 All right, welcome everybody Today we're going to go over our playbook and book map Take a look at all the exciting events that are going on in crypto space Before we get going just want to go through a disclosure You know crypto futures forced trading contained substantial risk is not for every investor an investor could potentially use all or more Of that initial investment risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading Past performance is not necessary indicative of future results So don't risk what you don't have it'll mess up your mind in trading so I'm John Slazas from Dharma Capital Trading You can find me on X at Dharma Cap Trading on YouTube Dharma Capital Trading and we have a sub-stack Dharma Capital Trading as well as our Book map discord channel We're going to go over today as our fact-based trading approach and how we you know methodically go through the markets and Fact-based training means making decisions based off objective data and What this will do it's going to reduce your subjective bias and your speculation. So we're basing all of our decisions on facts data-driven facts and Our resources our analytics will help you standardize your decision process and Their applications help you normalize that into your workflow and Our trader development helps you optimize your tactics with those facts And so our method is is always the same Every day every market any asset class Defining the context of the state characteristics. What's the environment? Then we identified the alignment Which is the structure that defines that state so where those states will change and then we identify a our Expectations or more of an if-then what's more likely to occur and the results of which are you know helping you to You know adopt more objective viewpoints. This is going to boost your confidence and your consistency It's going to prove your self-awareness and it's going to help to reduce your stress and elevate your performance so today we're going to dive right into it and I'm going to pull up our live market here and We'll get in but check out Bitcoin and see We've had this huge huge move to the upside Having a little pause here and let's take a look at the playbook and Kind of break down our analytics and build up from from the get-go So this is our playbook. This is our market grid Everything's color-coded Bitcoin today is you know first thing we do is we're identifying the state So our state context is Bull trend Been in a positive bull trend Are we going to perform like a bull trend today? What's the structure of that bull trend? We'll sentiments way below the market We have a positive bias above the market down to 41 59 94 This is our structure low point So the bull trends and force above this price point, so let's just throw that up there by itself Just so we can take a look at this together But I've also drawn on here with it that I recommend that you do you know another fact-based tool is just identifying the previous days high low midpoint and close and So what we can see here, you know the market previous days high We're you know currently we're trading below the previous days closed or net change negative on the session Here's our midpoint. Here's our low typically, you know when the market closes on the high of a time frame It's either going to go or we're going to see this corrective action and A lot of times it's going to want to make a play for at least the midpoint So based on our context, we know the markets in a positive trend But we also know that sentiments below the market so the market below the market here at 41 thousand five ninety four and We're currently net change negative on the day. I want to put our upper structure band So this is the point where the bull trend would extend and Then also our downside pivot, which is an other lower structure point So I'm going to put on our critical range and Part of that critical range is the midpoint Which acts as a good momentum number So if we're just looking at the context context is bull trend We're identifying forty four thousand seven eighty is the point that the market needs to get above to really Establish a new extension higher. We know the buying energy is way below the market here And we know in a bull trend it should be stabilizing above the directional if it's good So it's been doing that. I'm going to add our validation levels on here So what this does is it helps to identify and validate? price action from the directional to the critical range extremes and So currently the market's being contained within what we call our critical range positive and negative. So here on the price map Basically the market is rotating around the directional. It's still firm But it hasn't been able to validate up through The critical range positive or negative which would give us insight into a potential to move to the upside or correct So currently the digestive action, we're in a bull trend and we're basically spinning our wheels waiting for some news You know if we're in this state and we're in this structure What strategy themes are in play? Well currently with sentiment so far below the market the real buying energy is down here So optimally we're looking for a sharp break to buy off this 41,000 594 level Another opportunity is what we call a buy DP reversal. So here's our downside pivot Would be the for the market to fail Not be able to follow through To sentiment and then pop back up above this 42,000 960 level and that would be a reversal So first it has to go below here and then come back above and that would be another By opportunity and that makes sense. So if you're in a bull trend bull trends don't go up linear You have corrective breaks and So instead of catching a fallen knife looking for a reversal and looking for a reversal at a key structure point. So our key structure points to the downside or 42,000 960 And the big number is 