 Welcome traders to another click me a weekly market outlook for we commencing the 18th of July with me Patrick Mullerley Okay, let's jump into the US data calendar for the week ahead and see what we've got on board. We have Monday July LHA be housing price index last time printed 67 this time consensus looks for a 66 print Outlook for builders to deteriorate given the rates and market uncertainty heading it's Tuesday Another bunch of housing stats June housing starts last time out minus 14.4 percent Actually looking for a positive 2.7 percent print this time input supply the primary constraint for current construction Tighter financial conditions are obviously continued to weigh on the pipeline So in terms of the other print we get we get June Building permits last time out minus seven percent looking for a minus one point seven percent given those tighter financial Conditions heading into Wednesday. We get June existing home sales last time negative 3.4 percent looking for a negative zero point two percent affordability locking many out of the market in the US Thursday July Philly Fed index last time negative 3.3 percent looking for a positive one point seven Regional surveys have deteriorated materially of late And then we also get initial jobless claims remaining near historic load Printing 244 K last week June leading index last time negative 0.4 percent looking for a negative 0.5 percent as the growth outlook in the US continues to deteriorate and then we round out the week on Friday with Manufacturing PMIs looking for a 51 print versus the 52.7 last time broad based deterioration in activity across the cross industry and services looks to be heading in Downwards in the US. We're looking for the global services PMI to print a 52 versus a 52.7 last time out Okay, so that's the fundamental drivers. Let's take a little bit of technical setup for the week ahead Dollar index held our resistance area 108 70s 108 77 in spite of it. Hi, but closed on Friday down Into below 108 handle. I've actually flipped the five period volume-weighted average price negative as well now bearish So I'm looking for a three-way corrected moves back into tests the 106 106 50 area from there Watch for bullish reversal patterns to re-engage on the long sides And we are looking for a price then to move up to test the one 10 handle at this stage It would really take a loss This internal trend line support back through 105 50 says suggests we have a more meaningful high in place Heading into the eurozone We are looking at Tuesday to get June CPI looking for Zero point eight percent print there the final print for months driven by soaring food and energy prices And then heading into Wednesday. We get July consumer confidence last time negative 23.6 looking for a negative 25 energy security and inflation weighing heavily on confidence and then the all-important Thursday for the eurozone with the ECB policy decision Re-fired rate widely expected to be raised for the first time in 11 years It's going to be the real market event next week. So all eyes are going to be on that On that release expect ECB to fiercely debate whether the first hiking in 11 years will be just 25 basis points or Perhaps 50 basis points after all also key out of next week's meeting will be the anti fragmentation tool Which investors will watch closely to see how robust it can be to curb spreads in the eurozone with Italian political problems Servicing again an additional challenge is added to next week's meeting While some of meetings at the ECB can be dull This one clearly won't be also important is how much the economy is cooling off in the eurozone next week's PMIs I'm going to help to give a read on that So heading into Friday we get those all important PMIs looking for a 51 versus a 52 point one last time out supply and Cost pressures weighing on manufacturing activity and also as services lose momentum from inflation fears Looking for the services to print 52 versus a 53 and that rounds out the data for next week in terms of the eurozone So let's take a look at the technical setup for the euro Euro on Friday closed One point zero zero eight eight and it has flipped the daily volume waiting average price bullish So we're looking for a three-way corrective move into test the 102 area from there I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns to re-engage on the short side Targeting move down to test the 97 70s which coincides with the 97 67 Yearly s3 from there I'll be watching for a more sustained corrective move to play out Now heading to the UK Let's take a look what we've got on deck there We have July right move house prices on Monday 0.3% demand is softening as these rates I start to take effect Tuesday we get the May ILO and employment rates 3.8% last time looking for a 3.9% holding near pre-pandemic levels there and heading into Wednesday We get a UK CPI 0.7% last time looking for a drop here 0.5% energy really remains the key driver there and We round out the week in the UK on Friday with GFK consumer sentiment Negative 41 last time confidence has collapsed in the UK amid inflation pressures really restricts and consumer spending activities So we're looking for a decline in Small positive in terms of retail sales 0.1% and then we get manufacturing PMI 52 services PMI 54 UK manufacturing and services to face a sharp slowdown over the course of 2022 so from a technical perspective The selling is trading in this wedge. I'm looking for a test into the 117 I want to see momentum divergers maintain foolish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side looking for a move up to test 120 15 120 70 on the upside from there and watching for bearish reversal patterns to re-engage on the short side Ultimately, they're looking to move down to test 115 at this stage We really need to see a close through the training channel resistance here So a close above 121 to suggest we have a more meaningful low in place In Japan next week, let's see what's on the data slate We start the week really at the end of the week with the June CPI release on Friday and 2.5% last time looking for a 2.4% this time services PMI is 54 last Manufacturing PMI 52.7 easing of health restrictions probably supporting services, but supply issues Post near-term risk to the manufacturing print there in Japan. So from a technical perspective It's also a holiday on Monday in Tokyo. So we're anticipating a bit of limited limited training terms of the dollar yen as we start the week But I'm looking for any move that tests and holds this trend line support on 3760s for an extension up to get Ding there for 140 and from there I'm looking for a more sustained Corrective move to play out three ways back into test this high-volume node at the 135 Handle before looking for the next leg to the upside any early loss of this trend line support at 137 Also, then I've been looking to engage on the short side Tungting that move back down to 135 and Running out a week down under in Australia What do we have Tuesday with the RBA minutes? We're looking for some color around that July 15 basis point hike and what are the risks to the outlook? We also get RBA deputy governor Bullock speaking at some ESA business lunch on Tuesday and then heading into Wednesday We get RBA governor low speaking Australia's shift leading business forum get June Westpac MI leading index last time zero point five eight percent losing altitude rapidly But still tracking just above trend and that rounds out the data in terms of Australia next week from a technical perspective The Aussie dollar in this wedge if we can break here, then I'm looking for a three-way corrective move up into the high-volume node 171 80 ideally I would like to see the height of the equality objective 166 15 properly tested first so if we hold this trend line resistors and get that moved down Once again, I've been looking to engage on the long side looking for a minimum three-way corrective move into that weekly high-volume node 171 70s and that concludes the weekly market outlook for We commencing the 18th of July will just wrap up actually. We're taking a quick look at Bitcoin Bitcoin sitting at that trend line resistance now So this is going to be key if we hold trend line resistance and take out this trend line support through that 19,500 level of a closing basis Then we are targeting that 12,185 major weekly equality objective and just below there We have the high-volume node 9,300 17 now if we could take out this trend line resistance on a closing basis Then we can see a more protracted corrective move probably something in major to what? What we saw before that row over at the beginning of June so we can anticipate more sideways action here We really need to see a close strong close back through 22,000 to start to think about a more significant corrective phase developing in Bitcoin Okay traders as always plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk is on next week. Thanks very much