 The field for the championship race in phoenix next weekend will be set on sunday out in martinsville in the Accident 500 and that dynamic does play a role in how we view things for DFS for this weekend There are guys in the cut line. There are guys in muslin situations. There are some drivers who may not care too much about this week We should consider all that Before we fill out lineups and it's a week where we do want to jam in a lot of lap leaders for DFS We're gonna do today's break down playoff implications What that all means for DFS and lets you know strategies and the top drivers in each salary tier over on fan duel calm Welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan duel podcast network in number fire calm. My name is Jim sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down sunday's Xfinity 500 may DFS perspective and let you know which drivers we should target over on fan duel calm lock is set for 2 p.m. Eastern on sunday So you can fill out lineups now until sunday We got the starting order all set which means we have all the information We need to fill out winning lineups over on fan duel So as we go along feel free to pull out those lineups and get them in while we go for today before we dive into the track Breakdown quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast See because it's not just nascar here We've got our NFL week 8 preview posted already breaking down the week 8 main slave with myself and brandy kadula giving our thoughts on The tears at running backs which quarterbacks actually have upside this week gain stacks and much more Austin Swain broke down this weekend's UFC card Tom Becky out talking NBA and NHL every weekday as well to an NFL podcast and the PGA podcast each week So a lot of stuff happening here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Make sure you hit subscribe and if while you're there leave us a rating and review if you like what you hear Hey soccer fans this season fan duel and captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest Introducing captain Morgan soccer pick them a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play the contest is simple All you got to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season You learn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win to five or three thousand dollars in prizes every single week Head over to faddle and for the captain Morgan soccer pick them today Must be 21 plus to participate for more details as a faddle comm or download the faddle fantasy app Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the captain Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for Martinsville This is the perfect convergence of factors to stack the front of the pack with our studs looking for a lap slide Primarily, that's because it's a super long race There are 500 laps here, which is tied through the longest we'll have in any race this year And it gives us 50 faddle points available for lap leaders We would be morons to ignore that upside we can get we will need those lap leaders in our lineups for this week The other factor once again is that all the contenders are at the front the final eight in the playoffs We'll start in the top eight spots on the grid And those are the guys most likely to lead laps on Sunday So if we want lap leaders, we have to pepper that zone at the front of the pack Finally, we know those guys are going to be going all out because this is the final race to determine the championship for Kyle Larson Is in he's the one guy who has No motivation outside of a trophy It's like a grandfather clock, which is the trophy at Martinsville for this week. He's not his best track So I'm okay discounting him this week unlike we did last week chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin They have cushions for this week, but it's not big enough cushions where they can completely mail things in this weekend Also, we saw Kevin Harvick last year come here with a cushion Didn't run well and miss the cutoff. So My hope is that the issues Harvick had last year will push Elliott and Hamlin to actually try this week It's like a 30 point buffer for them between them in the cut line So I would expect them to try pretty hard. I will bump them down as a result of potential motivation You know maybe they play it safe, but I still think they're worthwhile plays for DFS Joey Logano almost definitely needs a win to get any is pretty far below the cut line And then Brad keselowski Martin Truex Jr Ryan Blaney and Kyle Busch are all right on the cut line And the crazy thing is that all those guys are really good at Martinsville The past six winners at Martinsville have come from the group of guys still trying to lock up a playoff spot They've also won 10 of the past 13 at this track So those are the guys we expect to contend this weekend the cream rides to the top here and We want those lap leaders. We want the winner. It's likely to come from that group It makes things super convenient for us for this week in terms of strategy We're looking for lap leaders and for the most part when we're looking for that We can turn towards the front of the pack Last year set up at martinsville is pretty similar to this week where the top eight were at the front 500 lap race and that year Two playoff drivers made the perfect lineup and a third driver started 10th made it as well All three of those drivers led at least some laps So that's one approach. Uh, the three driver approach Could be the optimal once again this week But it's also possible It could have been more of a two driver approach because martin Truex Jr led 129 laps last year Had a tire issue didn't finish well But had he finished well, he like would have would have been inside the perfect line It would have made both him and chase elliott in the perfect lineup. They had A uh, they both had very high salaries So it would be a less balanced approach to have Truex and elliott in that perfect lineup Either way in both scenarios, we would have had two playoff drivers inside the perfect lineup And there is the potential for there to be a third lap leader Whether they're in the playoffs or or just behind the playoffs as we saw last year So I think that's our template for this week We want a minimum of two playoff drivers who can lead laps in every single lineup Ideally, I would like to get a third In there as a guy who can lead laps that maybe they won't but like If they're if I think they can leave last things they could finish well too So there's at least a safety