 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody's having a great weekend. It's raining. It's about the snow. Welcome to New Jersey. But hopefully you guys are alive, right? Hopefully you guys are alive and you're watching this. It means you're breathing, you're alive. Somebody loves you. Life is good, right? This whole money trading obsession that everybody needs to do within the first 15 minutes of trying it. And if they fail, they feel like it's the end of the world. It's all nonsense. It's all about collecting and sharing moments, guys. That's the name of the game. I appreciate my kids getting older and older now. It's really kind of depressing that, you know, 11 and a half years ago, my first child was born. And now they're kind of going into almost like middle school and it's time flies so fast that if you don't really take a step back and really appreciate the little moments in life, life's going to pass you by. And all these things about trying to be a professional trader, trying to be, you know, this larger than life character in your mind. These are all the great aspirations. They're great goals to have, all that good stuff. But if you don't scale back and really appreciate what you have instead of what you want, you know, you're really going to regret it as you get older. So hopefully you guys are really in a position in life emotionally that you can really appreciate what you have and not what you want. So let's get to the aspect of trading, okay? So, you know, I hear this all the time and especially because of social media, you hear it much, much more. And you hear traders talking about they're going to do, I'll do anything to succeed, right? I'll do anything to succeed. I'll work, I'll use, I'm going to use the sarcastic word, I'm going to study the social media word, I'm going to study. I'm going to do whatever it takes necessary to become a professional trader because that's my dream. That's my goal. That's all I want to do, right? And the problem with that, all that is not that you want it. The problem with that is most traders, because we are in such a very, very fast moving society, instant gratification society, excitable society, emotion elevated society, that most traders will continue to be their worst enemy. And for all you guys who've been watching these videos, especially on the weekend updates, you kind of know that what's great about the weekend updates, you can always go back to the prior week and see exactly what I was thinking, what my mindset was, and how the week played out. Usually pretty on the ball of how things are going to play out. And if you remember last week, we started talking about, and it wasn't the first time we talked about this, but we talked about how retail is always the one who gets screwed, basically, right? They're always the ones in the front lines, they're the pawns. And we talked about Tesla last week, right? And we talked about the idea of the fear of missing out on Tesla, and that, you know, you just need it to be right, you need it to be ahead of the curve, you need it to be in the right stock at the right time, the hot stock, right? The hot stock. And we talked about the, you know, the reality of retail is always the last to know. And when institutions and professional traders are loading up, not necessarily loading up, just trading the stock at technical levels, okay, retail is going in really, really levels that you couldn't even even comprehend if you're a professional trader. And at the end of the day, it always ends up exactly the same way, right? It doesn't make a difference what stock it is, it's going to end in the same way. Unfortunately, new traders, they don't learn their lesson, okay, and they continue to do the same thing over and over again. And the previous week, you know, I talked about this other little stock, ATIS, it's going, it's going, it's going, it's going to be the next one to go and dies. So it doesn't make a difference of what stock you're trading. The reality is, if you put yourself in a, continue to put yourself in a position that all you're doing is self sabotaging yourself, you really have to ask yourself a very fair question. Well, what the hell is the point of all this? Right? How long can I do this or attempt to do this and continually do the same thing over and over again and expect to get same results? And again, it's, it's a, it's a revolving door of new traders every single week. Okay, you might not see it personally experience it, but you're going to see a revolving door of traders every single week. So for example, when I was trading, when I was trading a generic years ago, you know, this is 99 2000 2001, this is a really, really aggressive market, the internet, the dot com. And we still saw a really aggressive revolving door of new traders. I constantly saw new faces in our office and I couldn't figure out why there were so many people leaving. I understand why so many people are coming. I just couldn't understand why so many people were leaving. And, you know, as every new generation happens, as every new start stock symbol happens, the same common denominator is there, the traders, the new traders that are going to be quote unquote aspiring traders