 Hello, this is Tom Pazzutti with Trading with Mark and for today's the 13th Thought we would take a look revisit crude It's been a little while since we've looked at that and it's been playing out really well one's pretty much my favorite chart at the moment and Next gold which has been interesting and probably my most controversial Forecast but nonetheless one that I'm sticking to so let's move on here Starting with crude oil on a weekly chart. Let's get the laser pointer out And we've been looking for this move down from A few basically a month a little over a month ago two months ago, maybe To form a five-wave form And that has been working out. I at first I have to say that I was thinking that this might turn into a An ending diagonal pattern, which would be a little bit different. So I was kind of concerned that this low let's say A month ago might be the low that would form a A bigger retrace up But that turned out to have to be the case is this is taking a A conventional five-wave pattern for an impulse, which is fine. So that means that we're going to have a Five waves down for a wave one of something that will be again a conventional impulse How low this will go? Yet to be determined I've kind of drawn this in as maybe the wave one might be the longest wave That's I have to admit will be unusual usually wave one It tends to be One of the shorter waves wave three being the longest. We may end up getting some equality after this bounce. So we get a settle low here in the In the relatively near term either in the next couple days maybe tomorrow Maybe today on wednesday On the eia number Not sure, but soon I think get a bounce and then we'll see how deep this next leg becomes It would be Typical for that leg to be Maybe equal to the first leg. So that might take it a little bit deeper than what I have it drawn here maybe down to um the 53 number Guess I'm kind of a bounce from that and then a another low to again to complete a five-wave sequence for a 3 3 5 big correction from this last high Back here in 2022 And that would probably be a major low in crude higher low from the all-time, you know Low from several years ago that you know actually took the futures down into negative numbers, but You know, we don't need to go there for now. But anyway This should be a Should be working on a pretty major low. I'm not expecting it to be Very deep But um, you know, again time will tell I'm kind of looking at this prior fourth as a as an interesting level Maybe just under that in kind of the 39 handle You could make the case that You know, this turns into being a very uh A much deeper wave to will address that when we get there, you know ask me and Uh a couple months. I'm sure we'll talk about it by then And we'll see how this is how this is playing out. But for right now I think this move this initial move is in its last leg. So it's in a start expecting some kind of bounce Let's move on to a daily chart Um On the daily chart, it's a little easier to see how i'm counting this down as um five waves So one two One two three four five for a wave three I'm a three wave bounce to a wave four, which is pretty much tested the top Maybe a little tiny little bit of of overlap here intraday with the low of wave one. I think that is fine Um, then a strong move down from that and I think this is one two three four And it's a five and we're at the first Target of using wave one to wave five relationships right now Yes, there's always deeper targets, but uh, You know, I think we should start paying attention right now and looking for A wave two bounce moving on to the intraday chart We can see how we can zoom in A couple things to notice here is that I could we can make out a Potential five waves down from this last bounce for a correction. That would be a wave four Um from the fire chart so wave one two one two three four five four three and then a three wave bounce for four And then something that's you know, I'm going to say that's pretty difficult to count. Um In this time frame, but it's a move down We're at first supports At 68 30 Worth watching maybe 67 50 underneath that We are already starting to see a little bit of positive divergence here in the cci Less market, but also in just a regular momentum indicator here But nonetheless This should be in the last Last few You know very very close to Setting love the very very first confirmation of a reversal up would be Cl breaking up above 60 to 69 20 so Watch that in the next Certainly today after the eia number and if not today then tomorrow I think again, we're in a Near-term Kind of a reversal situation here. So keep an eye on that. All right. Let's move on to gold. I'm gonna get moving here Gold this is like I mentioned early. This is my most controversial forecast I think everybody was been expecting and you know with some reason. I'm not going to say that there hasn't been you know, the geopolitical situation has certainly been scary over the last couple years and whether that is um, and you know, we had the COVID Kind of scare that kind of shut everything down and made it look like things were going to get pretty scary um, we've also