 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. This is Thursday, the 22nd of February, and wow, what a move we've just seen in Nvidia after that spectacular announcement of earnings, etc., etc. It's soaring up 98 points. Let's see, it's trading at 773.24. Can it hold? I want to go through a bunch of things right now. Let me do this for a moment here, and if you don't mind, there you are. The Dow right now is up 310.389.23. My contention is that the 39,000 level will be strong resistance, and that the whole area of 38,900 should be some kind of a barrier. We're going to see if that's the case. I've got it in a leg, E in the Dow daily. I'm going to go through the overview in a moment, but let me just finish this. The weekly chart extended that leg B, so this is still very bullish because what we're talking about is that the weekly chart and the monthly charts, the tacticals are strong, and that's your larger tide. On the shorter term, what we are looking at is, I'm just checking to see if there are any questions coming in. The shorter term, we're getting a little toppy in the sense that the technicals, for me, like the McDean, the stochastic have been pulling back, but the most important thing is, I'm going to just do this right now. I did it the other day, yesterday I did it, and I'm going to do it again. Look, this is the Dow INDU, and there's the nine-period exponential moving average. You can see it in this chart, and you can see the unbalanced volume is weakening a little bit, but you can see that the nine-period moving average is still green, that's nine is green, the black is the 14-period moving average, it changes to pink when it goes negative like it was back here in November before that, November the 3rd, turn around to the positive side. However, what we are looking at is, as long as the nine is over the 14, I'll call this the indicator of last resort, that's besides the fact that within the shorter term, I might be looking for some traders within my subscription service, the opening call, who are looking too short to do some other things that pertain to the shorter term, and you can't get an intermediate term move until the shorter term actually turns around, and let me just do this here. So, within that context, what we are looking at is, the unbalanced volume is just suggesting that with the MACD and the stochastic, that there is some kind of a pullback, and within that, the actual three instruments that we are looking at here are technical tools, the nine, the 14, and the unbalanced volume. This is just hinting that there is going to be some kind of a pullback, and it could be coming fairly soon. Let's go to the S&P, the same thing. S&P, the cards bounced above the nine-period moving average, and this is a much better chart-looking chart now. It wasn't yesterday, but now it is, with that big move up, up 77 and 5,059. You can see the unbalanced volume did make a little double top and then turned around, but as long as this is holding well, I have to consider that that is still a big positive. The QQQ was very negative if today, forget about Nvidia, but today was, in fact, some kind of a turnaround session in the sense that you are looking at, oh, I put it, let me just do this, yes. In the sense that you are looking at, not the longer-term picture, but the very short-term picture, then what we're looking at is the, I keep moving this around, I'm sorry, just I got interrupted here, train of thought, let's just get back again. So the QQQ is already what I wanted to show you. This is still a peak C, unless by Friday we go about 439.14, go to 439.15, by tomorrow at four o'clock, that extends legs C in the weekly chart. So it's a little further ahead than the Dow on the S&P in the weekly chart, just in terms of the denomination and Chapman wave methodology, but that is still very positive, and even the 9-period moving average. Yesterday it looked that if today, forget about Nvidia, if there wasn't Nvidia News, it looked to me like there was a really good chance that today we'd get a pink. The 9-period moving average would go under the 14-period moving average, turn pink. And that would say very short term, we've got a cell signal. We haven't, I mentioned this for the last couple of days, we don't even have a cell signal in the Dow or the S&P. We were very close to it in the QQQ, but now you've got this huge move up. Let's go to the next thing, which I wanted to look at now. We've got a little more time is the SMHs. The semiconductor index trading at an all-time high as we speak at 209.26. I'm calling this a G, but because of the 9-period moving average extending like this, the magnet is kind of weak. The stochastic is weakish at 68, the on-balance volume is pulling back. You can see this little gray line here, that's the relative strength index is not that strong. And all I can say is that within the context of what I was looking at yesterday, and I just have to go right now, I shouldn't do this during the show, but I did. And I'm going to go to... Within the context of everything we're looking at, the... I can't believe this. I have to consider this as an alternate count. Yes, it's a G, I'm putting in the G, but the type of strength we're looking at says, just be ready that it could be a G slash B. I find that hard to believe, but I have to take it at that. And because of that, I'm just looking at this and saying, based on the strength of the weekly chart, I could call this an alternate count, E slash A. I don't want to do that right now, no need to. Let's just see where this goes. But the technicals are really strong. And I just... I cannot fight the technicals, although, in a sense, the positions that