 Good morning and hope you're well. This is September 24 and I look forward to the session ahead. I cover off a few things in the briefing this morning. I think we saw what had to happen yesterday, in the first session of the week of course. One of two main points of note with anticipatediziw, is important to see plank character data from Europe. We'll look back at manufacturing and services, PMIs a'r cyfechydig o'r llaw ar gyfer gwaith, ac rwy'n cynnydd eich gwlad i'r gofyn o'r hyn oed i fath o gaelio gaelio gaelio'r ysgol ffysgol Fiziol. Mewn dweud i'r ddataeth oherwydd gaelio'r oes, dywed o'r sectorau fasnioli gyda enhymo o'r ysgol a'r ddorolaeth, maen nhw'n cael ei g�ianio cyffredin iawn i ei gaelio'r methu i'r cefnogi pob, a chenwch rymd yn ymdteidydd ymddir i gynnwysm iawn i gael eu cyntaf ar gyfer gweithio. Rwy'n gweithio i'n credu'r cymryd. Rwy'n dod o'r rhan o'r ddweud o'r ddweud o'r hyfforddiadau a chyrwbwyr o'r ddweud o'r rhan o'r Gweithio. Rwy'n wedi'n gweithio ar y sgwr o'r gweithio ymdweud. Rwy'n ddegwch chi'n ceisio ar gyfer Boris. Felly, rwy'n ddweud o'r gweithio i'r awdurdod ddweud o'r Llythydd. ac yn ystod, mae o'n gwneud y maen nhw'n adroddau a'r bwysig ar gyfer y maen nhw, ac mae'n rhai gweld ei ddweud y maen nhw i'r bwysig ar gyfer y maen nhw, ac mae'n adroddau a'r bwysig ar gyfer y maen nhw i gyrraffl? Wrth gwrs, yn ymweld iawn i'r awr yn fynd o gwathio ar gyfer y maen nhw, rwy'n gilydd o'r llan ymddangos ymddangos. Mae'r peth o'n ddim yn gweithio i'r bwysig ar gyfer y maen nhw, Mae'n gweithio cael ei wneud i'r ddweud i llawer o'r ymchwil yn y brifau yma, a rwyf yn credu i'n meddwl i'r ymweld. Dyma'r ymdindig o'r ffordd ddau ddweud i'r unig ddweud i'r eu ddweud i'r llyfr a'r ddweud i'r llyfridau ddweud i'r llyfridau ddweud, oherwydd mae'n rhaid i'r llyfridau i'r llyfridau i'r ddweud i'r llyfridau, i'n ddweud i'r 16, 17, 11 yma. Felly, ychydig eich bodi'n ddysgu'r ddodol, ddim yn ddodol i'r ddodol, i'w ddodol i'w ddodol yma'r sefydlu, ddim yn y dyfodol i amser ymddiol. Felly, mae'n rhan o'u gwybod i'r ddodol. Mae'n ddiolch i'r 111 ymddiol, yma'n ddodol i'r sefydliadau, ac yn ddodol i'r eich bodim iawn yn yng Ngheirwyr i'r 1-10-32, felly mae'n defny'n fwybod i'r ddodol, 60-70 pips ar y dynol, felly roeddwn ni'n gweithio... fel ydych chi, mae fyddiad yn fawr i'r eich anghymddion ac mae'n gweithio ar siaradau. Felly, mae'n gweithio'r cwmhwytaeth yma a'n gweithio'r fuddfa fy ngosodd ac mae'n gweithio'r ffigio'r PMI gan gweithio yma. Mae'n gweithio'n ymddangos o'i gymryd dros y mae'n gweithio'r PMI. Felly, we covered this live in the briefing yesterday morning, but as you can see, we had a print on the far right of this chart, 41.4, which basically is the worst reading for 10 years, so you've got to go back to right in the height of that global financial crisis a decade ago to find the last time that the German manufacturing PMI number was this bad. Ac byddwn ni'n ymdw i'w cymwyng, ac mae'n cymwyng yw 44, sy'n cyfrifiad yn eu cyfrifiad. Yn y cyfrifiad, mae'n cyfrifiad yn y cwrwm 50 o'r twfyn i'r llyfr yma'r cyfrifiad. A'r 49 o'r cyfrifiad yn y cyfrifiad yw'n cyfrifiad yn y cyfrifiad. Mae'r cyfrifiad yn y cyfrifiad arall. Ac mae'r cyfrifiad yn y cyfrifiad, yw'n cyfrifiad yn y cyfrifiad. See what I mean this move to 41.4 takes us definitely firmly below that 2012 low. And so Yep, it's a 10 year low in the crisis we did get down to 32 but certainly 32 is a number you won't see very often marry off the cold search was the extreme nature of that global crisis but so this was obviously bad news on the services side yn y cyfnod o Gerdd-Dean i'r cyfrifol, ond wrth gwrs mae'n gweithio i'r cyfrifol yma. Ynod o'ch bydd y ffordd yn maen nhw'n cyfrifol o'r cyfrifol. Yn gweithio ar y cyfrifol, mae'n olygu yn ymwyngau. Mae'n mynd yn ffynu sydd o'r diolch yn rhan fwy o'r ffordd yn ymwyngau. Felly, mae'n gweithio ar yr cyfrifol sydd yn ymwyngau bachio'n gweithio. Ond yw'r gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio cerdd-dean yn effeithio. Ac rwy'n erioed i'n ffigurio hyfforddiad gyda France, ac nid yw'r gwmwyselau eich cyfwyddaeth Eurozone PMI, cynyddiwch ym Mhongorol a'n Ffrance a dda Mhongorol yw ym Mhongorol yma. Am fawr yw ym Mhongorol yma sy'n y gweithio Cymrydd Ym Mhongorol a'r tomod ond hefyd ble creation of of the European data that Germany makes up, given the size of that economy. It's not a surprise that this dropped to a new ten year low as well. Dw i'n gweithio y peth eich ddweudio, hwnnw, mae'n