 Okay, traders, welcome to today's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me and you can see the TickMeal welcome screen, if you can just type a Y in the chat box so I know we're good to go. Okay, so before we get going with today's chart pack, as always, once we're here to the risk disclaimer, we know that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk and you have the potential to lose more capital than you necessarily have on deposits. But most importantly for today, any views or opinions expressed by me here today in this session are solely mine. They are not indicative of or representative of TickMeal UK or TickMeal Europe Limited. So before we jump into the charts, let me just, for those who are here for the first time, give a brief overview of who I am, where I'm coming from. Like I said, my name is Patrick Munley after I graduated from Kings College London. I joined a city PLC consulting firm after a couple of years learning the ropes, I left with some colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit a consulting starter post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. So with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading on more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. After some early beginner's luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck ran out. As the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a six-figure personal financial hit, which to say was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was going to be feasible for me to make a living from the market. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor who had an excellent trading track record. So I worked with my mentor for 18 months to two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical gain, researching and developing a strategy that suited my personality. I extensively back and forward tested this strategy and then developed a rigorous risk management approach to underpin it. The most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental gain. And probably most important was the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated financial gains-focused individual to becoming a purely process-orientated individual. So what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. Once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading as being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional attachment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. So I'm not concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades. My focus is on the next hundred trades because I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, which are the performance figures you can see on the screen, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored and over a hundred private traders have all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in helping them develop the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted to numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content, webinars and live presentation content, a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring, I'm also a resident market expert for TITML, providing a daily market outlook for the FX majors and then I also provide a chart of the day or a trading setup that I'm currently tracking in the markets. My other passion project, I guess, is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trader education brand called FXcareerswap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents at FXcareerswap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through our structure program that culminates in being able to manage the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from today and if you want any more information about TITML, contact details are on the screen if you would like to learn more about that. Before we get going with the charts, let me just turn off the audio feed that's running in the background there and that will help us immensely. Okay, so we're going to move straight into the chart saving because I've got a bunch of charts I want to cover with you. I think we're potentially moving into a phase now where we could see a bunch of opportunities open up. We'll start just quickly looking at the S&P 500, cover this in detail last week so I'm not going to go over that again but we are certainly getting into an interesting area now with this S&P 500. We're actually we've made a marginal new high here coming back into that ascending trend line resistance and we failed to close above it yesterday and if we can't get a close above there then I think we probably have another corrected phase three wave correction ultimately the level I'm looking at the area of real interest for me is this 37 28 area. There's a bunch of components setting up there now and like I've discussed last week I think that should be an area from which we see a certainly a tradable correction. I'm talking I'm not talking you know 10 or 20 points the S&P I'm talking a few hundred points in the S&P from what I can see at the moment in terms of what's developing so whilst we can't get back about this 3650 area at the moment then that certainly suggests that we could see an equality pullback somewhere into this 3500 area and then maybe we get that last leg to the upside into that 3728 and that's where I'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions. I'm certainly targeting a retest of support here at 3263 maybe even down here into this 3200 area as the objective for the corrected move that I envisage is coming our way. This is the my trading time frame chart for me the daily time frame and you can see I've got this area highlighted we're not quite there yet but certainly this is one that's on my radar whilst we hold this trend line here this interim trend line then and I think we can squeeze up into this area and then like I say we'll be watching for setting opportunities. Similar story obviously the NASDAQ is a little slightly different as we have an equality objective versus this swing here which comes in at that 12500 level just above those prior highs which could be an interesting potential bull trap there but we'll have to see how we respond once and if we get into that area. Moving on we have the dollar index so dollar let's look at the DXY the broader dollar index first we're sitting right at the year-to-date lows now. What I do know here is as we are in this area we have got some pretty significant momentum divergence here so where we get where we get these double tops triple double bottoms double tops triple tops triple bottoms and we have this momentum divergence I'm always alert to the potential that we could see a snapback here in a correction before ultimately going lower as those who follow me will know I believe we are in a a five-way decline here in the dollar index relatively well defined pattern which should see us trade down into the 90 area is what I'm looking for and how I get that measurement is this is our wave one and so more often than not what we're looking for in a wave five to complete a pattern is equality is a minimum objective so if we measure from there to there and we overlay that measurement from our wave four high which is here then we get the equality objective highlighted for us here so it's currently coming in just above the 90 handle and then we get further confluence if we use the fibrous tracement tool and we just fit the wave four zone and you can see what we've got coming in just below us there at 89.92 is the 161 extension of the of the three four there so that's this is our target zone in terms of the downside objective for the the dollar index to complete or potentially complete this initial leg to the downside from those from those march highs so that's what what we're looking at now like I say because we've got this momentum divergence we could see a corrective phase before looking to to move lower here and if we are going to see that then let's take a look at that oops let's take a look at where that could develop for us so we certainly want to pay attention to as we draw that at the moment we would have this uh channel to pay attention to so any correction really back up into the the midpoint of this channel so uh the the apex here so somewhere around 93.25 uh is more than feasible and certainly if we look at um at this last collective uh corrective leg we saw here and that would give us that that gives us a target a symmetry swing target of 92.90 so anyway back into this zone could give us a shorting opportunity and or the trend line resistance which comes in just about 93.50 so it's um there is the potential that we you know we do get a correction here but ultimately the roads look like they're leading towards this 90 handle um to the downside in the dollar index similar story obviously in the equal ways of dollar index again we're testing potential double bottom we've got that momentum divergence so we know that technically there is the potential for a corrected move here before we uh before we ultimately break lower so check in with the dollar one this is uh still in it still clearly defined channel breaking to the downside but again we have found some support here um at this 654 level and if the dollar index is going to pop then we will anticipate that that would take the dollar yuan with it as well and we could be back up retesting trend line resistance at 665 handle in terms of the swissie um what i'm looking for here now with this swissie is the potential for an inverse head and shoulders to develop you can see again thinking in terms of um divergence to the down uh divergence in terms of the lows being made here so we have this low and you can see we made a high in terms of momentum so there is i i believe that we've got the potential to to see a leg higher here it's just where we're going to get that from and at this stage the preferred scenario for me would be that um that we run down into uh this area here and that acts as support to take us up then into this 93 area so that's what i'm tracking with uh with the dollar swiss here looking for that inverse head and shoulders pattern to develop uh in around that 90 uh 90 30 area loony so we're in this big descending triangle pattern here and again if if we're going to see a pop in the dollar then i believe we can see the same in the loony as well and potentially takes us back up into um the descending trend line resistance here so you get this move if we can hold the current levels you can see that an equality swing would uh would basically take us up into um the descending trend line resistance from there i think then we might break lower in terms of the loony but we'll have to see how the you know the dollar dynamic plays out but certainly whilst we hold current levels we can get a close back above uh the daily VWAP let's just blow this up a bit so we can get the exact level we want to track here so what i've been looking for in the daily chart is a close back about let's say 30 130 40 and that would set up this move into the 132 uh 25 area so keep an eye on that euro dollar so the euro inverse obviously to the dollar index and so we are in you know a fairly well defined channel here and again if we think just in terms of the you know highlighting the uh the wave count for us here in terms of defining the structure a wave four low here and then we'd be expecting the wave five to complete uh somewhere up here and again using the the the trend based uh fit extension tool we can get a clear measurements of where that should uh where that should complete so whilst we hold 116 as the low then our wave five equality objective will actually be there at uh at the 121 area now if we um we measure with the fit retracement tool the 34 you can see we also get the 127 extension so when we're looking for these wave five target zones we're tracking the equality versus wave one and then we're also looking for some fib confluence versus the 34 rather looking at the 127 extension or the 1618 extension to help guide our area the target zone that we're tracking for the pattern to complete now something we we want to pay attention to here at the moment is as I talked about in previous weeks we do have a volatility crush at the moment which is indicative of these wave four consolidations in markets but whilst we have that if you're you know if you're targeting this area you certainly need to need to be very patient with your with your positions