 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a good weekend. Hope everybody had a great first week of 2024. We'll get to that in a second. If you are brand new to the channel, thank you very much for tuning in, spending a couple of minutes with us. If you like the content, all we ask guys at the start of every video, just like, take a second to like the video, share, share, comment, all that good stuff. And that's all we ask for. And of all you guys, we'll continue to get pretty good value on a day to day basis. Before we go on to this video, Kenyan posted a video Friday afternoon. I don't know if a lot of you guys saw it. It's a video literally right before this one. If you go into our channel, we did a summer series of different topics throughout a trader's journey, throughout a trader's development. This past Friday Kenyan posted a video on the psychological aspects of sizing up and sizing down. It's a very, very big, great area. Unfortunately, a lot of new traders, they don't pay attention to and they believe that their first role in this market is to try to make as much money as fast as possible. They realize that your account size and your experience level and your decision making is based on the emotional ability to handle your tier size. And so we did a video. This is, no, this is in the summertime. We have a whole series of videos that we did different topics. So after you check out this video, if you haven't done so already, it's about an hour. It's about an hour long discussion, but it's really, it's pretty good. And it really should help a lot of you guys, especially new guys to kind of start, you know, really thinking about your position sizing. I give you guys a little bit of kind of tips to kind of get through those mental hurdles. So that's it. So hopefully you'll like that as well. So let's talk about this past week. Obviously, 2023 was an absolute stellar year for the market, especially technology stocks. 54% on the Q's is pretty damn good, right? We talked about different areas of support that the bulls needed to hold off before things got a little bit dicey. And if you've been watching this video just in the last, you know, just in the last two weeks, you know, you don't have to go back to even more than that. We discussed very, very specific levels that if you guys wrote down, you could have really, you know, not only taken advantage of, but really position yourself properly for what to happen next. And we started the year on this $400 level, which was the rising 20-day support on the QQQ's. We talked about the importance of the rising 20-day. As you can see here, every single time since, you know, just going back a little while, every single time the NASDAQ hit the 20-day moving average, it bounces, right? Hit the 20-day bounce, bounce, bounce. And it bounced on January the 2nd, which was the first day back to the new year. And then the next day, it took it out. And the point was once we started building below that 400 level, and we started taking down that 400 level, and once was support and now is resistance or supply and demand, which I like to call, it was a sell signal, right? It was a sell signal. And I still believe when you go back to three, four videos, I still believe the longer we stay below that 400 level, there's a high probability that we probably will see this 390 on next support zone or next demand zone for where the bulls should then have another point of reference. And it's very, very important. The key for last week, and if you look at the numbers, you know, they're not going to stand out a lot. And let me tell you why in a second. If you look at the first week's tallies, the Dow Jones was down 6-tenths of a percent. The SPX was down 1.5 percent and the NASDAQ composite was down 3.3 percent. It's a pretty big loss for the week, but again, 54 percent the previous year. That's why I kept on reiterating the point, even if we have a back test. You know, don't jump off the cliff. Don't start talking about the sky is falling. We're going to crash. It's just as of right now, this entire formation is still way, way in the bullish cycle. We're just getting an interval where we could take advantage of the downside. Another thing we talked about last week, once we started building below the 20-day moving average, is how many names in the technology sector were going to test their 50-day moving average. And that's the theme kind of going into Monday session or Tuesday session. The one takeaway we have to look at what we've seen this week. We did attempt the rally on Friday and everything will get to the pivots in a second. It was a really great morning, right? Tech names went really nuts. The problem was the morning was over and the queues got rejected on the previous day's channel and they just sold off. You look at the 60-minute view, right? They had a big, big run in morning and again, this is kind of what I'm talking about. Understanding where your supply and demand zones are, right? The queues hit, the supply is on perfectly and literally faded about two and a half points. So again, guys, it's super important. I know a lot of new traders, you know, they'll look at all these lines and go, oh, they're so relevant. But again, if your eyes don't lie and you can see where stocks get rejected, you'll really understand why all these lines make so much sense. You see a rejection of supply, rejection of supply, rejection of supply, rejection of supply. So if you're trading blind and you don't understand these areas at point of reference, of course you're going to get caught off guard. Of course, you're going to get the rug pull under you because you're buying stock into supply. Emotional buyers are meeting technical sellers and vice versa. So when you go look at what's happening potentially this week and this is why it's so important. This is why the queues potentially have another, you know, five and a half, six points down. You start looking the mega cap names that we talked about last week how a lot of names we're going to start testing their 50-day moving average. That's exactly what happened, right? If you look at Amazon, Amazon this week tested perfectly the 50-day moving average Tesla, which we had a great bounce on Tesla on Friday off to 50-day. But the point is Tesla tested its 50-day Microsoft, right? Look what happened, tested its 50-day. So if these stocks start losing the 50-day moving average, it's going to be a problem, right? Now we have a clear bias. We have a clear point of reference going into Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday session that if Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, there's a bunch of other names. Those three represent the 10 names that I trade. If they start losing the 50-day moving average, you know, that's going to be a problem with them. It's going to start a more aggressive of a sell signal. And if you are long these stocks, at