 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Given the number of pretty bad prime time games We've had so far this year the fact that we get both the Bengals and the Ravens and the chiefs and the Eagles in prime time for week Number 11 is a true blessing We're gonna talk about both those games talk about other key games across week 11 from a betting perspective and let you know What Ed Feng's number say about week 11 relative to the lines at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Saunders I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday By dr. Ed Feng you can find his work at the power link comm check him out on Twitter at the power rank Ed Pretty spicy island games coming up this weekend. How you doing today? I'm doing great. I mean really looking forward to this Thursday night game Especially after whatever was it last week. It was a snoozer. Yeah I mean the Sunday night game was awful. Yeah, so thank you NFL for not flexing that one out Jets and Raiders Conspiracy theory on that. Yeah, if you will they had a pre-recorded segment with the actor from Heidi and It was like sets the Heidi game back in the day when they switched off of jets Raiders to show Heidi I Think so NBC like contacted the actor who played Heidi and had a record like this intro and I was like Is that why this game didn't get flexed? They could actually use this clearly pre-recorded intro thing because I was like There's no reason for them to not swap off that game and yet they chose to leave it I was like, I don't think that was the reason but like it did creep into my mind at least is what I would say But Zach Wilson, I mean anytime you can show Zach Wilson versus Aiden O'Connell in primetime Ed You know you got to do it, right? But Zach Wilson, I mean Zach Wilson is Is a new standard for low did the Jets consider hiring the Heidi actor as a quarterback instead? That's a workaround. They could have just done that as opposed to playing the canned intro true Carson Wentz the play quarterback that might have worked a little bit better They've got touchdown Trevor Simeon Ed what could they possibly need Carson Wentz for touchdown Trevor or Carson Wentz They should an idea they should I agree free my guy Unleash the beast once again get it back in the saddle for the Jets Luckily, I guess I thought I was gonna say we're not talking Jets David We are the Jets bills game is in is a game We're discussing later on in large part because it's a Muslim game for the bills and Ed I'm way off market for that game. So I'm I selfishly have it in there so I can ask you about your thoughts in that game We'll get that one later on we're talking about briefly Bengals Ravens We will talk about cheese and Eagles as well So the actual good games are in there, too We will talk some Jets bills to get the bills discussion out of the way But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We have primetime Tom for the Thursday night game already posted Tom broke down props for Bengals versus Ravens That's right here in the covering the spread podcast feed You can also find that on fandal TV plus to get fandal TV plus go to fandal comm is slash watch you can also find that game Or find these shows on the fandal YouTube page as well fandal comm or YouTube comm is slash fandal to get to all of those Tomorrow JJ Zachary Smith with us to break down NFL week 11 player prompts our college football show with Ed It's up as well in the same podcast eat score early This NFL season with fandal America's number one sports book right now new customers get $150 and bonus bet any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fandal There is no better time to get in on the action. The app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more So visit fandal and kickoff the NFL season fandal official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president Select states fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas dark as you know, LLC First online real money wager only $5 pregame moneyline wager required $10 first deposit acquired bonus issued is now a drop of bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt See terms at sportsbook dot fandal comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal comm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in, Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 Or visit ccpg.org slash jack netiquette 1 809 with an indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit ksgamelhills.com in, Kansas 1 8 7 7 7 7 0 stop in louisiana visit md. Gimli help that organ mariland 1 800 gambler net in west virginia 105 2 2 7 100 in wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support of massachusetts or call 1 8 7 7 a hope and why or text open y in new york Now and we typically don't discuss the thursday game here on the show because we record thursday afternoon But kind of can't ignore this game so bangles ravens Anything you like for this game on thursday night football I like watching a good game on thursday night That's certainly what I like. No, I mean this is look this is gonna be an awesome game. You have to I Mean look baltimore, you know, it's probably been the best team in the NFL this year. They certainly have been Well, I guess they did lose last week it was interesting it was like a game which you thought they were gonna run away with it, uh-huh and uh Yeah, didn't didn't quite happen and then Cincinnati Certainly playing better actually drove by The stadium while they were playing Houston last week, which was pretty interesting on my way back from Kentucky from a from a soccer tournament. Yeah, look, I mean, I Think this is gonna be a great game. I used to do a bet that I want to give out here Um, I actually like Lamar Jackson under a half interception here Lamar Jackson is one of the NFL's best at not putting the ball in dangerous positions And my research has shown that that is how you That's how you predict future interceptions. Hey, that's the same price I have it at about oh and the other thing about Lamar Jackson is that he doesn't really throw a ton of passes The market has him for about 29 and somewhere between 27 and a half and 29 and a half Even if