 Welcome back to Think Tech, I'm Jay Fidel. This is American Issues Take Two, part of our shows where Trump's GOP continue to support Ukraine even after the midterms. Looking at his disruptions and their unreliability, it seems unlikely they will continue to support Ukraine, but we wanted to get some feedback from our guests on that. So we have Stephanie Dalton, our regular contributor. We have Jeff Portnoy, a special esteemed guest, and Chuck Crumpton, another special esteemed guest. We are very esteemed today. Welcome to you all to the show. We can't have two special esteemed guests. Sorry. Okay, well. Most especially. I'll have to go then. Okay, so I was watching. Trani and Rogers. Faced a nation show with Glenn Junkin in Georgia. Yeah, Virginia, rather, he's the governor of Virginia. And it was a good example, I think, of a sleeper issue. Before he was elected, well, he was running, he had one platform, and then he runs, and he used the Dobs decision as a way to change his platform. So now all of a sudden he's very strongly committed against abortion, walking back his earlier positions. And I think there are a lot of GOP Trumpers who are like that. They don't wanna disrupt their support. They know some issues are dangerous politically, but they just kind of go soft on it. And then when they get elected, you see their crew agenda pop out. I'm not saying it's every issue, and I'm not saying it's every candidate, but it's enough to make a comment about. And so the question is whether Ukraine is one of those sleeper issues. Because right now we seem to be okay in Congress and we're sending money and weapons over there. And Biden is doing his thing about deporting Ukraine. And all that is working. The Ukrainians like it, although they always wish for more. The question I suppose is whether there's another shoot a drop here after the midterms. So let's see, who wants to go first? Raise your hand, you wanna go first? Okay, well, okay, okay, Jeff. Jeff Portnale, you wanna go first? Go ahead. So as an involuntary twitch. No, I don't think it's gonna change. I think Ukraine is an issue in which such an overwhelming majority of the country is in support of the Ukrainians. Even though the pro-Trumpers have had to march in lockstep with their boss and his love of Putin. I think it's clear that other than China, Mongolia and Cuba, Venezuela, the whole world is in support of Ukraine. This country is clearly in support of Ukraine. I think it's a non-issue. And frankly, the way things are going, unless Putin does something very stupid and engages the world in a tactical nuclear war, which I think is not gonna happen no matter how crazy he may be, I think, Jay, that there's not a lot to talk about on this issue. Okay, let's see if we can change your mind. You know, like the history of Trump has been very closely associated with Russia. I mean, his attempt, for example, at corrupting Comey was all about Comey squashing the Russia investigation. He beat impeachment on Russia. He used Bill Barr to scuttle the Mueller report on Russia. He denounced the steel dossier on Russia. He's friendly with Putin all the way through. He's made all these very complimentary remarks, even admiration for Putin all the way through. He had secret conversations with Putin that should have been on the record for an American president. He denounced the American intelligence agencies in favor of Putin. And I mean, I could go on. I mean, he seems to be completely infatuated with Putin as he is with various other autocrats. You'll need to completely go on because you haven't changed my mind. Not at all. I mean, clearly... But first I have to finish, you know. Well, there's not much more you can say, but go ahead. Ah, there's not much more I can say. On this particular issue. Maybe there's something you can say. No, look, look. As I said when I started with the involuntary Twitch, I mean, there's no question about where Trump is. And there will be some people like Marjorie Green and a few other completely irrational, sick human beings that will follow him into the sunset. But the majority of the Republican party, frankly, is not that stupid. The American people are overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Now, if you're asking me whether if Trump gets elected president, what will happen? I will tell you that it won't matter because by 2024, Ukraine will either now be in the hands of Ukraine or a few provinces will be in the hands of Russia and Russia will be back looking for another country to unsuccessfully invade. Okay, Stephanie, why don't you take a whack at Jeff, see if you can at least, you know, soften his position and BS, could you please mention this incredible flag that was shown at the CPAC conference where some woman has a Russian flag with the word Trump on it. And this is sent to us by Adam Kinziger, you remember him from the select committee. So, and this is very revealing because A, she's got the flag and B, nobody is telling her to take it down. You know, this is a statement if you will of the sensibilities at the CPAC conference. And you might also mention to Jeff that right