are going to continually shoot themselves in the foot. So again, new stock, right? Same thing. And, you know, again, I'm not talking to the professional trader. Okay, if you're been trading 7 10 12 15 20 years. This is not for you. You know your risk, right? You know your risk. Who might it tell another adult if you want to buy a stock at 20 right with a $2 risk? God bless. I'm talking about the new trader. Okay, I don't, I don't market to the new trader. I'll help out the new trader. I'll fully really put themselves. I really try to put the new trader in a position to succeed, but I don't market to the new trader. I don't, I don't want the new trader because the new trader majority, the new trader mindset is I have to figure things out yesterday on my failure. And with this new generation of stock symbols, not, you know, not traded, you're going to see the same thing over and over again, and traders are constantly, you know, bombarded with the idea that the hottest, the sexiest, the biggest moving stocks are the way to go. And the worst thing that could possibly happen to again, to the new trade, I'm not talking about the experienced trader. The worst thing that could possibly happen to a new trader, you know, chasing one of these stocks up, that you actually make money. Okay, it's the absolute worst thing because what's going to happen is you're going to think it's normal. Okay. And the problem with thinking something is normal when the reality it's not. Okay, is you're going to give it back. It's like going to the casino and your first time gambling, you make $1,000, $500, $300, whatever the case may be. All of a sudden in your mind, you think this is normal. The problem is, if you really go back to casino edge versus the player edge, you're going to see that casino is going to win nine and a half out of 10 times. And the problem with the new trader making money on one of these plays, okay, is they're going to think it's normal. They're going to go back and in time, it might not happen in the next trade. It might not happen in the trade after that. But in time, you're going to wind up on tilt. It's just the reality. When you have a vehicle, okay, and again, it could be any symbol, but let's just use BPTH this week, right? It's a crazy move going from $2 to $70. I just want to know, just as somebody who's been doing this for a very long time, I understand buying it here. I get it. You want to buy it here, fine. I understand you want to buy it here. That's fine, because again, at least if you're a professional trader, you have a distribution channel here. You have a distribution channel here. You have data points that you could go back full of digestion points that you can say, okay, if it takes out this level, I want to get along with it fails. I have a very definitive stop over the previous rise and candle. I get that part. But what I don't understand and I'll never understand because I never put myself in a situation like that is for all you guys who are honestly giving this a really good shot, right? And you say, I want to be a trader. I want to do this for 10, 20, 30, 50 years. But how long ever you want to do this, my understanding is still to the point that how can you put your money? Okay, and again, you guys are all grownups. You can do whatever you want. This is just me thinking out loud. How can you justify putting your money on the line here or here or here? Or, you know, this is already this is Pluto. This is this is this is Saturn. This is Mars. I don't even forget about up here. How do you justify putting your money here without the wrap without really fully understanding the ramifications and understanding this is 100 years of data of traders aspiring traders chasing stocks all over the place. Again, I'm not even talking about you guys. And I've seen so many tragedies of these things, shorting these things on the way out to the blood or accounts blah, blah, blah. I learned my lesson. You shouldn't be in these things. Okay, if you're a new trader, you shouldn't be in these things. If you're trading less than three years, you shouldn't be in these things. These are the most aggressive, aggressive, average true range wife, husband, marriage killers that you ever going to come across. Okay, if you're a professional trader, you get it. You know the risk. You get it, right? You're smart. You've been through it. You know what you're up against. You know what's going to happen. If you're wrong, you get it. It's the new guy. It's the new girl, right? It's the new trader has been trading for three years, two years, one year. And you say to yourself, well, I can't trade Tesla because it's so crazy. I can't trade Amazon because it's so nuts. I can't trade Netflix because it's so crazy, but I'm willing to buy a stock that just went from two to 17 to 25 to 40 to 60 to $75 a share. And if you don't see something wrong with that, okay, again, if you don't really acknowledge that something's wrong with that, there's nothing that you could learn or quote unquote, you know, borrow the word social media study. Okay, that is ever going to put you in a position for longevity. It's the fact. You don't have to agree with what I'm saying, but you know I'm right. Okay, you