 Hello everyone. Welcome to another International Relations Capsule for the Shankar IAS Academy. Today we are going to discuss the recent elections in Turkey. This was an important election because the present president Erdogan, I think we have to note the pronunciation. Even though it is written as Erdogan, it is pronounced in Turkish as Erdogan it seems. I don't know if I'm correct, but the Turkish pronunciation one has to learn. So he is in Turkish, he is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that is the name. But in English of course everybody writes it as Erdogan. So this is his third term and unexpectedly he ran into difficulties in the early voting. It was believed that he would win the election and he has been in power for the last 20 years, a long time as Prime Minister and this is the third time as president. So he's an important international figure and his election was considered important, particularly because he was in some difficulties on account of various things. First of all, his own economic policies were not very much acceptable to the people and there was an earthquake where about 50,000 people died and the way he handled it was not fully appreciated by the people. And probably this is for these reasons that he did not win the election in the first round. So he had to then go to what is called a runoff election, but in the runoff voting he won with a big majority. In fact, he got 52% of the votes. So this was being watched by the entire international community because Turkey is an important country, but his own ways, he's increasingly non-democratic in certain ways and his policies were not widely appreciated. And also, he, even though he is a member of NATO, but he has had his special positions on various issues. So what happened was, in fact, today the President of the United States congratulated Edouan and immediately he raised an issue. Both of them had two issues to talk about. Edouan said, what happened to my F-16 aircraft? He has been trying to buy F-16 aircraft under the NATO arrangements from Turkey and that is being delayed. He's very much irritated by that. So the first thing he asked the President of the United States was that, how about my F-16 aircraft? But in reply, the President, though he was not negative about it, but he said, how about the membership of Sweden in NATO? So this is an issue and immediately, as soon as he was elected, both these were projected. And the briefing from the White House indicated that there were these two interlinked issues. So unless Turkey agrees to the membership of Sweden, it looks as though the United States will not be willing to provide F-16 to Turkey. So it's a live kind of debate. And both of them agree to discuss this further. So obviously, you can see some kind of tension there. But the fact that he has been elected now is a reality. And now he will be President for five years, that is 2028. And that will make about 30 years as top authority in Turkey. And so his influence is very great. And Turkish location between Asia and Europe, its religious situation. It was a secular state, but Erdogan has increasingly made it an Islamic state. He has developed links with some Islamic countries. So all these have made Erdogan a kind of valuable partner of NATO. At the same time, a bit of a problem, because he has a view which is slightly different from other NATO countries. And in the war also, the Russia-Ukraine war, he has been taking some kind of an influence position rather than supporting Ukraine entirely. So he has had exchanges with President Putin and he has been in consultation with him. So in other words, his victory is, of course, inevitable in spite of the problems that he had. He got a good majority. And despite the ongoing economic crisis and the criticism about its response to the earthquake, he has won a successful, won an acceptable majority. So he has already become the longest serving leader in the Turkish Republic, because he will be president till 2028. One thing that has caused problems for him is unorthodox fiscal policies, a depressing interest and rampant inflation, and that has affected the people. But still, he got a 50% of the runoff elections. And it obviously, it looks that the people are looking for stability over change, because some of them are not, they may have wanted to have some change in policies, et cetera. But nobody else could have provided the kind of stability that the country needs at this time. So the people seem to have preferred stability to change. And therefore, in spite of the problems, he has been able to come back to power with a comfortable majority. So he never shied away from using government funds for his personal advancement. And he was quite unorthodox in his approach to the financial situation of the country. And very in many cases, his government spent on various infrastructure development, et cetera, which the people did not appreciate. They thought he was trying to be too lavish with infrastructure development. But he also increased wages of the people and pensions to also increased. So on the whole, he has been balancing it well. On the one hand, he has these problems with some people. But at the same time, he mixes up some kind of a dictatorship with welfare. So that was the combination that he has been following. And that is why he has been able to stay in power in spite of his difference of opinion with nature. But his position in the nature is important. And