we've just taken for a trade said that maybe we are starting to fight a little bit, and the most important thing is if I did nothing else, as I did with Microsoft, where I said, we're long from 338, we've had trades in between with success, I almost said, do I go for a shorter term, another short term trade to add to our trading position, to add to our core position and have another trading position? Yes, and I thought, what if we actually do the QQQs, do turn down tomorrow? That won't be very good. So it didn't do anything, so we're still long and it had a really strong early morning balance. It hit 412.83, it's trading at 410.32 up 8. It had an all-time high with a channel wave 2 bar reversal. We were fortunate in the last move up. We got out at 420.20, the all-time high. That day was 420.82, so we took profits there. But in the meet and with that trading position, we're out of there. But this is just telling me that we started to become quite sharpie, and I'm going to go through a bunch of things in a moment to show you what I mean. And as I'm going, I remember ARM, we saw that round number was 164 about two weeks ago, and then it plunged to 117. Round number was low, and now we're looking at it's trading at 134 with a round number of 132.00. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. 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So I want to say arm holdings, PLC, the semi is a licensing company. I had a really strong move up early this morning and so far it's holding it. It's at 136.21. If it takes out 131 as key support any time today, that'll be a negative and I'll give you all of these. I'll give you Nvidia. What would happen if later in the day there is some kind of a turnaround? I went through all the Nvidia earnings dates and on each one they made a peak high and then pull back for a little bit after that. So I don't know if that's going to happen here but I'm looking at this, I'm looking for round numbers it made. I'm always looking for round numbers because it's always very telling what happens after that. Let's see if there's a round number here. Well, let's see if it's a high. 7.9.00 All-time high round number. Somebody bought that like one, was it 146 in arm and then they saw it was a 164 and then saw it plunge to the 110 area. Well, this is 7.79. We're watching closely. I think it's going to be taken out because it's it just got taken out but someone was playing round number 7.79.00 I'm going to be watching this very closely but that's not to say that Nvidia is the one that's going to really tank. This is all the focus is going to be on Nvidia and then it's going to be on all the semiconductors because surely they're going to come in full blast trying to take some of the business from Nvidia. He has advanced micro devices trading at 179.92 up 15 Look at this kind of rectangle formation here. Will it break out to the 184.92 level which is the all-time high just a couple of weeks ago. This is pretty good action. Leg B, peak B in the weekly chart. We'll try for a leg C if it goes to 184.93. Let's look at applied materials. AMAT, big move up, up 10 at 200.32. Looking at this weekly chart, leg E, leg D in the monthly chart. Very good action. Let's look at Marvell. Marvell is one of the quieter ones most people don't talk about but it's done very nicely. Marvell Technologies 69.52 up 4. So this is what I would draw. I drew it in one of the charts this morning. Was it yesterday? I think it was the future. That's right. So there it is. You've got yourself a forming X formation. We're going to see if it's able to get to the 72s. Marvell had an all-time high back in December of 2021. In the 93s, it comes down to the 30, what was that, 37 area? Let me just give you the exact number. It comes down to 33.73. In January of 2023, and now it's in leg C in the monthly chart, peak C in the weekly, and this is a peak D and it's just kind of, it's in a, you can call it kind of a down channel. So we'll see where this can go to. So I don't want to go through them all. I'm just saying that this is going to be very important because you're going to find that some of the some of the semiconductor companies have to morph a little bit. They have to change what they do. What is Intel doing? That has been the laggard for so long. Whoa, down 30 cents in 43.16. I guess they're not going to be a challenge to to NVIDIA. All right. Now let's get back to our story. I want you to show you something else. A question came in about the XLF. So the XLF is the financials. Very nice rally here. So if this is a peak F right here, then this can be a brand new look right there. Now we've got a new move up and A, B, C, D, a leg E in the daily. This has to be an alternate count. G, stash, C in the weekly. So all of this is really nice new yearly recovery high. I wanted that. That was really important to see that the XLF, the financials independently of anything else in the market was holding well because if you can get the financials to be moving strongly, that to me is key to the integrity of the market. I love to see that. But I also wanted to see the regionals start to move higher and they've been lagging terribly. Let me look at KRE. That is the ETF. This is KRE is the S&P regional banking ETF. Trading up 13 cents at 48.14. Stuck on that 200 period of exponential moving average. This is very much like the semiconductors where, yep, they're doing well, but you've got an incredible leader. So you've got JPMorgan in the multinationals in the money center banks, all time high as we speak at 182.44. Leg C in the monthly. Leg C in the weekly. Leg E, I'm calling it right now, in the daily. And that's leading. We've got Bank of