know I'm right. For all you guys who had great success with a stock like a BPTS, I'm not even talking about this one specifically. You see the same pattern going every single week, every single year with the hot stock of the day. So for all you guys who are sitting there and really saying I'll do anything to be a professional trader, I will study my ass off, I will do anything, I will look at charts, I will back test. And then the next, as soon as you possibly get that first opportunity to trade, I use that word loosely, to trade a stock that's just gone from two to eight to 12 to 25 to 30 to 40 to 60 to $75 a share. I just want to know what is your plan B? Okay, because plan A is obviously not working. Again, you could turn around and say, Dan, you don't know what you're talking about. I did this like, okay, I don't need to. It doesn't affect my life. I'm speaking to the trader who emails me 30 times a week and says, well, I don't understand what I'm doing wrong. I bought the stock at nine, it went to 12 and now it's at six. Just listen to what you're saying. Take a step back and listen to what you're saying and then really think about, you know, really think about break down your words. And again, trading is all about methodical, boring, right, methodical, boring process, predictability, right, high probability, defending your capital like it would be your children. Okay, putting yourself in a position that you're going to trade 20, 30 years from now, if that's the case. But unfortunately, people don't look at it that way. They're looking at it is the hot stock of the day. I have to get in. I know it's going to go higher because somebody told me it's going to go higher, right? I'm buying it at the high of the day up 850% of the day. And then 15 minutes later, when I sell it down six in 30 seconds, I'm trying to figure out what went wrong, right? It's your wake up call. Okay, again, you're all adults. You're all allowed to do whatever you want from your money. But at the same time, then you can't come to another adult, another human being and say, I don't understand what I did wrong. It's my luck. How come I bought the top? Well, eventually, that's what, you know, that's what the market universe does. It's going to single out. It's going to really weed everybody who doesn't really have a grasp of what they're doing. And they're going to make them go away. It's like that scene. One of my favorite movies is rounders, right? One of my favorite with Matt Damon. And he tells his girlfriend at the time when she's talking about poker as luck versus a game of skill. And Matt Damon, and I'm paraphrasing, you know, asked her, why do you think the same 10 guys always make the final table? Okay, trading is exactly the same thing. If you notice the professional traders that survived 10, 15, 20, 30 years, they found their edge, right? Well, they're working on their edge. They're constantly trying to improve their edge. They're not going to go out and put their money on the line on something that they don't have complete control. Okay. And when somebody looks at me and says, wow, Dan, I can't believe you're saying that because you trade the most aggressive stocks in the market. What the most ironic part about that statement is, even though like a Tesla, a Netflix, an Amazon, you know, a Nvidia, a Roku, a Square, yes, they're very, very aggressive. But they're completely controllable because again, the majority of these trading vehicles are not representing retail. And that's the key. So when you have a monster option sweep of half a million dollars, a million dollars, $2 million, $3 million on a single sweep, you're going to see aggressive institutional buyers come in right after that. And especially when it confirms a pivot, it's going to explode. It's going to really, really fly compared to Joe Blow with a $1,000 account, trying to make, you know, trying to make a move that stocks right up 300% to another guy that has a $2,000 account. And you're in the process of jumping over each other with $2, $3,000 accounts. This is all retail. And at the end of the day, as we talked about in last week's video, retail gets slaughtered every single time. So if you want to be a professional trader and that's really, really a goal. I mean, at some point you have to wake up. I mean, it really has to wait. You really, really have to wake up. And everybody uses the word trade your plan, plan your trade. What is your plan? Like what is your plan? Right? What is your plan here? What are you trying to accomplish here? We have a macro universe of stocks, very, very aggressive, for the most part, upward bias, aggressive bias bull market for the last X amount of years, right? What is your plan with this? Do you realize if you close your eyes, right? If you close your eyes on an uptrending stock and data, right? Just close your eyes and just bought the stock at the high of date, you would have a higher, you would have a completely higher win rate than trading something like this, on the most part. Just think about that logically. I would never advise anybody to do so. But that's kind of the point. And, you know, at some point in your career, guys, and I say this and we'll kind of move on from here. You know, when you're looking at the market, okay, and it's something that you want to do for a living. Again, you don't need to agree with what I'm saying. You could have made money in this thing or this thing or any other thing that looks like this, right? Over the last several months, you're an idiot. Yeah, I know I'm an idiot. Everybody understands that. I'm an idiot. I'm the king of the idiots. But again, I don't want to hear about it three weeks after that you learn your lesson. You don't want to hear about it. This is right in front of you. If you can't see it yet in front of your eyes that you're wrong, and you're approached to the market, I can't even call it a process. But if your approach to the market is this, then your approach to the market is highly flawed. And at some point, you have to take personal responsibility and wake up because if you don't soon, there's not going to be much to talk about. So hopefully you guys, you know, if you made money in these things, God bless. If you lost money in these things, I hope you finally realize what you're doing wrong because again, if you continue to do so, it's just game over. It's just not an opinion. It's a fact. So let's talk about the market, right? Let's talk about the market. We talked about last week's video, the potential, not that it was going to happen, the potential of a roundabout top. And it played out that way for the most part. Okay, you can see it here, three days in a row, four days in a row, five days in a row of lower highs and lower lows. We saw that, right? So we got the back test and we didn't get the back test quite to the levels that I wanted. Okay, maybe we'll do that on Monday, although we'll talk about this in a few minutes. There are some really good setups here on the long side. But what I do like, what I noticed here on this back test here, that the market was still very, very tradable on both sides. Okay, when you're coming from levels of, quote, unquote, a V bottom, okay, and you're putting on a roundabout top. Again, something we talked about over and over again, you're still going to see periods in the market, periods in the day that you're going to have demonstrating weakness and demonstrating strength. So a lot of times, new traders will look at the indexes down to 300 points and still notice that majority of the stocks are not breaking down. Okay, or they're not breaking down to levels that are deemed shortable. They might be going down, but there's no advantage to the downside. And what we saw in the last couple of days were, you're finally, you saw that technical damage occur. If you've been watching these videos the last couple of weeks, we've been talking about this 171.76 level, what was the line in the sand and the cubes. And on Thursday, okay, we close below that, which basically triggered a cell signal, a macro cell signal in the market. And what happened was on Friday, and this is kind of where you adapt as a professional trader, what happened on Friday was 90% more than that, 90, probably 99% of my watchlist got completely blown up, right? Everything gap down. And the only problem Thursday into Friday session, I didn't want to get short because how many times have we've seen technical damage, especially coming from higher levels, occur only to the next day for the market to gap down. I just want to wrap up again and squeeze right back up. So, you know, as much as I saw the cell signal, I said to myself, you know what, I just don't want to take that chance. This last past week has been a really, really good aggressive week. I didn't want to take that chance. So what happened Friday is everything got down. The only thing that didn't get down was Tesla, right? Only thing didn't get down was Tesla. So our watchlist got completely blown up. The value of the day, at least for the morning session, got completely blown up. Now here's the problem. This is kind of where we really dissect the difference between somebody who's chasing something up 800% of the day or somebody's been doing this for a very long time, waiting for their value. What happened on Friday, for the most part, and again, there were some pivots and some pretty decent pivots and Tesla again is still the greatest stock ever. But the difference between a professional trader and somebody who is, let's be honest, the word is chasing. The next hot stock, the professional trader doesn't need to trade. So the personality and the thinking is from the aspiring traders, let's finish Friday off strong. Let's get it. The professional trader is sitting there and saying, well, it's Friday, let's see what we got. It's just the reality. And the two statements, you can see clearly, the two statements, one is excitable. One is excitable. One is anticipated. These are all levels of emotional rise. These are all things that professional traders want to completely remove, because when you're anticipating and you're forecasting and you're predicting and you're sensationalizing your mind, usually bad things are going to happen. A professional trader's approach every single day as well. I have my game plan. I have my sentiment. I have my opinion. I just need to wait for confirmation. That confirmation comes