had um Some scares um in the geopolitical arena with You know breakout of wars and such and so Definitely, there's been some reason for people to Move to have a kind of a flight to safety and to Buy up gold, but I think really this is all too early It goes back to the very large pattern that I think this was a b wave high And that we need to get a c wave move down from it Now the problem is is that gold has been it's a pretty ugly pattern really it's not as clear as what it could be um I'm basing part of this analysis on you know, these uh, this uh continuation chart in the futures But you can you know people that look at um a um a spot gold chart would see that well, what about you know, moving up to new highs or Maybe looking at a gld chart Um, the gold ETF has a little bit different pattern not as clean as not as clean as this To me this looks like um A ending diagonal Um again, not the prettiest ending diagonal but an ending diagonal nonetheless and was looking for a um reversal down from This retest or what i'm pulling a b wave high an a wave down A little tiny mounts a b wave low three waves down from that and then a five wave move up from that to set b and that seems to be working out in that there's been a A very marked rejection a very quick rejection of this 21 49 50 resistance up here um a swift drop And then that's actually continuing but again somewhat like crude. I think this first wave down is um About over width and you could say that well g this pattern is somewhat similar to what you're looking in in in crude oil and You know crude and gold actually do have um a pretty high correlation with each other. So Not surprising to see them kind of moving together here in that work that in both products i'm looking for a You know low sometime. I don't know late first Probably more like set sometime in the second quarter of next year We'll be looking for um Lows in both of those Uh Products and uh, you know commodities in general might put in a rally in the kind of the second half of next year So again moving on We take a look here um on the daily chart It's think if I find it interesting that we've broken down through the daily moving averages And I think that is um Indicative of being late in the first wave down I would expect a wave two to pop up and retest that break. So retest the Moving averages from underneath And then have another impulse down. Um Pretty much the first part of next year and That should be pretty dramatic and I want I want this to feel like I wanted to have a feel of the bears Finally giving up and having some capitulation and so once we get into You know march april may of next year. I want the bears. I want the gold bugs to Really kind of throw throwing their hands up in the air and given up and wondering Will will gold ever have it today and it will um, I am in the in the big picture I think gold is going to be fine But over the next say six months Can be soft All right. Let's next cycle inflection here is on the 15th Though I think we're getting close enough to that now that I would say that we're in a cycle window that um, the low could happen and you know, pretty much any time here And dropping down the intraday chart Kind of the kind of zoom in to kind of see a similar kind of pattern. So a one two three Four and then out off of this four looks like we have a one two Um, sort of an extended third Um a pop up and a fourth and a fifth The making some measurements of wave two down to wave three Looking for five to be sort of equivalent or have some kind of uh relationship to the Third wave itself we get some targets of 1980 50 and 1983 60. So we'll watch those today if if we do get um another um spike down Then take a look at 1969 90, but I you know, I wouldn't guarantee that we get this deep Uh, I definitely think it should be should be watched now for again some kind of reversal Which makes sense because we also not only For uh, for the case of crude, we have the EIA EIA number at 10 30 But um, we also have the FOMC today. And so obviously That will have a lot of impact on both um the Interest rates and on currencies and gold is sort of you know, kind of a proxy currency So definitely should take a look at uh gold. Um after the FOMC statement at 1400 or 202 p.m. Eastern and also keep in mind that a lot of the move Sometimes happens during the Press conference and the press conference starts at um 230 or 1430. So Couldn't get a couple moves in the afternoon So definitely watch for volatility Um this afternoon And I think that will wrap it up So hope everybody's having a good trading week. It's going to be an interesting day. Hope everybody's rested up and ready to go Um, uh, this is probably going to be the I'd say the most active like week Between um now and next couple days and then after that, I think things start to start to wind down Um for the holiday season and into new years So I don't I would expect that we have you know, some pretty interesting moves over the next couple days and then things start to Start to mellow out and the trading get to be a little bit more difficult next week and certainly After that. So anyway till next time