 This is Covering the Spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Fang. What is going on everybody? Welcome on into Covering the Spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com as we are taking a look at week 11 of the NFL season from a betting perspective and breaking down the best values on the board with Edward Egros coming up next. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Ed Fang. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and find Ed on Twitter at the Power Rank as well. Ed, I am excited for this week because we get the Ed and Edward show once again, but also we get Houston against Baltimore and I was trying to decide, I was like trying to figure out my mind, a list of quarterbacks who would be good in a bad situation. I think that Deshaun Watson is on that list and I think Patrick Mahones and Russell Wilson are. I think that Lamar Jackson is kind of like teetering on that edge. It's a very short list. We get to see two of the most exciting quarterbacks in football in the same game. I am pumped for that. How are you doing? I'm doing great. Yeah. I'm pumped for that as well. It's definitely a game I want to talk about and cover in the future. We will. Edward's going to talk about that one as well. Make sure you follow Edward Egros on Twitter at Ed with Sports. You can also find him on TVGs. More ways to win. I've got a couple of podcasts over on vocal. One of those is called Hazard Play, which we will discuss because they talk betting, but they also talk bad college football games and Northwestern is in one of those this weekend. Edward got his master's from Northwestern, so we can get a little bit about that too. Other one is Cowboys Deep Cuts and the Cowboys, very frustrating. Someone who enjoys Dak Prescott right now. We'll talk about them as well. Of course, Edward teaches analytics at SMU. Edward on Twitter at Ed with Sports. Yesterday on the College Football Betting Podcast, we talked with Ed about his numbers. He's got a little crash course in college basketball betting too, via Ed talking about how his model works, what numbers go in there, and how we can find some key numbers to look at when it comes to college basketball. So, the previous week 12 of college football broke down the implications of the college football playoff rankings, which just came out, and a couple of teams, Playoff Odds, Clemson, Minnesota, we talked about the Pac-12 as well. To find that, just search for Covering the Spread wherever you get your podcasts and also rate interview the podcast. That is a huge help to us. Thank you to those of you who have done so already because that does help us out a ton. Now, before we get to Edward, we got to go back to last week and talk about week 10 of the NFL. We had Joe Straussky on. Let's go through that, and then we'll take a look at week 11. All right, last week we had Joe Straussky a 670 the score, and you bet on a previous week 10 of the NFL, followed Joe on Twitter at Joe0670. He mentioned betting Green Bay minus five and a half against the Panthers. Ned, I think you had the Panthers side of this one. The Packers covered there by a yard. The Lyman tried to pull McCaffrey across, super close call. Somebody missed a block. I think McCaffrey glides in there if someone gets a block on, I think, Fackerel, who just came storming through there and hit him in the backfield or at the line of scrimmage. I mean, if an offensive lineman's trying to pull a dude across the line of scrimmage, that means he didn't block somebody. Maybe it was him. Maybe it was someone else. You know, I mean, yeah, I like that bet. I would still make it again. I still have a lot of questions about this Green Bay defense. We don't get to test that this week. But there are many opportunities in the future. I didn't talk about this on the show, but I had the under in that game. And they would have had I had 47 and I think it would have been 46 had McCaffrey scored and they would have gone for two. So I was very nervous that whole time and it was it was a sweat. That was for sure. Well, it was it was tough if you were a Packers fan, right? Because they really couldn't stop them. You know, towards the end of the game, they had a 14 point lead. Carolina does the appropriate thing. It goes for two when they were down eight, which I just just love because that's the right thing to do by the analytics, you know what you have to do next time. You still have an opportunity to tie the game when you score again like they did, even if they didn't make them the two point conversion. So yeah, I don't know. Like I actually have a friend of mine's big Packers fan. He doesn't seem to be concerned about their defenses. I am for him, but we'll see how that all shakes out the rest of it would be a concern for me if my team got shredded by Kyle Allen. I will say exactly exactly. Kyle Allen has been a below average quarterback this year from an efficiency perspective. And if he does it in Lambo like Andy or in those conditions like Andy Reed shredding you to the back of quarterback. It's Andy Reed. That's whatever Philip Rivers has been a good quarterback for a long time, whatever. Kyle Allen and Lambo different story. So I think that we'll be talking about Green Bay's defense. I'm sure at some point in the future, no points allowed this week, though, because they're on a buy. Joe mentioned the under on Vikings Cowboys at 48 points. That one did go over at 52 points there mention the 49ers minus six. We recorded that on Thursday and that was a Monday night game, which means we didn't have injury reports. It was not clear at that time that George Kittle would miss. They also lost Emmanuel Sanders, Joe Staley and Matt Brita during the game. So Seahawks won that game outright in overtime with Bengals. We should talk about that game a little bit, man. That was an insane game. Yeah, both teams kind of sucked in some sense, you