 Felly, y gallwn yma, mae'r unrhyw oes yn ysgrif iawn. Yn gynghwyl yma, mae'r unrhyw oes yn ysgrif iawn. Yn gynghwyl yma, mae'r unrhyw oes yn ysgrif iawn. My friend, my former colleague, my friend, Mary Andrews, we should congratulate him on his accession to the position of CEO of the Institute. I think it's a given proof that there is life after quality, but I don't know of my old friend, I don't know of him, so I don't know what he says, and never he spends the money. I know that everybody here has a busy afternoon in terms of your market, but all the days of the spring start at day four, and I want to generalize the main view on your fellow members of the Institute, in particular those who have made an active contribution this current fall, but also to acknowledge your efforts through seminars, meetings and engagements, and other events over a long, long period of years, ensuring that you continue to build on your expertise in your affairs, and that you, as an Institute, are perfectly fit to draw on the sources with opinions and views and perspectives. We need to hear at least a critical point on our journey, and be the journey that presents challenges of unprecedented nature, not only in terms of the digital, but also the dramatic, and indeed, the economy. This is a huge challenge for all of us without contribution and ongoing engagement of your Institute, because I believe this is a journey, and that we are all on together now more than ever. We need to listen, we need to engage with one another, and we need to ensure that we exchange the different views and different perspectives in order to ensure that we, in government, secure the best outcome for Ireland and its citizens. So I believe strongly that everyone, be it industry, academia, government, individual and citizen, has their own part to play in addressing the challenges of Brexit. It is from my own part here today. I wish just briefly to provide you with the status update of my own, indeed, a reflection on the last tragedy of the government's war, the assessment of where we stand as we prepare to engage in the matter of the historic negotiations that die ahead and which are to commence. It is often said that the past is a foreign country, and certainly when I went back to this time last year, as we mentioned earlier, the idea of the landscape in Europe and beyond had a most different feel. At that stage, we hoped, and we said so publicly, it was our hope, it was our ambition, it was our desire to reach a lecture. When faced with what we in Ireland that was a competitive case, would vote to remain as active members of the European Union 12 months ago when I asked it before you. It was to address your conference team on that occasion being Brexit, a risky business. Then we were 35 days out from the referendum. Our thoughts and perspectives were markedly different than they are today. Then I spoke to you about the strength of the union of 28 member states, about our ability as 28 to be greater than the soul of our part, to be better equipped as 28 to face a multitude of challenges and threats, not least those that don't respect court, time of change or global terrorism, and to deliver better results for our citizens as a consequence. The atrocities accorded with the Manchester area this week, which I know shocked us all. Yet again, it underlines the need for solidarity with our friends and neighbours, and to continue to work together to face down the threat of international terrorism. So it seems timely then that we are back a year later to take stock of where things now stand. And it seems even more appropriate that the occasion is to launch this piece of detail in order to work. I commend all those involved. So what has changed over the last 12 months, but on the surface, quite a great deal. Of course, since the referendum result, Brexit has quite simply been everywhere, no longer the preserve of civil servants, think tanks, the Brexit, and has worked its way firmly into our national discourse. It was hardly really a program. It doesn't matter if it's too old. In some way or other, I would say the same for TV on the last meeting. As a minister, I meet people on a weekly basis in a wide variety of settings. Rooms like this are the merely events in my constituency, and of course abroad in my capacity in the UK. And I have to say that I find here in Ireland, Irish citizens are most likely to be engaged, and are very much welcome to be engaged. We've all got your grips with the obscure articles of EU legislation. We are now familiar with the roles and responsibilities of the EU institutions as we embark upon the negotiation process. And secondly, over the course of the year, we have seen a marked change at political and official level in the United Kingdom. The Government, which had been writing high on the electric spoils of 2015, has changed quite significantly over the past 12 months. There are randomly precipitated a change of seismic degree, a change of prime minister, and we shall go up cabinet, and we now await the outcome of the next election in June for further indications as to where public feeling in the UK sits in these times of great turbulence. After months of speculation, Article 50 was finally invoked in the end of March. The only constructive in tow, the Government welcomed in particular the reference to Ireland in the British Prime Minister's letter of notification, which also sets out the objective of protecting the peace process and avoiding return to what was described as a hard border on the island of Ireland. So while we wait for negotiations proper to begin at the election, across Wifeham, the UK is readying itself for the next phase, where it will need to deliver on the decision of the British people and the British referendum, which will see the UK embark on what will be a fundamentally different force to the one-day application over the past 44 years as a magic and influential and oftentimes constructive member of the European Union. And thirdly then, while the union itself, here too we've seen change, but it's changed of a different nature and order. Here I think it's more appropriate to talk about it changing here, but I think it's more appropriate for members to come together rather than a fundamental change in direction. I think you would have thought there has been a concerted focus on preparing for the negotiations in a unified manner, EU 27, to speak with one voice. I think that has been quite successful. We've had the negotiating guidelines agreed by the European Council in April. The more detailed negotiations agreed by the General Affairs Commission on the last. And of course not to be overlooked, the European Parliament resolution on Brexit, which was endorsed by an overwhelming majority of MEPs in early April of this year. This work has been complemented by the appointment of key personnel, including former commissioner Bernie, a cheap university of the European Union, while I'll return to the detail of the negotiations in a moment. I'd like to note that from an Irish perspective today, we find ourselves very much at the heart of an alliance in 27 member states. Negotiating from a position of strength to protect and promote the interests of Ireland and all our citizens, and indeed of the citizens of the European Union. So crucially, at EU level, there has been also emphasis on renewal, the process of renewal. I have to say again, as my name is here in this room, I've said both publicly and within our own endeavours that the result of the decision that reached people to withdraw from the European Union was a shock. It was provangable here in Ireland, but it ran across the European Union. But in response, rather than abandoning the values which underpin our union, it must be Ireland and that would argue strongly that we are instead witnessing a reformation and a strengthened commitment to those values. Quite simply, since the referendum resolved, we've seen the emphasis shift towards a growing return of nation among the remaining 27 member states to make a success on the European Union of 27. I looked at the backstab of declaration in August last year for their own declaration in March of this year, March of the 60th anniversary of the foundation of the European Union. And we have seen a renewed confidence, a renewed level of conviction in the European project, on the value that it continues to represent. I think that's important. I also saw the election victory of President Macron in France earlier this month, further demonstrating that the pro-European message remains relevant and that that message resonates with the electorate. This pro-European sentiment is replicated in public opinion elsewhere in the European Union. Not least here in Ireland, where support for the European Union and our continued membership of that union remains not particularly in Ireland, but extremely in Ireland. I think that's very important in the context of where we're going. And of course, as a practicing politician of many years time, you've not explained that polls don't always tell the full story. But they do give a good indication in broad term and they are certainly useful tools to identify trends over periods of time and in the politicians I've always asked about have been in the polls. We said we don't come into the polls because the red polls are the bad ones. What