 You know, it's going to show you a lot of weakness. It's going to be a very, very quote unquote choppy. That's exactly what the formula for us, a market that's underneath supply. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, Dan everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody had a good day today. Hope everybody had a great weekend. Again, let's quickly rewind, right? So we had this really big aggressive move on Friday into the close, right? The Dow exploded, the Nasdaq exploded, everything exploded. The problem was that 85, 90, 95% of the day, markets in the stock just stocks just weren't doing anything but they explode, right? So the scoreboard is a scoreboard. So it doesn't make a difference how they got there. They just got there. So the question was what was going to happen to it, right? And if you guys watch the weekend update, I really wanted to get bullish, right? I really did. I wanted to get bullish and I'm still kind of, you know, lukewarm kind of, you know, I'd like to see the market move up. There's a couple of areas that, you know, it doesn't look horrible if they can reclaim the move up here, but it's very, very tight. It's very, very hard to get excited on a day-to-day basis, especially when we're talking about technology, especially when we're talking about follow-through on technology. So if you look at the scoreboard today, right, you got the Dow improving, looks great, right? SPYs, you know, they're improving kind of how to resday, they look higher. You know, if you look at the Russell, right, it had a really, really, really big run and had a really, really big sell-off, you know, got hit very, very hard today. You got that whole saga going on with China. Are they liquidating? Are they not liquidating? Who the hell not even knows, right? You got Baidu all over the place. You got this Viacom all over the place. You got all these crazy moves all over the place. Again, it doesn't really sound like, you know, this is it, this is it. Everything's gonna buy everything in the hole. I'm gonna go higher. And then you get to the NASDAQ, right? And, you know, I put a bunch of, you know, I talked about a bunch of names over the weekend that had really good charts, right? Like really explosive charts. And they were in the semiconductor group and the software group and the metals group. And I said, you know what, Baidu, leave Baidu alone, right? We talked about the weekend, leave Baidu alone. It's probably not gonna have the biggest value there. But the problem is, you know, the names that we were concentrated on, they didn't follow through either. And slowly but surely now, we'll talk about the pivots in a second. I started out with all long pivots. Hell, I even traded Netflix today through the long side. I traded VMW today through the long side. I think VMW is literally the only one from our list over the weekend that actually followed through, which I was actually pleasantly surprised. But then slowly but surely in the morning, you started seeing a lot of weakness. I started putting a lot of pivots in back to the downside. And you're kind of left with this, you know, empty feeling. I mean, look, I mean, if you look at the market right now, if you look at the cues, you kind of see the similarities, right? You had two battlegrounds here on the 50-day moving average, right? They got hit. You had a lower high here. Again, two more days at the 50-day moving average, they got hit. Now you have back-to-back days at the 10-day moving average. Now again, the 10-day is not the 50, okay? It's not the 50, it's not the 100. It's not the 200-day moving average. Although there is a very big importance of all these supply zones, the major ones are the big battlegrounds. That's when you're gonna have the biggest institutional money flow. But there's tiers in between macro channels that the bulls that they want to kind of make a stand, man, they gotta reclaim here. So you have two days in a row, they're getting rejected off the 317 area and somebody could turn around and say, well, Dan, you know, they look fine. We had a monster day on Friday and they just rested today. Okay, I'll buy that, right? I have no problem buying that. And, you know, that's kind of the only reason why, you know, I'm giving the bulls a little bit of, you know, a little bit of room for tomorrow. I mean, I have tons of sell, you know, sell buy as setups to the downside tomorrow. But when you look at where the queues are, you say to yourself, well, I'll give it one more day. And this is a very important area here. If the queues get rejected tomorrow, once again, this is, that's 317 area right here on the 10-day moving average, that's gonna be the battleground tomorrow. There's no way that if the market wants to go higher and the bulls want to take control, at some point they have to reclaim the 10-day moving average. For me, the 10-day moving average is like the birth of the trade. I find it, once it confirms the 10-day, usually a good trend starts following in that direction. So we've got reject now back to back days at the 10-day moving average. So going into tomorrow, again, even if you don't trade, have anything to do with the NASDAQ 100 or anything with technology, you really should at least be conscious of this area. Over on the 317 tomorrow, isn't it big if we start building 317? Then yeah, maybe we finally start going back and