 there's definitely things we could watch right there's definitely things but it's not going to be a scenario of big macro move tomorrow everything should work it's not that market right it's not that market it's not that scenario so when you hear a situation like this playing out again your first instinct should be welcome to access a trader the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success profitability and longevity thank you for joining us here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge master your process and own your future hey guys good evening everybody welcome to uh Monday edition of the access trader dot com rightly wrap up show so um there's an old adage right when you're breaking when you have good news and bad news you always want to go with the good news first because it's mentally easier to digest so this is kind of where we are right now we're kind of in a good news bad news situation the good news is uh the cues and the nasdaq held last week's lows right that's the good news they had last friday there was a really big aggressive storm of selling continuation throughout the whole week any growth story got absolutely destroyed last week but the bulls credit all they did was and we talked about this on the weekend video all the all the bulls did was kind of retest back to the 50-day moving average held the balance and went higher that was the good news the second good news was well today we could have easily rolled over taken out fridays lows which was basically the line in the sand and we could have completely swan died to the next support zone that didn't happen and what ultimately came was a pretty good dead cat bounce rally and the one thing that we know about dead cat bounce rallies well they're dead cat bounce rounds they're not technically there uh to put in lows all-time lows now next thing we know we're talking about is all-time highs so that's the good news right the bad news is very simple the most basic thing in technical analysis is for a stock to take out for a stock to go higher it must take out the previous days low for a stock to go lower it has to at least take out the previous days low before you could put on any studies and any moving averages any fibonacci's and vwap and anything else in between those are the most basic principles right take out the previous days high we go up take the previous days low we go lower and as much as we had a really good number that was posted on the scoreboard today the dow up 600 and changed the nasdaq up about 200 whatever the case may be the one thing that we didn't happen is take out the previous days high not only didn't we do that on the cues but we didn't do that pretty much on 99% of all the names that were trading off the bottom of the range and that is the biggest problem and you know now we are in a situation of a game of chicken right who blinks for us to do the bulls start to reclaim the five-day moving average where we got rejected here and here and here we'll see can the bulls reclaim back the 50-day can the bears reclaim back the 50-day moving average for tomorrow after rejecting off the five-day moving average we'll see so that here's you know here's the time of your development that you are using the word patience and actually applying you know if you ask especially brand new traders you'll hear the common denominator you got to stay patient you got to stay patient you got to stay patient most rabid bull market okay can't just randomly fire out shots and hopefully something good's going to happen so you always have to stay patient unfortunately a lot of new traders they don't know what they want to stay patient for and that is the problem and you if you combine that with a scenario of we got rejected off the five-day moving average to the upside but we did hold the 50-day moving average to the downside here is now a scenario that you are taking that word the most powerful word in a trader's vocabulary patience and obviously now trying to implement it because it's the hardest thing to do right the easiest word to understand the easiest word to reiterate to somebody else but it's the hardest thing to do just kind of sit there and wait for the next clear sign to happen and what I'm guessing is in the next couple of days we are going to have a pretty clear definitive area well either the bulls going to reclaim the five-day moving average and start moving back into the 10 or the bear is going to take control back the 50 we're going to start taking out our previous lowest channels and going back all the way down to the 100-day moving average until then we are in a scenario and again I'm sorry I'm sure a lot of you guys notice this there's a lot of names that put in really big aggressive hammers thing right the most hammer is the most basic basic indicator in the Japanese candlesticks and which basically means if you draw a hammer right you literally draw a hammer you'll see the the top of the hammer and you'll see a long stick that's a bullish thing right and when you look at a lot of a lot of tech names today you'll see a lot of bullish hammers right here's a hammer here and here's a hammer there right here's a hammer there you know here's a hammer here literally literally all hammers coming off the bottom of the range even the video that looked like it was about the fall for cliff today okay they weren't even coming for you know the 280 270 weeklies they were coming for the the end of the month December 245 and 247 and a half 50 so the bulls did a great job but now guys we're literally in no man's land right we're literally no man's land majority of stocks have not taken out the previous days highs that's the baby step right that's the baby step for tomorrow you know all these stocks that had these big reversal bars say these hammers whatever you want to call them their next step of course of action is hell you got to take out now today's highs you got to take them out tomorrow you got to start building on today's highs that's the order right that's the order of how stocks get healthy again and if we have a one-day scenario of just kind of rallying bag dead cat bounce into supply and get reject and start rolling over that's not a good thing so that the idea of strong reversals of course that's bullish the idea of strong reversals putting in higher lows from fridays lows that's bullish the uncertainty part and to be determined is is this going to be something more and usually i'm you know i've a pretty i'm pretty decisive i'm pretty decisive what i think is going to happen if you guys know me i you know i don't talk both sides of my mouth we either going to confirm levels and go higher or take down levels and go lower but right now we are in the middle of ranges a lot of stocks are literally mirroring what the nazek 100 is doing and now that you know we put on our big boy our big boy pants we we treat we pretend we're adults and i think tomorrow within the first you know two hours or so we should get a really strong indication of today's bounce and fridays remount was real and we're going to start attacking higher prices or was this just formally just a dead cat bounce or a little bit of relief rally get rejected again off the the higher the lower highs or the five-day moving average tomorrow and start rolling over so that is to be determined this is again the part of your development that it's not going to show up on the scoreboard that you know there's an old adage in baseball you know people do a lot of things that just don't you know don't show up in the box score like right making a proper read from the outfield to cut off the you know cut off the cut-off man taking an extra base it's not going to come up in in the scoreboard but this is all beneficial to your development right now we're like in a rock in a hard