America, which we especially chose because it wasn't lagged, but it could have a really good percentage movement if it really kicks in gear. Right now it's up 22 cents at 33.92. It's kind of been struggling, but it's really the weekly has to push away from the 200 period moving average. I wanted to also go through this. So that KRE is lagging. Now, I would prefer to find a leader in the KRE, a regional bank in the middle price range around about the 40s, maybe 35 to 42. Maybe someone will help me. Just give me a yell. One that I've always looked at, which I believe is Brookline Bank. Brookline Bank. Oh, I had it all notated recently, and now I must have lost it. Yeah, it's lagging. It's at 50. This is not BR. This is BlackRock. BRKL. I think that's it. Yeah, that's it. Oh, man, not looking good at all. These regionals, and if the regionals are going to fail, that's your mom and pop store. They're not really, but I'm saying that's really, that's part of the infrastructure of each town and village. So all I can say is I was asked about the KRE, and all I'm going to tell you is that as a laggard, you've got a perfect laggard here because wow, is this lagging? But I don't see strength yet. If you don't mind, I'm going to say at 48, I know it's only a dollar, a dollar and a quarter. I'm going to say, I'd rather be looking at it, and I don't like it when it does it that quickly. But if in the next two, three days, it's able to, it doesn't even, now I'm going to say it has to close. Usually I say it doesn't have to close, just as to start leg E at 49.54. Peak B was at 49.53. Gosh, yeah, I can't give you anything right now. I can just say that I'd prefer to buy strength, and I would probably, I'd sacrifice a point to actually start a position at 49.54. That's not ideal. Perhaps if the general market is holding well, and the KRE is getting to maybe even just over this high of the 20th, which is at 48.72. Yeah, 48.73. I'd start a little position at 48.73. I wouldn't add or anything until you've got the proof of the putting, and that isn't there yet. Baselchamp and Tiger Technicians are, I want to look at the market over there as soon as I return, the smaller picture and the bigger picture. Where do I stand and what are we looking at? Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. 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TFNN Educating Investors The round numbers here on Avagio, which is Broadcom, trading at an all-time high right now at $1297, hit $1390, $1304.20, had all these round numbers. So the thing about the round numbers is that you need to look back. You can't, you have to wait a while to see what was the implication. Is this like a huge cloud that sits there and then in March, say middle of March, taking at $1,100 or $1,050 and all of these become very strong resistance levels. I can't say right now other than to put this in context and say it's an all-time high leg in the weekly chart. This is still acting really well, but you can see this consolidation here. They needed this NVIDIA announcement to really change from an arch formation taking out the 1,200 support to running like it is. So that's really important. Okay, so the overview picture is this. In the context of the market, because we have long positions in the Dow from March of 2020 and then also the law of October of 2022, that core position, I don't want to change that under any circumstances until we get to a point where I'm looking at the market and I'm talking about some formation of like a Coda where you've already got one announcement of the United States' tallest bull thing being built in. What did I say? It was Oklahoma City, something like that. All these things have to come apart. You need to see the IAI, which is actually acting very well right now. The IShares Broker Dealer ETF, we are long from 45 way back in 2020. I should have been adding here, but I thought we'd be pulling back a little bit more. So this is acting very nicely. 109.40 was the high on the 29th of December. 109.08 so far is the high. This is acting very nicely until this is streaming in the 150s or 160s and you've got Schwab moving from where it is right now at 64 and not acting all that great, really up in the 120 area almost doubling from here. Then I'm going to say to you, wow, we are making some kind of a top that is probably going to be history. We don't even close to that. So in that context, the overall big movement of the market I still like. Now I'll go back to the doubt just to say this is what I'm using just from the benchmark as we were talking is that the monthly chart is at leg C. We aren't close to a top until at least a D and go higher, but D is where you start to look at something way more important and it's in C. It's only in a B in the weekly chart. That still has to go to at least a D and then you've got to be careful. The daily chart is rallying. We got taken out of a very short of trading positions. This was almost like an insurance policy, but it was a trade and we got taken out 209.40 to 209. 