testing this 321 area. If we get rejected and we start going lower, then again, you can see where our futures are. So it's very, very important tomorrow, kind of that line in the sand is drawn, either the bulls are gonna reclaim 317 or if they get rejected back to third days in a row, we're gonna start going lower and confirm this kind of channel here, three sequences in a row of lower highs and lower lows. This is kind of pretty that simple, but there are some names that look pretty good for tomorrow. I can't really say that there's not, but this is the part where, this is what I mean when the market is strong, you should see follow-through. So I was watching Texas Instruments today, had this really, really big move on Friday, never confirmed. AMAT had this really, really big move on Friday, didn't confirm. Now again, you can turn around and say, well, just, they're resting today. Okay, I'll buy that for one more day. But that's kind of my point, that the market is really, really strong and you're finding all these great things and it's a bull market and CMBC is cramming down your throat and telling you how great everything is, the dow is up again, all-time highs. Well, why is it so hard to get a follow-through, especially in technology? Which part of technology became the redheaded stepchild that nobody really cares about? This is technology, right? This is where fund managers and hedge fund managers want to be invested in. This is where growth, this is where the sexiness, right? This is sexy time. This is where they wanna allocate their money for clients. This is where the growth potentials are the next three to five years. So why is it such a problem area in the market? There's really not a right or wrong answer to that. It's more of, well, what's gonna finally get this market to wake up? So for example, not that I love Microsoft tomorrow, but if the Qs do reclaim that 317, you could see this three candles in a row that Microsoft's got rejected, right? If it can reclaim this area here, maybe it finally wakes up, right? Is it the best chart in the world? No, it's not the best chart in the world, but the moral of the story is at least you have $3, $4 worth of range. If you look at Gilead, for example, is this, again, is this the best chart in the world? It's not, but you can see three times in a row it's gotten rejected off the same area. If it starts reclaiming the Nasdaq doesn't die, right? Maybe it rallies, but I've found so many really bad looking charts that, again, we've been pretty much taking advantage on the downside as well. Google looks okay as well, right? Google doesn't look bad, right? Google doesn't look bad at all. It's got rejected two times in the same area. Facebook is actually the only one it feels like they've been in their own bull market when you actually look at the macro channel. It's been kind of stuck in this whole macro channel now for the last three, four months. And most of the names, and this is a very, very important point, most of the names are still underneath supply folks. That's why you're seeing kind of small, very, very quick, rapid rallies and then getting rejected very, very quickly and moving lower here. And that's kind of been the theme of what's been going on in the Nasdaq space. And as long as we are getting rejected from levels like the last couple of days of the 10 day moving average or the 50 day moving average in the last few weeks, well, that's gonna happen. Short-lived rallies, you can have stocks rallying kind of from no man's land and then next day rolling over like, look at Amazon, right? Is this really a chart you wanna be long, right? There's nothing here. It's, you know, the stock bounce back off the linear regression line, got rejected. Maybe, you know, it finally reclaimed some macro levels and still has to take out this whole area here, right? Look at Apple. Is Apple really a chart you're dying to be long? Look at Apple's chart, right? It rallied for a couple of days, got rejected off supply and rolled over. Is Tesla really the sweet spot right now? I love Tesla, right? But is it really the chart you have to be long? Again, I'm not talking about an investor who's five, 10 years from now. I'm talking about for tomorrow, right? So that's kind of my point. So most of these charts are still really, really bad. There's not a lot of clarity there. There's definitely not a feel-good moment that if you're a trader, are you saying there's so much room for a rally here? It's just kind of they're buying time. So eventually we're going to get some clarity. Maybe tomorrow, right? Maybe the third time's the charm on the Qs and everything wakes up and maybe, hey, maybe the third time the chart, they get rejected and still go lower. And if you look at charts for tomorrow to the downside, you got the Jumia, right? Jumia is close. Zoom, which I really, really like. Look how close this is, right? They're getting really, really smacked here. That looks really bad. There's a lot of names that look pretty crappy here. Look at Beyond, right? Beyond is like literally one day away from just getting tortured as well. So the value from the point of view of where the money outflows coming from is still on the sell side. But again, the fact that we are so close to at least the 10, at least I want to give the bulls some leeway tomorrow. And if they can't reclaim by the second candle of the