you assume the high end I have 56% chance that he does not throw a pick So I like I like the no or under under a half Interception, what does Fandle usually post these I'm often like do they post these likes very very late? Probably I haven't checked because I don't tend to do a ton of props personally so I Don't actually know when they get posted But it tends to be later than a lot of places for the other markets at least I mean, I'm usually looking at Sunday Slate on Friday, and I never see any on Fandle, right? But it's nice that it's up right now. Yeah under a half pick is minus 114 for Lamar Jackson right now and You know Lamar is playing great. I think that makes a lot of sense I actually do kind of like the Bengals money line here. Now, this has been moving the other way because it was like as we've been recording they were plus 150 to about 10 minutes ago. They're now plus 164. So there's been some action coming in on the Raven side I also I think you justify taking the plus three and a half because I think so be a pretty tight game There's no T Higgins for the Bengals, but there's also no Ronnie Stanley for the Ravens And there's no Marlon Humphrey likely for the Ravens as well. So Injuries on both sides. So personally, I'm okay Viewing this game is pretty evenly matched So I do like Cincinnati plus three and a half the money line is plus 164 I think both those do make a lot of sense and again, this should be pretty tightly contested I think that last week kind of made us forget how high Everyone was and the market was in the Bengals just a week ago And it's not like they played bad against Texans like Texans just played really well in that game Bengals with the football still on offense. So honestly like I Think it's a pretty tight game So I'll take the points here or take the money line on the Bengal side But I do like the Lamar interception number as well Let's talk about the Sunday games right now a couple of interesting ones because they have playoff implications Even though they may not be the the most thrilling games Let's start things off here by talking about the Steelers and the Browns We got Dorian Thompson Robinson starting this game for the Browns and they're now back out to being favored by a point And a half that had been the Steelers by a point and a half earlier on on Wednesday Total is now 32 and a half and Ed I did take the over in this game not gonna lie But it's two six and three teams One of these teams is probably going to the playoffs. So how do you see this one playing out with the Sean Watson? Shelled for the Browns. I feel like there's a wide variety of outcomes that could happen in this game I think it's pretty interesting that they're gonna start DTR PJ Walker You know wasn't good But you certainly don't have the downside of throwing a rookie out there We've seen some rookies go out there. So I've done pretty well. Some have done Kind of awful Yeah, I use my market model When with without the Sean in there and you know, I have Cleveland by about one here. So not showing much value Yeah, could be a pretty ugly game, but you know defense is fun It's a great defenses. Yeah I'm hoping there's not a ton of defense personally because like I said, I did take the over like I had tweeted out How low my model had this total when it was first announced to show us out I have it there at 34.6 and so I was like, oh, it's the lowest total. I've had in my model dating Been running the model since week 13 or 15 of last year So it's not a huge sample, but like it is the lowest total I've ever had But then it was a 36 and a half at that time and it moved down four points So it crossed the point where I was like, oh, I kind of like the under it all of a sudden actually I like the over now So I did take the over that 32 and a half. I think I got minus 110. It's minus 120 at Fandall Sportsbook, but I Feel like like it's just kind of Not accounting for how much variance you can get in these games with very good defense like defense can generate points They're on they can generate short fields of the offense as well So personally, I think that 32 and a half is a bit of an overreaction like DTR in that first game against the Ravens He was awful But like he also found out he was starting Sunday morning because Deshaun Watson thought they're they thought Deshaun Watson was gonna play And all of a sudden it's like no not gonna happen and they had talked about potentially There was some beat writer talk that potentially starting Dorian Thompson Robinson Week before Deshaun came back from that injury and they're like, okay PJ Walker is kind of struggling might go DTR It's a volatile situation, but I think the volatility is good when this total is so low So honestly, I had like I kind of like the volatility here It might wind up where they just kind of play conservatively play towards the under because ANC North ANC North games have just been Awful for my model, but like I still feel like the over here is enticing given how low this number is One of the first few years that we did this podcast I remember UCLA was going to Cincinnati and I had UCLA like plus five and With the idea that you know Power five Talent was gonna overwhelm Cincinnati and that turned out to be a terrible bet and DTR with the the quarterback It was probably before he hit it's dried out there that UCLA. Maybe I'm still mad at him about that But hey props to the kid that he he's a he's he's gonna start and he's gonna start a second NFL game on Sunday Yeah, I played really well in his final year at UCLA Played one the preseason did not play well in his first start against the Ravens But we'll see if you can bounce back here against the Steelers Let's talk now about the jets at the bills this one of three games on during the afternoon slates, so enjoy that The spread is the bills minus seven with a total at 40 right now and Ed It's effectively a must-win game for the bills given how tough their remaining schedule is and I'm way off market on this game. I show a lot of value on the bills So I want to figure out why the spread is not larger. So I want to get a sanity check from you What's your read on the bills and what's it read on them in this game specifically? I think the question is whether this is a good buy low spot for the bills When I run a number for this, I mean I've thrown out I threw out the the preseason component for the jets every single week The I use my market numbers I use data based on the current season and that is pretty consistently said the jets are between two or three points worse than NFL average. I think that's about right We've seen a big Increase in their defensive numbers over the last couple weeks. The offense simply sucks. Zach Wilson is just just not a good quarterback And then the bills, you know, like I mean, you know the parts of the bills are doing really well The offense is actually look pretty good in my numbers I think it's kind of the turnovers that that got Dorsey fired, which is unfortunate But right now the bills are actually dead last when I look at passing success rate on defense That is bad It's not I don't think the story I don't I certainly don't think they're the worst past defense in the NFL and you can kind of tell by some of the PFF grades that they have as a defense. They're actually ninth in coverage grade Even with that today is white they they've actually got some pretty good players back there We're still Douglas has stepped in they all have some pretty good grades Their 12th and pass rush is so so, you know, I mean when you grade them on a play-by-play basis They seem a lot better. They seem, you know, that we can expect here on out that they'll be about NFL average I think that's a decent expectation. It's pretty interesting to look at von Miller. He's played. I think six games But I wrote down he's got six pressures on 88 pass rush snaps. That's bad. I Don't know whether he's gonna do better But clearly he has the talent to do better. He has been a lot better than that So that's an interesting thing to watch here as well overall my numbers have buffalo by eight I haven't bet this yet. I would certainly lean towards the bills, you know I have I have a ticket for the bills to win the division I have a ticket on jets under nine and a half wins, which is not as Sound as I would like it to be at this point. I mean honestly that first game is still Yeah, you know, I mean if you remember like, you know, the jets one on a punt return and overtime I had the jets money line. I remember it very well. Yes. Yeah so Yeah, I don't know. I mean, it's I definitely lean towards the bills here I'll probably I might bet it later, but But that's certainly my lean Yeah, I agree with the defense of stuff like they They're they're rough there because of all the injuries they've had stuff like that Like I think that's legitimate I agree with you though on the offense as well where they've had some turnover luck and we know that turnovers are Kind of fluke not entirely fluke you like Josh Allen does He does some weird stuff now I think I read from PFF or somewhere that he has his lowest turnover worthy play rate of his career He's just so you might have to run some like bad ball numbers on that but like I Don't know. I don't think they're as bad as they've as the results say they've been recently I think that this is an offense. I can I feel okay betting on Like I don't really care that Dorsey got fired because like he did some weird stuff anyway, and I like Joe Brady, but like I Don't think he deserved to be fired, but it doesn't like bother me that he was so I guess for me personally It's just I think this offense is a lot better than what this number is saying and even in a good match I don't think that Jess can keep pace Which is why I was very okay laying the six and a half at the time and even at seven I do still think the bills are undervalued there Yeah, it turns to the bad ball stuff Josh Allen has traditionally been pretty good since the beginning of the 2021 season he has an 11% bad ball rate, which is lower than the 11.6 or seven point eleven point six NFL average He's actually been particularly good this season 9.7% bad ball rate his intersection rate has been over three, which is not good the NFL average is two point three I had him under a half interception and Cincinnati That was rough. I mean I was checking to see if they were up for for Sunday for that exact reason not up yet but they uh, yeah, that one was a rough game because like Like he threw a pick right to the Cincinnati guy, which is obviously a mistake. Yeah, but He only had two bad balls thing, you know the defense only got Their hand on two bad balls, which you know more often than not you're gonna get You know zero zero Interceptions and win that bet. I think that was also the game Joe Burrow had like six bad balls and no picks I have to over on that that was yeah, I was not happy that week with how I had the bills I had the bills in that game, too So I had the bills on Monday, too And like it felt like their past rush was constantly getting there But then Russ would do like vintage rust stuff and I was like losing my mind like where did this come from? He's like flipping balls to running backs on like third and ten to pick up first downs It's just like right crazy Russ. We have not seen him like of course this happens Yeah, when I'm betting the bills add them like a teaser to like it was it was rough brutal stuff. Yeah Yep, oh well, well, hopefully they don't do it again because I I'm just annoyed at them at this point But I I bet them anyway, but I'm annoyed at them for sure Let's finish things up here by talking about the the hammer on Monday night That is the Eagles at the cheese a Super Bowl rematch for right now Cheese are two and a half point favorites in the total in this game 45 and a half some potential weather here looks more so rain than wind I care more about wind personally. So whether it doesn't bother me too much But I had with this game neither offense has really lit things up this year despite having a pretty impressive record So what do your numbers say about the Eagles at the chiefs on Monday night? Yeah, I mean, I think you know, this is a this is kind of an interesting game Just because I just don't think these teams are the two teams that met in the Super Bowl last year As you said Kansas City's offense is down their