today. Great. That confirmation doesn't come today. You know what? Have a great weekend. I'll see you all Monday. And this is the mindset that you have to get. You can't teach that. You can't teach that. Experience is a major part of trading. Talent will get you so far. If you're a talent and you have a national grasp of trading, that'll be great as long as you don't do anything to yourself in the process for you to gain that experience. Experience with talent is an amazing trader. I don't have any talent. I have no talent at all. I'm the king of the idiots. But for somebody who picks something up very, very quickly, it takes me much longer to pick up the same thing. So experience is driving me more than talent. And my experience, as told me, is you don't trade because the market's open. You trade because you have a value. And Friday, we saw 99% of the watches blown up. No value left in the market. And by the way, we still didn't see any sphere to get the market even lower to the levels that it needed to be. So we had a choice. We had a very, very specific choice. Either sit there and participate in stupidity and derated setups and G-rated setups, or we wait for our stocks, see if they confirm, and hope the volume is enough. Now, what we saw on Friday in the beginning of the morning, we started seeing very contracting channels. That's a very big no-no, especially if you're trading ranges, right? There's not enough meat on the bone. What we saw Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday were monster, monster ranges, especially Tesla. Tesla is just phenomenal trading this week in Tesla to the short side, to the long side in the last couple of days. So Tesla continues to be just a phenomenal trading vehicle. But the question we had was, was there going to be enough juice, right? Was there going to be enough juice for us to kind of manufacture a run? Again, everybody wants to, quote, unquote, kill it and bank all these, you know, awesome keywords, the carrot dangling on social media keywords, right? Nobody, no professional trader uses these words. I'm telling you, as the day is long. So the only problem was to see how much value we had left in the day, and was there going to be enough ranges for us to kind of manufacture a run? And when you look at the pivots for the day, you look for the pivots of the day, and again, like I tell everybody, we don't pick and choose these things. Like, you know, we, you know, these are the pivots for the day. You can see it. This is the stock to its feet. This is the same thing that goes into the Twitter feed. This is the night before, right? This is the night before, and this is the new day. So this is how the days started out, right? There's no, excuse me, there's no picking and choosing. So we put these all pre-market and we wrote 7330, 73 on Tesla. If it builds below, it could flush. You know what? It never reached that point. So this one was off the list. This was my first trade of the day. I actually got caught, I didn't get caught, but I shorted Netflix. I shorted Netflix to this level. It went down like 50, 60 cents and the buyers came back in pretty quickly. So I lost about 75, 80 cents in the trade. No big deal. And then I shorted it on the remount. Once the count came back the right way. And again, when you're trading prior to 10 o'clock, you have to understand these channels are much more aggressive with the biggest potential for aggressive candles. They're also going to be the biggest potential to get caught as well. So I tried to tell, especially newer traders who are trading with pivots, kind of avoid before the 10 o'clock candle turn. Obviously, if you're a season pro, if you know what you're doing, you can handle the risk. It's not a big deal losing a buck in your first trade because you know you'll have the capabilities of making it back after the 10 o'clock turn. So I reshorted Netflix on the remount. It came back in. It went down like $1, $60, $50 or so. So I got back pretty much all my money, so forth and so on. So that was fine. And then the market got slow, really, really slow. So I started sitting there and I go, okay, well, let's see what we got here. So Costco, again, Costco wasn't a big move at all. I wasn't even watching Costco, but we talked about this pre-market. If it can start building above this $28.40, and it kind of just sat at the whole range. I actually still like it for Monday. If you look how tight this channel is, it looks pretty good. Big Lot, again, retailers came up with some pretty decent earnings. This is a Big Lot 3620 build. If they could reclaim it, it could go. If you look at Big Lot, again, here's the 3620, right? Here's the 3620. Here's the 3620, and it went to like $37.30. So $1 move on a $30 stock. Again, if you took the trade, great job. It's not really my thing, but God bless. Again, who might I say with the trade, everybody has different levels of comfortability. And this is kind of where we started to wait. Like, once you know I have Costco and Big on my list, you kind of know that the value in everything else is kind of diminishing. So we had to wait. This never triggered, right? This never triggered. And then finally came Facebook, right? Here finally came