now Trump still has control of the GOP. I don't think there's any question about that. But let's see what you can do to see if you can change Jeff's mind. And if you're not inclined to do that, it's okay. It reinforces Jeff's position on this. Well, I'll take a whack. I mean, Jeff has to know that there's a huge sea change in the MAGA group. And they're absolutely and positively going to interfere with, if not stop, our support of Ukraine. And a lot of it has come on the heels of a Ukrainian representative in the house, whose name is, what is that name? Sparts, she's from Indiana, Republican, of course. And she's herself involved with contractors accusing them of corruption and all kinds of things. And yet she wants to try and make a killing in it for her own, but anyway, she's presented herself as a complete surprise to her fellow Republicans, but they have adjusted to that. And now there are dozens of them that are all about getting off Zelensky. He's just a grandstander. And they don't think that it's worth the US back in them. So I think- Okay, okay, you changed my mind. Let's take a look. It's not just Marjorie Taylor Greene. Your hair will stand on end as mine did when I looked it up when I took a look at it. And the list of the comments from our representatives and senators and others go on for pages about the Zelensky problem, which is now a problem. So we have some, if they win, if this vote comes out as it might, we've got more drama ahead, real serious, difficult drama. So anyway, we're in the game here. The games are being played and there are many games and few that are even matchable or congruent with any principles or rules that we've ever gone by before. Because there was one really crazy lady at the convention with a sign. What does that mean? It means nothing other than there was one- Wait a minute, before you say that, she was at the convention. And if they didn't like the sign, they would have said something. She speaks for the convention. Jay, come on. How can you draw that conclusion? Can you tell me that GOP is into First Amendment now? I'm saying you can't draw that. You sound like MSNBC on steroids. I mean, you can't draw that conclusion because one crazy person, I mean, you can draw the opposite conclusion the other way. I mean, defund the police. I mean, and that's not one person. So you're gonna say that that's the principle of the Democratic Party? I know the Republicans like to say that. I mean, look, there's no question. And I will give Stephanie this and I don't know who they would be other than this one Congress person. There may be 30 completely off their margin, Republican Congress people. All right, the majority are not gonna turn on Ukraine. It's just not, it's not gonna happen. I mean, even Trump has been very quiet because he's dealing with a few other way more important issues. Well, you're right, he's been very quiet and he has not supported Ukraine either, has he? Well, no, he's not gonna support Ukraine. I agree with that. I don't disagree. And being quiet is real bad because he was quiet all between the voting in November and the January 6th event. He was very quiet as far as all of us were concerned out here. So the quiet is very nerve wracking. Well, let's turn to Chuck. Chuck has been listening carefully to all this. Yeah, who's side do you want anyway? Yeah, who's side do you want anyway, Chuck? Well, one of the things the press doesn't spend time and attention on, but it's significant, I think. In the US, there are a lot of people whose genealogy and descendancy they has connections to the Ukraine. And there are also a lot of people who have ties to Russia, but very anti-Pudin Russia. So this is a significant block of people. And they're not characterized as necessarily in Trump's pocket or in the Democrats' pocket or anybody's. And so I think there's room for hesitation. The second thing is Trump is completely self-serving if it doesn't serve his interests. He's not interested in it. And his attention span is minute, to say the least. So he's not invested himself in the war machine. He may have buddies, he may have supporters, but his vision doesn't extend that far. So I don't see Trump being able to influence enough of the actual elected representatives who are Republicans to be able to turn the tide against Ukraine, which is actually winning right now. Why would you do that? That's crazy. Second thing is, remember the Vietnam lessons. The people whose home it is are gonna outlive you and outlast you one way or another with whatever alliances they have. Biden has wisely cast his lot with a unified European support base for the Ukrainian side in the war. There's no, I think Jeff's right, there's no significant political gain in trying to oppose that directly, attacking it by saying, oh, he made a mistake by trying to court Saudi Arabia, look what OPEC plus did, things like that. They will try and poke holes, but I don't see it shifting the momentum in support of the Ukraine, at least in the foreseeable future, during Biden's administration. Stephanie, you have more on this? Well, I just, it depends on what happens with