know, like allowing one of the sloppiest fumble is that a word football games I've seen at the professional. I've watched a lot of Northwestern football. So I've seen a lot of sloppy football, but at the professional level and I watched Miami against was it Washington, right? I think that game I watched Jets Giants. It was one of the sloppier games I've seen. I don't I don't expect that from a Russell Wilson and Kyle Shanahan matchup. Yeah, and and and it was just I mean it actually added a lot to the excitement, but I feel one like both teams have about 300 yards. Both teams fumble it to the other defense for a touchdown couple. A lot of bad throws down the stretch to Wilson through the pick. Ropla through almost a few picks. Yeah. So I really feel like the tie should have been the result there, right? Yes, exactly. And Shanahan mentioned like the thought process behind, you know, not going for the tie, whether you should have, etc. But if you could have gotten out of that game with a tie, probably would have been, you know, an ideal route there. Joe mentioned the Bengals plus 10 against the Ravens, but Lamar Jackson did Lamar Jackson stuff there. And finally, he had the Dolphins plus 10 and a half. The spread didn't move in that game, even when it was announced that Jacobi Berset was out, which was weird. I want to hear your thoughts on this, but the Dolphins won that one outright. The spread was 10 and a half the entire week. It never moved. Even when Berset was announced out, I found that very odd. I didn't feel good enough about it to bet the Dolphins, but it was very weird to me that that the market view there is being zero difference between Brian Hoyer and Jacobi Berset. I mean, I don't think I'm as shocked. I've never been high on Berset. He's had a bunch of good games, you know, in games that I've been against Indianapolis. So I certainly remember those, but you know, you look at his PFF grades and not particularly good. Brian Hoyer is a long time NFL backup. I think he looked pretty good in that one game that he was in. He gets a seal as he did. Yeah. So I guess I'm less surprised. Yeah. We were talking about in the slack on Number Fire and I found it kind of weird. But obviously that's hindsight. You know, I didn't have enough confidence in to bet it. So what am I saying? Who am I to talk? But still, I thought it was very interesting there. A final one was I had Atlanta's team total over 19 because I was too chicken to bet the spread. And then Atlanta won that game outright. They scored 26 points. But like, I liked Atlanta's offense. I did not think they would come close to doing that. There was a reason that I did not bet the spread in that game. It was because I thought their defense would get torched. Like that's just a weird game. Yeah. No, it's a weird game. And like, you know, these teams that are playing well, like New Orleans and San Francisco, the market kind of gets out ahead of that. Usually the numbers are like, hey, you know, hold on. And, you know, for instance, like, I mean, my numbers had San Francisco by two at home. Not something I wanted to bet just because of that number. But you always get that kind of situation with these teams that are, you know, have a really good chunk of the season and maybe expect a little regression. Right, exactly. And it made sense that it happened. It did not make sense the fashion in which it happened. But definitely a fun one there. We'll break down week 11 in just one second. But first, if you want to get in on the action, check out the FanDuel Sportsbook and place your first bet today. If you lose, FanDuel will give you a refund up to $500 in psych credit. Visit sportsbook.fanduel.com for more details. Terms and conditions apply. Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, or Indiana, or of course, any of the retail locations as well. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. Let's bring in Edward Egros now. Follow Edward on Twitter at edwitsports. Of course, you can find him on TVGs, more ways to win. Also, the podcast on vocal hazard play and the Cowboys' deep cuts. Let's get Edward's thoughts on week 11 for the NFL. Let's welcome Edward Egros back into covering the spread, Edward. You've been a staple on the show here since its inception. So thank you for coming on once again. How are you doing today? I am doing very well. It's not nice to be a staple in something, you know? That's how I like to live life, is to at least have that sort of foundation, that sort of level of consistency somewhere. We can be your foundation. I am very okay with that personally and I would like to keep it that way because it's not to talk to you about these things and especially now because Edward, I feel like we kind of had to have you on this week because on hazard play, which is one of your podcasts on vocal, you talk about betting terrible college football games and Northwestern plays UMass this week and they are a 40 and a half point favorite of Fandall Sportsbook. So please, please tell me that this game will be discussed on hazard play this week. Ask and ye shall receive. It is one of our two featured games on hazard play. First off, UMass is a pod favorite as we like to say in the bit. That makes sense. That makes a lot of sense. Yeah, Akron, UTAP, Bowling Green, they're also pod favorites. Now other people would refer to them as other things and I'll let you figure out what I mean by that. But yeah, UMass is an interesting spot and I think so is Northwestern and not to sort of dig too deeply into my rationale or how we're going to discuss this game. But my biggest question when it comes to this game is can Northwestern score 41 points or 40 points? Just having the ball against anybody, are they capable of scoring that much? So that's my first question. And my second question is if they do, can UMass at least get like a touchdown or 10 points or something like that to where you now need Northwestern to score 50 to cover? Right. Well, that's what Ed DM me the line earlier this week and my question to him was like, how many defensive touchdowns does Northwestern have to score? Because their offense isn't putting up 40. I know that. I know what UMass is defense is so dreadful. But both the units are basically bottom, bottom, bottom of the barrel. Like, I don't know, man. Like, I think Northwestern will go up more up tempo because like they are very aware of how bad they are against bad teams and they slow things down a bit a lot, I should say. But like, it's so hard to like, I think they need two defensive touchdowns to cover this number. Like, it's insane. They probably do. And I guess though, if you're playing a higher pace of play that gives UMass some more opportunities to get, say, maybe two or three field goals and then like it's almost as if like for Northwestern to comfortably win this game, it needs to be slow tempo, which then means they're not covering 40 and a half. Man, this is bad. I don't know. I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this, the full thoughts on hazard play. So I'll be sure to check that out. But this game is, it's going to be rough. Now, the other podcast you have Edward on vocal is discussing the Dallas Cowboys Cowboys deep cuts and they've been a weird team to diagnose this year. So if you were to look at Dak Prescott's numbers, you would think that they would be a team to buy right now because Dak has been awesome. He's been like, if we didn't look at record, he'd be an MVP contender. So do you have enough faith in the coaching staff here to justify buying the Cowboys or should we assume the self-inflicted sputtering continues here? I feel like I'm getting into professor mode here when I explain this because granted, you guys know this already, but sometimes I think it's good for a friendly reminder of what terms like inefficient means. And inefficient doesn't mean terrible. It doesn't mean they don't know what they're doing or incompetent. It just means that the offense could be running better than it already is. And for a long time, Jason Garrett and this Cowboys offense has been running inefficently with how much they run Zeke when they run Zeke, things like that. Well, inefficiency will cost you very close football games. And it's happened over the course of the last few years. Now that's seven and one mark towards the end of 2018. Everything was clicking. They wanted to use a Mari Cooper more and so it became more efficient. So they were winning those close games, but it's as if they didn't learn those lessons at all once they got into this year and once the load management quote unquote for Zeke was sort of taken off to where Zeke could sort of run at will and run at full strength then all of a sudden that inefficiency sort of came back to haunt them. And I think that's exactly what's going on here. The more I do this, the more I think whenever we see an odd coaching decision on the field that it's entirely based upon who they trust. They have practiced with these players. They've evaluated these players to a T. It's not that coaches don't know anything. Sometimes they overthink things or they don't quite think of the entire context. That certainly happens. But when it comes to Jason Garrett, I watched Dak Prescott when he practiced a lot with the Cowboys when I was covering them on a regular basis for local television. And Dak was never a great practice quarterback, never ever. He always had errant throws, never seemed like he had total command of the offense, but then you'd put him in a football game and he looked like a completely different guy. And I look at Jason Garrett and go, well, he has these same data points in practice as he does in games. And in fact, he has more data points because he watches practice far more than say I do in certain windows. So who does he trust more? Does he trust Dak who has had errant throws some times in his career? Or does he trust Zeke, which with this offensive line tends to be a little bit more reliable, but it is naturally inefficient. So on the one hand, I understand the decision-making at the end of that Minnesota game. But on the other hand, at some point you do have to trust your starting quarterback. And I am still not sure Jason Garrett does. And that may ultimately be his undoing is just not trusting the guy he's been given. If you don't trust Dak, then either you need a coach who does or you need to have a quarterback who you trust. And I'm still thinking there's a bit of a disconnect there. Yeah, that's really interesting. Edward, we got to see Dak Prescott's hips on the Sunday Night broadcast. Are your hips as flexible as the man who runs the show in Dallas? That flexibility is second to none. I'm surprised that's not used in scouting reports more often. I mean, we are in this next gen stats era. We really need to have more torque and degree measurements that can be used to help us evaluate players. Let's make a spider chart of torque and things like that. And I think that's going to go a long way towards power ranking our quarterbacks for the next draft. That sounds good. So Edward, let's talk about Texans at Ravens. Ravens are a four and a half point favorite. The total is 49 in the NFL MVP race. So the Marjaxon is plus 260 behind only Russell Wilson at plus 160. And just Deshaun Watson is six to one. Any thoughts on either the MVP race or this game? So I'll start with the MVP race and I almost would love your thoughts on this where I wonder if MVP race is an individual awards. It's a more volatile market than say games from week to week. In large part because I remember when Aaron Rodgers was the favorite to win this thing and now I think we would all agree that unless the Packers win out and all of a sudden we see a completely different quarterback behind center, Aaron Rodgers has no chance to win this. So I wonder if that market's naturally more volatile to where because we haven't seen Houston a little bit and other quarterbacks have had great performances or at least performances that have won them really good games like Lamar Jackson against the Patriots, like Russell Wilson against the previously undefeated Niners. So I wonder if Deshaun Watson is one of those by low situations where because we haven't seen him in a while all of a sudden we're forgetting about him. I think I think Watson is in a great spot personally for him to possibly win this whole thing. Fifth and total QBR fifth and the new metric that Ben Baldwin created combining a completion percentage above expected and EPA per play love that metric by the way. He's fifth in that department where Watson I think does have a disadvantage is historically the MVP winner. It comes from the leader of the team that scores the most points. Texans right now have the eighth have the eighth most points per game right now. But if you go by winning percentage in terms of the rest of the schedule the Texans have the ninth toughest schedule of everybody in the NFL but Seattle is fourth, Baltimore is eighth. So other front runners ahead of Deshaun Watson have tougher schedules down the stretch. So putting all of that together we go, yeah, Watson has a shot at this. I think it's interesting too because he's been good and he's had like, like we talked about moments for Heisman winners. Like we talked about having that moment where you do well on a national stage. You could have made a pitch for Deshaun Watson's moment being that win on the road against the Chiefs but we haven't really seen him in a lot of big spots. He almost had that moment two and week one against the Saints. And I think that this could be another spot where he could generate that attention because they are four and a half point road underdogs. They're facing Lamar Jackson who has gotten a lot of very well-deserved and positive buzz recently given that electric run against Cincinnati and that win over New England. Like I think that we talk about buying before inflection points. Deshaun Watson has a potential inflection point coming up on Sunday in this high profile game. So think that if you want to bet Deshaun Watson you probably should get him now before Sunday occurs. Is that a correct line of thinking? I think so. I think you hit the nail on the head. If it's going to go in any one direction it's going to go towards becoming the favorite and if he becomes if he sort of falls back even more then he's not going to have an opportunity to catch up in large part because he does play in the AFC South. He hasn't played the Titans yet or Tampa Bay or Denver. Now he does have Indianapolis again which is interesting. He does have New England first of December. So that's another inflection point like you're talking about. But down the stretch there are a lot of clunkers and I would include the Titans as a clunker just because I don't think they're going to be doing enough for them to be sort of well-regarded as one of the great teams in the AFC even though I love that offense I love how it's constructed once they have a great quarterback watch out for the Titans but they're not in that point yet. So to me for Deshaun Watson to win this MVP race he pretty much has to do it now within say the next three games and then has to look you know pretty good the rest of the way and I think he can do it but these next three games I think will pretty much make or break his chances. So let's talk about this game then. We've got the the total here up to 51 and a half and the Ravens four and a half point favorites. Is this a good spot for Deshaun Watson or are you taking the Ravens here? I think the Texans can pull this off. I think they can be an outright winner here. First off the play here is the over two elite quarterbacks so I think can do whatever they want or just about whatever they want. So they'll score their points and so we could have like a 30 to 28 kind of game so I think that's possible. Second thing too is when you look at success rates certainly Baltimore is number one in rushing success rate no doubt about that and then their 10th in passing success rate which is also really really good and again let's respect Lamar Jackson the arm as well as the feet but when it comes to Houston there's sixth in rushing success rate second in passing success rate so overall Houston success rate offensively is better than Baltimore's we just don't talk about it as much because Houston is sort of that under the radar kind of team so definitely I'm taking Houston to cover and I can definitely see them winning it outright. Excellent So let's move on to Patriots at Eagles Patriots are three and a half point favorite on the road total of 44 and a half What do you see in this game? Well as far as this game is concerned I don't see an impressive rebound for New England but I think it's enough of a rebound for them to win the game I'm very much tempted perhaps to buy a point and take the Patriots at minus two and a half because I actually do think it's going to be pretty close and I'm going to borrow your rationale here and say that this insane turnover differential for New England plus 17 a good four takeaways better than second place I just don't know how sustainable that is and yeah I have the utmost respect for this New England secondary no doubt about it but you're going to have bad games it's just going to happen and that's what we saw in the Baltimore contest it's almost as if if you know you're looking at an overall average all the great performances happened at the start of the year and now this regression to the mean for this passing defense for New England is probably about to happen and what better place for that to happen is coming off a bye week where there may be a little bit of rust not to mention Philadelphia is