 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Lot of interesting games and interesting situations at hand for week number four across the NFL We're gonna break those down from a prop betting perspective and get JJ Zachary since read on those and get you some Profitual bets for this week over at fan dual sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round cube You can find his work at late round calm in the late round fantasy football podcast JJ happy Friday. Happy week four How you doing today? Happy Friday? I could be doing better if Traylon Berks didn't fall at the one inch line last week and that plus 280 bet that we talked about That was that was unfortunate, but I'm doing all right I'm hoping that this week is better than the first two that I've been on the show, you know The bets that I've shared on the show. Yeah, it's just been so so close some of these so I think we're in good spot We talked about that Tuesday The Brady stuff was also kind of annoying with the way that it worked out But then you did nail with the reminder Stevenson stuff talking about how you know His his role is better than it seemed in that one game And no matter what market you would have taken Stevenson in because numbers were not up And we spoke but no matter what you did if it was a rushing yardage prop receiving yardage prop Rushing plus receiving yardage prop or touchdown prop you would have checked every single box there So the read-in situation was good the read on the roll for Traylon Berks So I think ran around on like every drop back in that game the situation the read-in situation was great Which I think both well for the long-term process here. I hope I hope Travis ETN was over too So we got we got the ETN. I was just I think the most shocking from last week was the Brady the Brady I really thought that was the strongest bet that we had talked about last week And then you know the game script went the way that it went and you know He he hit that over in the final drive. So it was at least close I think with the way your luck went Sunday The most fitting thing would have been ETN catching like a negative 16-yard screen to get back to 14 receiving yards Because he was over 30 over 16 and a half like right away. Yeah, that would have been the way that things would have gone For you on Sunday, but the process was good. We'll hope to spin that forward for week four as well Breakdown what JJ likes my prop perspective for this week in just one second But first a reminder to check out the covering the spread podcast feed for our NFL week four full betting preview with Ryan Williams Our college football betting preview We had Colin Wilson on this week with Dr. Ed Feng to break down their favorite bets for this week Also, all these podcasts up on the fan dual YouTube page as well Twisted T and Fandall joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in site credits introducing twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play The contest is simple each college football team will be assigned money lines spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct Selection you may if at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head if annual comm Slash twisted T picks and make your picks reminder. Please drink responsibly Let's dig into week number four here and the key thing that I saw JJ was weather for this week because a lot of games on the East coast specifically impacted by Hurricanian obviously the non football impacts. This are far more important than the football impacts and that matters more We do want to talk about this from a prop betting perspective Forecasts might shift by Sunday, but just in general from a broad perspective How does weather factor into your process with betting props? Yeah, look, I mean look hurricane Ian might be factoring into my Friday night plans here in Charlotte tonight So I feel it, you know, I'm feeling the effects of hurricane Ian Even though it's not even close to what it was felt down in Florida You know the big thing with weather as we have talked about plenty of times and as every analyst has talked about is wind I mean you really want to make sure that wind is Ideally under 15 miles an hour is is okay Once you get to that 15 miles an hour mark it starts to get a little bit iffy and then if you get to that 20 miles an hour That's when you really got to pay attention, but I think that a lot of people Look at this from the standpoint of only passing because obviously whenever you're throwing against the wind like that It's just crazy and in field goals and stuff like that That's like that the obvious go-to when it comes to wind But again, you know, I look at my projections from a top down and I take a top down approach And what this really does it changes the offense entirely You're gonna see these game totals drop and when game totals drop that obviously impacts There's a reason for that and it obviously impacts the players in that game And so from a prop betting standpoint just pay attention that kind of stuff And if if these guys lines aren't reacting quick enough to what the game totals doing or what this weather looks like Then that's when you can pound so always understand that with wind In particular, you know a little bit of rains fine You know unless you get like the monsoon that we saw right wanting and see it with Chicago and San Francisco It's not that big of a deal even snow is not the biggest deal in the world I mean we've seen Tom Brady remember that Tom Brady game where he had like 18 touchdowns I think it was against like Tennessee up in New England way back in the day So, you know, snow is even not that big of a deal unless you get a blizzard game like the Philadelphia game We always go back to that like that Lashan McCoy game, right? Yeah So that stuff matters, but wind is is the big big predictor