 This is the SF Productions podcast network It's the 6th annual Oscar predictions show From the pop culture bunker I'm in and I'm Mark you can check out our audio podcast how I got my way three comics on iTunes or in our website SF podcast network comm well. It's that time again Oscar predictions Our system as always is we don't see the nominated films We see who won the awards leading up to the Oscars We say who has the most buzz and now a new category. Are there any controversies with a whole me-too thing? Your your whole Oscar campaign can be derailed very quickly very quickly Now the Oscar rules pretty much are if you died you're in yes Biopics rule portraying an illness works well and multiple nominations without a win always helps. Yes So we're gonna list the previous Oscar record where applicable and that's in terms of nominations and then wins as well as odds as of the 23rd of February based on an average from Nyser odds dot co dot UK, which is actually a Meta site of various other betting sites All right starting with Supporting actor William Defoe's two nominations zero wins six to one odds This is all for the Florida project He won the New York's Critics Choice Award Woody Harrelson two nominations zero wins and 37.5 to one odds for three billboards outside ebbing Missouri Richard Jenkins He it got one nomination and zero wins. He's 19 to one odds for the shape of water Did he play the monster? I don't believe he did okay, and Christopher plumber He's gotten nominated twice and won win 23.5 to one odds for all the money in the world, but just as an aside That one is a real tricky one. Yes because he replaced someone at the last I mean they had to reshoot. Yes the film. Yes, so I think that kind of gives him an in a little bit I mean, you know other actors have to recognize that this was difficult. Oh, absolutely Then finally Sam Rockwell zero nominations his first time a 1.1 to 1 odds for three billboards outside ebbing Missouri, and he got the Golden Globe He got Critics Choice and he got the SAG award and Both of us are picking Sam Rockwell, you know as an aside there Normally if there's two actors nominated from the same movie, right? They tend to split the vote a little bit So I'm not quite sure if that's gonna work, but he's just been overwhelmingly the favorite so right and the fact that Harrelson has such lower odds of winning Yes, so I think that kind of negates the split potential split vote Yes, so for supporting actress the nominees are Mary J. Blige who has zero nominations and zero wins and She's nominated for mudbound. I don't know that I've even heard much about this movie 21 to 1 odds Then we have Allison Janney nominated for I Tanya Allison has zero nominations for Oscars and zero wins, but she's won lots of Emmys and One to one odds and she's won the the Golden Globe the Critics Choice and the SAG awards already That's a pretty good run. Yep Leslie Manville again no previous nominations So no previous wins twenty three point five to one odds on phantom thread Laurie Metcalf zero nominations and zero wins 4.7 to one odds on Lady Bird and You know since Allison took all the other awards these haven't won any right Octavia Spencer has been nominated twice in one once She's got 30 to one odds for the shape of water And again, she didn't win any previous awards for this either I think as Allison Janney is just such an overwhelming favorite that we all have to pick her to win, right? Plus, it's a biopic. Yeah, there you go Okay animated movie Boss baby at 23 to one odds The breadwinner 14 to one odds never even heard of it Coco one to one odds Golden Globe Critics Choice producers Guild New York Critics Association all winning Ferdinand at 42 to one and loving Vincent at 18 to one. We both picked Coco I think that some of these are just too overwhelming to go against The common consensus. Yeah, so for original song Mighty River from mudbound has 16 to one odds mystery of love from call me by your name I'm always hard to say the name of that movie as 14 to one odds. Remember me from Coco has 1.5 to one odds it won the Critics Choice Award stand up for something has 23 to one odds That's from the movie Marshall and this is me has 2.7 to one odds and that's from the greatest showman and it won the Golden Globe So what do you pick mark? I am picking this is me from the greatest showman I think that's because it has this message of inclusion and The political correctness the environment right now. I think that's why they're gonna go with that Yeah, now a lot of times this always does go to an animated movie Maybe because there's more actual songs and animated movies. The greatest showman is a musical so it does Go there, but I picked Coco the song from Coco. All right moving on to director Christopher Nolan three nominations and zero wins 7.5 to one odds for Dunkirk Jordan Peele zero nominations his first time out 46 to one odds for get out Greta Gerwig also her first time out 13 to one odds for Lady Bird Paul Thomas Anderson nominated six times and never won 84 to one odds for Phantom Thread and Guillermo del Toro He's been nominated once no wins 1.1 to one odds for the shape of water So if we were looking at the whole nominated thing and not winning yeah, well, then it would be Paul Thomas Anderson Yes, but he's not gonna win right and Del Toro won Golden Globe. He won the critics choice and he won the director's Guild Awards by the way Sean Baker for the Florida project won the New York critics choice, but he wasn't even nominated for an Oscar So, what are you going for? well, I'm going to I'm going to Spit at common wisdom here, and I'm gonna pick Greta Gerwig Okay, because there's been so much choice talk about women directors Yeah, I think maybe some of them will just vote for her cuz she is a woman Hmm, I don't know. Well, I'm going with the the common track here and saying Del Toro is gonna win So moving on to Actor actor Timothy Shalamet has zero noms and zero wins 17.5 to one odds for his role in call me by your name He won a New York's Critics Circle award for that Daniel Day Lewis has been nominated five times and won three times, but he has 26 to one odds for his role in phantom thread Daniel Kaluuya First time nominated 19 to one odds for get out. I'd really like to see him win that I don't think he will no Gary Oldman has One nomination in zero wins. He has even odds to win for darkest hour He won the Golden Globe the critics choice and the SAG award and finally we have Denzel Washington At eight to one odds. No, that's eight eight win eight nominations in one win For his role in Roman J. Israel Esquire His odds are forty seven to one. Yeah, so not a good outlook there We both picked Gary Oldman staying with the standard. I think that's pretty much a lock. Mm-hmm best actress Sally Hawkins with one nomination in zero wins and 16 to one odds for the shape of water Francis Francis McDormand for nominations zero wins 1.1 to one odds for three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri She has pretty much won most of the lot here Golden Globe the Critics choice and the SAG awards Margot Robbie her first time out three thirty three to one odds for I Tanya even though it's a biopic Sarsha Ronan Two nominations zero wins ten to one odds for Lady Bird and Meryl Streep 20 nominations three wins. She is 59 to one odds for the post I kind of think Meryl gets nominated for whatever she's in now You know, they pick a movie that she's in that year nominator No, yes, she was an automatic spot By the way, Shashi also won the Golden Globe and she was able to do that because there are two different Film awards in the comedy and drama exactly and she also won New York's Critics Choice However, we're both going with Francis Francis McDormand. Yes Then we have the big award best picture. Yep. There's lots of nominees Yes, there are call me by your name has 84 to 1 odds of winning darkest hour is even worse at 150 to 1 Duncork is 37 to 1 get out is 16 to 1 Lady Bird is 12 to 1, but it actually won the Golden Globe Again, that's a comedy drama situation right? Yeah, the New York Critics Circle and the Central Ohio Films Critics Association Okay, that coveted award Yeah The Phantom Thread has odds of one forty one to one the post a hundred nine to one the shape of water is two point four to one and it won the Critics Circle Award and the Producers Guild of America, right and then last nominee is three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri with 1.8 to 1 odds. It's the favorite it won a Golden Globe and it won the SAG award So mark, what did you pick? I'm going with three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri And I did that a because it's the the best odds and also because it also makes a political statement And now they're big on making political statements in these movies and I picked Lady Bird because again, I'm thinking that the whole Women's Movement thing is gonna kick in and give it for Greta and that sort of thing. Yeah, I don't know Well, we'll find out. Yeah, and maybe we'll eventually watch some of these movies By the way, I really enjoyed Black Panther So you should go see a movie and after that you can check out our audio podcast how I got my wife's read comics on iTunes or on our Website sfpodcastnetwork.com from the pop culture bunker. I'm Mindy and I'm Mark Thanks for watching and I'd like to think wait. Don't play me off