ddweudio gweithio'n ymddangos. Byddwn ni'n gweithio'r rywfyrdd. Yn yng Nghymru, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio? Felly mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n ddweudio. Felly mae'n gweithio'n ddweudio'n gennym LGDP. Mae'n gweithio'n gwneud o'r quwataeth. yng Nghymru 1 yma yw 1.25-3, ac yn ystod yng nghymru at roedd yr oedd yn unig bwynt yn dweud. Mae angen i dechrau, yng Nghymru yw 1.25-2 yw negatif. Yn gynllunio, mae yng nghymru yn GdP a'r oedd yng Nghymru yw minus 0.1%. Mae'n byw'r pryn o'r pryn arall, ond rwy'n teimlad â'r reisio teulu yn cyd-reif yn y rôl, ond yng Nghymru yw negatif. It was really worried that Germany were in recession. If Germany and recession that was the core engine of the European economy. I will flick back to the charts to talk about how it has impacted someone on other assets. The Euro D value. It did rebound half of that selloff in the end, and we caught some key resistance at those lines we had drawn up. ac roedd y ddechrau feddwl yn dweud ar y ddweud yn y ddweud y 16 o 17 o'r ddweud yn Lloedd Cymru, gynnwys i'r ddweud yn Lloedd Cymru. Yr ydych chi'n gweithio'r gweithio'r ddweud yn ei ddweud ar y ddweud. Rym ni wedi bod yn ddechrau bod y prysgwyd cyhoeddau. Felly mae'r gweithio'r ddechrau, sy'n ddweud, yn cymdeithasol y dychysig o'r parwydd. The German equities take the biggest move to the downside Let's move just a couple of these lines We had this line out, drew a box on this when the German dax was selling off That back-of-the-data in the briefing yesterday Joy cutd this box to pick out the low from stealthiest September We broke nothing up at Wednesday Thursday double bottom at a new turned 33 ac rydym yn ddechrau'n gweithio. Dwi wedi'i gweithio'r dyfodol yn ddechrau'r ddweud. Rydym yn dweud o'r gweithio'r gweithio'r gweithio. Mae nesaf, roedd yn ei bod yn gwneud hynny. Mae'n rhan o'r maen nhw. Ond yw'r gweithio'r ddweud, mae yna'n dod yn y dddangos o'r ysgrifennu oedd yn yr hynod yng nghymru. Dwi'n ddateg o'r ddac o'i ddau yma yma o'r ymlaen. a ond, mae'n gafodd ac yn teimlo i obu am gyffredd y dyfodol yn ddechrau ar y dyfodol yma, felly'n gafodd yn ddags o'r cyhoeddion yn y dyfodol, ac mae'n ganddwch chi'n cael ei wneud yn yr ysgrifennu'n ei wneud. dyfodol y dyfodol yn ganddwch yn ffordd o'r cyhoeddion yn ddags, fel y dyfodol ei wneud yn ddags, include peirwyr hynod. The difference between the earning and spending, you're either going to have a budget deficit or a budget surplus most developed, certainly Western economies are running with deficits, that's where they're spending a little bit more than their earning and this is the concept of borrowing today to then invest in Meir Whe gefnognau gwylag oes. But Germany had definitely been taking a different path, and you could really say, they haven't had a deficit since back in the crisis, and even right at the worst point of the crisis, that deficit was only minus 4.2 per cent. Compare that to the likes of the US. The US almost hit minus 10 per cent in the crisis. Compare that to the casualties of the crisis like Greece. That deficit was more like minus 16 per cent. Economigly, Europe is very weak. Who is the biggest economy in Europe, is Germany. Germany is sat on this big fat surplus and are not spending it. They are not delivering any fiscal stimulus to try and stimulate economic activity in their own country. If they did do that, it would be quite a powerful stimulus for the whole of Europe. Ac, ei ddweud yn yr enwol, mae'n fwyaf ar gyfer y cyfnodau iawn. Mae'n meddwl, Oeddon Maria Draghi yn ffysgol yn ffysgol ffysgol a'r hollol ar y ddechrau. A'r bobl yn rhan o'r partyn yn y llwyaf ar y distan ffynol yn y dyfodol yng Nghymru, yn ffysgol o'r Llywodraeth Ysgol, ac yn y pethau'r eistedd yma, Ac yn ddechrau i'r wychon ni'n edrychw'r ystodwch ar gyflwyganwch hwnnw, a phall o'r lleonwch, ac yn dweud o daith o rhaid dweud. Felly mae gennym hynny. Mae gennym hynny yng nghyddon o'r f thirteen yna. Fe wnaethau yn ystod oetho ar creu mopod. Mae hynny'n ardal, oedd yn gwirionedd ffysgol ynghylch yn dda'r wychau ychydig. Mae cais y gail ffrwdyn nhw'n ei artistrach. ond o'r ardal ni. Felly mae'n iawn i'r Ddau Merchill. Mae o'n bach o'n ddau ffysgolig, ffysgolig, dylai, a'r prudent. Ond o'r prudence'r Ddau Merchill yn llysgol, yn ei ddefnyddio i'r ysgolig ar gyfer y regesio yn y ffysgolig, a'r ddau'n gweithio'r ddau'n ei ddau'n ddau'n ddau. Rwy'n gweithio eich hwnnw, ac mae'n ddau'n gweithio'r ddau, rwy'n gweithio'r ddau'n gweithio'r ddau, of October. We'll always start to hear noises out of the German government that we're going to see some kind of stimulus package. Is this a reason why the DAX actually in the end almost retraced a full sell-off yesterday? So I think certainly something to look out for in the weeks to come. Any German fiscal policy noises coming out of Frankfurt or Berlin then this could well have quite a powerful effect on European markets across the continent. It's something we've been waiting for. So I just want to put that on your radar and I need to talk about the Bund here and I'm going to bring and make this chart much bigger and this is German 10-year bonds and I want to bring this onto a weekly chart to put things into perspective. This market let me just mark up these kind of big major technical levels like the 2018 low for example and at 156.87 you got the October low from that year not too far away from that but certainly on the upside we had caught some key resistance in the quarter one 166.83 and then we had a powerful move to the upside okay. Now the ECB have just rolled out another rate cut they've just rolled out a restarting of their QE programme albeit only 20 billion a month but it is open-ended so this means buying more bunds and so that might drive the price to the upside of course that but I mean it's disappointing the amount that they've decided to restart QE with and you've seen this big correction back lower here for bunds but generally speaking bunds are right up at the top end I mean if I go to a monthly chart you'll see that once that loads you'll see that German bonds are right up at the very top end of their all-time ever highs let's just put it that way once we've broken that 2016 top at 168.95 this thing's just ramped aggressively higher all-time ever ever ever highs German 10-year yields into negative territory you know the remarkable scenario that Germany can borrow money for 10 years and get paid for it it is a a sign of our very unique times this chart but is this the top you know I have German bunds is this kind of multi decade rally is it over and then here's a thing to think about if German if the German government do roll out a fiscal stimulus package and they might not but if they do well then that's bullish right so you should expect German equities to benefit from that you should expect safe haven markets to be negatively impacted so you might see bunds moving lower off the back of a German fiscal stimulus package if they go ahead with a big package well then they're going to need to borrow more money which means issuing more bunds so you might see the supply of bunds increasing the supply goes up well the price goes down as well so that's a negative for German prices and then if this fiscal stimulus package actually works um and generates some growth well then we should expect some upside inflation and if inflationary pressures move higher then you know you're going to find the likes of the ECB not needing their QE program anymore and if inflation's higher yields move higher which means prices move lower um so there's some good arguments to suggest that if the German government roll out a fiscal stimulus package you may well see um a bit of a pivotal turning point for this bond market and maybe we'll see much things trending to the downside into year end and will we get back to that top from 2016 which would be the first key kind of price point from a technical perspective so i want to just put that German situation onto your radars you know picking up from that bad data from yesterday and what does it mean and what might that bring out of the German government in the weeks and months ahead so um that's yesterday the other thing from yesterday just to make sure we cover off the two important moments the other one was involving crude oil um where we had the Saudis coming out and let me just throw a box around the candle that i'm referring to we had a a sharpish sell-off around about half past 10 breaking the friday low and then moving down and actually briefly moving below wednesday's low from last week but as you can see it's recovered and we're kind of back chopping up around about where we were before the news so the news was just that the Saudis think they'll be back fully online fully operational production back to where it was pre drone strikes by the end of next week so that's the news there right let's have a look at the headlines what's been going on and let's look at the Bloomberg homescreen you've got Boris who's sort of featuring quite prominently and that's because he's been talking Brexit obviously at this UN general assembly he met with Merkel he met with Macron he met with tusk not very little news flow out of that meeting other than tusk tweeting no breakthrough but no breakdown time is short so that's pretty much all we got so just suggesting that they met they chatted they didn't make much progress but you know at least it didn't um you know at least the meeting didn't break up in acrimony but obviously just re-emphasizing the fact that time is definitely running out one thing that um Boris is going to do today so it's quite a pivotal day for Boris because at 10 30 am we'll get the supreme court ruling as to whether his prorogation his his uh suspending of parliament was legal or not and so they're going to make this ruling at 10 30 am so keep your ear to the ground um the specular i mean obviously your pro-remainers they're saying well Boris is going to obviously have to resign you know if he's basically lied and misled the queen into uh suspending parliament it's it's unforgivable and he's going to have to step down and resign um Boris isn't going to resign uh there's no way okay so that anybody hoping for that um i think are not thinking rationally um so what's going to happen well Boris will have to be forced into reconvening parliament and you know what will happen then well i mean we're almost into October anyway as it is but you could argue it might give more time to the um proromaners to kind of work behind the scenes and on the back benches to further disrupt um Boris's um sort of plan if it is his plan uh to leave the EU with no deal so we'll see but i honestly i don't think in the grand scheme of things it will actually change much i mean from a market reaction point of view i mean maybe let's talk about that and i'll bring cable into the mix here we've had some dollar strength um really from the kind of midler last week in the end um and we had some dollar strength really because well you i guess you would say that that ffomc meeting last week um showed that the ffomc had divided and that it wasn't a unanimous decision to cut rates again and that therefore kind of introduces the idea that maybe you know the chances are more rate cuts let's say december cuts uh the chances might have reduced and so a little bit of dollar strength yesterday we had a move lower for cable more i'd say more than anything in sympathy with the euro dollar move to the downside so a bit of a correlated move off the back of those euro zone pmi figures that were disappointing and then it's been very flat and very sideways and we're just waiting here you know what's the supreme court going to say what's boris going to say um in terms of the initial reaction is a tricky one i mean i'd say probably more than anything you'll probably get sterling on the upside um if the supreme court votes that the prorogatio was illegal i actually don't think it'll be a massive event from a market point of view but yeah probably some upside just because you know the simple argument should be in the 125 handles a good target that was key support on friday we broke it yesterday and i'd be looking there for that for a target on the upside which isn't very far away i mean it's only 30 pips from where we are now but perhaps a break up back above 125 and this is because you could argue if it's illegal if parliament have to reconvene then boris's ability to take the uk out of the EU with no deal is reduced potentially but i don't see big fireworks off the back of this announcement and anyway they might say that it is legal in which case fine we carry on um and we carry on and what boris is doing he's timing a speech today from new york um to try and put some more headlines on the spectrum um to try and you know distract attention away from the supreme court ruling and what he's going to say is actually a little bit controversial from the europeans point of view because he's going to start to say that he he thinks that you know we should he's going to be very bullish about brexit and he's going to say right we should take full advantage of our new freedoms and he's going to talk about how um we should change policy in order to diverge away from the EU to form a competitive advantage and how we should cut corporation tax for example to try and attract in foreign investment um we should relax regulation in certain areas making you know what he wants to do is make it very attractive for us and canadian businesses and students and um you know technically high skilled individuals to come to the uk to enjoy the benefits now obviously that's very bullish for the uk right but um europe aren't going to like that i mean tereza mays deal part of that was a commitment to make sure that the uk stays aligned with the EU in in a whole bunch of different areas um obviously the last thing that EU want is brexit is the uk leaving and then the uk you know diverging away from europe forming a significant sort of economic competitor right on europe's doorstep that's the last thing they want so if boris if he is going to do what he says then the chances of a deal before the 31st of october reduce um also the chances of a trade agreement being agreed after brexit i'd say again become way more difficult so whilst boris might be bullish and making all the right noises and it will definitely um you know the nationalists will love it um brexiters will be cheering in the streets but actually i think it will make the ability for us to do a deal with the EU a lot more difficult so um more see so borrow you know expect plenty of plenty of brexit chat certainly this morning 10 30 am key moment um the supreme court rules and then boris is going to be making some speeches out in new yw York okay all right what else um so trump let's talk about trump he's trump's in in trouble or is he um there's so many times trump has the impeachment risk i don't know how many impeachment risks we've had since he took office but it's definitely record territory for a us president so this is a new story you've probably have read about it already but the democrats have been saying that trump has been using his office um to try and influence the election next year and what he's done is he's been apparently according to the democrats remember um of course they're going to say this apparently he's been withholding 400 billion sorry 400 million dollars of military aid to the ukraine and he's been withholding it because he wants the ukrainian president to investigate into something that happened a few years back when joe biden was vice president under obama apparently according to trump joe biden forced the ukrainians into firing a prosecutor who was looking into the business dealings of a certain company in ukraine who joe biden's son uh who named his name is hunter biden happened to be on the board so hunter biden has got business dealings in the ukraine one of his businesses was under investigation apparently joe biden forced the ukrainians into firing the prosecutor now trump's withholding aid in order to force the ukrainians into investigating this and obviously from trump's point of view he wants all of this to come out into the open because joe biden happens to be one of his key challenges for the election in 2020 and so the election uh fighting is definitely begun and unfortunately the elections are not for another 14 months so um just strap yourselves in it's going to be an ugly fight it always is when trump's uh one of the uh competitors so um the point here is that nancy polosi is the kind of head of the democrats if you like um she's always been of the opinion that look let's not go down the road of trying to impeach trump because it'll just fire up his nationalist supporters and it'll come probably backfire but actually even she's now pushing towards the idea that this particular situation has gone beyond any reasonable behaviour and that maybe we should be moving towards some kind of impeachment scenario so look this is a story that's flared up you know what um from experience uh if we just look at markets and i said to you earlier markets don't don't care they really don't care we've seen these things happen i don't know how many times and yes it's going to be all over the headlines for sure but unless trump actually gets impeached and i don't think that's even possible because the republicans control the house they control the senate and so i actually don't think even if the democrats want it it's not going to be possible so really i think this is just headline noise it's just part and parcel of this election campaign that's now up and running in earnest so i don't think markets really care so the s&p's chopping around the 3000 handle but the markets do care about is sorry i wasn't showing you my chart there here's the s&p very sideways actually when you're looking at it back over the last week or so uh consolidation now uh what they do care about is much more you know things related to the us-china trade war and we've had some positive news on that overnight this is why the s&p's just popped up through this 3000 handle the news being that we had some kind of lower level talks on this trade agreement last week which was now it's been announced is ahead of what are then more top level talks which are going to take place in washington next week okay so we have another round of negotiations happening next week of course just the fact that there are some negotiations is a positive but you know how this goes um i don't know how many negotiation rains they've had now i mean i literally don't know 10 20 30 and of course all of them have in the end it's the kind of groundhog day um where it kind of breaks down any hint of it breaking down trump starts getting aggressive on twitter and then ramps up some aggressive threats on tariffs and then goes ahead and increases tariffs and then the chinese go all right fine let's start negotiating again and the the groundhog day begins so at the moment again markets have become decentralized to this and uh the s&p at the moment is just chopping around 3000 and where is the s&p gonna go let's look at the daily chart because what's the next big thing because we're right up here we're right up here at all-time highs that high in july is the all-time top okay we're right up at the top and haven't we got all these risks you know the trade war risk isn't europe in recession and all the rest of it well central banks have turned very dovish and that's certainly been the catalyst to take the s&p back to the top but we've got quarter three endings so we're going to have quarter three earnings season and that'll get going in october and that'll be an important update to see just how corporate america is faring but you know it's about the fed are the fed going to cut in december and the chart i mean looking at the meeting from last week this may be not and if the fed don't cut then this market is not going to stay at the all-time highs the only reason it's up here is because the fed is cutting the fed stopped cutting the market will not be up here and we'll be way more worried about the risks such as the u.s trade war risk with china okay so i say it's mostly about the federal reserve where this market goes over the next three months um all right just finally just to cover off i think i've mentioned everything i want to talk about the other thing was the other thing i guess to finish on let's have a look at the data calendar for today so let me just change up my screenshot here and have a little look and the key moment will be in uh 15 minutes time where we're going to get more german data so the german iphone number the business climate the the sorry the iphone expectations component is the most important we're expecting 91.8 which would be a slight increase on last month's 91.3 i am going to very quickly show you the chart for this because it is a really important german number and we're nervous about it given the fact that um actually i'm not sure do the do trading economics cover this all right i'm not going to show you the chart um but it's definitely an important number and we're nervous it's going to be more bad news given what happened yesterday with the pmi reading to keep your ear to the ground for that 9am most important data of the whole day um uk supreme court ruling at 10 30 um world leaders arriving at the un that's going to be at one o'clock so when they're arriving this is when the press shoves some microphones in front of their faces and you can get some throw away comments that might be important so certainly any of the key brexit players certainly donald trump the ukrainian president you know what are they going to say about this latest scandal um all the rest of it this afternoon most interesting data out of the u.s is consumer confidence um this will be at three o'clock and we're expecting this like drop from last month's figure um and then in terms of speakers really busy week for monetary policy speak so you can see here we've got some e cb guys and carnies talking at 415 um at the world economic forum um we want to see you know is is the bank of england going to cut rates in quarter four um so that's the lineup for the session that's it for the briefing guys enjoy your trading days thanks very much