 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, folks. I'm Basil Chapman. We are on the ninth day of March. What is it? 13th anniversary. Why didn't I say to my subscribers this morning? This is the March the 9th anniversary of the low of the S&P back in 2009. On the 6th, that was Friday, we went along the diamonds, and that was the 6th of March, Friday of 2009, and on the Monday, the S&P made its low. So just anniversary date, that's all. But what I am looking at here, and I'm going to go immediately to a whole bunch of questions, because this is such an important moment. And what I said for the last couple of days, and I emphasized it again yesterday, that I had been talking about sometime in the fall, I said, I don't like the market at this particular point. If anybody is taking money out of the market, you could take that money out and just over a period of months or slowly take little tranches and put them into the market to average cost. Now, we knew nothing about war. That was just because of the market conditions of getting cell signals that were coming up, that I felt we were really close to, and that was just a stance that we took. We were still long from March the 23rd, the day of the low of 2020, initially through options, but a week later, we got into the diamonds and we stood in those diamonds just under 211. And I said, we've taken, I want to keep that core, and I don't think we're going down to that level, no matter what. I just don't see it. That can change. But what did change was that instead of looking at the market, we were looking at conditions that were changing around the world because of war between Russia and Ukraine. That said to me that nothing based on the traveling methodology, based on money management, I thought I clarified that yesterday, I had another question about it, but it was on money management that said, why not if the market shoots up from here, just whatever reason, let's just say there is a diplomatic solution. Nothing's easy, right? I mean, it could still be really choppy, but let's just imagine that everything at least puts the huge fright out of the picture just for the moment, right? So the market moves up and you've taken a little bit off out of all the money you're putting in. You've taken a look. What's the big deal? You can always put it back. I wanted you to have money in case there wasn't a, there still might not be a resolution. You've got to have cash available for all those incredible stocks like on Microsoft and Apple or whatever it is that you missed the big buy before and you'd like to get in. You want money. That's all I'm stating. I've got that out of the way, done. Now let's talk about what is current. What is current is that the dowels of 645, we've seen green candles for days except they don't last as green candles, they've been turning into red candles. What's the difference now? Let me run the numbers and then I'll go through that. Number one is weekly charts are still in sell mode. Monthly charts are still in buy mode. Not even sell signal but buy modes, right? In most of the cases. However, the daily charts had a test, a successful test so far of the pattern I call the dreaded age. It did not take out 32,272. We've got within 300 points, 200 points in an eye blink. You could have taken that out. Case closed. Right? Done. Now we're looking at the chance that there is some kind of either a relief rally or a more sustained rally that says fund managers are thinking now is a good time at least to put some money to work. And Tom was speaking about something yesterday which I thought was quite perceptive in terms of experience and that is that there were no buyers and there were no, he called them real buyers and I agree with that term because a real buyer is where money is put in and every pullback money keeps going in and money keeps going in and prices rise and they sustain a move to the upside. Not where the prices go in and then because markets are coming down they just, there's no sustaining, there's no conviction and basically what we're looking at is conviction of upside action. So the conviction of upside action says, does it 631, we are seeing nothing here until we have not just a move above the left side high of yesterday of 33,402 but we have a high above the 7th of March, 33,579. If we can close above that high, which means we're touching the 33, close to the 32,610 14 period exponential moving average, we might start to see the histogram continue to improve in the daily chart. Magdi has a chance to make a W formation turnaround to the top side, it's got a lot to go. This is Gastic's still very weak at 29% on balance volume, he's not showing a big V shape recovery. This is all in the infant, this is just the early, early stages of an attempt at a turnaround that could be sustained. Let's go to the S&P, what are the numbers there? Well, we went to 4,104.65 and 24th and yesterday we went to 41.57, I believe it was, yeah 41.5787 and that's so far a successful arch formation because usually the acceleration you can see right here in the H pattern, that arch roll over the quadrant, the right side quadrant of the arch accelerates down with just barely a move to the upside. But we haven't seen that here, we've seen a nice rally so far, up 91 at 42.61 right now, up 2.18%. That was only up 1.97%, this is now a nicer move. The QQQ, the QQQ should be having a very good move, yes it's up 851 at 331.90, up 2.63%. Here's the incredible thing, one of the reasons why I said to subscribers to my opening call, rather than choosing individual stocks, there are certain actions we're going to take today, one of them pertains to all subscribers rather than just trading subscribers and the other one applies to trading subscribers. And one of the things we're looking at is, is there a chance that the QQQ NDX100 had a successful test yesterday of the left side low by not going down those extra two points to take out through 1826. And the MACD is held very nicely, which could turn into a negative if you say the MACD still has to go down, but holding well is a good positive divergence and the stochastic is holding better but it's not allows you at 30% and the on balance volume showing nothing. So this is going to be a really a very hard working move to the upside to get all the technicals to coincide to say, huh, we're going to go from a buy signal, which we're not even at now, to even a chance of thinking of a buy mode. So all I'm saying is that this is exactly where you would expect some kind of a relief rally and we're going to go into other things in a moment, but we want to look at the IWM that went from one 1916 in January, I think 24th to every 24th of 187.92. I wrote on it, we said, I'm not going to go over the pink is very high and that's the high of 199.05. We're at 199 right now, but this is a trace good graph. I want to talk about gold. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. Now we're at 42.64 p.m. There's a pattern I've actually started going. I used to do this, but I always found it a little messy, but I decided to put it back in. This is the retracement lines on the flip numbers plus the jam wave methodology. See the green? This is my target resistance line. Unfortunately, I've been just so busy I didn't even train this. I'm just watching. It's terrible. But we've gone to a leg E in the 10-minute chart of the E-mini S&P. All right. Let's get back to our story here. So thank you, GT. I forgot all about the heating oil. It's at a high today. It hit 4.6709 of the continuous contract, trading right now at 3.899. So let's just go through these. Look, you've got heating oil. You've got, let's go to crude oil. Crude oil is now down 5.1729, down 5%. Down 625. This is a peak E, but it's still actually, it hasn't plunged or anything. It definitely has pulled back, but it's still within the last three days trading range. And the stochastic is under 80%. The MACD is very strong. I'm not saying it's overbought near term, but that monthly chart, weekly and monthly charts, these are the charts that we're looking at. And that basically says, just unless there's an agreement that just immediately pulls away the crisis of crude oil in capital letters, making it a crisis in lowercase letters, we'll see what happens. In the meantime, the whole area of 111 to 106, maybe 104, looks like a really good cushion for crude oil. Because no matter what happens, nothing's going to be resolved very quickly, so we're still going to have high prices of crude oil. Let's look at, I want you to go to US, this is bonds. So this is the 30 year T bond, continuous contract 30 year, and it's pulling back sharply, it's at 156 and 630 seconds. Peak D in the Chapman wave says, oh, be careful, 200 period expenditure, moving average resistances, oh, be careful. And yeah, we are pulling sharply away. This is going to be very important down 28, 30 seconds at 156 and 730 seconds. So if you do this with the TLT, which most people have on their chart patterns, they don't always have bonds, you can see that only made it peak C and it's pulling back sharply, never even got upside action at all. And this is basically saying that yields remain in the higher range, and we have the Fed today. Under these conditions, do you think the Fed wants to royal the market, especially on an up day? If it's up by, you never know if it's up by two o'clock, it could be down 600, it's up 600 right now, in the down. I suspect that what they're going to say is a quarter point is there, it's the next one, quarter point or a half a point, but we're going to let market conditions tell us, and it's telling us right now, yes, you can go ahead with the quarter point, but that's because we've been talking about it for so long. I suspect that they're going to have a very, I wouldn't call it dovish, but what they're going to have is a dovish nuance within a context that is the action will be dovish, but the words could be a little bit more hawkish. I think that's the best way to do so. Who knows? But that's what I'm expecting. They could royal the market if they say, hey, there's enough evidence to say that economic conditions have up until now, and that's what we look at. We can't project ahead, but up until now, these have been very good numbers that we've seen and that we feel that we need right now to go up a quarter point, and there's a chance that we will still put that 50 basis point move in the future, but it might turn out to be a quarter point. Who knows? It doesn't matter because we have to wait for it, but we'll let them tell us. But the TLT is saying, based on our look at the TNX, this is the TNX, is the 10-year yield, that yield, oh, the generation pattern successful, and you've got yourself generally falling X, that means you make a top, and then you come down, and you're making lower highs and much lower lows. Just make it as simple as possible. At any point this week, if you see the TNX holding, not just popping, but holding in the 1950 area, 1.95 is at 1.913 right now. That is a breakout of this particular pattern. It says, uh-oh, be careful because rates are still holding really high. So the Fed might not have to do anything because the reality is that the yields have been holding high in any case. All right, that's Bondi. We haven't done Dolly. That's the dollar. Look at the dollar. SHOP, we've now done 91 ticks at 98.16 piki. The way I'm looking at this is that these numbers, these electors in the Chapman-Wade methodology, they don't just appear for nothing. They are telling us that to have a sharp move off a peak, D, E, or F, is telling us that the last couple of bars were becoming overbought, and now we're resolving that overbought situation. So that's the data, not the issue. The issue is still only in leg E at 98.16 with a high three days ago of 99.80, was it? 99.42. Let me just type that in. That doesn't get smooth out. Those numbers always stay 99.42. Whoops, 42. All right, so that's the dollar. And Vixie, let's just do the Vixie. Oh, no, no, no, no. I wanted to show you gold. Gold is pulling back very sharply, but it's to where it was three days ago, right? Big deal, 1998. It did hit. I usually have a problem putting the numbers in here because this gets smoothed out, and then all of a sudden it looks silly. 2078.8 is the number right now on the 8th of August, and we're trading in 1997. Gold, I think, is still in play as the fear factor just at the moment. But if gold starts to trade under 1944, let's call it 1942, because 1944 is the 14 period exponential moving average. And I don't mean to pop a slide below it, whoosh, like that. It needs to hold below 1442. It's at this particular moment, and what I say to subscribers is let's take a little bit more off our gold position because I think that just for the shorter term, there is a very over board condition, and it needs to resolve. We'll keep a small position, hopefully, and we will see if we want to get back in again. And now let's look at silver. Silver is a little different chart. Remember, silver lags, then it catches up. Once it catches up, I'm always a little nervous, and I always say, okay, now they're in sync. Usually that's a good sign, and gold needs to pull back and it will drag silver down. So silver hasn't noticed yet. It's still reading the New York Times, hasn't woken up, still having its coffee. When it does, I suspect that it'll break under 26, and that'll be a test. If it closes under 26, it says 25.23 is probably key support in silver, but it's holding. At this point, it's really holding well at 26.49. It's only done 40 cents. Let's go to high grade copper. High grade copper is trading down at 4.615, down 0.09. It's got that peak E. Look at what you can expect from a peak E, if you get everything in sync, and it's pulled back sharp. I think copper is still in play, but how it holds 4.50 is going to be absolutely key. Right, everyone? Is everything in sync? Oh, the Vixie. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Shards today by visiting TFNN.com. So we've got a quarter on the line. I'm sorry, Victor. We're getting used to this new apparatus that we've got. It's really, really very nice, but there's a lot of action that you've got to go through. So you want to know about OTLY. And I saw in the den, I thought someone mentioned OTLY. So I picked it up, but I haven't done any work on it. This is the Oatly Group. And the Oatly Group is saying, oh, well, I'm going to press this, and let's see if I don't get a whole bunch of investors' business daily things now. Okay. Oatly Group does what? Oh, there it is. Like a whole bunch of things pop up. I've never looked at them during the day. But let's see if I can get rid of them right now. Could China be out? Okay. So OTLY Group, formerly known as Havre Global AB, is a Sweden-based oat drink company. The company makes products such as ice cream, yoghurt, and spirits. OTLY Group. All right. All right. Well, it was an IPO back in early summer of last year, 2021. Oh, no, 2021, up in the 20 area. And it screams up to 28 very quickly. It doesn't scream. It balances. And then it's just had red candles almost every month since then. And today it made a low of $5.14. Big green candle covering everything else. Yeah, yeah, you could call this an overwhelming candle. Let's just say that the day is