getting a little bit healthier I don't want to say that not having to Sean Jackson explains all of the offensive woes but not having to Sean Jackson explains all of the offensive woes they need a deep threat to be effective they need a number of different weapons and when they don't have that Philadelphia becomes incredibly anemic but now it looks like they're starting to put things together and I think Philadelphia can keep this game close and the good thing too for Philadelphia is that they've had the bye week to plan they know to Sean Jackson is no longer in the plans and it sounds like J.J. Artheggo Whiteside may eventually be getting more involved and he would be a guy who would have the potential to be more of a field stretcher like Mack Hollins couldn't quite do it so I think that that's definitely interesting do you even read on the total in this game Edward or is it mostly just Pat's minus if you could buy two and a half? As far as the total around that number I am probably leaning towards the over not comfortably so it may not be something that I bite on just because certainly some of the scenarios include Tom Brady not scoring very much at all and I don't see Philadelphia say hanging 30 so that one may be a little bit nerve wracking for me and plus too I think one of the ways that Philadelphia might keep this game closest through the usage of tight ends Zach Hurts and Dallas Goddard individually have not been elite but collectively they've been a pretty good tight end duo perhaps the best tight end duo in football though I think Whitten and Jarwin with the Cowboys could certainly lay claim to that honor as well but if you're using tight ends a good bit more then I think it slows the pace down certainly doesn't create explosive plays or chunk plays so it may very well be something where Philadelphia keeps it close by slowing it down which would lean under here Okay so pretty efficient total and we want to buy the Patriots two minus two and a half and I think that what you're saying about the tight ends makes sense I was looking at sharp football stats to see their success rates with two tight end sets and I believe it was pretty good relative to three receiver sets so I think it would make sense to lean on Dallas Goddard going forward let's talk here about the Chiefs and the Chargers out in Mexico City this is the Monday Nike in the Chiefs four point favorites now at Vanduul Sportsbook the total here is 52 and a half and the Chiefs might be getting their left tackle Eric Fisher back this week meaning that they would be the healthiest they've been since week one so Edward do you view this as being a chance to buy low on this Chiefs offense which has been banged up since like halfway through the first quarter in week one? It's definitely something where I think when it comes to the skill positions the Chiefs were already on the mend getting several guys back and I know we make a big deal about that sack on third and two last week where the Chiefs could have ended it when I look at the Chiefs certainly being healthy helps a ton and this offense is going to be outright dangerous but and I hate to do this but I think this may be a serious time where we need to call into question some of Andy Reid's decision-making Kansas City ranks ninth from the bottom in fourth down conversion attempts and yes you have to take that grain with a take that stat with a grain of salt because a situation matters field position matters distance matters all of those things you know certainly if you're the number one you know team and football maybe you don't go go for it on fourth down as much but still for Kansas City to be ninth from the bottom in fourth down conversion attempts when you have Pat Mahomes as your quarterback and you have a lot of naturally close games I would be going for it more often and so I think what that does for me is say well yes the Chiefs are healthy and that's huge but if they're in another contest with another high scoring offense then I may not be so bullish on the Chiefs to say I was last year interesting you bring up a good point ever on the fourth down decision-making because you said like you know if they were the best team then you might not go for it as much and I think that's not talked about much right because fourth down going for it on fourth down is a high variance strategy because you either make it and give yourself an opportunity to score or you or you give the the opponent opponent in a short field it's it's more conservative to punt right so it's the kind of thing you want to do in close games or when you're down and you know maybe you know punting when you're up a few touchdowns in the fourth quarter isn't is an okay thing yeah exactly and I think when you look at sort of the fourth down attempt numbers the entire list you have good teams that have not attempted too many fourth downs and it doesn't mean that the stat is useless or anything like that it just means that sometimes it's a matter of well they played a lot of close games or they trust their offense more a lot of factors go into it and so I don't I don't want to be one of the one of the nerds to come in and say well you're not you know going for it on fourth down but you're not trusting the math as much no they're in situation you have to have situational awareness but yeah Kansas City has played a lot of close games and they don't have the record that they did last year and I do think that is a team that you can point to and say well you should be going for it on fourth down more often and they're not and you have the offense that you should be able to trust in those high leverage situations and it's just not happening and you know as as many accolades as I've had for Andy Reid over the years this is one where I go I've got some real question marks here in terms of him just being a little bit more forward thinking well situational football too