 The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs getting underway this weekend with the cookout of Southern 500 out at Darlington. It's going to be a fun one, because I'm excited to see how these playoffs play out, because it's going to be interesting to see who emerges here, because all year it's been talking about Hendrick throughout the summer, but when going to play-off tracks, JGR has popped up, Penske has popped up. So I think there's still a lot to be decided for this year in the NASCAR Cup Series, and I want to see how things go. And that all starts on Sunday with the Southern 500. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by NumberFire. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down Sunday's Southern 500 from a DFS perspective, letting you know how you want to play things, what data to emphasize, which drivers I like in each salary tier, and much more. Lock is at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. So you got time to fill out lineups. The starting order has been set, so you can actually do that right now, as we go along throughout the day for today. So check it out. Go to FanDuel.com. Pull up a lineup and fill things out as we go. Agree, disagree, whatever it may be. Feel free to get those lineups in now. And again, Lock is at 6 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. Pull those lineups here in just one segment. First, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, UFC Vegas 36 preview via Austin Swim is already posted. That is up on the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. We have an MLB DFS podcast for Friday Slate. We have NFL coming back next week on Thursday. PGA will be back just around the corner as well. So a lot of good things coming up here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Find that wherever you get your podcasts, hit subscribe. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey, football fans, the 2021 NFL season is just around the corner, and you've still got time to do some best ball drafts over on FanDuel. You've got daily contests launching up over there. You can also do private contests with your own entry fee with players you want to play with and all of that. Pick a league, desired number of players, draft your squad, let that puppy run, and see if you can win yourself some cash throughout the season. Head on over to FanDuel today and start drafting. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week. And it's called the track breakdown because that's convenient, but a lot of it is about the circumstances for this race. The first circumstance is it's a longer race. We can go back to prioritizing lap leaders once again. There are 367 laps in this race that is 36.7 FanDuel points for laps led. This is the longest race we've had since June. And we've had a lot of place differential race in that time. This week is different. Last year, there were two drivers in this Southern 500 who led more than 110 laps in a single race. Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott were pretty likely to get something similar here. If we do get that, if two drivers who lead 100 plus laps, they're likely to be must-have drivers. Luckily for us, the guys who could be doing that, the starting order is pretty helpful here because those guys who could do that are starting the top 16 spots. The 16 playoff drivers are in those top 16 spots of this race. They'd be the guys most likely to lead. So we don't need to balance place differential versus laps led for our studs. They will all be in play to lead laps because they are starting at least within the top 16 spots. And those are the best drivers. The top 14 drivers in my model's projected average driving position are playoff drivers. So we want to focus on those playoff drivers for our lap leaders. That's what we want anyway. So it lines up well. Both the strategy and the starting order mesh perfectly for this week. And when I say lap leaders, that's plural and it's kind of vague, but I would not settle for just two personally. I would get at least three playoff drivers per lineup, even if that does make our lineups a little bit top heavy. We had the same circumstances last year in the first round of the playoff, three longer races with the playoff drivers starting inside the top 16 spots. In both Darlington and Richmond, three playoff drivers made the perfect lineup. For Darlington, there were three drivers of salaries of $10,500 who made it. So it does force you to scramble a bit, but I think it's a worthwhile tradeoff given the upside you get via those studs at these tracks. I also think it's interesting this week, you don't have to make the bank to get some potential lap leaders. We'll talk more about some guys who could give you cheaper, lower salary lap sled in the tier by tier breakdown, but there are some guys who I think will be in contention on Sunday who don't have the highest salaries. One thing I didn't mention about last year's race when talking about the lap leaders is the guys who led a bunch of laps did finish poorly. Those were Truex and Elliott's and they hit the wall while fighting for the lead in both those guys had to pit. That's usually going to lend