the election. It will shift if enough of them get in and this is spreading and people don't see the point of it. And they're for Putin, they're for Putin. And just as you said, as Trump has influenced the entire MAGA group to be negative towards this effort and it's costing a lot of money, we're gonna hear that go down. And so I don't see, I think that it's naive as we should have learned not to be by now that what portends here is a critical situation for us and that we could lose, we wouldn't be supporting our allies, but we might be put in that position if Biden no longer has control. In other words, the Congress won't allow the money to happen or they get in his way. And that's possible if they get enough people in Congress. So that's what I'm alarmed about, very alarmed and distressed. I wanna throw a couple of issues in the hopper here. Number one is that I don't think that the public sensibility means a whole lot. We have a 70% of the country, maybe more who wants to reverse stops. That's not gonna happen. It's not gonna happen. In fact, there's a fair chance that in the next Congress we'll see a nationwide ban, even though it's supposed to be in a federal diversity, it's a fair chance we'll see a nationwide ban. So what people- By the way, there's no chance. No chance of what? In the next two years of being the nationwide ban on abortion. Okay, well, that's another show. Gonna have it- No, you brought it up, not me. But what I'm saying is I don't really think that Congress is responsive to the people out there. They're much more responsive to Trump, especially if there's a GOP majority in both houses or even in one. And I think we have to factor that in and then look carefully at Trump and his acolytes, who are as strong as a rock right now and gaining, you know? His influence is in a strange, ridiculous way, in these absolutely absurd, unhinged rallies that he does and all his email even, hey, and watch out, because now Elon Musk is gonna buy Twitter, he's gonna have a platform again. You know, Elon has said that, he's gonna give him a platform on Twitter. This is a factor to consider. Anyway, so the other point I wanted to make is this, Trump has a history about Ukraine. Remember, he tried to corrupt Zelensky back with his transactional thing for $400 million when you hit Biden's son, Hunter, was it? And that is really remarkable that he would go all the way to Ukraine. Do you think he's unconscious about Ukraine? He's not. But why, you're assuming that he's gonna be president again. No, I'm not, I'll get to that. I'll get to that. I'm assuming he's in charge of the MAGA crowd. So what's the difference if he's not president? Who cares? The MAGA crowd cares, the GOP cares, that's who cares. And he has a lot of control. This is still logistic, I'm telling you. If I had a chart, I would draw it out and show you the straight line thing. Can you tell me of the 100 and what is it? 90 Republican Congress people? How many do you put in the MAGA camp? How many? Bar, who many? How many? We're gonna take a short break so I can go count. I mean, I got a very nice distraction, but let me go on with my comment. Okay, that's good. No, at some point we have to stop you. No. At some point we have to let the distractions rule the conversation. Where have I heard that before? What I'm saying is that Trump has had a history with Ukraine. He has had a history about attacking Biden, whatever Biden does. He needs to do that for 2024. He's gonna continue to do it. He's gonna have his MAGA crowd do it. I mean, he's been quiet about Ukraine. He hasn't criticized Zelensky, but he also hasn't supported Zelensky, at least with all of it. Jay. Wait, wait, stop. It's time for a distraction. No, I just wanna call a spade by a spade. I have to stop you because... It's an interruption and distraction. Go ahead. I think Mr. Trump will be preoccupied over the next two years with issues far more important to him than Ukraine. Oh, I think this is a delicious issue. Everything that, everything that, right now we're on the top of the world in Ukraine. He's winning, okay? And the news coming out of Ukraine is great. The news coming out of Russia is great. We can't go up from here. We go down from here. You know, it's my fatigue theory of the stock market. Are you ready, Jeff? Can you handle it? Okay. The stock market goes up because it's tired of going down. When it hits the top, okay? It's tired of being at the top and it goes down. It's my fatigue theory. And I think we're gonna get to a fatigue theory in Ukraine. It's gonna be a delicious issue for Trump to focus on and have his mega crowd focus on. But remember, there's something under the hood here. It's more than the golden shower. It's something in the steel dossier. It's why he tried to corrupt James Comey. It's why he tried to corrupt Bill Barr on the Mueller report. He really flimflammed the Mueller report. He made it go away. What was it about? It was about Ukraine. It was about Putin. And what about that first impeachment when she worked so hard to scuttle? It was about Ukraine. It was about Putin. I mean, so remember that Putin has been