can I tell you in the privacy of this room? A good poll is always better than a bad poll. So I said, oh, the poll is here. The poll is here. I've shown it's consistent, is that since the referendum in the UK support for continued Irish membership of the European Union remains strong and high. I believe that this reflects the pregnancy of the Irish people. We don't know why the EU is the force for good in our daily lives. Of course, the European Union is like any human organisation in power. And I want to acknowledge that the work of the European institutions that is interested to know whether we're at the border with the future of Ireland. People were a little concerned about the footwear of Commissioner Barnier as he embarked upon a walk across a field of freezing cows. People said, be careful. I went to Commissioner Barnier's shoes. Be careful, he doesn't fall. Commissioner Barnier turns around and says, I'm not a Brussels technocrat, I'm a farmer. I think it's important that we realise that European institutions, all of these institutions, are made up of people just like ourselves. I want to recognise the presence here of one of those, like Colin Farmer, MP Andrew Droyd, who looked out in the course of the afternoon where there's no public sector thinking in the European Parliament. But why the European Union is imperfect as we admit it to be, we need to acknowledge what it has achieved, the huge amount it has achieved for the people of Europe. And of course, we acknowledge that it still needs to be better and more for its citizens, and in a way, that is effective. We and Ireland, we should be part of that discussion, pushes for that improvement. We've ultimately shared the outcome coming from within the European Union. So in some respects, that's one key point that hasn't changed in the last 12 months, that we and Ireland still believe that the EU was greater than the Soviet Union. And that, as 27, Ireland continued to be imperfect to face the many contexts, and, indeed, disparate challenges which today's work presents as well. So over the last, over the last 12 months now, on the one hand, that period of time has been characterised by a dot of change, and on the other, from a government's perspective. There has been a consistency of approach to our actions since the 23rd of June last year. Indeed, much of the work we've undertaken in government has, dare I say, been somewhat predictable. By that I mean, we had a plan to respond to an EU outcome, because we didn't like it, and although we hoped we would never have to use it, when the result became clear on the 24th of June, we were quick and ready to go. I don't say that in any sort of, in any sort of congratulatory way, but on the 24th of June, I spoke four or five part of the hysteric audience, and it had absolutely no difficulty in pressing on them from a very early stage unique circumstances that we would face here on the Friday when I spoke to you at last year's conference, work was already under way on the first phase of contingency data which was published, of course, on the 24th of June. This work was reinforced by a key understanding of the priority issues for Ireland and the potential withdrawal of the UK, namely, to minimise the impact on our trade and the economy, secondly, to protect the peace process and to put Friday agreement in particular, maintaining the common travel area with the UK, and to secure Ireland's future in a strong European Union. All of these underpin the most fundamental objective of all, ensuring the continued clarity of our citizens here in Ireland and Frederick Asley of Ireland. So, while we were deeply disappointed by the referendum zone, we were never less ready to roll out our approach in a systematic way towards the next complex phase. This response is characterized by three main features. Firstly, structural changes. Secondly, systematic engagement at home and partly strategic outreach abroad of these three, probably the simplest to implement, is the restructuring. The Taoiseach established without delay and indeed still chairs a dedicated cabinet committee on Brexit which has met in a clean recession eight times today and provides political direction through our basis strategy. The Department of the Taoiseach continues to provide strategic directive to what is in order of government effort to deliver Ireland's interest on objectives in the negotiation. Responsibility for EU functions returned to my department last November and staffed missions in Brussels, in London, in Paris and in Berlin were reinforced in order to respond to the new requirements of the matters. And I'm confident that we now have a framework in place which has been for purpose to tackle the challenges of Ireland. That structure is flexible and remains under review to allow us to replicate resources as required to respond to the evolving needs of the situation. Next, our attention to our system and application at home with stakeholder groups indeed with citizens to deepen our analysis and to move confidently on to the next phase. The four island civic dialogue which I co-chair of the issue was a critical piece of dialogue for 1,200 delegates including many at the face of the seat in this room attended and indeed participated in the numerous sectoral dialogues and they have been governed to have one of the widest possible conversations on implications of the dialogue for this island nor answer in my capacity as Minister for Foreign Affairs and my involvement and instalment at the talks. On every occasion in which we have an opportunity I also had a Brexit related meeting with community groups in London business groups in London and farmers in London and I believe that was fundamentally important in the context of our island page just last read by Minister John McHugh, who was in the sectoral dialogue in Neverkinny which focused particularly on the North West on the wider order region of stakeholders from a range of sectors in the North West. So this process of the many sectoral dialogues is ongoing and extremely useful. With two plenary sessions of the Civic Dialogue November and February chaired by Chairman Tom Harlan this process is now going to give a broad range of concerns raised by Brexit across the island for the economy, society the peace process for North South Cooperation for human rights and the analysis of government to feed these concerns and issues into our preparations for the negotiations and I'm pleased to see that many of these key questions have been raised and continued to be raised teased out and they're also mentioned and addressed in the status report so in many cases what you have done complements very well the issues which we do together the government level in our document entitled the vision of the European Union as published area this morning given the nature of this process naturally the specifics of the negotiating points when only the emerge and the needs when only crystallise as the negotiations proceed so we view our publication as a comprehensive starting point upon which to build the strategy for the negotiations which we will work with then we have to find a reason to discuss our strategic outreach the objective here being to ensure that our partners across the governments of Europe and within the institutions had a sound and indeed detailed understanding of the unique implications of the withdrawal of the European Union for Ireland particularly in relation to Northern Ireland and the peace process will try to agree to achieve this of the value of the leadership of the T-shirt implementing a targeted programme of engagement with our partners from my own part I've had over-gated interactions with other parts of the European Union and the institutions that began in the morning and most recently has involved visits to the border region by Mr Barney himself as well as lots of work for our minister and further visits to the families weeks ahead and the important vote next Friday I've had a lot of interactions with the visit of the former minister Andrew Samuels who again at my invitation was delighted to accept and is eagerly looking forward to actually seeing the open border and meeting community groups allowing that border from north and south and when we talk about the importance to maintain the open border for people like Mr Barney and other foreign ministers it's essential in their understanding but I hope I'm back to a bit entirely important to participate in what would be different important party event and national event as well but during the process of my engagement I've been struck by a number of key points First Deputy Secretary said that there was already a high degree of awareness of the markers in Europe of the situation on this island with particular outcomes to the actual peace process peace and stability in Ireland which I've been at thanks to say that in Europe once we've come to the referendum campaign last year but if you take as I do the European project being in its centre peace process from the horrors of the destruction of war in the 20th century right up to the maintenance of peace and stability right across the continent today at macro level well then at micro level we have the peace process on the island in Ireland and I'm pleased that many of my foreign ministers are proud of the role that the European Union played in the war