blanket in case they don't lead laps And it may be tough to squeeze it in given that Truex is 14 5 and I want to get there chase is 14 000 but It's worth the gymnastics required to get there for me That's the studs We want at least two lap leaders ideally a third as well for the values I do think that there are some place differential options this week unlike the past couple weeks This is the first race at a 750 horsepower track at least among ovals In five races now So the finishing order last week is not going to be as reflective of who will be fast this week And that sets the starting order effectively So as a result, we do have some guys who my model likes who are starting deeper in the pack I am fine Leaning on them here because it's a long race. There will be some attrition. You can make passes at martinsville. So Those guys are fine, especially if they are super low salary and help you get to more lap leaders within your lineup As far as data to emphasize I lean more on track history at martinsville than Maybe any other track. I think it's like martinsville talladega de tona are like the top three for me It's a super unique track shaped like a paperclip. It is a single groove track Other short flat tracks on the circuit tend to have at least in theory multiple grooves martinsville really doesn't so Drivers who are good in phoenix and richman aren't necessarily good in martinsville. I do still value that data I do still want to know who has been fast in the short flat tracks this year, but I will factor in track history a lot more than usual for me other races I will look to are the short flat ones. So richmond phoenix new hampshire We've had five races so far on tracks like this including one at martinsville And those tracks and those races should give us a good idea of who will compete on sunday So to recap the overall thought process for this week We want a minimum of two playoff drivers per lineup to lead laps and I would try to jam in a third lap leader If you can if they're behind the cut line, fine, that's okay. I think you know, there's some guys back there We'll talk about in the tier by tier breakdown who I do like We'll talk about them in a bit If we might be able to get some place differential out of our value plays So keep that in mind as far as data to value jack-up track history here and finally focus on richmond new hampshire And phoenix and martinsville to get more info on who will be fast for this weekend Let's take all that put it in a blender and let you know who we are targeting this week based on the salaries Over at fan duel.com with our tier by tier breakdown Let's start things off with the elite tier that is martin truex jr. At $14,500 through kyle arson at 13 000 I love the top three guys here and truex elliot and hamlin I have to rank truex first though Very easily the big thing is that he's great at this track Truex is one three of the past four races and he could have won the race. He didn't win in that span as well believe the race where he lost to joey legato and like a Photo finish may have been the one before that strike streak started as well So he could have won like the past five martinsville races Initiating the one last year in the previous five races in the five previous races this year at short flat tracks Truex has three wins in five races a fifth place finish which led 107 laps and a race where he spun Due to a wet track early on He is the top driver in this field even after accounting for salary martin truex jr. Is a guy we build around for this week elliot and hamlin are are complicated again because They both can't win and they have won at this track But again, they both have that cushion to advance which may mean they try to play things safe again I'm okay going here still because I think that the Kevin harvick thing last year may scare them into trying so I think that that's the the plus thing here But they might do it. Um, you know between the two up for hamlin I think that he's been better on the similar tracks this year. He's got great He was great on the short runs here back in the spring I'm okay Slightly lowering my exposure to hamlin and elliot to account for like the fact that they may play things safe But I still think they're very good plays for this week. So to me It's truex one in a tier by his own elliot two Or hamlin to elliot three in a tier of their own and then larson four in a third tier among this Individual tier at the top the second tier is ryan blaney at $12,000 through William Byron at $10,000 I like this tier a lot. So I think that There is some leeway to gloss over hamlin and elliot and jump down from truex and then go down to This tier for your second guy specifically I really like the three penske drivers in ryan blaney joey legano and brad keselowski blaney is awesome at martinsville and He it was either here hamlin had the best car here back in the spring Blaney was good in the long runs hamlin good in the short runs Blaney led 157 laps. He had a fourth place average running position He's been good at this track in the past. He can make a ton of passes. So Blaney my favorite guy in this tier legano not as good at martinsville specifically But has really good speed in the 750 package and it's like he's been bad at martinsville Again, he did win here back in 2018. He beat truex in the line photo finish But 309 laps there That was in a low downforce package as well So 2019 is kind of weird for track history, but 2018 was good legano won that race He led 234 laps in the spring race last year also in the same package He has finished fourth third and sixth since they went back to the low downforce package So I like legano Despite the fact he's not quite as good at martinsville as blaney has been keselowski has struggled a bit in this package this year He was good in new hamster though, which is a pretty key indicator for this week and a bunch of top fives in martinsville for him recently I'm gonna rank these guys blaney one legano two keselowski three With the reason ranking keselowski lower being that he hasn't been as good in this package so far this year But I wouldn't be shocked if I wanted being overweight on all three of those guys Just with a way a lot of sprake for this week Kyle busham okay being a bit lower on just because the 750 package hasn't really been his friend this year He was better in the playoff races. You're looking at richmond martinsville or richmond and bristol and darlington But still a little bit lower on him. So I'm gonna rank this tier Blaney one legano two