 Delightful night in sports ahead because we have not just 10 games in the NBA, but also a nice little five game slate over in the NHL and who better to prepare us for tonight's action than Tom Vecchio. We'll have Tom on to break down both the NBA and the NHL, get his thoughts on the best night, best bets on the board over at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom does prop work for us over at NumberFire. I also host our NBA DFS podcast, The Daily ISO. Tom sounds like it is a fun night in the NBA, fun, mildly sarcastic. So how are you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, fun is one way to put it. There's a lot of injuries tonight. You know, number of teams on the second night of a back to back. The potential for Anthony Davis returning for the Lakers. He's been out since mid-December, early December whenever it was. So there's a lot going on tonight. I'm in a very lucky spot where I play NBA DFS is like a luxury thing. So if I look at the injury report and see that it is an A headache, I just lock out for the night. And I feel like that is an ideal spot to be in as someone who doesn't need NBA DFS to prop things up. I can just lean on other stuff and be like, I'm not going to deal with this. I don't want to sit around my computer until 10 o'clock, checking in actors and stuff like that. So I have the privilege that I'm very honored to hold. Yeah, that's always a luxury. Things change late swap, especially with the West Coast games. But obviously, that's where you can find a massive edge. And it's also where you can find a massive edge in the prop market. If lines are posted and a player gets ruled out and you had an overwall for the other player, that line moves up. And also you had a mid-27, now that line is up at 30. So you're going to break it spot. Yeah, absolutely. So we'll break down some spots, try to find some spots that we like. As of now, it is about 10 o'clock in the morning on Wednesday and break down Tom's favorite bats are both NBA and NHL later on today. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast or NFL conference championship. First look went up on Monday, broke down Patrick Mahomes injury, broke down my thoughts on Chiefs Bengals and 49ers Eagles, couple money lines. And like there, we'll talk more about that tomorrow with Ryan Williams. We'll also have some prop discussion with Brandon Dula coming up on Friday. So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast. And you can also find these episodes up on the Fandall YouTube page if you want the video version instead. The NFL playoffs are here and the easiest way to get into the action is the Fandall America's number one sports book. 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Restrictions applies to terms of sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in Arizona 1-800-next-step or text next-step to 533-42 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-109 with it in Kansas and Wyoming 1-105-224-700 Oregon Kansas KS gambling help.com Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at 1-889-9789 now let's kick things off here with the NBA we do have a couple of nationally televised games for time we got these the nets at the 76ers we got the Grizzlies at the Warriors Tom and people are watching those games any bets you like across those two specifically well as of right now Dwell indeed is listed as questionable for the 76ers so there are no props that I'm seeing for the 76ers players so this so first off right from the jump I think five points for the nets is pretty good right now if and be gets ruled out would not be a surprise to see that drop to three to two somewhere around there so huge note for the 76ers how does that impact things if he's out well we could be looking at James Harden who would play in even further a further increased role in their offense if indeed were to be ruled out so a PRA bet for Harden would be very much on the table with his ability to push towards a triple double as he's always been known to do over the course of many years but also if indeed is ruled out this should make an easier path for Nick Claxton the starting center for the Brooklyn Nets who is routinely putting up big games right now he's 30 is the third shortest odds for defensive player of the year he's taking a big step forward for the Nets he's I think he's plus 700 for defensive player of the year but a rebounding prop for Claxton would be pretty solid right now it's at nine and a half minus 128 I don't love the odds if that were to change just a little bit maybe a little bit closer to even money minus 114 minus 106 somewhere around there I'd have a little bit more interest but that means the 76ers could be starting PJ Tucker at center and that is just a size mismatch in the favor of Claxton so that would be a spot I'm absolutely targeting for the Nets again plus five things a little bit much right now especially if indeed is ruled out look to Harden and then Claxton rebounding prop is the Claxton one something you would avoid if indeed it winds up being confirmed as in or is this one you like regardless it's not it's not one that I'm like avoiding it's just like PJ Tucker is I think he's six nine six eight and Claxton is seven foot or seven one but they just run PJ Tucker out at center so it's just it's just a mismatch in terms of like the actual on court stuff where PJ Tucker is not a center but he's literally not a six five according to him so in shoes he's like you know six seven or whatever it is but Nick Claxton is seven feet so and Doc Rivers just likes to run PJ Tucker out at center just because they the way they play they play small move the ball with Harden to buy Sarah's tires maxi so it is literally just the seismic smash in favor of Claxton so that's what I would like but just one I still think it's a good bet yeah one way to cut the juice back a bit is you can just look in the alternate market 10 plus rebounds which is actually the exact same number is minus 125 so a bit better it's a reminder this is with