.20. At this stage, only a breach through the 104.50 and 105 would suggest that we could be looking at a more sustained corrected phase. Finally, down under in Australia, the only release of note will be the release of retail sales on Monday with the data expected to demonstrate a continued recovery and consumer appetite. Also noteworthy with respect to the Aussie dollar is China's inflation update for December, which will be released also at the start of the week. It could showcase the first bottoming evidence since diving into freefall after July. The country will also update monthly aggregate financing and trade figures with the PBOC is likely to keep the one year medium term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.95%. From a technical perspective, Australian dollar traded into that 78 area referencing the daily market outlook as a level from which a measured move that we could see a pause and a potential corrected phase here. So I'd be looking for a three-way pullback now in the Australian dollar to test back into ascending trend line support at the 75 level from here. Certainly watching for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions targeting the 80 level as discussed in Thursday's live market analysis session. You can catch that video on the Tick Mill blog and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week menacing the 11th of January. Be sure to join me on Thursday if you can for weekly live market and trade analysis session 1pm UK time. Thanks very much and have a great week.