 Hello and welcome to the CMC markets Monday market webinar with myself market analyst David Madden today's date is Monday the 20th of November and the time is 1215 1215 p.m. London time GMT As always with our webinar before we actually proceed Obviously these these risk warnings here on screen for yourself to have a quick read through it's very straightforward It essentially states anything that is covered in this webinar is merely just my my own comments on my views as a general observations It should not be construed as explicit trading and or investment advice If you just have a quick read through those and the other slides that I leave on screen We can then proceed with the actual webinar itself As always with the killer rundown for webinar at the very beginning the webinar I'll talk about the major moves in the financial markets and news headlines in the past few days They'll also take a quick look at the week ahead What are the economic indicators for the corporate stories that are likely to be the big big flares this week? And then afterwards the majority the webinar Will be myself covering the main markets major indices major major commodities major currents and major currency pairs and discussing Potential levels to keep an eye out for and as always if you do have any markets But you all like me to cover feel free to enter into the chat box here markets that you want me to have a look at Now they've gotten the compliance section out of the way. Let's just take a look how things are going In the financial markets. So even though we got off to a fairly negative start In the continent we were expecting the German market to open about 70 points lower But we've actually now managed you could turn that around in the backs as you could as you can see here Things that are looking quite negative are say around 6 6 a.m. 7 a.m. This morning Take a look at the chart here and just give it see how I see how much things have actually turned around the last few hours So very early on the morning We could see here that we're calling the tax quite a bit lower quite below the lows of Friday but as you can see we've managed to do quite well as a trading day Has gone on essentially the big news out of the other well all of Europe over the weekend was that the coalition talks in Germany between the get at the largest party Angela Merkel's Christian democratic Union amongst other parties were looking to get a coalition together and one of the kind of smaller parties the that the free Democratic Party Had to walk away from the talks They felt that the the negotiations were going the way and it looks like the coalition talks have now broken down This is all just sent a lot of kind of shockwave to the kind of German and also European political political stories just because Germany is the largest economy in in the Europe in the in the Eurozone and also in the EU David have quite a quite a Substantial influence with it within both institutions and what while that country doesn't have a function government things about work things about worrying on top of that now that looks like Germany is that maybe actually look to form other Possibilities of some sort of coalition have a minority government or worst-case scenario look to have an actually another general election Another federal election and this of course obviously prompted equity markers to Pregative the general market to kind of start like quite negative, but I tried as I got new to that We have seen in the market that we gained some of the losses And are you made all the big news of the weekend is the talk that Theresa May is actually happy to pay a higher amount for the so-called divorce bill for brexit Pre in previous discussions the EU work of something about 60 billion euros Theresa May was going to pay up to about 20 million pounds There's quite a large discrepancy between the two now would appear That Theresa May is at least happier to kind of meet somewhere in the middle or at least pay a higher amount And in the back of that That also given kind of renewed confidence to the UK's ability in relation to a pension brexit deal And also what we've seen is as a consequence of that is a higher British pounds of the pounds up against the Well across the board, but but More popular markets we trade here as CBC markets would be the pound versus US dollar and the euro versus the British pounds at the Euro is lower versus pound and the pound is higher versus the US dollar Take a look now at our week ahead Uh, if you go to our if you go to our website and under newton analysis And then from there if you then click on newton analysis It will automatically bring you to this section here if you filter by section Third one down weekly outlook. We can see why the major corporate and economic news events of the week So taking a look now at the potential potential numbers, uh, in terms of what's what's going on Tomorrow we've an update from easyjet the airline as a as figure is coming out tomorrow on Wednesday, we've an update from Thomas cook bear in mind Thomas cook. We're actually updated today to get a positive upgrade On terms of their broker ratings We fed minutes on wednesday night keep an eye on that actually any currency pairs If we're trading gold or for trading any of the usn disease, but it's looking fairly likely at the federal reserve Are going to be hiking rates next month Uh, I think the now focus