because this can be a grind as opposed to a thrust ideally it would be a thrust that would add credence to the idea that we will see a decent correction from there um but at the moment especially with the us out today on holidays uh the Thanksgiving holidays we've got low low volume low participation so we're not seeing too much in the way of action at the moment do know though that in terms of the the the area that that is is posing a challenge to the euro to get through is this one 1918 in terms of our closing basis and that's the 78.6 percent retracement of the 34 decline and that's noteworthy because if we can't get that close through the 78.6 plant retracement then there is the potential that we're going to fail and not make a wave five high and actually roll over from it from these current levels so pay attention to the first close above this area will add credence to the idea that we're going to go and take a look at that 121 area but if we just you know we've had a couple of attempts here and we're not we're not just not getting through that at the moment and that's that's something that I certainly pay attention to as uh as this could be a bull trap that's um that's developing and obviously bear in mind we're trading at potential double bottom lows on both of the the dollar indexes and those are warnings that there are certainly um signs in the market that I pay attention to as uh as we could fail to get up here and actually roll over and retest range support um into the close of the year uh Euro yen this is uh a position I've put on this morning where a third touch of this descending trend line and we go a four hour rejection on the intraday charts and I uh I saw a small short position there we'll see how that plays out um because what we've got with this Euro yen is if we um is if we continue to hold uh this area here so this is our swing high it's our reaction low almost we hold 125 15 as the pivot then the equality objective is down here at 119 back into these prior lows and that would uh that would be the objective whilst we hold whilst we hold 125 as our resistance area we've also got that descending trend channel support coming in there so I don't think we're going there in a straight line if we are going there but uh at the moment watch and again what would add credence to this this trade and give it some give it some potency on the downside if we get this close below the daily VWAP at 123.84 that's that's what I'll be watching into the close today um on the Euro yen sterling obviously grinding it up in terms of the the brexit headlines and I think we're coming into a very interesting area here and it's an interesting market dynamic that we're coming into as well this idea of buying the rumour so the market bids up that the the instruments on the rumour which is obviously the deal is going to get done and then the deal gets done and um certainly from from current levels what we could be looking at is um it's something like this so maybe we get a bit of a pull back here but then we hit these prior highs uh we've got the monthly r3 the weekly r3 and I'd be paying very close attention also on the basis that we're in the midpoint of the defining channel here so we haven't been able to trade back into the upper half of the trend channel which again is indicative of of some underlying momentum weakness in the market so any move up into this the midpoint of the channel and we get a bearish rejection then I think that's going to set up a certainly a tradeable pullback in sterling to wash out some of these wheat longs and we could be back testing this trend line support down towards 131 before reigniting the bullish spirits to the upside so pay very close attention to how we trade at these prior highs and if we uh if we see rejection candles there you can look on the four hour charts the hourly charts if you're so minded but certainly on the daily chart a rejection from this area sets up a move back to to check support down to the 131 area um sterling obviously isn't another one that has uh has some held its trend channel support the third test it held didn't really get anywhere to the upside and now we've had a rollover here the fourth test is is likely to break the trend channel support and if it does what we've then got versus this swing high this swing low and if this is going to be our swing high here this 183 then we have an equality objective which will take us down to this 17745 which then would put us potentially into an inverse head and shoulders scenario so um if we if we do take out the channel support here at 180 I've been looking for a move down to 177 and then certainly watching how we trade here bullish reversal patterns to set up the potential for a long trade in terms of a bigger inverse head and shoulders scenario on that structure and sterling yen is another one I'm watching so sterling yen again in the midpoint of the channel failing to capture we'll get back above that that mid mid area of the channel and um and we've got these prior highs over here if we look left uh 139 76 tried to get through there um in early november and failed and now we're back up testing that area and it looks like we're getting um some decent supply there so whilst this uh again looking for a close back below the the daily vwap here 138 90s I think that sets up a retest of channel support so what we'd be looking at again would be an equality move so this swing versus that swing so you can see how that would put us straight back into the ascending trend channel support and then from there longs might look to to reload and try and get into the top half of the channel or we break lower so um so again opportunity here watching the closes on this uh this sterling yen this again it's an important concept to understand this inability of price to to break it uh fellow um if you I can see you've raised your hand for a question if you can just hold your questions until I've finished going through the charts and then I'll open up for for a brief Q&A session so if you can just jot down your question and then um once we've once we've been through the charts I'll uh I'll give you an opportunity to ask any questions you might have um so that's sterling yen