209.39 to 209.00 Not a big deal. A couple of percentage points. And we still have the long position. So if you're in that whole mix, then this is just part of it and insurance policy that you wanted. But I have been anticipating, especially with those round numbers, that it's telling us that going into, I would say this phase of the up move, we're starting to get toppy in a sense that I haven't seen this kind of top in this. If I'm looking at round numbers as a sign of top in this for a long time, it's just the number of them. It's, you know, even remember Lily, we were looking at the other day and I said, wow, Lily round number high. What is today? Today is trading up 24, 770 round numbers here. But yesterday, oh, this morning, it had a 790 round number. Was that yesterday or when was it? Oh, there it is. Okay. So it wasn't, it was at the open. Oh, it was the open after it made the 790, 794.47 all-time high. So it's under the 790. That was over there. I just, I don't even know where to put these numbers. I don't usually like to mess things up like this, but it's become so important. So I'm looking at this and I'm thinking when fund managers, when fund managers are so determined either to exit or to enter, it is part of round number hysteria. Because why else would you do that? Just because you've got to get it right at that moment. Otherwise you'd think it through and say, I want to name a number that probably has some fractional aspect to it, 790.23 or whatever it is. Okay. So that just says to me, it's just a hint to say it's more than a hint because so many of them have had it. I might find that this is going to be a new experience completely and that I'm going to have to treat this as a consolidation with round numbers that goes to even higher highs. But I need a few weeks because it's on a dating basis and I'm looking at it. So I need a few weeks. So only back in, when we get to like March, what's the March, the second full week of March will be, yeah, March the 11th, the week of the 11th to the 15th. Let's see what happens at that particular point. So I'm watching them. Okay. So where am I? On the Dow, because we got taken out of that short position, we're still now only long. All our positions are long. We have one short position at this particular on an index and that is to see whether later in the day, we don't start to pull back and have a week session on Friday. This is just the thinking right now because of this flurry of activity or short covering, et cetera. You have to wait for later on. So that means on the short term position, I'm looking for some kind of topping action, but we haven't, we're only acting on it in trading positions. Other than that, if you look at the S&P, I have to admit that, I don't yet have a signal. Yes, we do have a short position, but so far, I have to call this an F, but we're not looking at anything failing. It'll fail if this gap gets full by next Tuesday or Wednesday, in other words, next week sometime, but other than that, so far this is really good action. Within the weekly charts, as I've said for ages, the weekly charts are fabulous and the monthly charts are fabulous. I'm just trying to do a timing for some kind of short-term pullback and it'll look like, up until about three o'clock yesterday, it'll look like, hey, this just might work, but it didn't work, obviously, with that huge earnings report. Okay, so I wanted to cover that. That's not to say that I won't attempt if I see the conditions or apt, I might attempt it again, but in the meantime, I have to work out, we have long positions. So we have a long, for instance, we are along the AIQ. The AIQ is the Global X Artificial Intelligence. Look, yesterday it was so close, if today was another week session, that nine-period moving average would probably have gotten very close to turning down. So we've been along for a while, it's trading up 80 cents at 32.96. This is Global X Artificial Intelligence, ETF, I have to tell you, I'm shockingly disappointed in this particular ETF because all that talk about AI, AI, and yet the index itself, of course, because it has a lot of laggards, it's a composite. But look at this, it's, even in the left side, right side price time match, it's been struggling to get to the high that was made back in the week of the 19th of November of 33.33. And today's high is 33.02. I'll be back in a moment, down to 272. I'll be back in a minute. I'll be back in a minute. TfNN, Educating Investors. For how long? 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So, yeah. So, we have Long's, we have Bank of America, we have this AI, we have stocks in the cannabis area, we have Microsoft, and it's others, but most importantly what we are looking at here is that on the short side, if there's going to be a turnaround, today's action couldn't, in fact, spell trouble if we close towards the low of the day. We don't have to go negative or anything like that, but we'll see what happens if there is some kind of a turn towards the end of the day where we're looking at the E-mini, let's just go to that right now, so I'll go to Draw of King in a minute. Yes, there we go. So, the E-mini has gone to a lag F in the daily chart, could be an alternate count because the 90 is still strong, but then MACD still hasn't turned positive yet, and so then the stochastic is under 80% and 72%. So, this is going to be very important, but to get that nine period moving average negative, you'd have to see the E-mini is the same with the S&P. Probably trading at 49.30, it's at 5,072, it's about 120 points lower. I just don't know what's going to do it, other than today's a blow-off top of some sort, and if that's the case then we have to be considering that within the context of all the different aspects that we're looking at, and that has to include the round numbers, there will be not just a sudden pullback, it'll be a pullback where we make lower highs and lower lows, and it goes on for a little while. You can see here Caterpillar has automatic resistance right there, there's a chap in the way with automatic resistance and support levels. So, DKNG was the question, and you can see 39.92 is a key support level, 45.32 was an automated resistance level. Let's go to the real thing here. We've got DKNG trading down 6 cents at 40.69. This had a bunch of round numbers and I'm looking at this at a peak E and it seems to me and I've got it as a leg C in the weekly chart that, and I said I was asked about this yesterday the day before, I said 40 to 39 is the area that I'm looking at as key support. If it starts to take that out, it means that Draftings is going to have a little bit more of a pullback. We are long this position from lower down and all I can say is that the weekly chart so for all the technicals of the weekly chart are holding very, very nicely. So, and the monthly chart is an all A and E, so that means on a notational basis we kind of have to watch it watch this closely. So, I hope that helps you and if at any point in the next going into Wednesday of this coming week if Draftings is able to even trade for more than 90 minutes in the I'll give you the number right now think 4320. 