 We knew going in the week 15 is going to be a pretty wild one, given all of the schedule changes, given all the weird stuff, given players missing due to COVID-19 positives. We talked about that on Thursday about how it was going, or Friday, I guess, about how it was going to be a very odd week. Didn't think it'd be quite as odd as it wound up being. There were some wild performances, some really good teams falling flat, very low scores across the board and a lot to digest and force in the Sunday night game, a lot of injuries as well. We're going to break those down, the implications of those, and what it all means going forward and take a look at the week 16. Slate, welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor of Numberfire.com. Brandon, what happened? I have no idea. I'm still trying to figure that out. I went on this show on Friday and I said, you know what, all these quarterbacks that we're looking at, I don't care about them. I'm just, I'm walking in Calamari. What are the odds that Calamari busts against the Lions? I had those odds. They're about 15% and boy, that was one of the realities that they came through. So I didn't have a particularly good week. I would actually say I had a bad week with Kyler doing virtually nothing. I mean, not a whole lot of upside at quarterback but that's kind of the case we made every time we get a few sub quarterbacks. And this past week we had Kyler and Josh Allen and it's like, hey, if these guys don't erupt then you can get by with saving salary. And you know, even with that though, like I don't know who you're paying up for to have big games because big games came from Gabriel Davis and I'm on Ross St. Brown. So kind of two of our boys are going off. So you know, despite that, it's sort of never a good week. Yeah, Jared on Twitter was tweeting about Optibles from a different site about like the amount of salary they used. It was a $200 cap, it might be Yahoo, but it was $153 they used on Fandua checked and the perfect lineup used $51,500. So left almost $9,000 on the table. You had said on Slack it might not get to $50,000. It barely did, but like not by a whole lot. And I think that like somewhat expected and like I think that we did a decent job of accounting for the fact that it'd be a weird week. Maybe the one exception was quarterback. I had enough Rogers where like that did help me quite a bit, but a lot of Kyler. And honestly like I was thinking about that this morning like was it variance or was there an oversight by me? And I think the Rodney Hudson being on the COVID list thing I probably should have cared more about that than I did. And had I considered that, Rodney Hudson's the center for the Cardinals to be clear. Had I factored that more in, I might have gone more spread out. Cause I think I was about 49% of Kyler. I might have gone a bit more evenly distributed, getting more Rogers. I'd probably want up more like Allen to define it wasn't like great, but like whatever. So maybe I should have accounted for that, but like I do think there was, I think that that was like a slight error in process. So we did a decent job of accounting for like the weirdness. I changed up, you know, flex strategy using more wide receivers in it. I've used it my entire life on a full main slate, literally like as long as I've been playing Fandals since I had the flex, I'd never used receiver as often as I did. Probably should have used tight end a couple of times in the flex, but you know, you know, I feel okay with how it went. It just like it's hard to account for everything. I also wish Leonard Farnett had not gotten hurt, but we'll talk about that later on. Before we get to that though, a quick reminder that you can get your weekend tuned up with Thursday night football with Fandal and Captain Morgan introducing Captain Morgan's Thursday Night Pickham, a completely free to play contest series that gives you four chances to win a share of $10,000. Here's how it works. Fandal fans will have the chance to answer 10 questions centered around both Captain Morgan and that Thursday's NFL matchup. Fans who answer the most questions correctly will be eligible to earn their share of that week's $10,000 cash prize. Thursday Night Football will be here before you know it, so head to fandal.com slash Captain Morgan NFL and spice up your game day today. Final Thursday of the week, by the way. So get in for that. Must be 21 plus two, participate for more details at fandal.com or download the Fandal Fantasy app, eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to spice up your game day with Captain Morgan. Also a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast because we have got NFL, we've got MLB. We have got MLB, what in the world? I mean, we do, just not currently. I wish we had MLB. I got to like October before I missed it and I was like, I kind of wish it was November. It was November. I missed it then. Usually I hate it by September, but then like October, November, I miss it. I'm going to clip this so that anytime, you know, you're putting in your fourth show of the day and you're feeling a little worn down. I'm just going to... Reminder that you missed it in December. Yeah, I do miss it though, especially if, yeah. Anyway, we have NBA and NHL. Those are the actual sports that are going on right now. PGA back after the new year as well. UFC, V, Austin, Swames. So a lot of good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Make sure you hit subscribe and also if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review. Let's dive in now to the week 15 headliner and talk about those Bucks injuries because last night, the Buccaneers lost all three. If Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Leonard Fornette during the game, knee injury for Godwin, Evans and Fornette were hamstring injuries. Antonio Brown likely back next week for the past catchers. As for Lenny, Giovanni Bernard is on IR. He was put on there last week. He's got two more games left on IR. Ronald Jones and Kishan Vaughn effectively split the snaps. That was skewed by the fact they were in a negative script. Jones got the heavier usage. Vaughn seems like he'll be the guy they tend to trust more in the passing game, rightfully so. Jones did have two targets, but the evidence says they don't trust him there too much. Also watching him, I don't blame them. For the past catchers, Robert Gronkowski had 11 targets among the non-regulars, so Godwin, Fornette, et cetera. Tyler Johnson was second on the team with seven targets, but again, it's hard to know how much to dig into that with Antonio Brown being back next week. So we have like 15 questions here. I'm gonna ask you all of them. You go with whichever you want. I'll circle back to which ones you don't cover, so no sweat. Okay, how much do we downgrade Tom Brady? A lot. Are you trusting the running backs? No. Where are we at on Gronk and Brown and the others? Well, can't lump them all together. Okay, so I'll go with the Brady one first. Downgrade him a lot. Tom Brady is a quarterback whose fantasy value comes from efficiency and passing production, which yes, every quarterback does, but there's no rushing upside. And he needs that like four touchdown game for us really to be burned by not rostering him in DFS. You take off all of these playmakers, not just the pass catchers, but I probably call Leonard Fournette a pass catcher, because he's just- He's Austin Eckler. He's thick Austin Eckler. Yeah, he's just phenomenal. So someone like Tom Brady gets hurt more with something like this than a rushing quarterback. So Tom Brady probably not gonna be someone that I can justify getting to. And with the, again, we don't look at salaries yet, but with this game being Sunday night, I don't know if they're on the main slate for next week. If they're in Carolina. His salary is probably not gonna be bumped down. So he's probably not someone that I will be able to justify. I don't think I'm there with the running backs. Again, taking out relevant players, you're hurting your offense as chance to get into red zone. They didn't actually run any red zone plays last night. I had some spreadsheet reshuffling I had to do due to my data source changing around. And I thought, oh, I got everything. But then I was like, oh no, there's no red zone data populating for the box last night. There were only four red zone plays for either team. So like offensive plays in the red zone last night. It was terrible. So I'm not there with the running backs. And then it's for the past catchers, presumably I could get to Rob Grunkowski depending on what tight end looks like. We saw again this week what the value of a, stud tight end can really do to separate a lineup. And Rob Grunkowski at times has been kind of like their number one receiver. Not saying he's going to operate as that, but we could see pretty steady volume for him. So, I'm probably there with Gronk and Antonio Brown, depending on his status, but as far as Brady goes, not quite going to get there. And I don't think I'm chasing the back real. I think I probably, something I'm hired on Ronald Jones and you maybe, because I feel like his role has the potential to be similar to like mid season Leonard Fournette. Go ahead. It has the potential, but we do not know what it will be. And we have an 11 game. We also don't want to assume that it won't be cause like, you know, there's a spectrum here where it could be really bad and it could just be a total time share with Kieshawn Vaughn. But I think, you know, Leonard Fournette, if you look at the games where his snap rate was between like 50 and 75%, he was at about 25 adjusts opportunities per game, which is Karius plus two X targets. That's passable in daily fantasy, especially if it's a super low salary. They get the Panthers next week. How low would Ronald Jones salary need to be for you to have a decent level of interest? I don't think I could, if he was above 6,500, I think I'd