41,594 so currently On the so if the market is going to correct we call that hedge thing So hedge strategy, what are our hedge strategies? Well, hedge strategies if the market Breaks out above our the upside pivot it breaks out above 44,780 and can't hold it starts trading up here and then all of a sudden starts trading below there That would be what we call a sell up reversal That didn't happen Or hasn't happened The other strategy is a sell dir breakout. And so that's a failure here below the directional And that breakout needs to validate below 43,320 So we couldn't get the breakout to validate and the market is still churning sideways Day's not over still time there's still plenty of time left for a move And currently that move is going to be defined by a breakout of this range this 44,231 44 43,320 So we're in this digestive zone This theme is what we call a non-event theme where the mark, you know, it's basically a cr rotational trade So where the market is trying to make a decision It's winding up it's winding up around the directional within this zone So if we do start to roll over here and we start trading below 43,681 basis The Bitcoin perpetual contract Uh And we we start to hold negative structure and we fail here That would be a tell that we're going to see more follow through on the corrective side The fact that we can't trade back, you know, the fact that we're still stabilized above here is still positive But we unless we're getting trading back above 44,200 We're still on this sideways man. We start trading back above, you know, this this price point And we're holding positive structure Then there's the potential that we're going to see a resumption of this big positive momentum So let's take a look and see what the order book is telling us here You currently we're trading in the middle, which is not interesting. It's also very it's you know The fact that we've been in a non-event trade is not interesting as well You know based on our structure, we're looking to participate in the market at more at the extremes You know and we're a bull trend. We want to buy a break And if the market breaks structure, you know, we could lean into that as an opportunity Or if the market gives us a move to the upside and they can't hold it, that's another opportunity For now, we're just we're trading in, you know, a tight range one thing Uh based off the analytics that we identify is reward metrics and the reward metrics for Bitcoin today the market's trading in nine hundred and ten dollars segments So basically half of that a half segment moves and full segment moves And and times two segment moves Is what we look for and you can see that, you know, here's a full segment move Basically nine hundred and ten dollars and you can see here's a half segment move So we've got the market trading within half and full segment moves, do you know, basically just calling up here So what am I looking what are we looking for here right now? We're looking for the Some insight from the order book, you know, is the market, you know, currently we're trading below the VWAP Again, it's not that interesting of a session at the moment We are trading below the previous days close You know, we have some liquidity here It's coming in at the VWAP You know, are we going to start to work negative structure? That's the key And so if the market starts to trade back Below this forty three thousand eight hundred level And we start to see this liquidity Push down and we get within this metric boundary You know, that can be a tell since we've already had this rotational trade That the markets were, you know, getting ready to break out in one direction Or we're going to get another push at at least this lower area here This validation point Conversely, if we see the market, you know, if we get a flip and we get back above the VWAP And we start to press in here and we start to base above the previous days close That's going to be a, you know, tell that we could see a potential upside breakout You know, we do have a lot of liquidity building up here off this structure So a lot of sell orders are coming in here And they've been resting here for a while I'm going to pull up a higher time frame So the the daily structure defines the structure for the period daily And so this same structure can be applied on higher time frames. So this is the weekly structure So this structure is published on Sunday night So published here And being in a bold trend Based just the weekly sentiment was way below the market at 34,982 And opening at the directional weekly directional at 39-123 And here is the similar situation that I mentioned earlier on the daily where you when you have A market that closes near its previous period high or low The market either just goes or we could see, you know, a corrective digest back down to the midpoint So we're still That's what this market is, you know, still deciding You know, we're really just turning sideways On a higher time frame It's interesting that, you know, just as You know, this methodology can apply to any time frame. So as we talk about segment moves You know, one segment moves basically the distance between two major price map levels And so we we could see that Bitcoin has made a three segment move pretty quickly And so that's it, you know, and so we have this natural You know, there's a natural pause And you know, let me put our validation numbers on here as well basis to weekly Again, sentiments way below the market You know, so this is where the real buying energy is so A lot of times the market will go sideways or correct when The enter the sentiment so far below the market But for you know, basically for the rest of the week Where are we at? and this is something that we also publish in our Trade room is a weekly outlook and kind of updating it throughout the week And so what's happened basis the weekly structure is we