I'm gonna go with keselowski three william byron four and kyle bush number five The mid-range on fangirls christva bell at $9,500 for eric amarola at eight thousands If you're looking for a lower salary driver who can lead laps Outside of byron who is 10,000 I would point to christva bell here at $9,500 bell is outstanding on short flat Tracks and then he did in the extended series too. So it's not like a small sample thing He's just good His aggregate average running position on the short flat tracks is the seventh best in the sport so far this year ahead of Three different playoff drivers. He ranks eighth in my models projected average running position for this week That is christva bell Hasn't been as good at martinsville as like richmond new hampshire But he was fine here in the truck series plus he finished seventh here in the spring after starting 23rd So I am very into bell at $9,500 if I need that $500 savings from down from byron at 10k I'm okay taking that and going with bell instead. I think that bell Really really sets up well for this week starting back at 12. So a little bit of place differential there too. I think Byron's probably gonna get the most interest here. I'm okay Pivoting to bell in tournaments and taking advantage of how good he has been on this track type this year Eric alvarola is one of the bigger place differential guys in the field. He's starting back in 22nd at $8,000 He hasn't been as good at martinsville as he's been at places like new hampshire But he has top 10 upside He was seventh here last year and ninth two races before that and we saw him win in new hampshire So he's had good upside I think he and bell are two of the better plays in the field relative to salary It may require a punt to get to truex at the top Get to a second lap leader and then get back to these two guys, but I think it's worth that to try to get to them. So I do want to get to them And I think that they increase the incentive to punt with your with your super value play In order to get back up here for your third and fourth rate drivers and rank this tier bell One alvarola two alex bowman three kurt busch for kevin harvick five and tyler reddick six The value tier is matty benedetto at $7,800 through eric jones at $5,500 I think this year is pretty nice. I'm gonna rank matty benedetto first of the group His three races here with wood brothers racing have results and finishes of 7th 10th and 12th He was really good in new hampshire this year as well He's starting 23rd at $7,800. So Very into that think d benedetto good play once again this week and a good consolation prize We can't quite get back up to alvarola or chris for bell Two guys starting in the teens so not quite as deep as d benedetto or alvarola I think are worth prioritizing our ross chastain and bubba wallace Chastain has been outstanding in this rules package this year. He Wasn't as good in the spring at this track, but The true surge we've seen from chastain a current after that race His marks in the lower series at this track and in the truck series and it's a very limited sample in the Excinity series. They weren't that bad I refer chastain over bubba because bubba Or because chastain's had the better performance in the package so far this year But bubba said this is his favorite track and that's chone. He finished 11th year last year. He was 16 this spring Chastain again slight favorite over bubba for me, but I will have plenty of bull at these guys Below them. I will get to eric jones this week. I typically do not but he's $5,500 and starting 28th His aggregate average running position on the short flat tracks this year ranks 20th And that's all in bad equipment. So it might not work, but I'm okay Taking some swipes and betting on the driver's talent and going with jones at times for this week So I'll rank this tier demon a dead of one chastain two while it's three eric jones number four The punching tier is ricky senes jr. And chase briscoe at $5,000 on down And there are four guys here who I will consider Uh, which is a lot more than usual those guys are stenhouse ryan priest ryan newman and cori la joy Senhouse has not been good at this track, but he also hasn't been terrible. He was 15th year back in the spring Priest tends to be at his best on tracks like this. It's kind of like his background He's starting 26 at $4,500 newman has been awesome at this track He just has been really really really bad recently. He did have a 14th place. I was running position here back in the spring, but Kind of seems like he's checked out. I don't know. Maybe that's anecdotal. Maybe uh La joie's had good finishes here in like truly truly dumpster level equipment He's he's a better equipment this year. His stuff is better and he's had some speed Um at times he doesn't speed here back in the spring as well before having an issue It's hard to rank these guys because They all have very obvious paths to failure But I think I would go stenhouse one priest to la joy three and then newman I wouldn't use any of those guys If I if it gives me more access to lap leaders, I will say, you know, maybe I should be higher or newman But like I just feel weird about him right now. I just I don't know. It seems like he's Halfway into retirement. So I think to me it this the punting tier is stenhouse priest la joy and then newman Let's finish up here with our win picks for martinsville one driver above 10000 and one below the guy above I I can't really go against martin truex jr. Just given How good he's been here the motivation I have a ticket on truex win the championship and would love for him to advance to phoenix where he won back in the spring So Let's go martin. Let's get it done. Let's keep that ticket alive one more week The guy below 10000 I will go with his teammate christa bell again So good on these short flat tracks in the xfinity series so good on them this year as well So to me joe gibbs racing truex and bell the picks for me to win for this week That is all that we've got here on the podcast for today But again a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed nfl pga nba nhl ufc and of course nascar for next week as well All right here in the same place hit subscribe and leave us a rating interview if you like what you hear If you've got questions for me. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with the lance martinsville We'll talk to you one talk to you once again next week to break down the championship race in phoenix This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire