 It's been a week since the shocking incidents in Brasilia, the capital of Brazil, where thousands of Jair Bolsonaro supporters attacked federal buildings, including the office of the president, the House of Congress, the Supreme Court. They vandalized artworks, destroyed public properties. There were officials inside. Many people have called this a coup attempt, an attempt to sort of push back against the Lula government, which was legitimately elected in elections recently. We'll be talking about this incident and its implications in this episode of Mapping Portlines. We have with us Praveer Prakas. Praveer, we've been talking about Brazil in the past quite a few times, actually. And one of the things we talked about is the fact that there's Jair Bolsonaro lost the election, but he did retain a strong support base, a support base of extremists, fundamentalists, who would do anything to keep Lula from coming back to power. Now, Lula did come back to power. He did take office. But what we saw was this incident last week when there was an attempt at storming. So there are two questions there, I think. And the first thing is the fact that this actually happened, despite the fact that it was a capital city, despite the fact that at least there is supposed to be security. So first of all, could you take us through what are the implications of this event? Well, very clearly it was a coup attempt which fell flat. It did not have any resonance in the country. Even Bolsonaro's supporters did not come out in large numbers, as might have been expected onto the streets of major cities. So given that it was, if at all, not only a dam squib, but actually something which had strengthened Lula and weakened Bolsonaro. So that is at one level what we can think of as a conclusions of what has happened. Was it backed by the United States? Because that's the other big player in Brazil itself. Appears not if they had succeeded, if they had been able to push back. Maybe there could have been a Guaido-like attempt. But clearly the United States was willing to take a hands-off position to see what emerges and clearly when it fell flat, then they did not throw in their support behind Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro right now is Florida. So is the ex-Justice Minister who took over the security of Brasilia in only, I think only the beginning of the year. So he was not the person looking after the security earlier. So just before change of power that he took, shall we say, charge of Brasilia. So the question remains, why did the governor of the province allow him to take charge of the district, which is a very sensitive seat of power of Brazil in fact, and of course not only of power, but also of the Justice Supreme Court, so on. Why did this change therefore take place and why what was the governor doing in making him the head of this district, particularly he was his next Justice Minister. So it does seem to be rather small thing for him to take charge of. So was there a conspiracy therefore becomes a question, but I think the bigger issue is that it has delegitimized this whole attempt and strengthened Lula. We must also understand the nature of Brasilia. It is not a city which has grown organically unlike say the other bigger cities of Brazil, unlike São Paulo or Rio de Janeiro. But if we take that into account, Brasilia is an artificial city which has been created just to be the center of political power. It was a new capital which was created and its only function is to be the federal capital. That is why all the institutions that you talked about are there, but there is no industry around. There is no other reasons why people are there except because the federal government is there. So in that sense it does not have an identity in terms of its itself. That means it is organically long history behind it, people settlements. So therefore there is nobody who is going to come in large numbers either on this side or that side because that happens in other large cities. So this is the other issue that we didn't see any sympathy from any other city to this effort. It was an isolated event and therefore it seemed to have plot because it did not spark of any other response in the rest of the country. Bolsonaro is now outside whether he will be implicated in this or not is a different question, but certainly as a head of the security the ex-Justice Minister is going to be somebody who is in the eye of the storm and it has been this, his issue has been raised questions of his coming back extradition if not are being talked about. But there is no question of the large scale collusion of the police and those who are supposed to guard the central buildings. Really the power centers, political, judicial, other power centers in Brazil that there was no attempt by the police to safeguard them. And to anybody who's gone to Brazil it's a fantastic architecture, it's really brilliant modern architecture by somebody who's pioneered this kind of building people's architecture giving it a certain kind of orientation and who was exiled during military rule. So he was in fact exiled to France during military rule and this is something therefore I think Oscar Neymar whose works are considered as its heritage sites. So this kind of vandalism is something which speaks very speaks clearly what kind of forces are arrayed against this against what is the political processes which are going on in Brazil today, but let's not forget they have some roots in society clearly. Absolutely that's a good point Praveer because it's probably maybe a few thousands who were there at the site but this is a sentiment that was probably shared very largely in many sections of society. But also because Bolsonaro throughout his campaign throughout his four years has actually indulged in this kind of a politics of polarization making Lula and his supporters appear like criminals making them like communists, people who want to destroy society, people with whom Brazil is unsafe and it is that sentiment that has been sort of bubbling because of these kind of campaigns. So also quite a few challenges for Lula ahead in terms of how to take things forward because while like you said this has become a moment of unity we have governors from all across Brazil coming in solidarity but nonetheless as time passes it is nonetheless going to be a challenge to actually take these sections along as well. Well it was going to be challenging the way I think this particular action of the Bolsonaro supporters has made Lula's task for the next one or two years easier because the really the fallout of this will be that nobody would like immediately to side with forces trying to pull Lula down. So I think that way this is this will this really helped Lula and Han Bolsonaro and his supporters. So I think that is one part of it. The second part of it will it put Lula on the back foot internally that is to focus much more on Brazil itself and therefore deny him the role that we expect him to play which is look at for instance alternate economic structures. How do we continue trade without the overarching architecture of WTO because the United States has really collapsed WTO. There is not even a tribunal which is a which when all this matters are disputed then there is an appeal which goes up that body the appellate body has been sabotaged by United States they have not nominated people on that body and without that it cannot proceed. So WTO at the moment structure exists but it is because people are still following it not because the structure is at its teeth. So that is one then we have of course the much bigger issue financial sanctions the role of the dollar and using weaponizing dollar and what is it countries can do in order not to be therefore held hostage because of their dollar contracts to United States politically. So those issues we were expecting Lula to play a bigger role because it's not therefore just China, Shanghai cooperation, it is also India, China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa. So you get the big continental players also on board. Though South Africa is a bit of an outlier in Africa they're not really taken in the sense that they represent Africa but that we won't get into today but looking at that and Brazil is centre of Latin American politics let's make no mistake about that. India is perhaps not at the centre but at least a major important player in Asia just as China. So taken India and China together yes there is a lot of heft of Asia behind this so Lula if he is not able to play a role in BRICS then it might be more difficult because India and China have tensions between themselves Russia and India have some equation as we saw in the oil deals that are taking place but the role that Lula would have been much more successful in is if it can get the major continental players on board and therefore try a process particularly on financial architecture which allows at least bypassing the dollar if necessary with other currency agreements and of course there is also the one which the IMF etc talked about but nobody has really too much belief on those non-dollar payment currencies because the fear that those things could also be under the US hold because it's overwhelming power that it wields both in the IMF and in the World Bank. So given that will multiple currencies take shape would be a very important issue as well as in the for instance NATO, Russia, Ukraine war would Lula be able to play a role for peacemaking. Those are the kind of questions where I think his role will be more limited and he'll be much more restricted to Latin America which maybe is something which the United States would like to happen but at the same time would not be seen to support because if they do that then the Latin American part also goes. Of course maybe in this context also useful to think of Peru where we see another right-wing pushback we know that President Pedro Castillo has been overthrown massive protests going on close to 50 people have been killed and I think this throws a larger question in terms of some of these right-wing attempts that are taking place. We do know that there is now we are in the era of what has been a pushback against the right in general over the past two three years we have seen elections in many countries. Progressive governments coming to power not left-wing but definitely progressive or like you have said once they are not pro-american at least but also pushbacks taking place against many of these governments Peru like I said being an example. So when we look at the continent in general how do we sort of analyze these two trends one of a general push against some of these neoliberal and US-led processes but also very strong right-wing reaction. Well let's put it take let's take a step back and look at this in a larger context. Yes there are pushbacks but the point is the pushbacks are not taken to military coups any longer they're taking place through the judiciary through the legal system trying to put alternate centers of power fighting in the elections using social media big media to combat the left or progressive forces in Latin America. So the nature of fight has changed I think that's important 80s well a direct phone call and then you have the American motion play to overthrow elected government and put a military dictatorship in place. So instead of overt intervention which was when the this whole region was really Pax Americana that you now have instead of overt action you now have covert action you have what we have discussed as lawfare and more importantly that even the lawfare has a term okay it goes for two years three years like Lula five years then it tends to fail. So the larger legitimacy if you look at that then the political or the popular pressures for legitimacy now are trumping the kind of covert action which the United States has been unleashing which earlier was coups now is various legal action of different kinds and also electoral coups of different in different ways. So I think that is a positive in this case of Pedro Castilla they could dismiss him but the government which has come in place has is finding it very difficult to continue its legitimacy is very much being challenged and therefore for all practical purposes it's not recognized as legitimate the fact that it has to really indulge in this kind of slaughter. Peru is a very small country four million people so 47 is a very large number compared to that it also shows that if you don't have legitimacy what you have there. So I think for even the right or those who have displaced Pedro Castillo because he not all of them are rightists let's face it it's one of the persons in his government which is also leading this particular formation at the moment I think it is it's really it would help Peru much more if they did want the people are asking go for elections. So immediately all this would stop all they have to say three months four months five months we'll face an election and therefore give us the time to put everything in order and hold elections I think that's the only really democratic way to go and the fact that this is not being done shows the shall we say the lack of good faith in why they have displaced Castillo over its own Castillo and the forces behind it which may appear to be the judiciary it is not it is really a larger political compact which is hidden who are funding it who are supporting it I think we are pretty clear that it will be the United States but I think this part of it makes sense that unless they get people's legitimacy this is going to continue and the people have shown that this government does not have hold people's popular legitimacy I think that's very clear absolutely thank you so much for being so there we have it continent which is going through a lot of crisis probably going to become one of the most important fault lines in the coming years is progressive forces on the one hand and right wing forces on the other contest and try to sort of establish supremacy we'll be covering many of these aspects and issues in future episodes of mapping potlines until then keep watching news click