is going to be on what the federal reserve do in 2018 So the update uh minutes will give us an update on their thoughts from the from the previous meeting Take a look now in terms of Some economic indicators. We have the flash PMIs coming out of france and germany on thursday Which will be covering in our economic calendar shortly In terms of the corporate reporting calendar, as I mentioned, we've easyjet coming The numbers come out tomorrow. We also have big yellow group of half numbers out Bad luck international happier happier numbers out as well Scrolling down to the rest of uh of tuesday We also have dollar tree in the united states I'll follow your Numbers out as the hula packard enterprises All the papa starts to keep an eye out for on wednesday Piffa John Deere and co and also tovis cook the Travel crowd on thursday keep an eye out for mother care figures out and also as do seven trend and power and paragon banking group And on friday is a fairly quiet day in terms of the uh In terms of the corporate reporting As I mentioned, uh, in our beginning in terms of looking ahead to the week We have an economic calendar here in our trading platform So if you're on our trading platform and you click on the market post tab fourth option down You can see the economic calendar. That's widening it out It gives you uh off the date as soon as the economic announcement is uh is revealed Again, the details will be in the actual box It also has a forecasted estimate of the kind of consensus of what analysts are predicting and also give you a breakdown Of the previous number so you can see whether something a market is expanding or contracting Or whether it is growing at a fast rate or a growing of a slow rate Uh, terms of economic indicators tomorrow, uh, we're looking at looking ahead here with data We've uh net public sector borrowing from the uk existing host home sales from the united states On wednesday, uh, turning our attention. We have the eurozone consumer confidence numbers out at three o'clock in the day We have durable goods from the united states at half one And we also have the oil inventory figures coming out at half three out of the every single wednesday Bearing in mind if we do have the update from the federal reserve meds at seven p.m. London time, uk time Friday morning, uh, we we uh, we have the third sorry thursday morning rather We have the pretty fmp my numbers out services and manufacturing numbers from the likes of france and germany And it's scanning over to friday taking a look at friday. We have the german ifo business sentiment indicator And also we've we've the pmi numbers out in japan or earlier that night So taking a look now at the uh, the major markets. We'll have to start off now with the footsie 100 We have a quick scroll down see what the footsie 100 is doing So first of all, we can we can see that that the large sell-off that began in november is still Very much in place on the footsie 100. So I will be keeping eye on this It is a bit of a concern that the footsie 100 is south of its 200 day moving average That I seen is a decent barometer for north of it The markets outlook is usually positive and if you're south of it, the markets outlook is usually negative So we've managed to find a fair bit of decent support in around this region here in around the 7350 area so while so That it appears to be kind of holding up for now So the downward trend is in place supports coming into place in around 7350 And the pot if you look down here at the max the histogram the max the indicator You'll see that negative momentum is quite high. Uh, so if you're too bad, you should break south of this area here 7350 we could see is back down towards 7300 itself or maybe even one of the late september low of 7233 Should be moved north. Should we should we head back up north of the of the purity moving average which comes into play in around 7400 the next level potentially keep an eye on for Well, it's a the low from the It's the low from early november, but it's also coincides with the fifth a day moving average This twice area here in at 7400 and 43. So these are areas to keep an eye on for should be actually push higher on the footsie 100 Looking now at the germark at the banks. So obviously I caught a quite a severe sell-off Since well largely since november As you can see here negative momentum is still quite high You've seen a small bit of cooling a negative momentum, but by and large it is still quite high The downward trend the negative trend is still in place Should we take out the november low at 12847 that could bring us back down towards this area here Of 12705 and if we go south of that again, we could be heading back down towards 12600 So you'll have consolidation in around this area here and 12600 coincides with the 100 day moving average. So If we do manage to kind of push higher on the The germany 30 on the tax the first level to keep an eye on for to the upside could be this area here in Around the 13100 region That area was sort of Yeah, a rough rough area of the highs from out from the in the middle of last week I think kind of the bounce back before they could have the additional move lower But if you do tap into take out 13100 the next position I have to keep an eye on for could be the the lower end of this gap here that was created in Very beginning of november And that price comes into play at 13,000 316 It is