place we can't make a really good strong definitive statement of where we think is going to go anybody who tells you you know what's going to happen tomorrow you're guessing there's no way every stock is in the middle of the range every chart that i look up it looks exactly the same and now we have to see what happens next so us being intelligent i think we we're all intelligent right and enough to understand what's in front of us and trying not to will our way not to anticipate and not to forecast what we think is going to happen next let the market tell us right let the market tell us and show us and put us in a situation that again we're trading and looking at the market from a position of strength instead of guessing and hoping and being in a fetal position and hoping the god that we're right it's not about that again the guessing aspect of this business is not for professional traders okay we don't want it we don't need it it's for people who want to be right i'm not in any position to be right i just want don't want to be wrong and that's the most important part of collecting data we talk about the importance of collecting data every single day and i think within the next day or two we should get a little bit more clarity of what's going to happen next so here we are the bottom of the channel here got defended two days in a row okay that's that's our line of the sand and now we need to start reclaiming levels the five-day moving average first and if we reclaim the five-day moving average obviously we start going to the 10 and for the stock market to be really good especially uh when you're speaking from the from the technology point of view the cues for us to really entertain to be risk on again right we need to close at least over the 10-day moving average which is roughly 394 we're far away okay we're absolutely far away so for anybody who who who think they're arrogant enough to believe that they know what's going to happen next again i'm doing this 22 going on my 23rd year i'm telling you right now i have no idea what's going to happen tomorrow but you know what i'm open-minded to both scenarios and i'm willing to wait until those scenarios play out so going into tomorrow again 50 50 to coin toss that's just reality um yeah are there some names that look pretty good that could you know could have a day to bounce yeah sure i mean look at air b&b right air b&b had a nice really strong engulfing candle today one of the very few charts uh that reclaimed in one day not only reclaimed five to 10 to 50 and in the 20 but it came very close to reclaiming this linear regression line who knows if it takes out this channel tomorrow maybe you'd get a second day pop i mean that actually looks pretty good a name like vrtx that's been on a really good run for the last week it's putting in you can see here three days in a row of higher lows it's got rejected at the top of the channel here on the 60 minute several times if it starts getting you know finally getting above that 60 minute channel maybe it takes out those recent highs so there's definitely things we could watch right there's definitely things but it's not going to be a scenario of big macro move tomorrow everything should work it's not that market right it's not that market it's not that scenario so when you hear a situation like this playing out again your first instinct should be tear down size when you when you have uh when you can't come out with a definitive at least position in your mind of what do you think is going to happen next scale down go down to quarter go down to third size make sure again before you start allocating any type of of weight in this market we get a clear sign and get a clear path to the go line i give you my word tomorrow will not be one of those days even to the downside if we start rolling back down look at qualcomm you know qualcomm has held the bottom of the range here but it's it's gotten rejected several times at higher levels into supply so again if you could just take down this channel here maybe it starts going lower for the other names like amazon right here's my point right amazon got rejected tesla right tesla was the only one that was able to reclaim the levels look start looking at all other names slowly but surely right slowly but surely uh in the technology name you'll see either really big aggressive hammers calling off the bottom of the range again i'll watch tesla tomorrow why not if this was uh if this indeed was a reversal bar at least we see a lot of room back to the five-day moving average at least the congestion compared to another stock is not in play versus you know what the average true range is in tesla so yeah of course i'm watching tesla tomorrow to the upside but we want to make sure we're reading the tape the right way and we want to make sure that we are not positioning putting ourselves in a position of hope instead of putting our position in strength so let's talk about today as you can possibly imagine you didn't have 75 pivots but the ones that confirmed they they did okay i mean they definitely did okay here you had uh rivn uh traded back down to uh friday's low of 100 that it was a really pretty good pivot at 106 on friday again it just held that level it just started rallying back like everything else rblx got hit a little bit here 109 if it builds below can flush can get hit more here was rblx right here is rblx so it took out that 109 area went down to 104 again very big reversal just like everything else uh you had uh ebay not a big move on ebay only went down like 50 cents scv i'm still watching didn't confirm uh crm got down to the 251 area we saw a rising support there it never gave obviously a second entry so that's still valid apple actually turned out to be pretty good but the weird part is as the market got stronger apple got we got weaker towards the end which was very very odd but apple just in case it turned technology turns around today 165 needs to build here was apple so it took out the 65 here look at the 60 minute view so it took out the 65 went to 68 actually looked very very good and then all of a sudden as the market got stronger surprisingly it got weaker so go figure right who knows there what's going on here uh and again here's my notes i mean you know it's monday uh let the noise die out we want to see if the bulls can hold up on this first candle and eventually they did uh nvidia was a really good short uh 290 if it builds below can can flush 287 potential at least on the first move it got to 287 i would say in about 30 seconds i mean absolutely 30 seconds that whole arm deal uh was basically uh now all up in the air actually went all the way down to 280 so nice you know quick move really really aggressive quick move on nvidia uh apple take on the layup and again as you can imagine you didn't have a lot of meat on today's bone but again we if we take the good we take the bad and the most important part is we build off data so tomorrow i'm delton neutral i want to see how the market especially plays on the first move of the futures if we start getting stuff and we see start things start rolling over obviously we're going to shift our gears but again i want the bulls to win we'd love to see a year-end rally because most of the names now are coming off the bottom and said instead of before three weeks ago coming off the top which again again we talked about jumping off the 12th floor versus jumping off the first floor obviously you could survive the first you can't survive the 12th so guys have a great night everybody we'll see what happens tomorrow stay patient use the word patience as an area of uh of data okay and once we get that clear path to the goal line that's when you go in with extreme prejudice guys have a great night everybody god bless i'll see you all tomorrow