a war since at least 2014, right? The Winter War, which the Ukrainians beat him at. I mean, this is an ongoing issue and Trump has been involved. Don't also forget that he is was, I don't know if he still is, but he was building a hotel in Moscow, okay? And he had some connection you have to have. You must have a connection with Putin and the oligarchs to build a hotel in Moscow, okay? And that was a big deal. And he lied about it. Remember that? He lied about it over and over and over again. Oh, I have no deals. I have no deals. Trump is connected to Russia. He's connected to the oligarchs. He's connected to Putin. He hasn't been vociferous about it because it's not politically attractive right now, but it's a sleeper issue. And I think if we connect the dots, and I'm digressing my comments to you, Chuck, and you, Stephanie, I've also been given up on Jeff over here. If you connect the dots, you find out that that's gotta be Trump's agenda. And it's not a question of what's good for the country or even what's good for the GOP or how many GOP representatives there are in the House or in the Senate. It's a question of what Trump has on his secret agenda, which he will try to out when it's appropriate. You know, you think it was good that he got involved in his kerfuffle over Mar-a-Lago? No, that's him. It's his agenda. It's not necessarily the GOP. He does his agenda. And part of his agenda is, of course, the autocrats, because he is an autocrat. So, I mean, you know, think of Viktor Orban. Think of Xi. I mean, every autocrat is his, he admires them. And the one he admires most is, guess who? Vladimir Putin. So he's got a relationship. It's personal and it will play out. As to Jeff's question about the numbers, we have to remember how does Trump do all this? His numbers, over 130 people out of the Congress voted to not have Biden be president. So if we just go back to that day and what happened then, and that number has not diminished, that number is just increasing with their getting involved in these other ways of thinking about things in town to be obstreperous and obstructive and how to do whatever kind of drama performance they're trying to do up there to titillate themselves. I don't know what it is, but it doesn't have anything to do with what the people need to have happen there. But this is my point, I guess, to Jeff, is that I'm trying not to be naive about this man and his influence and his influence peddlers who are nowhere even near at his level of skill. I mean, Roger Stone is a kindergartner compared to Trump in this business, obviously, because he's constantly developing more and more change because he has the power to influence people. He's even made all kinds of money over the Mar-a-Laga thing. Anyway, so I just want to say that we can, as all those points Jay made are so correct and important, but you have to stop and think, how is this all happening? And as Jay was saying, it's about Trump paying attention to these things and getting these messages and signals out and shaping his mega mass, mega mass. If Jay has done one thing today, he's reinforced my view that we need to do something about the filibuster rule. Yes. Jay's been trying to filibuster. No, notice how quiet I am. You've got to help me out on this, Joe. He doesn't want to help you out. He's saved. Sorry, I think Jeff's point actually is critical. Look at the key congressional relationships that Trump needs to make things work, Mitch McConnell. McConnell was there before Trump, he's going to be there after Trump, and he knows that. And he's operating about as independently to keep his base with him, whether they're with Trump or not, that's not a requirement to be part of his base. You don't have to be mega. In fact, he's happier to have non-mega people in his base and loyal and a legion than to have mega people because he can't necessarily count on them when the chips are done. He's a pretty good example of what Republicans in Congress are going to have to look to for leadership if there are questions, if there are divisions. And one thing that the Trump has, that the press and the media have not explored is there are serious divisions within the Republican Party, leadership divisions. And McConnell is a really good example of one of them. If anybody thinks he's going to do what Trump wants, if it doesn't serve his own interests, I don't think we're talking about the same Mitch McConnell. So sorry, I can't help you because I don't see Trump's base as expanding. Stephanie makes a good argument that some of those numbers are increasing within the Republican Party, within the Republican primaries. But nationally, let's see what the midterm show. But if Trump has the same level of success in the midterms that he had in the Republican primaries, Stephanie, your argument is one that really should give us all serious concern. I don't think Jeff and I believe that's going to happen. I think you have helped me, Jeff. It's time to vote. The point I would make or I would take from your remarks is this. Yeah, there's an argument between McConnell and Trump right now. That hurts Trump for sure. But we've seen McConnell do a flip-flop before and we know that McConnell's greatest interest, greatest agenda is staying in power in the Senate. And I would venture to say that if Trump has got more power, McConnell, as he has shown in the past, is going to be subordinate to Trump. He's going to follow him. So just as he flipped last time, he's perfectly capable of flipping this time and if Trump shows greater influence on MAGA and in this midterm, no question in my mind that McConnell will suck up to him. Remember too that the objections that McConnell made a week ago were not really directed at Trump. He never attacked Trump per se. And the press was incisive on that. So watch what he says. He didn't really attack Trump. He didn't break it up with Trump. He just disagreed with the one point Trump was trying to push. So the other thing I just want to mention is that Trump is more powerful now and he is going to get more powerful and his agenda clearly is to return to the presidency. That's what it's about for him. That's the big lie. That's what he's been telling all his base, all his MAGA people that he wants to be president. Okay, and everything, I would say everything he does is directed at that. So if one of the things he has to do is attack Biden, he will do it. And if he feels that raising the specter of mistakes by Putin, by Zelensky or somehow elevating Putin, he will do that. It's a question of opportunism. Furthermore, I want to say one other thing and I'll get off, because Jeff has given me a fish eye over here already. You see that January 6th is not over. You don't have to burn the Reichstag more than once. In a great way, January 6th was successful. It demonstrated that there's a lot of people out there who support Trump and who now talk to each other and who are now a community. Whether a few of them, just a few, get prosecuted or not. And so Trump is busy like a beaver all over the country, reinforcing that conspiracy. And he will use it when it suits him. He will use it either politically in various battleground states or battleground streets. He will use it. Don't write him off. He is going great guns. And this issue could fall right in his path. Trump will not be president again, put this tape into the think tech time capsule and we'll open it up in two years, Jay, and we'll see who was right and who was way off. Well, it's digital. I mean, it's either yes or no. Stephanie, do you feel Trump could be president again? I think it all depends actually on this vote. If the Democrats, independents don't come out and the women and take care of business this time with a vote so large that it cannot be disputed to bring Democrats back into the House and Senate, I give up. I think that, and we've even got Liz Cheney out there saying she's gonna vote for Democrats and she's trying to convince Republicans to vote for Democrats. And if we don't get that effect, then this whole country has tipped. It's tipped and it's not what we were or what our papers say we wanna be or we're trying to be. So I'm very nervous about this, but hearing Jeff be so serious and definite about it, that's encouraging. And I hope they're like 300 million other people that will do that. Well, the problem is that of the 300 million people forget about all of this. They're isolationists in large part. That's why you can appeal to them. They're nationalistic. They couldn't give a rip what happens in Europe or Asia. And that's the nature of the American ethic, I'm sorry. And so you can turn them against Ukraine in no time at all. But I just got off a river cruise from Pittsburgh to St. Louis through a bunch of small towns and not so small towns like Cincinnati and Louisville, Pittsburgh, St. Louis. And folks, we don't have a clue, those of us living on the coast as to what the whole middle of America is like and thinking. And it's in bad shape. Like what? Storefront after storefront is empty. People are all white with a couple of enclaves of Asians or more importantly, Latinos or blacks. The coasts don't have a clue, as I've said repeatedly on these shows, as to what's going on between the mountain ranges, the Allegheny and the Rockies. And I now have a much better appreciation of really where this country is politically. Well, what is your appreciation? For having spent 10 days in small towns of America. What are they saying? Or communities that have lost one factory after another. It's not pretty. What are they saying? Basically what I just said, they're trying to keep their communities alive with nothing. I mean, you go along the Mississippi, you see one abandoned factory after another all the way through the Midwest. Doesn't that make them more amenable to Trump? Yeah, no, I think that's, you're right. Well, not to Trump, but I think to the Republican party and the issues the Republican party are using in this election. I mean, what it's come down to and I understand it. I watched, I can't tell you how many ads in the last two weeks from Pennsylvania to now I'm in Colorado. And every Democratic ad says nothing about anything other than abortion. Not one. Every Republican ad is on gasoline prices, inflation, the loss of jobs. We'll see which one wins out. I'm not that optimistic. Well, the problem- No, it's hard to be optimistic about the midterms, for sure. But when you say that Trump could never win in 2024, you are being optimistic. Well, because I think there are more evil Republican candidates who will likely be nominated. Yes. So, Chuck, you know, you've got to help us out on this, make some sense of it. You don't have to agree with me. You do have to agree with Stephanie though. And Jeff is going all directions now. I think we got him on the run. So, what's your summary on all of this, Chuck? Now, I think Stephanie and Jeff and you, in a different way, have really nailed it. The question is, where is the middle of the country going to go in these midterms? If they give ringing endorsements at the level of the Republican primaries in the midterms to mega candidates, that portends a really, really dark direction for this country. We have to hope that women, Black, Latinx, Asian, LGBTQ, young and other voters who have some sense of the threat to their lives and livelihoods that this portends will come out and vote if they can, even with the restrictions, the repressions and the voting controls put in place in 19 different states. What is your expectation or prediction as to whether the Ukraine issue will become an issue that's been, that will emerge for the GOP, the MAGA GOP? I tend to agree with Jeff. I don't see it as more than a bargaining chip. Until after the 2024 elections, the presidential elections, I don't think there's any question that the Republicans will use it as a bargaining chip to get other concessions in any way they can on any issue they can. But I don't see that happening unless and until a MAGA shift moves into the 2024 elections as well. Okay, Jeff, what message would you leave? What prediction would you make about whether this will become either in the short term, the intermediate term, the long term, a Republican issue? As I said when we started, I don't think Ukraine will ever become a negative political issue. By that I mean I do not think this country will ever turn around and support a Russian invasion of any country no matter who the president is, no matter who's controlling Congress. I don't disagree that Trump has a relationship with Russia just like he has with North Korea. And I don't see the Republicans in Congress telling North Korea to go ahead and invade Taiwan. So I don't see it as an issue that I'm concerned about. A lot more that concerns me than the possibilities the Republicans turn their back on Ukraine. All right, Stephanie, same question. What's your expectation that this will become an issue for the MAGA Trumps? I fear that it will become an issue and it'll bleed out from MAGA to the rest of the Republicans. Now the Republicans can run these ads on all the issues, the inflation, the gas, the food, the et cetera. But they don't come out and say anything about what they're going to do about it. And then when they get in office, they don't do anything about it. So Hooray Biden is going out and saying, I did this, I did that, and I hope he keeps on doing that because that needs to come across that yes those people in the middle of the country, they're still getting their checks. They're still getting their social security. They've got lots of benefits coming because of the Biden administration, i.e. Democrats. Who solves the problems and helps people out? The Democrats. And if nobody can get that yet and see the difference and understand what asking for people to pay attention to this dobs decision of the Supreme Court, then we're a different country. We're going someplace else than we all thought or Jefferson Madison and Washington and all those people thought we were going. Yeah, I agree with that absolutely. I want to add one thought and that is the expectations are more short term. I think this is going to come up and soon. I think this is a fresh meat issue. I think that the MAGA Trumps are going to raise this soon. They're going to wait for any moment where Zelensky's falters or Biden falters in supporting Zelensky or whether the EU falters, France, Italy or especially Italy right now where you have a fascist prime minister. That's new. And any one of those things could offer an opportunity for Trump to get his people wired up against Zelensky or to say we supported you up to this point but now things have changed and we really have to rethink our position on Ukraine. It doesn't have to be necessarily supporting Putin but I think it will be a change and we have to rethink this and Biden is wrong about this, that and the other thing I think that's coming soon. It might even be for the midterms. You'll see and lunch to any one of you who wants to take me up on it. Including you, Jeff. Thanks for inviting me. I appreciate it. Okay, Jeff Portnoy, Chuck Grumpton, Stephanie Stahl-Dolton, thank you so much for joining us today for this very, this very rancorous discussion. Let me know the next issue you and I can disagree with. I'll be available. I think we can do that on a great number of things. I think. Aloha.