looking quite negative on the jury 30. So it may be Some traders may look to actually hold off until see what the kind of the next movie is whether we were to head south We continue the southbound movement or whether we actually managed to kind of fully shake off the negative move And I should retake this area here north of 13,000 316 It's been relatively quiet in in spain recently, but I'll have a look at the the ibex again The ibex has been in its downward channel the same downward channel that has been in largely since may We obviously had quite a decent kind of push out of it here In late october or november, but no one saw very quickly It got caught up with the kind of worldwide Sell-off in global equities and it's back firmly in the kind of the downward trend that it's been in So while the While the the spanish spain 35 the ibex 35 remains south of its 50 day moving average Which comes to play just shy 10,250 the outlook could remain negative for the spanish market And if you do move move further south areas that potentially keep an eye out for Will be the well both the october and november low which come into play in around Well, it wasn't was actually quite to november low, but it certainly was the october low at 9866 we got down quite near there only last week. We get down as low as 9875 So we were in quite close We're doing about nine points away of it, but I think we didn't quite get there So that's a bit it's very to keep an eye out for the downside on the spain 35 south of that We could be heading back down towards this area here. So a bit of where we saw The high from february, which come into play in around 9637 But if you manage to do she can snap out of this downward trend a magic and break above the fifth day moving average We could be heading back up towards this area here in around 10,500 or even the november high Of 10th of just north of 10,600 The u.s. Markets are looking in a bit better shape Mind you they weren't in a far better shape Before we actually went into this uh sell-off in the first place So this was the all-time high here. We traded a bit lower We saw a steady increase in the negative negative momentum on the mac t instagram That that negative momentum is still very much there. So we haven't seen any the setting pressure decline as of yet We do appear to be sort of range around our sideways trading So if we do take if we do break below this area here So one of the lows from late october at 23,250 if you break south of that we could be heading back down towards 23,000 or even back down to the fifth day moving average Just shy of that at 22,960 But if you manage to kind of maintain this floor here, we could be head back up towards 10 23,500 and if you take all that level We could be letting back up towards the all-time high at 23,625 and beyond that we'd be looking towards 23,700 800 and so on and so forth The s and p 500 is not too dissimilar Came off the all-time highs traded lower But as manage to recoup a fair bit of a similar similar vein here The all-time high was created here the markets are to push lower The rate at which setting of pressure started to ramp up here on the mac de instagram negative momentum was increasing And now we've managed to become a sort of locked within a bit of a range between 2590 to the north and to the south 2556 so we could be looking So one So it could be like the trade within this range for a for a while the way she's going to break either direction of it Uh, I'll break to the downside could set us back to the to the October to the mid-october lows Which is which which acts as support on a couple of occasions here at 25,554 or south of that Down as down as low as 2531 from the early one of the early october lows previously acted as support Well, should you manage to snap up break north if you manage to break north? This level here at 2,590 we could be heading back up towards 2,600 and then north of that towards 2,610 20 so on and so forth because that's fate The wider upward trend is still quite strong We just could be looking a bit of a sideways trading or a bit of a correction as opposed to the year's end Gold has been a fairly dull market for the last few weeks. We've managed to get some Interesting move out of it So the broad picture for 2017 Uh, this would be the lows this would be the lows of january here the broad picture for gold has been to the upside And if you look here, could I zoom in a bit more? We can see the this line here that in one or two we have the average the yellow line Is now at 1280 the large you hovering in around that price action Maybe say $10 below $10 north of it For the last few weeks, but recently we find the amount to actually push a bit higher of gold It's made a fairly decent break north of it. It traded us high last friday Up to 12 90 nearly nearly as high as 12 97 didn't quite get there That created a a one month high for gold As you can see here that was confirmed by the pickup in the macD indicator We saw on the macD astrograph here We can see positive momentum as a as pushed higher So the momentum is with the buyers to mark this push higher so it's confirmed the move We've seen a bit of a pullback But it's really surprising seeing as that is a fairly decent move for gold that we saw on friday Especially considering how How such tight ranges we've had recently So this could potentially be the beginning of a push higher of gold hot