have to take a long, long hard look. I think around 65 or lower, I would be more open to it, but again, 11 games on the main slate for barring no postponements. Hard to envision wanting to build around Ronald Jones. What if I told you his salary was $5,400 though? Okay, so again, that's the, yeah, I wasn't thinking thoroughly here. That makes sense. Yeah, so. I think the other comp you could use is like Jeff Wilson where like, I don't really want to use Jeff Wilson, but if his salary is low enough, I can be okay with it. Like Jeff Wilson's role is very flawed, but it's a lot early down work, good offense, and I think some of the bucks would be good. They won't be great like they were, but they'll be good. Jeff, Jeff Wilson played 89% of the snaps in week 15. Do you think Ronald Jones? I know, but like I'm talking about like workload-wise more so, not snap rate. I think 60% is the snap rate. I mean, I think there's really one running back who I'm willing to overlook snap rate on and it's Cordero Patterson. And I finally played him this week and it didn't work out that well. Cause there were no other backs to use. Yeah. But at 54, it's a completely different ball game. So. And like they're facing the Panthers. I don't think the Panthers offense can do much here. So like it should be a positive script. Or the odds that being a positive script, I should say are higher. We'll phrase it that way. You know the spread in that game yet? My numbers had it at 12 and a half, I think, but that was before adding in the Gronk or the Godwin and Evans injuries. It's 13 and a half. 12.8. So I think that's a little heavy given the injuries if we assume those guys don't play next week. Like it is partially. 13 and a half on the road too. That's crazy. Do you have any interest in like the side guys here like Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller? Any of those guys or no? I'm just going to look here because it's hard to guess the salaries based on the fact that this was the late game. So nobody's going to be adjusted. I think around at 7,000. I thought we'd get more of a discount there. Yeah. So Tyler Johnson's 5,000, Scotty Miller 49, Jalen Darden 46. Gronk is 67. I see we just used Gronk and Brown at their salaries. Yeah. That's probably going to be the play unless when we do a salary scroll or we get more context with running back that we're like, hey, we really need some salary for running backs this week. I'd be more open to Tyler Johnson, but... Johnson would be the highest of the group by a wide margin. He ran 94% of the routes last night, seven targets. Yeah. He's played even when other guys have been active this year. So he's got some targets and those looks too. So I think Johnson is the highest. I think that Jones is the primary focus this week. We had to dig and decide not what his role will be but like what are the odds he has a role good enough to be viable at $5,400 against Panthers, et cetera, et cetera. Yeah. And I think the last thing to cover is I said I'm low on Tom Brady and I can't imagine using him. Give me a salary for Tom Brady where you think you would want him to be for you to use him in this matchup. Given the injury 76. So he's 84, though, which again makes sense within the context of when the slate was published. Yep. So let's go through some more injuries here from week 15, starting off with scary one for Teddy Bridgewater and carded off in the third quarter. It sounded like it was just a concussion. And I say just, it's a brain injury. But like compared to what it looks like, I think that's, I don't know. I'm just glad that Teddy's seemingly okay. But that's a second concussion this year and that's a bummer. Drew Lock came in average 0.12 passing that expected points per drop back. For the full season lock is at negative 0.20. He was at negative 0.03 last year as a starter. That's compared to Teddy's season long mark of 0.18. So pretty big downgrade for this entire offense with Lock being in the versus Teddy. He does launch it, little de-gaffey to a fault. But this is a downgrade. So we were not in on the Broncos offense before because they spread things out so much. I'm assuming it's not gonna get better with his quarterback change. No, I don't think the market shares will really change based on what we saw. Cortland Sutton had some, some good and bad plays. I've just been trying to watch him because he's like kind of a heat check favorite in terms of talent level. But yeah, Drew Lock's eight dots, 10.1 yards. Teddy's is eight. So that's a pretty substantial gap there. I think the only interest I've had in this offense for weeks now, ever since Jerry Judy came back and we saw that he's not really gonna be featured any more than anybody else. It's just the running backs. And on that note, Jovante Williams did play 58% of snaps to 42% for Melvin Gordon. So we'd basically kind of seen that like 55, 45 split in favor of Jovante. We didn't see that last week. It was about 50-50, but that's about all I could cling to. And with the efficiency downgrade here, I'm probably not gonna justify Jovante. So I don't think I'm, I don't think I could play any Bronco right now. It is worth noting Jovante's snap rate did increase a bit this past week. But like, I think that's just because they switched drives and he probably was out there for longer drives than Melvin was, if I had to guess. So I wouldn't reach much into that. They're just not a team that's fantasy friendly. Both running backs. That's not bad. No, that's better than I thought it'd be, but. That's the Raiders. I'd rather have Ronald Jones than either of them. Yeah, so I was gonna say, we have to guess that Ronald Jones has rolled a sum degree. If you know the years. But if you give me like, say he's getting a Jovante roll with 55-60% of snaps within that, it's still gonna be a better offense under Tom Brady, like, and that savings of 900. Yeah. Take that. Joe Mixon was limping the entire game in week 15. Then he got rolled up on late. Simaje Piran played 31% of the snaps. If we look at the one game where Mixon was limited, Piran played 62% of the snaps. He 11 carries and five targets. 83 yards of scrimmage in that game. Chris Evans would likely take some passing game work, but I'd feel decent about Piran if Mixon were to miss time. We don't know if he will, because we don't know what the status is going forward, but where would you be on this backfield if we assumed Joe Mixon can't go in week 16? That's a tough one. They play Baltimore, and I would assume Baltimore kind of gives them, the Bengals, another straight game of like low scoring, run heavy, you know, just kind of taking plays off the board for the Bengals. So it's really hard now not to think specifically with the matchups coming up here, like I really want to, we've got to kind of nitpick because we're going to get more injury news. I'm down the stretch. It's just how it works. Teams just kind of sit guys out if they're not in the hunt. But like specifically in that game, I don't think I would want to prioritize Joe Mix in that much anyway. And therefore probably not getting there with Piran now that we know, and I love the way that we do this now because it's like we get like, we like it's like a Charlie Bucket peeling off the wrapper on the golden ticket. It's like we get that little bit of information that it's high. Who is Charlie Bucket? Bud. Bud, don't do this to me. Have you ever seen Willie Wonka in the chocolate? Oh yeah, no, I blocked that out. No, that gave me nightmares. It gave me nightmares as a kid. My aunt gave that to me as like a gift when I was like five. I haven't seen her since. Like I just like traumatizing, a traumatizing movie. That's like a, that's a near flawless movie aside from the song with the mom's things. There's so many flaws with that movie. What do you mean? It's frightening. It's great. But yeah, like we just peel away like a little bit of information and we know already now that Ronald Jones is 5400, but we don't know what the rest of writing backs look like. I don't think I can sit here and anticipate being heavy on some on J.P. Ryan with Ronald Jones sitting there, even though I'm a little bit skeptical on Jones himself. I would say 63 would get the salary from me on P. Ryan and he is 62, so they did price him up. So I think that's a good thing because it means I'm less inclined to accept flaws with his salary as higher. So I'm kind of glad they jacked him up a little bit. That makes me happier at least. Yeah, I mean he did score. Yeah, I mean he's a good player. They trust him. Evan's more of like a gadget-y type dude, I guess, is the way that I'd phrase it based on the way they used him. So I'm not out at that salary, but it's appropriate is what I would say. And appropriate might not be enough if we get other stuff elsewhere. So what up? 43 and a half point total. That's tied with two other games for the low. Tight spread though, baby. Tight spread. Ron Dale Moore left the ankle injury after 20 snaps through the Cardinals. He had to carry in three targets at that time. And partially that, but also partially the DeAndre Hopkins injury led to funnelled targets for the Cardinals, also just a lot of passing because they were down. We saw Christian Kirk at 12 targets, Zach Hertz had nine, A.J. Green at eight, Antoine Wesley at eight. Also shout out Cole McCoy for getting some final drive targets to Christian Kirk and Zach Hertz. I was distraught when it took out Kyler, but then he put some more targets to Kirk and Hertz. I was like, okay, Cole, we can hang. We can be friends. You get a Christmas card this year. So Ron Dale mightnest time. We know Hopkins is done for the regular season and likely beyond that too. So how are you doing the pass catchers here on Arizona with Kyler struggling and then the injuries to Hopkins and more? So I don't have the full schedule pulled up for next week. Arizona is not on the main slate. They're facing Indy on Saturday. What do you mean again? They haven't played together in four years. Five. Oh, you mean they're on Saturday again? Yeah, I got you. I got you. Sorry. It's a dome. High total, tight spread. Yeah, I mean, wait, Brown's got to play Saturday. It's bad. And like, I don't think, have either of their quarterbacks been cleared yet? I have not seen news, but that doesn't mean it. Let me Twitter Shetty and look this up. I can't say Google because I'm not Googling and I'm Twittering it. So yeah, with regards to the Cardinals here, I was underwhelmed obviously with what I saw from Kyler Murray. So I'm gonna need you to tell me about some offensive line impact here and how I should really adjust based on their offensive line situation right now. But I think that regardless, if Christian Kirk's accurate during play for close to double-digit targets, I'm cool with that. And I don't wanna overthink this one. It's not like we came out and saw, you know, six, seven targets for those guys. Yeah. And if the efficiency is gonna be down a bit, then I need that volume, which of course it was surprisingly a negative script for them, but I'm still gonna be good with Christian Kirk and Zach Erz. Yeah. I think it'd be tough not to be given that volume, given that it is Kyler. And also like, I think I wanna see when Rodney Hudson tested positive because that would inform when he could be back. Is there, here we go. Okay. So he's placing the COVID list on December 16th. It's been about four days. I bet he's back by Saturday. So that'd be a positive because he's very good. Centers matter a lot. And so I'd like him to be back. I think he will be, I think that matters a lot for this offense. So I feel pretty confident with him. And I think that Kirk and Erz, that's your standouts here, but also like AJ Green, still very relevant. So if people get overconfident and go to just Kirk and Erz, given what happened this past week, I think that, you know, there's a good spot to get back in AJ Green. Wesley, I'm not as interested in, like he ran a ton of routes when Hopkins was out earlier on this year. Didn't do a lot with them. Dig it eight targets here, but I don't care too much. So I think to me, it's those three. And I feel pretty good about all three of them, including AJ Green personally this week. Yes. We'll talk about the backs later too. Julio Jones re-injured his hamstring. Even with this, we had 11 different Titans get a target despite 32 pass attempts. Nick Westbrook, Ikeena led with seven targets. Don Trell Hilliard had more than four. He's the only one he had six. Anything in this offense that we can like not hate is we had phrases. I was actually going to call the Titans, like the Broncos East, but... That's really rude to the Denver Broncos. But like, at least in terms of... At least the Broncos are good when Teddy's in there. Like somewhat good. I know where you're going with this, but in terms of market shares, where like, because you tilt all the time about this team's red zone target shares. They've given 21 people a red zone target. Nobody has more than nine. What is that? I don't know. But what I was getting at in the jokes kind of lost now, but like Denver's a lot farther East than I think, and like Nashville is not exactly East. So like they're kind of just both in the middle of the country, but you know, I think the joke still works. You just called Denver the middle of the country? Look it up. It's a lot closer to the center of the country than you think. If you are West of South Dakota, you are West. That is the rule. That's all West Coast. Yes. No, Nebraska. Well, Nebraska's parallel. Yeah. Denver, Denver is West Coast. Like let's not let's not get a let's not get this twisted. Hey, you know, I know you're you're Twitter and you can Google that and just kind of look and you'll see what I mean. No, I was betting the Raiders because I was checking out the the Browns quarterback stuff and defining. So I had to get that. The other thing I would. Yeah, I would. Oh, wait, we're talking the anti-formulator. So yeah, but with the receivers, we don't want any of this is by Julio being out, right? I don't think you could pay me to roster or Titan. Yeah, what what negative is how negative would the salary need to be on Cody Hollister or Nick Westbrook, I can't even use them. Like if they pay, give you like thousand. OK, give you back a thousand in salary. Fair enough. I think I can get behind that. Pat Friarmuth exited early concussion for the Steelers. He had four targets on 12 routes. No Steeler had more than five targets or 38 receiving yards, so nobody benefited. I used Deontay Johnson, which is very rare for me. He had no targets between or no catches between in either the second or the third quarter. So I hate this team. Najee Harris played every snap. And I think he had like four Fandall points. Can I just like, can we blast this team into the sun? Is that is that rude? I mean, this like, they didn't even hit 50 plays on offense. They didn't even come close to 50 plays. The mailman's here. Yeah, so like, I think this offense comes down to whether you're going to play Deontay Johnson or not. And I don't really know if I'm if I'm going to get there the rest of the season just based on help. But they get kids in the city next week. So we have to consider them for bring bags. Do you include Najee in that discussion? Do I want a 100% snap rate and about 70 yards with no touchdowns? I think we just, so you talked about like, you talked about with a running back, you ignore the only one you ignore a snap rate with is cordial patterns. And I think Najee should be number two. Ignore it, but I'm like a completely different contact. Correct, correct. Okay, so how low would you need to drop Najee's salary to use him as a bring back option versus Kansas City? He was 88 this week, I think. He honestly would have to be like 76, I think. I think that's exactly where I'd be as well. And Najee. He had 18 rushing yards on 12 carries. He's $8,400. Why? Every snap, 17 routes, five targets. Wait, did he for real have 26 yards? That's it? Yeah, I'm pretty sure. Oh my God. Yeah. 26 yards on 22 adjusted opportunities. That might be the worst yards to adjust opportunity ratio. I believe so. Minimum 10? Oh, not minimum 10, like minimum 15, yes. I think so. Oh my gosh. I would be shocked. Again, I don't think it's his fault because their offensive line's bad. It's just heartening that. Yeah. They drafted him instead of offensive line. I mean, like, could Betty Snow get 26 yards on 21 adjusted opportunities? Maybe. Again, 45 plays. Maybe that's skewing thing. Maybe that's a we can. So when I'm talking myself into them Thursday, I'm going to use that as justification. I just want to give you the heads up that that'll be the case. Yeah. I mean, they're not going to play quite the same type of offense for sure. Like the Titans were willing to take advantage and just run Deontay Forman and keep Pittsburgh off the field. The Chiefs actually went from what we saw this week. Kind of might be back to the Chiefs of old a little bit, but that was going to be the headliner until the buck stuff happened. I do want to keep in mind, well, we'll talk about that later. Will we? Yeah, I made a note. Okay, cool. Thanks. I didn't check the sheet. Thank you. Okay, we'll talk about them later on. Sterling Shepherd, Torres Achilles. He is done for the year. Shepherd played most of the game before this. It was pretty late on. It might have been the final drive. Second to last drive. Saquon Barkley split snaps with Devontae Booker, but did lead the team with eight targets. Kenny Galladay had seven. So we got a five game sample with Galladay playing at least half the snaps, but with no Shepherd. It's a decent sample, but like Kaderious, Tony's in the COVID list. Maybe he comes back. Maybe he never plays. I don't know. Like it's a weird situation there, but it's also like probably Mike Leonard or Jake Fromm. So it doesn't matter. Probably not. Yeah. So yeah, we have the five games with Galladay playing half the snaps, but no Shepherd. Tony played in three of those, not the two most recent ones. I don't know if Tony's coming back. So I don't know which sample matters, but even with that, like in the games with Tony, he had a 25% target share. Saquon Barkley was at 17%. Evan Ingram, 16%. So like not a whole lot. Galladay was at 12%. But in the two games without Tony Barkley, 21%. So he's the constant here with a good target share. Kenny Galladay, 18%. And then Ingram and Slate, and it's 16%. So like, nobody's really benefiting either way. The one, again, constant is like Saquon Barkley's got a good target share, but is the offensive expectation enough for him to score? Like no. So I really don't know how you justify anyone in this offense right now. Like Saquon was viable this week as like a volume-based guy when no one was gonna get volume. But like on a better slate, you're not touching that. I don't know if we'll get better slates, but like it could be, they're based in Philly next week. That's not the best defense on the planet by any means, but it's still Jake Frahm or Mike Lennon. So it ain't great. Not great. Let's move to role changes here from week 15. Alvin Kamara played his first game with Taysum Hill and Mark Ingram. And the role here mixed bag, I would say a snapper went down to 62%. That's bad. He did get six targets and two of those were in the red zone. He had two out of four red zone chances for the Saints. Those were the two concerns with Hill were red zone chances and targets. And he got both of those, but he lost nine carries and two targets to Mark Ingram. And it's not a great offense. So I'm gonna lower Kamara a decent amount as a result of this. What about you? Yeah. I'm honestly glad they're not on the slate. It's a blessing. I don't have to worry about Kamara. Tennessee's not in the main slate. That's great. Washington, not in the main slate. I'll take that. You know, this is good. Highton's not on the main slate. I already said that. Yeah. I did a jam. Yeah. How dare you. Cleveland's not in the main slate. That's great. Love that. Honestly, the Packers, I don't really like it's a main slate team. How dare you? I don't have to jam in Jonathan Taylor. Look at Devonte. I want to jam in Jonathan Taylor because he can score points. Unlike the guys, the dudes I use, like he can use, he can score points. It's great. Oh my gosh, Washington Dallas is the Sunday night game. Yeah. How many interceptable passes are there gonna be? On one side, watch your tongue. Watch your tongue. How dare you? So rude. I think with Kamara, he's not in the main slate. So we can't name that salary, but hypothetically with this role, he's like a 7,800 type back. Probably. And that's probably if you're still worried about like Kamara being Kamara too. Like a 63% snap rate is like, if you took the name out of this and applied it to the offense. I think the name matters because the talent matters which means there's a bit more juice in those carries. Plus like the offensive line, healthy is very good. They're not healthy right now either, so. Right. I'm saying if you strip away the name value here, the role itself is probably like a 73 or 74, but with Kamara's name, I can see the 78, yeah. If you do the opposite, you kind of do the opposite here where if you look at the role of Devon Singletary, like, oh man, but he remembers Devon Singletary like, okay, so last week we noted Devon Singletary's snap rate in situations to monitor. We got to have a full on discussion this week because he played 92% of the snaps on Sunday, 22 carries and one target and importantly, he had five out of 10 red zone chances for the team. He never gets red zone chance. He scored and I was like, that's weird. And then he actually had four more chances inside the red zone. So that's actually a good role, but also it's still Devon Singletary and still the bills. So they get to England next week, name that salary on Devon Singletary, all things considered. Yeah, all things considered. That should be like the name of this recap show. It's like all things considered, here's where we go. But, you know, you, me and JJ Zachary and we're in Slack all day, just throwing in updates of what we see. Tossing out hot takes about accuracy of certain quarterbacks. Yeah, but when Devon Singletary scored, I called him Devon Singletuddy, right? And I was like, oh, that'd be a good name if he ever scored. Singletuddy is appropriate because he can't get to. That's not what I'm saying. He's never had to in a game. Never? He's backed out at one. I'm shocked. Yeah, well, I'm shocked. I mean, he's got a touchdown in like one, so four, six, eight, nine career games, not ideal, but it's so tough. You give me this good of a role. Like this is a good role and a good offense. He can accidentally score, especially if he's gonna get some work near the goal line. So I like that. And I don't want to say, oh, he's Devon Singletary. And it's weird, I feel like we should clarify because you and I are typically low on Devon Singletary, like very low on Devon Singletary compared to consensus. Seems to be like eager to play Devon Singletary when the role's there, little more than us. Like with that week that Zach Moss was in Cushman Protocol, I was praying he'd pass through. So I would not use Devon Singletary, praying. But I don't, I mean, within this offense, with all the context and whatnot, I think he's probably like a 7,000 back. I thought about that. That's where I initially was with 7,000. I downgraded a bit because I think there's a chance that the leadback role is not entirely sticky, but only that's only like a two to no discount. The 68th, I think is the appropriate salary. You're looking at me as if he's like 5,000. Not quite 5,000. Somewhere in the middle. Is it 5,800? Okay, so who do you feel better about? Devon Singletary versus the Patriots or Ronald Jones versus the Panthers? No, but probably it might, it's about even, I'll say that it might be Singletary with the sole fact that the Patriots will probably just try to limit Josh Allen and Stefan Diggs primarily. Well, they might limit their true number one receiver. We can talk about that in a second, but. That's true, but it's about the same. And I just know that Singletary's role has been really good. I think that's one of the situations where it's close enough where you can kind of judge it based on what people want to do. Like if they want to load up on Ronald Jones, they get overconfident. They're going to Devon Singletary. Same thing in the reverse sense. People are done with Ronald Jones, understandably, then maybe check out all Singletary. Or I check out Roja then, but I think we're both very viable based on the way things set up right now. Speaking of the bills, first game with no manual Sanders, their true number one, Gabriel Davis Merge. He dominated seven targets, which is tied for a second on the team. Don't need to talk about who's first. Davis had two out of three deep targets. He had two out of five in the red zone. His third consecutive week with multiple red zone targets, and he converted. So name that salary for Gabriel Davis versus New England. Boy, I feel like this one is primed for me to be too low and for you to be too high. 94. What's that, 94? $9,500. So we're looking at that 92% route rate, tons of snaps, seven targets, the two red zone targets, two downfield targets, for me now are 20 plus yards. You can talk with the air yards, can't you? No, no, they changed that. Oh, okay, good. Good, good, good. But thanks for letting me know that the way that I'd done it for 14 weeks was an awesome. I was trying to mansplain it to you. 44% air yard share. I'll take that. Can I give you a comp and you can buy or sell it? Sure. It's not a comp in the way they score it, but their scoring distribution is similar. I think that Gabriel Davis is Marquez-Zelda scantling in the sense that like the floor is not good, but they have a very obvious path to a ceiling and can hit it. Yeah, I think that's fair. Okay. So he'd be like 56, 57 somewhere in there, I think. Oh, I thought you'd be higher. I was gonna say probably like, we're on like 59, 6000. That's probably right, yeah, you're probably right. He is 53 though. So we're gonna have value next week. We will. And like not bad value between Gabriel Davis, Ronald Jones, Devon Singletary. That's not bad. I think that I feel good about Davis. I do, like I said, I think that the... You're the Bill's guy here. Colby's, yeah, so I'm getting dinged up. Is he good? He's fine. He came back in like two plays later. Yeah, he's the guy who led with targets and I decided to omit him. You don't want a five-year day dot? Any worry about Stefan Diggs or no? Yeah, enough that like the way that Stefan Diggs started this season was like, okay, he's not really a true number one. And then he trended toward that a few weeks ago and now he's really not that again. And I had a hard time by Sunday really ranking him above Devonte Adams. We lost Cooper Kup on the main slate. So when I had salary to allocate a receiver, it primarily went to Devonte Adams because I knew that the target share would be there. With Diggs, it can be there, but it's really not concentrated on him. And that's just the way that the offense plays. And that's one of the key pieces of information that you should be willing to use is, here's what these teams do, not what you think they should do. And so with Diggs right now, it's fine, but it's not great. Yeah, I think so. If we have Davis around 6,000, Diggs should be around 74. 75. Is that the appropriate gap? Okay, that's fair. So in actual salaries, Davis is the better bargain, but Diggs' salary is appropriate. So I think that works. Patriots are a very good team and we should keep that in mind too, but. Diggs had 51 yards and seven targets against them. That was the win game though. Yeah. So to keep that in mind too. Okay, let's talk about Duke Johnson. He started for the Dolphins, knit a lot. He was just signed to the active roster now today because he played so well. They signed into the active roster. He was in the practice club before. 22 carries in the targets. Miles Gaskin, 10 carries on a 36% snap rate. This happened after Gaskin was activated from the COVID list on Friday. Brian Flores said Friday, they may decide to ride the guys who were in practice that week and they did. So he said, this could happen, it did. Problem for Gaskin is like, you can be like, oh, okay, he didn't practice, you can ride it off. But like, I think Gaskin's been underwhelming enough and Duke was good enough where I don't think it's gonna go back to the old role. So where are you out of this backfield right now with the information we currently have? I think that like some of the Gaskins are out. Yeah. This is. Until we get a reason to think otherwise, yeah. With Duke Johnson, we gotta keep in mind, it was a good workload, it wasn't phenomenal. With the 24 adjusted opportunities, 58% snap rate, good red zone role though, all five red zone carries. That's something that you can't write off and you have the two touchdowns. So you gotta now apply this to the game upcoming and they play. New Orleans on Monday night. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so they're not on the main slate, but if that game were on the main slate, I think that adjusting for the efficiency there, I would not chase Duke Johnson. I don't think that the amount of red zone trips and just overall efficiency would be there to chase him heavily. Yeah. Unless he can use it. There's also a massive difference in matchup. Going from the Jets to the Saints, that's brutal. Yes, I believe that that's how I would view it. But again, who could say because this game's not on the main slate, so we truly don't know. Another blessing. Listen, look at this main slate, break it in our favor, I love it. That honestly might be one of those spots where I don't believe in the role enough where he were on the main slate. I would actually prefer it because I don't think I'd play him and I think other people would just take the assumed volume and not adjust enough for the matchup because the Saints are really an outlier matchup. Basically Miles Gask in the week 15. You're kind of happy that he's on the main slate because people might use him more so than they should. You're a little overconfident, you know? Yeah. Kind of like that. Jeff Wilson, you mentioned him before. His snap rate shot way up this week. It was 89%. His previous high this year was 59%. He had 21 carries and two targets, turned that into a Buck 19 in yards and scrimmage. Did lose a short touchdown to Debo Samuel. Red zone share for Wilson was 27%, which is underwhelming, but it was still an improvement. So do you buy this rule sticking for Wilson if Eli Mitchell misses more time or was it a one game fluke? I think that we've seen in the past that they want to get him involved for everybody's healthy. He's just not always healthy. And Eli Mitchell did not practice at all this past week. He's dealing both of the concussion and the knee injury. It sounds like the knee is the bigger concern right now. Yeah. It sounds like he's not really close to returning, which is bad news bears for your boy in some season long spots, but... A lot of bees. Bees for Brandon. Yeah. But yeah, you can't really look at that snap rate and that workload. And yes, he's gonna have goal line issues, but I know I just talked about season long. I feel like he's a great... If you have him in season long, just plug him in and you're fine, but we're not talking season long. We gotta adjust for the idea that he doesn't convert on any goal line touches because they do spread the ball around near the goal line. And I know we had the two targets, but historically not much of a receiving threat, although he did run 75% of the routes, 18. That's the most promising thing to me, I think, because we're never gonna find him get 80% of the red zone work with Debo now. So I think it's good. There are a little bit of concerns, but it's gonna depend on the full context of the running back slate for week 16. So... Well, he's not the main slate, so that's good. Bottom of it. Too many. If you were on the main slate, just what are your thoughts on Jack Wilson? 7,000? Is that too low? No, I think that's about right. It accounts for everything. Although, again, against the Titans, if that was on the main slate, I'd be a little bit hesitant just because the Titans wanna kind of... Yeah, weirdly similar to Devon Singletary, where the role right now is very good. I'm not entirely sure it'll stick. And there are scoring concerns slash upside concerns, Josh Allen is Debo in this scenario. So I think they're pretty similar. And some, yeah, just like target share concerns too. Yeah, yep. I think people really think Devon Singletary gets a ton of passing work, but that just might be a mistake. Because he's not a good runner, so they assume he has to be good at something. You know who is on the main slate next week, Brandon? I honestly don't at this point. Clearly, I don't know who's on the slate. James Robinson is. We'll need to see what he does with Carlos Hyde. He considers this a true role change, but building blocks are there for Robinson to continue seeing work. He had 18 of 19 running back carries and six out of eight running back targets this week. He played 83% of the Jaguar snaps. So where we had him, James Robinson, then trying to match up with the Jets in week 16. Yeah, he's gonna be a sort of core level assumption play with no Carlos Hyde in that spot. Let me pull up the implied team totals here. He had 30 adjust opportunities. That's awesome. Wow, they are underdogs. I mean, they just lost to the Texans. They're just like, you think Jets, you're like, okay, but then you remember, it's still the Jaguar, so. Let me see, let me see here, just a second. 42 point, wow. Slight low implied team total, or sorry. My numbers make that 1.97 in favor of the Jets, so it's pretty efficient. This could be one of those spots where we get a little out over the skis with the, like we love the workload and I think people really are rallying around James Robinson for kind of being a little dirty this year, but he got to 16.3 Fando points with a touchdown if they just don't happen to score next week where someone else kind of punches one in. Yeah. That's the main concern for me. Yeah, so name that salary on James Robinson, given that it's still a bad team, but the role is getting better. Yeah, so he was 63, right? Yeah. I'd go, it's so hard to blend the role with this offense. I'm gonna say, I'll say 74. I'll say 75, love it, 82, wow, okay. That's a rough one. Did not expect that. The role is worth 82 and it's a good matchup, but the team is still bad. So like, I think if Hyde is back, there is leeway to be wary at that salary. If Hyde is still out, maybe you just take the 80% separate against the Jets. Yeah, it'll, again, I don't know what to depend on, the state of running back overall. Yeah. But, I mean, we talked Najee, I'd still. Yeah, Najee or Robinson. Oh my gosh. Najee against the Chiefs, Robinson against the Jets, virtually same salary. That'll make me pay. I mean, I pick Robinson pretty easily. I think I pick Robinson too. We put them around the same salary, but I just feel better at Robinson, I guess. Maybe I should have been lower on Najee, I don't know. It's high, but justifiably just a little too high, maybe. I don't know, we'll see. Deontay Foreman snap rate in week 15 wasn't great, but everything else was. He played 31 snaps, so 40%, but 22 carries the three targets. So 28 adjust opportunities in 31 snaps, weird. We always love a good snap rate, but is that type of per snap usage enough for you to consider Foreman in this offense? It's very clear that they want to keep the ball on the ground. I don't blame them. Grind claw, yes. So it's different, right? It's not your grandpa's 40% snap rate. But it's hard to know, he gets red zone work, he had 50% of the red zone carries this week. Just 20% of the overall opportunities though, it's not as good. But with everything, it's a pretty strong role. He's not a bad runner. I know we got dinged up a good bit, but like. I thought he was done. He was like on the field, like it looked like he was in a lot of pain and he's back in like two plays later. I looked like a dummy because I tweeted about it. And I was like, oh, so he's cool, all right? So like, okay. So he had what, 14 and a half Fandal points. I know this one I remember they're not on the main slate, but still 14 and a half Fandal points. My expected Fandal points model had him at 21.1. Again, three red zone carries just no touchdowns. Like you give him a touchdown there. He got to 20 Fandal points. And like, you can't play that game, but like. No, yeah, I think you can. Yeah, it's all about paths. Yeah, and that path is there. Cause he had the red zone work in addition to the yardage and the just insane workload, even on the limited snaps. So if he were on the main slate, I would consider him assuming the salaries though, which it probably would be. Yeah. So I'm much more open to him than I was. Yeah. Just like that. Cause like, I think they still like McNichols and Don't really just played well enough to do some stuff, but like they're probably going to be running a lot. And I think that that's enough to change things here for sure. James Connor in the first game with Chase Eddins back did lose decent amount of work. Connor played 43% of the snaps in the lost in the lions. Eddins played 40%. Connor had a much better snapper earlier on. I think it was like 56% to like 36% or something like that. He didn't get a lot of work. Connor had two carries and target in the first half. Eddins had a carry with no targets, but Eddins looked good in the second half. Like he had some big runs. So we do have one game of data on them now. I'm guessing it'll be a split. I think that split like we're talking about like a seesaw. I think if it were like this before with Eddins, I think it's probably going to tilt this way with Connor now. We're like, Eddins had the slightly better role previously. Connor made a slightly better role now. What do you think about that? Is Connor on the low end because his workload's heavier or is he elevated because it's like a status thing? This is crucial. That's a great question. I think he's elevated because of status. He's being elevated. It was a status seesaw. Lifted by the hand of Cliff. Yeah, so this is going to be like your classic 1A1B situation, which we typically try to avoid. At least for me, that's how I see it. Like a 55, maybe 60, 40 kind of thing. That's not generally enough for me unless the salaries come down and the matchups good, which it very easily could be within this offense. But what's the difference for you with like a James Connor versus an Aaron Jones right now? Aaron Judges' role got better. I should probably preface that. A little bit. Like his snap break got better. His role was still kind of similar. Yeah. Oh, I don't know. I think that like... Do you think he'll play either of these guys? Probably not. I don't think so either. Because like in a vacuum, I'd be more likely to play admins because he gets passing game work. Yeah. But like... And we're not doing Saturday stuff, but like let's say, you know, we're giving two or two game advice for the Saturday slate, playing the bolts. You got to pick one. It's Connor, right? Yeah. Because he'll get the touchdowns and I think they'll get more overall work now. So yeah. All right. I'd agree. It's just a disappointing, you know. Connor was good. Edmunds would be good if he had the full role, you know. Devonte Freeman also lost some work on Sunday. He had fewer carries than Latavius Murray despite out snapping him. Also had just one carry or one target compared to Murray's three. So we had talked to Devonte the