has been always kind of the the black spot on Andy Reid you know where people are questioning timeout usage end of game management and fourth down decisions may be up there as well so with that in mind do you ever read on the total or the spread in this game or are they pretty efficient to you well as someone who believes the chargers can win eight to nine games I'm still taking Kansas City here at minus four at some point I think my homes is due for a 50 point outing and yeah I mean 50 he's capable of this and I don't know what that's going to happen but it could happen very soon especially if everybody's on the mend again going back to my point earlier when I was talking about the Cowboys having Eric Fisher back may not necessarily mean that the left tackle position just gets insanely better though it could it may also simply mean that the chiefs just trust the protection more for Pat Mahomes it may be trust more than anything else it could be a placebo effect or anything else and not to discount how good Fisher is but with that sort of quote unquote placebo effect all of a sudden you're trusting my homes to throw deep more because you know the protection is going to be a good bit better or you are going to run to the left side perhaps on quarterback designs more often than you otherwise would and now all of a sudden you're scoring more points and it's not necessarily the talent on the field it's the trust from the play designers so I look at that and go at some point Kansas City is going to have an insane performance it could be as soon as Monday excellent Edward any other games or bets that on the board that you see that you like for week 11 Rams bears looks very interesting to me in large part because Jared golf has done really poorly when it comes to pressure and he's not this play action savant that we remember from a year ago and to me this is going to be a great litmus test when it comes to yeah the bears have some real real problems offensively but defensively you know they can generate a little bit of pressure they don't have the takeaways like they did last year so the bears they're not competing in the division they're they're not going to be a team that you look for in terms of a Super Bowl bid but I think they're just good enough of a challenge to where if the Rams have real serious problems then this game is going to be close or they just lose it outright and I think it's going to be a great diagnosis as far as the Rams are concerned to say alright can we trust Jared golf going forward can we trust this offensive line going forward with with all the issues that they've had or is it going to be so bad that they lose to a rather depleted Chicago team and if they are then I think that very much should sort of change our minds as far as say how LA has been structured and some of the decisions they made because it's funny we look at the Rams you know in such an interesting way analytically they've done a lot of things that have become very forward thinking but they've also given some humongous contracts to inefficient players and does that ultimately come back to bite them and are we seeing sort of an instantaneous thing where these inefficient contracts are coming back to bite them very very quickly whereas maybe we thought it would be like a two or three year effort so that's going to be one I'm interested in and then also to you know how can you not love the dolphins at this point I mean they're a covering machine baby yeah that sounds good yeah I mean going back to the Rams I think inevitably they're going to pay for giving away these big contracts but you know right what's that was that a pun was it you said they'll pay oh yes yes yeah nice yeah absolutely we'll see about next year I mean my numbers still like them a lot this year not necessarily to cover in this game but yeah down the road I definitely think they will pay I am to a flaw a Jared Goff backer I am also on the Bears plus six and a half Edward I'll be talking about that and covering the future for today so it's reassuring that you that we agree there but it also makes me sad as someone who does enjoy Jared Goff quite a bit more than I should I like Jared Goff you know just the coaching tree and the football tree that's that tends to be very small I mean Sunny Dyches coach Jared Goff at Cal Sunny Dyches is now at SMU one of my favorite people and so I like for him to do well but right losing that Steelers game that was troubling and it's troubling beyond just one contest I think it's troubling for the future having backups at left guard center and right tackle also doesn't help all that much not even Brandon cooks it's a it's a really tough situation so Edward I want to thank you for swinging by once again today like I said been a staple here so I appreciate finally getting you to we get some NFL talk which has been fun so I enjoyed that make sure check out Edwards podcast we have hazard play and also Cowboys deep cuts Edward thank you so much for taking time that if you're very busy schedule we appreciate it and good luck to you in week 11 big thank you once again to Edward e-gross for swinging by and talking about week 11 of the NFL is a pleasure to chat with Edward and get some NFL thoughts for today as well and we talked about the Cowboys with Edward and I thought he got gates really good insights about how maybe we shouldn't expect the coaching to change even though it's been inefficient so far this year what are your thoughts on something like that I thought I thought Edwards thoughts are very interesting I want to hear your thoughts on a situation like that to where it's clearly an efficient coaching but it's hard to expect a reason to change yeah I mean I don't know I mean my numbers really like Dallas's offense they really dislike Dallas's defense I think they've been mostly on the side Dallas this year but you know man I mean maybe there's a good