strikeout props to always check the alt market and check the same number as if you can get a better number because sometimes you can it will slip through the cracks so I would check alternate markets as well see if you can get a better number on a 10 plus rebounds on Claxton or something of that nature so those we're looking in the the nests and 76ers any other bets you like for grizzlies versus warriors yeah really really like this match if I and the over under should tell you what we're going to see it's up at 244 and a half this is very very high we're dealing with two very fast paced teams the note for this game is that the grizzly starting center Stephen Adams is going to be out for three to five weeks with a PCL injury which means they will have new starting lineup which either means Xavier Tillman is going to be in the starting is the new starting center or they're going to have jaren jackson jr who is currently the odds on favor to win defense player of the year as their who's normally their power forward would shift over to center if they run things small against the warriors which is not a surprise uh just you know the way the warriors play dream on green at center again he's on a true center all these defensive matchups so love the scoring potential from this game number one bet for me would be desmond bean uh shooting guard from the grizzlies right now his three point prop is sitting at two and a half and it's minus 146 on the over don't love that prefer to go to bane four plus three pointers at plus 180 because the grizzly because the warriors are in the bottom ten of the league for the most three pointers allowed per game to their opponents now when we look at desmond beans game log it's very clear that he has this potential where three two five three five four three four three pointers made over his last stretch of games which and he's shooting three corners at very high volume you know four six eight upwards of ten in some of these games so with this high paced over under there's just gonna be so many possessions that he should have the chance to get there him getting to over two and a half is is a pretty solid bet based on his consistency as i just noted that he's been doing but i don't love minus 146 it's just this you know dynamic of he can probably get to three but i don't like the 146 with this game environment being up at 244 and a half you can probably just get to four so that is a spot that i'd be willing to go with bane the implied odds of minus 146 59.4 percent the implied odds at plus 180 are 35.7 percent so you're getting much lower implied odds obviously doesn't need to get one additional but it's only one additional made three and obviously made threes are a pretty volatile market but that's also not a bad thing if you're getting if you are benefiting from that volatility and getting a bigger number so plus 180 i think does make sense for bane again the number you mentioned over two and a half minus 146 there but then the alt market uh four plus is plus 180 for desmond bane so he's the primary target for you in this game yes absolutely just the way their offense has been running he consistently goes for you know 20 plus real 20 plus points it's not always from three pointers but he's that secondary score behind john marant okay well let's open things up then a lot of other games on this slate first night in the NBA hopefully some with some uh less ambiguity like the joel mb dindry but where is the same value in the NBA right now well less ambiguity i wish i had a better answer for that but denver is plus eight right now it was seven and a half like 30 minutes ago uh it's plus eight right now denver is the number one team in the west they're on the road they're visiting the walkie box who are two or three in the east denver is on the second night of a back to back so just given this match up eight seems like a pretty big number for the team that is the second best or for the team that's number one in the west on the road versus the team that's you know one of the best teams in the east it just seems like a little bit too high of a number the the concern that i have is is why i'm hesitant on it but an ultimate high of interest is yokich played last night for the nuggets he missed the two most recent games the hamstring injury but he did play last night he dropped a triple double last night so eight seems like a little bit much if yokich is playing if they're good to go how is the best team in the west this much of an underdog against who's all basically an equally as good team if not a little bit worse so i'm like really really hesitant on this match because to me it's saying is and is yokich actually going to play i think what they're kind of doing most likely is that they're middling it where they had the number with yokich in there and the number without and then kind of take the odds that he plays and use that formula the line i think that's probably they do that you see that sometimes with like ambiguous quarterback situations where they kind of middle it i would not be shocked if that's what's occurring right now with this yeah so i'm if everyone's good to go i would i'd be taking den for 10 times out of 10 right but they're on the second night of a back to back um bucks are getting fully healthy where they had attempt to go and chris middleton returned to line up in their most recent game they dropped 150 points against the pistons their most recent outing so and you know middleton should be on the path to seeing more minutes uh you know getting back from his injury so i'm just kind of at a loss for this game yeah that would be number one and then from a proper perspective al perin sangoon the starting center for the houston rockets over 29 and a half points plus rebounds sitting at minus 106 he's been over in threes last five he's probably on one of the best stretches of his uh very young career good match up going up against the wizards again a team attack via center wizards on the second night of a back to back they're a little bit shorthanded there's no christops porzingis should make things a little easier for al perin sangoon who is getting over this mark in some of these games by points alone and and his double double potential is there every night so singoon over 29 and a half points plus rebounds tonight now that has shifted up to 30 and a half uh it's minus 113 on the over is that moving enough to scare you off does that erase the value or is that still a good number in that that's still a good number okay wizards are going 24.2 points per game to centers that's the fifth worst of the league and over 14 rebounds per game to centers which is right around the league average so i'm all aboard sangoon tonight okay so the points plus rebounds number 30 and a half right now vandal sportsbook minus 113 on that one then tom is also keeping an eye on the nuggets uh stuff because you know seems a little bit odd uh with the plus eight right now but are you going to take that now and risk yokich not playing or yeah yeah they uh i mean jamal murray had a big hit of triple double the night when yokich was out there i mean they're still the best team in the west they're still winning games when yokich is not there okay it is a very tough match this is probably one of the tougher matchings that they had against you know would be have against the box without yokich but they're still a good team okay so nuggets plus eight despite the risk of yokich potentially being up in the air for tonight let's shift our focus now over to the nhl side of things and he talked about some uh some sides on the nba side of things but you also do a lot of sides totals etc on the nhl side so let's start there we'll get to player props in a second but when you look at the traditional markets on the nhl side what are you liking for tonight uh one would be the maple leafs hosting the new york rangers over six minus 104 uh this is always i want to say kind of a good spot because you always can you always can get a push which isn't the worst thing in the world that's you know it's a win in my eyes i get a push um rangers are a team that are under producing right now in offense uh you know last last week when i was on talking about goals and expected goals and how you can look to capitalize on that over the past two weeks the rangers are scoring 1.51 goals per 60 minutes in 55 situations which is the third worst in the league which is just not good but if we look at their expected goals in that same time frame they should be up at 2.66 goals so they're under producing by over a full goal which is pretty pretty big and the leaves are already a good offensive team but they're actually under producing as well they are producing 2.52 goals and they their expected goals are up at 3.2 so they're also under producing now we do have two good goal tenders on both sides but we actually see the leaves dealing with some injuries on defense and they're over producing on defense right now where if we match up their goals against current goals against at 2.16 goals and their expected goals against it should be at 2.93 so they're over producing on defense by 0.8 of a goal i like to round it up to one so we have these we have an offense that is under producing with the rangers that should be trending up we have a defense with the leaves that is over producing should be turning down and we already have a strong offense with the leaves that actually should even be be even better so it does set up for a game that ends for three right which it would which is really what we should see with the offense of players that we have on both sides uh yeah uh over six is minus one ten now at vandal sportsbook i can see a plus 105 out there right now though over six my bet did get rejected on plus 105 so maybe there's something wrong with that um but regardless you can still get a good number on over six if you are looking around for that one anything else in the sides totals market for you in this on this slate yes seattle kraken at home uh in regulation the 60 minute line at minus 120 the normal line is minus 178 i prefer to take him at 120 uh the vancouver canucks are not a good team they fired their coach over the weekend and replaced him with uh they their first game yesterday under their new head coach come back win against the chicago black hawks last night which means they're on second i have a back-to-back uh the kraken are just the better team kraken the league's newest team uh the expansion team they've actually proven to be very very solid this year and basically every category they would want in terms of shot creation shot prevention goals scored uh you know they didn't impress a lot of people last year but they took a lot of players in the expansion draft that you know like i would classify as like bb plus players where none of them are superstars but they're all really solid and they do everything correctly and that proved to be the way to do things and with some signings in the off season they are one of the shrugger teams in the west so i will take them at home minus 120 against a team that is on the second i have a back-to-back with lineup changes and players moving up and down their lineup because the new coaching staff and all these sorts of things where sure you get your first one under a new head coach but how much does that translate going up against an actual good team not playing chicago as they did last night in chicago has their eyes set on the draft right um minus 120 as you said is that number on uh the kraken to win in regulation to win it in 60 minutes on that side okay uh let's open up the problem market here for you on the nhl side what do you see in there going back to the Leafs and the rangers game william nielander over three and a half shots that's at plus 106 he's been over this mark in eight out of his last 10 games he plays a he's arguably having the best year of his offensive career and he is a primary shooter for them and this is one of the things that i alluded to last week when saying you kind of got into a player's role when you're looking at things and you know one of the sites that i use is called dailyfaceoff.com which has updated lines and power play units so when you know when i talk about like overlapping things where it's like okay we have a good offensive team they're going up against a weak defensive team it's like i also want to take a player that's on the top six of their forward lines and who sees power play time now as i mentioned we don't want to adjust for power power play time in terms of goals but it's more about the player's role and that he is having extra ice time in the best possible scenario to to shoot and to score do all these things so nielander awesome offensive year primary shooter for them top six and first power play role checks literally every single box in a game that i expect to hit the over right so this pace should be back and forth right and it's a correlated market too because if you expect over six you are kind of expecting a lot of shot volume um you are expecting um you know a lot of chances and that translates here to the over three and a half uh three over three and half again is plus 106 on nielander over at fangirl sportsbook the total shifting once again i'm not sure if there's been some news in this game or something but it keeps moving around so it's been a chaotic market my back are ejected again just in case i now see over six at plus 100 i don't know man it's all over the place um i'm annoyed that this the kraken one wouldn't go through either so i don't know if there's anything wrong with red island sportsbooks infrastructure shocker who could have guessed that would possibly ever happen uh anything else you like for tonight tomasides nielander one the last one would be mad barzell on the new york islanders to record and assist now this is a little bit specific um there's a number of different markets when it comes to the player prop sheet there's the shots the goals there's points which would encompass goals or assist and then you can look at specifically assist or specifically power play assist and this is obviously like narrowing things down and the more you narrow things down the more value you can get so as i mentioned last week again islanders not a great offensive team but this is an immensely easy matchup against the senators the senators over the last two weeks allowing 3.89 goals per 60 minutes five and five situations that's the second worst in the league so they are in terrible defense despite the lack of offense at times we see from the islanders this is still a good matchup so when it comes to barzell over half a point is sitting at minus 144 but if we look to specifically the assist market over half an assist is sitting at plus 122 so he's more of a playmaking center rather than a pure shooter so if he's going to be getting a point it's probably coming via an assist rather than a goal where if you would look at him or the the typical profile of him would be whatever amount of goals he has he probably should be aiming to have like two x the amount of assist like that's just the role he plays he's not a he's not connor mcdavid where he's just going to be pouring in the goals he's more of a playmaker so if he has a point it's probably going to be an assist i might as well go for plus 122 now if he has a hat trick it has no assist amount of luck but i think that's the part of like identifying a player's role and extracting as much value as possible that's where it really comes in handy yeah i mean you're going through this process of checking boxes identifying good situations target and then you have options so for you let's say you're like okay i like the spots uh that's uh the islanders are in for tonight or whatever it may be i'm gonna go through players i think have good roles and then check each market are you going through that or are you like specifically seeking out assist for someone like this and kind of seeing what the number is there it's it's more of the ladder or it's it's more of a combination where i know a player's role so someone like uh like like i mentioned jason robertson last week or someone like um the canes played tonight and one of my favorite players on the canes his name is andres fechnikov he's a basically a pure shooter he's like a minnow vetchkin where if he has a point it's probably gonna be a goal he's a high volume shooter so if i go to him it's probably only for a goal now yes he does play in the top six he does play on the power play so he also can fall into assist but i'd rather just go for the goal of the role that he should be playing okay yeah i think that makes a lot of sense the good thing is you do have outs like let's say you don't like the number somewhere with the bars all one like let's say you know you don't like the points number as you said you have other options you can turn to correlated markets and stuff like that so it does give you routes if you don't like one market to deviate elsewhere so bars all over uh zero and a half or to get an assist is plus 122 over at randall sportsbook all righty tom hopefully tonight uh goes well for you want to thank you as always for swinging by hopefully the injury report in the nba magically the dust settles by noon and you can have a carefree relaxing wednesday yeah thanks for having me i think it should shape up to be an awesome night across both sportsway some really good matchups uh in the nba along with this rangers leaf scheme i'm expecting to see a lot of goals i hope we do i hope that i can get this bet to go through eventually we'll see no one can say about that but that's tom becchio check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his prop work over at number fire and his nba dfs podcast the daily iso i'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s we are back once again tomorrow with ryan williams to break down the conference championship games that will be a blast make sure you subscribe to get that right as it goes live we'll talk to you tomorrow this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network