past couple of weeks at least being open to him. I think we can cross it off now, right? Yeah. Kind of hurt your boy this week. I finally was like... Oh, you or you. I think it was like, my boy, I got you. Yeah. You're my boy. Yeah. Yeah. I got you. You got to keep up with the lingo. I know it's pretty complex, but yeah. Snap rate falling from around 68% to 57% just wasn't really given that good workload that he had. So he's off the list. OK, let's dive into situations to monitor other stuff you noted during the day on Sunday. One of them we discussed in passing was Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon. What did you see there? Yeah, so Aaron Jones played 64% of the snaps this week. That was up from around 45% in each of his three prior games. He's probably the clear 1A again, but it's really not enough for me. And we see AJ Dillon have a red zone role, goal line role. So that's just it's not enough even within this offense for me to want to play Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon, provided that they're both healthy. So kind of out on them. I keep tracking Mike Williams usage. He had a 24% target share on Thursday. That's the first time he's been over 20% since week five. Now he's at 20% and all three of his past games. I know Rose is trying to call me out. I said over 20% it was 20% flat the two games before this week. So it's like kind of better, but it's still capped in that like low 20s range right now. Now he's very good, but I'm higher on him than I was during the mid season of all, but I'm not fully back in. Okay. Counterpoint, the Chargers are actually throwing deep now which increases the upside of the entire offense. I'm higher on him than I was, but I'm still not fully in. They're on the main slate. They get used in next week. You sold me. Yeah. Give me a salary for Mike Williams then. Well, I just lost Necklace and got sad. So I don't know, whatever. Mike Will, I would say his salary or his workload is worth about 7,000 right now. I was probably gonna say 71, yeah. Let me see what it is. Mike, 66. Probably Mike Williams week. Yeah, probably. I think that works. Okay, continue. So I made this note with the assumption that we'll need value. We kind of have some value opening up already but Marquez Callaway might have emerged as the same number one, 86% route rate. That was the only mark above 66% had nine targets which was 36%, 43% of the air yards. Just kind of really was the guy this week. So it's a one week sample, but it's at least worth noting that it might be a role change. And again, we're looking at situations to monitor. That's, the Patriots don't have a 100 yard game from a pass capture this year. Just kind of wanted to throw that out there as a reminder that there's no upside within this offense. And just because I got a few questions on the Thursday Q&A for specifically the Thursday game, but like about Miko Hardman, he's very dusty right now. He's running behind Byron Pringle into Marcus Robinson. So just a note, if you want to like play the Chiefs, Miko Hardman is not really in the conversation anymore. And you should want to play the Chiefs because they looked really good. Let's talk about Clyde Edwards E-Lair quickly because his snap rate spiked this past week. He played 69% of the snaps. That was his highest since week one. The problem is that he still lost a lot of work in the red zone. He had one out of 18 opportunities inside the red zone. He also played just 39% of the snaps. I don't know, 18's a lot. So the snap rate was half the place to steal or is ran. I think there was something that had like 23 plays in the red zone this week. Was it the Chargers? It might have been the Chargers actually. I think they ran like 23 red zone plays. It's absurd. So let's talk to E-H very briefly. He played in the two-minute row, which he doesn't typically do. That was good. High snap rate, bad red zone roll, improving team. Where are you out on him right now? I'm gonna throw it back to you quickly. Explain the difference to me between Clyde Edwards E-Lair and Devin Singletary. Good offense, questionable, scoring potential. I think Devin Singletary's role is better. That's the difference. So like comparable, but Singletary's like C-E-H plus right now with the roll. Is that accurate-ish? Yes. Okay. Like he's kind of like what C-E-H would be if Darrell Williams were out. Yeah, I think. So it's gonna be hard for me to go too high on C-E-H, but I think people also overreact to the results with him specifically. He kind of gets a bad go of it, but it's fine. Okay, Michael Carter caught some buzz this week coming off IR, especially with Ty Johnson being inactive, but the role was underwhelming. He played 54% of the snaps and split work with Devin Coleman. It's a bad offense. He needs a better role to be DFS relevant. They do get the Jags next week. It's a great spot, but like the paths to failure here, very, very obvious. Brandon gives it a thumbs down. So I think that answers that. Also, in case of Marjax, and this is more time, Tyler Huntley played well. He funneled usage to Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. He could be terrible, but if he funneled work to just two guys, I adore him. So Tyler Huntley, Kingham, give him a crown, knight him. Sir Tyler Huntley funnily worked Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown. So for future reference, if Huntley gets work again, 13 carries, 73 yards to touchdowns. We can go back to this offense for sure. Okay, let's go to... Speaking of those Ravens... Back situation smarter. There we go. I pulled up the Red Zone plays for this week. The Chargers ran 29. The Ravens 25. Okay. The Falcons 21. How? I don't know. They scored 13 points. They were down there a lot because I had a lot of Cordero. I needed Kyle Pitts and season long. I was pretty... I was so excited when Cordero scored. He didn't reach six and a half points. He had six and a half after the touchdown. After it got taken away, he never got back above anywhere close to that, I don't think. And then the Titans also, 18. Red Zone plays, same as the Chiefs. They ran like 80 plays. Yeah, whatever. Okay, philosophical changes. Not really a philosophical change, but the Lions have... Philosophically decided to be good on offense. Since Josh Reynolds joined the team, Jared Goff is at 0.21, passing the expected points per drop back. Awesome. He was at negative 0.06 before that. Amon Ross St. Brown, your boy, got to 90 yards on Sunday. Craig Reynolds went for a buck 17 on 28 Adjusted Opportunities. DeAndre stuff might be back next week, but hasn't practiced yet. So Josh Reynolds, I'm assuming, Craig's... Brother, I don't know. They're both Reynolds. Should we actually start to consider this offense when stacking the other side? Are they good enough where we can actually do that now? Well, I don't know if we're gonna stack the other side next week, but they do play the Falcons in Atlanta. So... Oh no. Imagine trying to stop Amon Ross St. Brown and Josh Reynolds in a dome. I mean, the Cardinals couldn't. Can't be done. Oh no. It's gonna be like, can you imagine how... This is gonna be, I think, this is gonna be a game where we look at it and we say, I don't think there's enough, but the Sunday million winning lineup is gonna have like three players. Russell Gage with Amon Ross St. Brown. Eight out of like six. The sum of their eight odds will be six. And they're both gonna go for like 140 yards. Yeah, okay, for a buck 40. And honestly, it feels like it's gonna be one of those where it's like, yeah, Russell Gage or not wanting to say Kyle Pitts because I don't think he's allowed to like, surpass 30 yards or get a touchdown anymore, but that game probably is not as bad as it seems, like based on the glance of the offenses. Yeah, I mean... Give me a salary on the guys you mentioned in like quick succession. Okay, so Amon Ross St. Brown, 6,000. Okay, he is 65. Fine against respect. Too much. Josh Reynolds, 57. 54. Okay. Craig Reynolds, if we assume there's no Swift. Honestly, like 65? He's 6,000, so. Okay, fair enough. Jared Goff, 96. He's 10, 10-4. Okay, well... He's 71. I don't think I can get to Jared Goff. No, like... I'm not doing that either. But yeah, the Lions are actually in play. It's fun. They're a fun team. Isn't it weird that they're a fun team and the rest of the teams stink? Yeah, like... Yeah. Yeah, it's fun. It's fun. I'm just glad my guy's getting some... You've turned yourself around on Amon Ross St. Brown, who's got 12, 12, and 11 targets in his past three games. He produced so well you would have thought that I called him a fake player this week. I didn't, but he's still somehow produced. Usually when I call people fake, they come through. I didn't go that far with him. I think I called Brandon Cooks fake this week, and he scored twice. Oh, my gosh, don't... You better... You don't want to scale those back, but... Do I? If I cared about accuracy, I would buy a fake. I was actually going to say, that's part of why I love doing this show, is we're really trying to dig into recent changes. And then, if I'm looking at full season data, I'm not going to notice Amon Ross St. Brown's targets gone up a lot, but... Speaking of fake players, Carson Wentz, didn't do a whole lot on Saturday. He could have been game plan specific, but the Colts seemed like they were trying to hide him. They had four passes to 17 runs, early downs in the first half. They are a team that will shift things based on their opponent, so they could shift back. And we know that Jonathan Taylor is great. He played 98% of the snaps. But I think it means you can probably lower Michael Pittman a good amount, unless they are facing a team that encourages you to throw, buy or sell that statement. I buy that. I don't even know if I can get there in the right spot, because there's another good example of, or like another good reminder of what, like matchups matter to a degree, but just because we notice