spurring it off We've seen uncertainty in global equity markets So it's not really surprised we're seeing a bit of risk on risk off attitude rather The life to quality impact Money coming out of stocks going into traditional safer assets such as gold So if we manage to continue on with this Polish on the gold we could be looking back and forth the october high of 1306 And then north of that towards 13 1316 and then beyond that up towards 13 and 34 And I think it moves lower in gold Could find support in around the 100 a moves putting average at 1280 Notice how it acted support on friday and for a lot of for a lot of the month of november The market was trading within say seven or eight or ten dollars north or south of it So if we do happen to go south of 1280 the next potential potential area of support for gold could be this this level here in at 1270 Crude oil we'll have a look at now Yeah, I'll cover the uh, the new zealand dollar is the new zealand dollar versus the uf dollar you'd like me to cover Only particular ones So I brought up the weekly chart on brent, uh, just because The 200 week moving average is is on the is on the radar. We're currently sitting above it And uh, this is here is the weekly chart for brent crude oil As you can see here a few weeks ago We traded we made a decisive break north of it Then we traded back south of it and I'll be able to be kind of receiving support From it in around this area here as you can see positive momentum was on the rise But started to decline ever so slightly so it could be a sign that we are seeing some of the buying pressure weighing but buying large Um, this this this high that was created here was a 28 month high So the so the price of the kind of wider off-road train is still intact We just may see a bit of a move lower before we actually get before we potentially continue to move higher In brent So I flip over now to my daily chart and to give you a showing indication As you can see it's a textbook example of higher highs and higher noted upward trains since since june here So the market center fairly consistent upward trend We're now at the 20th of november and the 30th of november and 10 days time We have the opec meeting and there's been a lot of talk from Saudi Arabia that they want to extend the production production cut Uh beyond the end of march 2018 deadline that it already has in place So what with out of mind the upward trend, uh, the chart is is sitting on this upward trend And the the fundamental position could be that we could see a continuation of a coordinated production cut among opec members. So As you can see here, this it even actually stopped short of the 61 dollars a barrel per year So just north of 61 for the time being is dividing support should be continuing this wider upward trend We could be looking back up towards 65 bucks a barrel and then north of that 66 bucks 67 and so on and so forth Turning our attention now that to that to dissimilar on wti. Although wti didn't actually quite get to its Uh 200 week moving average to start off on the weekly chart Similar view in that the market was pushing steadily higher While the market was pushing higher We saw a decent increase in positive momentum on the mac d histogram It didn't quite get get as high as the 200 week moving average, but a shy away from it That's probably the next big level to watch out for on the upside the 200 week moving average comes into play $58 and 20 cents And for the time being the market receiving support from the uh from the high here in uh in february Was also comes into play here at just 54 dollars and 63 cents I'll take a look now at daily chart so you can get a better better view of what i'm talking about This here this level here 54 dollars and 63 cents just north of it Uh the market actually managed to find support in around the 55 dollar barrel region So the upward trend is still in place So we could be looking heading back up towards 58 and then up to runs 58 20 For the 200 week moving average then north of that should it move beyond it You could be heading back up towards 59 bucks a barrel or even 60 bar 60 dollars per barrel I'll come on to the the currency markets now in one second Uh, I would be covering euro sterling. It's a very popular pair here at the reclines trade Uh, that'll be uh one of the markets i'll be covering In terms of the euro dollar, uh, we managed to see the euro euro actually kind of uh Shake off some of the losses that incurred through september So so the downward trend that has been in place since september is slowly being eroded The market has pushed higher pushed higher here Uh last wednesday but has come off ever so slightly As you can see here the positive move here was confirmed by a steady increase in positive momentum It's a bit slightly worrying though that that positive momentum hasn't even increased any further It's just stood stood where it is. So you don't know So at least at least the upward move was confirmed by the increase on the maxi indicator and on the maxi indicator If the market does continue to push higher should we take off the October highs at 118 79 or even go as high as 119 We can become more confident that the kind of wider upward trend is going to continue But if you do fail the market does might might let you turn over on itself yet again Because bearing in mind it has been in a slight downward trend since september if the market does turn over on itself again Potential areas of support to the downside Could come into play at 116 70 this area here or south of that in at 115 54 or maybe even down as low as 114 79 that this area here or the market was going to ratcheting up higher highs in july Taking a look now at the british pound versus the us dollar Let's open the chart out now Broadly speaking as I mentioned earlier on the top but through some is looking to actually increase the size of these so-called the force bill that's kind of brought some bullet sentiment probably speaking to the british pound but also bearing in mind Since the lows of march the british pound has been broadly been pushing higher versus the us dollar it obviously has a few instances throughout november Where we're kind of dip below but it managed to kind of grind higher and the last couple of sessions Is managed to actually stay off the trend line support that's been in place since november And it's actually managed to kind of even though it's not a major coup But it managed to actually hit its highest level seen since the second of november So if the power can keep pushing up against the us dollar and also notice how it swung from negative momentum to positive momentum So this move here tells us that the buying pressure is with what is with the with the bulls is with buyers The market can manage to keep pushing higher from here the next potential area of resistance Potentially could be the october high of 133 35 and then should we go north of that? We could be looking at this price area here We saw that a consolidation in around the 134 52 region and then beyond that We'll be looking to we could be looking up towards the of the high for 2017 in at 136 59 If you do move south again, I managed to trade below this trend line support Is necessarily an indication that the trend line is only broken because we saw quite a bit of action trading below us And in around it for a number of weeks in november So if we do move south we could find support in at the one or the moving average in at 131 23 And it's only really if you see a move south off to the 130 mark Could you then become a bit more? bit more Concerned for the upward trend and if you move south of 130 then you come up You think yourself right if you could be looking to actually head south and to go south of 130 The 30 moving average comes into play just south of one of 129 in at 128 spot 91 I'll cover the euro versus the British pound now As I mentioned the starting date quite well on the back of the announcement that trades may as I can do pay up on the brexit talks So when the market was pushing higher here in november We saw a fairly steady increase in positive momentum But notice how as the market has been drifting a bit lower We're seeing positive momentum and back the histogram actually cool off So they it's almost like the buyers are running out of steam And also the high that we created here in november failed to take out the high from october So we didn't create a higher high, but at the time being The market is sort of being sort of supported by the 50 day moving average Which comes into play in around here in around zero spot 88 81 So if we move south of that we can be heading back down towards zero spot 88 Or even back down to the 200 moving average in a zero spot 87 79 are down to the the real asset test will have to be The loaf in november, which comes at play at zero spot 87 33 And if you do head south of that There's a bit of consolidation in around the zero spot 86 level here from from uh from may so that that's the next Thanks to level to watch out for should we take out the november lows If the market does manage to get the swing higher if it does manage to take out the october high We could be looking heading back up towards the 91 figure or indeed, uh, were the early september highs of zero spot 92 26 Take a look now at the u.f. Dollar versus the japanese yen So didn't quite quite a bit of selling pressure We saw on that market, uh in At the very very beginning of the months even though the dollar was gaining ground quite steadily versus the Japanese yen from from september The market managed to turn over on itself and since Since november has been as in pushing lower as you can see here while the market was pushing higher We then noticed that the market was pushing higher yet. There was actually ever so slight increase the market they on the mac to instagram the mark have actually swung Mental indicator actually swung at the negative territory And that's the one reason why like to use the indicator because while the market was going on hitting a multi-month high negative the Indicator actually swung at the negative territory and the divergence between the two could be an early indication That the the current upward move is running out of steam Which which we now know was and as the market's pushing lower here What we can see is actually a fairly steady increase in negative momentum So with no sign yet at the at the second pressure is coming to an end as the negative momentum is steady rising But we are nearing the charity moving average which comes into play at 111 spot 76 and notice how The market fell just south south of the charity moving average before its continuation of the upward move in october So we could see a trade below that and he knows it may may bounce off it But but if you do get a decisive break or move below the charity moving average We could be looking heading back toward towards 111 or the low from the middle of september in a 109 55 To the upside if you do manage to continue to get upward the wider upward move That has been there for a few months and we could be heading back up towards the 114 level here Or north of that in at the even at the november high in at 114 76 so i'll cover now i'll cover now the New zealand dollar versus the us dollar and as we're coming up to the end of the webinar all the systems you wrap things up then So i'll cover the new zealand dollar versus the us dollar and then i'll show you all the weapons that we offer And then i'll wrap it up because it's now exactly quarter to one What's interesting is that we're actually very close to the 200 month moving average on the new zealand dollar versus the us dollar. We're pretty much sitting on it in around right here Uh, it did act as a bit of support Only last month in Earlier on in in the area in april it got there, but it didn't actually but didn't actually we've got close enough to Didn't actually quite act support. We have seen quite a lot of trading in around the 200 month moving average So this is going to be a key level to watch out for what it will say as the market was moving lower here We did see a fairly steady decrease in Positive momentum take a look now at the monthly chart, so the weekly chart Similar vein here the market hit you know hitting a multi-year high In uh in july of the summer, but i think it's clearly been pushing lower clearly lower low lower high lower low Not only do we have a lower low, but it actually managed to take out the previous low of 2017 This is this is obviously quite concerning if you're long the new zealand dollar versus the us dollar We can see here that there's a steady increase in negative momentum So the buying pressure is is clearly with the seller and it confirms a negative move in the nisealand dollar versus the u.s. dollar Uh terms of levels to keep the maya for us to flip over now to the daily church So as you can see here that only only uh on friday, we managed to take out the lows create a new low for 2017 Uh, so clearly that's that's that's in itself Is is is quite a cure In the quite a cure sign of where the market is heading if we're back to its lowest level i'm not seeing Since may 2016 so potential level if we keep moving to the downside For this could be the lows of may 2016 which come into play at zero spot 6 6 75 As you can also see here The market was in a clear no lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low lower high kind of classic textbook example of a downward trend And as you can see each time As the as the market was bouncing back We saw it a flip from negative to positive only to see positive momentum actually declined yet again So the this this positive move here appears to be running out of steam So we could be looking to head and be heading south yet again That combined with the fact that we hit a multi-month low only last last friday So we could be looking back down towards zero spot 6 6 75 the november the may 16 low for the For the new zealand dollar versus the versus the us dollar South of that again, we saw like a solidation in around the zero spot 6 6 region But the market In terms of if you do see any levels if you do see any kind of movies higher in the in the uh New zealand dollar versus the versus the us dollar this area potentially here from the kind of mid november high of zero spot 6 9 20 or or even the actually high itself for the month of november in Zero spot 6 9 80 these are areas to potentially keep an eye out for should you see a balance higher on the new zealand dollar versus the us dollar I'll just very quickly show you on a website Uh a few things throughout the day, uh, some of the i even covered some of the analysis today Throughout the day, we have the insight um both written analysis and also um This uh written analysis and also any webinars or videos of webinars or the likes that we do get posted to the insight section So I talked about how this website this website this this webinar was starting at 12 15 The link was uh was posted on insight. There will be a recording of this webinar and it will be available on insight and also tweet it out This here the chart forum This is a quick of a quick kind of snapshot of a chart and a few other characters Well, what's going on the chart and certain prices to keep an eye out on both the chart forum and also insights Can be found under mark of pulse second option down insights third option down is the chart forum flipping back over to our website under the uh under the learning section First option down where you saw uh webinars and events You can see here that there's a list of other webinars that we have on the agenda So later today on mother the 20th of november at 7 p.m. UK time GMT We have the third development program part three the traders mindset On wednesday the 22nd on november at 7 p.m. 7 30 p.m. UK time We have the introduction to digital 100s And back next monday i'll be back on the hot seat at 12 15 on monday the 27th of november Covering our weekly outlook for for um for the week monday weekly webinar covering the major events and also the major news and analysis of the particular week I've been dav man. Thank you all from all of us here at cmc markets. Have a good trading week and good luck