that is why Sweden has not been able to become a member of NATO so far. Finland has already been admitted. And it is only Turkey and Hungary who seem to be opposing this. So that's an important aspect at this time because when NATO countries are created as against the original commitment given not to bring in many of these countries into NATO. But the present situation now, the United States is openly supporting expansion of the NATO. That is causing greater confusion in the Ukraine, Russia-Ukraine conflict. So the industrial sector, the military industrial sector in the has been developing in Turkey at a very impressive pace. And this development has been a point of pride for Turkey. And this is considered as part of the strength of the country. They have developed a very impressive military industrial complex. And that is why they want to strengthen more, acquire more planes and more lethal weapons, etc. Because Turkey is following a rather independent policy and it would like to project a kind of power in Europe itself. Because in Europe itself, Turkey is not a major country. But since it's a member of NATO, basically an Islamic country, all this adds some flavor to the advance presidency. And she is also very proud of frequently used and domestically produced drones, which has been added to the fleet, military fleet of Turkey. And that is a matter of pride for him. And he's also been a significant player on the world stage. He is always in the news. There was a coup attempt against him and was felt that he would fall. But he was able to manage very effectively. And in spite of the seriousness of the crisis, he was able to overcome it and continue as president. And that also has added a certain amount of pride and strength to him. So on the world stage, he has been very active in dealing with international issues. He has tried to develop his own Islamic group, which was not very successful. In NATO, it controls the second largest army. So it's not a small power inside NATO. And so he's considered as an indispensable, but at the same time, troublesome NATO ally, that is his stature. So NATO deals with him carefully, cautiously. And his election is impressive win, even on a run up election, has impressed everyone. And people will be keen to watch his movements in the future. So he has held up Sweden's, as I mentioned, entry into NATO and purchased a Russian missile system. I think it is like the ones that we have purchased as there's 400 missiles. And the United States does not like people to buy the missile system from Russia. And the United States was at one time threatening to veto it in some form. But in the case of Turkey, it was even more difficult because Turkey is part of NATO. So the United States would not like the Russian missile to be inducted into the NATO system in Turkey. So in fact, in the case of India, it is not there is an independent purchase that we have made. And therefore, they seem to have accepted it, even though there are some difficulties because of the current war. But in the case of Turkey, the United States was even more difficult about the missiles. So on top of it, Turkey is now out to get a US-led fighter project. And so they have been excluded from that fighter project because he has bought a Russian missile system. So one of the things that he did during the Russia-Ukraine War was to negotiate a deal with the support of the United Nations to assume shipping grain through the bulk seaports in Ukraine. Because Ukraine has been supplying grain to much of the world. And it was held up and it was creating confusion not only in the markets abroad, but also within Ukraine itself. So it was a necessity to get these grains out and he managed to do that. So and also involved with the United Nations. And that has been a success story and there was basically a good contribution that he made to the crisis in Ukraine on the count of the lack of ability to export grains. So he has been playing a very effective role in some issues relating to the war. And also he is now acceptable as a kind of mediator because he's not on one side very strongly, even though he's a NATO member. And therefore he has some flexibility in acting. But he has deep loyalty from conservative and religious supporters. And that is his strength. First is military strength, which is impressive. And at the same time conservative and religious supporters. And he has been following a very conservative policy with regard to the social norms in that country. So though on the one hand he's been, you know, helping himself with power and also enjoying the facilities that is available to the head of state. He has very strongly supported religious sentiments. And also he has tried to build religious and Islamic linkages with like Turkey and Iran and Pakistan and so on. So this is the kind of role that he plays on women and the issue of wearing of headscarves in schools and offices etc. He has changed the rules in the sense that they are not compulsory and it has been left to the people concerned. And same is the case with trans gender rules and regulations. He has been very strict about it. And like in other parts of Europe where people are liberal about lesbians and gays etc. Their behavior in society. So here he is very conservative about it. And that has pleased a large number of people in his own country. One other thing he did which created waves around the world was the conversion of the famous Istanbul's