as like fantasy players, like good matchups and like the funnel matchups and stuff, that does not mean that coaches are going to see the same thing. If Frank Reich does, we saw him, the way he attacked the Bucks, they did throw a lot in there. So he does, but it's the most part, correct? You're right. So I don't know if I'd even get there in certain spots with Pittman. I think this is offense is just Jack Doyle, honestly. I heard the J and I got drawn in. I wish it were just Mo Alley Cox. I think it was a lot better, it'd be great. One night Jack on Twitter, or on YouTube remind us, we did say Lovett's cushion alt is fake and he is still fake. So at least we got that. Kudos to us. How high is too high for Jonathan Taylor Sauer with now a 98% snap rate? Can they make it too high? Like 12,000 you like you still consider, right? Depends on the value, but I think realistically, like not even joking, 11,000 is probably like reasonable. I haven't checked out the Saturday sleep next week yet because I haven't finished the Monday or the Tuesday sleeper this week. It might not even be up because the rounds play in two days after today. That's very true. Okay, the Chiefs on Thursday threw a lot. The Chargers typically encourage you to run against them but the Chiefs threw it a lot. They had a 73% non garbage time pass rates and an 11% downfield pass rate. So it seemed like they were adjusting. And Brandon, I think that like to me, this was the most encouraging offensive game they've had all year because the Raiders games, the Raiders play a very specific style of defense. Don't the personnel play like that too high stuff? The Chargers are like the too high team. I know Derwent James got hurt during the game. So personnel wise, they weren't up to like full health but like that's their thing and the Chiefs look good. They did it via Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey like running past dudes in the year 2021. What? Like I thought that was their most encouraging game all year on offense. What about you? Yeah, I saw, this is weird. I Thursday night is my pickup basketball night and it was cookie decorating night when I got back. So I had this game DVR for a long time. So I actually saw the data for this game before I watched it. Yeah. And I was like, oh cool, like the Chiefs are back. Like I saw the Tyree Kill, the Travis Kelsey numbers. I was like watching that game and it was like the end of the third quarter and Patrick Mahomes had like 200 yards and no touchdowns. And I was like, okay, very clearly, they have a great end to the game. But with the traits were there for it to be really promising but like the results kind of didn't come through till the very end. And that's the one thing holding me back a little bit of just saying like, yeah, I'm all in on the Chiefs but I'm probably back all in on the Chiefs anyway. There we go. That's the brand that I was hoping for. Chiefs back, guaranteed Super Bowl champions, right? I'm not gonna make that guarantee. Okay, well. I'm still a little bitter because Chris called me that long. Got this here just waiting for, you know, we can put some stuff in while we're here. But anyway, the Jaguars are still run heavy without Urban Meyer. Their early down first half pass rate with Urban Meyer was 53%. In week 15 with him gone, it was 42%. They had 10 passes to 14 rushes. So still very run heavy. I'm guessing people will find a way to Marvin Jones. This is a week because if it's the Jets, you know, there's the narrative of, oh, Urban's gone. Marvin Jones hated him, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But like, what does he have this week? Is that how consensus sound to you? Maybe. Well, this guy had seven targets and I didn't remember like he is fake. Yeah, Marvin for 39. Well, Marvin Jones at four for 14, so. Yeah, like even against the Jets, like Juan Treadwell had nine. Even against the Jets, I don't really want to go at anybody in this passing offense. Is that wrong? No, I think it's fair with such a low pass rate. So I have non-garbage time data. So that's when you're pre-stop, when probability is between 20 and 80%. They had 35 plays that qualified passes in rushes this week. None of them were downfield passes according to my data. Yeah, they had two total to the entire game. So the downfield passes came, you know. Yeah. Whenever they were trailing. So that's not what you want to see. Mac Jones style. Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones, same quarterback. Not a whole lot of shotgun. So I don't know if we look at this and say philosophically they're gonna be different. The thing you can kind of bank on or hope for is an increase in efficiency. But if they really wanted to change what they had been doing, you would think they would have done it right away against the Texans, but they didn't. I mean, the Texans are too good. I think that's the issue here. Chris Conley have like four targets. Well, revenge game, yeah. Oh, Chris Conley, revenge game, you're right. I didn't think about that. Wow, good call. Why don't we talk about that before? We should have. You should have mentioned this. I don't wanna give out all the tips, man. Fair enough. Fair enough, okay. I gotta make sure people aren't taking advantage of the. The Conley revenge game. They've got two of four for like 14 yards. Yeah, man. You can't let those secrets out. Okay, let's go to the salary scroll for the week. 16 main slays starting off a quarterback. Shout out as you see stuff. My home is back on top at 87. Over Josh Allen at 85. Matthew Stafford is $7,900. A high total tight spread versus the Vikings. In Minnesota, well, they're both in the Dome, so it doesn't really matter. He knows a bit about playing the Vikings though. He does. He does indeed. Tyler Huntley's up to 75. He was a high scoring quarterback of the week. No, I'm saying like, you know. Yeah. I don't know if I'll get there. Tyler Huntley here rust straight up 75 years. Don't let me in. What a world. Jared Goff and Joe Burrow are the same salary. That's upsetting. Burrow's actually not totally off the map against the Ravens, given their injuries. And to clarify, that's both 7,100. But as I scroll, it's looking similar to this past week, where nobody in the 7,000 range is really jumping off the page to me. And therefore, I'm gonna probably look for ways to get to Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. And Justin Herbert, I would say at 84 against the Texans as well. Don't ask me why I'm looking at this, but Zach Wilson has a rushing touchdown in three of the past four games. That's weird. Drew Lacas is six, there you go. Oh, so it's Zach Wilson versus Trevor Lawrence. So it's kind of a pseudo revenge game for Zach Wilson. Yeah, how dare you take Trevor Lawrence over me, you monsters. I love it. I love it. This is good. It's good both of their passing efficiency numbers up this week. That'd be great. Yeah, I think Stafford's like in play, depending on Hertz, his status, how he looks on Tuesday, he could be an option, but like, you know, Herbert- I do think I'll end up downgrading the teams that play Tuesday though. Probably. Probably fair. You're gonna run him back? Yeah, it's like another boring week where I feel like I'm gonna need to allocate salary at quarterback. But I think I'm more inclined to allocate salary at running back this week because we have Austin Eckler and Dalvin Cook at the top and those are a lot more appealing than Najee Harris and Joe Nixon. Yes. A lot more appealing. Yes. Dalvin's 88, Eckler 94, I... So Eckler's role this week was tainted by the fact that he was hurt. So I wouldn't put any value in that, but like, I think I'd rather have Dalvin over Eckler regardless, straight up. I might not, given the matchup here, with Eckler against the Texans. It's Dalvin. We'll have what, 10 days since plant Thursday to get lessed up. You're right, you're right. His role was so good, even when he like scaled back a bit. Fine. Fine. Okay. Okay. No Najee for me really, unless I'm game stacking, but I'll see what's so easy to cross them off of seeing these guys. I'll see what Diante's salary is, but that might be the only way I can bring them back. Yeah. James Robinson, 82, I cannot. I don't think I can do that very often. No. It's too, it's really high. Really high. Josh Jacobs had a pretty good role recently. I do want to see what the Raiders offense looks like on Monday, but $1,600 for a guy getting his target load is actually like not terrible, really. I don't know. Yeah. He's 68. You've got to make sure we're naming some. Sorry, you're right. Well, the one thing that jumps out to me too is like we have James Robinson at 82 and then Fournet, Swift and Joe Mixer are the guys between 72 and 82. So we might actually have a drop off between 82 and 72. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if Mixer will play, but like that could be pretty substantial and that could, not artificially, I don't know the word I'm looking for, but that could inflate James Robinson's roster rate. It could also inflate Cordero Patterson's at the top end of that second rate to $700 against the Lions. I do like Cordero enough though. Sick one 7,000 with the good target shares, but I'm not going to get there myself. Yeah. Um, let's see here. CH65 is still good. I don't know if we actually named it salary, but... Oh, we didn't, yeah. Rashan Pentey 61, depending on if he has a decent role on Tuesday, I could talk myself into that potentially. But I think the primary ones are still the guys talking about four. Devin Singletary, $5,800, Ronald Jones at 54. I think both of those are very, very enticing. Yeah. I don't know if we'll get a week, another week without Damien Harris or the Matters. I think it does. I think that Stevenson, like, against the Bills, I bet they would lean pretty heavily on him. So if Harris is out again, I think that Stevenson at 59 would be in play for sure. Like a pivot away, you know? Yeah. Because he, yeah, I think so. 45% snap rate. They were down the whole game. So it did skew towards Bolden. It encouraged Bolden usage. So I think that, like, there's paths to paying off there for sure. Okay. Receiver? Yeah, that's probably it. I'm running out. Receiver is so much better this week, too. Well, again, assuming games don't get postponed and stuff. But, like, Cooper Cup is 98. Fair. Tyrone Kill, 87. Oh, my gosh. Justin Jefferson, 84. 