itself to a place differential race where you see guys lead a lot of laps finish poorly because the pool of laps led for drivers who finish well is smaller than in that scenario. And you'll often see a place differential come through, but we still had three playoff drivers in the perfect lineup. It happened because those guys are just the ones you expect to finish best. Finishing points matter a bunch, so there are very few ways I can see this race playing out where you don't have a minimum of two playoff drivers in the perfect lineup. I want three in each mine personally and I think we can get a fourth two. We'll talk about that again in the tier by tier breakdown, but have the emphasis on the guys starting inside the top 16 spots for this week. For the non playoff drivers, we will have some place differential options. Matt DiBenedetto and Ross Chastain rank 15th and 16th in my model. They are starting 30th and 23rd respectively. That's going to play pretty well. So we'll be able to get some place differential from our value plays, but for the studs and mid-range plays, we need laps led and I will be prioritizing that for this week. To figure out who will lead laps, I would lean on two things. The first one is course history because they actually got pretty good data there. They ran in Darlington three times last year. It wasn't a different rules package, but they ran it back in May this year in the current rules package. So if the drivers were fast in the Darlington race this year or last year, I would say they're probably going to be fast on Sunday once again. Outside of that Darlington race and the ones last year, I'd focus on other races with playoff representation. So what I mean there is Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville because we've seen some teams, primarily Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske, totally sell out for the playoffs. They let Team Hendrick Motorsports dominate during the summer because it seems like they've put all their resources and doing well this time of year. Others like Hendrick have had a more well-rounded approach and I think those playoff-centric teams will pick up here maybe even if they haven't done a ton over the summer. Truex hasn't done a ton this summer. Neither is Hamlin. I expect them to surge a bit this weekend. So the races I am emphasizing here most are Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville in addition to Darlington. Dover National and New Hampshire do help because they were in this rules package, but I would rank them below the other tracks this week. We're going to see every team's best this week and I want to make sure I'm accounting for that. So again, emphasizing playoff tracks, seeing what they've done there, and looking at past races at this track as well. So to recap here, we do need to prioritize lap leaders once again. I want at least three playoff drivers in each lineup. I might get a fourth. Again, we'll talk about that a bit. I am willing to go very top-heavy to make that happen. I know that is risky, but there are some punting options I do like and I'm willing to go there. You can get some place differential for your non-playoff drivers. When you're looking at who to pick, look at the first Darlington race, look at Richmond, Phoenix, and Martinsville, and then Dover National and New Hampshire slide in after that. I'll talk a lot about what drivers have done in this rules package this year. That will include Bristol just because it's easier to filter out that way, but Bristol easier to de-emphasize because it was run on dirt, whereas the others were run on pavements. And it is an eight-race sample if you include Bristol. So a pretty good sample. We should know who will be fast on Sunday. Speaking of that, let's talk about the elite tier in our tier-by-tier breakdown, starting off with Kyle Larson, who is $14,000 on FanDuel, through Denny Hamlin at $12,500, and the three most likely winners in my simulation are all in this tier. Those guys are Truex, Hamlin, and Larson. My wins, Sims have it in that order. Truex, Hamlin, Larson, I would personally put Larson above Hamlin, but that's what the Sims see for this week because those guys are going to lead laps. At least one of them is going to lead a lot of laps on Sunday. I can say that with a good amount of certainty, Truex, almost one last year, he dominated the spring and won the race. Larson has podium finishes and four of the past five Darlington races. Hamlin has had a top four average running position at all four playoff 750 tracks. So I love all three of those guys, and I'm going to have a lot of them. The guy I'm easily lowest on this tier is Kyle Busch. Busch's best average running position in the four playoff 750 tracks, eighth. His best finish is third. Now both that finish and the average running position came in Darlington, which is very good, but he led just 33 laps in this package on ovals, whereas Truex, Hamlin, and Larson all led at least 500 laps in this package. So I'm going to be pretty low on Busch relative to the other three guys in this tier. I'm going to write this one. Truex won Larson to Hamlin three, Busch four. I will also say on Vanduul Sportsbook you can bet Hamlin at minus 102 over Kyle Busch, and I think that is a pretty intriguing bet for me this week. The second tier on Vanduul is Chase Elliott at $12,000 through Alex Bowman at $10,000. Chase is going to be the first guy in this tier straight up. He nearly won here last year. He always has a race winning upside. So straight up Chase Elliott number one, but there are a lot of mid-range guys here who could win for a low salary. I mentioned before I want to jam in potentially four playoff drivers. These are the guys who allow us to do so. Get your Truex, your Hamlin, or your Larson and then pepper this range and one guy in the range below it. The guys I like here most who best fit that mold are William Byron, Joey Logano, and Alex Bowman. Logano leads the sport in average finish on ovals using the 750 horsepower package. Byron ranks third in that stat. They both also had a sixth place average running position at Garlington back in May. Logano ran well at other playoff tracks. He almost won Phoenix. He would have won if not for Lake Caution. He finished third in Richmond. He led 49 laps in Richmond, 140 something in Phoenix as well. I think he's undervalued in the betting market at plus 1800. He's 10-5 on FanDuel. He is my favorite of the mid-range guys. I was saying that Chase Elliott was first overall. If you give me the salary discount on Logano at 10-5, I will take that and rank him higher. So, Logano to me number one in this tier. Byron hasn't had the best upside. He has led just 30 laps in these three races or these eight races, I should say. Most of those laps occurred in Dover, which is a non-playoff track and pretty different from Garlington. Byron is crazy consistent. So, even if he doesn't lead laps, he should get us a good finish. I do like Byron quite a bit. The reason like Bowman is his record on tracks with heavy tire fall off. He won at Fontana last year. He won at Richmond this year. Both those tracks fall in that bucket. He was also runner-up in the first Garlington race last year and he had a top eight average running position in all three races. He's starting fifth, so you're not going to get any place differential out of Bowman, but I think he could win this race similar to Logano. I think that all three of those guys, Bowman, Logano, and Byron, are keys to jamming in more playoff drivers and potentially getting two of those guys in the same lineup can make that a lot easier on you. As for Kevin Harvick, I do like him at 11-5. I just don't feel as good about his upside as the other guys in this tier. I do still want to get there because my model really likes Harvick this week. It's more into him, I think, than it's been the entire year. I think it'll be hiring him next week in Richmond, depending what happened this week, but it's pretty high at Harvick and it hasn't been for most of the year. I'm going to rank him behind the others, but I will say I just want to be in this tier a lot. I would still like to get there at times. I'm going to rank this tier after considering a salary. Logano won Chase II, Byron III, because he has some place differential upside, Bowman IV, Harvick V, Brad Kezalowski VI. Kezalowski is starting 16th, but I haven't seen a ton from him in this package, so I'm okay being a bit lower on him. The mid-range is Ryan Blaney at $9,800 through Erika Merola at H2, to the fore that I might try to jam in a fourth playoff driver, and that guy to me I'd be targeting there is Christopher Bell. He's $9,200. I think I can make that work. He's starting 13th, so some place differential juice there. He has been awesome in this rules package. In the seven non-dirt races, he has two top fives and five top tens across seven races. He finished runner-up in the most recent race in this package at New Hampshire. I think that Bell is a dark horse to win a race this round. It may not be at Darlington, but I think he could be in contention at Richmond. He could do some stuff at Bristol, so whether Bell is the third driver in my lineup or the fourth, I want to be in on him this weekend. I think that, again, you can make a four playoff driver lineup work via Christopher Bell, and I really do like the thought of that for this week. Austin Dillon is the lone playoff driver in this tier. He's starting back in 21st. He has just one top 10 in this package this year. That was a 10th place run in Richmond. He did finish runner-up in this race last year, though, but he was 16th in the May race this year. I'm pretty wishy-washy on him. I will use him, but I do like some guys in the tier beneath him more. I'm going to rank this tier Bell 1, Dillon 2, Tyler Redick 3. He's starting up front, but he could run pretty well. I think that Redick, this track fits him pretty well, so I would like to get there at times for him, just not as high on him as I am with Christopher Bell. I've got Ryan Blaney 4th, Kurt Busch 5. Both of those guys are starting in the top three spots and might need a win to pay off. Blaney was much better here in May than he usually is, but still not his best track by any means. Kurt Busch, he can get the job done on slick tracks, as he showed in Atlanta, just not as good in this package so far this year. I'm okay being