cathedral, Kegia Sofia into a mosque after many years. So it was a museum for decades and he very strongly intervened and turned it into a mosque. And this was this created a lot of reactions around the world but he has not conceded that. And so it is not a museum anymore. It is a serving mosque. And as I mentioned also this question of the LG, the lesbian and gay movement. And because he considers that a threat to the traditional family loyalties etc. So there again he has a position slightly different from other countries in Europe. And his taken total control of the media. And that is not even a pretense of free speech. And generally it's also believed that even though elections went through the normal procedures, normally certification is that, you know, this determination is made normally whether an election is free and fair. So but the assessment made by the observers is that elections were free but not fair in the sense that he seems to have manipulated voting situation or counting various things. So it is not a clean sheet that he has been given says that it is a free election but not fair. Of course the opposition leader was quite strong and he had opposed the president's economic policies and he stressed the importance of democracy in Turkey. But it had its supporters and but at the same time he was able to win the elections. And on human rights his record is not particularly good because he has been oppressing and suppressing any kind of difference of opinion. And also in fighting terrorism he has been very active and he has been dealing with what he considers terrorism in means of the people or his government has been very tough. So on the trappings of democracy he is not doing very well but he is able to sustain a different policy all through because of one hand his firmness dealing with the issues. On the other hand the kind of popularity that he has been able to win as a result of his support to the conservatives in the country. So these are the significant developments and on his foreign policy he has declared that the foreign policy of Turkey is to make friends not enemies. So in the sense that he is willing to adjust and accept diversity in the NATO or in other bodies and he still continues to have good relations with its neighbors and other countries. The traditional difference and problems between Turkey and Greece everyone has been able to make a contribution. He visited Greece and Cyprus issue still remains and Turkey is not in favor of Cyprus as yet and there is a proposal for division of Cyprus etc. This issue is as old as the United Nations itself and still there are difficulties in that but still he visited Greece and tried to bring about some understanding. Because the poor attempt I mentioned in 2016 and he declared a state of emergency which still seems to be in existence and he has tried to bring about further agreements among the people and the very fact that he survived the quiet and was a contribute or was a tribute to his leadership. So and he has fought against you know the dissidents and on the whole he has been a successful president. There is a question about it. He may not fit into the norms that are generally acceptable in a democracy and a secular state which it was but he has been able to hold his position with this diversity and that has been his success. In the Ukraine-Russia conflict he has always acted as a kind of peacemaker and he has that strength because he is in NATO and at the same time he is not completely critical or condemnatory about this. So this is the background of the elections and once he takes over we will see more developments in this area but generally it is believed that his presidency will provide some stability to a country. He may be able to resolve the economic problems and also resolve the issue of Sweden's membership of NATO and all these will be once he has settled down as president for the third term which is expected that he will do business with the United States and others and that is what we saw in this telephone poll yesterday when both of them raised the basic issues in the first congratulatory conversation itself and so they are very keen to get each other understand each other's point of view. So on the whole this is a better result than a new person coming into power and that would have created very many difficulties not only for Turkey but also NATO. So they say you know a kind of non-devil is better than a non-angel they say. So it is that kind of way that the people have accepted him and voted for him and so on the whole I think it is a good development from the perspective of Europe and the present conflict situation because as far as the Korean War is concerned there is no Indian site as not even in a ceasefire and NATO is not interested in a ceasefire because they feel that if there is a ceasefire that will enable Putin's forces to regroup themselves and maybe fight a more harsh war. So there there is no hope as of now but the expectation still holds that the G-20 meeting in September the summit might throw some new light on this issue but as of now the matter is completely out of control and there are accusations that Ukraine has been using drones against Russia that's been considered a very serious matter although it is not established that they were the ones who launched those drones. So a slight improvement, a slight ray of hope in the situation in Turkey is what I would call Mr. Duane's election. Thank you very much.