now we'll take a look at these commodity currencies where I see opportunity developing um first one here is the Aussie so you can see how we traded in this section over here uh so this was back in uh September so let's just put a uh let's just highlight this area so we consolidated after the the breakdown and then uh sorry after the initial breakdown then we rolled over now if we clone that time periods and the price periods and we overlay it versus our current price action you can certainly see the similarities now this is what I refer to as market mirroring so to speak uh price has a funny way of mirroring itself in a certain set of circumstances and so in this instance what we'd be looking for now is um is one one more push higher here to take us up into the trend channel resistance the monthly R3 the weekly R3 and just through these prior highs so any any move up into this uh this 74 30 area again watching for various reversal patterns because I think we've got the opportunity then to trade down into the trend channel support at the 71 area and again in this idea of um of a bull trap so to speak so watch how price responds when we get into this 74 70 74 30 area again you can be looking on the hourly charts for for intraday signals certainly I'll be watching the daily response when we get into this area because I think like I say we've got the potential to trade up into there and then get a wash out to the downside and retest 71 as as support um the Aussie yen trading at its trend line resistance but we're we're holding at the moment so this this one isn't giving me a signal at the moment the Aussie Swiss is a little bit more interesting and the reason why I'm interested in the Aussie Swiss is because we're coming back into these prior highs and what we can clearly see in terms of the Aussie Swiss is we've got a wave pattern here it's pretty straightforward to identify so that's our way four so where's our way five going to complete well it looks to me like it will probably complete into a double top now again what we want to do is we want to get some measurement on this so inequality move versus the wave one from our wave four low puts us right back into this 67 30 and we've got so we've got that structure resistance and what we what we also want to pay attention to to add further evidence to this potential opportunity is again this idea of momentum divergence so any pop up into this 67 30 double top nice divergence on our momentum study and again you can be looking on those intraday four hour charts or certainly watch the daily close when we get into this area because I think it's an opportunity on the short side then and and really we can eat you know at a minimum what we could be thinking about is certainly a 50% retracement so we go to this this leg up here so if we do complete in around that 67 30 well then we could easily be trading back at the 65 50 area so you know there's 200 people opportunity there and and that coincides with the midpoint of of the range that we've been trading in since June so we define the range that's the this is the range resistance clone this and bring it down here and then we've got range support so this I think this is a very interesting trade and again watching Harry respond once we get up into this 67 30 area as a CAD as a CAD in a similar setup to be honest with you this is obviously if we're going to think in terms of gain we're going to highlight the wave structure have we had you know does this does this qualify for a three four well it could do you prefer to see something similar in scope in terms of price not necessarily time with the with wave two there but what let's just bring in the expansion tool and get an idea of target zone so this is four and so this is one and then we bring that to there so again target zone if this is our way for low the target zone will again bring us a very interesting double top scenario because it would complete right into the prior highs and again similar story to that Aussie Swiss in terms of a nice a nice range that we can track here so certainly we could be thinking of a retest of the midpoint of the channel or the the range and potentially down into to range support so these some of these Aussie pairs across this area look very interesting at the moment especially we can get up into these prior highs and again watch everyone pay attention to terms of the indicators well we want to see momentum uh momentum divergence hold for us there so uh watching this 60 96 80 area in terms of the Aussie Swiss now the Kiwi also setting up Kiwi's sitting right on the top side of its channel here and uh and we start to see a potential stall out we've got divergence versus the area where the channel initiated from so this uh this adds to the weight here what we haven't really clearly got as such is that is that really nicely defined wave structure to complete this move so it could be actually that this wave that this if we this is going to be an interim high but that will give us actually the the third wave completion and then we'd look for a wave four and then a wave five like so before then seeing the pick and move to the downside so let's just put in some levels to give us some targets here so if we hold this 70 level initially here then we'd look for a move back down into the 68 30 as our wave four objective and if that's going to be where we we stall out in terms of our wave four then we can think in terms of targets again using the measurement tool and you can see then what we get would be a move up into the 70 45 area to complete the wave five pattern there and then from there I think we could expect a pullback certainly to to retest 68 as support and potentially the channel support down to 67 is the zone to watch in terms of some of the Kiwi crosses and we've got some interesting price patterns here I think we might have a wave five completing here in terms of the Kiwi yen let me draw that in for you so we're going to use this as our one two three and a four and this could be our five completing now so let's just get our measurement tool and see if we can see if we're holding so there we go so you can see this is our wave four low and whilst we hold here we the target we're looking for obviously isn't a quality objective for the minimum versus wave one which is 73 32 we basically touch that to the pip and we're now getting a pullback so if certainly if we take out yesterday's low that will add religious the idea that we've got a wave five high in place and then we can start thinking about downside targets if we're going to get in on the short side and we take a look at the 50% retracement puts us right back into the middle here at 71 so again setting up a potential potential 200 pip move there to the downside if this is going to be our wave five high Kiwi Swiss a similar story let's just bring this quickly draw these in so we've got our one two our three and our four potential five into the trend channel resistance here so again just to give us further conviction let's see if we have a quality versus our wave one from our wave four low you can see we've just come into that target zone so again this sets up an opportunity I think here on the potential on the short side and we can think in terms of targets 50% retracement we put us right back into this prior resistance to it now act to support at the 61 70 area so let's see if we can get price back below the daily VWAP here at the 63 32 and you've got a trade back down into this 61 85 so and Kiwi CAD similar story here but with this one again I don't I'm not convinced at this stage that we've had our wave our wave four here I think we're still in wave three so if that's the case again we know what what to do so we have one two this could be our wave three high and then we're looking for our wave four an equality objective it's just one tool we can use so if we think about wave four completing in a similar price vein not necessarily time but certainly in terms of price we want to see whoops let's leave that out there and then go here so we have one two so if we get a four that completes in and around here these prior highs and let's just measure the price movement there and overlay it here so you can see we get a target for our way forward to complete at the 90 level prior highs and if we hold that area the 90 area then we get our wave five targets puts us into the 92 zone and from there then we'd be looking for momentum secret note also this is why I'm not I'm not convinced that this is our that this is our our fifth wave high because we haven't got any divergence in terms of the momentum study at this point really so this adds to my this adds to my conviction level that we need to get this four pullback because what that will do in terms of the momentum study is give us a pullback like so and then as price moves up here into the wave five high we should actually get a lower high then in terms of the momentum study giving us that divergence allowing us to to take account of trend trade to the short side last but not least we'll take a quick look at gold and bitcoin and then I'm going to let you guys go so gold has come into the target zone the 1805 1826 we're stalling at the moment we've got this trend channel support just below us at 1781 these prior highs here as well so I'm watching to see how gold responds here because we may get a move a corrective move higher here in terms of gold obviously if the dollar is going to hold a double bottom then it could be that gold is going to trade lower and we do have the the next target to the downside in terms of gold is 1740 so again watch the dynamic between the dollar and gold at the moment it's that's one to pay attention to and last but not least because it's all over headlines we've got bitcoin here I'm looking ideally now we've traded into the top side of the channel the weekly projected range support we've got a pullback ideally we'd like to see a three wave move now to retest this 15 000 area would be ideal and that could set up then the next leg higher in terms of in terms of bitcoin so keep an eye on this one it's certainly I think is potential it's trading technically very well at the moment and so so watch for a quick three wave correction here over the next three or four days and then and then see if we're into this 50 percent retrace marry 1465 or around this 15 000 certainly be an area of interest to want to pay attention to okay so there's the charts I'm watching and positions I'm looking to to play are there any questions you can type into the chat box if you if there's a pair you want to take a look at I haven't covered CAD Swiss so CAD Swiss is really just pretty frustrating at the moment just going sideways in this ever-increasing triangle and what you'd have to think at the moment is whilst we hold these highs then there's the potential that we're going to see an equality move like so put this back down into channel support maybe from there we you know we break to the upside or we break down and then we pull back and use that as resistance to to retest these silos is is the scenario we're tracking in terms of the CAD Swiss does that make sense sterling CAD again just in the channel at the moment not really not really too you know the price action isn't very exciting we have taken out the the descending trend line resistance but again because of the volatility because we're in such a low volatility environment at the moment we're not seeing these these breakouts really break out as such what we're tending to do is just break break the technical level and then pull back into the ranges so it's pretty frustrating trading at the moment to be honest with you because of the the nature of the volatility environment but sterling CAD is not let's just see what we've done here versus this so you can see we're holding really just around the equality objective so you could you could make the case that you know that we've been correcting this move here or we've hold the 78 78.6 percent retracement and the equality objective so it could be that we've got to go back down and retest trend channel support from the current levels uh no i'm not sure bitcoin um i'm waiting to to add to uh to long positions any other questions okay if there are any other questions i'm going to wrap this session up here thanks very much for your time i hope this was helpful and we'll uh we'll reconvene at the same time next week thanks very much everybody