young. So I don't know, Victor, if you were into it or whether you're looking to buy, I would suggest to you that the risk reward at $5.94 right now, preferably if it was trading at about $5.50, I say, you know, with a low yesterday, early this morning of $5.14, just to start a position with a 10% risk in something that's just been down every single month. And look at the weekly chart almost every single week. Maybe that's a way to go to see if it can hold because if this has a strong candle tomorrow, goes towards 626 to 9 period exponential moving average, that would say it started to move. It's done it before, but it didn't hold. And it has a characteristic of a big, big green candle. And then it makes the dreaded age pattern. It can hold, but it's still a pattern that says you've got a high risk. So, Victor, I would advise you, you're interested in it and obviously you've done some homework. And I know that you're like to look at stocks that have been hammered with a chance that they really turn around and make something more than just a bounce. They make more an intermediate term move. I can't see an intermediate term move here at this moment. I can't say to you that the characteristic of the doji candle yesterday was a big green candle, an engulfing candle. If it closes above not just the high of yesterday, which was 592, but the high of the day before, which is 607, then I, then I can say to you as a trade that all I can think of right now is you have to think of this as a trade. There's not a single clue that says, oh, this is below. And now you're looking at a stock that's going all the way back to 25. No way. Just step by step. And this is the first, it's not even a step. It's an inch a day move. So, if I went to the 120 minute chart, I'd say, you know what? This is a really good candle. The magdies are starting to turn up and hasn't crossed positive. The stochastics are 24% from single digits. This is a good sign. I'm going to suggest to you start your position. Now, what you have as a stop is entirely up to you. If you had, if it was me, I would not give it more than, I would give it 7%, even though it's just a starter position. And usually a starter position, I like to at least widen the stop. I wouldn't give it more than that. Start a position. I would only add to it probably on, by Friday, that's another two and a half days. If it's straight in the 626 or higher area, I would say, you know what? There's a chance that this is where you could start to add a little bit more. So, yes, start your business, start your engines. $5.95. Personally, I would have a $5.55 stop on it taken out. In fact, I'll probably say $5.65. It's got to work right now. $5.55, $5.65 is my stop. I can always get back in. I don't want to hang around. This is going to fail. So, it's $5.91, $5.65 is at least the stop, even though it's a starter position. As it breaks to the upside, if it's going to do that, if it can go above $6.13 today, not even tomorrow, but today, I would just make my stop $0.20 loss, maybe even break even. I would make it fairly tight, and now a break even would be too tight. But I would definitely have a stop, make it, I would shorten the price. I'd just make it a much smaller stop. Okay, that's Oatly Group AB, and we're looking at it now, pulling back a little bit to $5.88. Now, there are a couple of things I wanted to go through. Questions? So, yes, so what Teddy Kecksek was saying, his next objective would be $1.50. That was the one of the questions on crude oil. And he's been so perfect about talking about $100, minimum of $100, and he raised it just recently, but $150. All right, now let's go through some aspects that I think are really important right now. Within the confines of all the different aspects that we're looking at, a lot of questions came up. GDX, where would you, if you've taken some profits, where would you put money back? Well, it's down 91 cents at $0.3765. If you're just purely on my work, if you're looking purely technically, I'd say if you've just taken profits, and you've kept a little bit, I don't think at this point I would add back right now. Yeah, that's a leg D in the weekly chart, doji candle, but it's only Wednesday. Broke out in the monthly chart. That's a nice breakout pattern, but I have to wait for the whole month to see where it closes. And it's gone out, but the monthly chart is still young. It's not even two weeks into the month. So we're only looking at this L coming in right now, meaning long, because the nine period is crossed over the 14, but the month is young, that could change. What I am looking at is, in gold, I did this yesterday. Didn't I show this yesterday? I think I did. I showed the charts and I said, gold is in the leg after the upside. Where was it? Let me just double check. Did I change that? A, B, C. So that's E. That made a G. And then this wasn't F. I don't know why I had it. I think I took it off for some reason. It's made a Pg in the Chapman Way methodology. And that says that that is a reversal that has to be respected. And that makes 20, 20, 23 strong nine and 40 period moving average resistance in the 120 minute chart. But if it takes out today's low of 1981, there's a real good chance that you could go to the 1960s quite quickly. That's that left side low. That was there about the seventh, the sixth or seventh of the month. We're looking at crude oil made. Oh, that's where it was. Okay, let me just do this. Type this in here. We're looking at crude oil. Yep, that made a Pd. And he has a dreaded H pattern right here. Look. Pick APP, C, C failure. There it is. And that just suggests that 170, 93. If 114 support is taken out, there could be a quick dip to 112 to 110. And we're going to see as the music's playing right there. There we go. So there's the dreaded H pattern. Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area, including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets, Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area. 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I've done them in the past and I had really done them for a while, but I thought an opportunity because there are so many stocks that have been taken down and then significantly from their hires. And so I've been trying to focus on they can be in any industry. It doesn't matter. It has more to do with the chart itself, that they're at levels I think have potential. They have a solid enough fundamental basis that makes it worth looking at them. And so I've done probably the best one I've had so far is Overstock. I bought that one down at 36 and it's up in the 50s now. But this one I bought this morning. Some I've done before, some I've done after the earnings came out. There came out this morning. I've waited. It got down, which was surprising at 87. The earnings are really good, but at 87 I bought calls there. So this is what happened to me at the moment. So just to clarify because I know this is what you do often. You've bought calls, but you also have the stock? This is what I'm only doing. I've actually kind of gotten to a point on the M&R, some stock to own actual shares of what I've been doing lately with earnings. I've just been doing options solely. Okay. So let's do this. Folks will be looking at his four industries, recreational vehicles. They include Airstream, Hartman, Jaco, Living Life. So they're really into the outdoors activity in a huge way. So I had thought a particular stock that we had, but we don't have it anymore, was Six, which was part of the outdoor entertainment area, Six Flags Entertainment. And they came out with earnings, which I thought were not too bad, but the market didn't like it. And it's almost the same thing when I look at THO. It's almost as if the market is kind of ignoring it right now, because don't forget, you do have high gas prices, although my inclination is to think that a lot of people who do the outdoor stuff are prepared to pay for gas if they can have their recreational fun. So with that said, the patent that I'm looking at for months now has been lower lows and lower highs. However, the patent that I know that you're aware of the patent that I talked about, that's the dreaded H patent, the lower case H that tests the left side low. That was very successful yesterday, but the day is young, and we'll see what happens there, because it wasn't on the move to the 24th. It went to a lower low, and then very quickly came back and went above the low that was way to the 24th of Jan. So this is the second time, and it went, it did not break the left side low, and that's important. And it's gapped up today up $5,020 at $89.98. So there are a couple of things that I'm looking at. If I was to take my trend lines and my channel lines, and all I do is I make, you know, from the outside of a channel, three sixteenths or a sixteenth, I make another little tiny little channel, a trend, and I do that to the larger channel as well. And that says, this held beautifully above the Chapman Wave inside track by zone. If there was one yesterday and the day before, it held beautifully just above 80. And it's up 11% at this particular point from that low. Most importantly, it's headed towards, it's trying to go towards the resistance level, which would be at 94. So this is the way I would look at it. Do you have what month of your calls? I just went out to the March monthly to the 18th to the next, not this coming Friday, but the next Friday. So you've got about two, just over two weeks. So this is what I'm going to say to you. I know that you watch these things closely, and you usually have a plan. And occasionally you'll, you'll moderate your plan as you're moving along, because it's done something better or worse than you were expecting. So you do have some flexibility. It's very early in the lift off to say that this should go straight towards the 93 area. What I would say to you, especially based on the daily, the weekly, and even the monthly charges, it's just a lot of technical work that it needs to do. But if there is a close between today and tomorrow above today's high of 91.50, now I'm saying a close. In other words, if it goes above that today and then closes above where we are right now, 