ninth of my adjusted passing success rate I'm not exactly down on the unit. You know, they still have Travis Kelsey Rookie Rashi Rice Has had 2.28 yards per outrun, which is very good for any NFL rival receiver in particular a rookie Why receivers average about 1.5 yards per outrun? Kansas City's look great based on Defense the past defense ranks second in my adjusted numbers But you know a lot of regression is looming for this unit It's not a team that you would say hey, I expect us to be one of the elite NFL defenses you can kind of see this In the PFF numbers their 18th and coverage grade It's kind of the opposite of what we talked about for Buffalo, right? Buffalo's numbers are terrible. We expect them to regress the average With the chiefs the numbers are great and we expect them to regress towards average as well You know Philly's got an 8-1 record and Yeah, we talked about this with Louisville yesterday, right? Like they lost to the team that they absolutely should have beat in the Jets and then our 5-0 and all other one-score games, right? And close wins over Dallas last week and Washington twice You really got to talk about how the defense has been a ton worse They are pretty much NFL average when I look at adjusted passing success rate and You know, I mean Josh Job is at a really hard time filling in for Avante Maddox His PF grade is awful every time I turn on the Eagles. It looks like he's getting burnt So on the offense Jalen Hertz has actually been pretty good in the last two games I'm having I'm tracking a 50% sex success rate in both those games But also like seven, you know, seven yards for past attempt against Dallas almost eight yards for past attempts Against Washington much better than the NFL averages. I personally don't trust Jalen Hertz as a passer I've seen him too inaccurate. He has never had a Even with those stud wide receivers. He's never really had Great numbers when you look at passing success rates obviously brings a lot with his legs and other things but like I Personally think these last two games are a bit of a fluke Overall, I have Kansas City by almost five points at home I'm certainly seeing value in the minus two and a half. What's interesting based on the data this season. I Would make Kansas City five points better on a neutral site like that's kind of how bad Philly's defense has played. I Think there's a lot of value in Kansas City minus two. I think this is gonna get to at least three Oh, and did we mention that that hurts? Was is still listed as questionable because you got banged in his knee last week He's gonna play but yeah, you know, maybe not a hundred percent So I think this gets to at least three and I think there's a lot of value on Casey It's hit three briefly a couple times, but then it's come back and the money line is kind of bounced around a bit, too Currently Kansas City money line is minus one forty eight. I believe that I show value on that Yeah, I've got them at I'm not ton I've got them at sixty four point two percent to win and their implied odds are Right around sixty percent. It's actually decent on a value on the chief's money line here I don't tend to trust my model with the Eagles because of the stuff you mentioned It does weight passing efficiency a lot and they get dinged in that every single time I have a different model that kind of views things more holistically and that one has the chiefs by two point seven So I tend to trust that model more so when it comes to Eagles games because I worry that it'll It'll worry too much about their passing efficiency But they've got like that cheat code on third and fourth and short Which is weird because like you would think it would lead to their Laydown success rate being astronomical and it is first in the league But it's not like an outlier in terms of where it is compared to other teams So I think they're the hardest team to diagnose I wish I could just ignore every Eagles game every single week because I feel like it just leads down really dumb roads for me I did take the chiefs money line Just because that other model is an overall test better Like I know that like it's mean squared error is better than my other model but I always worry about it the Eagles specifically because of the uh because of how good they are running the football because of An underwhelming passing efficiency, so I did take the chiefs. I don't feel like perfect about it, but I think that There's a reason why the numbers are where they are. I guess is the way that I'd phrase that personally right Yeah, so it's a fun game. Uh, should be a decent one to cap things off on monday night, but hey, you know, it's not Not if you don't want to bet it you want to sit back and enjoy the game Like I discussed with the thursday night game Fully within your rights because it should be a good way to close out the week as well That is all that we have if you're forward today on the nfl week 11 side of things, but we do have some props coming up tomorrow with a jj zack A reason to get that show make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We will have a show coming up on monday as well breaking down Eagles and she's with ryan williams to break down that game talks and player props to that one as well Ed what is going on for you this week at the powering? uh, I Still writing my Check out my free sports betting email newsletter I publish five no get saturday And so if you're looking for any action if you're looking for some action On any given weekend that's the free service for you. So check that out at the power rank dot com And ed also mentioned yesterday that he has a show up on the football analytics show talking about Impact of rest impact of home field would highly recommend that to just kind of get a refresher on how much those things matter in Our current day and age you can find ed on twitter at the power rank. I am on twitter at jim sonnis I am on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research Want to thank you all for tuning in for today? Enjoy bangles versus ravens for tonight and we'll talk to you once again tomorrow for some player props in week 11 This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network