98? Yeah. My goodness. I mean, like, he's got, like, from a scoring distribution perspective, he's been like Christian McCaffrey. It's like one of them. Yeah, I guess, yeah. It's high, but I get it. Jefferson, 84, feeling is out again, could be pretty decent. Yeah. Jefferson or Dalf? Dalf? Yeah. Just because I just prefer running back. So Deontay is at 74 in that game stack with the Chiefs. High, a little high. A little high, but if we do get, you know, just confirmation of the value backs being relevant that can help with those game stack specific lineups. Hunter Renfrow is 71. Are you kidding me? What's that? Hunter Renfrow is $7,100. Hunter Renfrow or Jamar Chase, straight up. Same salary. Go home. Antonio Brown with those other guys out of $7,000, I think that's actually a pretty enticing salary. DK is 67. DK McCaff. The $6,000 range might be back. It looks to be back. Because he got Mike Williams, 66. Odell at 66. T is 65 against a Baltimore defense that has no secondary. Yeah, so absolutely Russell Gage at 6,700 is gonna be in the Sunday million winning lineup. I hate it. I hate it so much. I hate it. I mean, Amon Ross St. Brown, that stack, that over-salaried stack is... Oh, DJ Moore, 6,400, my boy. I think the whole Panthers team is fake. It's been proved to me they exist. You can't. So, okay, we wanna give Amon Ross St. Brown props for three straight games with double-digit targets. DJ Moore has 10, 10, and 11. What does he do? He had 100 yards once, right? 100 yards, 84, 48, just no touchdowns. But if I'm not mistaken, he got some over-throws, which I don't know if that'll fix itself, but... Yeah, that's, yeah. You know, Mark, he counts down to 64. Receiver's kind of loaded. Yeah. Although receiver is loaded, but it could also be a little bit of a trap where the market shares for these guys aren't necessarily quite great, but the new value is kind of there. So... Why are the discussion on Josh Reynolds the same salary? This is offensive to Josh Reynolds. As Josh Reynolds' agent, I am outraged. KJ Osborne's 6,000 if there's no feeling. In a game that will probably wanna stack up. His role's been good without feeling. Gabe The Babe Davis, $5,300. I think that's gonna be tough to turn down. Like using Gabe Davis, Rojo, stuff like that, Singletary to get up to Dalvin, Echler, et cetera, et cetera. Cup, Hill, Jefferson, I think it's kind of, it's shaping up to me to be a stars and scrubs type of week. Yeah, most likely. However, I will probably want to limit how many of the quote-unquote scrubs I put into a single lineup. I don't know if I wanna put like all, like three or four into a lineup to like max out the top end. I know there's like the, I don't wanna know the scrubs. I want all the scrubs. All the scrubs. Yeah, the stars scrub lineup makes sense. And that's absolutely why the mid-range Lions Falcon Stacks gonna hit. I can already feel it. Yeah. Just pre-tilting. Yeah. Okay, tight end. Yeah. Andrews is 8,000. Kelsey is 78, but Gronk is 67. I love Andrews, love Kelsey. I don't think the gap between them and Gronk should be as big as it is. Probably not. I think Andrews at 8,000 is totally justifiable. Absolutely. Then we're down to Dawson Knox at 61, Hunter, two touchdown, sorry, Hunter Henry, two touchdown guy. I was caught up Hunter Renf... 86,000, but I'm not getting there. Okay. Wow, tight end drops off. Kyle hits, buddy. 59, give me something ever. Against the Lions. Oh man, he's gonna be chalk again, isn't he? He has an a double digit Fandal points in two, four, six. He's had 77, 61 yards the past two weeks. That's not terrible. Although they're like not allowed to throw him the ball into the red zone. So I think he'd have to score from like a while out. Yeah. No, he's got one touchdown this year. When was that one? Like I'm shocked he has one. Like week five. Might have been a London game whenever he actually like got the ball. Is that the Jets? That was the dolphins, right? Oh yeah, yeah. No, the dolphins played the Falcons in Miami. So it was the Jets, yeah. Yeah, it was the Jets. And then he had 163 against the dolphins. All right, now he's here to stay and then he... Where they just like shredded down the field, the entire drive on the final drive to win that game. Dolphins still covered though. That's all that matters. He has three red zone targets this week. Prove it. This could be a Kyle Pitt's week. Prove it. Might be. I like how we start this off like buddy, you're down to 59 like, ah, it's Kyle Pitt's week, but it ends. Oh, I'm okay. I don't think I'm gonna punt to the right end. I think you use the stars and scrubs to get up to Kelsey, Andrews, Gronk. Pitt? I think Pitt's might be the lowest I go. Potentially. I can't, like James O'Shaughnessy is 53, why is that? Why? Why? Who is out here using James O'Shaughnessy? He had 60 yards this week. Who is the moron now, Jim? Cool. Cool, cool, cool. Yeah, I got nothing. Maybe Jared Cook. I was gonna say that too. 51. He had four red zone targets against the Giants, that game where Keenan was out. So maybe, maybe, I don't know. Defense. I'll just do defense quick. I wasn't like jokingly suggest the Panthers, but they're playing at a 1PM game, which means Tom Brady will be fully awake, not past his bedtime. So that's ruled out. The Lions, 34. And after what they did to, what's his name? Now that's gotta deal with Matt Ryan. You mean Kyler? Just making a Matt Ryan joke. Okay. Denver's 38 against the Raiders. They're pretty banged up. I feel bad for them at this point. Yeah. Although the Raiders are 39 against potentially Drew Locke. Actually, we'd probably just say the Raiders against Drew Locke. Yeah. Okay, well there we go. Figure that one out. All right, notes to future me, Brandon. If you're talking to Sunday morning, Brandon, what are you telling him now after having looked at salary for week 16? Don't forget about Mark Andrews. Even if it's hard to get to the salary, that's one of the things that really jumps out. And Kelsey and Gronk. But like, I think by Sunday, the easiest thing that probably will happen is I'm saying, I need the stud quarterbacks because I don't love matchups for everyone else. Need the stud running backs. I want those high end receivers and I'll just play Jared Cook a lot or something like that. And I want to find ways to improve upon that process already. I want all your scrubs. Scrubs, I don't know the rest of the little words. That's my note to future me. Give me the scrubs. Bring me your single terries. You gave the babes. Your rojos. Bring me your scrubs. I will take all of them off. There's only three guys though. We got them. What if I use all three in every lineup? What if I don't? This is being realistic. It's three guys at this point that are really jumping off the page. Unless there are two of them are running backs. Ramond, Ray, Stevenson, maybe. Craig, Reynolds in the game of the week. But like, there are some other like, okay-ish receivers in the low 6,000 range like T 65. Yeah. He's awesome. I can use that. Wow. I know, he's starting to be good. I'll use him now. We're in good terms. Although, one of the best friends. One of the things that jumped out to me was like, oh, we have running backs this week. We really have Echler and Dalvin Cook at the top. Like James Robinson's over salary, Noggy's, Snoggy. Yeah. So it's really not- But like those two, we can have a lot of confidence. Yes, but you know, I kind of joked that, yeah, we've got three values that we're kind of clinging to at this point. But, you know, Echler and Cook plus those two value backs, I think works potentially. It's still somewhat of a receive-reflex possibility this week, but- Maybe, yeah. Less so than last week as offensive right now. Less so, but yeah. We'll see. Yeah. Things will change before Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, we'll be back here on Thursday at 10 a.m. to get you said for week number 16 on the main slate. That'll be on the Fandall YouTube page. Recording live over there. Shout out to everyone watching YouTube right now. If you're watching there, gently hover over the like button. Consider giving it a tap. If you decide to do so, thank you. We appreciate those of you who have done so, already hit subscribe as well. We are back today at four on the Fandall YouTube page with Ryan Williams breaking down the two game slate for Monday live at four, YouTube, Twitch, Facebook, Twitter. So let's break the swing by there. Also make sure you are subscribed to the number of fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and reviewed there as well. Brandon, any final thoughts for you before we close the shop for today? Keep adjusting. That's it. Yeah, keep adjusting. Keep looking into stuff. I know that it's a grind now. I know we got holidays coming up, but the way to maintain leverage is not viewing these players and teams as full season data or even the past, you know, 10 weeks, whatever, like, whatever. Look at, you know, these recent weeks, look at these changes and adjust from that. Yep. Absolutely. People have questions for you on Twitter. Where can they find you there? Well, they can't really, but I'm at the below 13, GDULA13. And I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-M-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandall Podcast Network at Fandall Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your two game slates on Monday and Tuesday. We'll talk to you once again on Thursday to get you set for this week 16. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire.