 What is going on ladies and gentlemen and welcome to another let's talk crypto I am your host Bitcoin Jay, and this is episode 28 Today we're gonna be discussing a bunch of different things. We're gonna be looking at some headline news What's been going on the big things that have been affecting the market? We're going to look at The economic calendar, of course, and then we're gonna do an analysis on Bitcoin mainly Bitcoin as always that's what we focus on because For the most part everything else follows Bitcoin. So that's what we'll be focusing on during our analysis So in the analysis, we're gonna cover a few things. We've talked about before like the double bottom pattern We're gonna talk about October it is officially October we ended September actually in the green as you guys know September is historically Bitcoin's worst month and And we're gonna talk about a possible the $28,000 Resistance area that we're currently being rejected at And how it could potentially be a deviation to trap some liquidity What we're watching and how you can potentially play this area depending on what happens with the price So I'll be looking at those different things in today's Livestream on today's show. So let's go ahead and dive right in. Let's start off as always I always like to start off with the prices to see overall kind of get a View of where the market is overall. So let's take a look here at Bitcoin you can see over the last week bitcoins up over 4% you theorems up over 2% So as you can see Ethereum is is lagging it a little bit. However, it was up a lot more Ethereum was up about a hundred dollars morose. It was around 1750 But it's come down a bit over the last few days here You can see let's see what up what else is going on in the market anything that stands out XRP is up over 5% and we'll talk a little bit more about XRP But there was some news that came out yesterday. I tweeted it out You can see Solana is one of the bigger winners in the last week up over 20% currently sitting at $22 we have Cardano up almost 5% at 25 cents and We have Polygon Matic up over 11% So those are some of the ones that stand out in the top 25 coins if we look at the overall top 100 coins To see what the biggest winners and losers are Roll Bitcoin up 33% trust wallet up over 20% Solana up 20% we just spoke about Bitcoin SV up 19.8% and Gala up 15 and a half percent on the top losers we have Radex Down 15% ton coin down 10.2 percent Terraluna classic down 9.2 percent curved out down seven and a half percent and Frax share Down five and a half percent. So now that we've kind of taken a look at where the market is as far as that Let's take a look at the economic calendar. See what's going on here As you can see there hasn't really been too much this week what we did get this week was on Monday We got Jerome Powell a Jerome Powell speech I'm not sure if that played a part into why Bitcoin began to fall because before the speech Bitcoin was up over $28,000 After the speech Bitcoin was below $28,000. So that could have played a part And looking over the rest of the week today is Wednesday Nothing too big here that stands out to me. Let's see tomorrow We have a few more people from the Fed that will be speaking there We have some jobless claims and then on Friday. We have the unemployment rate now unemployment rate could impact the overall markets Which could have ended a direct effect on the DXY and on Bitcoin. So Something to just kind of keep in mind. I Unless it's something, you know, very very far from consensus I don't think it's going to impact or bring too much volatility into the market But just something to keep an eye on Let's take a look at The next week so next week October 12th is is that that's in what? Yeah, so that's gonna be next Thursday So next Thursday we have the core inflation. So inflation reports are coming back out on Thursday So that's gonna be something that's could potentially bring some volatility a lot of volatility Into the markets depending on how that report comes out Right now There's no consensus yet. I don't see the the consensus yet on the core inflation rate year over year The previous one that came out was at 4.3 percent Currently, I don't there's no consensus that I currently see here. So we'll catch up on that Next week when we do our live stream As the other thing is the Interest rate hikes that's usually the other thing that on a monthly basis bring some volatility into the market As you'll notice there is no interest rate hikes in October. However There is interest rate hikes on the first so the first of November there will be the next meeting where they make the decision If we look here at the problem at the target rate probabilities for the first of November Which is the next meeting you can see that right now the market is Predicting that there will again be a pause and there will be no interest rate hike So that's currently where the market overall is sitting at We're not expecting another rate hike here in in November. We're expecting another pause so from here to then if anything might change it Will get priced into the market. So for if for any reason It comes out and the market starts believing that there will be another rate hike We'll most likely see it here and that will get priced in so we would potentially see prices In the overall markets probably drop a bit if that were to come out or if that were to happen, right? So that's currently where we're at if we look onto the next meeting, which would be the final meeting in December once again right now the highest probability is for a pause in December as well and it looks like the same thing for January March I'm trying to see when they might the market might be expecting a Rate cut so it looks like in March is the highest probability for that first rate cut It's at 31% right now In June that goes up to us 36% so they're expecting by June potentially a rate cut And I'm sure if we continue going You will continue seeing these these Percentages is probabilities going up so you can see here by September of 2024 market is expecting potentially two rate cuts by then and For November market to expect. I'm sorry December of 2024 Market is expecting potentially three rate cuts So again rate cuts would be very very bullish overall for the market And that means things will go up and that's why we're expecting 2024 and then going into 2025 as well a bullish overall a year for all markets not only crypto and Bitcoin I'm talking about 2024 if we're going to be talking about that one thing that we need to of course be aware of Bitcoin halving date It is in 2024. Let me see if I can get the clock Here's it. Here's the countdown. So the Bitcoin halving clock There is 195 days 15 hours 38 minutes 7 seconds until the next halving so it's expected To be on in April on April 17th 2024. So that's about a hundred and ninety five days away Again, that's usually a very very bullish Event for Bitcoin overall and that's usually when we really see prices start to take off in the crypto markets So let's go ahead and take a look at Some headline news this week the main things That we're popping up here was that a grayscale files with the SEC to convert Ethereum trust to spot ETF So that's in part why we we saw Ethereum you can see that Ethereum on Monday the same day that this report came out It ran all the way up to $1,775 so 1775 With that report and then the very next day that entire move got basically we traced all the way back down So that's the thing with these big big moves like this a lot of the times They're gonna get retraced right back down So a lot of times when we see these overextended moves the best plays are usually to open a position in the opposite direction And those tend to be very very profitable if you catch them at the right time And then the next thing that we saw here was The judge rejects this SEC's motion to appeal ripple XRP ruling So what exactly does this mean? If you guys remember back in let me see when was it? Do they have a date here? It doesn't show the date here, but about a month or so ago The judge ruled that basically in favor of ripple in saying that it was not a considered a security When traded on basically on on platforms on exchanges so The SEC of course that that was a big blow to the SEC and when that report came out we remember that XRP If we kind of go back here It went all the way up almost to a dollar right it went all the way up to 93 cents And then it retraced that entire move just like we spoke about on ethereum's move Yes, Monday, right a lot of times when price gets overextended the best play is to play in the opposite direction And you can see that that would have been a very very profitable trade So Yesterday we saw XRP price once again go up it was up 5% yesterday. We're seeing now price go down a bit today But that was basically because of that news, right? So The S the SEC tried to appeal The ruling that was basically against them by the judge and the judge rejects the The SEC's motion to appeal that ruling so that ruling is now going to stand And that's going to be a big victory for the crypto industry overall. You can see Here Okay, so those in July The federal court reached the verdict in July that ripple XRP was not a security a major one for the crypto industry The victory also signaled a weakness in the SEC's attempt to regulate the crypto industry The SEC proceeded to file an appeal against ripple XRP and the ruling and that's what Got rejected. So according to the official court order The court also rejects the SEC argument that the questions Presented are controlling questions of law because the certified issues have Presidential value for a large number of cases So a spokesperson For the SEC and ripple have yet to comment on the latest ruling both the SEC and ripple must submit motions To the mine for a jury trial by December 4th of this year The jury trial will be held sometime in quarter two of 2024 so that is a big win overall for crypto and something that we need to watch for as That goes to trial in 2024 another below to Gary Jensler and he just continues to look Ridiculous, right? So now that we've covered the main headlines news that I wanted to cover today Let's go ahead and jump into the Bitcoin analysis To see pretty much where where things are overall with crypto with Bitcoin and what I'm watching What I'm keeping an eye on et cetera et cetera And I want to start it off with this thread that I did on on Twitter today I did this on Twitter and I did this on threads If you guys want to check that out so Basically, this is a part of the in-depth analysis that I do every Monday in our discord group I do basically a breakdown from the monthly time frame weekly time frame in daily time frames And this is in this thread I basically break down kind of the middle right the weekly time frame and And so you guys have an idea of how how it is that I'm analyzing the market and what it is that I'm looking at So an interesting thing here was that on Monday When we had the big move up here Right, this was on Monday this move up here I was interested one of my one of my favorite plays to make When trading is when I have something like this where we break above a previous resistance, especially when it's a major resistance and Then get a retest of that resistance So initially when I saw that I was like, all right, I'm opening along on the on a retest here Because once we get this retest here at 28 We can potentially consolidate there for a bit and continue up higher However when I Analyze did further I kind of it kind of brought me to a different conclusion and that's kind of what we'll look at here We'll we'll talk about here today So the main thing here is Bitcoin ended September with a rally into $27,000 which on the first date of October went on to $28,000 so looking at the chart here and if you're listening to this in the podcast basically the last day of Well on the 28th of September we rallied all the way up above 27,000 kind of consolidated there for the next few days and then on the first day of this month We broke above 28,000 for for the first time since back in August So that was a big move there that it's the highest price that we've seen since Back in August so so it was very very bullish right now another thing here if we look at Let's put up Bitcoin Monthly returns here real quick so I could bring up this chart Remember that we spoke about last month that September was one of the most historically one of the most bearish months for Bitcoin So we actually finished in the green now It wasn't a super green month, but we did finish up on the month of September We the Bitcoin's price ended up three ended up being up 3.91% on the month now we're coming into October aka up October which is historically one of Bitcoin's most bullish months as you can see over the last few years and Just if we go all the way back to 2013 Which is one two three four five six seven eight nine ten eleven? So without counting this year we have ten years of data here and out of the ten years only two of those years has Bitcoin's price gone down in October hence the name right so Looking over the last few years we can see back in 2020 Bitcoin's price went up 27% in 2021 Bitcoin's price went up 39% and this is just in the month of October Last year Bitcoin's price went up five and a half percent So now we're coming into up to October currently up about one and a half percent so just kind of setting the The the the overview here of you know what what we could potentially be looking at in October, right? one of Bitcoin's most bullish months also if we look at The quarter he returns for Bitcoin We can see that the fourth quarter is Usually the most bullish month for Bitcoin as well You can see that the third quarter is usually Bitcoin's one of Bitcoin's worst months historically, right? It looks like the first quarter and the third quarter are usually bad months for Bitcoin Second and fourth are usually typically pretty decent months for Bitcoin That that's pretty much, you know what that looks like right now historically speaking. So now going back to the Twitter thread The the main questions here when I was looking into And when I was analyzing the chart was first of all Are we seeing a breakout or a deviation above range highs to trap liquidity? right and also I Again, I keep I'm still keeping an eye on the double bottom pattern that nobody seems to be talking about in on Bitcoin's chart so So we're gonna we're gonna talk about Supporting resistance levels chart patterns liquidity levels imbalances and wick fills all Which all help us kind of determine which way Bitcoin's price could potentially go next. So starting off here with supporting resistance Currently we got rejected at that twenty eight thousand dollar area, right? We will need for this weekly candle to close Above twenty eight thousand dollars by the end of the week for it to flip into a support now, but the other thing that that That we have here that's kind of bullish is that we broke above the downward trend line from last week's report So now we broke above it. It was sitting at around twenty seven thousand dollars And now we've successfully Retested it so if we can stay above it that might be become a support trend line now, right? Moving on to the chart patterns, of course the main chart pattern remains which is that double bottom pattern It is still valid a breakout above the neckline which sits around twenty eight thousand dollars We give us a target of about thirty six to thirty seven thousand dollars now Remember this is a weekly chart meaning that this is not going to happen right off the rip Right is not it's probably won't happen this month or anything like that. It'll take a few months This could be something that plays out over the span of quarter four so So we could potentially see this target as we end This year or going into as we go into 2024 Now liquidity levels the most immediate zone of liquidity is once again back at the lower levels Which is twenty six thousand dollars and twenty five thousand dollars This could point to the downside to to the downside targets if the market were to move lower And if we look at the liquidity levels here In this liquidity map provided by high block capital, we can see the brighter yellow Points on this map points to that downside, which is in that twenty six thousand dollar range. So That's one piece of the puzzle right But it is it is something that I always like to look for when I'm trying to figure out which way the price might move next Now as far as imbalances last week's move left big imbalances all the way down to twenty six thousand dollars Now fifty percent of that of that imbalance would be around twenty seven thousand dollars, which we've pretty much already filled And that's an important number to to know because prices typically like to fail at least fifty percent of the imbalances So that's always something that I like to track If we pull up the the candle the chart here, we can see on the weekly time frame here you know this big Candle here left this this major imbalance and and that's something that I think I I Drew it somewhere here. Let me see Here it is so You can see that this this is the imbalance that we left behind and that goes all the way down to about twenty six thousand dollars So if price were to retrace Now we have we have a potential target because one there's an imbalance to there's Liquidity the biggest liquidity is down in that area as well So that gives us two different reasons why we could potentially return to that twenty six thousand dollar price Moving on to wicks we have a small way to the downside where fifty percent of the week is at twenty five point five Thousand dollars hundred percent of the week would be at twenty five thousand dollars once again These are important to track and these are important to know Because price tends to retest these levels where that where there was liquidity left behind Because the move the price moved so quickly, right? So once again if we look at the chart we can see this these big Candles sticks here where where we could potentially return to that level so Again that that gives us another reason why That could be we could we could potentially see at least one more move to the downside Or retracement before potentially continuing up higher so After after kind of looking at all that In conclusion this analysis and to remind you guys this analysis overall was done on Monday And if we look at that the first chart here, we can see that I was Pointing out that we had a deviation to the upside above the range highs to potentially trap the longs so that's kind of when I did this analysis here and when I concluded that That it the the best play right now was probably or during that time was to short Bitcoin at $28,000 and that's exactly when it ended up happening as you can see we got rejected at 28,000 And price moved as low as 27,000 so You know to begin this this analysis I told you guys that my initial thoughts when I looked at the chart I saw a setup that I like to take it's usually want one a pretty simple setup where we have a breakout You have a retest and a continuation up But after doing a deeper dive into the analysis and prices it You know it started to make more sense that price instead would probably more and most likely be rejected And move down at that $28,000 level So that's kind of higher than playing it, right? and That's pretty much it as far as that you get you guys can take a look at that I put that up on Twitter that entire thread there And then now looking at this right now. It's basically we're basically at the same thing now right now I'm looking at it on the daily time frame and we can see that the the range that Bitcoin's price has been trading at over Basically since August so over the last couple months now in in September the big the early September We saw a deviation to the downside to trap liquidity and trap short traders, right? So people saw We were ranging ranging ranging between 25 all the way to 28 Then we broke down below 25 and went as low as 24,000 and That was a deviation to the downside Trapped a bunch of liquidity and then look what happened with the price and moved all the way back up to a high of 27500 right so we almost went all the way back up to 28,000 then we kind of consolidated a bit we tested 26 25 one more time and then now went up higher now What happens here? This looks very very similar to what happened down here. This could be potentially a deviation Above at range highs to trap some of that liquidity there. So now we can potentially see Prices retrace a bit here Maybe not all the way back down to 25,000, but I wouldn't we've already gone down to 27. I wouldn't be surprised if we test 26 so There's a lot of liquidity down there So the way I'm playing it if we get any other and any more pushes to the upside To $28,000 I'm probably looking to short it for now for the moment I'm probably not looking too long until we get above this maybe this Fibonacci level, which is sitting around $29,000 and then again once we get there. We have a big resistance at 30,000. So for the meantime I'm looking to short here at 28,000 in that range For longs, I'm probably looking I'll be waiting to around 26,000 for a long opportunity. So right now. I don't like any longs here in this area. I I like longs I like shorts more in this area and to the downside I I'll be looking for longs if you do retrace further I'll be looking for longs at that 26 and 25,000 dollar range So basically my that's how I'm playing this for the rest of this week and probably going into next week Now remember going into next week. We have the Next week we have of course the what do you call it the it's gonna come it's gonna come it's gonna come Inflation rates, right? So we have that on Thursday and that's gonna bring volatility into the market. So you know that could potentially be a catalyst in one direction or the other we kind of got to be careful and kind of and kind of see What that does to prices if we see that price gets potentially overextended in one direction or the other then like we showed you guys we could you know, just kind of take the opposite Trading the opposite direction, which is usually pretty successful, right? Again, if we look at what happened here with Bitcoin after this big move up If you would have taken that move and gone open the position into the opposite direction You would have had a pretty successful move there. So, you know with that coming up next week That's something that we'll be taking a look at, you know, if there's an overreaction in one direction or the other We'll be looking to open up either longs or shorts at that support or resistance level. So Now if you guys have any questions if you guys want to ask me anything about anything that we've covered or anything going on right now On the market drop it in the comments. If not, we'll go ahead and wrap things up I see 300 rivers is in here. Good afternoon, my brother I appreciate you being in here appreciate you tuning in as always a pleasure having you in here Who else is in here? Let me know in the chat I'm gonna take a drink of water because I've been rambling on non-stop for half an hour at this point And I'm gonna give you guys a chance if you have any questions for me. If not, we'll wrap things up here. Let's So yeah, so if you guys are interested in this In this thread that I did you guys can check me out on on Twitter Bitcoin X daily If And also on threads I have the same thing up on there Bitcoin dot daily. So you guys can check that out And it's basically I'll be doing this probably once a week posting it up here One of the one of the parts of the analysis if you want this in-depth breakdown weekly You guys can join the discord channel. We do that on Mondays is when we release these I Might be I might start up a newsletter. Let me know what you guys think about that Might start up some sort of newsletter Or I send these out weekly and things like that. I think that'll be pretty cool Yeah, let me know what you guys think about that I might be a pretty good idea But I don't see any questions coming in so I'm gonna go ahead and wrap things up once again I appreciate you I appreciate you guys tuning in to Lex. Let's talk crypto at episode 28 Once we'll do our next one next week. I'm not sure exactly what day But I'm trying to do it early on in the week so I can tell you, you know, what to expect for the whole week So hopefully on Monday, I'll be able to do it next week Once again this week Monday and Tuesday was really jam-packed with a bunch of things going on So I wasn't able to do it but Next week I will try to do do the live stream on Monday. I've also been thinking about potentially doing these kind of like early morning breakdowns on You know kind of Going live like that, you know, let's say 9 10 a.m. Eastern Standard Time And just just kind of looking over the market and not being not doing anything too long But let's say like a 15 20 minute live stream where I just kind of take a look at the market Take a look at what's going on with price and what you know What my thoughts are at that point and you know how what to look forward to for the rest of the day type thing So I'm thinking of maybe Incorporating something like that into into the channel. I think that'll be kind of cool It's something that I do every day every morning regardless So I've been thinking about that I see 100 deaths in here What's going on my brother haven't seen you in a bit? He says well Bitcoin ever actually go back up like it was in 2020. Yeah 100% You just got to be a little patient But we're we're getting there right now. We're in We're basically at the tell-end of the bear market and I'm expecting 2024 as a halving approaches for Bitcoin's price to really start to take off and Towards the end of 2024 is when I think we could see Bitcoin's prices being at, you know, potentially 50 $60,000 once again 2025 I could potentially see Bitcoin's set up new all-time highs at that point potentially in the range of $100,000 so yeah, I think 100% we're gonna see that At some point in the next one to two years So I know it's tough to have to wait one to two years. It sucks, but we're almost there guys It's been it's been a slow time in crypto, but I think we're getting there Bitcoin's price bit has been holding up very very very very strong here and There's a lot of bullish things that's coming up The Bitcoin halving of course coming up in 195 days Which is the most bullish event in crypto. We have the What do you call it? Interest rate cuts, it's eventually going to happen, right? That's expected in in around mid 2024 towards the end of 2024 and then Just those two events alone should be really big for crypto then we add on ETS guys the spot Bitcoin ETS are going to come. It's only a matter of time, right? So that's eventually gonna happen once that happens a lot more institutional money's gonna come into the market Which should bring Just the overall crypto value up overall so with those three things You know, I think Bitcoin could 100% Hit a hundred thousand dollars and beyond at that point. So Yeah, I think you just got to hang on tight a little bit longer continue to dollar cost average during any dips You know this year has been probably the best dollar cost average year ever price has basically consolidated for long stretch of the time we had a Dip all the way down to what was it like around $15,000 and then we're at 18 to $20,000 for awhile That was a perfect buying opportunity, right? Then we've now we've kind of been hanging around 20,000 to 28,000 dollars for a while now Again great buying opportunities, right and outcoins as well. They've been very very cheap We have things like Salon at $23 that could potentially that you know, Salona used to be over a hundred dollars Over I think $200, right? We have Ethereum I'm still sitting at 1641 guys the theorem was at $4,000 over $4,000 a few years ago And I think it has a potential to hit $10,000 in the next two years That's basically a 10x from our prices right now Avax is at $10. Avax was over $100 a couple years ago I think that could happen again XRP sitting at 53 cents. We already seen XRP is is Probably going to win its case its trial It's already it's already winning some of the things going on there We've gotten some big news here and this could potentially go to you know I wouldn't be surprised for this to go to three four or five dollars in the next two years And yeah, there's a lot of things just like this, you know, we have Cardinals at 25 cents It was at $3 at one point Matic is at 56 cents. It was at $2 or beyond at one point So there's there's a lot of opportunity in the market right now So this is a perfect time to just kind of dollar cost average Is what I always recommend just weekly is the way I do it weekly I put a little bit of money into all my favorite projects and don't look at it Right every single week when it price goes down put a little bit of money into my favorite projects And that's it. So that's what I recommend any extra change that you have even if it's $10 a week or something like that It's gonna be worth it because it's going to add up over the year So and then before you know it prices are gonna start taking off and and then you'll be able to start taking some profits So I just got it got to be a little patient guys Yeah, a hundred deaths says gotta be patient in this space a lot of naysayers out there when it's quiet Yeah, 100% there's always a lot of fun a lot of a lot of people trying to manipulate prices as well And because a lot of institutions are trying to get in and they want to get in at cheaper prices. So You know, they're gonna put out foot. So be careful with that Ducky Dave what's going on man? Great to see you in here again Ducky Dave says I have most of my funds in my coinbase wallet if coinbase were to go through a FTX type drama when my funds would be safe. So I do I do Think that Coinbase is probably one of the safer places to have Funds because they are they are a publicly traded company right so they have to have a lot of That to basically go by by the law they have to be by the book Unlike FTX that was offshore They were like in the Bahamas and they were just they they were doing all sorts of shady things that nobody was able to know because there's no Transparency when you're a publicly traded company, you need to be transparent about everything you do because there's a board that you need to report to right? So everything has to be by the book and by law. If not the SEC you'll be coming after them The you know, they're they're they're stocks or tank all that stuff, right? So it is I think it I don't think there would ever be a FTX type of situation on Coinbase Because they they're set up legally By the law and completely different and they're set up in the United States, right? So they there's a lot of laws that they have to abide by so Although with all that said, I still do think that the best way to keep your funds is, you know In a cold in the cold storage right in a cold wallet That's gonna be the safest thing if you don't have a cold wallet And the next best thing is probably to don't have all your funds in one wallet, right? Just kind of diversify it into different spots But overall, I think Coinbase would be the safest place to have your funds. I think another safe one is Gemini Gemini also in the in the United States, right? They're they're they're by the book by the law They're there it's it's in crypto. It's safe for crypto, right? Though they're probably the two safe safest exchanges that I that I would say Overall in the market right now to have if you're gonna keep your funds on an exchange So, yeah, appreciate the questions guys. I am going to go ahead and wrap it up here See you guys on the next one. If you guys have any questions drop it in the comments. I'll put this up live on Spotify as well if you want to listen to it on the podcast if you missed any of it So thank you guys for tuning in. I'll see you guys on the next one as always peace and love