And so just pay attention to that factor and how that impacts the offense as a whole not just passing So even rushing numbers, you know, you shouldn't feel or even especially rushing touchdown totals Correct, you shouldn't feel as good about that stuff Because the team in the offense in general is not gonna perform as well I think that's the thing that goes overlooked is people think oh, they run the football more They'll you know the running back we just better remarked for running backs But like totals come down like you said and that impacts everybody's touchdown market So if you like a number, you need better value on it if there's gonna be wind on it to make sure It's still a good number after counting for that wind And just having that in mind like you said it rain I don't care unless it's a monsoon or I guess hurricane But it sounds like for most these games the actual rain itself will not be that bad during the games And that might honestly be an advantage for offense because they know where they're going and the defense does not And that's that's a big thing too So I'd agree the biggest takeaway being touchdown props and the yardage props making sure you're accounting for that fully Now the other factor of play for this week is that we have a lot of teams changing quarterbacks The Jets get Zach Wilson back the Patriots have most likely Brian Hoyer I don't think Mac Jones officially been ruled out yet But probably gonna be Brian Hoyer there now you project to things as you said from a top-down perspective So when you're doing that with a team that has a new quarterback in place What questions are you asking yourself when a team has the potential to fundamentally change the way they're operating? Yeah, I think the big question you ask is does this quarterback have certain tendencies, you know Brian Hoyer Going from Mac Jones to Brian Hoyer. It's sort of like a system quarterback situation there with Mac Jones I'm not saying that he's necessarily a system quarterback, but he's not probably say that yeah Like we don't we don't know if Mac Jones is gonna be this like absolute superstar and stellar player The one thing with Mac Jones is kind of wild though is he's actually chucking it deep at a pretty good rate this year So I would expect that to probably drop maybe a little bit with Brian Hoyer That might be as aggressive as they've been with Mac Jones, but at the same time You know, that's also factoring in the the Packers have a pretty good defense and secondary And but they will be in a negative game script too more than likely just given the spread So, you know, I think it's more neutral for New England overall I'm not really that concerned with how I would view some of these guys You know, maybe, you know, we've seen Jacoby Myers with really awesome target shares with Mac Jones And if he goes this week because he didn't play last week But if he goes this week, you know, maybe bump that down a little bit just because you know There are a quarterback to wide receiver and pass catcher tendencies that we just see because just naturally as human beings You like throwing to certain players. I think that's that's natural. The one thing with the jets That's really interesting. There's actually a lot of stuff with the jets right now That's pretty crazy. So the jets right now have a 73 percent pass rate on the season Which is just absurd the highest pass rate of any team since 2011 was 67% from the 2013 Atlanta Falcons That's when they had like dirt cutter and actually Harry Douglas led that team in targets that year because Julio Jones got hurt But they were at 67% the jets are at a 73 percent pass rate right now So that's inevitably gonna regress like that's not going to sustain And I think what's gonna happen is Zach Wilson steps in, you know They're playing the Steelers this week with a three point spread. So it's likely gonna be a fairly close game You know not not necessarily a super negative game script And so the jets are probably not gonna pass as much and then people are gonna attribute that to being a Zach Wilson thing But it's really just a regression thing and a game script thing overall right But the other thing too that I think we really should pay attention to is that over the last year and a half We've seen these backup quarterbacks for the jets really really target their running backs through the air I mean a lot I mean so far this year the jets running backs have a 28 percent target share only the bills Which is kind of crazy that the bills are higher the Broncos and the Chargers are higher Broncos and Chargers make ton of sense But the jets are at a really high target share this year at the running back position They did that last year with Mike White when he stepped in but Zach Wilson last season He had a running back target share of about 19 percent. So, you know, it's dramatically lower So you sort of compound those factors where the jets probably aren't gonna pass as much It's just natural. That's just regression and then on top of that those running backs Probably aren't gonna see as much work through the air So I do think that you could look I didn't see anything crazy in the markets right now or anything necessarily this week But even if you're thinking fantasy, I mean you could bump down Breeze Hall and Michael Carter Just a little bit because I do think that that we're gonna see a little bit of a different tendency from Zach Wilson From Joe Flacco and then again, you know, we've seen a lot of Garrett Wilson love over the first three weeks And he's a phenomenal player Yeah, but also see that revert back a little bit more to Elijah Moore who is running more routes and who's Seen better participation overall than Garrett Wilson. So just watch out for those kinds of factors again I don't know if there's anything in the market right now that says pounce on this But I do think that that information is just important to have, you know, entering the week Weird that you would say they're due for aggression when Breeze Hall has double-digit targets in two games Like it's odd. You wouldn't find that sustainable. I'm a little suspicious of that. Okay. So last week talked about the Patriots They're running backs in a situation to target for that week. Let's open that up again this week Obviously, it's only week four a lot of roles still in flux any specific situations You're looking at whether props are up right now or not to try to attack I'd say there's two one of them. We we already talked about with Traylon Burks You know, he saw his lowest target share in production of the season last week against Vegas Which doesn't make that much sense logically, but he had his best route participation He ran the most routes for Tennessee this past week, which is the first time that's ever happened He had by far his best snap rate last week So the Traylon Burks stuff is trending upwards trend and upward literally every week So it's good to see that usage. He's gonna pop eventually as long as he's a good enough player force But you know, he should pop eventually and then the other situation that I think is kind of interesting is the Kansas City back view Week one Clyde Edwards Allaire and Jerick McKinnon tied and snaps played and everyone's like, okay, whatever You know, it's not that big of a deal. There's a weird game script in that game What have you but in weeks two and three Jerick McKinnon has out snapped in each game Clyde Edwards Allaire And I think that you know folks are watching those games You know CEH looks better than he looked last year But there's been a lot of fortune for CEH in terms of how many touchdowns he scored so far He's he's he had one of the biggest plays of the I think his career a couple weeks ago against the Chargers So I actually think that that you could look at this backfield and favor Jerick McKinnon a little bit more than CEH because snaps Translate to more volume to more production etc. Etc. So that that's definitely a backfield that I think is being a little bit overlooked right now Because see I mean CEH think a lot of people recognize that what he's doing right now is a little bit flukey But I'm not sure they realize how much Jerick McKinnon is actually playing Yeah, and it's it's been a lot of production for CEH on very minimal usage and that's not really sustainable Typically especially for a guy who's had question marks around skill so far I want to go back to Traylon Burks for a second here yardage prop I think just went up at Fandall Sportsbook not going to put you on the spot, but 38 and a half is the receiving yardage number for Burks. I feel like based on the route numbers That's probably a bit too low. Yeah, I would agree. I would okay I'd agree with that as well So let's dig into other yardage props available over at Fandall Sportsbook for this week any popping to you right now Based on what you're seeing Yeah, I've got three of them for you First off I think that you have to you have to monitor the weather a little bit right now You know, we looked at this right before we we started recording that Baltimore Buffalo game Which projects to be probably the highest scoring of the week I mean just the most potential to shoot out with Lamar Jackson on one side and Josh Allen on the other and the Ravens still keeping up a decent pass rate and obviously Buffalo this season You know, they've been the sixth most pass friendly team overall So that's despite game script, but then you look at neutral script and their fourth So there's still a very pass heavy team Josh Allen right now His line for passing yardage is that 286 and a half. It's over on Fandall Sportsbook and minus 114 I like the over right now because right now you're seeing sub 15 mile an hour winds Light rain shouldn't impact the game that dramatically the Ravens are 21st this year and success rate allowed through the air Allen's hit this mark in each game this year and two of those games were blowouts You know, I mean like like, you know, you often you know last week Josh Allen threw it like 63 times or something It's Miami and what was more of a neutral slash sort of negative game script more neutral overall But it's good to see that even if this game goes in the bill's favor Allen can still hit the over in this game I think what's going on here is that weather is being factored in to this line at 286 and a half Realistically it probably should be closer to like 295 maybe 300 So I think that right now is a good time to hit the over just given the current weather forecast I think the current what weather forecast right now is not too too bad Yeah, and with Josh Allen, they can't run the football. So like That like the alternative is to run and they can't yeah, that's that's what they showed last week. Yeah Unless it's Josh Allen running I wish we had like a rushing plus passing yardage prop at Fandall that'd be pretty good I think that I'd agree that you're read on the weather right now 14 miles per hour is a Downgrade but it's not a downgrade enough where I think that we're going under 286 and a half So yeah, I do like that one. I for sure. What are the ones sticking out to you? Yeah, so I have two more I have a two running back Unders actually so so Najee Harris right now over on DK sportsbook is that minus 114 at 67 and a half rushing yards? I'm smashing the under there You can't assume a super positive game script for the Steelers in any game let alone this even even against the Jets I mean they're only three-point favorites against the Jets the Jets of the seventh best success rate allowed to running backs this season And that includes a game against the Browns where obviously the Browns can run the ball very effectively They're also third and adjusted target share to running backs So basically teams against the Jets have funneled targets towards the running back position But that's through the air whereas on the ground. They've been able to stop these running backs So I wouldn't look at a total yardage prop for Najee Harris because of that But I would look at the rushing yards and say yeah I mean Najee hasn't hit these marks in each of his last five games and in the majority of those games We're positive or neutral game scripts for Pittsburgh So I think that that this is a pretty pretty safe bet For Najee to pound the under at 67 and a half and then the other one another under cam makers over on DK Is currently at 42 and a half rushing yards and that's minus 115 The Rams use Daryl Henderson line. This is another backfield. That's sort of up in the air We don't really know exactly what they're trying to do what it feels like to me is that they Want to use cam makers really really badly, but he's doing everything to say don't use me I mean, he's fumbling at the goal line. I'm begging you. Don't use me. Yeah, right, right fumbling at the goal line He's just not super effective. I don't think Daryl Henderson is necessarily this like true bell cow back But in the first half last week The Rams did use Daryl Henderson more than cam makers despite that 12 to 4 rush attempt split between the two They get San Francisco this week San Francisco is the fourth best success rate allowed to the running my position They can stop the run and the other thing too that that's interesting is you know We always look for game script dependent running backs and so far this year Daryl Henderson at least over the last two weeks when we've seen more cam makers We can even throw out that week one game where Henderson was was the bell cow for them But even over the last two weeks Henderson according to 4 for 4 stat Explorer He's playing 84 percent of their third down snaps over the last two weeks So if this game goes south, we're gonna see more Daryl Henderson on the field and it also just sets up generally as a Daryl Henderson game You know, I mentioned adjusted target share with Najee Harris and the Jets The 49ers so far ranked first and adjusted target share allowed to running backs. They're 30 second to tight ends So teams are not necessarily looking to the tight end position and looking to the running back position Sort of closer to the line of scrimmage that favors a Daryl Henderson much more than a cam makers So I think game plan wise Henderson makes a little bit more sense. You know acres had a fumble again last week He might be in the doghouse a little bit. It's not like he's been that that effective I know that he's hit the over with this with this line over the last two weeks They've also played Arizona and Atlanta. This is a much much different defense than those defenses So I like the under 42 and a half for cam makers. Yeah tough defensive line there And I I hope that the game script does not go awry because I do have Rams plus two and a half But I think that the thought process there is correct Maybe a late game come back for the Rams to cover my two and a half where they lean on Daryl Henderson later on Also with the Najee Harris one the Jets defensive line is sneaky good Brandon Thorn at established Iran does like an offensive versus defensive line like mismatch column each week I've not gotten to read that yet. I would not be shocked if that one is in there because the Jets defensive line I would say much better than perception. Let's open up the touchdown props JJ. What are you seeing over there for this week? I got one I have one touchdown prop for you lovely listeners this week and it is Cortland Sutton Plus 155 over in Fandall sportsbook any time touchdown Vegas very beatable in that secondary They have the third worst success rate allowed through the air this season Cortland Sutton has 291 receiving yards this year and a goose egg in the touchdown column But from an ex from an expected touchdown standpoint, he should have been expected just given where he's seeing his looks And how much volume he's seeing and how many yards he's accumulated. He should be closer to two So, you know this line right now plus 155 even if he had scored one of those touchdowns I feel like that line would be a lot lower. I think that this could be a Get right game for Denver if you look at all of Denver's sort of peripheral numbers They've been really bad in the red zone. Yes, but their their their yards per drive has been, you know Fairly average above average their scoring rate per drive has even been decent enough. It's just that they're not finding the end zone I think this could be that get right game for them So Cortland Sutton any time touchdown plus 155 this one very much aligns with my financial interest given I have the Broncos money line and I'm gonna have a lot of Sutton in DFS so Prayers up we get that first touchdown and second touchdown and third touchdown for Cortland Sutton for this week That is JJ Zacharyson. Check him out on Twitter at late round cube You can find the late round fantasy football podcast a link to that is up in the show notes over on number fire calm and check out JJ's work check out his patreon at late round Com JJ. Thank you so much as always for coming on once again this week. Good luck to you across week four We'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks, Jim I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can also find the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast once again a week four full betting preview is up on the Covering the spread feed and our college football week five podcast there as well go find that good luck to all of you We'll talk to you once again Monday to preview Monday night football. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network