Immediately we started trading above the previous week's high We broke out of that critical range and here we have an extension and we get a 2a pmd move up to our upside target too And so the market rejected now it's paused here so Is that Are is so basically and we're seeing that as a reflection on the on the short time frame two that we're You know, we're rotating within this zone. So I'm going to put the daily Critical range structure on here as well So we're wrote, you know, so we're stuck, you know, so the daily structure is in alignment with the Weekly structure And so we can see that the daily upside pivot is coming into alignment with the upper metric boundary of the weekly upside target too And that the daily directional is in alignment with this validation point On the weekly it's 43,654 And that the daily sentiment Is in alignment with, you know, the top of the critical range Here So for bitcoin currently with this, you know monster rally that we have You know, basically the markets clued into 43,600 So as long as we're above 43,600 The the rally's still powerful There's still a lot of powerful energy in there and we want to see, you know, so we want to see that in the order book we want to see the Liquidity starting to build up below here and push it and we want to see it push it through the The the VWAP to get some momentum to go eat through this liquidity Because if we get a failure from 43,600 That's going to be a towel that, you know, we one we've already attained this target You know, absolutely this market can continue on this aggressive run But we you know, this is a this is a good target for the for this market and and it's given us a pause So it's proven that it's a valid point And is that all we're going to get is a sideways digest here And if we are we're going to digest above 43,600 And we're going and then it's going to gear up for a new move up to 47,122 That would be the objective for the week for you know, this you know a full on breakout objective Would target this 42,122 And it's making a decision here. So so risk-wise if you're trading options, you're looking at the 43,500 strike Is a good strike as your base And as long as that holds everything's all good a failure here is going to signal a break in momentum And it's going to downshift things it's going to what it's going to do It's not necessarily mean that a sharp break down to you know down to these levels down to 41,500 let's say But it's at least going to mean that we're going sideways And it's going to pull suck a lot of volatility out of the market when it does that So that that's the trigger here at 43,600 Again, we're you know, right now we're in the middle the market's not giving us a lot of good insight You know that what happens is you know, you want to focus your signal acceptance When you're trading with it when near where the market's in alignment So that's what these boundaries identify where market alignment is, but I wanted to show the You know how the daily and the Longer term structure, you know are working together Going up to a higher time frame now I go backwards typically when you're breaking things down You're going to go start from the higher time frame and go to the lower time frame But we've got some really interesting things going on here in bitcoin with this big rally and a lot of excitement It's good for the bit. You know, it's good for crypto getting people back interested in the market Then it's classic for this thing, you know You can runs it up and takes takes money away. So basically On basis the monthly You know when we started out the month You know sentiment was way below the market on the monthly as well And that was a similar situation where we basically closed near the the high of the previous month And this is this is classic, you know, typically, you know, why would a market? You know, if a market does close it the higher the low of the previous period It's a sign of a trend moves. It's a you know, things are moving in a specific direction And that makes sense and so then When the market it's either gonna, you know, just continue on that momentum Or it's gonna stall and pull back And so that that those are good tells at the start of any period And and we got that at the start of the month We immediately traded up through the previous month's high So that was a tell that hey this market's telling us that we're stronger It's a bull trend we were trading above the previous month's high We know the market's at a positive trend. So let's put the critical range on and so we know that this, you know The 39709 level for the start of the month and this structure will hold through through the balance of the year You know, this was the key point And we had, you know, we had an initial surge there and again Here's a 180 dmd move on, you know, this is a one segment move on the monthly Up to the upside pivot the market gave us a pause No, let's put the validation points on So this was interesting here when we took out the the previous month's high It was also a validation point for a move up to the upside pivot And then here is our breakout over the critical range And then it finally gets validated and then You can these trading you can use these this, you know, basically climb in a ladder here And as we validate through here, this told us that this breakout's true And if that breakout's true, that means it targets, you know, a two segment move. So that's one two So we've attained our two segment move basis to monthly as well And so this is just kind of a natural area to protect yourself You know, so on on the higher timeframes the market has had this, you know, it's an aggressive Trend right now that has not been broken. So This is not a You know a sell opportunity. It's more of an opportunity to protect your profits But, you know, we haven't generated a break in structure yet. There's no break in structure