reason for that that that the markets are less high in them because of the play calling you know you seem like you've heard like will camper talk about that a lot right on the show about the play calling and obviously that's not something that you know your pure efficiencies can kind of capture in terms of how that's gonna play out so yeah I think it's an interesting thing and definitely something I'll be keeping an eye on and his discussion around their faith in DAC was very interesting I never thought that would have been things DAC's been so good like why wouldn't they have faith but like we do see that you know faith does dictate coaching because the Titans in the beginning of the year would not throw with Marcus Mariota and now right they're still not throwing a lot of Ryan Tannehill but they've been more efficient coaching because they have more faith in their quarterback and Tannehill was legitimized that so I think it makes sense I just never thought that would have been the issue but good to hear Edwards thoughts that given how much he knows about this kind of ways team before we dive into covering the future at and I always preach searching for the best value in betting on games well look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have developed over at number fire calm it's called odds fire odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated us market compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first-party fan dual data all in one place never settle always get the best odds check out the experience for free now a number fire or it odds fire calm gambling problem call 1-800-gamber let's dive into this week's picks for us and where are you looking at for your cover in the future pick for week number 11 yeah I mean I like Houston side I got a plus 4 guess I should have weighed a little bit since 4 and a half at some books now but my numbers really like Houston on both sides of the ball there when I'm looking at adjusted success rate the offenses is fifth to Sean Watson's obviously been great and we already talked to him about about him on the show the defense is ninth and that's pretty good obviously no more JJ Watt but they did add Gary and Connolly to that secondary and this was a guy that football outsiders thought might emerge as a shutdown corner this year I really didn't look like that happened in Oakland but now he's in Houston and that certainly helps with with some of the injuries that they they potentially have on on that side of the ball and Baltimore is actually really interesting as well I mean we've talked about Lamar Jackson but I definitely ask the question is like well are they a little bit overvalued after beating New England and how much credit should we give them for beating a since he team that's really struggled this year so when I look at the pure numbers you know the offenses third and my justice success rate and the defenses is 24th and I feel like those two numbers are going to come together over the course of the rest of the season I definitely expect a little bit of regression and what Lamar Jackson is doing you know we caught we came into the season with questions about whether you can throw the ball he has been great but but Kenny keep that up can I think defensive coordinators are going to figure out a little bit better how to scheme around some of his running as well and then when you look at the defense like it really shouldn't be that bad you look at some of the PFF grades for their secondary and they're actually quite excellent so they really struggle it looks like they really struggle in the front seven they're not getting a lot of pressure but when you have that coverage I think that can lead to to better play on on the defensive side of the ball so my numbers say Baltimore is going to win by a point and a half definitely suggest value on Houston and and I'll take them that's a pretty good value you know three point gap and I think that it kind of goes back to what we were discussing both of Edward today but also with Dr. Eric eager when he was talking about the Texans in that London game where we're at a point where the markets actually may be undervaluing to Sean Watson I should have mentioned that and that was part of my thinking with us like what are we getting value on DeSean Watson again exactly and he mentioned something I don't know if it was offer or when we were talking about how DeSean Watson has changed in season he has lowered his time to throw he's getting that ball out of there they have used two different starting left tackles and three different starting right tackles over their past four I believe games and DeSean Watson sacrate is like non-existent and he always used to be a guy who loved taking sacks love to hang on the ball but he hasn't been doing that and if you take that out of DeSean Watson's game I don't know the sky's limit for that guy he's so good so I I have faith in the Baltimore offense I think that they are pretty legit I think that if I had to pick aside here though I would go with Houston because of my faith in DeSean Watson he's getting a little fuller back potentially this week that offense could be very healthy learn me tonsil and Titus Howard both got an unlimited practice on Wednesday so the offense getting healthier they're already I think undervalued so it's gonna be a fun game and I would agree with you that I prefer the Houston side of this game so Houston plus for for Ed I want to talk about my boy Jared golf and like I said I love Jared golf I am higher on him than a lot of people as an individual player but I think and I and the reason that I like Jared golf is because I think it's valuable when a quarterback shows that he can excel in a good system and golf has done that the past two years not every quarterback can take advantage of a good system and golf did that but this is not a plus system anymore and it really makes me down on the Rams right now the Rams will not have Brandon Cook for this game he's the only player on this team was a sub four five forty and we've seen the effects of lacking a field stretcher for the Eagles this year the Bengals offense was kind of okay when John Ross is healthy and then once he got hurt their offense when the tank went the tank and I think the Rams will experience something similar here with cooks missing again in the offensive line is a mess they had already lost their left guard for the year due to torn ACL then last week their center Brian Allen got hurt he had bad PFF grades but I thought he was playing a little better than that I thought he was playing okay so losing him was a downgrade I think it's a pretty big loss their right tackle Rob Havenstein also got hurt in that game he will not play believe he's actually the worst tackle on PFF but entering the year he was one of two guys I actually had faith in so losing him is not a positive their starting line will include Austin Blythe at center he knows the system because he's been there for a while but he's been a right guard most of his career and has not been a good right guard Austin Corbett will start at one of the guard spots he was acquired via trade from the Browns a few weeks ago if you can't start on the interior for the Browns yikes other starters in the offensive line will both be rookie they got Bobby Evans he was the third round pick this year and David Edwards who was a fifth rounder Evans is probably going to start a right tackle and face Khalil Mack not great Bob if you don't want to bank on Mitchell Trebisky on the road to win a bet then I think that you could just go with the Rams team total at 23 points bet the under on that and I'd be okay with that but I do think there is enough here while I will plug in the Bears at plus six and a half it's just the offensive line like my adoration of Jared Goff was because of his good system and because he excelled in that good system that good system is not existing now so I think that it's good to bet against the Rams either go with the Bears plus six and a half or under in the team total 23 points but I will go with the Bears plus six and a half in this game and what are your numbers say about the Rams they've had kind of a tough schedule so just success rate will account for that what does it say when it looks at this team. Yeah I mean it has Rams by about five in this game so definitely suggesting value on the side of Chicago if you want to throw up in your mouth and that Mitchell Trebisky so yeah you know I mean I was looking at it before like the numbers are better than you think on the Rams let me pull it up real quick. Well they face like they face like every team that's in the top five in adjusted sack rate according to football outsiders or according to football outsiders so like right get it but the and the Bears aren't there either because a keen Hicks is gone that matters so I don't think this bear of defense is like a top end one anymore I just think they'll be good enough to beat this this offensive line. No I think you're right and obviously Kaleel Mack is one of the premier rushers past rushers in the league and he's going to be a load but you know Rams wise like you know their their offense is 10th and my justice success rate and so is their defense. So when you kind of look at the metrics from the whole season they look a lot better than the Bears. Obviously there's a lot of other things going on with the injuries and stuff so I mean overall my numbers would definitely lean towards the Bears and I think that's I think that's probably the right side and the market has not budged even with the cooks Havenstein and Allen news which is interesting. I think that's worth at least a point so interesting that that has not moved and so we want the Bears plus six and a half and the Texans plus four and a half should be a pretty good week of football. I'm excited for Houston Baltimore obviously but also the Monday night game. I love watching Patrick my homes in prime time. It stinks because it means he's not on the main DFS slate but whatever you know I can I can live with that for sure. What else is going on for you at right now anything big over on the football analytics show. I know just sorry for sorry for the newsletter is where you can get a sample of my best predictions. I'm really proud of the work I did with the college football odds and both podcast like both audio and written version of looking at storylines from from the odds and yeah it's been a busy weekend. It's been fun. Yeah and you get to rest now. So you made it basically on the end of the week. I still have some stuff still have some stuff to do for me. My brain will shut down in about five minutes. So we made it. We did that and I think that you know find Ed's work on the college football playoff system because I read through that earlier this week. It's a good read for sure or listen to the podcast version as well find Ed on Twitter at the power rank. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. If you are a DFS player our DFS week 11 preview went up earlier today with myself and Brandon. You can check that out by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and make sure you check out yesterday's college football and college basketball podcast here on covering the spread search for that wherever you listen to your podcast and while you're there make sure you subscribe and rate and review as well. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald for running the video side of things for today as always and keeping us on the air and shopping up clips for the at Fandall Twitter account. Thank you Cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck with your bets across college football and the NFL in this upcoming weekend and we'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network.