Facebook. And Facebook basically was a big buyer. And this is where we really started talking about option sweeps. And these option sweeps have been a godsend. And, you know, a big buyer came in out of the money calls on the Facebook, on the Facebook of 175 April. And you can see it. I tweeted out, put in the live webinar, all it needs to do is take out the 68, all it needs to do is take out the 6815 level. That was right over here, right over, what was it? 6815 level. And Bill started building about the 6815 level and the stock went to almost 170. Good job for you guys who caught that as well. Netflix, you know, Netflix, again, you can see what 348 is the level. If we could reclaim that, can give a push. Again, here's Netflix. Here's Netflix. Here's the 348 right here. It reclaimed, excuse me, right here, 348 right here. And then towards the end of the day, again, I was already done by the day by the time this happened. But again, a pivot is a pivot of pivot. It doesn't make a difference if I'm in the stock or not. It's going to go, right? So 348, 348 went to like 350. You know, it actually looks pretty decent for Monday. Let's see what else. Oh, so here is the trade. Again, so here is the trade. You know, again, I was pretty much a mindset that I was going to be done for the day. It was Friday. I was exhausted. I was pretty pleased with the week. But then again, Tesla came along, right? Tesla came along and I put this in the private Twitter feed. Obviously in the live webinar and stock to its feed. Tesla 280, if it reclaims, strong build, this thing can go. Okay guys, this is why I say this is the best stock ever. I mean, this is really, I really thought, you know, during 2003-2004, the Taser was the greatest stock ever until I met Tesla. So here is the highest supply, right? Here is this high supply here, 280, okay? And once it built, started building through 280, big, big push. I mean, really good push here, almost a $3 push. And then the stock came back in and Citron came out their comments later in the day. Again, at this point I was already done. This was after three o'clock. But again, as long as you sit there and wait and patient and don't deviate from your process and don't prostitute your process and don't have every intention of self-sabotaging your things, good things are going to happen because technically that's what you expect from these charts. And when you believe in technical analysis and you believe that the theory of stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, you're going to usually see what you expect out of these trades. And Tesla, again, continues to be just a really, really great stock. And then, you know, slowly but surely, here's some people tweeting into the stock twits here. Roku, big, big move on Roku, needs to reclaim 79, 90, 71 to go. Futures get better. And Roku just continues to be a monster. This really does. And here is the 70, 70, 90, right? 70, 90, 71 area. When right to supply it, 72, 21. Again, all you need to do is just wait for these things to get better. Amazon towards the end of the day here. Amazon 16, 16, 16, 17 needs to build. And again, you wait, you wait, you wait. Here's 16, right? Here's 16 right here. And stock clip went as high as the 1623 and flagging for Monday session as well. So again, guys, you can see here, nobody's trying to trick you, right? And this is technical analysis. Nobody's, you know, nobody's trying to cherry pick anything. This is what this is what we're doing. I mean, this is what we're trading literally the same stocks every single day. Okay. And there's a reason for that. It's very, very highly predictable. Okay. Institutional participation is represented aggressively and retail is not retail. While retail is chasing this, right, you're getting orderly moves in this, you're getting orderly moves in this. Now again, sometimes the stock will build 30, 40 cents and then come back in. You have no choice to kind of use break even as a stop. But the moral of the story is you're in control of your trading. Okay. You know exactly what you want. You're participating with institutional bias. And you are trading because the market's giving you value, not because the market is open. So guys, my biggest advice to new traders, if you want to do this for a living, just smarten up. Again, my offer used to say the greatest piece of advice he told me years ago. Okay. He didn't, you know, he didn't show me the, you know, the whole, the whole of Grail and Trailer. The biggest advice he always told me was, Dan, just don't trade like a putz. That's it. Don't trade like a putz. For all you guys who are joining us this week with via the live webinar, Morning Strategy starts up at 9 0 5 Eastern Time. And for all you guys are joining us on the live, on the live Twitter feed, they start going into, you know, into the channel roughly around the same time. So guys have an awesome weekend. You're blessed. You're alive. Somebody loves you. And again, it's all about the small moments of life and make things worth it. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all on the field tomorrow. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 Vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.