least for the short term, again, I don't know what's going to happen down the line. But at least for the short term, if they start losing, especially close below the 50-day moving average, there is going to be a two, three, four, potentially a week, week and a half worth of selling. Again, are they going to go straight down? Absolutely not. But the point is supply is a very, very important area. Once support gets lost, that support becomes supply. And you can see here by the cues, right, we're below the 20-day moving average for four consecutive days, three consecutive days. And guess what? They just can't get above supply. And that's the most important part. And this is why we're going to continue to drift lower until the bulls reclaim back that 400 level. And that's a very, very important point. A lot of times you're not going to see or be affected of what's going on here, just because people are still buying dips. And they have every right to be buying dips. Because again, if you look at the whole formation of the NASDAQ 100, this is still super duper bullish. Again, where this thing becomes bearish, or at least the Celsius, and I don't want to use the word bearish, where the buyers, when you'll start to see a buyer strike once you start losing the 50-day, just like all those on the individual stocks I just mentioned. So as long as the cues close above 387, which again, we're still 10 points above. This is just a preliminary conversation to kind of get your brain focus in case it happens. But any close below the 50-day moving average, just like with Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon, if that happens with the NASDAQ 100, it will drag everything back. But again, let's take it one day at a time, one trade at a time as well. Data, jobs data came out this week, more notes from the Fed. They kind of reiterated what they talked about in the last FOMC session with their minutes. There's still a very cloak and dagger about a potential rate cut where they're actually going to have it. There's a lot of speculation. There's a lot of innuendos. But there's not really concentrated dates that, hey, March is going to be the first FOMC that we're going to do it. It's not like that. It's a lot of speculation. This is why we're still seeing a lot of up and down, up and down in the market. But the formation, the general formation as we enter Monday is below. We're going to start Monday, the fourth day below the 20-day moving average. And again, if you believe in the theory of supply and supply and demand to the man, and that's what the whole PS60 theory is, then the next soft landing, the same way the first soft landing was when we lost the 10-day, was the 20. Well, the next soft landing is roughly this 390 area on the QQQ. So let's talk about a Friday session. The market gapped down after, I believe, I think it was the jobs data. And they started rallying. And the bulls actually gave an absolutely phenomenal job. Featured Friday session, you know how incredibly aggressive the majority of the mega-cap technology names were. And they really went crazy. They really did. But once the NASDAQ then got rejected on lower highs on the 20-day supply once again, and failed to reclaim the previous day's channel, everything got pulled. And this is why we're, again, marching to the downside going into Monday's session for the majority of names. Not everything, but the majority names. So let's talk about, you know, pretty much, you know, very, very aggressive session. Congratulations guys for what you guys traded on Friday. On NVIDIA 485 needs to build. On NVIDIA got a price target upgrade. On NVIDIA got a price, I forgot who it was, but somebody gave it a $690 price target. As you can see here, it took out the 485. That was the pivot here, as you can see, right? 485 needs to build. So it took out this 485 and just went absolutely crazy. About $10 candle into this 95 supply. Obviously the key level of NVIDIA, assuming the market doesn't, you know, doesn't go lower, is still going to be above this channel here, above this December channel. If it could get above this December channel, eventually it has to start testing its last year's highs. We'll see. You know, we'll see if it gets stronger. But boy, oh boy, incredible move on NVIDIA from that 485 level peloton, right? Not a name, not a name we focus on, but this had a really nice looking channel. And it did what it had to do. It had a really, really nice move. $668 needs to build. Here was a peloton, right? So it took out the $668 level, which was the high from December 14th. And again, this is where we talk about understanding these silly little lines, right? If you don't know that silly little line, well, it got stopped exactly where it was supposed to right into supply, but beautiful move from $668 into the 720s, pretty much on one straight line. You can see it pretty much on one straight line here. So congratulations for you guys who caught that as well. Amazon, again, continues to be, support never got there. But guys, watch Amazon. You know, it's one of the three names we talked about. If this thing starts losing support, it's going to get hit. AMD, $13770 needs to build. I also believe they got upgraded price target as well. So it took out the $17770. Again, look where it stopped. The next supply, emotional buyers came in and technical sellers won. But boy, oh boy, look at this move. $13770 all the way up to $141 before it got rejected into the 10-day supply. Gorgeous move there as well. QS never got there. And the last one was Meta. Meta, $4820 needs to build. Meta went absolutely nuts. So Meta took out this whole 4820, the whole channel and traded all the way up to $5350. Again, if the market holds up fairly well and starts confirming Friday's channel, Meta and Nvidia are clean. They're clean. A lot of the other names are getting close to their 50-day support. But Meta and Nvidia are pretty clean if they can start confirming Friday's channel as well. So we have a very unique situation right now that a lot of the mega cap names are kind of trending down to the 50-day moving average and going to be a big line in the sand. And then you have several that look like they're actually trying to bust out. Meta, AMD and Nvidia. So it's going to be very, very interesting to see if the bulls can pull up those stocks that are close to the 50 or can those names that are trending down are going to start dragging everything down. So it's going to be a very, very interesting start to the week. But the most important part when we say all the time, we're going to be ready for both sides. I don't care which side confirms the point is have measured potential ready on the long side, have measured potential ready on the short side and you don't have to guess. Just see which side confirms first. Guys, God bless. Have a great remainder of your Sunday and I'll see you all in the field tomorrow. Take care.