a bit lower on them. Eric Almerola is going to be number six for me in this tier. The value tier to me is pretty good. It is Ross Chastain in $8,000 through Cole Custer at $6,300. There are three, what I think, are really fun options in this tier, all starting further back. Those guys are Ross Chastain, Matt DiBenedetto and Chris Buscher. Chastain is starting 23rd. DiBenedetto 30th and Buscher 34th. Chastain has been especially good in this package recently. His average running positions at Dover, Nashville, and New Hampshire were 14th, 10th, and 9th respectively. He finished second in Nashville, so show good upside there. He's number two for me in this range if we're talking about cash gains. I put DiBenedetto ahead of him for cash gains. That's partly because DiBenedetto is starting 30th, so deeper in the pack, a bit more place differential upside there. DiBenedetto's consistent whereas Chastain is more volatile. For tournaments, I want Volatility. I want Ross Chastain. I want that upside that he has. His upside is better than DiBenedetto's. For cash gains, I would favor DiBenedetto, but the preference is to get both, honestly. I think the both are cash gain viable. Buscher is a guy who used to be brutal in Darlington. At least he was last year in this package. He was bad last year, but he's really good on high tire fall-off tracks. No surprise that Buscher finished ninth year back in May. His team has put a heavy emphasis on the 550 package. That's why I'm going to rank him behind both Chastain and DiBenedetto. They have not emphasized his package this year, so that's why he's lower than them. But Buscher, to me, is a cash gain consideration and a great tournament play, too. Ranked this tier, DiBenedetto won for cash games, two for tournaments. Chastain is one for tournaments, two for cash games. Buscher is three, Stenhouse four, Cole Custer five, and Bubba Wallace number six. The punting tier is not bad. That is Daniel Suarez at $6,000 on down. There are three guys in this tier who ran well at this track back in May. Those guys are Eric Jones, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Newman. Briscoe is pretty interesting to me because he finished 11th in that race. That is his only top 20 finish at a non-dirt track in this package. But he did win here in Darlington in the Xfinity series. I believe he beat Kyle Busch. They might have been banging doors. I might be imagining this, but I'm pretty sure he beat Kyle Busch in a pretty tight finish last year in the Xfinity series. He does really well on high-banked tracks, so I'm okay taking slides at Briscoe. Jones was amazing here when he was with Joe Gibbs Racing back in the day, and it was not just the win. He also ran well outside of his win as well. My Sims account for his bad equipment pretty heavily, and they still haven't ranked 19th. That is the highest of anybody with a salary lower than $7,800, and he's $5,800. Newman is someone who's upside I always question, but he was 10th here in May. I am very interested in all three of these guys, and will consider jumping down here decently often to jam in more playoff drivers. The bell lineups can work a lot easier if I go to Jones, Briscoe, or Newman for that fifth slot. I'm going to rank them Jones-1, Briscoe-2, Newman-3, but all three at least considerations for me to jam in more playoff drivers for this week. Let's finish up with our win picks for this week. I'm going to trust simulations for this week and go with what they say. They say that the most likely winner for this week is Martin Truex, Jr. Truex was disgusting here back in the spring. He's had some rough summer races, but again, it seems like they're focusing a lot on the playoffs. He's three wins here coming playoff tracks, and I think that matters. Martin Truex, Jr. is my win pick for this week in the top range. Among the guys below $10,000, my simulations have Blaney, Reddick, and Bell all pretty even. I could go with any of those three. I will go with Bell. He has been pretty kind to me recently. We had him as the win pick down here for Road America. He finished second there for New Hampshire when he finished second. I do think that Bell grades out well. Blaney is still skeptical of the track history. That's why I'm okay glossing over him here, but Bell to me, a good win pick. The official win picks going all in on Joe Gibbs Racing with Martin Truex, Jr. and Christopher Bell. That is all the time that we have here for this week on the He Check Fantasy podcast, but as mentioned, a lot of good stuff here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. UFC DFS podcast via Austin Slave is posted. MLB DFS podcast posted for Friday as well. We've got NFL beginning next week, PGA the week after that once again. A lot of good stuff. Make sure you are subscribed and also leave us a rating and review if you like what you hear. If you've got questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel podcast network at FanDuel podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck with your lineups. Enjoy the Southern 500. Enjoy the playoffs. We'll talk to you once again next week for Richmond. This has been the He Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.