But it's going sideways And there is a likelihood that we could see a corrective pullback We don't need to hasn't given us that tell and then, you know, as we go down into the shorter timeframes We can get more insight into what's happening and we've seen that, you know, basis that the daily structure You know, this 43,600 level is a good momentum level Because if we break that we could easily come back to the next run on the ladder You know a full APMD move which brings us back down to 42,000 kind of this area 41,500 It doesn't and it it doesn't affect the monthly bias Because the monthly the this monthly Momentum positive momentum biases is validated As long as we're above the critical range Basically, we look like this So we've broken out up here So as long as we pull back to the top of this critical range were the bull trend still in force Because we know that it needs to Break out above here and then trade back underneath the upside pivot to give us that reversal signal to say that We're in a hedge thing So it could it could come all the way down here and it's it's still a break to buy And so what we're looking at here is, you know, where is that initiation point for potential correction? Where do we need to protect ourselves and where do we need to protect these profits? Because if we do get a break in structure here Doesn't mean we're going to you know, we we could stabilize You know, we could stabilize quickly right here at 43,200 But we you know, and we could easily come down here when corrections are hard to identify But just just having the awareness that okay Markets in a positive trend It tamed a target. It's going sideways. It's it's performing to the expectation Hasn't broken structure. Everything's still all good And this gives us better clarity too that if we start trading above This, you know, 44,400 level that things could really start to move forward again Because that's the the monthly ut2 And that's that's coming into play here on the weekly basis as well Little higher at 44,000, you know 521 basically the current highs And then with the daily, you know, this is telling us we could get a little lead on things because if we get it We've coiled up within this critical range zone And We're we're dead set in the middle. So this is absolutely, you know, a no-trade area But as the market moves here Or here That's when we're going to clue into, you know, what's happening to this liquidity So these sellers have said hey, this has been a good move And you know, we're looking to exit and it's coming in basically this is coming into alignment with the weekly the weekly levels So the 44,521 It's coming into alignment with, you know, and that's basically the pre, you know, the the current high area So you've got this liquidity. It's kind of loaded up there saying, okay, you know, we'll take we'll take these prices here And so if we did get a failure here below this 43,600 and we start trading back below here Does does this liquidity shift down? Yeah, that those are the big tells You know, as you you're going from the microstructure to the macro structure and you're watching these You know, so some players are in here putting some size down saying we're going to sell it here Well, if we start to break structure to the downside, is that a valid correction? Or are they just going to sit here? And if they're just going to sit here, it's more of a tell that Yeah, you know If we get a failure here, maybe it's just a probe another one of these probes and it's just going to probe down Versus having them shift. It's telling us. Hey, we're going to see a bigger move We're going to be a see a bigger shift And then also if we start to trade back above this 44,200 level, we're starting to trade here And we see, you know, we start to see liquidity build up below here And we start to see this basing above here as we're moving higher And then do these do they these bids get pulled? You know, do they start to pull these bids? You know, that's that's a good tell that it's basically then opening the door Right, you know, like you've got this imbalance here You know, so if you take out this liquidity, you could see a quick pop Up into this area because this is where the liquidity is back built up So when you see, you know, the order book in alignment with structure that gives you confidence And then just watching, you know reading, you know, what are people, you know, what's happening here? And if they start, you know, so if we do start to move higher Is this liquidity going to stick or are they going to pull it? So those are just different tells that you can look for in the order book You know, what are the players doing, you know, that I just get like to keep it simple And, you know, I'm looking for validation for what I, you know, what the market structure is telling me Market wants to do because the market's always doing that Any questions on that? Yeah, I post, you know, I post these charts and, you know, there's lots of color coding there and, you know, basically You know, at first glance it looks complicated, but, you know, just to really break it down For you It's not, you know, the, you know, here we're just basically identifying the previous session period And you can see here's the previous session low previous session high Your previous day high previous day close and the close is based off of UTC time So basically crypto, you know, is standardized to roll at, you know, 12 am UTC time And for us, the R level is the over under number So be, you know, buy breaks above yourself the rallies below here So really, you know, if you're looking at anything that we're posting, you know The R level is the money point that is risk that's your risk for the trade period, you know, wherever that is And what time frame you're working on, you know, so this is the daily Sentiment bias, you know, so I can also post the The weekly on here too Which is way below the market So, you know, this is kind of typical bull action where, you know, you've got, you know, here's your daily sentiment Weekly sentiment monthly sentiment So when you're looking at sentiment, you know, if we get if we did have a market that trades below the daily sentiment You know, basically, you know, price is trading here. What is it? It's a corrective trade And it's correct to trade down to these price points And so just, you know, observing price action within the context of the sentiment bias And if you know this is risk, you know, a lot of times this will, you know, the markets will gravitate towards Um sentiment because this is where the liquidity is So that's the big momentum number for the day and the other big momentum number is there is the pivot point Which is the directional And that's the yellow line So This, you know, this is a rotational number in any time that sentiments what, you know Sometimes sentiment will be equal to the directional and that just tells you that there's a lot of it You know, the energy is wound up the market rate to do something So those are any time with that structure and we call those regimes You know, when you're in that regime that the are the sentiment is equal to the directional It's a power stance. It's like things are ready to go something's going to happen And when and when sentiment's far away It's a it's a a tell that hey heads up, you know Sentiments, you know away from uh the directional And if you know if if the market can't hold that bias, you know, so with sentiment below the market, it's a positive bias Uh, you could have a corrective move and you could have a corrective move down to sentiment And it could be quick And so it's always a you know, it it just Changes the context. That's we you know as we you know went through the beginning You know, that's where I'm looking to identify. What's that context? And then they the critical range is you know, really the hard structure Of you know, the red is more of a I don't want to say, you know Don't like to use the term resistance because it's not resistance. It's a structure point, but it's an upper structure point it's going to act like resistance And the downside pivot is the lower part of that critical range And so that's really the hard structure that the market is making a decision with it It's kind of the area of indecision you can think of as a behavioral Structure zone And that's the really the foundation of the market every day. That's the market structure where you have the sentiment bias Along with the critical range And the direction will be in the midpoint But you can see that the it's not a symmetrical midpoint and sometimes it is Sometimes it's not Right now it's skewed to the down, you know, it's skewed to the lower half And that's it just is what it is. It's just the math But that's the that's the structural foundation So if you know any kind of other technical work that you're doing or any or you're any subjective bias You know, how does that play out within this structure? And then how does that and what's happening in the microstructure within that structure? And again, this is the daily, right? So then, you know, we also have This this weekly structure And we know, you know, we and we know we have the previous days This is also the previous day's high point here. And that's where you're seeing this liquidity building up So you know that But the daily is telling us that the actual the the, you know, resistance is actually through that liquidity So that's insight So the market could easily come if the market does firm up here We start to get a bid we start to eat through this liquidity It could push into this upside pivot area and then find and then that's where it can exhaust and you can see, you know We've got a lot of sellers here building up within this zone And the other part of the critical range is the, you know, validation points So each one of these points means something different, right? And so and it's going to change your tactics when the market's trading around those levels So if you're trading around this level, you know, it's a dynamic level That could that could turn into a multi-segment move And if you're trading at the critical range extremes, that's that's different as well because that's going to tell us That gives us insight that hey, where this is a major structure high point This is a major structure low point the market's going to make a decision here And if we're trading around the directional, we know that's a pivotal number It's rotational. It can be messy like this. It can also be the start of a momentum move So we, you know, we want to be aware of that Let me throw on yesterday's action here This is our Sierra charts overlay So, you know, here's a, you know, here's a classic situation with the direction on the market rotates around it But then it's the beginning of a major move You know, this is the pivotal point, you know, here's classic. It opens right at the direction just goes Just open this up a little bit, you know, basically just having awareness of how, you know, this is this is the power of the price map where You're able to standardize your tactics Around what's more likely to occur and anticipated behavior You know, you know, this is a rotational number But you also know that, you know, in this situation Sentiments below the market if the market's good, it's going to hold above the directional It's holding above the directional. It can make a new impulse. It can where can it go? It can go up to the upside pivot Same with this state It's above that, you know, it's You know, it's it's it's always the same Keep it simple And you can and it's easy to identify when there's when there's an issue or not You know in the critical range is the containment and then here you had, you know, you're getting that That pop, you know, this is just telling us that hey, yeah, that was a this is a good structure point And then it holds that structure point And then we roll over to the next period We get, you know, and again, it breaks out to the upside Here we get the breakout to the upside and it pulls back and holds the structure and this is just classic climb in a ladder And the major the the target levels are just extensions of the critical range You know, if we break out of the critical range expectations, we're going to see a two APMD move Well, on this session we had this, you know, terrible sideways trading We get a breakout finally and it gives us a, you know, a full APMD and that critical range breakout two APMDs from the directional This one followed through late in the session. So we didn't really have the energy Here we have a full, you know, almost, you know, basically, you know, three APMD breakout Here's a two APMD breakout So it's giving you your trade vision. These are your trade targets And then the minor levels are the validation points. So how the market behaves within the critical range So here, you know, it's kind of similar with a little bit what we've got going on today Where we had this rotational trade within the CRs And then then the market decided, okay, we've had enough digestive action And it's time to make a move and so then you can see how it starts to stabilize here And this is again, this is where your signal acceptance is and where you're looking to align What's happening in the order book With real-time events With the market structure You know, so these real-time events happening here within structure. What's going on We've rotated Now we're starting to base above here. We get a validation that the market wants to go higher And then the order book is going to give us some insight more likely It did and that's just telling us, hey, we're there's potential for a breakout We take out the previous days high Take out the upside pivot and make a run and so Just as the interior Validation points, you know are given as guidance to moves from the directional and when when we when those are validated The crx plus and crx minus are the validation points for a critical range breakout And so here in the order book we can see You know, we can see this liquidity all built up within this zone because this whole zone is good So you've got, you know If the market does start to firm up eats up this liquidity We'll eat through it, but it's going to come right into a wall and that you know, which is the upside pivot And then that's the validation point the other thing with the the structure it helps us to be patient You know, if we get into a trade here buy or sell you throw a dart at the board You know, what's your risk? Well, you got if you're selling it you got a risk above here And if you're buying it you've got a risk below here You know, it's a coin flip versus if if the market comes into this area and we're buying it And so, you know, we're we're risking You know 100 150 bucks But what's our opportunity? Well, if we're right, you know, we're going to see a you know, a thousand dollar move At least, you know, we're looking for a full segment move out of here And that's what that's where the trade vision comes into play You know and understanding the regimes understanding the structure helps you to be proactive on your risk management You know, so if you're running a system, you know, where are you at risk? What's the opportunity? Aggressively adjusting your profit give back That's what this structure does and then when you have that in alignment And here we have that alignment with our cloud notes You're able to see real-time events within structure And that's what it's all about So a big part of what we do is providing you with a statistical baseline You know a great book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman In one of its quotes is the outside view offers more accurate predictions than the inside view And so with that it's basically saying is that you know, we live our life and you know making intuitive decisions You know, yes, no this that we don't think about it And then all of a sudden we if we have to do some calculations we take a pause and we and we start to figure things out And and that's when we slow the decision process down And how that helps in trading is that when you're making those intuitive decisions, you know, real quickly your cognitive bias can skew it So you can get anchored on something, you know, some technical study some what something somebody said And it can it can skew your decision or it can make you pause and not get out of a trade You know when you need to not fast enough You know, and so having a statistical baseline that you can kind of fact check yourself against You know, all of a sudden you have better clarity You know, what's true. You know, what's more likely to occur And you can and it helps you to act more, you know, effectively and faster And so, you know, and what it does, you know, it slows down that decision-making process It's more methodical and it helps to minimize those biases And and that's our that's the biggest edge that we provide to traders with our price map and our structure And all the tools that we have So I hope you enjoyed the presentation I welcome you all to come to dharma capital dot trade Sign up for our analytics You can follow me on x We're posting every day. And so, you know, you have a little better insight to what all these the colors on these charts mean What we're talking about and Hopefully they'll give you an edge I take a look at our youtube channel. We've got some YouTube videos that go over different things and I'm doing some posts on longer term outlooks as well and we publish a Weekly outlook on bitcoin and our sub stack That you can sign up for and feel free to dm me and our discord channel So enjoy the rest of your day and good trading. Cheers