4320 area that's quite a bit of a way to go to the upside that'll be important. So, just the question came in so exactly where are you my at this particular point we're attempting to pick some kind of a top here within that that space the day is young anything can happen look the guys still up 243 was up over 300 points before the S&P still up 75 it was way more than that anything can happen but you need to see for that to happen in video which is trading at 7773 that I'm not expecting that that will be the benchmark of a pullback not going into Tuesday or the next day but coming into Tuesday Wednesday of next week today's low is 742 if this gets anywhere close to 752 to 748 over the next I'd say in the next few days going into Tuesday Wednesday I think that you're seeing some kind of top-ish action right now and should be pulling back and if that pulls back it'll affect a lot of other areas question about the TLT the TLT as I read it now this is this is subject to because you've got the TLT and you've got the US bonds and they have pretty much the same patterns so as I'm looking at it I don't see I don't see a turnaround to the upside that is meaningful meaning that at 92.66 right now to me it won't be meaningful unless it's like two or three days trading the 93.80 to 94.20 area if that happens finally we'll start to see yields start to come down a little bit I hope that answers the question in the den and then YouTube I think there was a question here someone said Pat congratulations Pat you had an objective of 977 in Nvidia let me see what the high is here 77 80.85 it just surpassed that by a fraction a couple of things I want to look at right now and where was the question came in here I wrote it down could I look at natural gas so natural gas is trading down off the high of the day but it's still up just a fraction 1.783 look at UNG gives a better picture that's under yesterday's low I just I don't know what it is that's going to get this natural gas to really move to the upside I don't I don't mean just bounce I mean to move to the upside to go into the UNG at 15.89 to actually be trading in the $19 to $20 area I just don't know what it's going to take because we're almost running out of time in terms of the winter right and wow here in the Boston area I don't want to talk so I'm not going to say anything but you can you can imagine what I was about to say alright so within that context I'm also going to say that the what was the next question PANW so PANW is Palo Alto made a peak D at 380.88 and Australia now 271 under the 200 period yesterday went under the 200 period moving average today it's above the 200 period moving average of 270 up 8 almost 9 points but what's really important about this is you've got a peak F cell signal I don't know it's a cell mode in the dating now by Friday I'm pretty sure I'm going to have to call this a cell mode and this was one of the strongest Palo Alto networks and that's what I was saying yesterday when I was discussing this it's not possible that you have such a divergence even within the tech group that you can have not just a pullback in hack which is the cyber security ETF from the 67 down to the 60 level it's trading now up to $20 60.43 but the diversity of action in areas that you would think go together is quite extraordinary actually all right so Amat lost it's opening price big in my opinion we give it stays below for a couple of bars which is starting to sing it's a gap full on the table all right well we'll see what happens there so here we go I won so what I'm looking at here is areas that are not the general market area in other words the areas for instance look the here we go this is the DBA the agricultural fund why is that I'll be back and remember it's time to protect and grow your money with insight you can trust join us live Monday through Friday during market hours for exclusive content that moves with the markets at TFNN we bring the trading floor to you our season hosts are here to answer your calls and questions live on the air 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other day and I mentioned to subscribers there were two of them Mars was one the mosaic company phosphates a nice move up up $1.73 at 5.7% today at 31.95 and there's another one that we actually are in in the oil seed area and I think that that's going to be very important in terms of the rotation can be rotated remember I mentioned just as we were going to break the DBA and yet the the grains are doing kind of lousy and yet look at this the DBA is holding very well that's a DBA of gold for fun so I think there's going to be a chance to be doing some moving around in different sectors adding to the long side but in different sectors so with that said I'm going to hand you over to Steve Rose check that out my daily newsletter and have a wonderful rest of the day