opportunity for the agreement are as I said the European Union provided a very convenient umbrella for discourse between normal Ireland, Dublin and London when things were more difficult and more challenging but in the context of my discourse with colleagues across Europe I have to say when I came to the detail that there was obviously ununderstandably less awareness of the particular provisions and operation of the agreement and its successors and of course the often fragile nature of politics in normal Ireland which in general we have seen we have seen direct evidence of the fragile nature of the institutions that indeed the fragile nature of discourse in politics in normal Ireland indeed for many many of my European colleagues I have to admit that the situation in Northern Ireland was viewed as having been set so there was a real unpressing need in many of my meetings to go back to the first principle setting out the nature of peace including the unique constitution and political conflict the fragile nature of the Bob institution and the centrality of our shared open board in all cases the vital aspect of our ambitious programme with the many engagement around the European Union has been to underline the very particular legal strategies that the UK has to draw on specific needs that would arise in the context of the political negotiations in doing so we continue to highlight and emphasise the status of the good friend degree an international deeply binding registered with the United Nations and the particular responsibility which that requires of Ireland and the UK in respect of our programme teaching further matter of national interest of course the avoidance of a hard-working light of the world as arguably the most important symbol of the peace process the open board with its essential well-being on both parts of the island and to defer the normalisation of relations all the way into the conflict the best in the importance of the open board on partners visits by commission, council and parliament figures that the region have been invaluable because there's no substitute for seeing or indeed in the case of the border not seeing the border and the indispensability of this for life on the ground this affords our key interlocutors a proper understanding of our remaining as those as possible to the status quo must be a key critical objective of the European Union in the negotiations as we've said the avoidance of our border will require imagination and will require creativity and importantly this has been specifically recognised and reflected indeed expressed in the European Council University of humanity we know that achieving this objective will not be easy compromises will be required and the UK side is on the EU side in order to find a solution that realises the shared objective of avoiding a hard border and one which protects Ireland's obligations Ireland's interests Ireland's advantages as they continue to improve the memory of the European Union there's an important responsibility in Northern Ireland this critical and challenging time for Northern Ireland as the UK EU negotiations about to commence in a matter of weeks the restoration of a power sharing objective in Stormwood is absolutely essential people of Northern Ireland voted for a new assignment a new executive as far back to the second of March the overdue obligation now on the parties in Barnard is to again work together to deliver a detective about Northern Ireland but I detect a willingness a determination by the parties to achieve that and I look forward to participating in the Zoom talks about as soon as practical after the British general election my expectation is that the election will be able to with the results of the 910 that you and I would expect that one day Tuesday that we will be back about the possible on the table that we need to take at a pace so a successful lump a new executive by the 2092 deadline is indeed imperative if Northern Ireland is to continue to build on the progress made over the last two decades to ensure that partnership and reconciliation can be advanced to deal effectively with the challenges now presented by the control of the UK and the European Union a new executive is also required in Northern Ireland and cooperation with the government so in Northside Ministerial Council they continue across the various sectors including to address the quality of youth there's no doubt about that Ireland is a new member state most at risk for the withdrawal of the UK however we are determined that our register will be protected and therefore engaged and in some detail with all of our input I think we can be pleased with the return so far on these efforts when it comes to what Jill has said in that regard at EU level we've seen unique issues of Ireland recognised at every key priority document as mentioned earlier also the guidance the detailed and directive have a strong acknowledgement of Ireland's specific concerns included on the protection of the gains of the peace process with Friday's agreement in all of its policy on avoiding the hard order and by that the agreements and arrangements between the UK and Ireland such is the really important common travel area which is Ireland's travel area the directors also recognise the need to address the rights of our citizens residing in Northern Ireland and the continued enjoyment of their rights as EU citizens as well as the recognition of the unique geographic position of Ireland that comes to the press emissions such as transport which is approached by our exports and continued access to the safety of Ireland in addition to the European Council also agreed to recognise the unique constitutional status of Northern Ireland and the need to ensure that surely United Ireland will be brought about in accordance with the Good Friday agreement the entire territory of such a United Ireland will be part of the European Union so in short that may make it quite clear that our unique priority each and every one have been accepted by our 26 partners as a shared priority as a new European Union as we commence that's the past for me so if I can briefly look to the next one I'll admit what I've said already Mark at the beginning but it is the right beginning for us to like what you're thinking as opposed to the sporting in this game of two halves I'd say we've made a solid start with a good first 15 minutes on the wind behind us and it gives us much to build on going forward and move forward with determination we will at EU level on this meeting in the General Affairs Committee in Brussels signed off on the final details to facilitate the opening of our critical negotiations we have a key right here now on how this process will work led by Mr Barney wanted to believe the oversight of the European Council and we have an equally key understanding of the three areas of focus the issue of the UK's 90th century and the border issue so far so good the simplicity of the presentation however the line is the complexity even leaving aside the border the other two facets of issues present multiple challenges and complexity to take briefly the issues as we rise on a positive note there is clearly good will on both sides to find solutions to this and the detail of the context this basket straffins many important issues in the area of residency rights workers rights not to mention aspects of access to education access to healthcare but that said I believe an early agreement is principle on the reciprocal protection of citizen rights is a achiever what must be regarded as being a priority this would be important for individual EU and UK citizens and their families who find themselves in the position to put the comfort of the uncertainty as a man who should never forget ultimately this is about the lives of the people this is about the lives of the citizens this is about their interests and this of course must come first in addition a quick agreement on principle on this issue would also be important for building confidence between both parties at an early stage in what would be a difficult set of negotiations let's remember that we are carried out in the constructive and orderly manner the financial settlement question the detail is known as the the whole view of this health and the environment and the quality of the meeting but that's not for a gift that there is a general election on the way to House of the water but I would say this that the British government has always accepted that they would need to honour certain obligations and that they would need to honour certain liabilities as a party member state and that's part of the exit arrangement this is already an honour of public record and it's known that to my mind it should be addressed in an orderly and constructive way this is not about a punishment if you had a claim this is not about issuing a bid for a gift but it's very simple it's very simple and it's given an expectation on the part of your community that you should honour any financial commitments for which it hasn't already entered into it this issue will be addressed in the process of negotiations and it's not it's given a handle it's going to be a key it's rather focusing on figures which are going to be unnecessary inflammatory I think the commission is approached on the negotiations as a smart that's what the methodology fought that's a greener principle that's fought more than anything else in this commentary on the bid and the meeting in response to the highly political nature of the European Union it also brings into focus the link between the exit negotiations and the future relationship negotiations we know that on the British side there have been different details of the future relationship we understand this perspective but equally we support the view of EU 27 that we cannot rush into the second stage in accordance with the framework of what they are progress must advance on the exit issue before we get to the future relationship I think we should remain hopeful but with capitalism we will build on both sides we will see a sufficient measure of progress across the architecture that will allow the council to decide to move to the second phase where we will be taken in parallel with the negotiations on spoping out the framework for the future relationship with the UK and the EU or going where I would hope that this will happen by the end of this year I would say that there is no surprise value in this rule that the future EU-UK relationship is of enormous concern and indeed enormous interest to the Irish side we know that Brexit and very clearly we wish to see that those as possible trade relations between the EU and the UK after Brexit achieving this would be of utmost importance to the strategy to mitigate the impacts on our economy but for this reason our folks say that our government is intensified on the economic damage of Brexit work is on the way and a further piece of detail is to examine the economic implications including identifying domestic policy measures to protect our economy to prevent the negative impacts of Brexit to reinforce the competitiveness of the Irish economy and to pursue all opportunities that might arrive therefore I know that with great interest the chapters of your status report which took with the angry food side and separately the role of SMEs what rightly identified in terms of the impacts of Brexit on the Irish economy the questions and analysis yours in film throws off are complicated and challenging but if the last year is thought as I it was the simplistic answers that you presented you must continue to invest time you must continue to invest in research, detail analysis and planning so I look forward to feeding your work into consideration of key issues which is on the way at the heart of the government so that you say my way of doing brings me to the point that I made at the beginning that is that there is a clear role for all of us in checking Ireland's response to the profound and historic challenges caused by the withdrawal of our nearest neighbour many months many years but I think we should step forward together on the back the solid work undertaken today ready to respond to the challenges before us ready to deliver the best for our people our assistance for Ireland and the European Union as a whole so I want to wish you every success at your conference and I want to once again to acknowledge a very important role played by the Institute in the public affairs of Ireland and the European Union and I wish you to continue to success having us here today is what it is not only today but over the years in the arrangements in the partnership this the status report is the second of the series since the last one in January we negotiated a matter and we called the specifics regarding Brexit the minister asked in his speech where is public feeling in the UK before in the UK and I think the public feeling certainly in England and in Wales it's harder now we must not forget the city the area around London Scotland, Northern Ireland they all voted to remain but their interests have not really been given much credibility by the Conservative government since then I see no evidence whatsoever in the UK which is in favour of Brexit and has changed my experience in the last few weeks is only hard and the friends that I have who are all the thinkers the fact that in the Conservative manifesto there is specific reference to controls and immigration leaving this in the market leaving the customs no jurisdiction all of that is an indication that Mrs May if she wins it is likely to take a very hard stance in a shared innocence opportunity and any disability will be very difficult to find solutions to these diametrically opposed positions our session will be in two parts as we know the first part is a bit more difficult the second part is a bit more in specific economic issues thank you our first speaker is Brendan Brendan is a co-funker of the Institute for Canada and he has been the driver of the Institute for at least 25 years thank you chairman my first duty like everybody else is to thank him and the chairman for hosting this event he collaborated on on Brexit thank you very much my relationship is very similar to that of the Minister who has just opened I know you are looking after all the best hours in the case of a very important moment of course the ministers are very important I would like to give you an example of managing the barriers we are acknowledging in particular the presence of John Stanton and the association with the Institute for Canada and the presence of the Minister of Justice who was recently at the Supreme Court and was previously a member of the Justice but his great claim to playing is that he and I studied together in UCD working through economics and law and he has a lot of questions on that I would like to thank the Minister for his support and just my two points on the new of the EU this is a star support that's how it's so fine it's dated May of this year it follows the first sale of support which was completed in January for what the journey is looking at the information about this now it's a combination of facts and interpretation interpretation may not always be the way of interpretation but it's one of the things that I think that goes and this is our attempt to interpret the facts that we don't see at all in all of this the opening chapter which when adopted assessed the same five points to make the first is that the EU kind of rolled that there is a in terms of receivers that we follow throughout the negotiations between the EU and the UK there was questions on that in the first phase in the past on the assumption that it was that we entered a different set of negotiations on March 2019 last day it's a brief interpretation of Irish buildings in Ireland and they say that they have been in the European Republic to work out so on the first point to make is that the European Union has a different role it's a road map helping from both which will start with the draw the European Union approach I think has been characterised in the European Union in terms of the most recent decision it's trying to form an instruction because preamlands have been given to the trade that's saying some elements that we will see out here but it's something that might be countered the cards, but absolutely preamlands the trade is a plan to strengthen and encourage to text the trade in order to ensure that first of all the trade is to terminally order the trade is sufficient secondly lay down the limits in which the European Union is operating and beyond which they may not threaten a point I hope that's totally understood very clearly next day give legal certainty to the help which will be absolutely crucial on the point of view of the last point give legal legitimacy to the help of the trade in a sense the ultra-virage rule has been quote there are two of these we can't say to one and that's all the corner to which has just decided such a distinguished camera and looking at any piece of the legislation we need to do this at the beginning where the text of the boat the arguments of the trade are not which it is based in regards to the structure we've seen that the European Union approach is quite different and that structure is based on a series of speeches and letters obviously it matters to have a speech that's the most important of these followed by a white paper which by being common is essentially a repetition of the speech in addition to the white paper in addition to the speech on the system of the head and then across the part of our act of 50 which we address to the public because it's really a big deal to almost provide a few places the conclusion to the draw of the current study of these documents on the European Union is that the European Union knows what it does not want it doesn't really know what it does want and this is the problem for us you cannot say it has a cure particularly it might summarise it by saying that it does not know it does not know how to reconcile the contradictions between rejecting rejecting Cossum Union rejecting a role for the DCJ and rejecting any budget to be responsible with a statement objective of having frictionless and effortless access to the state of the market and treatment of those at the same time for those having agreement of the spirit of this issue those are my first client second client is that of the DCJ I think it has been clear from the very beginning that this is a client that has been made and published but there is a flash the EU in compliance with its treaties has adopted a sequential negotiation process so in a very structured fashion it is important for us to do things in great friendship and the EU led a kingdom once a simultaneous negotiation and Mrs May in her various letters has constantly just called it alongside the resolutions of the negotiations wherever they are alongside each other and as we know the structure structure now agreed and given to Barney today and that people can ask what is your opinion and deal with the various formulae of the three issues which the minister mentioned the most contentious of which he was going to be a single and natural settlement the minister has offered some elements of optimism of a resolution of that matter but we will recall that when disaster began in the period of television that David Davis did not know anything there is the problem because there is only much sufficient progress and that support of the EU some of the negotiations have been achieved and that will be a decision by the European Council that the EU was then in the decision to proceed to the next stage of the negotiations and also the transition relations so in on the meet for two year deadline as described there after the 50 that was only a provision to the government then we are going to have to get the first phase to be filled by the end of this year as to whether that could happen or not there is a new point we say that the odds of failure are 40% as Mr Davis has announced some kind of failure including myself I have increased ourselves to 50% I have sharpened the time frame within which failure will occur and that is the great threat that businesses today call to contribute what you would call to include no deal is better by Christmas as you recall after 50 the author of the article claims that he did this on the flight of the EU at this kitchen table was carried over all those calls of the industry what does that mean for the agreement in terms of personal what do you relationship and then that is agreed with then we want to after the end of two years the administration will include application and by the European Council and we will continue to do gratification of national departments so the timelines are going to be a great and that will be a new relationship will be discussed at Dublin as not the tricky problem that was mentioned earlier how do we deal with the large department at the same time that is not the department how do we deal with the multiple department but mostly the private this is mainly a positive association Efallai, mae'n meddwl o'r ysgol, â'i bobl o'i bod yn fawr sy'n ei fund.정al yw'r ran gweld sydd yn mynd i'r mynd i'r mhyruldig, Ac mae'r ysgol yn ffais cael y gyrfa, ac mae'n pwysig o'r ystod a chael yn cael leoedd yn ei wath ar amgylch yn rhan o'r syniadau ac mae'n biffrifadfeydd y bydd-u bod ymwiel yn eifryd ymwiel. Ac mae'n eisiau i ddod yn ffordd i'r siwr bwrn i'r umfawr o'r ei ddau'i syniadau. is great, almost that, great place, certainly to do European Union. And I think it's a, it's going to provide a new industry, so I haven't been able to do a target to European Union, so I'm not going to have it set. I'm a religious, and I very often carry in stereo the intention that the members of the European Union, and we call this a 72, will be psychological liberation for Ireland. I think that Brexit is a culmination of that process, just in religion for it. If you're in Ireland, you know, it provides us with massaging, and what the barrier does not, the barrier that it does, the barrier that Andrews has told you, that it works, it gives us the support. It's sort of a work challenge, and oftentimes an opportunity. It's quite a start. The barrier is the newly appointed director-general of the European Union, a site, and it's rented, and it could have to be with everybody, and it's something of a fraud, speaking up here, because I didn't write a chapter like my fellow panellist. I'm really here for Tom Arnold, who is my predecessor, he wrote a chapter that couldn't be with us today, so I'm happy to stand in, and I'd like to give my political grip, I have some legal reputation, but I've been able to stand in short notice for various events, and to exemplify the subjects, giving them a very short period of time to prepare, and on a particular occasion, I was asked to speak to the delegation, to come into Leicester House, and what I taught on the subject of breastfeeding in 20 minutes' time, to exemplify my own reputation. I sat down and scribbled a few notes, I gave a speech, I sat down to a very thin round of applause, after my remarks, and I said to my host, was that okay? He said, yeah, it was very interesting, although we did ask you to speak by breast freedom. It was another funny part. That was your last day. No as a child. I did understand how it looked like it was an issue, and the discussion was over. Just a little bit about the time, I could evaluate it and tell you what all your thoughts are about, and I haven't really been able to speak about how it was about the trial, how it was going to look like, how it was going to look to the trial, how it was going to look like, how it was going to look like. I was out of talk yesterday where Mark Chan and the IVA couldn't convey more strongly the idea that we want everybody to amplify the message of Ireland's commitment to EU membership. We might think in certain circles that we all mix in that that is something that we can take for granted, that's priced in, we understand that to be the case. I thought in the circles that Markman mixes in and I'm sure our diplomats makes in that that is not something that should be taken for granted whatsoever. We saw a television programme and RTE during the week which probably wasn't that helpful. So he was trying to emphasise that idea of Ireland's commitment to EU membership. There was a publication earlier this week about the Euro coalitions and what I'm trying to explore is the idea of in the large European Union of 28 member states where are the binds of affinity within that membership. There are the original six, there are the Nordics, the Baltics, there are peripheral countries. Do they have informal coalitions? And is this a good thing because a lot of people are meeting. If it is a good thing, these informal coalitions allow for consensus to build up ahead of a major vote, major decisions and contribute to the cohesion of the European Union in general. So this publication earlier this week examined these coalitions through a survey that it did upon the policymakers, the likes of the people in this room here across the European Union in 28. And what was interesting is that Ireland doesn't belong to any category that was set out for the kinds of coalitions. So there was an original six, an actual seven, there's the Nordics, there's the Baltics. Ireland doesn't feature in any of the category sections. An interesting snapshot just to think about. But when you go into the depth of the report you find that when the people survey were asked which is the country you go to first when you want to form alliances on the basis of foreign development of Ireland ranks number one. Which is a country that is most committed to deeper integration in Ireland ranks number one. So there are certainly alliances there that we need to tap into that are a key potential for us. And one of the key things we want to do with the Institute of International Development is to try and think about that and turn our attention to our EU 27 group that is beginning to develop an agenda for itself. And to try and think about like-minded states, to try and think about things, try and think about regional alliances and some of the members that I threw earlier today. And that is a critical issue. So for example on the digital single market we are members of the digital north, the D9 which features Benelux, Baltic states, Nordic states. And there are countries that are committed to the idea of accelerating the development of the digital single market. And that is a key alliance that is going to be a critical for Ireland to be a part. Because let's be, we all know that in the UK and Ireland we are all over the street. There is a massive political closure within this industry community. And that is going to leave a huge gap for Ireland in the future. So it is trying to figure out how do we exercise our influence. And it is clear in the first part since the ministry described the first 15 minutes of this game that we had an understanding effort. And we have been so excellent at exercising our influence. And I see it in my previous job when you see the work that David Donner who did as the chair, the co-chair on sustainable development goals, he influenced that Ireland exercises on that. That the co-chair of four Ireland is the migration summit. And Ireland's influence is excellent. So I am confident that we can begin to develop those new lines. So I am confident that that work that we do in the Institute can contribute to the development of policy ideas under those terms. The second point I wish to make is on there, just to think of what Brendan said about opportunity. I don't want to be pollyanna about this. This is an existential threat. But the question is whether we have wasted the good prices in this country before. And if you read the chapter that John Bradley has written of the ISRI and formally of the ISRI's written, you didn't know the chapter on opportunity. And what he says is that we went through the 60s and 70s where we had to emerge into a green market situation in post-quitaker and the context of the European Union of TEC members in the 70s. We went through a period of churn when we became members of the European market after 1992. And John concludes that Brexit is probably more manageable than those changes. Well, whatever your own views about the point is that this is a crisis, yes, but let's not waste the crisis. And he concludes by saying this is the opportunity for us to complete the modernisation of our ISRI sector. So it's a very interesting different perspective in circumstances where there is quite a lot of gloom around the workings report. There is throughout the staff report today references to the opportunities that lie there for us, and quite a lot of the IDA writes about those opportunities there, which Mark McShann had applied again yesterday in terms of if the European Union sticks to its negotiating guidelines in relation to making sure that any free trade agreement that emerges is not allowing steady advantages or regulations and advantages for the UK. That is a very popular thing for Ireland's position in terms of attractive investment that we used to so successful with over recent times. And you will hear from John and Gray in the next session who will identify some of the opportunities for the SME sector, and they are real opportunities. So I think it's an interesting issue that emerges from this staff report. But this staff report is the latest in this series and I just want to reflect on this as a final point. Barry Devereaux mentioned the point earlier that there was a discussion here in May of 2016 where we had a discussion and the Institute had a discussion around Brexit. And that was based to some extent of the work that Diolch Calif and the UK classes group had done throughout 2015 and 2016, and it was publication in 2015 by the Institute which was virtually a clairvoyance in terms of setting the scene, issuing the warnings and imagining the grant that we're going to embark on. And we had our first staff report then in January 2017. This is the second staff report and we have already begun our plans for the third staff report which will be, I think, a lot more focused on the granular issues as we move out of the speculation period as we move from generalisation into specialisation and we begin to look at those issues in the future. So, finally for the island of Ireland for the politics. And I'm sorry that our organisers are speaking here today because he makes a very, very interesting contribution to his own piece. And he has identified a key problem in the north which is the lack of discussion that is going around about these issues. I've had a discussion with an individual who's trying to set the equivalent of the Institute of National European Affairs in Belfast. Every issue has its roots in constitutes, has constitutional implications in the north. And as a result of that, it's immediately colourising. As you all know, in Europe, I've had a very difficult layer of that experience of that through the unions. We've heard it from the other farmers union. They cannot take position on any of the key issues because of the constitutional implications for any strong position that the north may take. There is a role for us as an Institute to support the capacity for creating a forum for discussion in the coming years. So, with that, thank you for your attention. I'll hand back to you. Thank you very much. My thing is different. Over the last three years, a lot of researchers have been telling me that there are different issues for Ireland which are very sensitive. What I want to do is just summarise those results of that research. And I want to summarise that in terms of the channels to which the Irish economy will be affected. And the first is Northern Ireland that we've heard from the Minister how this is the single-wilton-wilton strategic issue for Ireland politically. But in terms of the economy, it is likely to be destabilising. First of all, in terms of output, Northern Ireland is likely to be worse-skinned than the United Kingdom on average. I talked to somebody from Donegal yesterday who said that a range of markets in Derry are talking about moving their location to the European Union. A person from Donegal said she was obsessed. This was not good for Donegal. It wasn't good for Derry because the future of Donegal depends on Derry. It's going to lead to higher costs. And it's just a microcosm of the problem of Northern Ireland. So output per hedge which has done miserably in Northern Ireland since the Belfast agreement is going to be valued by Brexit. The second aspect is a concern that the Northern Ireland depends on the major transfers from London and the rise of English nationalism. It could see those transfers being cut which could be exclusively destabilising. So that's one channel that we are concerned about. The second is trade and it's what most people focus on. And the first thing to say is that all research done in the United Kingdom suggests that Brexit will be seriously negative to the United Kingdom producing in the long term GDP by somewhere between zero and eight percent. And that part of the Brexit is a very uncertain area but it is going to be seriously negative. So as a market for Irish exports it's going to be at much less value. In terms of trade and our exports and how we will be talking about in particular food and S&As exports in Britain will be particularly value affected. It's firms that don't have market power. There are many firms in Ireland that have market power that export Britain who will not face a problem. And Liverpool, the only place that's made in the world, is in Ireland with the NHS bought by Liverpool. They buy it at whatever price and the Irish are the international sales of the power. They won't face a problem. But when you know that the export 50% to 80% of Irish exports went to Britain it is the food, it is the S&As, it is the Irish on the sector that is going to be more affected. The S&I did a paper with a suggestion that the effect trade effects of Brexit would be for 4% more than Irish GDP. Now I don't like putting a number on it. I would much rather say it's a rain. It is going to be seriously negative. But that was their number. The next channel is far and direct investment. We have heard a lot of talk about this area how it would be affected by the intro of some investment by financial sector in London moving to Dublin, Frankfurt, Paris or wherever. And that is definitely going to be a positive effect on the economy and constrained of course by the availability of housing. If you look at the cranes, the office space is broken down there. And however, longer term, it's not just financial sector. People are concentrating on that. There's another paper by the S&I moving at long term. The reason my foreign firms have invested in the United Kingdom is they want Irish to be European market. And in particular, first example, Japan. Japanese firms are very important to Europe and where did they pick the United Kingdom? The problem once they did in the United Kingdom is to set it to Europe. And they are going to have to relocate. And this is going to be an on-term process. You don't kill the factory in 2019. It is when the big factory needs to be rebuilt you decide where it's going to be. So over the next 10 or 15 years you are going to see Japanese firms. Indian firms Cameron went to India was a four years ago looking for Indian investment. And they said, no, we are not going to invest. We are not going to invest in Europe. And until you can guarantee us with Indian Europe, we are not going to invest. Actually, at Theresa May, it is a camera, I thought it would be even stronger or die. So when you are looking at foreign investment in Europe, they want the European market. And another paper by the S&I put in a number, again in a single number, plus three, the effect on Irish, which is looking at that at minus four. But there are positive opportunities as John Bradley emphasises through that channel. Another channel which has been less discussed is logistics and distribution. And in this mercantilist word, the word that Trump people talk about, oh, imports are bad, but actually the problem for Russia is that far more imports come from Britain. And that may be more or more dislocation in this economy than the problems for our exports. Because it will be impossible to manage the distribution sector and the supply chain. And for example, Marks and Spencer's test codes. If Marks and Spencer's, if all their goods come from where, personally, out of Kingdom, they will have to be separated here through customs. Even if there are no channels for things made in Britain, nothing that Marks and Spencer's has made in Britain. It's made in Sri Lanka. It's made in Ireland. It's made in Vietnam. And they will be subject to European countries. So there's going to be substantial dislocation there. And she's going to raise costs for everybody in Ireland. And there is less competition. That is a negative plan. And the way you deal with that is you hope that new retailers will come. Maybe let's take that there. Or others who will bring competition at the Irish market. So delivering our imports in a competitive way into this economy is important. And remember our imports in Britain are much bigger than our exports in Britain. And the other aspect of imports is logistics. And an awful lot of Ireland's imports come through the United Kingdom in Lawrence. Will we fear them through without facing it with a special Irish channel, where you can just drive through and if you're forbidden, there should be stopped in the Irish. On this we have that, it's going to be a major problem for Irish products. And it was interesting that Mr Saffan, the French Minister for Finance when he said Dublin last month particularly picked up on that issue. That she was understaffed through Ireland's concerns. But there's a very particular concern for Donnie Gall. That Donnie Gall, everything that comes through the United Kingdom to get there, comes through more than Ireland. So this issue of logistics and how we deal with the issues is going to be crucially important to minimise disruption. And that's where no agreement could be exceptionally disruptive. And the labour market is another area but it looks to me in terms of the research done that that is manageable on the British part. There isn't an even problem on managing the labour market. We move on to Irish people working here providing there is food with and there appears to be. So that may not be a problem. Another challenge is the financial sector and it's a sweet lot of attention. Stirring as we can and may well you can again because of Brexit. However, that's a temporary effect in terms of yes and combining benefits and buying in Dublin. Both you're seeing higher innovation in Britain and eventually exchange rate changes are working as that. In the short term it's very disruptive for Irish but in terms of longer term effects at Ireland that's going to be less important with the FDI or trade or Northern Ireland effects. There are a range of other channels which I'm not going to go through. Some positive, some negative like the single electricity market. If Europe can import electrons of electricity to wires which carry very quite a bit of a lot of flax on without problems, I don't see why electrons coming from Northern Ireland with union jacks on and into the wires that are coming. So we can get carried away on some of the areas where there are electrically problems to some of and overall if it seems likely that Brexit would be negative for the Irish economy and it would put a range of maybe minus eight at the worst of 90. But it could also be because a small chance it could be positive for some things in a wide range. But it might get better guess which is going to be negative. The final thing is it is going to pay over a very long time scale and in some cases positive like an influx of financial sector farms will begin before 2019. The effects of the trade disruptions will come in 2019 with the negative effects and the non-term beneficial effects of an influx of foreign direct investment will play out over a 15-year period. So it's going to be a bumpy ride it is likely to be negative but it is something which we are the administration is working on managing. Thank you. I'm going to ask Andrew Siefer to forward you to Thomas. Thanks to the chairman and the assistant general. Ireland's farming and food sector is particularly vulnerable to the Brexit scenario. There are, let's go, three main reasons. One is the high finance on the UK market. Secondly, because some of the forestry produce what they make at leaf enjoying a very high level of import tariff, import protection under the EU economy customs tariff. And thirdly, import is a landmark in Northern Ireland. Now, other procedures to the standard support are not going to go into that. I shall also mention, of course, that the every food sector has already been the first time the effect of Brexit in terms of the recession which was very great and very significant and has took the system very quickly. Thomas regards the UK market. Basically, the UK exports about 38% of its total food needs and 60% of that comes from other EU countries in Northern Ireland. Now, the UK is Ireland's largest every food export market. It's bought over 4 billion years and it's 7% for all the exports. And it's anything but the beef, dairy products, certain bare foods but also in subspecies food areas or subspecies products such as mushrooms. It's just a very brief beef and dairy products. A UK imports about 25% of its beef requirements and Ireland's at 70% of this so we're a very big player in the UK market. Now, if the UK market is to lose its value the scope for switching those exports to mainland Europe is very limited in because the market is well supplied and a smaller mixture can actually destabilise the market very significantly. So there's a problem. At Browning, I mentioned that beef production is in the wake of sector and farmers in beef would actually have very dependent on the day to see if there are clients. On dairy products something like over 50% of our cheese costs the UK but it's over 80% in the case of cheddar cheese and again it is very much in Irish the UK of products. So the original baby at least is not currently available for both of exports for example. So I just want to very briefly look at three particularities that are supposed to sector that strike me. One is the cost of union. The second is where does the WTO vision on this and the third is the EU project. So beef is the cost of union. The cost of union including the common customs tariff is actually the cornerstone of the common cultural policy. The farmers price battles the farmers in Europe enjoy dependent totally and very strongly on that level of import technology and as I said despite me widely shown from the mid-tops with like a level of import tariff for beef then going into Europe is not 60% for dairy products is probably 50% or it is higher and they are our two dominant production sectors. Now in all the UK once was here looked very quickly into the top countries and they said to do that they were about to do that they were going to leave the customs union and was to get some new customs agreement with the EU and of course we also know historically that before you've written to the EU they operate for us on the cheap food policy in order to source their supplies from around the world and not from the automotive and your sport and all the rest and on the other hand Europe is offering the most used new trade agreements with the EU for those who are first to and if they include being required to achieve that. So I think that the other food sector is very concerned and I would be concerned about maybe the absence of any dialogue so far are any indications coming out from Brussels about the future of the customs union as the past being said I think that the problem is that if Britain is allowed to have a liberal operation the value of the EU is severely undervalued and strictly non-government are looking to send to send to run a criminal of course and also is the question of more controls and that's certainly the issue and so through things as rules in order to become very important on WTO is there the fact that the government is very concerned with the rates of WTO because there are some import tariffs domestic support and things like that and safety standards. Now firstly I think that has to happen as part of the exit process like at the moment WTO payments are made in those of the EU in 2018 so the first thing that has to happen is to run under those that have to do a job for a new job in a settlement and it was given that it's probably the best one to get some fine care there was always some time and somewhere down the road if there is going to be new UK trade deal WTO roads would eventually be coming to play but it meant that WTO was an organization that moves very slowly and has very good membership to move on with the WTO WTO the UK's net contribution annually was 20.5 billion euro now the company of agriculture policy takes about 40% of the WTO and in Ireland's case about 90% of transfers from Brussels to Ireland now are in the capital capital payments and others for all firms make up about 65% of farming done that varies in the role of maybe 25% Ontario farms and so it must be about 100% for beef land from the Syrians as well and they were also aware that is for here is supposed to be a fact that there is resistance from the net contributing states to increase their contribution to the budget in the future and that theory is a big trust in itself so basically we need to conduce personally I think that the new auto matrix is for the area of the road sector really going ahead in the future trade and postage and so forth phase 2 clearly the auto market is at this stage at least in phase 1 and you see what happens there we have read terms that mix have been a match of solutions which we also could type in terms of those and I think this is why people here that by the end of March 2019 they are when they differ the value for what was made on details of the new trade agreement so on that's what we accepted the transition arrangement was pretty incredible having said that I think that because we totally want to know what the final destination is the transition arrangement to my view we might get to it or a lot of existing arrangements for here at the time which would be helpful and there should also be starting exchanges in the future I think clearly it is very wonderful to have courage to raise it up so Chairman, that's what we got for those who want to retire from market paper for those who want if you don't want to do it get the food centre by and by of the industry detail document that's on the website thanks very much very much I'm a little bit against time so what we do is we take questions until about 20 hours and that's our treat and then we'll give you a 5 minute break and you can jump on and I'll get to chair it you would like to go first any comments? can I do it can you tell us if you want to I'm just holding a ambassador here in Ireland and he tries to break down the question how do you like the role of coming for specific in the airport industry their transportation industries and the airlines most of the airlines are very vocal about the risks and disruptions of Brexit and I will also ask this question in more political context it is very complex and complicated to explain to most of the normal citizens the impacts of Brexit if they one day wake up and they won't be able to fly to Portugal that might be given in the dynamic of the stance of the public opinion in this regard so if you would maybe elaborate on the risks of a tear-fetch for the air transportation industry and also the impacts of it in Ireland I think it will be so disruptive if under counter arrangements airlines in many countries can fly to or from in many countries there will need to be some arrangement what they need and what's going to happen but it seems to me if flights between Britain and Europe were to aimed and in March 2019 that would be nobody's interest so yes theoretically it's a possibility I know Ryanair raised it but I just think that diplomatically it would be a disaster for all parties so it won't happen thank you John anybody else please Michael Hamlin I was going to ask a question about what happens of neighbour winds in the UK holds may change my big question I've heard nothing here about the work that the EU itself would have to do to reorganise all its trade needs I worked in that area for quite some time there is an immense amount of work on every international agreement that the EU has I take the New Zealand land example but it's a small one but I take it as a work plan and that is we will have to the EU will have to divide out the 250,000 tons of land that comes into the EU he says x amount of that was for the United Kingdom the rest was for Europe and that is a huge extra piece of work that has not been mentioned here at all we will have to be done so I ask the panel what do you think in terms of transition and it's not just transition for the UK it's transition for the EU with all the countries with which it has agreements how would you like to start on well I think again like the problem or what's the life of the practicalities but it's having an avertive act that will start and the UK's commitments to the EU have to be taken out a bit a big one for high quality beef the overall range of many Latin American countries as well and the big problem is that as there are these countries within Europe we'll have to say we have an interest for example for example Eastmark in the new alternative agreement so that would be a problem equally I mean there are some other countries in Tokyo TO and my heart is very different when I got there to decide by consensus so they move very very slowly so I've been writing the brown picture like this it's writing that that's an issue that is, I'd say, an immensely complicated and asking to be here very much at all and just said I think I mean in my interpretation there should be a factor that is one with a few of the issues in the first one actually for a mentor here I'm not being a sum of it that seems to maybe we came forward into phase two but like I mean probably only to the policy members of Brussels so the answer to that I would suspect that that would be a good one I can possibly give you a labour of that on a delegation to Brussels a number of weeks ago at the European Chamber of Commerce in Ireland and one of the meetings we had was with DGI agriculture where we had a slice insight into this and they said they've had 200 people working on this topic since around the time of the Brexit vote so I think it's the preparations are well over I haven't heard that one Any other questions? Yes, please We just have two comments or questions Thank you for that Firstly a brand any of remarks about this has made very hard life so on Brexit but I take that as a large point in that she wins but in one sense she taps the end yes that is our local speaker position and it's a common part of this do you think and maybe some British commentators are saying do you the continental European continental commissioners are they understand that they get the feeling they're breaking on this issue or do they take care of it so it won't be alright today so does that point about this to me and the second one I'd like to make is to ask you how to generate them it is generally if the economic consequences of this obviously are higher because they're won't be high if it turns out maybe they're poor anymore do you think that maybe sort of a 10-year voyage of this that Britain will have to get some sort of settlement where it can say we are out of various things in fact they are in them as far as as they can go and similarly from the continental point of view you 27 point of view there will have to be some disadvantage shown because if there's a break when will we come to that stage where the economic scenarios of total breakdown become so adverse that you may get thinking on the ones I said emerging I have to come to my remarks by saying that I also passed economics exams at the end of the year I did some of the basic of what these guys know there's 10 lectures I'm going to show you but in the course of our as I was at the end of the year my master of the future I speak as a compliment to you I think you've raised a very important point that's not really a marriage as yet and that is a time frame but we're going to have a period of 10 years which you've probably heard broken up into 2 years 3 years 2 plus 3 plus 5 making 10 years and all so 2 years on the 3 years on the 5 years implementation 3 year transition and then 5 year it's interesting that the terminology that the EU side focuses very much on the transitional regime between the UK leaving the European Union and then devising a new relationship with all the countries and then the implementation of that agreement think about what's happening as a reverse to accession this is the accession the accession required in every case and as we know in our case it required a long period of implementation what you're asking is particularly during this 25 year period can we advise a situation in which the United Kingdom is and is not simultaneously a member of the European Union in the book that we published in Europe the end game which you've been referring to earlier we talked about big sport solution doesn't exist and we don't deal with the legal basis of it you're making the point that if if the economics of this are clearly pointing at the election then there will be a clear to imperative deal with it in which case legal solutions have been done and I think the answer to that is yes in its contribution project there about the event of what has been done on the commission those of us who are familiar with European institutions can be absolutely sure about this there is a problem with how people bring away on the peaceful solution quite often and I think it's essential for us to get that over and to facilitate these both solutions and there's no level of mindwinds in the graphic but in fact the language there's no level of mindwinds also ever that we are going to need a special regime to handle the implementation of the regime and the only analogy that I can think of is well with our two analogies of course it is Jack Lynch in 1979 on our screen to tell you we did solve the basis of soft norms supplied by France and Germany and then of course to enter the EU which of course gave us the need for norms we are going to need some the economic one and that's a solidarity solidarity is a two way street we are going to show a solidarity especially in areas where we are not permanently going to show a solidarity was obviously which across is the best security and I just add if I may that as a negotiation to proceed there may come a period when the British C&T has been so bad for them that they might be considered my personal belief is that there is a deep deep length of middle that's been there from the beginning I don't think there was a country fully committed to membership of the EU and Syria there were various deals done time after time after time to take account of not British but English and I really think that the decision which was made was much more emotional much more cultural than it had to do with the economy so I really think that the possibility of the English people rethinking their position on membership of the EU even in the event of the United Kingdom splitting up and there is a much greater chance now that Scotland will independent even if that were to happen the views of some of the English friends that I met over the last few weeks but so be it across to you and I think that's very deep in the EU on that note I'll give you five minutes and then we'll be back thank you