day, which is 11 o'clock, it's going to be pretty obvious to see which direction we're going to flow. So let's talk about today's pivots. Pretty seamless day here, but this is the disappointment. This is my whole point. TXN 189 needs to build, never got there. AMAD, if it opens below 29 needs to build, never got there. NTAP, okay, NTAP. This is the big move, right? Take a look. This is the big move on NTAP. Beautiful chart, takes out 75, goes up 50 cents and then really, really rolls over. Again, that's kind of my point. There's no follow through, even in the strongest names that are kind of standing out. That's the problem, that's the problem area there. CMC, we talked about over the weekend, metals. Again, is this a big move? Look at this chart. This was in a really good market scenario and everything was strong here. You can't make an argument that everything needs a rest day. Why does everything needs a rest day? We've been selling the market on and off now for the last month. Why do things need to rest? They don't need to rest. It just shows you how weak things are on follow through, especially through the long side. Took out 3180, went to 3240s and then completely rolled over. Again, that's not strength. It looks strong, but that's not really strength. RBLX never got to 73. VMW was good. I traded VMW. It was actually just went straight up, which I was very, very surprised. Here was VMW, right? So it took out, we talked about this over the weekend update. It took out this 54 and went right to the linear regression line here in 5640s. Not a bad move at all. I was actually shocked. That we did all right with this thing. I was pleasantly surprised. Square never got to 217. And here are some couple of pinnets that actually worked out to the upside. Now, mind you, were they the most liquid thing of all? Was it gang busting, call buying, coming into these names? No, but that's not what we're looking for. And you can see here by the comments. They're just cash flow trades, $1, $2. You can squeeze out any more $2, $3 out of this thing. Say a prayer tonight, right? So they're not measured potential moves. Nobody's talking about, hey, if it takes out 509, it's gonna 550. No, that's not what we are. Everything is still on the supply. So here was Netflix. I call it a little piece of this trade here. 509 needs to bill for cash flow. Here was Netflix and it was thin as hell. And then look at it stop. It stopped perfectly at supply here. It stopped perfectly at supply. It is what it is. Nice little move here, nothing crazy. And the video actually had a pretty big move here. 515 rejected twice pre-market. If it builds can give a cash flow spike. And you gotta have a $3, $4 spike here on the video at the open. Not a bad move at all. So here is the 515 right here, right? Here is the 515 area right over here, right? Whole area here and it spiked right into this 519 area actually went a little bit higher throughout the day. But in this type of environment to get anything in that type of environment type of spike is actually great from the upside. So for those of you guys who took a good job again take on the way up, right? Take on the way up, take on the way up. This was actually, I was shocked that the VMW was actually just perfect. Then we started seeing just sell after sell after sell DDOG held 77 twice. If it builds below can flush. Here was DDOG, right? So here's the DDOG took out the 77 and went right to the bottom channel around that 75 and a half area. And how do we know that that was a 75 and a half area? Cause that's where the Bollinger Band is. And if this thing starts confirming tomorrow especially below 75, you can get more selling there. Here's TDOC held 169 three times daily if it builds below can flush, right? So here's TDOC. So it held the 69 once twice, three times fourth time was a charm went down to like 166 and nothing huge. But the point is the point is you can see how much value there still is to the downside. BY&D never confirmed that second entry. I am still watching this thing for tomorrow. Jumia, I still liked it a downside 32 held three times only went down to 3160 closed. This is the lowest closed in the whole formation under 32. And this is why 32 is still very, very important. You could see, you see how it held here. Look at held once held twice held three times. It finally broke through first closed under $32. If this thing confirms tomorrow has a shot to like the 29s. So again, not a big move there. Tesla obviously never strengthened up and never got to a 617 level. So, look, I think this market is exactly what it is. It's gonna show you a lot of weakness. It's going to be a very, very quote unquote choppy. That's exactly what the formula for a market that's underneath supply. You're going to see some moves from stocks have been dead for a long time off the bottom, you know, dead cat bounces into supply just like we saw it today with Netflix, with Apple, we saw that today as well. You know, you can't get, you can't get sucked in. All it is is dead cat bounces. Until again, they start reclaiming macro levels. That's all they are. So guys, have a great night everybody. Again, let's see what happens. Okay, I'm open minded. I will give the bulls maybe a candle or two to play themselves out that 317 level is important. If not, we go back to the sell side. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.