91.50, that's going to be, that's really what you want to see. Number one, number two is there has to be followed in this particular pattern. There could be a one day rest. I don't want to see two days of rest. It's just maximum one day of rest. And then you start your next leg to the upside. So I know that you have options within two weeks. It feels like a long time. You and I know that if there was a pullback to 85, you can sit staring at those calls as they they shrink and shrink and shrink. And then there could be one sudden explosive root to the upside or nothing could happen. So you want action really quickly. And what I would prefer to see is that rather than weaken where we are at 89.80 right now and go down to the 89.30 level, I want to see strength come in later in the day. Because I agree with you, just your thinking is that it's in the right, it could be in the right area for the next couple of months. But in the meantime, on a short term basis, you're saying over oversold should have a rally. If that's the thinking, it has to do that because if it's if it takes out the days low of 87.33, it's not going anywhere fast. So I think you this is the moment that's really important. You want to see a close to date higher than where it is now at 90. You want to see something at the 90 56 or higher area. And you want to follow through tomorrow. If you get that, that's just the start of this H pattern that could could turn into a cup pattern. But I would go one step at a time. And what I'm going to say to you in the option, if this is just one week to go, I'd say if this actually pops to 94, take as much as you can off and keep a little bit. But this might be a slow grind that by Monday or Tuesday of next week, if everything works out, if the market actually continues rallying, this has a chance to get to 93 to 94. If it does that, that's a really good sign to say that you're in the money. And that now it's entirely your choice as to what you want to do with your taking a little bit off, putting a little bit more on whatever it is. But that's basically what you want to see. You want to see it challenging the resistance channel of 93 to 94 sometime preferably this week without taking out today's low. That just to me would say, what a nice trade because all of a sudden that weekly chart has a chance either this week or next week to break above 95, 31, the 200 period, the 14 period moving average and close above it for the first time since it broke down back in October, the week of the 15th of October, 2021, when it was up at 125. So this will be the first time that you've actually seen that being challenged. So yeah, I like your entry point. I like your thinking, but it has to now do the work. All right. Thank you so much, Bowsy. Have yourself a wonderful day. Thank you very much. Good luck. We'll be looking at this chart closely. It's $609. That's the action we wanted to see. I'll be back in a minute. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. 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We once had this when we were using it for Crude Oil a long time ago. I shouldn't have used it for Crude Oil this time, but we didn't. We're using the DBA, which is the Agricultural Fund, which has also been fantastic. So it says, bought them several years ago at $26.50. Finally, I recovered the losses. Should I hold for higher prices or sell it here? So this is a completely different thing. I'm going to take this minute to talk about exactly what I've been doing for a long time, and I feel very comfortable doing it. It took me a long time. Number one is if you're in something and it doesn't go your way, you've taken something that you thought was a trade and now it becomes, look at this, it becomes a multi-year decade, almost a loss. What I've done now is if I'm wrong, I get out quickly. I'm done. That's what I do with subscribers. We can always get back in. We always make the money back, but I don't want to be there for sitting with a big loss. But it went down to the 10 area. So what I'm going to say to you, John, is it got back to where you wanted. Why not take your money off, have it stop sitting on your shoulder, wagging his finger at you, saying, what a stupid thing. Oh, idiot, what are you doing? Just get out of it. If you want to buy it again, you have to wait a couple of days, and you now have a very fresh position and promise me you'll put in a stop. I'll talk about it again tomorrow, John. I don't want to treat it now as something light. I'm saying to you, it got back to your prices at $26.69. You're even. Thank God, you're even. I don't want to sit through another big slide. So do this. Take the money off. If you ask me my opinion, that's my opinion. And in two days' time, you can start another position. But this time it's got to be smaller and you've got to have a stop and you've got to be strict. But I wouldn't do that right away. Just take something off and now you can say, thank goodness it's off the books. I am done. I'd like to give that as quickly as possible. So folks, have a great day. Check out both of my videos that I've got.